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Airbus A380 Who's Next To Jump Onboard?  
User currently offlineWINGS From Portugal, joined exactly 11 years ago today! , 2831 posts, RR: 67
Posted (9 years 9 months 2 days 16 hours ago) and read 20256 times:

Looking at the current number of A380's on order + options, it's truly amazing to see how well this particular family of aircraft has done before entry into commercial service.

The market for such a plane as the A380 has been and still is regarded by many as rather limited, yet after numerous delays it's numbers are steadily growing. With many current A380 customers expected to convert it's options into firm orders,s Airbus should close 2006 with additional commitments. So far we have had Singapore Airlines signing a LOI for 9 + 6 , while it has been rumoured for some time that LH is also close to converting it's options. Conversion of current options could also trigger other airlines to also reconsider it's options.

Airbus target for each year is to attract two additional airlines to join the A380 program. The question remains as to which airlines will be the most likely candidates to fill that role in the coming years. With less than 120 days to go until 2007, it's going to be interesting to see if Airbus holding back for a big finale.

My guess as to who will jump onboard the A380 program in 2006 is China Airlines and Asiana + SAA (via ILFC)


10 + 4




10 + 10



5 + 3

15 + 10


12 + 10


19 (9 LOI) + 9

10 + 10

6 + 6


159 Firm
168 Firm + LOI
62 Options (including new SQ order)


Passenger and Cargo.


Aviation Is A Passion.
192 replies: All unread, showing first 25:
User currently offlineQatarA340 From Qatar, joined May 2006, 2075 posts, RR: 6
Reply 1, posted (9 years 9 months 2 days 16 hours ago) and read 20225 times:

Those planes sure do look weird! My guess is that Etihad will choose more planes, maybe QR (since they choose the least amount amongst all buyers). Maybe Cathay Pacific..

لا اله الا الله محمد رسول الله
User currently offlineBennett123 From United Kingdom, joined Aug 2004, 9187 posts, RR: 2
Reply 2, posted (9 years 9 months 2 days 16 hours ago) and read 20187 times:

I do not expect any new customers until EIS.

User currently offlineBA787 From United Kingdom, joined Jun 2006, 2596 posts, RR: 6
Reply 3, posted (9 years 9 months 2 days 16 hours ago) and read 20187 times:

I hope BA and JAL go for the A380 but I doubt JAL will. I'm still holding the opinion that BA will!


User currently offlineGlareskin From Netherlands, joined Jun 2005, 1323 posts, RR: 1
Reply 4, posted (9 years 9 months 2 days 15 hours ago) and read 20104 times:

Likely: BA, MU, CX, IB

Very unlikely: CV, JL (although it would be a good fit), AC

Possibly: CA, CI

Would be nice: KL, UA, NW

Best looking: Nippon Cargo (wow, what a beauty!)

There's still a long way to go before all the alliances deserve a star...
User currently offlineRootsAir From Costa Rica, joined Feb 2005, 4188 posts, RR: 36
Reply 5, posted (9 years 9 months 2 days 15 hours ago) and read 20095 times:

out of the airlines that have ordered the A380, I think it looks amazing with the thai livery!
I think BA and IB are potential customers.
Dunno why BA hasn't yet ordered them

A man without the knowledge of his past history,culture and origins is like a tree without roots
User currently offlineTCXDegsy From United Kingdom, joined Jan 2006, 518 posts, RR: 1
Reply 6, posted (9 years 9 months 2 days 15 hours ago) and read 20056 times:

Quoting RootsAir (Reply 5):
Dunno why BA hasn't yet ordered them

BA has stated many times it will place no orders for new aircraft until it's move to T5 is over, and the Pensions Deficit issue is resolved. So don't expect anything until after March '08, according to Mr Walsh, on this basis.

It's also using this statement, and timescale, to allow Boeing and Airbus to draw up their "battle plans" to negotiate the best terms. BA are in a strong position in this respect

next flights: BA1441 0566 0581 1446 EDI-LHR-MXP-LHR-EDI
User currently offlineAlessandro From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 7, posted (9 years 9 months 2 days 15 hours ago) and read 20011 times:

KLM perhaps,since there joint-venture with AF. The Suriname route could fill
up an A380 a few times a week.

User currently offlineLumberton From United States of America, joined Jul 2005, 4708 posts, RR: 19
Reply 8, posted (9 years 9 months 2 days 15 hours ago) and read 19990 times:

South African. Lease.

