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Mulally: Boeing To Keep Improving 777  
User currently offlineLeelaw From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Posted (8 years 5 months 1 week 6 days 20 hours ago) and read 9137 times:

From James Wallace/Seattle PI (Fair Use Excerpt):

Mulally lays out strategy in face of Airbus challenge

"...From what we have seen, continuously improving the 777 will be our strategy in the near future," said Alan Mulally, president and chief executive of Boeing Commercial Airplanes.

Technology being developed for the 787 will find its way onto the 777, which the company has no plans to replace, he said...

...In the interview with the Seattle P-I, Mulally made it clear that Boeing will not stand still while Airbus develops the A350.

The 777 engines and systems can be improved, he said. There will be opportunities to use more composite material, as well as more titanium and new alloys of aluminum.

Boeing also will continue to improve the manufacturing process, Mulally said. Boeing is converting the 777 assembly line at its Everett plant to a moving production line. The more efficient moving line system is used for the 737 in Renton.

Mulally noted that Boeing "has a lot of time" to make these improvements...


http://seattlepi.nwsource.com/business/278165_mulally20.html

Perhaps it will be harder to "kill" the 777 than Mr. Leahy implied on Monday?

[Edited 2006-07-20 10:11:13]

45 replies: All unread, showing first 25:
 
User currently offlineJohnny From Sweden, joined Jan 2008, 0 posts, RR: 0
Reply 1, posted (8 years 5 months 1 week 6 days 20 hours ago) and read 9107 times:

Perhaps it will be harder to explain the customers why Boeing needs an updated B777 and a big B787-version?

Why not planning a B787-10x to replace the B777-200LR ?

Airbus is planning a A350-900 and A350-900R,plus A350-900F.

So why has the B787 not the potential to grow the same way?

It would mean Boeing customers have to stick with two families, Airbus customers with one family.

And in the past we all have seen how successful Airbus was with their one-family for longhaul concept - the A330/340

[Edited 2006-07-20 10:17:53]

User currently offlineDAL767400ER From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 2, posted (8 years 5 months 1 week 6 days 20 hours ago) and read 9024 times:

Quoting Johnny (Reply 1):
Perhaps it will be harder to explain the customers why Boeing needs an updated B777 and a big B787-version?

Different markets, and the fact that not every 777 customer will also order 787s and vice-versa.

Quoting Johnny (Reply 1):
Why not planning a B787-10x to replace the B777-200LR ?

Because the ULH market is limited as it is, and the market would not be worth it for Boeing to launch a second ULH plane within such a short timespan.

Quoting Johnny (Reply 1):
Airbus is planning a A350-900 and A350-900R,plus A350-900F.

And? The A345 got it's a$$ handed to it by the 772LR performance-wise, of course Airbus has to react.

Quoting Johnny (Reply 1):
So why has the B787 not the potential to grow the same way?

Why should it when the market, as said, for such a ULH version is very limited, whereas the demand for the current versions of the 787 is enormous?

Quoting Johnny (Reply 1):
It would mean Boeing customers have to stick with two families, Airbus customers with one family.

BS. Can the A350 fully replace 773/ERs or A346s? No, it can't, so that means even Airbus customers like VS, IB or SAA, would still need 2 plane families.
And at the same time, Boeing carriers like AA, CO or DL could easily replace their 767s AND 777s with just 787s, and voila, they have just 1 family. So much simplifying things  Yeah sure .

Quoting Johnny (Reply 1):
And in the past we all have seen how successful Airbus was with their one-family for longhaul concept - the A330/340

So that is why so many carriers like LH, EK, QR, SAA and more operate A330s alongside A340s? Oh wait, there's no more, that's all of them. And nevermind carrier like AF or CZ which operate 777s alongside A330s.


User currently offlinePavlin From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 3, posted (8 years 5 months 1 week 6 days 19 hours ago) and read 8935 times:

I think Boeing wll launch 787-10X (but it will replace 777-200ER, not 200LR) in short period of time. It amazes me why haven't they done so since 777-200ER isn't selling so well.

User currently offlineSlz396 From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 4, posted (8 years 5 months 1 week 6 days 19 hours ago) and read 8900 times:

Quoting DAL767400ER (Reply 2):
So that is why so many carriers like LH, EK, QR, SAA and more operate A330s alongside A340s? Oh wait, there's no more, that's all of them.

I was under the impression that in Europe alone:
AF
LX
NM
OS
SK
TK
TP
also operate both A330 and A340 alongside...


