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Rumour: AA Looks At South Africa  
User currently onlineMAH4546 From Sweden, joined Jan 2001, 32620 posts, RR: 72
Posted (7 years 10 months 4 weeks 1 day 2 hours ago) and read 9418 times:

Just the regular disclaimer that this is a rumour, so take it with a grain of salt, but an interesting one none the less.

Just recently I have heard that American Airlines, in the case that they lose their Dallas-China application, is strongly considering using the plane designated for DFW-PEK (currently flying SJC-NRT; switching to JFK-EZE next month through April) is considering service to South Africa, from Miami. The daily 777-200ER service would most likely operate via a third point in west Africa, as it would eliminate cargo restrictions and a non-stop would require the flight to go to Cape Town (and then onto Jo'Burg), which is a weaker yielding market. The third point would be Lagos, Dakar, or Accra. AA would perfer Lagos, since it the yield is spectacular, but there are many safety concerns and it is a corrupt country to do business in. Dakar is the "safe route", offers good local demand from South Florida, but is also becoming over-saturated with daily flights to Atlanta, New York City, and Washington. Accra is traditionally a very stable market, also strong yielding, but there is less demand than Lagos or Dakar. Geographically, the move makes sense. Miami in itself is one of the largest USA-Africa travel markets, and MIA is well postioned for strong feed from other key markets - Toronto, Houston, Dallas, Chicago, and Los Angeles. And if DFW-PEK doesn't get the go, it doesn't mean South Africa flights will, because there are dozens of other opportunities (like the long rumoured ORD-HKG) being looked at as well.

With the way AA has been "expanding" lately, by closing down smaller long-haul stations to focus on larger ones, it does not sound in line with anything AA would do. Though, then again, they have taken a few successful moves in the past two years - such as Chicago-Delhi, Chicago-Dublin, and Miami-Montevideo - that also defy their normal strategy.

I personally feel the Africa-USA market will see significant traffic increases starting in the early 2010s, so it would be nice if AA joins Delta in taking a head start.

In my opinion, the rumour makes logical sense, if true. However, I don't think AA will follow through with it. I do think AA flying to Africa from Miami in the future is a very realistic possibility, but that they will wait for new aircraft, such as the 787 that would do MIA-JNB non-stop with ease, for it.

[Edited 2006-09-05 22:24:09]


a.
72 replies: All unread, showing first 25:
 
User currently offlineCommavia From United States of America, joined Apr 2005, 11439 posts, RR: 61
Reply 1, posted (7 years 10 months 4 weeks 1 day 2 hours ago) and read 9375 times:

I think that if AA were to try a Miami-Africa flight, it would be immensely successful. The market is there, and geographically, MIA would offer excellent connections to other parts of the U.S., including major U.S. cities like L.A., San Francisco, Dallas, Houston, Chicago, Atlanta, Boston, New York, Philadelphia, D.C., etc.

Personally, I think that a daily 777 MIA-ACC-JNB and a daily 767-300 MIA-LOS-NBO would all be successful.


User currently offlineEvan767 From United States of America, joined Aug 2005, 2957 posts, RR: 2
Reply 2, posted (7 years 10 months 4 weeks 1 day 2 hours ago) and read 9300 times:

Where exactly did this rumor originate?


The proper term is "on final" not "on finals" bud...
User currently offlineJfk777 From United States of America, joined Aug 2006, 8286 posts, RR: 7
Reply 3, posted (7 years 10 months 4 weeks 1 day 2 hours ago) and read 9262 times:
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Miami-J'Berg-CPT-Miami. I fondly remember the SAA 744 nonstop both ways for most of the 1990's from CPT-MIA-CPT. If AA is going to wimp out and stop in west africa then 763, IF they have the guts to go nonstop then 777.
Flying nonstop to J'berg is the only way to go.


User currently offlineBigGSFO From United States of America, joined Jun 2005, 2915 posts, RR: 6
Reply 4, posted (7 years 10 months 4 weeks 1 day 1 hour ago) and read 9226 times:

What about MIA-CPT-JNB-CPT-MIA? How bad are the restrictions non-stop to/from CPT?

Either way, it would be an interesting rumor to see come true.


