PanAm_DC10 From Australia, joined Aug 2000, 3085 posts, RR: 90 Posted (3 years 2 months 3 weeks 6 days 13 hours ago) and read 14092 times:
AIRLINERS.NET CREW COMMUNITY MANAGER
Third delay of the A380 “likely,” says ILFC chief
Steven Udvar-Hazy, the chairman of giant International Lease Finance Corp., said Friday that a third delay for the Airbus A380 is likely. Problems with the wiring systems required for customization of the complicated interior systems are reported to be worse than thought and that another delay may be announced soon.
More details at the following link with the full article. I cannot attest to it's accuracy
We're Nuts From United States, joined Jun 2000, 5705 posts, RR: 31 Reply 2, posted (3 years 2 months 3 weeks 6 days 12 hours ago) and read 13984 times:
SkepticAll From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR: Reply 3, posted (3 years 2 months 3 weeks 6 days 12 hours ago) and read 13984 times:
See another 100+ post thread here! Anyway, if the boss over at ILFC believes further delays are to be anticipated, then I would image he is speaking as someone "in the know". I'm sure this announcement (unofficial as it is) comes as no real surprise to anyone here. This aircraft is unprecedented in scale and these delays are part of the natural process.
I'm sure folks are getting tired of hearing these words but they are as true now as they were six months ago.
Astuteman From United Kingdom (England), joined Jan 2005, 6301 posts, RR: 89 Reply 4, posted (3 years 2 months 3 weeks 6 days 12 hours ago) and read 13984 times:
Katekebo From United States, joined Apr 2001, 657 posts, RR: 6 Reply 7, posted (3 years 2 months 3 weeks 6 days 12 hours ago) and read 13808 times:
Quoting SkepticAll (Reply 3): This aircraft is unprecedented in scale and these delays are part of the natural process.
These issues are a proof of poor project management and lack of managerial vision. All major projects have challenges, but the project managers plan for them, anticipate them, and make interventions before they turn into disasters. The A380 delays are a major failure of Airbus management - they engaged in a bigger challenge than they could manage.
If you want to build a pyramid, you don't start with 40 slaves, you need 200,000 of them. Even the Egyptians 4,000 years ago knew how to plan and manage the resources required for a project, Airbus should know better.
Manni From Korea, joined Nov 2001, 4220 posts, RR: 25 Reply 8, posted (3 years 2 months 3 weeks 6 days 12 hours ago) and read 13685 times:
Quoting Katekebo (Reply 7): These issues are a proof of poor project management and lack of managerial vision. All major projects have challenges, but the project managers plan for them, anticipate them, and make interventions before they turn into disasters. The A380 delays are a major failure of Airbus management - they engaged in a bigger challenge than they could manage.
If you want to build a pyramid, you don't start with 40 slaves, you need 200,000 of them. Even the Egyptians 4,000 years ago knew how to plan and manage the resources required for a project, Airbus should know better.
Let's not get to excited over a potential delay. Mr. Hazy, no doubt a professional and respectable man in the industry, was speaking at the future of flight centre in Seattle and also in front of a Boeing crowd.
Aviator27 From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR: Reply 9, posted (3 years 2 months 3 weeks 6 days 12 hours ago) and read 13644 times:
After reading the article, a few things stood out at me which many of us have been stressing for a long time on this forum.
"As a coach passenger, we'd rather spend 12 hours in a 19 inch seat than a 17.2 inch seat. There are just no buts about that."
Using Boeing's own forecast for VLA over 20 years. If both manufacturers split the market 50/50, then Airbus will sell 495 of their A380's making the program profitable.
"The manufacturers can plug in any number they want whether reasonable or unreasonable to get almost any desired result. Thus the reader of all data, whether from Boeing, Airbus, or anyone else, should be taken with a certain amount of skepticism."
Any additional delay in the A380 program is unfortunate because I still think it will be a remarkable airplane from a passenger comfort standpoint. Boeing has already admitted wiring issues on the B787, but has maintained their program is still on track.
I fly back and forth between the Eastern USA and Asia in economy class. I have done 4 round trips in the past 8 months. I rather not spend the ridiculous sums of money for first/business class. A good economy class seat and service are on my mind. If airlines can offer better comfort at slightly lower costs than the B747, I will be all over it like frosting on a cake.
