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Analysts Warn Middle East Will Face Overcapacity  
User currently offlineTangowhisky From United States of America, joined Jun 2006, 929 posts, RR: 7
Posted (8 years 1 week 22 hours ago) and read 9698 times:

Analysts are warning that the Middle East region is facing a potentially-damaging burden of over-capacity combined with continuing inefficiency resulting from heavy air transport regulation.

Fair Quote:
A study by consultancy Booz Allen Hamilton claims that Middle Eastern states must accelerate national deregulation activity and co-ordinate their long-term air transport planning in order to prevent over-investment in unnecessary airport and fleet capacity.

While the study, Mastering the Challenges of the Middle East Aviation System, accepts that the Middle East region is growing rapidly it says that planned investments at ten airport locations are designed to provide for an additional 320 million passengers by 2012.

"However the region will likely fall short of such growth, even if it meets its expected growth rate of about 7% per year", it states. It adds that several programmes are taking place in areas of close proximity, and that this could result in overlapping catchments and cannibalisation of demand.

Despite evidence that airlines "capacity management in the Middle East is relatively poor" the study says that load factor is, on average, around seven points lower than in Europe and Asia the region's carriers are investing heavily in fleet expansion. Emirates, Etihad Airways and Qatar Airways account for most of the new aircraft on order in the area.

The projected increase in fleet capacity, says the study, is "well ahead" of demand and "bears the risk of intense competition", driving down aircraft utilisation and performance efficiency.

"These investment programmes pose serious risks of unhealthy competition and unexpected over-capacity that the region must address", it says, warning that government backing in many cases will prevent normal market forces from reducing excess capacity in the near term.

Over-regulation, it adds, is leading to low efficiency and low quality within both the aviation system and its infrastructure and this, in turn, is generating "serious restrictions" on sustainable, self-funding growth.

"Even though some aviation markets, such as Dubai, have introduced open sky policies and released foreign-ownership limitations, the aviation system remains heavily regulated by government airport and airline ownership, restricted traffic rights, selected traffic right allocation, and price restrictions", it says.

"As a result the Middle East aviation system has clear cost and efficiency disadvantages which lead to increased prices and subsidies. Heavy regulation also limits the adoption of new aviation business models, such as low-cost carriers, to the detriment of faster regional tourism development and consumer benefit."

It says that Middle Eastern countries should align air transport policy with a broader agenda of national economic growth. Governments need to accelerate liberalisation programmes, open their markets to foreign investors and competitors, and co-ordinate their efforts with other Middle Eastern states in order to avoid potential problems.


Only the paranoid survive
146 replies: All unread, showing first 25:
 
User currently offlineCentrair From Japan, joined Jan 2005, 3598 posts, RR: 20
Reply 1, posted (8 years 1 week 21 hours ago) and read 9656 times:

Could you post a link to the entire document/article?


Yes...I am not a KIX fan. Let's Japanese Aviation!
User currently offlineJetjack74 From United States of America, joined Jul 2003, 7410 posts, RR: 50
Reply 2, posted (8 years 1 week 19 hours ago) and read 9574 times:
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Of course. In a region that is so volitile and has never been a huge draw in traffic, is it any wonder that the threat of overcapacity is looming. These clowns ordering insane amounts of aircraft to trump the likes of western carriers. What is Emirates going to do with 45 A380's and all the other aircraft they have on order. Europeans going to and from Asia/Australasia don't want to stop in DXB, JED, or DOH in order to get to SYD or LHR when the get there n/s. These company's are owned by these shieks, princes who thing running an airline is easy money. Well, we'll see how many 2nd-hand aircraft flood the market over the next few years.


Made from jets!
User currently offlineQantas787 From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 3, posted (8 years 1 week 19 hours ago) and read 9573 times:

Reading this thread would make Geoff Dixon smile I should think.

User currently offlineIkramerica From United States of America, joined May 2005, 21532 posts, RR: 59
Reply 4, posted (8 years 1 week 18 hours ago) and read 9535 times:

Quoting Tangowhisky (Thread starter):
"These investment programmes pose serious risks of unhealthy competition and unexpected over-capacity that the region must address", it says, warning that government backing in many cases will prevent normal market forces from reducing excess capacity in the near term.

I've been saying this for a long time. The government backing, whether overt or covert, distorts the impact of over expansion on the carriers themselves, but not on their competitors around the world.

Quoting Qantas787 (Reply 3):
Reading this thread would make Geoff Dixon smile I should think.

It's also why the Australian government isn't going to budge any time soon. They are not dumb, and know that with over capacity and government involvement, the middle eastern carriers will saturate Australia to the detriment of having other options. People ask why QR should have to prove a route makes sense? The answer is, capacity dumping is likely in the near term and while it can have short term benefits for the flying public, the long term repercussions can be dire...



Of all the things to worry about... the Wookie has no pants.
User currently offlineLumberton From United States of America, joined Jul 2005, 4708 posts, RR: 20
Reply 5, posted (8 years 1 week 16 hours ago) and read 9443 times:

Many of the threads on PPRUNE discuss difficulties in recruiting and retaining pilots in the Middle East. Although annecdotal, where there's smoke....