User currently offlineJohnny From Sweden, joined Jan 2008, 0 posts, RR: 0
Reply 5, posted (8 years 5 months 1 week 6 days 19 hours ago) and read 8892 times:

@DAL767-400ER

You did not get my point at all.Probably i should write german...Just jokin...

See what i mean:

B787-8/-9 - A350-800
B777-200ER - B787-10 - A350-900
B777-200LR - A350-900R
B777-200F - A350-900F
B777-300ER - A350-1000 (and be sure there will a -1100! )

So Boeing will have two families with following members:

-B777-200LR/LRF/300ER ( modernized versions )

-B787-8,-9,10

Airbus will only have one BIG familiy :
-A350-800,-900,-900R,900F,-1000 plus probably a -1100

That saves a lot of money for the airlines!

And your list of operators of both A330 and 340 is not really complete...
You forgot for example AF,SK,Air Europa,AUA,Air Madrid,CX,Air China,Egypt Air,China Eastern...

 Smile


User currently offlineChiad From Norway, joined May 2006, 1188 posts, RR: 0
Reply 6, posted (8 years 5 months 1 week 6 days 19 hours ago) and read 8866 times:

Johnny has a point there.
Wow .. looking at it this way Airbus might be doing something awesome here!
Thanks for the insight Johnny.


User currently offlineDLPMMM From United States of America, joined Apr 2005, 3602 posts, RR: 10
Reply 7, posted (8 years 5 months 1 week 6 days 17 hours ago) and read 8638 times:

Not quite

Boeing Airbus

787-3 Nothing

787-8 Nothing

787-9 A350-800

787-10/772ER A350-900

777-200LR A350-900R

777-200F A350-900F

777-300 A350-1000

This is more like the actual competitive match-up.


User currently offlineSlz396 From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 8, posted (8 years 5 months 1 week 6 days 16 hours ago) and read 8521 times:

Quoting DLPMMM (Reply 7):

787-3 vs. Nothing

787-8 vs. Nothing

Indeed, but just to put this 'hole' in the product line somewhat in perspective:

Over the past 10 years or so, Airbus has not been selling any planes in either of these 2 categories (other than the odd ageing A310/A300 which dates from a different era of aviation), so Airbus not offering anything in those categories for the future mustn't be a bad thing for them really.

At first sight, it might sound rather conflicting to hear Airbus say there is no market when Boeing forecasts roughly 1,500 planes over the next 20 years in this segment, but actually it doesn't, because this really is an exceptional market.

The reason this market segment truly is exceptional, in that it sees a huge concentration in one area of the world: the USA. Bearing in mind half of this market segment is fully blocked off for Airbus because CO, AA, DL, (JL) etc simply won't even consider ordering from Airbus no matter what, the European manufacturer can realistically only hope to win a market share of roughly 50% of what I'd call 'the remaining free market which is open to competition', meaning at best 300 to 400 planes.

Now, is this worth going after? At guaranteed rock bottom prices because Boeing can drop the prices really low thanks to their guaranteed larger market share? Or can Airbus better give away those poor 300 or so planes to Boeing as well and make use of the fact Boeing positioned their 787 somewhat at the lower of the wide body market to effectively also replace those 1,100 to 1,200 guaranteed (and potentially 1,500) planes and come with a slightly bigger equally efficient plane which attacks the much older 777 as well and for which Boeing has no clear answer other than maybe this 777lite which is/was the topic of this discussion?

[Edited 2006-07-20 14:37:14]

User currently offlineF14ATomcat From United States of America, joined Jun 2006, 88 posts, RR: 0
Reply 9, posted (8 years 5 months 1 week 6 days 15 hours ago) and read 8372 times:

Quoting Johnny (Reply 1):

Airbus is planning a A350-900 and A350-900R,plus A350-900F.

Again Airbus is planing this and Airbus is planning that. So what. They have lost credibility so no one who is serious about performance is going to bite on anything Leahy says, except cheerleaders for A, and non-discrimate consumers. 10 to 1 says Leahys' big mouth promised A-380 performance numbers without consulting engineering.


User currently offlineDfwRevolution From United States of America, joined Jan 2010, 1001 posts, RR: 51
Reply 10, posted (8 years 5 months 1 week 6 days 15 hours ago) and read 8292 times:

Quoting Slz396 (Reply 8):
Over the past 10 years or so, Airbus has not been selling any planes in either of these 2 categories (other than the odd ageing A310/A300 which dates from a different era of aviation), so Airbus not offering anything in those categories for the future mustn't be a bad thing for them really.

Or more likely its because they can't build an A350 variant that small without sacraficing seat/mile cost. Boeing has already sold more than 300+ 787-3/8

Quoting Slz396 (Reply 8):
The reason this market segment truly is exceptional, in that it sees a huge concentration in one area of the world: the USA.