"When all is said and done, more will be said than done".
User currently offlineOldAeroGuy From United States of America, joined Dec 2004, 3837 posts, RR: 66
Reply 9, posted (9 years 9 months 2 days 14 hours ago) and read 19910 times:

I doubt that any general cargo operator, such as Atlas or Cargolux will order the A380F.

Airplane design is easy, the difficulty is getting them to fly - Barnes Wallis
User currently offlineLifelinerOne From Netherlands, joined Nov 2003, 1968 posts, RR: 8
Reply 10, posted (9 years 9 months 2 days 13 hours ago) and read 19762 times:

Quoting OldAeroGuy (Reply 9):
I doubt that any general cargo operator, such as Atlas or Cargolux will order the A380F.

Don't you count UPS or FedEx as general cargo operator/

Cheers!  wave 

Only Those Who Sleep Don't Make Mistakes
User currently offlineBill142 From Australia, joined Aug 2004, 8508 posts, RR: 8
Reply 11, posted (9 years 9 months 2 days 13 hours ago) and read 19734 times:

Quoting OldAeroGuy (Reply 9):
such as Atlas

Atlast could. Qantas are looking at expanding their freight business, so the current set up where Qantas leases aircraft/crew from Atlas might contiune and my see demand for the A380F

User currently offlineSK909 From Denmark, joined Nov 2005, 261 posts, RR: 0
Reply 12, posted (9 years 9 months 2 days 13 hours ago) and read 19718 times:

Nice photos/images...

Life's for Living!
User currently offlineAT502B From South Africa, joined Dec 2004, 347 posts, RR: 0
Reply 13, posted (9 years 9 months 2 days 13 hours ago) and read 19718 times:

Quoting LifelinerOne (Reply 10):
Don't you count UPS or FedEx as general cargo operator/


UPS and Fedex are more package carriers than large freight operators, unlike Atlas etc. UPS ordered some B747F's recently to accomodate the large freight that the A380 can't get through the side doors.

I love the smell of jet fuel in the morning.
User currently offlineScaledesigns From United States of America, joined Aug 2006, 211 posts, RR: 0
Reply 14, posted (9 years 9 months 2 days 13 hours ago) and read 19691 times:

The plane will need to have the floor redesigned if they want to get any "real"
cargo operators to buy them.Fedex and UPS are small package operations,
not true cargo operators.Fedex does have have huge cargo contracts with the USPO(again small package only).For those who dont agree,go down to
Fedex and try to ship a container of car parts on Fedex.

F1 Tommy
User currently offlineLeelaw From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 15, posted (9 years 9 months 2 days 13 hours ago) and read 19659 times:

Quoting WINGS (Thread starter):
19 (9 LOI) + 9

Singapore Airlines Orders 20 Airbus A350 XWB-900s And 9 Airbus A380s
21 July 2006

...With this order, Singapore Airlines will have 19 firm orders and 6 options for the Airbus A380 and is now scheduled to take delivery of its first aircraft in December 2006.


User currently offlineSLCUT2777 From United States of America, joined Dec 2005, 4214 posts, RR: 9
Reply 16, posted (9 years 9 months 2 days 13 hours ago) and read 19636 times:

Quoting SK909 (Reply 12):
Nice photos/images...

Very much agreed. I don't however see any North American Carriers in the passenger business (FedEx & UPS are definite). Not likely at all: UA, NW, AA, DL or AC.

DELTA Air Lines; The Only Way To Fly from Salt Lake City; Let the Western Heritage always be with Delta!
User currently offlineChiad From Norway, joined May 2006, 1425 posts, RR: 0
Reply 17, posted (9 years 9 months 2 days 13 hours ago) and read 19624 times:

Wings ... amazingly cool post.
Loved the pics. Awesome!

User currently offlineScaledesigns From United States of America, joined Aug 2006, 211 posts, RR: 0
Reply 18, posted (9 years 9 months 2 days 13 hours ago) and read 19624 times:

Im new to a.net...I read alot of the discussions.Its kind of funny to listen to the many posts...The only thing I hate is the USA against Europe..You guys sometimes act like little kids.

In general I am a Lockheed guy.Since they are gone now its sometimes
Boeing and sometimes Airbus.

I hope to post many pictures as soon as I shrink my picture files.
I used to shoot for Aerogem back in the 1980s.


F1 Tommy
User currently offlineAndz From South Africa, joined Feb 2004, 8596 posts, RR: 9
Reply 19, posted (9 years 9 months 2 days 13 hours ago) and read 19590 times:
Support Airliners.net - become a First Class Member!