Also, with the announcement of RAK, that would make 13 (per Airfleets) separate airlines in the UAE alone! It's almost like every large city in Texas having an international airline.  duck 



"When all is said and done, more will be said than done".
User currently offlineMotorHussy From New Zealand, joined Mar 2000, 3205 posts, RR: 9
Reply 6, posted (8 years 1 week 15 hours ago) and read 9372 times:

I hope they got paid well for figuring this all out.... ya think?

MH



come visit the south pacific
User currently offlineLTBEWR From United States of America, joined Jan 2004, 13115 posts, RR: 12
Reply 7, posted (8 years 1 week 13 hours ago) and read 9287 times:

There are a number of problems with this developing overcapacity by the huge and rapid growth in Middle Eastern/Persian Gulf States based airlines, not just for these airlines, but others elsewhere in the world.
Due to lower fuel, financing, and to some extent labor costs they can offer cheaper fares. They control for a number of years their own considerable oil resources. Their investors, which in part are the governments themselves, do not have the short term profit needs to satisfy them. That means for many EC and some Asisn airlines, they will have competitive pressures put on them, including pressure on fares.
By hiring people from low income countries (South Asia, Ex-soviet countries, Eastern Europe), they save a lot of money on flight staff. Yes, they may face shortages of access to sufficient pilots and that may be a limiting issue.
Due to their lower overall costs, they may be able to offer fares that despite the stopovers, may force lower fares on EC or Asian based airlines.
They still face an issue that many do not want to stop in a 3d country, especially one that is in the Middle East due to security and terror risks.
Many also don't desire to nor want to support Middle Eastern governments, the dominate Islamic religious faith there or with some countries, their treatment of their citizens, especially women or the general undemocratic states they tend to be. These are intangible issues that these Middle Eastern airlines are not seeing.


User currently offlineCloudyapple From Hong Kong, joined Jul 2005, 2454 posts, RR: 9
Reply 8, posted (8 years 1 week 12 hours ago) and read 9220 times:

We dont need analysts to tell us the middle east is going to be over capacity in the near future. There are at least 3 airlines with unlimited cash operating and all expanding aggressively. Amongst the 3 of them they have 50000 seats on order and they are going to buy more. The region is going to be the world's aviation hub sucking in all Oz/Asia/Africa-Europe traffic. This growth is not going to be sustainable in the long run and they will certainly drag some of the weaker European/Asian/African/Oz carriers into the oblivion.


A310/A319/20/21/A332/3/A343/6/A388/B732/5/7/8/B742/S/4/B752/B763/B772/3/W/E145/J41/MD11/83/90
User currently offlineSupa7E7 From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 9, posted (8 years 1 week 12 hours ago) and read 9170 times:

It all depends on India + China growth.... how much and who gets it.

Big markets will be flown high over the Middle East.

Asia-Africa traffic however... that is a strong advantage for the Middle East.


User currently offlineJaysit From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 10, posted (8 years 1 week 11 hours ago) and read 9117 times:

Quoting Jetjack74 (Reply 2):
Europeans going to and from Asia/Australasia don't want to stop in DXB, JED, or DOH in order to get to SYD or LHR when the get there n/s

Tell that to the millions of Europeans who take EK/QR/GF to SE Asia, Australia, India and Africa. And no one transits in JED to get anywhere. Except, perhaps, Mecca.

Quoting LTBEWR (Reply 7):
They still face an issue that many do not want to stop in a 3d country, especially one that is in the Middle East due to security and terror risks.

How is Dubai a security risk? You're safer in Dubai than you probably are at London Heathrow.

Quoting Cloudyapple (Reply 8):
This growth is not going to be sustainable in the long run and they will certainly drag some of the weaker European/Asian/African/Oz carriers into the oblivion.

Well, none of the European carriers, except BA and VS fly to Australia anymore. The Oz traffic had already been diverted to the SE Asian carriers with their superior service and lower fares. For smaller EU, African and Asian carriers to survive, they'd have to cater to nitch markets.


User currently offline777way From Pakistan, joined Dec 2005, 5716 posts, RR: 4
Reply 11, posted (8 years 1 week 9 hours ago) and read 9001 times:

Quoting Jaysit (Reply 10):
How is Dubai a security risk? You're safer in Dubai than you probably are at London Heathrow.

Al Qaeda have issued latest threat to target Gulf States for their pro-America policy.


User currently offlineJaysit From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 12, posted (8 years 1 week 7 hours ago) and read 8900 times:

Quoting 777way (Reply 11):
Quoting Jaysit (Reply 10):
How is Dubai a security risk? You're safer in Dubai than you probably are at London Heathrow.

Al Qaeda have issued latest threat to target Gulf States for their pro-America policy.

But that's nothing new.

Those threats were issued by Al Qaeda years ago.

Plus, remember that the Emirates have perfectly normal relations with Iran and the Saudis, who realize the need for a pressure valve for their deprived citizens.


User currently offlinePlaneHunter From Germany, joined Mar 2006, 6808 posts, RR: 77
Reply 13, posted (8 years 1 week 7 hours ago) and read 8886 times:

Quoting Jetjack74 (Reply 2):
In a region that is so volitile and has never been a huge draw in traffic, is it any wonder that the threat of overcapacity is looming.

