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Y3 Vs Airbus 380  
User currently offlineBoeing7478i From United Arab Emirates, joined Aug 2006, 20 posts, RR: 0
Posted (8 years 2 months 4 weeks 3 hours ago) and read 8093 times:

Will the Y3 ever compete with the A380? The A380 is an aircraft which can carry 550-850 pax and from what I've heard, the Y3 is most definitely not going to be a double decker like the 747 and 380. So how is boeing going to compete with airbus? Unless boeing makes a B797-8XXXXXWB, or an extra long B797-10000000 (which I very much doubt would happen), how will it have that kind of capacity? I think there would be more 747 variants after the -8intercontinental because I doubt boeing leave the whole VLA market for Airbus.

35 replies: All unread, showing first 25:
 
User currently offlineDLKAPA From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 1, posted (8 years 2 months 4 weeks 3 hours ago) and read 8089 times:

How do you know how long any proposed 797 will be? How do you know they'll need that much stretch and not the original design? Your post gives more questions than answers.

In short, what are you talking about?


User currently offlineBoeing7478i From United Arab Emirates, joined Aug 2006, 20 posts, RR: 0
Reply 2, posted (8 years 2 months 4 weeks 3 hours ago) and read 8066 times:

Quoting DLKAPA (Reply 1):
How do you know how long any proposed 797 will be? How do you know they'll need that much stretch and not the original design? Your post gives more questions than answers.

In short, what are you talking about?

1.It was meant to give more questions than answers.
2. I'm talking about Y3. Don't you know about The yellowstone project? Since the Y1 is being called 737RS, I thought the Y3 would be called 797.


User currently offlineZvezda From Lithuania, joined Aug 2004, 10511 posts, RR: 64
Reply 3, posted (8 years 2 months 4 weeks 3 hours ago) and read 8066 times:

Quoting Boeing7478i (Thread starter):
Will the Y3 ever compete with the A380? The A380 is an aircraft which can carry 550-850 pax and from what I've heard, the Y3 is most definitely not going to be a double decker like the 747 and 380. So how is boeing going to compete with airbus?

Simple, better dispatch reliability (twin vs quad), lower CASM, better range, lower trip costs, lower manufacturing costs, better cabin pressure, etc. It's not that difficult to produce a better airliner ten years later than the competition.  Yeah sure


User currently offlineEBJ1248650 From United States of America, joined Jun 2005, 1932 posts, RR: 1
Reply 4, posted (8 years 2 months 4 weeks 2 hours ago) and read 8051 times:

Quoting Boeing7478i (Thread starter):
Will the Y3 ever compete with the A380?

Boeing doesn't appear to intend the Y3 to compete with the A380. It's intended to be a replacement for the 747 and the 777 so it's going to be a distinctive airplane that will effectively handle the types of flights made by the two aforementioned airplanes. Whether it will be a twin engine or four engine airplane remains to be seen and I suspect its size will depend on just what the user airlines want. I rather doubt it will be bigger than the 747-800 but believe it's apt to be somewhere between the 777 and 747. Then again it might have the 747-800's passenger capacity but would have a twin engine layout. Really remains to be seen at this stage.



Dare to dream; dream big!
User currently offlineAvObserver From United States of America, joined Apr 2002, 2472 posts, RR: 9
Reply 5, posted (8 years 2 months 4 weeks 2 hours ago) and read 7963 times:

Quoting Boeing7478i (Thread starter):
I think there would be more 747 variants after the -8intercontinental because I doubt boeing leave the whole VLA market for Airbus.

I think you're wrong about this. The -8 pretty much maxes out the 747's potential and will likely be the LAST 747 variant ever. Boeing would be better served by going to a new design after another 15-20 years, tops, assuming a higher capacity Y3 variant doesn't step in to fill the role. The 747-8 looks on paper to compete surprisingly well with the A388 but doesn't address the larger size niche Airbus will fill with the A380-900. Boeing will have to eventually design something all-new for this segment, which will grow in time. There's no way to further grow the 747 to handle 650-700+ seats.