That's ironic, given that the 787-3/8 only has two U.S. customers for a combine 38 aircraft while the rest of the world has ordered a 274.

Quoting Slz396 (Reply 8):
Bearing in mind half of this market segment is fully blocked off for Airbus because CO, AA, DL, (JL) etc simply won't even consider ordering from Airbus no matter what,

Oh but where to begin with such ignorance...

Quoting Slz396 (Reply 8):
At guaranteed rock bottom prices because Boeing can drop the prices really low thanks to their guaranteed larger market share?

Who garuntees that? Boeing charged arms, legs, and first-born children for the 777 because it was the best product and Boeing knew it. If Airbus ceeds this market niche to Boeing, then bend over and get ready to take-it.

Quoting Slz396 (Reply 8):
Or can Airbus better give away those poor 300 or so planes to Boeing as well and make use of the fact Boeing positioned their 787 somewhat at the lower of the wide body market to effectively also replace those 1,100 to 1,200 guaranteed (and potentially 1,500) planes and come with a slightly bigger equally efficient plane which attacks the much older 777 as well and for which Boeing has no clear answer other than maybe this 777lite which is/was the topic of this discussion?

Boeing does have an answer for the 772ER. It's called the 787-10, and it's a lot closer to reality than anything we've heard this week from the Airbus camp.


User currently offlineYULYMX From Canada, joined May 2006, 977 posts, RR: 1
Reply 11, posted (8 years 5 months 1 week 6 days 15 hours ago) and read 8260 times:

Quoting Slz396 (Reply 4):

Even Air Canada use both, A343, A330


User currently offlineAirMailer From United States of America, joined May 2006, 481 posts, RR: 0
Reply 12, posted (8 years 5 months 1 week 6 days 15 hours ago) and read 8237 times:

Quoting Pavlin (Reply 3):
It amazes me why haven't they done so since 777-200ER isn't selling so well.

Didn't you just answer your own question?
Why would they kill their 772ER product that they can sell someone today for a 7810 product that they can't deliver until 2010 or so?

-- just a thought.

Quoting Johnny (Reply 5):
(and be sure there will a -1100! )

... and so maybe you should also be sure that there will be a 787-11 or 777-400ER some day (say around 2009).


User currently offlineDAL767400ER From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 13, posted (8 years 5 months 1 week 6 days 14 hours ago) and read 8133 times:

Quoting Slz396 (Reply 4):

Eh, I shouldn't be posting under 35C° anymore, can't think clearly under such circumstances.

Quoting Johnny (Reply 5):
Probably i should write german

Then your post would be deleted for violating rule 3, paragraph 27, sentence 378, "Though shalt only reply in English"  Silly .

Quoting Johnny (Reply 5):
plus probably a -1100

Before that happens Boeing will launch a 79.9-meter long 777-400(ER), neither of which is even remotely realistic.

Quoting Slz396 (Reply 8):
The reason this market segment truly is exceptional, in that it sees a huge concentration in one area of the world: the USA

TWO main areas: USA and Japan!

Quoting DfwRevolution (Reply 10):
That's ironic, given that the 787-3/8 only has two U.S. customers for a combine 38 aircraft while the rest of the world has ordered a 274.

For now, and that can at least partially be blamed on the financial situation of most US carriers.

Quoting DfwRevolution (Reply 10):
Quoting Slz396 (Reply 8):
Bearing in mind half of this market segment is fully blocked off for Airbus because CO, AA, DL, (JL) etc simply won't even consider ordering from Airbus no matter what,
Oh but where to begin with such ignorance...

If you refer to his "half of this market segment", I agree, but he does have a point about said carriers not even considering ordering Airbus. Of course, they will publicly say that they consider Airbus as well (like Whitehurst (DL COO) recently did), but fact is that most of that is just talk to get a better deal from Boeing.


User currently offlineAirFrnt From United States of America, joined Jul 2004, 2830 posts, RR: 42
Reply 14, posted (8 years 5 months 1 week 6 days 14 hours ago) and read 8060 times:

Quoting Slz396 (Reply 8):
Indeed, but just to put this 'hole' in the product line somewhat in perspective:

Over the past 10 years or so, Airbus has not been selling any planes in either of these 2 categories (other than the odd ageing A310/A300 which dates from a different era of aviation), so Airbus not offering anything in those categories for the future mustn't be a bad thing for them really.

At first sight, it might sound rather conflicting to hear Airbus say there is no market when Boeing forecasts roughly 1,500 planes over the next 20 years in this segment, but actually it doesn't, because this really is an exceptional market.