"Has never been" doesn't count any more. And which parts of the regions are volatile? Don't forget, the UAE is different from Iraq, Iran or Lebanon.

Quoting Jetjack74 (Reply 2):
These clowns ordering insane amounts of aircraft to trump the likes of western carriers. What is Emirates going to do with 45 A380's and all the other aircraft they have on order.

Calling these people "clowns" doesn't change the fact that these airlines are successful, especially EK, and cause headaches for many "Western carriers".

Quoting Jetjack74 (Reply 2):
Europeans going to and from Asia/Australasia don't want to stop in DXB, JED, or DOH in order to get to SYD or LHR when the get there n/s.

So how do Europeans then fly to SYD? By chartering a personal B777?
Of course passengers want to stop in DXB or DOH, that's why these airlines have grown massively in the past years. Check EK's network and find out which destinations are connected nonstop with each other...
Timetable's here: www.emirates.com

Quoting Jetjack74 (Reply 2):
These company's are owned by these shieks, princes who thing running an airline is easy money.

"These shieks" are usually well educated and they also employ managers from all over the world. And "easy money" may sound like a nice and comfortable reason for the success, but there's a bit more behind it...

Quoting Jetjack74 (Reply 2):
Well, we'll see how many 2nd-hand aircraft flood the market over the next few years.

Considering that certain US carriers are in serious trouble, there could be quite some aircraft flooding the market soon...

Quoting LTBEWR (Reply 7):
They still face an issue that many do not want to stop in a 3d country, especially one that is in the Middle East due to security and terror risks.

Most people can distinguish between Iraq and the UAE.

Quoting LTBEWR (Reply 7):
Many also don't desire to nor want to support Middle Eastern governments, the dominate Islamic religious faith there or with some countries, their treatment of their citizens, especially women or the general undemocratic states they tend to be.

See above. Saudi-Arabia or Iran are different from the UAE.

Quoting LTBEWR (Reply 7):
These are intangible issues that these Middle Eastern airlines are not seeing.

They can't see what's not there.

Quoting Jaysit (Reply 10):
Tell that to the millions of Europeans who take EK/QR/GF to SE Asia, Australia, India and Africa. And no one transits in JED to get anywhere. Except, perhaps, Mecca.

 checkmark 

Quoting Jaysit (Reply 10):
How is Dubai a security risk? You're safer in Dubai than you probably are at London Heathrow.

 checkmark 

Quoting 777way (Reply 11):
Al Qaeda have issued latest threat to target Gulf States for their pro-America policy.

The UAE is known to be neutral. We all know which countries are meant with that threat.


PH



Nothing's worse than flying the same reg twice!
User currently offline74472 From United Kingdom, joined Jun 2006, 117 posts, RR: 0
Reply 14, posted (8 years 1 week 6 hours ago) and read 8844 times:

Maybe EK can put all of their A380's on Europe/Australia?

Maybe I could fly from London to Hong Kong via DXB and save 20 quid and lose 10 hours ?

Good luck to the middle eastern carriers. Seriously, who cares if in 5 years they're flying around alot of half empty aircraft. It doesn't matter to them financially does it !!


User currently offlineJacobin777 From United States of America, joined Sep 2004, 14968 posts, RR: 59
Reply 15, posted (8 years 1 week 6 hours ago) and read 8780 times:

Quoting Jetjack74 (Reply 2):
Of course. In a region that is so volitile and has never been a huge draw in traffic

are you speaking out of your bum or are you speaking using facts....?

This is taken directly from the IACO..

"Having shown some resilience to geopolitical tensions and conflicts, the Middle East
economy is expected to maintain a higher than world average growth through to the end of the forecast
period. The GDP for the region is expected to increase at an average annual rate of 4.5 per cent for the
2004-2010 period and 3.5 per cent for the period 2010-2020."

"Scheduled passenger traffic (in PKPs) of the airlines of the Middle East region increased
at an average annual rate of 9.1 per cent over the 1994-2004 period, substantially higher than the world
average. After a slowdown in 2001, traffic rebounded and increased by 9.7 per cent in 2002, 12.7 per cent
in 2003 and 23.8 per cent in 2004.
3.2.2 Scheduled passenger traffic for the airlines of the Middle East region is expected to grow
by 12 per cent in 2006 and 8.8 per cent in 2006. These rates reflect an expected good economic
performance in the region. The long term average annual growth rate to the year 2015 is anticipated to be
6.4 per cent, the highest growth among all regions."**

**-IACO meeting-May 3-6, 2006

Quoting Jetjack74 (Reply 2):
What is Emirates going to do with 45 A380's and all the other aircraft they have on order.

who says they are going to use all the planes? maybe they will lease them out......which is a possibility...

the other planes coming in will be for fleet replacement as well as expansion..

getting the 787-10 for example would replace the older 772's

Quoting Jetjack74 (Reply 2):
Europeans going to and from Asia/Australasia don't want to stop in DXB, JED, or DOH in order to get to SYD or LHR when the get there n/s.

gee..really? is that why the Australian govt. doesn't QR coming in because it is afraid that QR would increase capacity to on the Kangaroo route? Why is Australia one of EK's most lucrative routes? The local population fills those seats up?

when was the last time a carrier offered Europe-SYD-Europe nonstop?

