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Could LAX Or SFO To MAN Work For UA, BA Or Virgin?  
User currently offlineJuventus From United States of America, joined Dec 2004, 2835 posts, RR: 2
Posted (8 years 2 months 2 weeks 2 days 9 hours ago) and read 6662 times:

Just read an article related to the terrorist plot which reads "there are 20 daily flights between Los Angeles and London". I imagine there's got to be a market for at least a couple of daily flights between LAX or SFO to MAN.

Agree/disagree?

44 replies: All unread, showing first 25:
 
User currently offlineCwldude From United Kingdom, joined May 2006, 691 posts, RR: 1
Reply 1, posted (8 years 2 months 2 weeks 2 days 8 hours ago) and read 6637 times:

I don't see why not... with the right advertising mix a few more UK-LAX could work. Not too sure about SFO, possibly if one or two flights were removed from an airlines LHR programme and moved up to MAN it could work?

I am of course saying all this, not taking into consideration that Z4 are looking at operating UK-LAX/SFO from their UK airports, I suppose as soon as this kicks off (assuming it will from MAN), I doubt there'd be much demand for the higher priced fares with the likes of AA, UA, BA, and VS.



Thomson Airways - The UKs premier charter airline // now flown : BY -AA -AJ -AE -AT; OO -AX -AU -RA -BG; BRIG; OBYD
User currently offlineHUYfan From United Kingdom, joined Oct 2001, 1410 posts, RR: 3
Reply 2, posted (8 years 2 months 2 weeks 2 days 8 hours ago) and read 6616 times:

There is a problem with yield on such routes, but maybe VS should'nt get rid of all those 343's and send em up to Manc to operate to LAX and SFO.

Regards

Mike


User currently offlineYULYMX From Canada, joined May 2006, 977 posts, RR: 1
Reply 3, posted (8 years 2 months 2 weeks 2 days 8 hours ago) and read 6610 times:

VS could do it successfully

User currently offlineLaxintl From United States of America, joined May 2000, 25784 posts, RR: 50
Reply 4, posted (8 years 2 months 2 weeks 2 days 8 hours ago) and read 6601 times:

LAX-MAN has been tried repeatedly over the years by everyone from BA itself to charters such as British Airtours, Caledonian, and even Excalibur briefly with its DC-10s.

Ultimately what kills the service is the near total lack of any business demand for the route,and strong seasonal imbalance. BA during the late 90s for several years tried to make a 767 service work. While Y class loads during the summer months were strong, come winter both the Y class demand dropped off substantially with only negligible premium demand. It was not unusual for flights to operate with only 50 passengers on occasion.

I simply cant see either BA, VS, UA making a MAN-LAX service work.
If anything the route could instead successfully operate as a seasonal service by one of the UK charter carriers.



From the desert to the sea, to all of Southern California
User currently offlineB777A340Fan From United States of America, joined Oct 2005, 774 posts, RR: 0
Reply 5, posted (8 years 2 months 2 weeks 2 days 7 hours ago) and read 6543 times:

Quoting Laxintl (Reply 4):
I simply cant see either BA, VS, UA making a MAN-LAX service work.

I agree, especially when those carriers' main UK operations are based out of LHR. That could be a route BMI might consider, but it seems like there is concensus with regards to a lack of demand.


User currently offlineJuventus From United States of America, joined Dec 2004, 2835 posts, RR: 2
Reply 6, posted (8 years 2 months 2 weeks 2 days 5 hours ago) and read 6465 times:

Quoting YULYMX (Reply 3):
VS could do it successfully

Maybe in the future, VS could do LAX-LHR with the A380, and launch LAX-MAN with the A340 or 747.