User currently offlineBoeing7478i From United Arab Emirates, joined Aug 2006, 20 posts, RR: 0
Reply 6, posted (8 years 2 months 4 weeks 2 hours ago) and read 7939 times:

Quoting AvObserver (Reply 5):
The -8 pretty much maxes out the 747's potential and will likely be the LAST 747 variant ever. Boeing would be better served by going to a new design after another 15-20 years, tops, assuming a higher capacity Y3 variant doesn't step in to fill the role.

But boeing never said anything about a Y4.


User currently offlineGr8Circle From Canada, joined Dec 2005, 3124 posts, RR: 4
Reply 7, posted (8 years 2 months 4 weeks 1 hour ago) and read 7904 times:

Quoting Boeing7478i (Reply 6):
But boeing never said anything about a Y4.

Does Beoing tell you all its secrets in advance....? Do share them with us .... Big grin


User currently offlineGr8Circle From Canada, joined Dec 2005, 3124 posts, RR: 4
Reply 8, posted (8 years 2 months 4 weeks 1 hour ago) and read 7901 times:

Quoting Boeing7478i (Thread starter):
So how is boeing going to compete with airbus?

Why do Boeing have to compete with everything that airbus spins out...? I thought that was Airbus' obsession Big grin

We don't even know if the 380 is going to be a success....I'm sure B will wait and watch the success (or f_ _ _ _ ) of 380 before doing anything....


User currently offlineBoeing7478i From United Arab Emirates, joined Aug 2006, 20 posts, RR: 0
Reply 9, posted (8 years 2 months 4 weeks 1 hour ago) and read 7871 times:

Quoting Gr8Circle (Reply 8):
I thought that was Airbus' obsession

Yeah, they did copy the 787 with their A350NSWB.


User currently offlineZvezda From Lithuania, joined Aug 2004, 10511 posts, RR: 64
Reply 10, posted (8 years 2 months 4 weeks 1 hour ago) and read 7861 times:

Quoting Boeing7478i (Reply 9):
Yeah, they did copy the 787 with their A350NSWB.

I would say the A350 is more an (improved) copy of the B777 than of the B787. Regardless, to compete with the WhaleJet, Boeing need not produce an airliner the same size. Rather, Boeing need to produce an airliner with equal or better range, equal or smaller size, and lower CASM (including slot costs). That could be the B787-10.


User currently offlineHotelbravo From United States of America, joined Sep 2005, 57 posts, RR: 0
Reply 11, posted (8 years 2 months 4 weeks 1 hour ago) and read 7846 times:

Quoting Zvezda (Reply 10):
Boeing need to produce an airliner with equal or better range, equal or smaller size, and lower CASM (including slot costs). That could be the B787-10.

Agreed, but the fact is that, with a given set of technologies, the larger the aircraft the lower the CASM (assuming the plane is properly designed). So the 787-10 will always be vulnerable to being dethroned as CASM king by a larger aircraft.


User currently offlineZvezda From Lithuania, joined Aug 2004, 10511 posts, RR: 64
Reply 12, posted (8 years 2 months 4 weeks 1 hour ago) and read 7807 times:

Quoting Hotelbravo (Reply 11):
Agreed, but the fact is that, with a given set of technologies, the larger the aircraft the lower the CASM (assuming the plane is properly designed). So the 787-10 will always be vulnerable to being dethroned as CASM king by a larger aircraft.

That's why it might be attractive to Boeing to build Y3. Anyway, every CASM leader is eventually dethroned. Interestingly, the A350, B787, B747-8, and WhaleJet will all have roughly similar CASM.


User currently offlineAdria From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 13, posted (8 years 2 months 4 weeks ago) and read 7760 times:

Quoting Zvezda (Reply 12):
That's why it might be attractive to Boeing to build Y3. Anyway, every CASM leader is eventually dethroned. Interestingly, the A350, B787, B747-8, and WhaleJet will all have roughly similar CASM.

And your comment is based on what?

Quoting Gr8Circle (Reply 8):
We don't even know if the 380 is going to be a success....I'm sure B will wait and watch the success (or f_ _ _ _ ) of 380 before doing anything....