Quoting WINGS (Thread starter):
SAA (via ILFC)

Quoting Lumberton (Reply 8):
South African. Lease.

This is as bad as "when will NW sell their DC-9s". SAA are not in the market for 380s.

After Monday and Tuesday even the calendar says WTF...
User currently offlineJayinKitsap From United States of America, joined Nov 2005, 769 posts, RR: 1
Reply 20, posted (9 years 9 months 2 days 12 hours ago) and read 19550 times:

I think Varig will climb aboard with an order for 10.

User currently offlineLeelaw From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 21, posted (9 years 9 months 2 days 12 hours ago) and read 19468 times:

Quoting Andz (Reply 19):
SAA are not in the market for 380s.

...Hamilton-Manns said it would be feasible to acquire A380s if South African passengers could be persuaded to fly to or from the UK in daylight, so that the expensive plane would not waste 12 hours waiting on the tarmac...


User currently offlineAirbazar From United States of America, joined Sep 2003, 9890 posts, RR: 10
Reply 22, posted (9 years 9 months 2 days 12 hours ago) and read 19468 times:

I think SAA and Air China are the most likely candidate. KLM, no way. AF will be the only operator of A380's in the KL/AF group. Much like LH will only base their A380's at FRA, I think it would be too costly to have A380's based at both AMS and CDG.

User currently offlineLightsaber From United States of America, joined Jan 2005, 15666 posts, RR: 100
Reply 23, posted (9 years 9 months 2 days 12 hours ago) and read 19406 times:

Quoting Alessandro (Reply 7):
KLM perhaps,since there joint-venture with AF. The Suriname route could fill
up an A380 a few times a week.

KLM is my vote for the most likely next order. It also wouldn't suprise me to see Cathay step up and order A380's.

Ibera, Northwest, United and British airways all have a decent chance. BA will negotiate like anything. Will they order 77W's/788's? You can expect them to force Boeing and Airbus to win that order. As to NW and UA, that will depend on financing.

As to SAA... I don't know. It seems like they could fill the A380's, but would they buy enough to justify the added complexity? I honestly do not know.

Personally, I expect a bunch of "top off" orders from the initial buyers *if* they are happy with the A380 performance (which I expect them to be). This alone will keep the line going another two years. If the A388R (extended range) can be made to do SYD-LHR (doubt it, but worth the try), I would expect a large +up order from Quantas.  hyper 

Personally, the Indian airlines are the ones who could benifit the most from the A380 lift... If Kingfisher is a success, I expect them to order an EK number of A380's. IF... a powerfull two letter word.

Quoting OldAeroGuy (Reply 9):
I doubt that any general cargo operator, such as Atlas or Cargolux will order the A380F.

 checkmark  the floor loading simply isn't high enough on the A388F. Its fine for package carriers like Fedex and UPS, but Polar et al need the high floor loading and occasionally the big door. If the A380 delivers "good enough" performance, I have no doubt Fedex will buy all of their options.


"They did not know it was impossible, so they did it!" - Mark Twain
User currently offlineAndz From South Africa, joined Feb 2004, 8596 posts, RR: 9
Reply 24, posted (9 years 9 months 2 days 12 hours ago) and read 19398 times:
Support Airliners.net - become a First Class Member!

Quoting Leelaw (Reply 21):
Hamilton-Manns said it would be feasible to acquire A380s if South African passengers could be persuaded to fly to or from the UK in daylight, so that the expensive plane would not waste 12 hours waiting on the tarmac...

You quote an article from February 2005? Is that the basis for this speculation about SAA? I could go back into the archives and put the same argument forward about 777s.