User currently offlineDavid_itl From United Kingdom, joined Jun 2001, 7394 posts, RR: 14
Reply 7, posted (8 years 2 months 2 weeks 2 days 5 hours ago) and read 6445 times:
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Quoting Laxintl (Reply 4):
BA during the late 90s for several years tried to make a 767 service work

It operated something like April 1993 to Sepember 1994. Given that BA have a plethora of MAN-LHR shuttle services, it does not too much imagination to work out that they'd "persuade" any premium payers to route MAN-LHR-LAX rather than MAN-LAX, so as to ensure that more embarrassment is avoided i.e. another MAN BA long-haul route making a profit. It will always be that way for MAN, GLA and EDI: BA have too much vested interested in routing everyone via LHR.

Quoting Laxintl (Reply 4):
I simply cant see either BA, VS, UA making a MAN-LAX service work.

I can see VS making it work - if they are going to base a couple of 747s here, they do not necessarily have to operate 5 or 6 weekly to LAX but do perhaps a 2 weekly service, with the Virgin Holidays connection and offer in the summer 10 or 11 services a week to MCO, 2 to LAX and 1 to BGI, with winter seeing the LAX service replaced by Caribbean services: 1 to UVF and 1 to ANU.


User currently offlineSllevin From United States of America, joined Jan 2002, 3376 posts, RR: 6
Reply 8, posted (8 years 2 months 2 weeks 2 days 3 hours ago) and read 6387 times:

For that route to work, people on the west coast would have to understand that "England" doesn't mean "London"  Smile

Steve


User currently offlineLaxintl From United States of America, joined May 2000, 25784 posts, RR: 50
Reply 9, posted (8 years 2 months 2 weeks 2 days 3 hours ago) and read 6365 times:

Quoting David_itl (Reply 7):
It operated something like April 1993 to Sepember 1994.

Dont have the data with me at the moment, however BA operated the MAN-LAX 767 for several years, not the short time frame you mention.
I have quite detailed records including pax boardings etc.. on the service.

Quoting David_itl (Reply 7):
but do perhaps a 2 weekly service, with the Virgin Holidays connection

Possibly as more of a budget/charter style service it would work seasonally. This was proven by both British Airtours and Caledonian which managed low frequency charters going back to the 1980s.
However LA is not the typical mass tourist destination which Virgin Holidays can manage to find 400+ people for on a single flight as they can to a place like MCO.
I'm not sure VS would be too anxious to jump on a long haul low yield route(longer than FL or Carrib) these days.



From the desert to the sea, to all of Southern California
User currently offlineWindowSeat From United States of America, joined Sep 2003, 1312 posts, RR: 57
Reply 10, posted (8 years 2 months 2 weeks 2 days 3 hours ago) and read 6358 times:

A little birdie (who works at BMI) told me LAX-MAN is to start next year... details will be coming out soon!


I'm all in favour of keeping dangerous weapons out of the hands of fools. Let's start with keyboards.
User currently offlineMarkabcan From Canada, joined Dec 2005, 205 posts, RR: 0
Reply 11, posted (8 years 2 months 2 weeks 2 days 3 hours ago) and read 6347 times:

BMI seems like an obvious candidate with its current long haul ops to the US from MAN

User currently offlineJuventus From United States of America, joined Dec 2004, 2835 posts, RR: 2
Reply 12, posted (8 years 2 months 2 weeks 2 days 2 hours ago) and read 6313 times:

Quoting WindowSeat (Reply 10):
A little birdie (who works at BMI) told me LAX-MAN is to start next year... details will be coming out soon!

All right, I'll take that. Any chance of BMI at San Francisco???


User currently offlineBoysteve From United Kingdom, joined Apr 2004, 944 posts, RR: 0
Reply 13, posted (8 years 2 months 2 weeks 2 days 2 hours ago) and read 6313 times:

When you consider the amount of people travelling MAN-LAX I am sure that a 3 or 4 times weekly service could work. 2 years ago I flew MAN-DUB-LAX on EI and there were at least 30 of us doing the same routing ex-MAN. Last year I did the trip on BA and once again I was surrounded by people at check-in doing my routing of MAN-LHR-LAX.

