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The A380 Is Not Dead.  
User currently offlineCHRISBA777ER From UK - England, joined Mar 2001, 5964 posts, RR: 62
Posted (8 years 2 months 21 hours ago) and read 15748 times:

Joke for you.

An elderly Aussie man lay very sick in his bed. While suffering the agonies of
sickness, he suddenly smelled the aroma of his favourite
biscuits wafting up the stairs. He gathered his remaining strength, and
lifted himself from the bed.
Leaning on the wall, he slowly made his way out of the bedroom, and
with even greater effort, gripping the railing with both hands, he
crawled downstairs. With laboured breath, he leaned against the
door-frame, gazing into his homely Aussie kitchen.
Were it not for the pain, he would have thought himself already
in heaven, for there, spread out upon waxed paper on the kitchen
table were literally hundreds of his favourite biscuits.
Was it heaven? Or was it one final act of love from his devoted
Aussie wife of sixty years?

Mustering one great final effort, he threw himself towards the table,
landing on his knees in crumpled posture. His aged and withered hand
trembled towards a biscuit at the edge of the table, when it was
suddenly smacked by his wife with a spatula.............

"F**k off" she said, "they're for the funeral."

------------------------------------------------------

The A380 is very much still a viable aircraft. Why is everyone writing it off?

The delays are longer than anyone expected, but does a one year EIS delay mean the finished aircraft is suddenly unviable?

Question for you.

Whats worse?

A immature platform is brought to market and key customers buy initial examples and find them to be unsuitable.

A matured platform is brought to market with many of the key EIS bugs ironed out, but over a year late (although the delay has been handsomely compensated)?

Its pretty obvious I'd say.

Look to the future - the A380 wing was designed for a larger aircraft, and with GENX and new gen bleedless engines being rolled out for the Dreamliner and A350XWB, a re-engining looks likely. I think only then will we see the really true potential of the A380, so why have you all written it off?

I've read Richard Aboulafia's piece in the Morgan Stanley A380 debate and he sounds like a typical A-net Boeing cheerleader - obsessed with "platform XXX is better than platform XXX" rhetoric - I feel he takes a somewhat short term view on things, and grossly underestimates the FUTURE market for a VLA.

The A380 is not dead folks, so lets not be arranging the funeral yet please.


What do you mean you dont have any bourbon? Do you know how far it is to Houston? What kind of airline is this???
127 replies: All unread, showing first 25:
 
User currently offlineCobra27 From Slovenia, joined May 2001, 1029 posts, RR: 0
Reply 1, posted (8 years 2 months 21 hours ago) and read 15678 times:

Thank God for this topic. I thought it was really dead. Woow what a surprise.

User currently offlineAstuteman From United Kingdom, joined Jan 2005, 10169 posts, RR: 97
Reply 2, posted (8 years 2 months 20 hours ago) and read 15641 times:
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Quoting CHRISBA777ER (Thread starter):
I've read Richard Aboulafia's piece in the Morgan Stanley A380 debate and he sounds like a typical A-net Boeing cheerleader - obsessed with "platform XXX is better than platform XXX" rhetoric - I feel he takes a somewhat short term view on things, and grossly underestimates the FUTURE market for a VLA.

And yet he still predicts EADS being both profitable, cash-generating, and debt-reducing during all of the next 10 years, despite the "pessimistic" A380 message..  eyepopping 

Heaven help us if he was an A380 optimist  Smile

Regards


User currently offlineCHRISBA777ER From UK - England, joined Mar 2001, 5964 posts, RR: 62
Reply 3, posted (8 years 2 months 20 hours ago) and read 15611 times:

Quoting Astuteman (Reply 2):

I think his optimism is based on the A350XWB - he sure does love his big twins doesnt he?



What do you mean you dont have any bourbon? Do you know how far it is to Houston? What kind of airline is this???
User currently offlineDeltaDC9 From United States of America, joined Apr 2006, 2844 posts, RR: 4
Reply 4, posted (8 years 2 months 17 hours ago) and read 15193 times:

Quoting Solnabo (Reply 4):
Put a B infront of 380 and everything is hunky dory, with an A infront "it´s a stillborn/never gonna fly etc. etc."