After Monday and Tuesday even the calendar says WTF...
25 RootsAir : with what money ? regards BM
26 Stitch : Since it appears that the A380 flight test program has addressed any lingering issues about NA-HKG service, I would not be surprised to see CX buy the
27 AirPacific747 : WOW! The A380 in JAL colours looks very good indeed!
28 OldAeroGuy : Nope. As others have said, they are package carriers, not general freight carriers. Volume is more important to them than load carrying capability CX
29 USADreamliner : For sure not: ELAL Garuda Philippines United Maybe: Some other chinese airline, or another "deep pockets" Middle eastern airline. usadreamliner
30 Neverest : WINGS, you did a lot of work and must be commended.
31 MCIGuy : I still say US pax carriers will never order the A380.
32 Blast : Agree with that. I really reckon SA can use the A380 on the LHR route and it would make sense to have Airbus replace the 744 at some point, perhaps w
33 ER757 : CI or OZ would be my guess for next to order. BA probably sometime down the road, but I don't see them as "next to jump on board" as the title of the
34 Nimish : Welcome on board. I wish AI would order a few A380's and bring some muscle into the market!
35 SLCUT2777 : I likewise see NW phasing out all 744 equipment and I don't think it will last much longer with UA either. I think NW might go with an A350 or maybe
36 LTU932 : OZ has been previously discussed and they're said to order the A380 sometime soon. GA seems unlikely, unless they're going for only a handful for Euro
37 Leelaw : Actually, I was quoting from the article to explain why the A380 might not be practicable for SA's operation.
38 Andz : Not the way I read it, but apologies if I got it wrong.
39 Aircellist : Cool thread. Very nice picture; good idea. This huge tail makes most airline's colors look very nice.
40 Post contains images Lightsaber : With two decks, it would be possible to do an A380 combi. With that capability... yes, I see a home for the A380 integrated with the AF service. Note
41 Post contains images Gr8Circle : You seem to be predicting almost every major airline going for the 380.... I hope not....the 748 would be better for them.....
42 Blast : That could actually make sense for KL, like they operate a whole bunch of 744 combis now. But still I don't see it happen any time soon. KL seems to
43 Post contains images Brilondon : I don't see AC ordering any A380's due to their smaller market area (Canada). Also the T7 order and the 787 order are probably an indication that AC i
44 Rheinbote : The Repo-man?[Edited 2006-09-02 23:00:08]
45 FCKC : Probably Asiana will be the next buyer , before yearend. China Al is rumoured to have chosen the 747-8I. Also the Sultan of Brunei could be the first
46 Post contains images Stitch : Could very well be. I hear constant good-natured carping from the LAX UA crowd about how CX keeps adding daily 747 frequencies while UA won't even pu
47 EBJ1248650 : I can see Northwest ordering the A380 but I suspect 747-800s are more likely for United. I had thought Northwest might go the A340-500/600 route but
48 Stitch : Northwest would be more likely to wait for the A359R/A35G (if they want Airbus) or 772LR/773ER (if they want Boeing) then order the A345/A346 at this
49 Ptugarin : Please welcome me here as a new member. I just wanted to add that LY is also unlikely to order an A380 for political reasons. They have been known as
50 Wjcandee : I may well eat these words, but I would be shocked, just shocked, to see Emirates actually be able to absorb 43 of these things into their actual oper
51 AvObserver : I agree. This is still a relatively small market niche and not that many potential customers are as yet so eager to jump on board. I agree that order
52 Deputydawghere : I agree with you.
53 Ptugarin : If EK express works out, other airlines will start considering filling the long-houl LC niche, and that's where the unlimited opportunities will open
54 Jfk777 : Most Asian airlines have ordered that will order the A380. Air Canada: I see little chance as they are going for the 777/787 combination apart from To
55 Tom12 : I can't see Atlas, Polar, Cargolux or BA and CX going for them Tom
56 EMBQA : Your kidding right...?? Airbus has not had a significant order placed for the A380 in nearly two years. They are still only around 33% of the way to
57 Aither : Several airlines in India could use it. Even on the domestic operations.
58 Post contains links SA7700 : If you consider the current financial situation at SA, profits plunged with 90% during the last fiscal year, IMO an SA A380 deal will not be closed d
59 OldAeroGuy : If the A388 is too large to be attractive, why do you think the A389 will be a better choice?
60 Dazeflight : Can we quote you on that in say, 2 years?
61 AvObserver : You are right about the carriers that already consider the A388 too large for their needs but for some of those who've already ordered it, most notab