User currently offlineAA767400 From United States of America, joined Jan 2001, 2333 posts, RR: 26
Reply 5, posted (7 years 10 months 4 weeks 1 day 1 hour ago) and read 9203 times:

I know it's crazy but here goes: MIA-SJU-CPT, or MIA-SJU-JNB?

Would that eliminate the need for fueling?



"The low fares airline."
User currently onlineMAH4546 From Sweden, joined Jan 2001, 32620 posts, RR: 72
Reply 6, posted (7 years 10 months 4 weeks 1 day 1 hour ago) and read 9185 times:

Quoting BigGSFO (Reply 4):
What about MIA-CPT-JNB-CPT-MIA? How bad are the restrictions non-stop to/from CPT?

Not as bad, but I believe with AA's 772ERs, still not good enough to forgoe a west Africa stop.

Quoting AA767400 (Reply 5):
I know it's crazy but here goes: MIA-SJU-CPT, or MIA-SJU-JNB?

Would that eliminate the need for fueling?

No, it would not elimiate the need, and AA would probably perfer to take on weight restrictins and go non-stop over stopping in San Juan.



a.
User currently offlineMiaskies From United States of America, joined Jun 2004, 1347 posts, RR: 1
Reply 7, posted (7 years 10 months 4 weeks 1 day 1 hour ago) and read 9185 times:

Hmmm nice rumour and truthfully I too see it as a strong possibility. We have had the service before with SA why not with AA? The market is there... seems like a winner.

Quick note, I just flew AA from MIA for my labor day weekend up in Long Island (via JFK) and was talking to some AA and Airport Employees about service there and future airlines and one mentioned that a rumour had been flying around about possible Miami-Dubai service on Emirates as wild and exotic as that sounds, is that possible? I also saw this on a map they have in front of Concourse E where it shows current routes and "future routes"



Nothing better than making love at 35K Feet!
User currently onlineMAH4546 From Sweden, joined Jan 2001, 32620 posts, RR: 72
Reply 8, posted (7 years 10 months 4 weeks 1 day 1 hour ago) and read 9163 times:

Quoting Miaskies (Reply 7):
one mentioned that a rumour had been flying around about possible Miami-Dubai service on Emirates as wild and exotic as that sounds, is that possible?

Emirates as listed Miami as one of one dozen planned North American destinations. At least 3-5 years off.



a.
User currently offlineBlink182 From Azerbaijan, joined Oct 1999, 5480 posts, RR: 15
Reply 9, posted (7 years 10 months 4 weeks 1 day 1 hour ago) and read 9017 times:

I just read that Delta got rights to fly ATL- Africa with a 763. Even if DFW-PEK gets approved and requires the allotted number of 777s, does AA have enough 763s to devote to MIA-Africa?


Give me a break, I created this username when I was a kid...
User currently offlineElmoTheHobo From United States of America, joined Aug 2006, 1536 posts, RR: 1
Reply 10, posted (7 years 10 months 4 weeks 23 hours ago) and read 8856 times:

Blink182,

Yes. With MAN-MIA, BOS-CDG and ORD-GLA no longer operating or closing up shop by summer 2007 and RDU-LGW being upgraded to a 777 (temporary I'd guess), American will have 3 767s available for summer time.

That doesn't include 767s that are operated in the Caribbean and Domestically that could be replaced by other domestic aircraft.

Point being, yes, American does have enough aircraft for a least one daily round trip frequency to Africa.


User currently onlineMAH4546 From Sweden, joined Jan 2001, 32620 posts, RR: 72
Reply 11, posted (7 years 10 months 4 weeks 23 hours ago) and read 8841 times:

Quoting ElmoTheHobo (Reply 10):

Yes. With MAN-MIA, BOS-CDG and ORD-GLA no longer operating or closing up shop by summer 2007 and RDU-LGW being upgraded to a 777 (temporary I'd guess), American will have 3 767s available for summer time.