PanAm_DC10 From Australia, joined Aug 2000, 3085 posts, RR: 90 Reply 10, posted (3 years 2 months 3 weeks 6 days 11 hours ago) and read 13604 times:
AIRLINERS.NET CREW COMMUNITY MANAGER
Quoting Manni (Reply 8): Let's not get to excited over a potential delay. Mr. Hazy, no doubt a professional and respectable man in the industry, was speaking at the future of flight centre in Seattle and also in front of a Boeing crowd
Manni I do understand and accept your point however Mr Udvar Hazy is accountable to his stockholders and coprorate governemance requires that he report such news immediatly. The more so after the parent holding company of ILFC, AIG, came under intense regulatory investigation.
Quoting PanAm_DC10 (Thread starter): More details at the following link with the full article. I cannot attest to it's accuracy
I believe we need more than just this report so we can make a considered decision. That he presented this to a "Boeing Crowd" has little to do with it IMO due to my previously mentioned corporate governance guideline which he must operate under.
In this case I believe we need further details which can be expected later this month when Airbus announce the results of their 100 day review.
No, this would be the fourth, only counting those after the first orders were signed.
The first delay pushed first delivery to SQ back from March to May. The second delay pushed first delivery back from May to November. The third delay pushed first delivery from November to December and later frames back by up to seven months.
Stillborn refers to a descendant born dead, whereas the A380 has about 150 orders. Delays are not nice, but they're very common in this kind of programmes.
Quoting Katekebo (Reply 7): If you want to build a pyramid, you don't start with 40 slaves, you need 200,000 of them. Even the Egyptians 4,000 years ago knew how to plan and manage the resources required for a project, Airbus should know better.
There are no indications the ancient Egyptians could have built the A380 at all.
TeamAmerica From United States, joined Sep 2006, 1538 posts, RR: 19 Reply 13, posted (3 years 2 months 3 weeks 6 days 11 hours ago) and read 13478 times:
And what is the reason for the newest delay? Given that the Early Long Flights have just been conducted, dare we assume that some significant problems were found? Mr. Humbert said that the ELF testing would be a critical event. Looks like he was right.
Zvezda From Lithuania, joined Aug 2004, 10190 posts, RR: 71 Reply 14, posted (3 years 2 months 3 weeks 6 days 11 hours ago) and read 13433 times:
Quoting Joni (Reply 12): Delays are not nice, but they're very common in this kind of programmes.
No, they are not very common, though some programmes are delayed once. Name another airliner that has been delayed three or four times (after orders have been signed).
MaverickM11 From United States, joined Apr 2000, 11940 posts, RR: 51 Reply 15, posted (3 years 2 months 3 weeks 6 days 11 hours ago) and read 13433 times:
Quoting Aviator27 (Reply 9): then Airbus will sell 495 of their A380's making the program profitable.
Sphealey From United States, joined May 2005, 296 posts, RR: 0 Reply 16, posted (3 years 2 months 3 weeks 6 days 11 hours ago) and read 13336 times:
Not really surprising given that the new management team only took over as the last delay was being uncovered. It takes time to dig into an unstable project and figure out how to get it back fully on track; if the answer were obvious the previous management team would have just done that. It stands to reason that the new dudes would turn over some rocks that were being sat upon, make changes, and possibly readjust the schedule.
TeamAmerica From United States, joined Sep 2006, 1538 posts, RR: 19 Reply 17, posted (3 years 2 months 3 weeks 6 days 11 hours ago) and read 13336 times:
Quoting Aviator27 (Reply 9): Using Boeing's own forecast for VLA over 20 years. If both manufacturers split the market 50/50, then Airbus will sell 495 of their A380's making the program profitable.
Time value of money. If it takes 20 years to get to the 495th delivery, the program will not have been profitable.
You're right, profitability has to measured against the time value of money but also opportunity cost. If Airbus, instead of plunking down $15bn on the A380 focused on an all-composite super lightweight, super efficient mid market widebody aircraft that they could deliver within 4 - 5 years of launch and make them more money than the A380 they should have jumped at that opportunity instead of the whalejet.
Seems to me that someone else figured that one out.
NAV20 From Australia, joined Nov 2003, 7200 posts, RR: 43 Reply 19, posted (3 years 2 months 3 weeks 6 days 11 hours ago) and read 13169 times:
I find this a terrifying paragraph:-
"Singapore Airlines, which is scheduled to receive the first A380 in December, may get the airplane in a ceremonial delivery, with the aircraft immediately returning to Airbus for further work, two sources said. As few as four airplanes, down from a revised schedule of seven, may be delivered next year, the two sources told Leeham Co., including one A380 customer."
My sympathies are with the airlines. How on earth can they run their businesses, and cope with all the other pressures on them, when they literally don't know as yet which YEAR their A380s are going to be delivered in?