The reason this market segment truly is exceptional, in that it sees a huge concentration in one area of the world: the USA. Bearing in mind half of this market segment is fully blocked off for Airbus because CO, AA, DL, (JL) etc simply won't even consider ordering from Airbus no matter what, the European manufacturer can realistically only hope to win a market share of roughly 50% of what I'd call 'the remaining free market which is open to competition', meaning at best 300 to 400 planes.

Now, is this worth going after? At guaranteed rock bottom prices because Boeing can drop the prices really low thanks to their guaranteed larger market share? Or can Airbus better give away those poor 300 or so planes to Boeing as well and make use of the fact Boeing positioned their 787 somewhat at the lower of the wide body market to effectively also replace those 1,100 to 1,200 guaranteed (and potentially 1,500) planes and come with a slightly bigger equally efficient plane which attacks the much older 777 as well and for which Boeing has no clear answer other than maybe this 777lite which is/was the topic of this discussion?

Do you really believe that there are no A300s, A310s (which sorry to say, do in fact compete in these markets and have been getting drubbed) outside of America?

Do you really believe that Airbus can afford to walk away from half of the world wide market for widebody lift, simply because it it's an American market? Or that they can ignore the trend of routes fragmenting to the smallest airplane that can fly a route with a competitive CASM?

Do you really think that despite the fact that the American carriers are not ordering the 787 right now for financial reasons, the 787-8 being the most popular order, accounting for over 80% of the orders for what has so far been the fastest selling widebody ever is just a fluke?

Da Nile... Not just a river in Egypt anymore.

Quoting Johnny (Reply 5):

B787-8/-9 - A350-800
B777-200ER - B787-10 - A350-900
B777-200LR - A350-900R
B777-200F - A350-900F
B777-300ER - A350-1000 (and be sure there will a -1100! )

Other people have already pointed out that the A350 does not compete with the 787-8 any more then the A380 competes with a 737. As for a 1100, Airbus has already streched this model to the outside boundries of how long it can get before it starts to loose singificant efficency just by aerodynamics. That's the price you pay for slotting between two aircraft families.


This is the real reason why Airbus isn't challanging the 787 directly. They can't make a model that competes with both the 777 and 787 efficiently. Since the 340 is pretty much dead as last nights steak, competing with the 777 is a bigger threat now then the 787 is in 4 years.


User currently offlineFlyingHippo From United States of America, joined Aug 2005, 712 posts, RR: 1
Reply 15, posted (8 years 5 months 1 week 6 days 14 hours ago) and read 8026 times:

Quoting DAL767400ER (Reply 2):
So that is why so many carriers like LH, EK, QR, SAA and more operate A330s alongside A340s? Oh wait, there's no more, that's all of them. And nevermind carrier like AF or CZ which operate 777s alongside A330s.

CX and CI also have 330/340 operating together.

Quoting Johnny (Reply 5):
Airbus will only have one BIG familiy :
-A350-800,-900,-900R,900F,-1000 plus probably a -1100

Let's not forget that producing only ONE family of planes to cover such a wide range does not guarantee success. To remind you, Airbus do have something similar right now... the A330 and the A340.

A330 is one of the best selling planes, and has earned it's merits, but look at its bigger siblings... 342 is a flop, no one can argue against that. A343 is dead after a few bright years. A345 got killed by 772LR, so did A346 after 773ER proved it's capabilities.

So, one might say that if Airbus produced TWO family of airplanes to cover mid-high density, mid-long range markets, the A340 might have a longer life span than today.

Boeing produced the 777 to cover high density - mid to long range market, and the long range product is a much better seller (772ER/LR, 773ER). The 787 will cover the mid-size, mid to long range market... and it has the potential to cover the 757, 767, A300/310, and A332/333/343 markets... That's a pretty big range!

777 and 787, two customized planes that targets two specific markets, more tailor made for it's customers and markets for greater savings.


User currently offlineEI321 From Iraq, joined Jul 2009, 0 posts, RR: 0
Reply 16, posted (8 years 5 months 1 week 6 days 14 hours ago) and read 8009 times:

Quoting DfwRevolution (Reply 10):
Quoting Slz396 (Reply 8):
Bearing in mind half of this market segment is fully blocked off for Airbus because CO, AA, DL, (JL) etc simply won't even consider ordering from Airbus no matter what,

Oh but where to begin with such ignorance...

Why shrug it off, its the truth.

Quoting DfwRevolution (Reply 10):
Boeing does have an answer for the 772ER. It's called the 787-10, and it's a lot closer to reality than anything we've heard this week from the Airbus camp.

