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Narita To The US: Not A Market For The A380  
User currently offlineIncitatus From Brazil, joined Feb 2005, 4007 posts, RR: 13
Posted (7 years 11 months 3 weeks 5 days 18 hours ago) and read 13531 times:

Looking through air service planned in 2007 from Narita to US Mainland, I found the majority of service will be provided with 777-200 aircraft.

I counted 32 daily frequencies, plus 4 weekly flights on JAL (1xLAX and 3xJFK). Only 35% of departures will be on 747s, that is, 11 daily flights and the 4 weekly flights on JAL. The other flights are 18 x daily on 777-200s and in the case of Northwest, 3 daily flights on A330-200s. Narita-USA used to be 747 territory.

This is hard evidence of the fracturing of the Pacific market - starting first in Japan because it is the largest and most competitive market. At first this would seem an ideal market for the A380 with a slot constrained airport and large passenger volume with narrow departure windows. But not!

The actual market for passenger A380s seems to be the city-states, like Singapore and Dubai. They lack significant home-country hub competition. They face less competition on local traffic from foreign carriers that have difficulty filling up a flight into the city-state hubs. They can also build volume of low-yield connecting traffic to fill up the hundreds of coach seats. In spite of associating the A380 with luxury, first class suites, gyms, roller-coasters and Starbucks coffee shops, I suspect those airplanes will end up having a larger share of tiny cramped seats.

75 replies: All unread, showing first 25:
 
User currently offlineKeesje From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 1, posted (7 years 11 months 3 weeks 5 days 18 hours ago) and read 13475 times:

Quoting Incitatus (Thread starter):
Only 35% of departures will be on 747s, that is, 11 daily flights and the 4 weekly flights on JAL.

One can also conclude more then half the passengers flies with the largest available aircraft as has been the case for decades and this is unlikely to change significantly.


User currently offlineIkramerica From United States of America, joined May 2005, 21502 posts, RR: 60
Reply 2, posted (7 years 11 months 3 weeks 5 days 18 hours ago) and read 13475 times:

If you check again, I'm pretty sure some of those are 777-300ER flights, not 772. JL and NH are both sending the 77W to the USA.


Of all the things to worry about... the Wookie has no pants.
User currently offlineKaitak From Ireland, joined Aug 1999, 12428 posts, RR: 37
Reply 3, posted (7 years 11 months 3 weeks 5 days 18 hours ago) and read 13449 times:

I'm sure SIA has already said it's going to operate 380s on the SIN-NRT-LAX route? Not right away, of course, but once it has enough aircraft.

User currently offlineSpacecadet From United States of America, joined Sep 2001, 3624 posts, RR: 12
Reply 4, posted (7 years 11 months 3 weeks 5 days 18 hours ago) and read 13369 times:

Quoting Incitatus (Thread starter):
plus 4 weekly flights on JAL (1xLAX and 3xJFK).

Can you clarify this? It sounds like you're saying JAL has 4 weekly flights from NRT to the USA. Or are you including their daily flights in your 747 tally?

I think an A380 might work JFK-NRT. On some days they have both flight 5 and flight 47 - both 747's - plus several code-shares with and without connecting flights. Their 747's are almost always full. They could take an A380 instead and just have one flight per day - it doesn't hold two 747's full of people, but they'd be spreading that demand out over a week vs. trying to cram all those people in on 3 days. So they'd be flying 7 flights per week instead of 10 and carrying the same number of passengers for less money.

I personally hope they *don't* go that route, as I just think of JAL as the 747 airline. But they are probably the one airline that could justify this.



I'm tired of being a wanna-be league bowler. I wanna be a league bowler!
User currently offlineIncitatus From Brazil, joined Feb 2005, 4007 posts, RR: 13
Reply 5, posted (7 years 11 months 3 weeks 5 days 17 hours ago) and read 13360 times:

Quoting Spacecadet (Reply 4):
Can you clarify this? It sounds like you're saying JAL has 4 weekly flights from NRT to the USA. Or are you including their daily flights in your 747 tally?

JAL has several daily flights. But it also runs an extra 747 a week to LAX and 3 x a week to JFK, continuing to Sao Paulo GRU.


User currently offlineHb88 From United Kingdom, joined Sep 2005, 816 posts, RR: 31
Reply 6, posted (7 years 11 months 3 weeks 5 days 17 hours ago) and read 13360 times:

Sort of in this thread, but does anyone have any thoughts on why the 380 wouldn't be a suitable aircraft for Japanese domestic high-density configuration routes?