User currently offlineAS739X From United States of America, joined Apr 2003, 6161 posts, RR: 24
Reply 14, posted (8 years 2 months 2 weeks 2 days 1 hour ago) and read 6286 times:

There was rumor of BMI flying to San Francisco a few years ago. But I think the reasons above about the low business traffic answers your question. Other then a few weekly LAS flights, BMI serves cities farther east. With the combination of low yeild and long route segments (EU- to US West Coast), I don't think you'll see it. This was another reason from what I rememebr that AZ wouldn't return to the SFO/LAX. Very long flights not making much money.

ASLAX



"Some pilots avoid storm cells and some play connect the dots!"
User currently offlineMainMAN From United Kingdom, joined Jul 2005, 2098 posts, RR: 5
Reply 15, posted (8 years 2 months 2 weeks 2 days 1 hour ago) and read 6260 times:

Quoting Laxintl (Reply 9):
Dont have the data with me at the moment, however BA operated the MAN-LAX 767 for several years, not the short time frame you mention

No, I'm pretty sure it was for about 18 months or so.......certainly not for several years.


User currently offlineMAH4546 From Sweden, joined Jan 2001, 33052 posts, RR: 71
Reply 16, posted (8 years 2 months 2 weeks 2 days ago) and read 6237 times:

It comes down to the fact that even if a California-Manchester flight could make money, the distance between California and the UK is only slightly less than the distance between the UK and China or South Africa, and more than between the UK and India and most of Africa. When it comes down to it, airlines can pull in significantly more revenue flying those LHR-Asia/Africa routes than MAN-California, which is simply a poor allocation of resources. Not only would the yields be very marginal (and likely not profitable with BA, UA, or AA; maybe with BM or VS), but the plane is better used elsewhere.

This is why SAS, Iberia, and Alitalia, among others, have pulled out of California (and, outside of SAS' SEA flight, don't fly more West than Chicago). There are other long-haul markets that can provide much more revenue at similar stage lengths. Where areas to the East Coast, there is a more significant savings in distance versus Asia, and the fares are around the same, if not higher.

Look at California-Paris: AA and UA have both flown from LA and the Bay Area to Paris (LAX-CDG for AA/UA; SFO-CDG for UA; SJC-CDG for AA), and none of those flights were ever profitable, despite filling up (and none were dropped because of 9/11; even though AA's SJC/LAX-CDG flights ended in September 2001, the announcement that they would be discontinued was made before that).

[Edited 2006-08-12 03:06:00]


a.
User currently offlineJacobin777 From United States of America, joined Sep 2004, 14968 posts, RR: 60
Reply 17, posted (8 years 2 months 2 weeks 1 day 20 hours ago) and read 6192 times:

Quoting MAH4546 (Reply 16):

Look at California-Paris: AA and UA have both flown from LA and the Bay Area to Paris (LAX-CDG for AA/UA; SFO-CDG for UA; SJC-CDG for AA), and none of those flights were ever profitable, despite filling up (and none were dropped because of 9/11; even though AA's SJC/LAX-CDG flights ended in September 2001, the announcement that they would be discontinued was made before that).

it's a shame it can't work out....AA has no international service from NoCal.....espeically given that it does have a semi-large loyal AA FF's there....

given everyone from Monterey to Sonoma County, that's a good 7-8 million people which can potentially be tapped...


This seems like a route for the 787-8....



"Up the Irons!"
User currently offlineKoruman From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 18, posted (8 years 2 months 2 weeks 1 day 18 hours ago) and read 6142 times:

My understanding is that a MAN-California flight is likely to be in service by mid-2007, and that it will carry a BMI code.

The difference, however, is that it will be a Boeing 777-200ER operated by Air New Zealand, and will be an extension either of NZ 5/6 (Auckland - Los Angeles) or NZ 7/8 (Auckland - San Francisco).

The logic is that
1) Air NZ has seen a doubling of demand in all classes for UK-NZ/Australia since 2000.
2) 35% of business passengers and 50% of total British passengers from LHR are from north of Northampton.
3) Air NZ cannot acquire further carriage rights from LAX or SFO into LHR.
4) Point-to-point Manchester to LAX or SFO passengers may not fill 26 Business and 27 Premium Economy seats, but the combined northern England to LAX, New Zealand, Fiji and Tahiti markets might.
5) The risk for Air NZ would be reduced if they could contract with United and BMI for each of them to purchase say 50 or 100 seats per flight for codeshare resale.