Quoting Jetjack74 (Reply 2):
These company's are owned by these shieks, princes who thing running an airline is easy money

right..big boys with big toys... sarcastic 

EK's books are open for all to see......EK's Clark struck great deals 20 years ago with many countries because no one thought EK would be competitive in 20 years....

Quoting LTBEWR (Reply 7):
By hiring people from low income countries (South Asia, Ex-soviet countries, Eastern Europe), they save a lot of money on flight staff.

are you talking about EK? EK has a very large international staff/FA's/pilots

Quoting LTBEWR (Reply 7):
They still face an issue that many do not want to stop in a 3d country, especially one that is in the Middle East due to security and terror risks.

Is that why UA has decided to start IAD-KWI? When was the last time there was a "security and terror risk" in a Middle East country? Last I heard, it was all happening in European countries/United States...

Quoting LTBEWR (Reply 7):
Many also don't desire to nor want to support Middle Eastern governments, the dominate Islamic religious faith there or with some countries, their treatment of their citizens, especially women or the general undemocratic states they tend to be. These are intangible issues that these Middle Eastern airlines are not seeing.

keep your brilliant political comments out of this (so he says in a sardonic matter).....almost all Asian, European and even the United States have business/economic ties with Middle Eastern Countries such as Egypt, Saudi, Jordan, Qatar, etc....



"Up the Irons!"
User currently offlineAntiuser From Italy, joined May 2004, 657 posts, RR: 1
Reply 16, posted (8 years 1 week 5 hours ago) and read 8756 times:

Quoting LTBEWR (Reply 7):
Many also don't desire to nor want to support Middle Eastern governments, the dominate Islamic religious faith there or with some countries, their treatment of their citizens, especially women or the general undemocratic states they tend to be. These are intangible issues that these Middle Eastern airlines are not seeing.

Don't know much about the UAE, do you? It's specifically stated in their constitution that before the law, men and women are equal and enjoy the same rights.

Quoting Lumberton (Reply 5):
Although annecdotal, where there's smoke....

... there's mirrors? Big grin



Azzurri Campioni del Mondo!
User currently offlineJaysit From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 17, posted (8 years 1 week 5 hours ago) and read 8720 times:

Quoting 74472 (Reply 14):
Maybe I could fly from London to Hong Kong via DXB and save 20 quid and lose 10 hours ?


You could lose at most 3.5 hours. And probably save a lot, given that bucket shops in London can give you a fare in any class of travel on EK for less than on BA or CX. And while you'd be insane to go via the MidEast to get to HKG especially since the route is so competitive with some great airlines serving it, remember its not just the major cities in Asia like HKG that EK targets.

You get one stop connectivity to all Australian cities, Asian cities like Jakarta, KL, Manila, Nagoya, Sapporo, virtually all of the subcontinent and East Africa. And you could get there on new aircraft with great service. And while I'd rather get to Singapore or Mumbai or Bangkok non-stop from London, a lot of travellers don't care about a transit stop as long as they save money. Throw in 600 movies on a kick-ass IFE system, and you get the masses numb to an extra few hours of travel time.

Besides, don't underestimate Dubai's growth as a destination. Its become the destination of choice for the rapidly growing numbers of the new rich in India, Russia and China. For a lot of these people, Dubai with all its new bling bling is a perfectly acceptable version of Vegas, LA and NYC without all the messiness of having to get a tourist visa and flying for 12-20 hours.


User currently offlineKiramakora From Argentina, joined Aug 2006, 547 posts, RR: 0
Reply 18, posted (8 years 1 week 5 hours ago) and read 8692 times:

Quoting Jaysit (Reply 12):
Plus, remember that the Emirates have perfectly normal relations with Iran and the Saudis, who realize the need for a pressure valve for their deprived citizens.

Haha. So true.

Quoting Antiuser (Reply 16):
Don't know much about the UAE, do you? It's specifically stated in their constitution that before the law, men and women are equal and enjoy the same rights.

I would not go on to state that UAE is a bastion of equality. Treatment of non-Gulf citizens, and expats from certain Western countries in particular jobs is very sad and dispecable.


User currently offlineLTBEWR From United States of America, joined Jan 2004, 13115 posts, RR: 12
Reply 19, posted (8 years 1 week 5 hours ago) and read 8681 times:

I agree that a number of the Persian Gulf states are socially reasonable, unlike Iran or Saudi Arabia. Still many have very dumb and prejudical stereotypes of the region, especially Americans, and see it as all a big, anti-Israeli place.
The UAE, Dubai, and several other countries there have stable and well run governments with good human and personal rights, good educational systems and are attracting many rich tourist in the region and elsewhere for their high class standards and reasonable social attitudes.
I would also agree that the security of airports in that region have very high world class standards due the risks they face from al-Queda types there, perhaps better than many EC and USA airports.
As to UA planning to serve Kuwait, that is probably to service the large numbers of oil, construction, project managers and other advisers and workers from the USA in that region, especially using Kuwait as their base of operations or to go into Iraq from there to their contracts in Iraq. The demand and income and relatively low risk makes it a good decision for an American based airlines to serve there.