I know Airbus a/c are as rare as hens teeth with Japanese carriers, but I don't think I've seen it mentioned anywhere in the media.


User currently offlineIncitatus From Brazil, joined Feb 2005, 4007 posts, RR: 13
Reply 7, posted (7 years 11 months 3 weeks 5 days 17 hours ago) and read 13360 times:

Quoting Keesje (Reply 1):
One can also conclude more then half the passengers flies with the largest available aircraft as has been the case for decades and this is unlikely to change significantly.

That has changed significantly in other markets such as New York to London. On what basis should we expect that Narita to the US be different?


User currently onlineStitch From United States of America, joined Jul 2005, 30865 posts, RR: 86
Reply 8, posted (7 years 11 months 3 weeks 5 days 17 hours ago) and read 13321 times:
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Quoting Hb88 (Reply 6):
Sort of in this thread, but does anyone have any thoughts on why the 380 wouldn't be a suitable aircraft for Japanese domestic high-density configuration routes?

An A380D would haul around a great deal of unnecessary structure, just as the 742SR and 744D did, which led to NH and JL moving to the 773A when it became available. The 773A itself carries around a good deal of unnecessary structure, which is why the 787-3 has been ordered by both carriers.

Quoting Incitatus (Thread starter):
This is hard evidence of the fracturing of the Pacific market - starting first in Japan because it is the largest and most competitive market. At first this would seem an ideal market for the A380 with a slot constrained airport and large passenger volume with narrow departure windows. But not!

The A380 may not become the dominant player between the US and Japan, but I do believe the plane will serve some US markets to and from NRT/KIX.


User currently offlineKeesje From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 9, posted (7 years 11 months 3 weeks 5 days 17 hours ago) and read 13282 times:

Quoting Incitatus (Reply 7):
That has changed significantly in other markets such as New York to London.

I think BA and VS have >10 flights daily LHR-NY with 747s.

I think seeing the hugely dominant positions of JAL & ANA from NAR to the US and their special position towards Boeing I think it is to far to draw general conclusion towards Pacific use of the A380 (which is not even in service anywhere).

[Edited 2006-08-31 20:51:47]

User currently offlineJayinKitsap From United States of America, joined Nov 2005, 769 posts, RR: 1
Reply 10, posted (7 years 11 months 3 weeks 5 days 17 hours ago) and read 13236 times:

NRT and KIX both have very high landing fees that are based on weight, I recall it is on MTOW. The 380 MTOW is substantially larger than the 747, with a higher weight per unit of payload. These costs are pushing the flights from 747's to 777's for the cost difference. It also explains the quick jump to the 787 by ANA and JAL as it is significantly lighter.

Boeing had several 747 models specifically adapted to high volume short haul as the high cycle operation is tough on a plane designed for the long haul. These are starting to be phased out with smaller planes taking over. Also the demand for short haul is dropping because of the bullet train, particularly Tokyo-Osaka and between.

For example the 787-3 is signicantly lighter that the 787-8 but uses the same gear so landing stresses are reduced.


User currently offlineLaxintl From United States of America, joined May 2000, 25056 posts, RR: 46
Reply 11, posted (7 years 11 months 3 weeks 5 days 17 hours ago) and read 13158 times:

There has been a structural change in Narita-Japan flying in the last decade amongst the key players in the market.

United for instance has de-emphasized Tokyo to the extent that more and more of its Asia services operate directly compared to previously being routed via NRT. For instance today 5 daily nonstop flights serve China & Korea which used to flow over Tokyo. Other destinations such as Hong Kong continue to receive add'l nonstop US capacity. In turn UA has been operating more and more smaller capacity 777s to Japan and instead emphasizing it as more of a O&D market instead of transit stop. You will see more and more of this in the coming year, especially as the carrier unveils its new alliance with ANA modeled after the Atlantic Alliance it has in place with Lufthansa.

Northwest has seen a reduction in Tokyo capacity as it goes thru its own pains. NWA has traditional been more reliant on lower yield back of the bus traffic partially due to the huge deployment of large capacity 747s across the Pacific. With some routes receiving smaller A330s, while others have seen frequency reductions NWA has seen its Tokyo boarding's drop.

ANA instead has maintained its US network and is actually growing it with the addition of NRT-ORD. What has changed with it is the draw down of its B744 fleet being replaced by 773s.