Exactly and the same goes for the 787 and 748 (although this one probably won't sell that good). Why this obsession whit "Y3"? let the 787 fly and in about 10-15 years who knows what the Y3 will look like.


User currently offlineLehpron From United States of America, joined Jul 2001, 7028 posts, RR: 21
Reply 14, posted (8 years 2 months 4 weeks ago) and read 7731 times:

Whenever whatever Y3 will be called comes out, it may more fill the gap between 777 and A380 than compete directly with A380 though the upper max of seating states as 600 pax:

http://content.answers.com/main/content/wp/en/1/13/BCA_Pax_Capacity.png

Quoting Boeing7478i (Reply 2):
Since the Y1 is being called 737RS, I thought the Y3 would be called 797.

Uh, no. Y1 and 737RS are two separate projects than share a common goal, i.e. they are not production names, not even like 7E7 was, RS meaning Replacement Study. There are many stages to decide to design an airplane. Having said that Y3 can be anything, and since 797 isn't officially assigned, no one knows for sure. But there are a lot of people who want a particular plane to be 797.

Quoting Gr8Circle (Reply 7):
Quoting Boeing7478i (Reply 6):
But boeing never said anything about a Y4.

Does Beoing tell you all its secrets in advance....? Do share them with us ....

Never and always are dangerous words; is it possible that Boeing/Airbus are not telling us everything, why should they? Companies have secrets to maintain an advantage from their competitors. Is it possible that there is always more to the story than what some of us here expect?  

Quoting Gr8Circle (Reply 8):
Quoting Boeing7478i (Thread starter):
So how is boeing going to compete with airbus?

Why do Boeing have to compete with everything that airbus spins out...?

This is business, there are only two major players in the commercial aviation market. This isn't about spin or who's better at making airplanes.

Speaking of 737RS, what if Boeing determines that with available technology, it is not yet feasible to replace the 737?

[Edited 2006-09-03 01:13:07]

[Edited 2006-09-03 01:15:17]


The meaning of life is curiosity; we were put on this planet to explore opportunities.
User currently offlineBaron95 From United States of America, joined May 2006, 1335 posts, RR: 8
Reply 15, posted (8 years 2 months 3 weeks 6 days 18 hours ago) and read 7540 times:

Quoting Boeing7478i (Thread starter):
Will the Y3 ever compete with the A380? The A380 is an aircraft which can carry 550-850 pax and from what I've heard, the Y3 is most definitely not going to be a double decker like the 747 and 380. So how is boeing going to compete with airbus? Unless boeing makes a B797-8XXXXXWB, or an extra long B797-10000000 (which I very much doubt would happen), how will it have that kind of capacity? I think there would be more 747 variants after the -8intercontinental because I doubt boeing leave the whole VLA market for Airbus.

I think Y3 can be a family a la A330/340 - a twin and a quad. I'd like to see a single deck, composite fuselage, bleedless engine, 3-isle 12 abreast 2-4-4-2, 300-400 passanger twin and 400-550 passanger quad in real world configs. The twin would use the largest GE-90NG engines, the quad the smallest. Length wise it will not have a problem fitting in an 80m box, but wing span will be a bitch - some form foldable wing tip or variable geometry or some mighty good winglet design plus very smart high lift design will be needed to keep wingspan in check. Will be quite a design though.

[Edited 2006-09-03 07:20:45]

[Edited 2006-09-03 07:22:19]


Killer Fleet: E190, 737-900ER, 777-300ER
User currently offlineColumba From Germany, joined Dec 2004, 7088 posts, RR: 4
Reply 16, posted (8 years 2 months 3 weeks 6 days 18 hours ago) and read 7529 times:

How can you compare an existing aircraft with one we don´t even know how it will look like ??


It will forever be a McDonnell Douglas MD 80 , Boeing MD 80 sounds so wrong
User currently offlineArt From United Kingdom, joined Feb 2005, 3391 posts, RR: 1
Reply 17, posted (8 years 2 months 3 weeks 6 days 18 hours ago) and read 7515 times:

Quoting Adria (Reply 13):
Quoting Gr8Circle (Reply 8):
We don't even know if the 380 is going to be a success....I'm sure B will wait and watch the success (or f_ _ _ _ ) of 380 before doing anything....