Am I right or am I right?

Face it, the 380 is now the most delayed airliner in the entire history of jet powered civil aviation. This is not an A vs B thing.

I have read this board for years, and the bottom line is that people defend the 380 by attacking the people who said "it will never fly" who were few in number, but the real argument, the one that proved to be true, is that it the business plan was flawed. Airbus ceded a lucrative large market for a niche market and bragging rights.

To make it worse, the project management/change control effort was severely lacking, and customer relations were handled very badly.

I think it is time for the A-only fans to address the REAL criticism that has proved to be prophetic, and stop pointing to the "it will never fly" straw man provided by teenagers without a clue.



Dont take life too seriously because you will never get out of it alive - Bugs Bunny
User currently offlineBmacleod From Canada, joined Aug 2001, 2341 posts, RR: 0
Reply 5, posted (8 years 2 months 17 hours ago) and read 15193 times:

Quoting CHRISBA777ER (Thread starter):
The A380 is very much still a viable aircraft. Why is everyone writing it off?

Those are just a bunk off hard-core 747-8 fans desperate to get their aircraft in the air...



The engine is the heart of an airplane, but the pilot is its soul.
User currently offlineNASCARAirforce From United States of America, joined Feb 2005, 3184 posts, RR: 4
Reply 6, posted (8 years 2 months 17 hours ago) and read 15152 times:

Quoting DeltaDC9 (Reply 6):
Face it, the 380 is now the most delayed airliner in the entire history of jet powered civil aviation. This is not an A vs B thing.

More delayed than the L-1011?

Think positive. How many airports in the world are truely A-380 ready yet? The delay now gives these airports a chance to get A-380 ready.


User currently offlineNYC777 From United States of America, joined Jun 2004, 5796 posts, RR: 47
Reply 7, posted (8 years 2 months 17 hours ago) and read 15105 times:

Quoting Solnabo (Reply 4):
Put a B infront of 380 and everything is hunky dory, with an A infront "it´s a stillborn/never gonna fly etc. etc."

Am I right or am I right?

Instead of turning this into another A vs B war as you are apt to do, why don't you add something constructive to the discussion. That would be a refreshing change for you Solnabo.



That which does not kill me makes me stronger.
User currently offlineAutoThrust From Switzerland, joined Jun 2006, 1603 posts, RR: 9
Reply 8, posted (8 years 2 months 17 hours ago) and read 15083 times:

Quoting CHRISBA777ER (Thread starter):
I've read Richard Aboulafia's piece in the Morgan Stanley A380 debate and he sounds like a typical A-net Boeing cheerleader - obsessed with "platform XXX is better than platform XXX"

Indeed i readed also this debate and couldnt agree more. BTW great post!
 thumbsup 

Quoting CHRISBA777ER (Thread starter):
The A380 is not dead folks, so lets not be arranging the funeral yet please

A lot of A.Netters and "aviation enthusiasts" would like to see it dead, forgetting how much firms in the whole world are included in this program.
IMO both the 747 and the A380 are marvel of engeneering wich deserve their merit.

Quoting DeltaDC9 (Reply 6):
Face it, the 380 is now the most delayed airliner in the entire history of jet powered civil aviation.

Its also the biggest project in the entire history of civil aviation and yes even bigger then the 747.(sure its not a excuse but one should mind  Wink )

Quoting DeltaDC9 (Reply 6):
I think it is time for the A-only fans to address the REAL criticism that has proved to be prophetic, and stop pointing to the "it will never fly" straw man provided by teenagers without a clue.

Couldnt agree more, Airbus Management did a very bad job, a shame. banghead 



“Faliure is not an option.”
User currently offlineSeeTheWorld From United States of America, joined Dec 2005, 1325 posts, RR: 4
Reply 9, posted (8 years 2 months 17 hours ago) and read 15069 times:

Quoting Solnabo (Reply 4):
Put a B infront of 380 and everything is hunky dory, with an A infront "it´s a stillborn/never gonna fly etc. etc."

Am I right or am I right?