"Once you have flown, you will walk the earth with your eyes turned skywards.." - Leonardo da Vinci
JAAlbert From United States, joined Jan 2006, 586 posts, RR: 1 Reply 20, posted (3 years 2 months 3 weeks 6 days 10 hours ago) and read 13095 times:
Quoting Katekebo (Reply 7): If you want to build a pyramid, you don't start with 40 slaves, you need 200,000 of them. Even the Egyptians 4,000 years ago knew how to plan and manage the resources required for a project, Airbus should know better.
As I recall from my school days, it took Egypt several attempts over a few hundred years to perfect the pyramid. (At least one of the early ones collapsed) Using your analogy, Airbus has a lot more time to get its act together! Also, the pyramid builders were not slaves, but paid workers and archeologists estimate that only 4,000 workers actually built the structures with an extimated 16,000 - 20,000 secondary workers employed in the quarries and other building shops.
The point? A pithy, but inaccurate, analogy fosters not understanding, but lazy thinking and attitudes.
Justloveplanes From United States, joined Jul 2004, 474 posts, RR: 0 Reply 21, posted (3 years 2 months 3 weeks 6 days 10 hours ago) and read 13095 times:
I didn't realize the strength of the A380 versus the 747-8 in terms of passenger comfort. 17.2 versus 19 is a lot. Does anyone know if the A380 additionally has individual/wider armrests for each passenger? That was an early goal that may have been translated to seat width. What would 11 abreast seats look like in an A380 with comparable arm rests to the 747-8?
It will be interesting to see how this VLA market does play out. I think 50/50 obviously a guess from both sides...+/- 10% either way.
Zvezda From Lithuania, joined Aug 2004, 10190 posts, RR: 71 Reply 22, posted (3 years 2 months 3 weeks 6 days 10 hours ago) and read 13063 times:
Quoting NAV20 (Reply 19): My sympathies are with the airlines. How on earth can they run their businesses, and cope with all the other pressures on them, when they literally don't know as yet which YEAR their A380s are going to be delivered in?
Bnamaxx From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR: Reply 23, posted (3 years 2 months 3 weeks 6 days 10 hours ago) and read 12961 times:
Quoting Justloveplanes (Reply 21): I didn't realize the strength of the A380 versus the 747-8 in terms of passenger comfort. 17.2 versus 19 is a lot. Does anyone know if the A380 additionally has individual/wider armrests for each passenger? That was an early goal that may have been translated to seat width. What would 11 abreast seats look like in an A380 with comparable arm rests to the 747-8?
Isn't this an airline option? All those snazzy promotional mockup photos about the 380 interior layouts are one thing, airline economics are another. Just like the piano bars and lounges didn't last very long on the 747, I'm willing to bet more seats will win out over luxury, whenever the airplane goes into service. Someone's going to have to pay for all the delays right?
Singapore_Air From United Kingdom, joined Nov 2000, 13606 posts, RR: 25 Reply 24, posted (3 years 2 months 3 weeks 6 days 10 hours ago) and read 12961 times:
Quoting NAV20 (Reply 19): "Singapore Airlines, which is scheduled to receive the first A380 in December, may get the airplane in a ceremonial delivery, with the aircraft immediately returning to Airbus for further work, two sources said. As few as four airplanes, down from a revised schedule of seven, may be delivered next year, the two sources told Leeham Co., including one A380 customer."
01 OCTOBER 2009: This user has retired from aviation to the status of lurker. Thanks Airliners.net for some great times
SparkingWave From Korea, joined Jun 2005, 647 posts, RR: 0 Reply 25, posted (3 years 2 months 3 weeks 6 days 10 hours ago) and read 12941 times:
Quoting Justloveplanes (Reply 21): I didn't realize the strength of the A380 versus the 747-8 in terms of passenger comfort. 17.2 versus 19 is a lot. Does anyone know if the A380 additionally has individual/wider armrests for each passenger?
This is not a strength of the aircraft but a choice of the airline that installs the seats in the aircraft. An airline could also choose to place 19' seats in a 747-8 if it wanted to.
SparkingWave ~~~
Flights to the moon and all major space stations. At Pan Am, the sky is no longer the limit!