So why has neither a decision or announcement taken place.

Quoting DLPMMM (Reply 7):
787-8 Nothing

This is the case if you presume the 788 as being an 8 abreast seater. In reality, only a few of the 43 customers to date have said that they will go for 8-abreast.


User currently offline787engineer From United States of America, joined Dec 2005, 572 posts, RR: 15
Reply 17, posted (8 years 5 months 1 week 6 days 13 hours ago) and read 7869 times:

Quoting Johnny (Reply 1):
And in the past we all have seen how successful Airbus was with their one-family for longhaul concept - the A330/340

Yet the A330/A340 family didn't cover the 210-250 capacity or the 330+ capacity, at least not efficiently.

Quoting Johnny (Reply 5):

B787-8/-9 - A350-800



Quoting Johnny (Reply 5):
B777-300ER - A350-1000 (and be sure there will a -1100! )

Airbus designed the A350XWB to go after both the 787 and the 777, so the biggest A350XWB, the -1000, is as big as they can stretch the plane, while remaining efficient. If they could've efficiently stretched the -1000 to carry 375+ pax they would have. That's not to say there won't every be a -1100, history does repeat itself, a la the A346  Wink.

Quoting Johnny (Reply 5):
Airbus will only have one BIG familiy :
-A350-800,-900,-900R,900F,-1000 plus probably a -1100

That saves a lot of money for the airlines!

Not if it doesn't cover the capacities they need. There are still gaps (210-270 and 350-500) that the A350 does not cover, and Airbus would be at a disadvantage with any airline that needs planes in those capacities. If airline A buys the 787-8/-3 to fill the short-haul or 210-250 pax need, why would they buy an A358 or A359, when they can maintain a lot of commonality by buying the 787-9/-10. If they need an even larger plane they can buy the A350-1000, but that would limit their 'growth', in the case the airline ever needs even bigger planes. That's the problem with a single family that's "in the middle". If airline A needs more capacity they can always go with the 773 or 748. Now if airline B decides that for the next 20 years or so they only need 300 pax aircraft (no 210-270 or 350+) then the A350XWB would be perfect for them. I think most airlines would prefer the flexibility.

Quoting Slz396 (Reply 8):
Over the past 10 years or so, Airbus has not been selling any planes in either of these 2 categories (other than the odd ageing A310/A300 which dates from a different era of aviation), so Airbus not offering anything in those categories for the future mustn't be a bad thing for them really.

Yet there's a pretty clear demand for planes in this category. The 787-3/-8 will replace all those aging 757s/767s that are being moved from domestic to international routes, as airlines try to maximize their capabilites to their aircraft. I mean just consider the number of 737s that are flying internationally now, and the ever-increasing number of "relatively" smaller jets 737/757 flying overseas with ETOPS.

Quoting DAL767400ER (Reply 13):
TWO main areas: USA and Japan!

Correction: USA and Asia

Quoting AirFrnt (Reply 14):
As for a 1100, Airbus has already streched this model to the outside boundries of how long it can get before it starts to loose singificant efficency just by aerodynamics.

 checkmark 

Quoting EI321 (Reply 16):

This is the case if you presume the 788 as being an 8 abreast seater. In reality, only a few of the 43 customers to date have said that they will go for 8-abreast.

Last I checked the number was about 60-70% of carriers will be going 9Y. But even at 9Y the 787-8 is only a 230-250 pax airplane, compared to the A350XWB-800 which is 270+. Going from 8Y to 9Y in three classes will only add ~20 seats on the 787.


User currently offlineSlz396 From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 18, posted (8 years 5 months 1 week 6 days 12 hours ago) and read 7782 times:

Quoting DAL767400ER (Reply 13):
Do you really think that despite the fact that the American carriers are not ordering the 787 right now for financial reasons, the 787-8 being the most popular order, accounting for over 80% of the orders for what has so far been the fastest selling widebody ever is just a fluke?



Quoting DfwRevolution (Reply 10):
That's ironic, given that the 787-3/8 only has two U.S. customers for a combine 38 aircraft while the rest of the world has ordered a 274.

Think about it for a second before you start attacking me:

According to Boeing, the market for planes like the 787-3/-8 is said to be 1,500 copies (most of which are pretty much reaching the end of their useful life early next decade), of which roughly half is US based (and I hope you agree with me are pretty much blocked off for Airbus). That means on the international forum, Boeing has about 700 to 800 planes to replace.