MAN-MIA never operated during the winter, and with a new redeye frequency on MIA-GRU and a second daily year-round MIA-GIG, those planes are already allocated.



a.
User currently offlineB4real From United States of America, joined Aug 2003, 2629 posts, RR: 5
Reply 12, posted (7 years 10 months 4 weeks 23 hours ago) and read 8804 times:

Quoting AA767400 (Reply 5):
I know it's crazy but here goes: MIA-SJU-CPT, or MIA-SJU-JNB

As MAH piped in earlier, I don't think that would fly. No pun intended. Simply put, the intermediary would need to have some value for cargo and O&D. LOS, DKR, and ACC have that value added in the stop. SJU would add a very, very, small amount of pax traffic - making it a non-efficient stop. The 3 cities listed earlier would be a better stop.



B4REAL, spelled like it sounds
User currently offlineElmoTheHobo From United States of America, joined Aug 2006, 1536 posts, RR: 1
Reply 13, posted (7 years 10 months 4 weeks 23 hours ago) and read 8781 times:

Quoting MAH4546 (Reply 11):
MAN-MIA never operated during the winter, and with a new redeye frequency on MIA-GRU and a second daily year-round MIA-GIG, those planes are already allocated.

I may be mistaken, but the second daily MIA-GIG uses the slot and aircraft from the second daily DFW-GRU, therefore there is no additional usage.

The new redeye frequency only requires one additional aircraft. If anything, two aircraft would be available. Please correct me if I am mistaken.


User currently offlineCayMan From Canada, joined Aug 2003, 905 posts, RR: 9
Reply 14, posted (7 years 10 months 4 weeks 23 hours ago) and read 8724 times:

There has been lots of idle speculation and/or rumor of AC considering a YYZ-FLL-JNB or YYZ-MIA-JNB flight, along the lines of what's planned for YYZ-LAX-SYD. If AA proceeds that might end the AC possibility, if there ever was one.

On the other hand, presumably AC could do MIA-JNB non stop on the new 772LR, which AA cannot do with the 772ER?

Either way MIA seems like a logical market for S Africa traffic. AC might have a bit of an edge if it originated a flight in YYZ which would have a strong stand alone market for S Africa in its own right.

All very interesting.


User currently onlineMAH4546 From Sweden, joined Jan 2001, 32620 posts, RR: 72
Reply 15, posted (7 years 10 months 4 weeks 23 hours ago) and read 8701 times:

Quoting CayMan (Reply 14):
There has been lots of idle speculation and/or rumor of AC considering a YYZ-FLL-JNB or YYZ-MIA-JNB flight, along the lines of what's planned for YYZ-LAX-SYD. If AA proceeds that might end the AC possibility, if there ever was one.

AC has been looking at it according to reliable rumours. However, there are two major problems:

1) Canada and South Africa have no recognized air treaty.

2) South Africans contiuning onto Canada would need a US Visa.



a.
User currently offlineSLCUT2777 From United States of America, joined Dec 2005, 4028 posts, RR: 11
Reply 16, posted (7 years 10 months 4 weeks 22 hours ago) and read 8635 times:

Quoting CayMan (Reply 14):
On the other hand, presumably AC could do MIA-JNB non stop on the new 772LR, which AA cannot do with the 772ER?

AC could do a YYZ-JNB route direct without stopping in ATL, FLL or MIA with a 772LR (if they ordered enough of that model). While Canada carriers can stop in the USA and vice versa, it doesn't make sense to do it if you have the aircraft that has the range.
Big version: Width: 481 Height: 241 File size: 6kb
YYZ-JNB
Keep in mind the range of a Boeing 772LR is 9400nm and this route is about 7250nm.



DELTA Air Lines; The Only Way To Fly from Salt Lake City; Let the Western Heritage always be with Delta!
User currently offlineBnamaxx From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 17, posted (7 years 10 months 4 weeks 22 hours ago) and read 8615 times:

Lots of talk about AA "starting" service. Do they have traffic rights for this? I'm assuming they just don't go announcing they are going into South Africa. Funny how the rumor mill works on a.net sometimes. No U.S. carrier has flown into South Africa for years now all of a sudden two want the rights? Seems odd.

User currently offlineSLCUT2777 From United States of America, joined Dec 2005, 4028 posts, RR: 11
Reply 18, posted (7 years 10 months 4 weeks 22 hours ago) and read 8574 times:

Quoting Bnamaxx (Reply 17):
Lots of talk about AA "starting" service. Do they have traffic rights for this? I'm assuming they just don't go announcing they are going into South Africa. Funny how the rumor mill works on a.net sometimes. No U.S. carrier has flown into South Africa for years now all of a sudden two want the rights? Seems odd.