No, you are not right. The fact is, the management of the A380 project and communication regarding its issues have been an absolute failure, which unfortunately is going to have negative affect Airbus' for many years (in distractions and economics). Whether the A380 was the right or wrong size aircraft is not the issue anymore. This is not A vs. B - this a collosal management fiasco for Airbus.

Quoting Bmacleod (Reply 7):
Those are just a bunk off hard-core 747-8 fans desperate to get their aircraft in the air...

Speaking of desparate. That's a desparate argument and it's delusional. I'm a fan of all aircraft, and I hate to see serious issues like what Airbus is facing currently, but the A380 situation is serious and it's real, regardless of the viability of the aircraft. The A380 will most likely fly for many decades, but it is clear that the Airbus problems associated with this aircraft and the distractions and resources that have gone to try and fix the problems are enormous. The most distressing part is that it isn't clear whether they are close to solving the overall problem with the aircraft or the management structure at Airbus.


User currently offlineDeltaDC9 From United States of America, joined Apr 2006, 2844 posts, RR: 4
Reply 10, posted (8 years 2 months 17 hours ago) and read 15048 times:

Quoting NASCARAirforce (Reply 8):
More delayed than the L-1011?

Yes, as of this month.

Quoting Bmacleod (Reply 7):
Those are just a bunk off hard-core 747-8 fans desperate to get their aircraft in the air...

Desperate? Boeing does not need even half the engineers to produce the 748 as Airbus needs to produce the 380. The 748 project has required just a few hundred engineers, compared to thousands for the 380.

Apples and oranges.

Quoting NASCARAirforce (Reply 8):
Think positive. How many airports in the world are truely A-380 ready yet? The delay now gives these airports a chance to get A-380 ready.

I have never been able to think positive about the core business plan of the 380, and the project management has been amateurish at best. I am a fan of ALL aviation, and I will go out of my way just to see one on the ground dont get me wrong, but damn what a clusterf#$%! We are getting near Spruce Goose territory here.



Dont take life too seriously because you will never get out of it alive - Bugs Bunny
User currently offlineLeelaw From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 11, posted (8 years 2 months 17 hours ago) and read 15048 times:

Quoting NASCARAirforce (Reply 8):
More delayed than the L-1011?

In short, yes.

The maiden flight of A380 was on April 27, 2005. On or about Sunday, September 17, 2006, the A380 program surpassed the L1011's previous record of approximately 508 days (16 Nov 70 - 6 Apr 72) between maiden flight of the first test aircraft and delivery of the first production aircraft to a customer. Nevertheless, Lockheed went on to deliver approximately 17 L1011s during the remainder of 1972. Prior to the delay acknowledged last week, Airbus would not have delivered a cumulative total of 17 A380s until sometime in early 2008.


User currently offlineZvezda From Lithuania, joined Aug 2004, 10511 posts, RR: 64
Reply 12, posted (8 years 2 months 17 hours ago) and read 14989 times:

The WhaleJet isn't dead, but it is moribund in my opinion.

Quoting CHRISBA777ER (Thread starter):
The delays are longer than anyone expected, but does a one year EIS delay mean the finished aircraft is suddenly unviable?

The WhaleJet was already delayed more than a year (2 months + 6 months + 7 months) before the recently announced unspecified fourth delay. I believed the WhaleJet was unviable (in terms of returning a profit on the investment) before the first delay. I don't think anyone is seriously arguing that the WhaleJet is unviable in terms of being able to carry passengers and cargo. I don't think anyone is even arguing that there are no routes on which an airline can make money with it, though there is great disagreement over how many such routes exist.


User currently offlineCHRISBA777ER From UK - England, joined Mar 2001, 5964 posts, RR: 62
Reply 13, posted (8 years 2 months 17 hours ago) and read 14930 times:

Quoting Zvezda (Reply 14):
The WhaleJet isn't dead, but it is moribund in my opinion

Youve thought that from day one Zvezda.

Let me ask you a question.

Fast forward two years - EK, SQ, QF, and Etihad have all recieved their first A380s.

How do you think it will perform for them?