62 Stitch : When it comes to Indian and Chinese domestic, I still think the 787-3 is going to be a viable player. An A388D (assuming Airbus even bothers) will ju
63 Thebry : Does Airbus really have a goal of adding two "new" A380 customers per year? If so, when's the last time they picked up a new customer? Surely it can't
64 Lehpron : Everyone who is saying XX is gonna get a few or whatever, could you please say why/how you think so? I could say DL but then I'd be wrong as I don't k
65 Ma66 : Last year they got 3 new customers. UPS (10) which have been interested in the aircraft since before launch, Southern China Airlines (5) and Kingfish
66 Manni : Looks more like he's pointing out potential candidates. An artist impression of a A380 in Easyjet, Air Asia or Southwest colors wouldn't make sense h
67 Art : I don't agree with your comment but am open to correction. Doubling the order book in the next two years (to 336) would give Airbus roughly enough or
68 Dallasnewark : I think it's well below 33%. Didn't Airbust said they needed to sell 250-300 planes to break even? And that was last year. Unless they got a lot of i
69 Dallasnewark : That's just a wishful thinking, oil will not go up that high. Don't forget any economic recession will send the oil prices plunging into the $20 per
70 RedFlyer : Airbus has booked the following A380 orders: 2001: 85 2002: 10 2003: 34 2004: 10 2005: 20 2006: 9 Do you see a pattern here? I doubt they're going to
71 AndrewUber : I agree. While it would be cool to see pax boarding A380's at UAL, NW and other legacy carrier's gates, I too doubt we'll ever see it. Drew
72 Art : If I ran an airline (armchair CEO bit rearing its head here) I think I might take the risk of reducing my frequencies and losing some of my premium p
73 Jumbojet : Im sure its not going to be a lot of airlines that want to jump on board. The plane seems overkill and time will tell. Plus, its an ugly looking plane
74 Post contains images Manni : A year ago Airbus had 159 orders and needed 250 to 300 to break even. So they had already booked 55% to 65% of the orders needed to break even. With
75 Aircellist : Like Art, I, too, doubt we will ever see again such a price range for oil, even in the darkest recession. Also, any movement against Iran would proba
76 Post contains images Aeroplan73 : I sure like the look of the A380 in Air Canada colours. Alas, I don't think it will ever happen.
77 OldAeroGuy : But the A388 will need to demonstrate a reasonable demand before the A389 is launched. If you can't sell a 550 seat airplane, why do you think a 650+
78 JayinKitsap : I was being a bit sarcastic. So many of the carriers that are noted here are: a) in dire financial straights (heading for, in, or just getting out of
79 Post contains links Leelaw : FWIW, from Flight International's post Farnborough wrap-up/summary August 6, 2002: ...Airbus chief commercial officer John Leahy is confident the A38
80 FCKC : Iberia is still studying it. Do not see Atlas Air -Polar order it , since they are on the verge to place a 747-8F order. Probably if the first CEO of
81 Dazeflight : Did you ever thought about the possibility that the potential customers are waiting for EIS and operating data from the first 6 or 12 months before d
82 Post contains images LifelinerOne : Well, if I recall correctly, combi's aren't allowed anymore by FAA rules. However, if I remember right, this rule only applies to be not allowed anym
83 Leelaw : Another thought, my anecdotal observations of KL ORD/AMS 744M flights is that bulk, rather than package freight is usually loaded into main deck carg
84 Art : Not quite. The A388 by design was relatively heavy per passenger seat. missing the design weight has exacerbated the situation. The "unshrunk" A389 w
85 RJ111 : Highly unlikely that anyone will order before EIS as this means taking an unnecessary risk. Once the plane is in service many other airlines will take
86 OldAeroGuy : The A389 will only be fuel efficient if it is full. It remains to be seen what markets will support the load factors required for the A389.
87 Post contains images Stitch : Also, if oil does rise even more precipitously, that will require fares to rise, as well, at least in the short term. That will depress overall traff
88 EMBQA : The current break even number are now closer to 400-450 with the new round of delays and cost over runs. Even at the start of the program aviation ex
89 RedFlyer : The A380 program was formally launched in June, 2000. Not sure about you, but 168 orders over seven years seems a little on the thin side. I have tho
90 Post contains images Manni : Can these numbers be confirmed by reliable sources, or only be found in reports from sceptici? That's irrelevant. Many claimed the A380 would never t
91 Art : You don't think that any of the world's major 747 users will order the A380 when the time comes to replace 747's? Nor that China/India will order a r
92 BillReid : The real question is who will jump off this albatross?