26 Stitch: If ILFC had no A380s on order (and probably placed with carriers), I would give more credence to him giving a boost to a pro-Boeing crowd on "home so
27 SkepticAll: I agree completely. If the current figure of 10 A380 orders is correct, ILFC has a dog in this hunt and will be hurt by the delays as much as anyone
28 TeamAmerica: I agree in that this new delay is unconfirmed, but anyone with an interest in the industry should be very concerned about this. Fewer A380 deliveries
29 Manni: You both make good points, and I have no arguments against them. However, until now it is an uncomfirmed rumour, called 'likely' With that in mind I
30 Stitch: Which seems prudent, since even if the initial discounts were upwards of 40% as rumored, that still leaves a 20% "profit spread" between sales price
31 Revelation: And, quoting Scott Leeham: So Humbert and Champion are still drawing fat paychecks, and Forgeard is out on his ass. It's pretty clear who is being ma
32 FlyDreamliner: Poor airbus. I'm starting to wonder if they weren't a little too ambitious and optimistic in the A380. Maybe it was just too big of a project they wer
33 Astuteman: Told you it was an interesting read, not to mention the weight comparisons. That's a bit different to Gellman's $195m in 2001 dollars What do we know
34 PolymerPlane: You need to count engine cost as well, which is included in the list price. If you care to look at the Morgan stanley prediction, the base case model
35 Zvezda: They are not being developed in tandem. There is very little overlap in the development. There is no reason not to start one development effort as an
36 Kaitak: I can only imagine the reaction of airlines like EK, which are soon to make a choice between A350XWBs and 787-10s; this is not a good time to upset th
37 Tom in NO: If I were an ILFC customer, I'd want him to be up front about possible delays in aircraft delivery. At least then I'd know where I was, and wouldn't
38 Khobar: Is this the first time Airbus has attempted to build an airplane? Did the Egyptians have computers/CAD/CAE/etc? If Airbus can do no better than the E
39 Jacobin777: -the delays were because of the engine manufacturer P&W..Boeing had a line of 747's ready to have engines put on -the 747 was a monster step in terms
40 AutoThrust: Sure, if they want a warmed over 747 wich cant come close in terms of comfort and space, they should go on. However we will see if a 3rd delay will h
41 Astuteman: FWIW, in my experience, designing on CAD (for large complex products anyway) actually SLOWS the [b]design process[b] itself down. Certainly Astute ha
42 Stitch: And I am sure Mr. Udvar-Hazy has privately informed those customers of the possibility of said delays prior to Friday's meeting. But to then announce
43 RedFlyer: Yes, we all know the 747 was delayed by a mere two months and only because it was waiting for P&W's engines.
44 Pygmalion: Yep, engines are included in the list price based on list prices from the engine companies. The engine manufacturers make side deals with the airline
45 Stitch: Which I find surprising because supposedly one of the advantages of the system Boeing used on the 777 and NNS is using on the CVN-X is that it allows
46 TeamAmerica: Sadly, "comfort and space" is a niche market (all others fly coach!). The issue is decided entirely on economics. If you can sell that comfort and sp
47 Pygmalion: EIS and delivery delays of over a year are a huge impact to the airline. People who say its no big deal are just flat wrong. Airlines pay huge sums of
48 AirFrnt: That's very unlikely at this point. Remember that Airbus not only has to break even on the material, break even on the labor (per frame costs), but a
49 Lehpron: I see it as ironic that an airplane is being hindered by "Problems with the wiring systems required for customization of the complicated interior syst
50 Dc10s4ever: Wow this is too bad. At this rate the 747-8 will be RETIREING before the A380 sees commercial service.....
51 NYC777: Airbus should have bought Boeing stock, they would have had a better return then on the A380!!
52 Stitch: Okay. Thanks. So how much does an engine add to the price? And how much do the manufacturers discount for new orders?
53 Stitch: It would have been far, far more expensive in cost and time to take the planes with a "base config" that resembles nothing like what SQ offers on the
54 MCIGuy: No, they're not. The 747 was only delayed a couple of months and then it was the engine OEM's fault, not Boeing's. This was in 1969, before CAD and C
55 PlaneHunter: Which would mean even more waiting... PH
56 Ken777: I think it's possible that Mr. Udvar-Hazy's comments were designed as an initial leak, allowing for a reduction in the impact of an "official" announc
57 Pygmalion: Engines are half give or take. New order discounts are between the airline and the airframer. Discounts between the airline and the engine company ar
59 Ikramerica: This author corrected some numbers yet introduced mistakes on his own. It's always wise to not point out other people's mistakes without double check
60 Astuteman: Can't argue, in truth. Although in reality (on Astute) we've found that the virtual prototyping aspect is limited on assembly by tolerance build-up i
61 RedFlyer: Interesting read from the news: THE European aircraft manufacturer Airbus may have to announce further delays to production of its A380 superjumbo air
62 Katekebo: The method that you used is actually very similar to what Boeing did with the B777. They made a fully-assembled virtual "model" of the airplane with
63 DAYflyer: I smell some 747-8I orders coming.....Airlines should be ordering the proven platform at this point. 3 delays is way too much.
