Sponsor Message:
Civil Aviation Forum
My Starred Topics | Profile | New Topic | Forum Index | Help | Search 
Richard Aboulafia’s Post-Farnborough Newsletter  
User currently offlineBoomBoom From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Posted (8 years 3 days 16 hours ago) and read 2943 times:

Quote:
Back to Farnborough. It was dominated by Airbus’s new A350XWB. We’re cautiously optimistic about this. Going after the 777 is way smarter than going after the heart of the 787 market, although a successful 787-10 could present serious problems. By 2012, the 777 will be vulnerable. Creating the ambitious new Airbus plane will seriously tax Airbus/EADS’s resources, particularly with the ongoing A380 monster cash suck (and considering that the original A350 contract prices likely won’t be revised upwards). That 2012 service entry looks aggressive and perhaps a tad unrealistic, but this announcement was a good start. There’s only one way to eat a rhinoceros—one bite at a time.

But most of all, Airbus doesn’t have a choice. They could wait a few years until they get the right mix of new enabling technologies and leapfrog the 787, but that would mean spending 2009-2016 or beyond as a niche player, with just narrowbodies and the low volume A380. Without the new plane, Airbus would have nothing to sell between 200 and 500 seats. So Airbus is doing the right thing, an impression endorsed by the XWB’s first blue chip airline order from Singapore, announced at the show’s end.

http://www.richardaboulafia.com/

15 replies: All unread, jump to last
 
User currently offlineLeelaw From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 1, posted (8 years 3 days 16 hours ago) and read 2908 times:

This was interesting as well BoomBoom:

...Reaction from Boeing was predictably swift. And swiftly predictable. They correctly pointed out that the new Airbus design stood little chance against the 787-3/-8/-9. They also maintained that while the new plane might be a good competitor in the 777 segment, by the time it arrived Boeing would be ready to start a 777 replacement, presumably with composites. Maybe so, but a lot can happen in 6-10 years, and Boeing has lost its focus before. And with the right engines, the XWB might be a strong 350-seat performer, no matter what Boeing introduces. Besides, competition is good for this industry, especially in this growing segment...

I'm sure the Aboulafia naysayers on A.net will observe that he's merely stating the obvious, but they may become hard-pressed to automatically dismiss whatever he says as having a pro-Boeing bias if keeps up this tone.

[Edited 2006-07-29 09:14:45]

User currently offlineAeroWesty From United States of America, joined Oct 2004, 20394 posts, RR: 62
Reply 2, posted (8 years 3 days 15 hours ago) and read 2842 times:

I don't read this man's column, but clicked on the link tonight just to see what he had to say. Someone needs to clue me in on a few things:

"Avro 146, a six or eight engine jet" = attempt at humor?

"drinks cost £4 ($137.50)" = may I have the concession for the next Bureaux de Change he comes upon?

I didn't read much further than that, obviously.



International Homo of Mystery
User currently offlineSolnabo From Sweden, joined Jan 2008, 851 posts, RR: 2
Reply 3, posted (8 years 3 days 12 hours ago) and read 2726 times:

"Drink cost £4 ($137.50) and the Avro 146 a six or eight engine jet"

Wonder what Aboulafia been drinking and smoking before writing this article??

He´s a joke imo!

Micke//SWE   

[Edited 2006-07-29 12:33:26]


Airbus SAS - Love them both
User currently offlineNAV20 From Australia, joined Nov 2003, 9909 posts, RR: 36
Reply 4, posted (8 years 3 days 12 hours ago) and read 2697 times:

Quoting Solnabo (Reply 3):
He´s a joke imo!

Because he or his secretary put a decimal point in the wrong place? You just put two question-marks on the end of a sentence, if we're going to start judging people on their typing skills few of us will survive.  Smile

Still - if he IS a joke, I imagine that his view that the A350XWB might be competitive/successful can be discounted, as far as you're concerned?