User currently offlineMaverickM11 From United States of America, joined Apr 2000, 17508 posts, RR: 45
Reply 20, posted (8 years 1 week 4 hours ago) and read 8672 times:

Quoting Tangowhisky (Thread starter):
Analysts are warning that the Middle East region is facing a potentially-damaging burden of over-capacity

Uhh....duh! Are these same analysts predicting an overcapacity situation in the US in 2002?



E pur si muove -Galileo
User currently offlineJaysit From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 21, posted (8 years 1 week 4 hours ago) and read 8644 times:

Quoting Kiramakora (Reply 18):
I would not go on to state that UAE is a bastion of equality. Treatment of non-Gulf citizens, and expats from certain Western countries in particular jobs is very sad and dispecable.

You mean non-Western countries. Yes, the labor laws in Dubai viz a viz the subcontinental and SE Asian blue collar labor force are nasty. And, yet, millions still apply for jobs there. Lately, there has been some action on behalf of the Emirati government to put some teeth into their laws in apprehending thuggish employers who often refuse to pay their "slave" laborers and keep them in virtual bondage. It appears that the slothful Indian government finally woke up from its slumber and made a few noises which led to the UAE to do the minimum needed to alter their laws. The UAE also know quite well that they depend heavily on cheap labor from their catchment area, and, thus, don't want to eliminate the incentive of making money. With the way the UAE is building all sorts of bizarre stuff, they will only need more expat blue collar workers, not less.


User currently offlineGr8Circle From Canada, joined Dec 2005, 3107 posts, RR: 4
Reply 22, posted (8 years 1 week 4 hours ago) and read 8644 times:

Given the above situation, how do Boeing and Airbus handle this....? After all, a lot of the orders that they both boast about are from airlines in the Middle East....if a collapse of even a small magnitude does occur down the line, that could mean huge cancellations of orders......where would that leave A and B...?

User currently offlineTangowhisky From United States of America, joined Jun 2006, 929 posts, RR: 7
Reply 23, posted (8 years 1 week 4 hours ago) and read 8620 times:

Quoting Gr8Circle (Reply 22):
Given the above situation, how do Boeing and Airbus handle this....? After all, a lot of the orders that they both boast about are from airlines in the Middle East....if a collapse of even a small magnitude does occur down the line, that could mean huge cancellations of orders......where would that leave A and B...?

If it is the economy you are referring to, when was the last time you heard of an economic recession in Saudi Arabia or UAE?

Quoting MaverickM11 (Reply 20):
Uhh....duh! Are these same analysts predicting an overcapacity situation in the US in 2002?

Actually, quite a bit of planes did get parked in the desert starting in 2002.



Only the paranoid survive
User currently offlineAntiuser From Italy, joined May 2004, 657 posts, RR: 1
Reply 24, posted (8 years 1 week 4 hours ago) and read 8605 times:

Quoting Kiramakora (Reply 18):
I would not go on to state that UAE is a bastion of equality. Treatment of non-Gulf citizens, and expats from certain Western countries in particular jobs is very sad and dispecable.

Well, that'll vary from job to job, city to city and person to person... a friend of mine just returned from a 4-month assignment in Dubai and she said the people there were very nice and polite. Of course the UAE aren't a bastion of equality, but they're far from being a hard-line islamic nation.



