WINGS From Portugal, joined May 2005, 2831 posts, RR: 68 Posted (7 years 12 months 3 days 15 hours ago) and read 18351 times:
Looking at the current number of A380's on order + options, it's truly amazing to see how well this particular family of aircraft has done before entry into commercial service.
The market for such a plane as the A380 has been and still is regarded by many as rather limited, yet after numerous delays it's numbers are steadily growing. With many current A380 customers expected to convert it's options into firm orders,s Airbus should close 2006 with additional commitments. So far we have had Singapore Airlines signing a LOI for 9 + 6 , while it has been rumoured for some time that LH is also close to converting it's options. Conversion of current options could also trigger other airlines to also reconsider it's options.
Airbus target for each year is to attract two additional airlines to join the A380 program. The question remains as to which airlines will be the most likely candidates to fill that role in the coming years. With less than 120 days to go until 2007, it's going to be interesting to see if Airbus holding back for a big finale.
My guess as to who will jump onboard the A380 program in 2006 is China Airlines and Asiana + SAA (via ILFC)
BA has stated many times it will place no orders for new aircraft until it's move to T5 is over, and the Pensions Deficit issue is resolved. So don't expect anything until after March '08, according to Mr Walsh, on this basis.
It's also using this statement, and timescale, to allow Boeing and Airbus to draw up their "battle plans" to negotiate the best terms. BA are in a strong position in this respect
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UPS and Fedex are more package carriers than large freight operators, unlike Atlas etc. UPS ordered some B747F's recently to accomodate the large freight that the A380 can't get through the side doors.
Scaledesigns From United States of America, joined Aug 2006, 211 posts, RR: 0
Reply 14, posted (7 years 12 months 3 days 12 hours ago) and read 17786 times:
The plane will need to have the floor redesigned if they want to get any "real"
cargo operators to buy them.Fedex and UPS are small package operations,
not true cargo operators.Fedex does have have huge cargo contracts with the USPO(again small package only).For those who dont agree,go down to
Fedex and try to ship a container of car parts on Fedex.
Leelaw From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 21, posted (7 years 12 months 3 days 11 hours ago) and read 17563 times:
Quoting Andz (Reply 19): SAA are not in the market for 380s.
...Hamilton-Manns said it would be feasible to acquire A380s if South African passengers could be persuaded to fly to or from the UK in daylight, so that the expensive plane would not waste 12 hours waiting on the tarmac...
Airbazar From United States of America, joined Sep 2003, 8314 posts, RR: 10
Reply 22, posted (7 years 12 months 3 days 11 hours ago) and read 17563 times:
I think SAA and Air China are the most likely candidate. KLM, no way. AF will be the only operator of A380's in the KL/AF group. Much like LH will only base their A380's at FRA, I think it would be too costly to have A380's based at both AMS and CDG.
Lightsaber From United States of America, joined Jan 2005, 13012 posts, RR: 100
Reply 23, posted (7 years 12 months 3 days 11 hours ago) and read 17501 times:
Quoting Alessandro (Reply 7): KLM perhaps,since there joint-venture with AF. The Suriname route could fill
up an A380 a few times a week.
KLM is my vote for the most likely next order. It also wouldn't suprise me to see Cathay step up and order A380's.
Ibera, Northwest, United and British airways all have a decent chance. BA will negotiate like anything. Will they order 77W's/788's? You can expect them to force Boeing and Airbus to win that order. As to NW and UA, that will depend on financing.
As to SAA... I don't know. It seems like they could fill the A380's, but would they buy enough to justify the added complexity? I honestly do not know.
Personally, I expect a bunch of "top off" orders from the initial buyers *if* they are happy with the A380 performance (which I expect them to be). This alone will keep the line going another two years. If the A388R (extended range) can be made to do SYD-LHR (doubt it, but worth the try), I would expect a large +up order from Quantas.
Personally, the Indian airlines are the ones who could benifit the most from the A380 lift... If Kingfisher is a success, I expect them to order an EK number of A380's. IF... a powerfull two letter word.
Quoting OldAeroGuy (Reply 9): I doubt that any general cargo operator, such as Atlas or Cargolux will order the A380F.
the floor loading simply isn't high enough on the A388F. Its fine for package carriers like Fedex and UPS, but Polar et al need the high floor loading and occasionally the big door. If the A380 delivers "good enough" performance, I have no doubt Fedex will buy all of their options.
Societies that achieve a critical mass of ideas achieve self sustaining growth; others stagnate.
Andz From South Africa, joined Feb 2004, 8451 posts, RR: 10
Reply 24, posted (7 years 12 months 3 days 11 hours ago) and read 17493 times:
Quoting Leelaw (Reply 21): Hamilton-Manns said it would be feasible to acquire A380s if South African passengers could be persuaded to fly to or from the UK in daylight, so that the expensive plane would not waste 12 hours waiting on the tarmac...
You quote an article from February 2005? Is that the basis for this speculation about SAA? I could go back into the archives and put the same argument forward about 777s.
After Monday and Tuesday even the calendar says WTF...