64 Revelation: What Astuteman is saying is the design period is longer, yet one hopes the development period is shorter, due to the reasons you give. Designers now
65 PlaneHunter: That's an argument for new customers, but not for early A380 customers. PH
67 EbbUK: Could this be the white elephant everyone was talking about? Could this delay be the one that breaks the camel's back? It would be so upsetting if it
68 Halibut: http://today.reuters.com/news/articl...AIRBUS-URGENT.XML&rpc=66&type=qcna BAE chief sees further delays for Airbus A380 Wed Sep 13, 2006 7:49am ET LON
69 Halibut: Wooooooo You'll have to catch me 1st ! Halibut : The bottom feeder !
70 MCIGuy: I think the airlines have had their fill of this kind of thing. I think if there's another substantial delay (several months), we will definitely see
71 EbbUK: Even though he is likely to be right, he is still a yellow belly quitter. Nothing like support in the ranks in good times and bad. BAE will be the ne
72 MCIGuy: I was watching some British news station last night on cable and some exec from BAE said they expect a 4-5% increase in business from the US in the n
73 Astuteman: When it works, it's BEAUTIFUL We now achieve things that were widely regarded as impossible in the yard beforehand. Very many thanks for a beautifull
74 ScottB: Actually, considering that Airbus entered into considerable currency hedge positions to guard against appreciation in the euro (as their aircraft are
75 Don81603: But at least with a reasonable chance of delivery. NNS designed and built the first Nimitz Class carrier (far more advanced and complex than the A380
76 Deputydawghere: Why does the 747-8 have to be pulled into a discussion about another potential A380 delay?[Edited 2006-09-13 21:54:32]
77 Ikramerica: I was agreeing with YOU. YOU are not the author of the article in question, are you? You were only commenting on his mistakes, as was I...
78 Stitch: I don't think anyone with more then 10 ordered frames will cancel, and I do believe some with large options (like QF and perhaps LH) will indeed orde
79 Glideslope: ...and the arrow strikes the target with shattering force!!!!!
80 Stitch: Probably because it is the only other viable option in the 400+ seat market. However, with Atlas Air taking 12, I have been led to believe that no 74
81 Access-Air: Who the Hell is Udvar-Hazy and why does he have a Museum??? Access-Air
82 Ikramerica: Don't believe it. F carriers add jets more slowly, as they don't have to worry about flying the same route with the same equipment on a daily basis l
83 PlaneHunter: So you think the A380 will never be delivered? PH
85 Stitch: True, but if they want them quickly, Boeing I am sure will oblige them. And that is what I have heard about the Atlas Air order - "Delivery of the ca
86 Jacobin777: ok..you might be right on that one (I'm not going to question your judgment on that).however, how about rest of it? that's what many have been saying
87 787engineer: The A380 program was officially launched in 2000, so we're closing in on six years now. A decent sized delay could put it close to 7 years. At this s
88 Ikramerica: Well, obviously. But the claim was that there are no slots before 2011. This is not true. If an airline were to launch the 748i today, they would get
89 Khobar: Ah, okay. It's just that all you quoted was what I said and followed up with "This author". Hence my "confustion".
90 Halibut: Shirley you can't be serious ? EbbUK, You bring up a good point . Perhaps Airbus would be better off , starting over & pulling an XWB-A350 with the A
91 Leelaw: It was clear at Farnborough that Mr. Champion had already been marginalized, the "go to guy" at the various press events regarding the A380 program w
92 Zvezda: Maybe more, maybe less. We know when Boeing can deliver the SuperJumbo. We don't know when Airbus can deliver the WhaleJet. I would bet a lot of mone
93 Bnamaxx: Wow. In an earlier thread I voiced doubt on the long term viability of this aircraft and suggested we reconvene in three years to see how many are fly
94 Slider: Are you serious? Udvar-Hazy is a Hungarian immigrant who came to America and literally invented the aircraft operating lease. He founded ILFC, built
96 Leelaw: The only person the most fervent Airbus supporters on A.net detest more than Mr. Udvar-Hazy since he dropped the dime on the "old all-new A350" at IS
98 TeamAmerica: According to this similar article: http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au...ory/0,20867,20407795-23349,00.html "Emirates and Qantas - which has already
99 Scouseflyer: Have they not ordered 55 frames between them - that's less that $3mill per frame
100 Zvezda: I've helped negotiate concessions from Airbus over a much smaller delivery problem and $140 million sounds low to me if that's meant to cover all thr
101 TeamAmerica: I read it as $140M for Qantas alone. The implications for Airbus' cash position are huge. In order to avoid cash outlays, they must be offering the c
102 JAL: If this is true, their customers will be super pissed!
103 B707Stu: Question Leelaw: Have you, or anyone on the thread, ever heard of a plane being delivered and not going immediately into service? I find the idea of
104 Astuteman: Not sure I understand why that should be relevant - the airlines are entitled to their contractual compensation whatever. Full Stop. As far as I know
105 AirFrnt: " target=_blank>http://www.leeham.net/filelib/A380DE...L.pdf Thanks for pointing this out. This article is fantastic.