Azzurri Campioni del Mondo!
25 Lehpron : Do you realize you are generalizing? You make it sound like most if not all Europeans do not care for the costs of a ticket if they can get somewhere
26 Post contains images MaverickM11 : Bye bye A380! I don't think a collapse in the Middle East would necessarily be terrible for Boeing or Airbus. They could probably easily place the ai
27 Jaysit : Well, nonstop flights are not more expensive than connecting flights. Right now (and for the next 5-10 years at least) is how do they get from Europe
28 Post contains links Khobar : Attacks in the US happened in 2001. Since 2001, attacks have happened or were foiled in the following countries: Israel Singapore Pakistan Tunisia Ru
29 AndesSMF : Most airlines have a nice history of ordering too many airplanes when times are good. Happened in the US several times in the last several decades. Th
30 Post contains images Jacobin777 : ........and what does that have to do with Airport security and CivilAv? Care to explain? ..and you certainly weren't able to contest my comment abou
31 Tangowhisky : Excellent point. But I was referring to the technical term of an economic recession: 2 quarters of negative GDP growth. So to come back to the excell
32 Kaitak744 : First, as many people here have said, the average educated person can tell the difference between Qatar & United Arab Emirates and the rest of the mid
33 Khobar : Nothing specifically. I was merely pointing out that terrorism is not restricted to any particular part of the world. However, I will point out that
34 74472 : I agree. What about the people travelling in the premium cabins ? Who will they fly with ?
35 AndesSMF : My understanding is that those three carriers mentioned are all attempting the same business plan in the same neck of the woods. Individually, each o
36 Jaysit : Again, it all depends. EK, QR and EY price their premium cabins substantially lower than the likes of BA and CX, not to mention UA and NW who have no
37 Gr8Circle : Now that you ask, let me update you....people generally think of the GCC countries as having unlimited wealth, etc.....in the mid-90's, when the pric
38 Khobar : Nicely put. It's hard to imagine Dubai being a hot spot for tourism, but it is attracting quite an interesting number of characters. The question is
39 Post contains links and images Jacobin777 : guess not..i'm a bit ignorant.... BA ended its flights, yet BD commenced and it has been proven to be profitable for them.... 9/11, recent UK bombing
40 Jaysit : Huh? And Emirates is one of the world's largest operators of 777s and A330s. What's your point? The 777 and A330 have allowed airlines outside the ma
41 74472 : I think you missed the point there ! A big grim point !!
42 Khobar : Again, irrelevant. The original comment was with regards to security and terrorist threats, real or imagined, at Middle East airports, and you asked
43 Tangowhisky : Actually it is the other way around. Airlines that built their hubs over the last 20 years, built these with the DC-9s, 727s, feeding 747-100/200s no
44 Jaysit : But where in the Gulf has terrorism affected flight operations? Nowhere. That's an extreme comparison. If that comparison were the standard by which
45 MaverickM11 : I've seen only 35% of all Dubai passengers are actually Dubai bound, and I think that number is even lower for EK alone.
46 Kiramakora : Yes. I meant: "Treatment of non-Gulf citizens, and expats from any non-Western countries, is very sad and dispecable in most jobs."
47 Post contains links Khobar : Saudi Arabia. Disney attracted 1.2 British tourists last year. That's why I wasn't thinking about American's having to decide between Disney and Duba
48 Tayaramecanici : Firstly, salutations (hail TW) for your excellent contributions to this forum, honestly its a pleasure reading your quality analysis. Regards financi
49 Post contains images Jacobin777 : ...try to get a flight from Europe-DXB even the middle of summer..planes are comletely full...aviation stats are proving that to be correct...... reg
50 Tangowhisky : Thanks for the kind words Tayaramecanici. You certainly have added your valuable and knowledgeable content to this thread and look forward to many mor
51 Post contains images PlaneHunter : EWR/IAH (CO), DTW/MSP (NW), DEN/IAD/ORD/SFO (UA), YYZ (CO), ZRH (LX), AMS (KL), FCO/MXP (AZ) and MAD (IB ) are still very strong hubs. And some of th
52 Tayaramecanici : In the abscence of credible institutes in Dubai, my sources are the dhow operators off the Abra in Deira and the idle Gold souk traders of Murraqabat
53 WesternA318 : HAH or AA, UA and CO all moving hubs into CDC at the same time... One wears a silk towel in the UAE and an Iraqi wears a dirty dishrag?
54 Post contains images PlaneHunter : Apparently you belong to the minority which can't seriously distinguish... Have you ever been to the UAE? PH
55 WesternA318 : I have been many times, to both Dubai AND to Doha. Lighten up.
56 PlaneHunter : Then you should have realized what's different from Iraq... PH
57 Joni : Analysts are a mixed bag, and useful for many purposes (not all of them advertised to consumer-investors). It should be kept in mind, that e.g. Emirat
58 Zvezda : No one is talking about 31" pitch on a 24 hour flight. SYD-LHR is about 21 hours, as is AKL-LHR. What could be longer? GRU-NRT? Also, if an airline w
59 BoomBoom : And where do they get this "fundamentally deeper" understanding? From hiring analysts...
60 Khobar : Irrelevant. Saudi Arabia counts. You seem to think I'm trying to argue that Dubai is not a tourist destination. I'm not. BTW, 236,000 Germans went to
61 Tayaramecanici : Saudi's Definately count, EMAAR one of the many real estate development companies floated by Dubai inc has a billion dirham project in Jeddah. If you
62 Tangowhisky : Exactly, until smaller but similar range planes such as 767-300ER, 777s, A340-300s came into the market. My point is that as LHR, FRA, and CDG siphon
63 PlaneHunter : 43 orders were placed directly with Airbus, two more will be leased. PH
64 Thorben : Some of their A330s are still to be delivered. They also just got an A346HGW and will get some more. Does anybody (besides Planehunter) think they'll
65 PlaneHunter : When did I suggest that? PH