93 Post contains images Manni : Before SQ shut up the skeptici with ordering an extra batch of A380's, SQ was high on the list. Or are you talking base jumpers here...
94 Art : I think nobody. A lot of airlines are being paid extra to stay with the albatross. Not because it does not work - if that were the case, they could a
95 EMBQA : No, because Airbus is very closed liped about the true break even number. They have never issued an official number and with that, the same holds tru
96 RJ111 : Expected break even was never 300 from the start, try 250.
97 Post contains images Jacobin777 : Great job with the photo Wings... I think many here are confusing if the technologial merits versus the commercial merits of the A380... I don't think
98 Scbriml : Has any manufacturer ever quoted an exact break-even sales number for a plane?
99 Post contains images Ordryan28 : this is a very interesting topic. I would assume PK would be a valiant customer for the A390, although I don't see that happenning anytime soon with t
100 Stitch : Solely presented for comparison purposes, the 747 family had 205 orders between January 1966 and January 1972, and she had absolutely nothing even re
101 RedFlyer : The 747 has no direct competitor. When airlines have looked to replace their existing 747's, they have actually tended to replace down (e.g., 777) gi
102 Post contains images Art : I agree. Would have been a much better strategy with lower risk.
103 Post contains images Thebry : ...or they regurgitate news from Farnborough '06 that SQ has converted options to nine more orders, which means the program is a resounding success.
104 EMBQA : Nope.. that is everything. 168 total airframes over 7 years.
105 RJ111 : Is there any evidence of that? Seem pointless calling it a break even point because no aircraft is ever sold at list price these days. Regardless the
106 Brilondon : I do not think that US/HP would be interested in an aircraft of that size no matter what route they would choose. The A350 would be a more likely cho
107 Sllevin : My personal belief if that it will be a very, very long time before A380 #200 rolls off the line. And I don't believe #400 ever will. Steve
108 Post contains images Leelaw : IMO, the truly amazing feat is that in the first year after certification in December 1969, Boeing delivered 96 747s, despite serious issues with the
109 Thebry : That somehow blunts the argument that the Queen of the Skies has been de-throned. She's no longer the largest passenger VLA, but she certainly did ch
110 Aircellist : Yes, many times the 747 has been replaced by the 777-300, which represents a fall in capacity, but could it be that the superior efficiency of the 77
111 Stitch : Agreed. And the reason I used 1966-1972 was because you noted a seven year period for the A380 to garner sales (2000-2006), so I wanted to use the sa
112 Jfk777 : A380 can only land at 20 airports. LAX is not even ready for the whate jet and Qantas plans to fly there first. It is a challenge to sell a jet if few
113 Gemuser : Not this crap again! The A380 will be certified to use ANY airport the B744 can (execpt for those few with absoulte weight limited structures). SOME
114 Post contains images WingedMigrator : Cost is not dependent on how many pax are onboard. Revenue, on the other hand, is highly sensitive to the number of pax So, it's less confusing to ke
115 Post contains images Stitch : True, it is, afterall, "Cost Per Available Seat Mile". So whether she has 5 people or 500, her CASM is identical. But, as you rightly pointed out, wi
116 Post contains links Manni : So your number is just a guess? Based on what? http://service.spiegel.de/cache/international/0,1518,360443,00.html According to current Airbus calcul
117 Post contains images Jacobin777 : er.....after the latest fiasco.....He has no credibility at all...
118 Post contains links Manni : That's incorrect. The first 747 was delivered to PanAm on december the 12th 1969. At that time Boeing had 178 orders for the 747. FWIW, If SQ firms u
119 CO738 : I honestly don't see any American Passenger airliners buying thesei thnk they are more willing to buy 747-8 because there is no need to worry bout run
120 Post contains images Manni : His quote is from before the latest fiasco
121 Post contains images Jacobin777 : he's a habitual liar ...
122 EMBQA : ...and that was 2-1/2 years ago. Guess what..?? Times have changed and cost over runs, program delays, structural redesign issues and payments to air
123 Manni : The article from Der Spiegel is from june 2005 (it also mentions a total cost of 12 billion euro), that's 14 months ago. No doubt that the original n
124 Post contains links Ma66 : You forgot these links (Break even 300 units): http://findarticles.com/p/articles/m...m0CWU/is_2005_March_9/ai_n12415852 http://business.scotsman.com
125 Post contains links Manni : Here's some more... http://www.usatoday.com/money/biztravel/2005-01-16-a380-usat_x.htm And another 105000 results... http://www.google.com/search?hl=