"Once you have flown, you will walk the earth with your eyes turned skywards.." - Leonardo da Vinci
User currently offlineAither From South Korea, joined Oct 2004, 858 posts, RR: 0
Reply 5, posted (8 years 3 days 12 hours ago) and read 2683 times:

What an analyst !
i'm impressed...



Never trust the obvious
User currently offlineBoomBoom From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 6, posted (8 years 3 days 7 hours ago) and read 2492 times:

And there was this:

Quote:
There's also a new spirit of contrition and openness among Airbus leadership. The new XWB represents a willingness to listen to the market. Nothing focuses the mind like the sight of the gallows, as Samuel Johnson said. Look for the old one-sided market debate about super jumbo planes versus smaller widebodies to be replaced by a more meaningful debate---250-seats versus 350-seats. [emphasis added]
It would be nice to have a debate on "250-seats versus 350-seats" rather than typos.

[Edited 2006-07-29 18:14:08]

User currently offlineAirFrnt From United States of America, joined Jul 2004, 2825 posts, RR: 42
Reply 7, posted (8 years 3 days 5 hours ago) and read 2391 times:

Quoting Solnabo (Reply 3):
"Drink cost £4 ($137.50) and the Avro 146 a six or eight engine jet"

Wonder what Aboulafia been drinking and smoking before writing this article??

He´s a joke imo!

Micke//SWE

When all else fails, attack the messenger. What that doesn't work, ridacule him. If that doesn't work, listen?


User currently offlineMD-90 From United States of America, joined Jan 2000, 8502 posts, RR: 12
Reply 8, posted (8 years 3 days 2 hours ago) and read 2303 times:

I don't think he was pleased with the non-American conditions of Farnborough (not being able to deal with the heat very well). Americans become very cranky without adequate a/c, and even Southerners (like myself, moving equipment outdoors by hand at 103 degrees and 100% humidity in Mississippi) don't care for it.

User currently offlineAvObserver From United States of America, joined Apr 2002, 2470 posts, RR: 9
Reply 9, posted (8 years 3 days 2 hours ago) and read 2253 times:

His opinion largely echos my speculation that the A350XWB will prove a far better 777 than 787 competitor, aside from the -9 & -10 models. Still, I agree Airbus is doing the right thing; doing a perfect 1-to-1 787 fighter would completely leave the 777-300ER/200-LR unchallenged for years, unacceptable now that the A340 is dying off. The 787-8 and slower-selling -3 will have to be addressed by another Airbus development, perhaps a total A300 revamp as others suggested. Trying to cover both the 777/777 range with a single basic design is, as Steven Udvar-Hazy said, a lot to ask. Still, the A350XWB seems a big improvement over the last A350, a design too compromised by reliance on a legacy airframe. I'd hope (but doubt) that his recent comments lay to rest the overwhelming speculation in here that he's biased toward Boeing.

User currently offlineGrantcv From United States of America, joined Apr 2005, 430 posts, RR: 0
Reply 10, posted (8 years 2 days 22 hours ago) and read 2168 times:

If the old A350 was a poor competitor to the B787, in part because of its narrower fuselage, exactly does the A350XWB become a good competitor to the B777 when it again has a narrower fuselage?

User currently offlineJacobin777 From United States of America, joined Sep 2004, 14968 posts, RR: 60
Reply 11, posted (8 years 2 days 22 hours ago) and read 2164 times:

Quoting Grantcv (Reply 10):
If the old A350 was a poor competitor to the B787, in part because of its narrower fuselage, exactly does the A350XWB become a good competitor to the B777 when it again has a narrower fuselage?

The new A350 will have much better CASM than the 777's...even the old A350 had better CASM than the 777-200ER...the new A350-1000 will be a tough nut to crack....