Exactly and the same goes for the 787

Apart from some major, major manufacturing problem arising, I do not understand how the 787 could not be seen as a success. IMO it is already outstandingly successful well before EIS.


User currently offlineSpruceMoose From United States of America, joined Jan 2006, 119 posts, RR: 0
Reply 18, posted (8 years 2 months 3 weeks 6 days 17 hours ago) and read 7477 times:

Quoting Baron95 (Reply 15):
Length wise it will not have a problem fitting in an 80m box, but wing span will be a bitch - some form foldable wing tip or variable geometry or some mighty good winglet design plus very smart high lift design will be needed to keep wingspan in check.

If they can keep MTOW less than that of the A380, then presumably they can keep inside the A380's wingspan.

-SpruceMoose



It flew at an altitude of six feet for a distance of four and a half feet. Then we discovered rain makes it catch fire.
User currently offlineMCIGuy From United States of America, joined Mar 2006, 1936 posts, RR: 0
Reply 19, posted (8 years 2 months 3 weeks 6 days 17 hours ago) and read 7436 times:

I think Boeing will top themselves and the 777. I expect Y3 to be a "super-duper" twin.
BTW, I also expect it to come after the 737 replacement so it'd be more like an "808". Big grin



Airliners.net Moderator Team
User currently offlineBaron95 From United States of America, joined May 2006, 1335 posts, RR: 8
Reply 20, posted (8 years 2 months 3 weeks 6 days 16 hours ago) and read 7391 times:

Quoting SpruceMoose (Reply 18):
If they can keep MTOW less than that of the A380, then presumably they can keep inside the A380's wingspan.

I was just taking into account that as a single decker/12-abreast it would have a much wider fuselage (by about 4 feet) with correspondently less wingspan to fit in the same box. I was also assuming that Boeing would like to keep wingspan to 744 dimentions for airport and hangar compatibility. Put those two together and we have challenging wing to design. I do expect the MTOW to be somewhat lower then the A380 for sure. The key question is, can all the versions be a twin? That would be awesome. A 500 passanger twin. Ouch.



Killer Fleet: E190, 737-900ER, 777-300ER
User currently offlineZvezda From Lithuania, joined Aug 2004, 10511 posts, RR: 64
Reply 21, posted (8 years 2 months 3 weeks 6 days 16 hours ago) and read 7383 times:

Quoting Baron95 (Reply 15):
I think Y3 can be a family a la A330/340 - a twin and a quad.

I'd say there's about a 0% chance of that. Y3, if built, will almost certainly be a twin.

Quoting Baron95 (Reply 15):
I'd like to see a single deck, composite fuselage, bleedless engine, 3-isle 12 abreast 2-4-4-2,

That would require an interior cabin width of more than 300 inches. Even with an 84 inch cargo hold ceiling height (to accommodate full-height pallets), a circular fuselage of that size would provide at least a B767 worth of space in the crown. It would certainly be possible to put passenger seating only on the maindeck, but the crown would have ample space for the cockpit, crew rest, galleys, most lavs, passenger sleeping bunks, gate checked baggage, etc. Not having passenger seating upstairs means not needing emergency exits upstairs.

Quoting Baron95 (Reply 15):
Length wise it will not have a problem fitting in an 80m box, but wing span will be a bitch - some form foldable wing tip or variable geometry or some mighty good winglet design plus very smart high lift design will be needed to keep wingspan in check.

An 11 abreast Y3 should have a MTOW similar to that of the JumboJet. Wingspan would probably be in or close to the 70 to 75 meter range. Even the 2-4-4-2 design you suggest would have a MTOW similar to that of the WhaleJet and would not be terribly constrained by an 80 meter wing.


User currently offlineBaron95 From United States of America, joined May 2006, 1335 posts, RR: 8
Reply 22, posted (8 years 2 months 3 weeks 6 days 16 hours ago) and read 7359 times:

Quoting Zvezda (Reply 21):
circular fuselage of that size would provide at least a B767 worth of space in the crown.