Japan Air on the other hand has definitely shrunk its NRT-US network with withdrawal completely from some cities such as DFW, ATL, LAS and large reduction in frequencies from others such as LAX (from near 3 daily to only 8 weekly). Japan Air continues to bleed which has seen it refocus on other markets such as China.

In addition some 3rd party carriers that have previsouly operated Narita-USA such as Malaysian and Varig are no longer in the market.

Lastly, as other Asian carriers continue to grow other regional airports such as Seoul, Taipei, Hong Kong are serving as major connection points which at one time was predominantly the domain of Tokyo.



From the desert to the sea, to all of Southern California
User currently offlineIncitatus From Brazil, joined Feb 2005, 4007 posts, RR: 13
Reply 12, posted (7 years 11 months 3 weeks 5 days 15 hours ago) and read 12988 times:

Quoting Keesje (Reply 9):
I think BA and VS have >10 flights daily LHR-NY with 747s.

They have fewer. Of the 10 daily flights from London to New York on BA, 5 are 747s. And out of the 6 on Virgin, 2 are 747s. London-NY is a huge market with lots of local traffic. But airlines compete on schedule variety, and schedules are not dense enough to warrant more large aircraft.


User currently offlineJfk777 From United States of America, joined Aug 2006, 8324 posts, RR: 7
Reply 13, posted (7 years 11 months 3 weeks 5 days 12 hours ago) and read 12752 times:
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Narita will see many A380's eventually. The first one will be from Lufthansa, as I heard some where their first A380 route is going to be FRA-NRT. Air France can 't be far behind, CDG-JFK and Montreal are the two first routes but NRT has to be close to third. SIA will eventually fly the monster to NRT, either as SIN-NRT-LAX or simply SIN-NRT-SIN. China Southern, 5 A380's ordered, shoud fly to Tokyo. Thai Airways from Bangkok will fly it to Tokyo just to meet demand. Malaysia & Korean both have it coming, should replace 744 services with it. Emirates should if they get NRT slots, they will sooner or later. The A380 will become as common at NRT with the foreign airlines as the 747's they fly today.

I'm waiting to see if JAL or ANA order the 747-8 or the A380 or just order more 773ER's.


User currently offlineCentrair From Japan, joined Jan 2005, 3598 posts, RR: 20
Reply 14, posted (7 years 11 months 3 weeks 5 days 12 hours ago) and read 12716 times:

NRT will see the A380 from Europe and SIN. NRT is a 747 heaven. Seems like almost every other plane landing is a 747. But KIX however, will not see one for a while. It is not slot restricted, loosing service, and has very few 747s now. KIX and NGO will possibly see A380Fs. FedEX is increasing its facility at NGO due to its large cargo apron and business space.

As for a domestic A380 for Japan...not a chance. They are downsizing those to 777s. With JR increasing speeds on the Shinkansen, the time from Central Tokyo to Central Osaka is dropping. If you take in Check-in, boarding, taxi, fly, taxi, and deplaning, the time is not as convienient as a Shinkansen from Tokyo or Shinagawa to Osaka, Kyoto or Kobe. Distance to Airport is a moot topic both ITM and HND are very accessible as they are centrally located.

NOTE: NH launched a new no-paper, no-nothing ticket that only involves the IC card in the NH frequent flyer or credit card. All your flight info is on it. No boarding pass either. The time for getting check-in just got faster! (This is also available via cell phone)



Yes...I am not a KIX fan. Let's Japanese Aviation!
User currently offlineAaron747 From Japan, joined Aug 2003, 8121 posts, RR: 26
Reply 15, posted (7 years 11 months 3 weeks 5 days 11 hours ago) and read 12646 times:

Let's just reemphasize once again for the record: there will be no A380 purchases by NH or JL.


If you need someone to blame / throw a rock in the air / you'll hit someone guilty
User currently offlineCentrair From Japan, joined Jan 2005, 3598 posts, RR: 20
Reply 16, posted (7 years 11 months 3 weeks 5 days 11 hours ago) and read 12529 times:

Quoting Jfk777 (Reply 13):
I'm waiting to see if JAL or ANA order the 747-8 or the A380 or just order more 773ER's.

Even a 747-8 order is kind of hard to see right now. I would go with the later; more 773ERs.