106 Swissy: Quoting Slider (Reply 94): Are you serious? Udvar-Hazy is a Hungarian immigrant who came to America and literally invented the aircraft operating leas
107 Jacobin777: He's one of, if not the largest Airbus customer......say what you want, but he basically single-handedly got Airbus to redesign the A350......that's
108 ER757: Agree whole-heartedly with this post. I read the article a second time to see if it mentioned in what context Mister U-H's remarks were made and it d
109 2wingtips: Have been told at the same meeting(and this has not been reported) that Mr Udvar-Hazy said A350XWB EIS would not be until 2013(and not 2012 as Airbus
110 AirFrnt: I really don't think it makes that much of a difference at this point. If a carrier was that time sensitive for the 787 versus Airbus's offerings the
111 Manni: The figure I took from the document provided does not exclude the engines either. Here's a pressrelease about KE's A380 engine purchase. The value of
112 TeamAmerica: Airbus doesn't want to pay cash, so they offer compensation as discounts on parts, services, or new purchases. This only works if the customer is off
113 Leelaw: Clearly a case of form over substance, as Airbus is heavily "invested" in "delivering" an A380 by the end of 2006 from a P.R. standpoint. Nevertheles
114 Access-Air: NO, I asked a simple question I expect an answer....the SHORT VERSION.... Access-Air
115 PanAm_DC10: Mr S Udvar-Hazy is CEO of ILFC a wholly owned sibsidriary of AIG Inc. They are one of the largest Leasing Companies in the world and the biggest cust
116 BoomBoom: And according to some on this forum they always make a 'tidy profit' from paying compensation, so this is really just more good news for Airbus.
117 Leelaw: From WSJ 09/14/06 (Fair Use Excerpt): ...Mr. Turner said that, based on his conversations with Mr. Streiff, Airbus "is still not sure when" the A380 w
118 NAV20: Until recently both Airbus and Boeing have been in a position where profits were sufficient to allow them both to pay out reasonable dividends to keep
120 Jacobin777: That's one scary scenerio...its bad enough with EADS as it is with the French, German, and Spanish Govts....
121 NAV20: Looks like my hunch just became a 'near-fact,' Jacobin777, according to Bloomberg a few minutes ago:- "Sept. 11 (Bloomberg) -- European Aeronautic, D
122 Ikramerica: Good to see their complete embrace of free markets and abandonment of communism is moving forward...
123 NAV20: Be interesting if the Cold War ever starts up again - with both sides using Eurofighters to buzz each other.....
124 Astuteman: Just so long as readers are aware that this is a "suggestion" of yours and may or may not bear any resemblance to the actual facts. We might yet find
125 Zvezda: That is not a safe assumption. All WhaleJet orders so far were made at a time when no other airliner available for order had such low CASM. I believe
126 Glideslope: LOL. Did anyone really think there would be movement?
127 Joni: I noticed that too. Answering your questions: No, this isn't the first time Airbus is building a plane, No, the Egyptians didn't have computers. The
128 Halibut: Is this really a good thing ? Giving Putin a say in EADS ? There's aready too many rosters in the Hen house . Some very snooty ones too , I must say
129 Mariner: That's jolly interesting. It was my understanding - based on things (ex) CEO Humbert said - that the serious re-think of the A350 began after they lo
130 Don81603: I think it will eventually be delivered, as EADS has come too far along to kill the program without causing major, perhaps near fatal embarrasment.