DL was just formally awarded rights to serve ATL-JNB via DKR. They still need to be formally given the rights from Senegal to make the fuel/tech stop, but Africa many analysts now expect will see a higher North American growth rate than Asia will over the next 5-6 years. Hence the speculation for AC in addition to AA.



DELTA Air Lines; The Only Way To Fly from Salt Lake City; Let the Western Heritage always be with Delta!
User currently onlineMAH4546 From Sweden, joined Jan 2001, 32620 posts, RR: 72
Reply 19, posted (7 years 10 months 4 weeks 22 hours ago) and read 8541 times:

Quoting Bnamaxx (Reply 17):
Lots of talk about AA "starting" service. Do they have traffic rights for this?

Traffic rights are easy to acquire for US-South Africa. There are 14 open slots.

Quoting Bnamaxx (Reply 17):
No U.S. carrier has flown into South Africa for years now all of a sudden two want the rights? Seems odd.

You mean like with Delhi, Berlin, Stockholm, Edinburgh, Nagoya, Hamburg, and Copenhagen? Or was it just "funny" that US airlines (and Emirates in the case of HAM) opened up trans-Atlantic routes to those markets, sometimes within days of each other? Airlines often follow others. Nothing new here.

[Edited 2006-09-06 02:35:13]


a.
User currently offlineJacobin777 From United States of America, joined Sep 2004, 14968 posts, RR: 60
Reply 20, posted (7 years 10 months 4 weeks 22 hours ago) and read 8530 times:

Quoting MAH4546 (Thread starter):
. The third point would be Lagos, Dakar, or Accra. AA would perfer Lagos, since it the yield is spectacular, but there are many safety concerns and it is a corrupt country to do business in.

LOS might be corrupt and there might be potential safety concerns.., but carriers do make their way there.....VS and BA to name a couple...

Quoting MAH4546 (Thread starter):
(like the long rumoured ORD-HKG) being looked at as well.

gosh..I've been saying for a while AA should try to get this route...UA sends 1-2 744's daily.....AA's 777's should have enough legs to do the trip......

Quoting Miaskies (Reply 7):
Quick note, I just flew AA from MIA for my labor day weekend up in Long Island (via JFK) and was talking to some AA and Airport Employees about service there and future airlines and one mentioned that a rumour had been flying around about possible Miami-Dubai service on Emirates as wild and exotic as that sounds, is that possible? I also saw this on a map they have in front of Concourse E where it shows current routes and "future routes"

darn..for a second, I thought you wrote that AA might try JFK-DXB..now that would be a sight to see-with EK soon to be flying 3x/daily (2-nonstop and one via HAM) the market is certainly there....that being said, I did see DL's plane in DXB back during the summer of 2001..was cool to see.. spin 

Regarding the United States, I think EK will go for ORD/LAX/SFO first....



"Up the Irons!"
User currently offlineBrenintw From Taiwan, joined Jul 2006, 1612 posts, RR: 1
Reply 21, posted (7 years 10 months 4 weeks 22 hours ago) and read 8483 times:

Quoting SLCUT2777 (Reply 16):
AC could do a YYZ-JNB route direct without stopping in ATL, FLL or MIA with a 772LR

Wouldn't there be ETOPS problems with a direct route like that?

Bren



I'm tired of the A vs. B sniping. Neither make planes that shed wings randomly!
User currently offlineSLCUT2777 From United States of America, joined Dec 2005, 4028 posts, RR: 11
Reply 22, posted (7 years 10 months 4 weeks 21 hours ago) and read 8474 times:

Speaking of geographical oddities, look at some of the distances between J'berg and some North American cities in question:
MIA-JNB with AA:
Big version: Width: 480 Height: 240 File size: 6kb
MIA-JNB 7005nm

ATL-JNB with DL
Big version: Width: 480 Height: 240 File size: 6kb
ATL-JNB 7334nm

NYC-JFK with DL or AA
Big version: Width: 481 Height: 241 File size: 6kb
JFK-JNB 6925nm

I've listed the distances in nautical miles.