Many airlines will probably bring in A380s to NRT but, when the 2nd runway is extended and slots open up, competition will as well. If KIX and NGO can attract more as well, there will be less connecting in NRT. Just around 15 years ago, if you wanted to take an international flight you really had to go to Tokyo. Now KIX and NGO are attracting business and working with JL and NH to provide feed. This will further eat away at NRT's hold. (More Sendai pax travel via NGO than NRT due to convienient connection and options) Next look for FUK and CTS to attract non-stop long-haul service to new international destinations. Japan is fragmenting. Once Airbus or Boeing come up with an aircraft that can seat around 200 in two classes comfortably and fly 8000nm effectively with good cargo, Japan will start looking like US-Europe.

[Edited 2006-09-01 03:15:41]


Yes...I am not a KIX fan. Let's Japanese Aviation!
User currently offlineZeke From Hong Kong, joined Dec 2006, 8996 posts, RR: 75
Reply 17, posted (7 years 11 months 3 weeks 5 days 10 hours ago) and read 12252 times:

Quoting Incitatus (Thread starter):
The actual market for passenger A380s seems to be the city-states, like Singapore and Dubai. They lack significant home-country hub competition. They face less competition on local traffic from foreign carriers that have difficulty filling up a flight into the city-state hubs. They can also build volume of low-yield connecting traffic to fill up the hundreds of coach seats. In spite of associating the A380 with luxury, first class suites, gyms, roller-coasters and Starbucks coffee shops, I suspect those airplanes will end up having a larger share of tiny cramped seats.

Even in Japan a time will come with current passenger growth trends that more than a 777 or 747 load of passengers will want to leave at the peak periods.

The 380 is not the be all and end all, however trying to use historical or a current schedule when passenger demand is increasing at 5-10% a year to predict the future is a false hypothesis.

Demand will increase across all time slots in a day, some schedules might be better off with a 787, some with a 350, some with a 777, some with a 747, and some with a 380.

The 380 does not fit into all airlines plans today, nor does it fit all routes or city pairs today, to be so bold and say that it will never ever change when passenger growth and demand is so high in my view is very brave.



We are addicted to our thoughts. We cannot change anything if we cannot change our thinking – Santosh Kalwar
User currently offlineLightsaber From United States of America, joined Jan 2005, 12981 posts, RR: 100
Reply 18, posted (7 years 11 months 3 weeks 5 days 9 hours ago) and read 11818 times:
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I find it interesting people tend to be very pro A380 or believe there is no market for it. Personally, I think there will be some NRT-US A380's, but only if various freedom rights are being employed. E.g., SIN-NRT-LAX/SFO/JFK is one possibility. NRT-ICN-LAX/SFO/JFK is another.

Do I expect either JL or NH to buy the A380? I doubt it. They seem to be hunkering down for a fragmenting market.

But there will be a market for A380's to the US. I just do not expect them to be operated by US or Japanese based airlines.

Lightsaber



Societies that achieve a critical mass of ideas achieve self sustaining growth; others stagnate.
User currently offlineTimePilot From Switzerland, joined Sep 2005, 296 posts, RR: 0
Reply 19, posted (7 years 11 months 3 weeks 5 days 9 hours ago) and read 11695 times:

The only flights I take are from Japan to the US and back, and personally I would be disappointed if JAL went with Airbuses for that. Not to get into argument, but I much more prefer the 747 to any Airbus I've flown on. This is one of the reasons why I fly JAL not ANA: ANA uses Airbuses more (I've also got a zillion FF miles.)

Last year I flew the AA NGO > ORD route on a 777. It was a relief not having to change at NRT. After I came back to Japan I heard that AA had cancelled that route because it was "unprofitable". Indeed JAL is cancelling one of its NRT <> ORD flights as well (now 2 daily.) I just came back on the ORD > NRT flight (the 10:55am one) and it was half empty (summer vacation was over.)

And according to the Wikipedia, JAL has the world's largest fleet of 747s: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Japan_Airlines

The 747 is also my favorite plane Big grin


User currently offlineCXA330300 From South Africa, joined May 2004, 1560 posts, RR: 2
Reply 20, posted (7 years 11 months 3 weeks 5 days 9 hours ago) and read 11590 times:

Have any Japanese carriers bought the A380?

Quoting Spacecadet (Reply 4):
and just have one flight per day

Flight 47 continues to São Paulo.