132 JayinKitsap: What is amazing to me is we are talking about delay announcements of months just a few months before delivery is scheduled to occur. That is for the f
133 NAV20: I can't myself see how it could possibly be a 'good thing,' Halibut. There seems to be a pattern developing - the Chinese deal, and possibly this one
134 TeamAmerica: Astuteman, you are projecting A.Net politics onto my comments. I have made no suggestion that Airbus is giving away anything. The SQ announcements at
135 Leelaw: According to Dr. Humbert's recounting of this strange tale to the WSJ, he had started the A350 "re-think" some three months before Mr. Udvar-Hazy's s
136 Khobar: SQ has stopped complaining about compensation since the deal for A350's. And now that further delays have been talked about, SQ's reaction is complet
137 Astuteman: That's fair enough, TeamAmerica, and to be fair, I did say your suggestion may (or may not) reflect reality. That of course is a view you're entitled
138 TeamAmerica: I think we are actually in agreement. Airbus is a business and conducts itself as such. I note that you have also read the Morgan Stanley document ("
139 Stitch: And if the A380's flight-test performance was indeed pleasing to SQ, when Airbus then offered them as good as or better deal on taking even more, it
140 Astuteman: A pretty fair answer, TeamAmerica. Thanks And to avoid any doubt, this statement should not be interpreted a belief that the A380 was the best commer
141 Jacobin777: which makes the situation even more scary..... Say what? Boeing didn't delay the plane.....the wiring issues were Airbus fault..even though they trie
142 Slider: Why the contempt toward him? He is most definitely something special. Perhaps a little respect for a guy who came here and INVENTED the industry, cre
143 Zvezda: Fatal embarrassment is not the most serious problem facing Airbus. Yes, it's a reasonably good bet that at least one WhaleJet will eventually get del
144 Mariner: "It now seems clear". Okay. You seem to keep more records of this stuff than I do, so if you say so. But it doesn't seem clear to me, based on what I
145 Revelation: Which means Airbus has stopped listening to it's single largest customer?
146 Zvezda: Mariner, we know that there was a struggle within Airbus over whether to proceed with the "old all-new" A350 or the "new all-new" A350. Mr. UH had goo
147 Mariner: Surely it is the other way around? Isn't it Mr. UH who has ""fallen out" with Airbus? You know this how? The souring of the realtionship with Airbus
148 Mariner: Well, lookee here - SQ is taking the rumor in its stride: http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Stor...48DF-A29C-3DDDC3B9A69E%7D&keyword= "Any hiccup in the
149 Ken777: If you look at the time SQ spend considering the 7E7/787 before making some sort of commitment to it then the decision on the 350 is exceptionally fa
150 ScottB: Really? Airbus's single largest customer, bar none, no longer has any pull at the company? Do you have any evidence of this? Does this source change
151 Mariner: (i) I don't keep records of all this, but I do remember the way that the early meetings between Mr. Strief and Mr. UH were characterized. (ii) I have
152 Jacobin777: It would be hard to say he wasn't at the very least a "catalyst" in the whole situation...whether he got what he wanted, we'll see.... the situation
153 Mariner: One catalyst, for sure. But unless (ex) CEO Humbert is telling fibs, the original, the provoking, catalyst was the Qantas order, followed by the deba
154 Halibut: Very good point NAV20 ! If the Russians were to be involved with EADS's military projects . I doubt very much the US would be able to purchase produc
155 Jacobin777: hence me saying that at the very least he was a "catalyst" ....I believe he was more instrumental in the changes for the A350 then the string of loss
156 ScottB: But you claim that: I don't think there is any credible evidence whatsoever that the latter is true. It doesn't; it wasn't intended to. The two quote
157 Mariner: All any of us can do is interpret public statements and maybe extrapolate from them. What he said at Farnborough perusades me - only me - that, for t
158 Mariner: I see you have lost none of your taste for ludicrous hyperbole. If you think M. Forgeard was or is "my beloved" then I have really sad news for you a
159 Stitch: Which is interesting because the pro-Airbus crowd kept bringing up that QF evidently felt the 787 and the A350 was a wash, and that QF went with the
160 Leelaw: Apparently, Mr. Clark of EK thinks Mr. Udvar-Hazy's remarks at ISTAT were of some merit and importance: ...On the sidelines of the IATA conference th
161 Mariner: I don't know who the"pro-Airbus" crowd is - I know I have been put there, but I have also been (viciously) attacked as anti-Boeing. Howsumever, I don
162 Halibut: Hi Mariner, You can verbage me all you want . However , that doesn't change the fact of you backing & being a very staunch supporter Mr Forgeard . Whi
163 Mariner: Who said it had changed? But - beloved? Or - God - ? The "verbage" is yours, but you might want to check the spelling of it. No, I am not. I am being
164 Ikramerica: Wow. I forgot about that. Old A350 used bleed-air GEnx engines. 748i uses bleed-air GEnx engines. Yet Mr. F somehow found a way to differentiate them