126 Post contains images Jacobin777 : will be happy to...
127 Ma66 : I didn't read all 105000 only the first 10 on my list. In general the suggest higher numbers, but these higher numbers was not confirmed by Airbus.
128 Gemuser : More crap, in the same thread no less! According to Airbus the A380 will use the same or less runway, under the same conditions to perform the same m
129 Scaledesigns : Sorry Manni,im not trying to pick on you. I think in 10-15 years almost all the non US based pax airlines mentioned will have either leased or bought
130 Jacobin777 : "Philippe Camus, co-chief executive of the European Aeronautics Defence and Space Co (EADS) said the 380 project will reach breakeven when over 300 p
131 Post contains images RayChuang : The fact that the later A380-800 test planes that are more representative of production aircraft have demonstrated lower aerodynamic drag than anticip
132 Post contains images WINGS : Thank you all for the very positive feedback. It sure means alot to me. " target=_blank>http://www.singaporeair.com/saa/en_U...6.jsp Hi Leelaw, I'm n
133 Post contains links Leelaw : Looks as though BAE may have concluded that "breakeven" ain't anywhere near 300 units anymore: ...BAE had decided to sell its Airbus stake before EADS
134 Post contains images WINGS : These were also the same people that believed that their shares in Airbus were also more valuable. Regards, Wings
135 Post contains images Leelaw : Apparently because they were formerly under the misapprehension that breakeven was in the neighborhood of 300 units.
136 Post contains images WINGS : But not all is bad news. We also have to look at the boost the A330 is gathering due to the late arrival of the A380. In regards to my question in re
137 Leelaw : Sorry for my late edit of my reply 133 WINGS.
138 MotorHussy : Slim outside chance at some point in the future - NZ.
139 Ordryan28 : I could easily see that. at some point or another, NZ will need to replace their 744's. although I presume they would order the 748 first, I certainl
140 Danny : I do not believe they need such a huge aircraft. B773ER or A350-1000 will be perfect for NZ.
141 Post contains images WINGS : Thanks for clearing that up Leelaw. I now see that it is me that has mixed it up I thought that SQ originally had 12 options for the A380. They conve
142 Deputydawghere : I agree with you, especially since Cargolux was one of the two launch customers of the 747-8, ordering ten in November 2005. Definitely agree with yo
143 DeltaDC9 : I disagree, they had some perfect market timing with the 320, introduced in between the 737 and 737NG, making it the best and to some the only possib
144 AirFrnt : You must really be looking at a different order sheet then I am.
145 BA787 : Even though I fully agree with this on paper, practically it won't work. BA unfortunately has neither the finance nor the route security to warrant t
146 Stitch : In the near term, perhaps, though I admit I remain unconvinced of that, to be honest. But Airbus still has some two decades or more of sales opportun
147 MotorHussy : Except that most of the time they're filling 744's to LHR and they can't get any more slots there (now that they have two flights a day). It would no
148 Jfk777 : I don't see Air NZ having 3 long haul airplanes, 748, 787 & 777 it doesn't make sense for there size operation. The only airports Air NZ has slot prob
149 Hb88 : I couldn't agree more. This stuff is tedious in the extreme. People should check their facts before posting on this particular topic. In any case, th
150 Leelaw : Happy first anniversary on A.net!
151 Ozglobal : Why? i) You expect them to be permanently in crisis and never to have high volume international long haul routes (frequency is a diminishing advantag
152 Hb88 : Holy moly. It's true! Thanks. My how time flies... As for who might jump on board. My shot is BA (Almost no question. It's not if, but when), Asiana,
153 AirFrnt : iv) It makes no business sense whatsoever. v) We did our plane is bigger then your plane 30 years ago vi) we have no need to build a plane just to st
154 Ozglobal : Did it work?
155 AirFrnt : When there was only a 707 on the market, and no widebody had ever been built before? Yes. But the situation is different now, which is why no 747-8i'
156 Thebry : Right you are AirFrnt... right you are. Thanks for helping me put this in better perspective. In retrospect, the 747 was quite an achievement. It's c
157 AirFrnt : Ahh. you quoted yourself, not my post. As far as the VLA market goes, the larger the frame, the smaller the market. Boeing bet big on the 747 (which
158 Jacobin777 : BA have 57 744's in their fleet...ranging from 1989 to 1998......Walsh has already spoken on multiple occasions stating that the A380 would be a "nic
159 Bnamaxx : This thread is simply hilarious. Put me firmly on the side of those who think this airplane is going to be a huge albatross. There's a good reason why