Now, so far the 787-3/-8 has won 274 orders from these 800 in total. What does that proof then? So far nothing. You will see Boeing win more international orders, and then in a few years time secure many hunderds of domestic 787-3/-8 orders, thus proving my point exactly, which is Airbus can realistically only hope for 300 to 400 customers for their competing product (i.e. 50% of the really free market).

Quoting 787engineer (Reply 17):
There's a pretty clear demand for planes in this category. The 787-3/-8 will replace all those aging 757s/767s.

Correction, there is a clear demand for a BOEING plane in this category, which is why Boeing rightfully answers to this demand. However, the demand for an AIRBUS plane in this same category is much smaller and does not justify the investment.

If you don't believe me, just do this out of curiosity:
How many 757s are flying with US based airlines? And how many are flying with non-US airlines? Divide these two figures and repeat the same exercise for any other Boeing product and you will start to see why the market of the 787-3/-8 is a very special one.

[Edited 2006-07-20 18:41:12]

User currently offlineBoeing7E7 From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 19, posted (8 years 5 months 1 week 6 days 12 hours ago) and read 7774 times:

Quoting Leelaw (Thread starter):
Perhaps it will be harder to "kill" the 777 than Mr. Leahy implied on Monday?

Yup.

Quoting Johnny (Reply 1):
Perhaps it will be harder to explain the customers why Boeing needs an updated B777 and a big B787-version?

This market segment does not "require" a full update today. The aircraft is less than 20 years old and the 350 doesn't even go near impacting the market the way the 787 does for the 767/330 market.

Quoting Johnny (Reply 1):
Why not planning a B787-10x to replace the B777-200LR ?

Because Y3 will more than take care of that issue. The 787 was not designed to replace the 777. It was designed to replace the 767, and as it be crush the 330.

Quoting Johnny (Reply 1):
Airbus is planning a A350-900 and A350-900R,plus A350-900F.

And Boeing already has the 777-200 cargo variant. What's your point?

Quoting Johnny (Reply 1):
So why has the B787 not the potential to grow the same way?

It's not designed to.

Quoting Johnny (Reply 1):
It would mean Boeing customers have to stick with two families, Airbus customers with one family.

One family? What aircraft will serve the customers seeking a 330 replacement? That would be the 787. The 350WXB ver 2.0.05.6.9.10 fails to address the 787.

Quoting Johnny (Reply 1):
And in the past we all have seen how successful Airbus was with their one-family for longhaul concept - the A330/340

And in the future you will see how successful Boeing will be with 20% capacity steps from 120 to 400 seats in the Y1, Y2, Y3 program. Airbus will have what??? A320, A310 replacement - with what money???, A350, A380 with capacity gaps.

Quoting Pavlin (Reply 3):
I think Boeing wll launch 787-10X (but it will replace 777-200ER, not 200LR) in short period of time. It amazes me why haven't they done so since 777-200ER isn't selling so well.

Nope. It amazes me when people ignore the massive investment made by carriers for the 777's in the last decade negating the need for such a replacement for at least 10-15 years. You don't just buy and park a $250 million aircraft when only a minor incremental cost efficiency can be gained. Sorry, but the 25% claim is BS. Maybe they'll fill it with Helium? The technology is not there for a 25% efficiency jump in a single generation of aircraft. 10-15% from one generation to the next, yes. 15-20% over two generations? Yes. 25% over a single generation 777? Nice try.

Quoting Johnny (Reply 5):
See what i mean:

B787-8/-9 - A350-800
B777-200ER - B787-10 - A350-900
B777-200LR - A350-900R
B777-200F - A350-900F
B777-300ER - A350-1000 (and be sure there will a -1100! )

Actually no, I don't. Airbus has opted to go after the 777. Big deal. -1100??? Pure speculation. The 350-800 does not compete with the 787-8, the proposed configuration is no diffferent than say BA's 777-200's with 260 seats vs. 300 - perhaps this is the 25% improvement pipe dream Airbus speaks of. The -8 is for thin markets that the 350-800 will not be able to touch. Must be nice for Boeing to pursue projects on their own time table....


User currently offlineDAL767400ER From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 20, posted (8 years 5 months 1 week 6 days 12 hours ago) and read 7658 times:

Quoting 787engineer (Reply 17):
Correction: USA and Asia

IMHO, no. I expect most of the 787 orders in Asia outside of Japan to be 787-9s, not 787-8s and sure as hell not 787-3s.

Quoting Slz396 (Reply 18):
Quoting DAL767400ER (Reply 13):
Do you really think that despite the fact that the American carriers are not ordering the 787 right now for financial reasons, the 787-8 being the most popular order, accounting for over 80% of the orders for what has so far been the fastest selling widebody ever is just a fluke?