66 Jush : Well I would assume if there is an overcapacity soon and they don't need more they'll cancel a lot of buying options.... What do you guys think. Will
67 Cobra27 : I think additional airport capacity wont be making a loss like overcapacity fleet. I always thought that emirates has bigger load factor than most ai
68 MaverickM11 : You must be an ardent member of the Airbus school of growth, while completely ignoring (reality and) the Boeing version.
69 Jacobin777 : Both co-exist.....EK/dubai isn't exactly like other carriers..while they have modeled themselves after SQ/country of Singapore to a certain extent, t
70 Post contains links Tangowhisky : Overcapacity is not only being echoed by credible analysts looking at hard data: current traffic patterns, forecast traffic patterns, economic indica
71 MaverickM11 : I find that hard to believe given the volume of seats to the Mediterranean. Do you have any quantitative data to back that up? How many visitors per
72 Post contains links and images Jacobin777 : DXB has had complete open skies agreements since 1986....... While I don't have all the numbers on hand..here is one link... " target=_blank>http://w
73 MaverickM11 : Just for comparison, PMI alone has 75% more daily seats from Europe than DXB, and you know barely a soul is connecting through PMI to anywhere, where
74 PlaneHunter : You're completely wrong, I have never denied the growing importance of p2p. Talking about "Airbus school" is simply ludicrous. Nonsense. Where did yo
75 Post contains images Jacobin777 : I did provide some stats, and I know you are intelligent enough MaverickM11 to get the information you need......
76 Post contains images MaverickM11 : I read it...it doesn't provide much insight into the air capacity in the region though . Everything you've said has been some permutation of "point t
77 Tayaramecanici : How many countries have signed a reciprocal open skies agreement with dubai till date ? DXB as a hub doesn't have sufficient base pax, as per IATA da
78 Tayaramecanici : This speech was mainly for the audience, Giovanni Bisignani was engaged by the Govt of India as a consultant to a panel set up for drawing the future
79 Post contains images Jacobin777 : The latter part of my comment didn't apply then? Quite a few have...certaily where EK flies..such as Germany where EK will fly TXL-JFK....it just goe
80 MaverickM11 : Turns out the % local for DXB (or DOH or AUH) is proving elusive.
81 PlaneHunter : Nonsense yet again. When did I say exactly that? I said it's unrealistic to assume that many of the SECONDARY destinations will be linked to each oth
82 Post contains images Jacobin777 : not worth the effort.....
83 Khobar : Yes irrelevant - you asked for an example and I provided one. That another airline has stepped in to fill the void doesn't matter to the question at
84 Tayaramecanici : Don't start writing the obituary of Bahrain as yet, remember that BAH & GF are at the same position where DXB & EK were 15yrs back against the other.
85 MaverickM11 : The circuity of going 186 miles to FRA, or a couple hundred miles to just about any other European hub, and then nonstop versus going through DXB is
86 PlaneHunter : Yet again you talk about nonstops from FRA (or other European hubs), ignoring the list I wrote... Btw - going back to CDG or LHR from MUC takes even
87 Thorben : You're the one who normally suggests that the T7 is light-years ahead of the A340 and that A340s with EK, AF or KU are to be replaced with T7s. Tell
88 Post contains images Jacobin777 : actually it isn't, as its a "1:1" replacement of a European carrier...=wash... yes....there will always be a statistical probability of that happenin
89 DAYflyer : Overcapacity means fewer A-380 orders down the road....
90 MaverickM11 : It depends on the routing. MUC-FRA-BKK is shorter than MUC-DXB-BKK. Anything to Africa is going to be shorter via FRA than DXB. No sh!t Dick Tracy. C
91 PlaneHunter : The T7 is ahead, but not "light-years". When exactly did I say that? I'm not their CEO... Yes, but BKK is not what I suggested. I didn't refer to Afr
92 MaverickM11 : You didn't suggest anything....nevermind the fact that people generally consider price and time of day departure over circuity. MUC-FRA-DEL is also s
93 Thorben : You said that with other words. And you're also not the CEO of AF, CX, KL, or KU. But still you know everything about their fleet policy.
94 PlaneHunter : Hint... Where's BKK? EK is very price competitive. And they offer both daylight and night departures. The time difference is not so significant that
95 MaverickM11 : You're contradicting yourself, after mentioning that backtracking from MUC to FRA/LHR/CDG was nonsensical here: You wouldn't say better? OK, then how
96 PlaneHunter : No, it may be a problem for one traveller, not for the other one. I just gave an example that it's not necessariy faster to go through a European hub
97 Post contains links Jacobin777 : Some good stuff about aviation and the Middle East... http://www.flightglobal.com/Home/Default.aspx
98 PlaneHunter : Thanks, indeed an interesting read. PH[Edited 2006-09-23 07:56:36]
99 Post contains images Jacobin777 : Your welcome...interesting to read about many of the comments which was mentioned above and about the risk as well as the wisdom some of the Middle E
100 Thorben : You said that "the superior performance of the 77W has been proven many times". "Airbus - well aware of having an inferior product - has not tried ha
101 PlaneHunter : So what exactly is wrong? This is actually happening. That's the plan. And? And? PH
102 Qantas744ER : Correct DXB has openksy since 1987
103 Post contains images MaverickM11 : You're missing the point. Even when the point is spelled out for you All your responses are based on whether the example I gave was on your list, ign
104 Thorben : And? And? And? With all your knowledge about the inferiority of the A340 and your insight into fleet planning you could answer the question whether Q
105 Tangowhisky : I caught the last few minutes of a segment that BBC News produced yesterday on this exact topic. I am trying to find a write up about it in its websit
106 Post contains images PlaneHunter : Your problem is you cannot deny the fact that EK is in a comfortable geographic location and can connect masses of secondary destinations which are u