DELTA Air Lines; The Only Way To Fly from Salt Lake City; Let the Western Heritage always be with Delta!
User currently offlineLipeGIG From Brazil, joined May 2005, 11419 posts, RR: 59
Reply 23, posted (7 years 10 months 4 weeks 21 hours ago) and read 8461 times:
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FORUM MODERATOR

Quoting ElmoTheHobo (Reply 13):
The new redeye frequency only requires one additional aircraft. If anything, two aircraft would be available. Please correct me if I am mistaken.

They will use 2 aircrafts as nowadays they use the same 763 used on GRU-MIA night flight. For the new night flight they will really need 2 more aircrafts as 1 will be parked during the day at GRU.

Felipe



New York + Rio de Janeiro = One of the best combinations !
User currently offlineSLCUT2777 From United States of America, joined Dec 2005, 4028 posts, RR: 11
Reply 24, posted (7 years 10 months 4 weeks 21 hours ago) and read 8447 times:

Quoting Brenintw (Reply 21):
Wouldn't there be ETOPS problems with a direct route like that?

3 hour ETOPs should cover this route fine. There are also contingency airfields on Ascension and St Helena in the case of ATL or MIA that could be utilized. But there is also the word going around that the 772LR "might" be ETOPs certified for 4-5 hours.



DELTA Air Lines; The Only Way To Fly from Salt Lake City; Let the Western Heritage always be with Delta!
25 PlaneGuy27 : Actually the U.S. and Senegal have an Open Skies agreement so there are no restrictions on U.S. carriers operating into Dakar or beyond. And the only
26 MAH4546 : Correct about GIG. However, the new MIA-GRU frequency needs two new 763s. Currently, only four planes are needed for the MIA-GRU flights. One does a
27 SLCUT2777 : Which is why if DL wants this to work over the long term they better get a 772LR working it as I posted above, or at least an 772ER if the DKR stop i
28 Jc2354 : Does anyone know the SA schedules/times when they flew the nonstop service between mia and jnb? Thanks Jack
29 Post contains images LTU932 : True, but hot and high conditions might affect things if AC decides to take off from JNB in daylight. That unless they go for the GE90-115B on their
30 PanAm747 : Okay, here's a strategy that perhaps might increase options for North America - Africa flights: 1) The Senegalese government improves their airport to
31 Behramjee : in a perfect risk free world, AA would love to route their JNB flights via LOS from MIA. however the law & order situation in LOS does not allow them
32 Cubsrule : It seems like the liklihood of this route taking shape depends on two things. One is obvious, the other not so much. First, enough growth in the US-Af
33 FLY2LIM : OK, I may be missing the mark here, but what about MIA-GIG/GRU/EZE-JNB? FLY2LIM
34 Post contains images FXramper : Adding to the rumor... AA will get DFW-PEK, but will also apply for Africa frequencies. They'll also order 739 and 787 around November.
35 MAH4546 : Agreed on both points. AA has a significant local traffic advantage with Miami versus Atlanta, but it remains to be seen if that can make up for it.
36 Post contains images FXramper :
37 ElmoTheHobo : You it as if relying on O/D will be a problem for American. Miami a lot of traffic to Africa, most of which goes over hubs in Europe. American would
38 SLCUT2777 : Oh yes! The Hot & High factor can affect wide-body departures there as they do here in SLC. How long is the longest runway at JNB? While CPT doesn't
39 Brenintw : I believe the longest R/W at JNB is 4,500 m. BA flies LHR-CPT -- it used to be (and may still be) a 744. SA flies 744's and 346's to CPT on a daily b
40 MAH4546 : British Airways, KLM, MAS, Singapore, Lufthansa, and Virgin Atlantic all fly to Cape Town.
41 SLCUT2777 : That is equal to 14,770' which is enough at that altitude to get a fully laden 772 off the runway and on its way to North America with no stops. With
42 MAH4546 : SAA flew ATL-CPT and MIA-CPT non-stop in the past. MIA-CPT moved to ATL-CPT, which was then discontinued to consolidate most long haul flying into JN
43 EurostarVA : Are you sure about this? I gather that LOS has become a relatively corruption-free airport with the entire airport management replaced by cleaner han