The sky is the limit as long as you can stay there
User currently offlineZvezda From Lithuania, joined Aug 2004, 10511 posts, RR: 64
Reply 21, posted (7 years 11 months 3 weeks 5 days 9 hours ago) and read 11574 times:

Quoting Kaitak (Reply 3):
I'm sure SIA has already said it's going to operate 380s on the SIN-NRT-LAX route? Not right away, of course, but once it has enough aircraft.

SQ have said they would prefer to add nonstop capacity rather than upgauge the stopover flights. However, as orders stand right now, it looks like they won't have aircraft available for more nonstops until 2011, so a temporary upgauge seems likely.

Quoting Hb88 (Reply 6):
Sort of in this thread, but does anyone have any thoughts on why the 380 wouldn't be a suitable aircraft for Japanese domestic high-density configuration routes?

The trend in the Japanese domestic market has been JumboJets -> B777s -> B787s.

Quoting Centrair (Reply 16):
Even a 747-8 order is kind of hard to see right now. I would go with the later; more 773ERs.

I would be surprised to see JL or NH order anything as large as the B777-300ER. I expect the B787-10 to be the largest aircraft ordered by a Japanese carrier before the availability of Y3.


User currently offlineCentrair From Japan, joined Jan 2005, 3598 posts, RR: 20
Reply 22, posted (7 years 11 months 3 weeks 5 days 9 hours ago) and read 11574 times:

Quoting TimePilot (Reply 19):
ANA: ANA uses Airbuses more (I've also got a zillion FF miles.)

JL has JAS's old A300s and NH has A320s. Unless you are flying domestic on NH you get an Airbus. JL and NH are retiring all their A320s. NH will be 100% Boeing before JL is (The MDs aren't leaving for a while). NH will have a fleet of 737s, 767s (replaced by 787-3s), 787-8s, 777s and 747s (leaving the fleet as well in favor of 773).



Yes...I am not a KIX fan. Let's Japanese Aviation!
User currently offlineTokyoNarita From Palau, joined Aug 2003, 570 posts, RR: 0
Reply 23, posted (7 years 11 months 3 weeks 5 days 8 hours ago) and read 11484 times:

It's quite simple. ANA and JAL would rather not buy the A380s. If they could they would want to avoid it. It would be a tremendous increase in cost to introduce Airbus product to their fleet. However, if the foreign competitors start flashing their A380s to provide new kind of air travel, entertainment, amenities, service and comfort to some of the key destinations from NRT to steal away premium passengers, then it will be a big problem. If JAL and ANA's existing premium product cannot compete effectively with say Virgin, Singapore and Air France's A380s "new" premium product, then they may be forced to take a serious look at it because the majority of the airlines with A380s will undoubtedly bring the equipment to NRT. "IF" that senario was to occur, then I would expect all of JAL and ANA's B747 would dissapear really quick and just be B777s and a handful of A380s for international long hauls.

[Edited 2006-09-01 05:45:19]

User currently offlineCarpethead From Japan, joined Aug 2004, 2952 posts, RR: 3
Reply 24, posted (7 years 11 months 3 weeks 5 days 8 hours ago) and read 11422 times:

Here are all the NRT-US mainland routes currently (appologies if I missed any)
UA - NRT-JFK - 772 - 1 daily
UA - NRT-ORD - 744+772 - 2 daily
UA - NRT-LAX - 744 - 1 daily
UA - NRT-SFO - 744+772 - 2 daily
UA - NRT-SEA - 772 - 1 daily
NW - NRT-DTW - 744 - 2 daily
NW - NRT-MSP - 744 - 1 daily + extra?
NW - NRT-LAX - 744 - 1 daily
NW - NRT-SFO - 332 - 1 daily
NW - NRT-PDX - 332 - 1 daily
NW - NRT-SEA - 332 - 1 daily + 1 extra weekly
AA - NRT-JFK - 772 - 1 daily
AA - NRT-ORD - 772 - 1 daily
AA- NRT-DFW - 772 - 2 daily
AA - NRT-LAX - 772 - 1 daily
AA - NRT-SJC - 772 - 1 daily
DL - NRT-ATL - 772 - 1 daily
CO - NRT-IAH - 772 - 1 daily
CO - NRT-EWR - 772 - 1 daily

JL - NRT-JFK - 744 - 10 weekly
JL - NRT-ORD - 744 - 2 daily
JL - NRT-LAX - 744 - 8 weekly
JL - NRT-LAS - 744 - 3 weekly
JL - NRT-SFO - 744 - 1 daily
NH - NRT-IAD - 773 - 1 daily
NH - NRT-JFK - 773 - 1 daily
NH - NRT-LAX - 773 - 1 daily
NH - NRT-SFO - 772 - 1 daily

SQ - NRT-LAX - 744 - 1 daily
KE - NRT-LAX - 772 - 1 daily

NRT-SJC by AA & NRT-LAS by JL will be discontinued while NH will add NRT-ORD with 772 & will upgauge the NRT-SFO when the 6th 773ER is delivered.
Of all the above the flights, only SQ11/12 SIN-NRT-LAX-NRT-SIN has the even remote chance of getting an A380.