107 Post contains images MaverickM11 : That's what you get from everything I've said??? Ignorance is bliss . Or just repeat yourself ad nauseam until the person with whom you're arguing ba
108 PlaneHunter : I have clearly explained my points and provided examples - if you can't deal with that it's not my problem. Getting personal and childish doesn't mak
109 DZ09 : Before making some dumb comments about the middle east in general or the UAE in particular, I suggest doing some research or maybe travel to the regio
110 Post contains images MaverickM11 : Here's all you've done: You've said connecting through Europe is out of the way and not sensible. Then you contradict yourself and say that it doesn'
111 MaverickM11 : That means zilch. Last time I was at DKR, the airport was packed from midnight until 4am at least. If anything, it means that the majority of passeng
112 PlaneHunter : My point was that travelling through a European hub is not necessarily faster than through DXB. I used it as an example and tried to show how many de
113 Jcavinato : Qatar Airlines has a great TV ad campaign on CNN International here in Europe. They call themselves a M.E. But, my thought was exactly about the growt
114 Post contains links Tangowhisky : Here is the link to the report by Booz Allan Hamilton: "Mastering the Challenges of the Middle East Aviation System" that got this whole thing stated
115 DZ09 : How can you possibly compare DKR to DXB? Have you ever been to DXB? You do not know what you're talking about? From reading some of your posts, I can
116 Post contains links Tayaramecanici : 20yrs back Dubai was no diff from the DKR of today, every carpetbagger was headed this way. In these 20yrs DXB has attracted many Drug Barons, Contra
117 DZ09 : Right! according to you, any country outside the western world is not capable of any success. I see many westerners in the UAE bitching and moaning a
118 Tayaramecanici : This is exactly the reason for the nemesis of the ME. Most of the EU nationals you mention wouldn't get a job as a car wash attendant in EU however t
119 MaverickM11 : I'm not comparing the two; I'm just pointing out the ludicrous claim that a full airport at 3am signifies anything meaningful. I have a clear bias ag
120 PlaneHunter : Immature comments like these don't contribute to the topic. EK's operations to Saudi Arabia are quite limited. It's not like they are dependant from
121 Post contains images MaverickM11 : 50%???
122 Post contains links Tangowhisky : Tayaramecanici, MaverickM11, DZ09 - Bravo! Great contributions!! However opposed, nice to read your posts. By the way, the other area that has become
123 Jacobin777 : Dubai had 6 million visitors last year..consistently growing at one of the fastest rates in the world....
124 Post contains images MaverickM11 : Out of a total of 24 million that passed through Dubai Airport....interesting .
125 Post contains images Jacobin777 : There is nothing silly about it.....25% and growing is a substantial number....
126 MaverickM11 : I don't think you really understand the dynamics of a hub. Why should the other 75% go through DXB, versus AUH, DOH, or who knows what other hub?
127 Post contains links PlaneHunter : Dubai's growing popularity as a destination has seen Emirates' transfer business decline to less than 50% in recent years - a situation that Clark co
128 MaverickM11 : You of all people should not be pontificating about hard data. I find that very hard to believe if EK flew 14 million people last year, and DXB had 6
129 Post contains images PlaneHunter : How ironic hearing that from you... Tell that to Flightglobal - probably they are also unaware of "hard data"... PH
130 Tayaramecanici : There you go again PH, without a understanding of the local leisure and business flows. The saudi's have invested heavily in Dubais real estate, infa
131 PlaneHunter : I don't question that - I simply said that EK's operations to Saudi Arabia are not significant. 17 weekly flights, to be exact. PH
132 Tayaramecanici : Its a very high YIELD market for EK, discounts on the EU - ANZ are dependent on these honey pots.
133 PlaneHunter : I don't question it to be a high yield market either - but I'd like to see some facts backing the claim about the discounts in such a massive way. PH
134 Tayaramecanici : EKs fares on the EU & ANZ routes are lower than the avg fares for these routes, whereas it is the opposite on the Saudi and Indian sub-continent rout
135 PlaneHunter : Do you have a source or a link to see a general overview? And what about cargo? I'm simply not satisfied with very general statements. I also base th
136 Post contains images Jacobin777 : sure, I have no idea what a hub is, I only lived by ORD for 3 decades..guess that's not a hub either..to answer your question...DXB/EK provide the be
137 Post contains links Jacobin777 : If there is over-capacity, I wonder why a conservative carrier like BA is adding flights to The Emirates.. fair use excerpt: "British Airways is addin
138 PlaneHunter : Thanks Jacob for posting these interesting articles. No surprise for me, but probably for certain other users. PH
139 Jacobin777 : No problem...as I mentioned earlier, the facts speak for themselves..simple as that.. Cheers.
140 CHRISBA777ER : Well this is one analyst that isnt predicting overcapacity. Did a review of the MEG airlines and trends in the region a year ago and was Bullish about
141 Ikramerica : because there is the demand now, and it will grow in the future, but the airlines in the region are adding 50+ A380s, 50+ 777s, 50+ 330/340/350s, etc
142 Post contains images MaverickM11 : Oh you LIVED next to a hub for 30 years so obviously you're well versed in the financials of that hub . Makes a lot of sense . Any idea why ORD, as a
143 PlaneHunter : Locals and expatriots also need to travel sometimes... PH
144 MaverickM11 : Huh? -6 million visitors to Dubai last year -14 million people carried by EK last year If EK carried every last visitor to DXB last year the local pe
145 PlaneHunter : 6 million visitors plus 1 million locals/expatriots plus some 7 million transit passengers would make a total of 14 million people - theoretically (i
146 Post contains images Jacobin777 : You missed my joke....hence me saying "to answer your question...:.
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