"Up the Irons!"
User currently offlineF14ATomcat From United States of America, joined Jun 2006, 88 posts, RR: 0
Reply 12, posted (8 years 2 days 19 hours ago) and read 2067 times:

[quote=Leelaw,reply=1]This was interesting as well BoomBoom:

...Reaction from Boeing was predictably swift. And swiftly predictable. They correctly pointed out that the new Airbus design stood little chance against the 787-3/-8/-9. They also maintained that while the new plane might be a good competitor in the 777 segment, by the time it arrived Boeing would be ready to start a 777 replacement, presumably with composites. Maybe so, but a lot can happen in 6-10 years, and Boeing has lost its focus before. And with the right engines, the XWB might be a strong 350-seat performer, no matter what Boeing introduces. Besides, competition is good for this industry, especially in this growing segment... It kind of think this is what Boeing was hoping for. A non-composite competitor for the Y3. Don't get me wrong, it will get sales in the "in between market" but it's upside will be limited. The big question fpr Airbus is do you or don't you launch a A380-900? It is the only way to get a any real seat-mile advantage over the 747-8, and you have to think if the route is dense enough for a -800 then a -900 probably would be better. Boeing won't enter that aircraft size market until they are assured of making money. Airbus should basically write-off as a sunk cost the whole -800 program and consider what if any payback potential there would be for the 800 pygmie party plane.


User currently offlineDL021 From United States of America, joined May 2004, 11446 posts, RR: 76
Reply 13, posted (8 years 2 days 16 hours ago) and read 1747 times:
Support Airliners.net - become a First Class Member!

Why is it that people dismiss/vilify a man who is paid handsomely and well respected in the industry simply because they don't like what he says sometimes.

The guy said some good things about Airbus and people still hammer what he says.

Can't win for losing with some people.


It's pretty apparent that Airbus is trying to go after the 777 more than the 787 with this offering, unless they're just shotgunning and hoping. It looks like SQ is planning on replacing their 772s with A350s several years down the road, and it looks like Airbus is making some progress with their customers.

If they manage to get back into this market they'll make money, and then they can decide whether to go after single aisle or medium size widebodies next. We'll also see what the 787-10 looks like and how it compares against the new new competition.



Is my Pan Am ticket to the moon still good?
User currently offlineFlyDreamliner From United States of America, joined Jan 2006, 2759 posts, RR: 15
Reply 14, posted (8 years 2 days 16 hours ago) and read 1747 times:

Quoting Solnabo (Reply 3):

He´s a joke imo!

For how much money the people who run the airlines pay him for his opinions and analysis, i really hope not.... i'm not sure whether the money the give him is to be smart, or to be right, but one way or the other, he delivers well enough to keep up his reputation. What other aircraft analyst do we know by name?



"Let the world change you, and you can change the world"
User currently offlineCloudy From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 15, posted (8 years 17 hours ago) and read 1531 times:

Quoting FlyDreamliner (Reply 14):
What other aircraft analyst do we know by name?

Michael Boyd...though he is more into airport than airline issues.


Top Of Page
Forum Index

This topic is archived and can not be replied to any more.

Printer friendly format

Similar topics:More similar topics...
Richard Aboulafia Speaks On The A350 posted Tue Jul 18 2006 06:02:44 by N844AA
Why Do They Interview Richard Aboulafia? posted Tue Jul 4 2006 12:17:57 by Singapore_Air
Richard Aboulafia: RJ Chalk Outlines On Tarmac posted Fri Dec 2 2005 20:01:11 by Areopagus
Who Is Richard Aboulafia? posted Thu Nov 17 2005 01:16:25 by Schipholjfk
Is Richard Aboulafia From Teal Group Objective? posted Sun May 15 2005 23:17:28 by Keesje
The Future Of Alliances (post Merger Frenzy) posted Fri Nov 17 2006 12:09:40 by B777A340Fan
Quick EI 330 Update Anyone? - Post FR? posted Tue Nov 7 2006 12:40:14 by BHXDTW
STL Post Dispatch: Lambert Runway Underused posted Thu Oct 26 2006 15:35:19 by Ultrapig
Air France To BEY : First Post War Results posted Thu Oct 26 2006 13:46:33 by FlySSC
Airline Jobs/ Aircraft Dispatch/ Post College Grad posted Thu Oct 26 2006 10:09:21 by VikingA346