Off topic, but someone has mentioned the possibility of a A380D. The chances are zero. Why?
Because HND and every other terminal facility that sees 744D action will have to be redesigned. While most Japanese airfields are A380 capable, the domestic gate space at each Japanese airport is designed with the 747-classic wingspan in mind. If one A380 parks at a domestic gate, then three gates will be occupied. While gate space at the regional facilities may not be a problem, this would create an operational nighmare at the bigger domestic airports such as HND, FUK or CTS.

If Airbus can design an A380 with a folding wing design, like that proposed on the 777, it may work. However, I really don't think the Japanese domestic market needs a 800-pax plane. Domestic traffic is seeing very little growth and NH & JL can replace its 744Ds the next decade with a 773 or whatever else is suitable other than an A380D.

To muddle up the picture, it was on the news today that the fourth runway at HND has not gotten started because of continued difficulties in compensation settlements with the local fishermen/fisheries. The construction was slated to start this spring but will surely be next year before any construction starts. It is expected the construction time to be three years with the landfill method, but the floating runway concept has not totally been ruled out.


25 WingedMigrator : Because it is a much longer segment, where flight scheduling is driven mostly by time zones (would you like to arrive at 3 AM?) Frequency is much les
26 TokyoNarita : Speaking of the original topic, the two Japan-U.S. with very possible immediate A380 actions are: KE 001/002 ICN-NRT-LAX SQ 012/011 SIN-NRT-LAX[Edited
27 USAJPNflyer : Also a strike against the A380 being used for Japan domestic operations is the recent restriction that four-engine aircraft may no longer be operated
28 Centrair : Sad to hear that HND didn't get the compensation issue covered. But it seems that the only ones that will be hurt are the newer LCCS and if they want
29 ElmoTheHobo : The only thing that I don't agree with you about. Folding wings on an A380 would increase weight significantly. They'd be better off using two gates
30 Sllevin : Actually, it's quite telling that as such demand is occuring airlines are downgauging flights out of Narita. There are more 777's and 330's than ever
31 Ikramerica : That is not true for these routes. Due to the flight duration vs. time zone changes, there is a LOT of room for frequency in the schedules. JFK-NRT g
32 Zvezda : JL and NH have already ordered B787-3s to replace the B747-400Ds. I agree with respect to SQ, but not KE. The main demand for ICN-LAX is nonstop not
33 Zeke : That is today, passenger growth will change all that.
34 Zvezda : Zeke is right. The A330s and B777s (and the remaining Jumbos) will be replaced by A350s and B787s. There is no reason to believe that the 20 year tre
35 Carpethead : In the end, that could be the case but if the fourth runway at HND doesn't open at all, a much larger aircraft solution will be required. Basically i
36 Ikramerica : That's amazing for such an international city. But honestly, those were just examples. You could shift the afternoon flights earlier by 2 hours witho
37 Zeke : Zvezda is right. Airlines have unlimited funds and crews and airports keep being built that have unlimited slots, and population and centres of comme
38 Post contains links and images Keesje : The bigger versions of the 787 seem to be the most popular, airlines go for 9 abreast, Boeing considers to pull the -10 forward. B772ER aren't sellin
39 Cobra27 : What a news. You really wouldn't expect something this revolutionary on this form. Just consider this that no Japan airline ordered the A380 and they
40 COSPN : Well Light SABER, Gordon Bethune former CEO of CO has Said there are some routes like LHR-DEL for the A380 , Just no routes CO can use it for
41 TokyoNarita : Well, it is true that KE's NRT-LAX has been downgraded to a B777 from a B747 but I am not sure if you can call all of that "lack of demand" I wouldn'
42 Zvezda : Orders so far: B787-3: 43 B787-8: 275 B787-9: 50 Boeing have been talking publicly about the B787-10 for about a year now, but haven't launched it ye
43 Incitatus : I disagree with that. Check out the schedules of Cathay Pacific to LAX. the flights are nicely distributed over the day. People have different needs
44 Incitatus : What is the better alternative then... To guess?
45 Post contains images Stitch : No, and while I will never say "never", I find it unlikely they well. That said, I also find it unlikely they will buy the 747-8I, as well. I wonder