Just like the 787 fuselage is not circular, I don't expect Y3 to be either. I think with very upright side walls, thinner wall structure, 17.5"seats and isles (remember with 3 isles they don't need to be that wide), even leaving out staggered seating, I'd say 280 inches external width is do-able. A horizontal oval (like Cessna's 400 series twins) with a vertical side wall would be very efficient. If you are going to use third-generation composites, you have to take advantage of complex fuselage shapes. A 75x75m design even if twin-engined with 125Klbs thrust should be good for some 450 passangers at 8000 nm.



Killer Fleet: E190, 737-900ER, 777-300ER
User currently offlineZvezda From Lithuania, joined Aug 2004, 10511 posts, RR: 64
Reply 23, posted (8 years 2 months 3 weeks 6 days 15 hours ago) and read 7320 times:

Quoting Baron95 (Reply 22):
I think with very upright side walls, thinner wall structure, 17.5"seats and isles (remember with 3 isles they don't need to be that wide), even leaving out staggered seating, I'd say 280 inches external width is do-able.

That's 210 inches for seat bottoms, plus 32 inches for armrests, plus 54 inches for aisles, plus 4 inches for fuselage clearance is 300 inches of minimum interior cabin width -- with very narrow 18 inch aisles. How to put a 300 inch interior cabin width in a 280 inch exterior fuselage width is a trick I haven't learned yet.  Wink

Quoting Baron95 (Reply 22):
A 75x75m design even if twin-engined with 125Klbs thrust should be good for some 450 passangers at 8000 nm.

Depends on what it weighs.


User currently offlineLehpron From United States of America, joined Jul 2001, 7028 posts, RR: 21
Reply 24, posted (8 years 2 months 3 weeks 6 days 15 hours ago) and read 7306 times:

Quoting Baron95 (Reply 15):
Length wise it will not have a problem fitting in an 80m box,

The box is arbitrary, besides, can we go for the 113m diagonals? Such a plane should force new procedures for boarding.

Quoting Art (Reply 17):
I do not understand how the 787 could not be seen as a success. IMO it is already outstandingly successful well before EIS

Ah, "seen" as a success? How you and others see it doesn't matter until it is built and is stress tests like every other airplane before they actually go into service. Mind you, I'm not making a decision on the thing either way, however you and many others seem to be judging by orders alone.

Keep in mind though, 787 is a "product for an existing and well established market", it is a no brainer what kind of success awaits it. Note the latter; and BTW, 'not proven' does not equal 'will not work'



The meaning of life is curiosity; we were put on this planet to explore opportunities.
25 Post contains images Rheinbote : Second that.
26 Post contains images Baron95 : What armrests? We are talking the "friendly skies" here. Point well taken, though. I forgot the extra isle in the calculation.
27 Zvezda : Trust me, there is absolutely no way that a 2-4-4-2 configuration will have less than about 300 inches of interior cabin width. If Y3 were to have su
28 Molykote : A perfect index of a.net buzzwords! (composite, bleedless, 3 aisle, GE-90, etc )
29 Thorben : This chart seems very ominous to me. 300-600 pax with one aircraft family? Doesn't seem very realistic, what kind of fuselage is that supposed to be?
30 Zvezda : I thought the same thing. The chart is not dated. I suspect it predates the B787-10.
31 Jacobin777 : who says it will be the standard fuselage shape....the BWB concept has a lot of merit..as well as different thrust specifications...
32 AirbusA6 : By the same logic, the 777 is an improved copy of the A330!!! I would imagine Y3 will replace the larger 777 derivatives and 747, leaving the 772 rep
33 Dw747400 : I doubt the Y3 will retain a nose door, but I bet Boeing goes the extra mile to ensure it is still a very good freighter. I think freight operations
34 Thorben : I wonder whether this Y3 is really going to be built, Boeing will have the 787-10, the 77W, and the 747-8. I can't imagine they'll build something big
35 Zvezda : If Boeing can produce a Y3 with 20% lower CASM than the B787-10, A350-1000, B747-8 SuperJumbo, and the WhaleJet (and 30% lower than the B777-300ER),
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