The factors arguing against such a route extension have been:
1) Regulatory problems with reselling codeshare seats (not primary traffic rights).
2) The MAN-LAX route is less seasonal (better weather) and offers better Air NZ Pacific Island connections, but has less business traffic than SFO.
3) MAN-SFO would not feed into any Air NZ flights other than the continuation to Auckland.

All the same, the next few months will be interesting. With Air NZ unable to get additional carriage rights LAX/SFO-LHR, they have routed their second AKL-LHR service via Hong Kong. If it is not a runaway success, or if NZ1 AKL-LAX-LHR provides better profits, expect the third UK service to be NZ-California-MAN.

[Edited 2006-08-12 09:34:04]

User currently offlineHumberside From United Kingdom, joined Dec 2005, 4927 posts, RR: 4
Reply 19, posted (8 years 2 months 2 weeks 1 day 15 hours ago) and read 6056 times:

Quoting WindowSeat (Reply 10):
A little birdie (who works at BMI) told me LAX-MAN is to start next year... details will be coming out soon!

Very unlikely to happen. bmi's long haul expansion is firmly focused on LHR

MAN-LAX would be ideal for FlyGlobespan - particularly with the likely low yields on the route. And Im sure the GSM chairman said his airline was considering MAN-West Coast USA flights



Visit the Air Humberside Website and Forum
User currently offlineDavid_itl From United Kingdom, joined Jun 2001, 7394 posts, RR: 14
Reply 20, posted (8 years 2 months 2 weeks 1 day 11 hours ago) and read 5959 times:
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Quoting Laxintl (Reply 9):
I have quite detailed records including pax boardings etc.. on the service.

I've got CAA records from 1986 - the years when MAN-LAX has passengers recorded are:

1988: 10762 passengers (charter)
1989: 30157 passengers (charter)
1992: 14646 passengers (charter)
1993: 60605 passengers (scheduled)
1994: 49467 passengers (scheduled)
1996: 00410 passengers (charter)
1997: 08926 passengers (charter)

How many routed MAN-"transit"-LAX is not known.

David


User currently offlineJacobin777 From United States of America, joined Sep 2004, 14968 posts, RR: 60
Reply 21, posted (8 years 2 months 2 weeks 1 day 10 hours ago) and read 5933 times:

Quoting Humberside (Reply 19):
Very unlikely to happen. bmi's long haul expansion is firmly focused on LHR

one of BD's most profitable routes is MAN-ORD...even with daily AA competition and 2x/weekly PK competition...

Quoting Humberside (Reply 19):
MAN-LAX would be ideal for FlyGlobespan - particularly with the likely low yields on the route. And Im sure the GSM chairman said his airline was considering MAN-West Coast USA flights

they are leasing a couple of 787's from ILFC..maybe they would start the route when they get them in 2010



"Up the Irons!"
User currently offlineCXA330300 From South Africa, joined May 2004, 1563 posts, RR: 2
Reply 22, posted (8 years 2 months 2 weeks 1 day 10 hours ago) and read 5911 times:

I imagine it would work if there was a strong hub to back it up. Which MAN lacks.

Quoting Juventus (Thread starter):
"there are 20 daily flights between Los Angeles and London"

That would be both LHR-LAX and LAX-LHR, because:

2 daily AA
daily NZ
3 daily BA
2 daily UA
2 daily VS



The sky is the limit as long as you can stay there
User currently offlineUalcsr From United States of America, joined May 2006, 485 posts, RR: 1
Reply 23, posted (8 years 2 months 2 weeks 1 day 10 hours ago) and read 5886 times:

Quoting MAH4546 (Reply 16):
Look at California-Paris: AA and UA have both flown from LA and the Bay Area to Paris (LAX-CDG for AA/UA; SFO-CDG for UA; SJC-CDG for AA), and none of those flights were ever profitable, despite filling up (and none were dropped because of 9/11; even though AA's SJC/LAX-CDG flights ended in September 2001, the announcement that they would be discontinued was made before that).