165 Don81603: No, it's not the biggest problem, but it could very well lead to lack of confidence. IMO, that's is the fatal part. If you customers lose confidence
166 Stitch: Aye. I probably should have ommitted that part and just said "some folks". I wasn't trying to paint you with any specific brush. Again, aye. While SQ
167 Halibut: FYI, That's the Halibutian spelling of the word verbiage ! Nope ! Not going to fall for it Mariner . That is just one for your feeble attempts to dod
168 Aviator27: The A380 is late and Boeing hasn't sold a single B748i to an airline. What's new? Let's talk about B787 versus A350XWB. King-Kong versus Godzilla. Har
169 Jacobin777: there was a recent meeting in HKG with 25 carriers regarding the 748......lets see what happens in the next 4-6 months.....Boeing probably got some v
170 Leelaw: Whether by design or through serendipity, Mr. Udvar-Hazy seems to have been the primary catalyst for change. Reportedly, it's Mr. Udvar-Hazy's framed
171 Justloveplanes: Emirates may be thinking about now about splitting their VLA order to include some 748's. They seem like they are trying to beat their global competit
172 Aviator27: Don't forget that overcapacity and lack of qualified pilots is hampering Emirates and most other Middle East (West Asia) carriers. They may have the o
173 Zvezda: Only if one counts a 3 cabin configuration as "similar" to a 1 cabin configuration. They are similar in that both have seats for passengers. The simi
174 Justloveplanes: Yes I see your point the 748 are less capacity on a one-for-one basis. My point is that if the capacity arrives too late for EK, there is no traffic
175 Justloveplanes: Yes I see your point the 748 are less capacity on a one-for-one basis. My point is that if the capacity arrives too late for EK, there is no traffic
176 Stitch: I would think in a single-class a 748 would be around 625 folks, since the 744D holds 568 and the 748I is some 4 meters longer. And if they add the e
177 Ikramerica: In three class domestic. Single class, it's much higher. The 773 holds up to 550 pax in one class. The 744 is over 600. To get certify seats on a 748
178 Aviator27: The B748i will not be certified nor advertised to hold 650 seats. Even if they can fit them in, the emergency exits restrict the amount of seats one c
179 Swissy: AV27 I always had pretty much the same questions and I can not wait to finally can hear a answer, so lets hope we can shed some light in to it. Cheers
180 Stitch: I imagine Boeing offered the 748I because, now that customers were going to buy the freighter model, they could gauge if there was any interest in it.
181 Jacobin777: because you are comparing apples to oranges..... the market for VLAs and mid-sized twins are not comparable..... Airbus and Boeing have a different p
182 ScottB: Well, the comparison you're trying to make isn't exactly direct when the relevant market segments are considered. Does the 747-8I compete directly wi
183 TeamAmerica: Boeing never, ever, said the market was only 150 frames. You are mixing A.Net arguments with reality. Two different things. Nothing sudden about it.
184 Zvezda: The current WhaleJet order book conclusively demonstrates that, as of right now, the market has room for at least 160 VLA frames over 20 years. Obvio
185 Jacobin777: I figured it was better to be prudent since I wasn't so sure if it was the fastest selling widebody in history.....
186 Aviator27: You guys are so funny. Read the sarcasm in my post and then respond to the the substance, and not the willy nilly. I am not comparing any two airplane
187 Elite: Looks like SQ won't be recieving theirs by the end of the year.
188 Ikramerica: Give me a break. There is anti-both sides nonstop. But this whole "equivalency" argument is what's getting the world into a mess, beyond just airline
189 TeamAmerica: Might help if you focused on the substance of your comments and left out the sarcasm and "willy nilly". Makes it hard to tell if you're serious or ju
190 TeamAmerica: Fair enough, but the airlines do have to choose from a limited array of aircraft. Grossly simplified: you take your city pairs and projected loads, p
191 Zvezda: That's right. The a+b+c (for many airlines b+c) number is not only smaller than 300 in nearly all cases, but dropping steadily. The A350 and B787 are
192 Mariner: So, just out of passing interest, I wonder why you - inconsistently - give what you call the "Superjumbo" its manufacturers name (as you do with the
193 Rheinbote: Maybe he's just a key proponent of a solution to a mess he single-handedly created in the first place?
194 Astuteman: In fact, the current "superjumbo" orderbook conclusively demonstrates that the market has room for at least 160 VLA's in 6 years. (I love to know wha
195 Zvezda: Both are certainly true. Both VLAs pressure each other on price. Anyone who says they don't compete with each other hasn't been involved in buying ai
196 TeamAmerica: I've had this thought as well. Is Boeing's margin so small that they cannot make a deal, or is some of the old Boeing hubris reemerging? At this poin
197 Stitch: I believe it is the former, not the latter. If it was hubris, they'd have launched the 745 and 746 anyway, or even the 747-X, and told airlines to ta
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