160 Gemuser : Agreed, most heartily. However out here in the real world(TM) "all other factors" are NOT equal and most likely never will be! The A380 WILL find a n
161 Leelaw : Apparently, nobody will know how profitable until upwards of 300 units are delivered, which given the "wiring harness imbroglio/botched industrial ra
162 Carpethead : Surprisingly nobody has mentioned new or additional orders from the Chinese carriers. MU is, certainly, a candidate to operate the WhaleJet. Big order
163 MotorHussy : A fleet of 5 long-haul jets is the threshold for efficiency. The double daily AKL-LHR flights requires just that. NZ has fifth freedom rights to carr
164 Sebolino : BA doesn't own a single Airbus widebody, and came very slowly to the first Airbus. They have a tradition of buying Boeing and I would be surprised to
165 Post contains images Dazeflight : AA, UA, CO, NW? It goes both ways btw: There's a good good reason why quite a few of the world's leading airlines have ordered the A380.
166 Post contains images Naritaflyer : I think the 380 will be primarily a tradition flag carrier product like LH, BA, CX, SQ, JL and so on. Not for second-tier carriers. For what it's wort
167 Stitch : SQ must fear not ony the advent of "viable" ULR traffic but also the rise of new airports like DXB and HKG which, down the road, could hurt SIN's stat
168 Bnamaxx : Yes, an impressive list. Just as impressive as say NH, CX, BA, JL, CI, CA, AI, LY, PK, NZ and others. Now don't everyone start picking each one of th
169 Arturo88 : This is a great plane. I hope one of those comes to MEX.
170 Gbfra : This thread is indeed hilarious. It is of no importance whether the A380 will beat any track record of the B747. It is equally of no importance whethe
171 Glareskin : So far from this list only LH and SQ ordered. IMO CX and BA will follow when the time is there. But do you really think JL will order? I mean, it is
172 Stitch : As JL didn't express buying interest in the 745, the 746, the 74X, and the 74A, "loyalty" might have nothing to do with JL buying - or in this case,
173 Leelaw : Rationalizations in the form of cliches and platitudes are sometimes best countered by citing the same in rebuttal: those who don't learn from histor
174 Thebry : And wait and wait and wait... (300 frames is a ways off...)
175 Gbfra : Well, to say that the future is not predictable might be a cliche for some people but it's sheer, and empirically sound, truth. In a dynamic market ec
176 OldAeroGuy : Thank you Bill (or Ted?) (or Socrates?)
177 Unicorn : Qantas is likely to take up some of their options. A delegation from senior management and the Qantas board are travelling to Toulouse to negotiate a
178 Post contains images Stitch : While I agree that it is very likely QF will convert A380 options to orders (SQ doing so probably tied their hands), the 748I is not exactly a "new t
179 WingedMigrator : Not so sure. At max payload, the 748F can barely reach Japan, China or Hawaii from Sydney. This is where a cargo plane with above 5000 nm range might
180 Gemuser : Sorry to be picky, again! The 12 aircraft on order will cover 1 daily MEL-LAX(2 aircraft), 1 (out of 2) daily MEL-LHR(3), 1 (2) daily SYD-LHR(3) and
181 OldAeroGuy : I think we can remove Atlas from the list.
182 WINGS : Why should we? Doesn't UPS operate the B747F and has the A380F on order? Regards, Wings
183 OldAeroGuy : See my Reply 9 below. The 747F is acceptable for package freight. However, the A380F is better suited as it has more volume. For general market freig
184 Bnamaxx : First, I'm guessing you have a typo in here. I rather doubt PVD - Providence is 380 ready. You meant PVG perhaps? Also note of all these you list, on
185 Katekebo : It's interesting to see how people here compare the initial order numbers between B747 in 1969 against A380 in 2006 without adjusting for the changes
186 JoFMO : What also has changed is the step foreward the A380 is in comparison to the 747. The A380 is just a little bit bigger than the current aircrafts. It
187 Aerokiwi : I'm willing to bet about 50 million dollars that this will never happen. The onlycandidates from the potentials list above that I see of ever orderin
188 Dougloid : Interesting stuff Jacobin. A while ago we were having a discussion over on nonav on the Canadian dollar relative to the USD and one of our Canadian c
189 Leelaw : This thread has gotten quite long, but RedFlyer did make a similar observation earlier:
190 Jacobin777 : Airbus does contract transactions in US dollars, and then has its earnings, revenues, etc. changed to Euros.....until the 787, Airbus had the advanta
191 Stitch : In addition to their sales, as Jacobin777 noted, many of Airbus suppliers are paid in dollars. Airbus has done some (IMO) truly magnificent hedging t
192 TeamAmerica : Way off topic, but I think you should consider what that would do to the US economy before you say it "should". This would not be a good thing for us
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