Think about it for a second before you start attacking me:

I didn't write that  Wink .


User currently offlineAstuteman From United Kingdom, joined Jan 2005, 10254 posts, RR: 97
Reply 21, posted (8 years 5 months 1 week 6 days 11 hours ago) and read 7519 times:
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Quoting AirFrnt (Reply 14):
Do you really believe that Airbus can afford to walk away from half of the world wide market for widebody lift,

According to Boeing, the "worldwide" market is for 6 250 2-aisle widebodys up to 400 seats, and 1000 widebodys over 400 seats, for a total of 7 250.

OF THESE, Boeing say that 1 500 are in the 225-250 seat range covered by the 787-8, and NOT covered by the A350X.

So Boeing think that Airbus are walking away from 20% of the widebody market by number.
Are you saying the CMO is wrong?  Smile

Incidentally, that 20% by number will be at best 15% by value, as these are the least costly widebodys you can buy.

Airbus COULDN'T do 2 families at once. Would be nice if they could have. They've focussed the A350X where the MONEY is.
It'd be wonderful if they could have produced a holistic product range, to an overall strategy. I don't believe today that this is feasible, from either a resource of finance viewpoint.
Therefore, it's hard to fault the positioning, given the constraints Airbus have.

BTW, I wouldn't expect Airbus to stay out of the 225-250 seat segment for 20 years. That will come when the finances and resources become available.

Regards


User currently offlineTravelin man From United States of America, joined Mar 2000, 3556 posts, RR: 0
Reply 22, posted (8 years 5 months 1 week 6 days 11 hours ago) and read 7376 times:

Quoting Slz396 (Reply 18):
If you don't believe me, just do this out of curiosity:
How many 757s are flying with US based airlines? And how many are flying with non-US airlines? Divide these two figures and repeat the same exercise for any other Boeing product and you will start to see why the market of the 787-3/-8 is a very special one.

OK, then do the same thing for 767s, A300s, A310s, etc. The 787-3/8 is meant to replace those planes as well. BA has a big fleet of 767s. KL has 767s as well. LH has A300s/310s. These are hardly tiny airlines. It certainly is not a small or "special" market. And it is one that Airbus is not addressing.

And considering several US carriers operate Airbus aircraft, I think it is highly presumptuous to say US airlines will not buy Airbus. United? Northwest? US Airways? American? These are some of the biggest airlines in the world, and they all operate Airbus.


User currently offlineAirFrnt From United States of America, joined Jul 2004, 2830 posts, RR: 42
Reply 23, posted (8 years 5 months 1 week 6 days 11 hours ago) and read 7162 times:

Quoting 787engineer (Reply 17):
Airbus designed the A350XWB to go after both the 787 and the 777, so the biggest A350XWB, the -1000, is as big as they can stretch the plane, while remaining efficient. If they could've efficiently stretched the -1000 to carry 375+ pax they would have. That's not to say there won't every be a -1100, history does repeat itself, a la the A346

I give Airbus more credit then that. I doubt they will ever try a 346 "stretch too far" again.

Quoting Slz396 (Reply 18):

According to Boeing, the market for planes like the 787-3/-8 is said to be 1,500 copies (most of which are pretty much reaching the end of their useful life early next decade), of which roughly half is US based

(and I hope you agree with me are pretty much blocked off for Airbus).

I absolutely do not agree with you on this point. More to the point, John Leahy's success at Airbus has been founded on going after and competing with Boeing in the US Market. Let's also not forget that Airbus changed from nothing more then a pet project of European governments to a actual real player when AA ordered the A300s. Airbus has badly managed that account since, but there are other carriers in the states - NW,US, UA come to mind immediately that Airbus has good relations with, and one DL, whose old vendor of Choice McDonnel Douglas is no longer in existence.

Airbus became competitive with Boeing when it started to aggressively go after the US market with the 320s.

The vast majority of flights that I take out of DEN are on F9 or UA. They both use A320s as the backbone of their fleet. UA's large order will be out there soon to replace their 767s and 757s. AA will have the mother of all 737 orders. If Airbus ignores these markets, they will doom themselves back to their pre-Leahy days.

Quoting Slz396 (Reply 18):

That means on the international forum, Boeing has about 700 to 800 planes to replace.