46 Zeke : The better alternative is to continue to monitor the market, not to rule anything out and to keep an open mind. To me ruling out an aircraft based th
47 DAYflyer : Or one can say that they have replaced the 747 with more efficient 777 and they have added destinations, so the A-380 is no longer required or practi
48 Ikramerica : As pointed out, that's not true. Wow, where have we heard that before? Even at slot controlled NRT, KE has decided to fly more 777s more frequently t
49 Zvezda : Right. I did write orders, not deliveries. I didn't mean to suggest that B777-300ER orders would be cancelled.
50 Airbazar : All it means to me is that the primary airlines operating between NRT and the US have not ordered the A380. As for the lack of competition at SIN, ho
51 Stitch : Thank you. I get it now. So you believe that neither airline is likely to order additional 777-300ERs and will instead wait until Y3 (or the A350-100
52 Incitatus : That's all nice to say but Moore's Law does not apply to air travel. The A380 as "new technology" is a big overstatement. It flies at roughly the sam
53 Stitch : It is unlikely the A380 will be in commercial service for only 5-10 years, however. So while in the short term the A380 may not be a runaway commerci
54 Incitatus : I meant to say they have less competition in their home markets. Take for example, Emirates service to NY. It may be able to sustain several daily fl
55 Zvezda : Not exactly. I believe that, rather than order additional B777-300ERs or any other "large" widebodies, JL and NH are likely to continue ordering smal
56 RJ111 : The trend towards smaller planes could also be attributed to the fact that more advanced but smaller planes since the 744 have come out and made that
57 United Airline : Not sure about ANA but I think JAL will order the B 747-8 to replace their B 747-400s
58 WingedMigrator : I stand corrected. (I was incorrectly extrapolating from segments like NRT-LAX)
59 Ikramerica : While this is true for some airlines, most people forget that the 747 was the only option for the longest range flights. So it wasn't that the 747 CA
60 Naritaflyer : They already use the special 747-400s with over 500 PAX. I think that's sufficient. the A380 would be configured for 800 PAX or so to provide the sam
61 SJCRRPAX : .... or maybe the Population of Japan will continue to shrink, the desire of Japanese to travel as they get older will go down, some business travel
62 Sllevin : Are you saying there hasn't been growth to date, as routes havegrown smaller? In that case, why do you think there will br growth in the future? Or a
63 Danny : And where will they base them considering Tokyo airports are running at full capacity?
64 Sllevin : Here's the big flaw in Narita reasoning. For years Narita represented a major transit hub for people not just going to Japan, but beyond. More and mor
65 Carpethead : An A380 will never see the light with NH (there I said it). NH's days when cramming economy passengers are gone. Ever look at their long-haul aircraft
66 Zeke : And why do we see so many higher capacity busses these days..... the A380 is new technology, it is more advanced than any current aircraft from Boein
67 Stitch : I do agree with you that there will always be certain high-demand/high-traffic trunk routes in each carrier's portfolio. And I also agree with you th
68 Aaron747 : Good points about the Japanese population. Continued gradual economic slowdown in Japan is a strong possibility over the next two decades and any gro
69 Zvezda : Rather than speculate on this, let's look at hard numbers. We know that total transpacific traffic is increasing. We know that some or all of that ca
70 Danny : What trend? Narita did not see any decline in trafic in recent years. Facts do not support your theory.
71 Zvezda : The question is not whether or not NRT saw a decline in traffic. The question is whether or not NRT saw a decline in the number of passengers per air
72 Post contains images Glareskin : NH and JL are the best candidates for the A380. But I know, very unlikely... How about cargo? Is there any change for NH or JL? And what if the A389
73 Zeke : I do know after a certain event in 2001 LAX passenger numbers dropped by 9%, so doing your study over 5 years does nothing, it will show passenger co
74 Post contains links and images Stitch : Well, honestly, NH and JL are the only candidates for the A380 from Japanese airlines. I don't believe NCA is a major player in the international pac
75 OldAeroGuy : That would make a lot of sense. She could use them as containers for transporting cargo without any fuel burn.
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