44 Post contains images SAA346 : Just a few observations. With SA going thru DKR twice a night each way with pretty well timed schedules I think DL will battle to pick up traffic on t
45 LouA340 : It was rather the fact that SAA didnt get the rights to carry passengers between ACC and IAD and so it was not economical for SAA as there woud be ve
46 Jfk777 : Atlanta has better feed then Miami, Miami has a better O & D market with many South Africans here. If CPT is the main market then AA should fly MIA-CP
47 ElmoTheHobo : True, but that assumes that AA gets ETOPS 180 for its 777s. With ETOPS 138, American's jets have to detour 3/4s of the way through the trip, which ma
48 Akizidy214 : How many airframes would it take to operate this route?
49 Jfk777 : Doesn't AA have ETOPS 207 with the flightsto Tokyo? 207 is for the small stretch over the aleutian island in Alaska.
50 BigGSFO : I would guess two. I also thought a stop-over in Brazil would capitlaize on two markets: MIA-SSA/REC-JNB would hit AA's desire to serve NE Brazil and
51 Willyj : I think this would be an excellent routing as well (especially GRU) but they don't have the rights to fly the route, and I doubt Brazil would grant t
52 Post contains links ElmoTheHobo : North America - Japan can be flown under flight rules for ETOPS 138. I don't know about that, but I'm refering to a pretty big "no-go" zone in the So
53 MAH4546 : Brazil would lilkely have no problems granting them. AA has 5th freedom rights from Brazil to Uruguay and Paraguay, although unused, while United has
54 Jfk777 : NONSTOP 777 is the ony way to go, US to South Africa stinks now because there is only one-stop ways to go. Not even the national airline SAA which had
55 MAH4546 : SAA was supposed to make a decission on MIA this August, but they are still studying it. They will likely announce MIA-CPT-JNB or ORD-SID-JNB in 2007
56 JGPH1A : J'bUrg - or more correctly, Jo'burg. To have a hub, you have to have an airline with more than 2 planes - DLA will always be a sad and lonely spoke i
57 WorldTraveler : DKR is a full revenue stop for DL. They intend to sell seats on both the transatlantic and intraAfrica segments. If they are refused rights to sell D
58 MAH4546 : UA does hold them, and has since they inherited them from Pan Am with the rest of their Latin American network. Another carrier cannot simply take th
59 Soups : SAA wanted SOLE ownership of ACC-USA routes, GCAA refused
60 Lumumba : Hi JGPH1A. Don't forget that normally they are going to place seven planes when the deal about Camair is done.(Brussels airlines) Regards Patrice[Edit
61 Post contains images SA7700 : SA203 JNB-CPT 17h40-19h40 CPT-MIA 20h55-05h25 SA204 MIA-CPT 17h00-12h40 CPT-JNB 13h40-15h40 I can say with an amount of certainty that SA will jump b
62 Gigneil : No, it isn't. NS
63 LipeGIG : The Brazil-US bilateral only allows Argentina, Chile, Uruguay and Paraguay. I never know UA get such rights, also Brazil-South Africa bilateral allow
64 WorldTraveler : Route authority is not a God-given right to block any competitor from a market. The DOT has consistently held that route authority that is not exerci
65 Lt-AWACS : [quote=MAH4546,reply=42]SAA flew ATL-CPT and MIA-CPT non-stop in the past. quote] For a short time in the 80s SAA flew to IAH. Apartheid killed the ro
66 Post contains images SAA346 : My bad In which case they deserver to lose it! Flew last year to somewhere in eastern Europe (damned if I can remember where) with an LH scheduler/pl
67 Jfk777 : Most people coming into JNB are not going to J'berg, there are going to Durban, Capetown and other destinations. The only reason J'berb exists is they
68 AJMIA : When will the new China route be awarded? AJMIA
69 SLCUT2777 : A 772LR could likely do it but at 5558' (1694m) J'berg ranks right up there with DEN and SLC for high altitude departures. DEN went to 16,000' with r
70 Cubsrule : Better be careful with this one. DL's inflight service, especially in international Y, has improved significantly over the past year. Perhaps it has
71 Post contains images SA7700 : Absolutely correct, Johannesburg only exists because diamonds were found at Kimberley, 282 miles southwest of the city . Johannesburg is the site of
72 Post contains images SA7700 : Well if that's the case, let the games begin! Rgds SA7700
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