Now, so far the 787-3/-8 has won 274 orders from these 800 in total. What does that proof then? So far nothing. You will see Boeing win more international orders, and then in a few years time secure many hunderds of domestic 787-3/-8 orders, thus proving my point exactly, which is Airbus can realistically only hope for 300 to 400 customers for their competing product (i.e. 50% of the really free market).

a) Yes, I do disagree with Boeing's CMO. I think the market for the 747-8i is non-existent, and the market for the 777 will shrink as a smaller plane with competitive CASM (787) becomes available. This is the lesson of globalization and deregulation. Barring artificial restrictions, a route will fragment to the smallest plane that can be flown the most frequently with the most competitive CASM.

b) You have already written off the US market to sustain your position that the 767, A300, and A310 market is not work going after. Now you are writing off 700 more orders (saying that Airbus could only hope to capture 50%). I think you need to re-examine history for a bit and realize that the 787's success has been the exception to the rule. A plane family has been considered successful if it has reached 1000 orders. Even in your worse case scenario, Airbus is walking away from 500 orders before the contest has even started.

c) Airbus is working on the wrong timing here. The market is ready for a 767/757/A310/300 replacement. The 777 was introduced a decade and a half later. That means that Airbus is in a position to compete for new orders, but there are not a lot of frame replacement orders coming.


User currently offlineDIA From United States of America, joined Jan 2001, 3273 posts, RR: 27
Reply 24, posted (8 years 5 months 1 week 6 days 11 hours ago) and read 6980 times:

Quoting EI321 (Reply 16):
Why shrug it off, its the truth.

No, it's your opinion.

Quoting EI321 (Reply 16):
So why has neither a decision or announcement taken place.

In a nutshell...Boeing has made a decision to go ahead with the 787-10 wether or not Emirates will purchase them...and yes, they will be the replacement for the 772ER...as Boeing has said.



Ding! You are now free to keep supporting Frontier.
25 BlueSky1976 : Personally, I'd love to see a 777-200ER with improved technology (787 composite fuselage skin, full composite wings, extended raked wingtips, lightene
26 Ken777 : There are going to be some very interesting A-v-B battles in the market over the next few years as the XWB is going to generate more interest than the
27 Pavlin : there will not be such a thing as 777-400ER. The 777-300ER is only 40 or so seats in 3-class ncofiguration as 744.
28 Swissy : Well the T7 is a great aircraft to begin with but it is 10 years old and in interest of doing business it is always better to improve as much as you c
29 EI321 : C'mon, neither of these airlines will ever buy an airbus, in particularl wide bodys. CO & DL - have gentlemens agreements with boeing on exclusivity,
30 Travelin man : What about the airlines you didn't mention? BA? UA? LH? KL? Surely Airbus has a decent shot with those airlines (or would if they had a product to of
31 WorldTraveler : Remember that Airbus' original proposal for the A350 involved putting new generation engines on the A330 which they said would give them half of the i
32 SparkingWave : Perhaps the 777 of 2006 will not be hard to kill, but the 777 of 2012? That will remain to be seen! Boeing will play the same trick it did when it fi
33 EI321 : Yes, there are many but I was just replying to the 4 airlines originally refered to in reply number 8. Its a common topic here - why did airbus not d
34 FlyDreamliner : Yeah, but 744 is going away - being replaced by the larger 748. I'm not saying we'll see 777 get longer, but there is solidly 10 feet, at least, they
35 Slz396 : Don't you see the business case for Airbus to actually launch a completely new product dedicated to this market is very weak to virtually non-existin
36 Travelin man : You just described the A380.
37 Slz396 : Not really, since Airbus forecasts to sell 800 of them and at much higher rates than those of their theoretical 787-3/-8 competitor we've been discuss
38 Qantas787 : One would think if having only one family line of aircraft is the be all and end all, Airbus should have now crushed Boeing from sight. It would seem
39 Travelin man : Others have forecasted that the market will be about 400, and the development costs will exceed 12 Billion Euros (counting delays). The upshot is Air
40 Iowa744Fan : AC uses the 345 as well. However, the bigger argument here is what is AC doing with this single family of aircraft that they have? They are replacing
41 DfwRevolution : (1) Think of it another way: how would you rate the appeal of the A330-200 outside the U.S.? It's been very popular, no? There are 34 A332 customers
42 Post contains images Johnny : @Iowa744Fan "Ac uses the 345 as well. However, the bigger argument here is what is AC doing with this single family of aircraft that they have? They a
43 EI321 : Actually they are replacing two familys. The A340's will be replaced with T7s, and the dreamliners replace their 767s. Dont forget, there are more bo
44 EI321 : I agree. Airbus are leaving a gap in their product range by offering a larger A350. That gap has been there since the A310. Correct. The same applies
45 Iowa744Fan : [/quote] I do stand corrected on the 767 argument. That did slip my mind and I recognize you for pointing that out. However, they are still replacing
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