Are UA's and AA's LHR-California routes profitable? Just curious.


User currently offlineSJCRRPAX From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 24, posted (8 years 2 months 2 weeks 1 day 8 hours ago) and read 5849 times:

Quoting Ualcsr (Reply 23):
Are UA's and AA's LHR-California routes profitable? Just curious.

I have flown the SFO-LHR several times on UA, and it has always been standing room only. I think the problem for MAN is that no Americans (OK, the people I know) want to go to anywhere but London in the UK, therefore any flight to MAN would rely on UK residents living near MAN.


25 Sam1987 : I think MAN to LAX is unlikely. It is currently so easy to travel via LHR. If you go on BA, you can buy a through ticket, you can check in your luggag
26 Humberside : Yes, MAN-ORD has done very well but with a limited number of longhaul aircraft, longhaul expansion will be totally out of LHR. And routes like LHR-Sa
27 David_itl : Remind which were the 1st lot of BA cancellations this week? Don't bother as I've err...worked them out: the short-haul ones! Any kind of impediment
28 Post contains images ManchesterMAN : Travelling via LHR is anything but easy and when things go wrong they go wrong. This is the third August in a row where people taking BA flights have
29 MainMAN : That's a bit of a layman's viewpoint. London is a monumentally HUGE market from almost everywhere (except South America), and for every 10 US citizen
30 Dutchjet : I think that BA only flew the route for about 3 or 4 seasons, but it doesnt really matter......BA tried very hard to make its LAX-MAN service work, w
31 ManchesterMAN : I'll bet Virgin holidays sells a fair few holidays to LA to North West travellers. If bmi could do a similar deal with them as with Vegas they'd have
32 MAH4546 : Other factors come into play, like how bmi is the only network European carrier flying to Las Vegas (with Condor being a holiday airline and Virgin i
33 2travel2know : A MAN-LAX-AKL flight by NZ may make some sense and be somewhat profitable, other SFO/LAX-MAN (by VS, BA, UA) might not be a good idea, unless one of t
34 Post contains images MalpensaSFO : That was an error that the Mayor of Los Angeles made in a press conference. As usual another press conference by the City of Los Angeles contained fa
35 MalpensaSFO : There are few if any routes that BMI can connect passengers to and from at Manchester. One big bonus to LAS over SFO for BD is that BD can turn the L
36 ZK-NBT : Obviously he meant return flights aswell. Not rumoured, it is going 772 from October 28th. Not heard of it being dropped at all. I'm pretty sure that
37 MalpensaSFO : Per the news conference he said "20 flights a day from Los Angeles to London". Well in any case the number was fluffed!
38 Koruman : ZK-NBT, I think the point is that for an MAN-LAX-AKL flight, MAN-LAX would largely be to fill the back of the plane, because there should be a conside
39 MalpensaSFO : At last check Birmingham, Liverpool, Leeds, and Newcastle did not exactly draw the high yielding crowds. In addition NZ operating a LAX-MAN route wou
40 MAH4546 : Yes they are. Few people can afford to jet set off to the middlle of the Pacific Ocean. Only Australians and New Zealanders see Tahiti and Fiji as "j
41 Post contains images Jacobin777 : they might very well be, but it certainly can't be to the United States out of LHR.. ..I've been saying this too....MAN has quite a large population
42 Koruman : Malpensa, there aren't that many premium seats to fill on a 777. Also, two decades ago who would have imagined that Harvey Nichols would open Neiman M
43 Planesarecool : Well that makes more sense than cancelling long haul flights. London is the business and tourist centre of the UK. Sorry if you don't like that, but
44 Humberside : Aberdeen Edinburgh Glasgow London Heathrow Toulouse Plus passengers can connect onto LH,SAS and LOT
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