What do you mean you dont have any bourbon? Do you know how far it is to Houston? What kind of airline is this???
User currently offlineRevelation From United States of America, joined Feb 2005, 12840 posts, RR: 25
Reply 14, posted (8 years 2 months 16 hours ago) and read 14812 times:

Quoting Zvezda (Reply 14):
I believed the WhaleJet was unviable (in terms of returning a profit on the investment) before the first delay.

 checkmark 

Quoting CHRISBA777ER (Thread starter):
Look to the future - the A380 wing was designed for a larger aircraft, and with GENX and new gen bleedless engines being rolled out for the Dreamliner and A350XWB, a re-engining looks likely. I think only then will we see the really true potential of the A380, so why have you all written it off?

A re-engine program will mean tinkering with the pylons, engine interfaces, software, etc. and will need certification. That will add up to some non-trivial engineering time and costs, at the same time Airbus will be looking for engineers and euros for the A350XWB. It will also push out the A380's break even point. Also I wonder if PW/GE and RR will go for it: they probably haven't recovered the initial investment in the current generation engines.

If we're looking for good news, the A380F doesn't have an IFE, so they should be able to ship those on time, hopefully!  Smile



Inspiration, move me brightly!
User currently offlineDTW757 From United States of America, joined Oct 2003, 1588 posts, RR: 4
Reply 15, posted (8 years 2 months 16 hours ago) and read 14785 times:

Quoting DeltaDC9 (Reply 6):
Face it, the 380 is now the most delayed airliner in the entire history of jet powered civil aviation.

What about The Concorde which made it's first flight on March 2, 1969 and never entered service until January 21, 1976?



721,2,732,3,4,5,G,8,9,741,2,3,4,752,3,762,3,4,772,3,788,D93,5,M80,D10,M11,L10,100,AB6,319,20,21,332,3,346,388,146,CR2,7,
User currently offlineBmacleod From Canada, joined Aug 2001, 2341 posts, RR: 0
Reply 16, posted (8 years 2 months 16 hours ago) and read 14673 times:

Quoting DTW757 (Reply 17):
What about The Concorde which made it's first flight on March 2, 1969 and never entered service until January 21, 1976?

Different class of aircraft entirely. Supersonic speed and sonic boom complaints are factors having nothing to do with the A380 or the 747...



The engine is the heart of an airplane, but the pilot is its soul.
User currently offlineScouseflyer From United Kingdom, joined Apr 2006, 3398 posts, RR: 9
Reply 17, posted (8 years 2 months 16 hours ago) and read 14673 times:

Quoting DTW757 (Reply 17):
What about The Concorde which made it's first flight on March 2, 1969 and never entered service until January 21, 1976?

Good call - the Concordes also have to have the bigest loss on of cost of plane against sale price the BA ones were sold for £1 a copy!


User currently offlineAccess-Air From United States of America, joined Sep 2000, 1939 posts, RR: 13
Reply 18, posted (8 years 2 months 16 hours ago) and read 14572 times:

Quoting Leelaw (Reply 13):
The maiden flight of A380 was on April 27, 2005. On or about Sunday, September 17, 2006, the A380 program surpassed the L1011's previous record of approximately 508 days (16 Nov 70 - 6 Apr 72) between maiden flight of the first test aircraft and delivery of the first production aircraft to a customer. Nevertheless, Lockheed went on to deliver approximately 17 L1011s during the remainder of 1972.

Wasnt the delay with the L1011 due to a strike at Rolls Royce? That would hardly be the fault of Lockheed.
However, I think that had the L1011 had been offered with Pratts or GE's there mightnot have been such a long delay....Am I correct???

Access-Air



Remember, Wherever you go, there you are!!!!
User currently offlineDTW757 From United States of America, joined Oct 2003, 1588 posts, RR: 4
Reply 19, posted (8 years 2 months 16 hours ago) and read 14525 times:

Quoting Bmacleod (Reply 18):
Different class of aircraft entirely. Supersonic speed and sonic boom complaints are factors having nothing to do with the A380 or the 747...

The claim was that the A380 is now the most delayed aircraft in the entire history of jet powered civil aviation, a category in which the Concorde would fit into being supersonic or not.



721,2,732,3,4,5,G,8,9,741,2,3,4,752,3,762,3,4,772,3,788,D93,5,M80,D10,M11,L10,100,AB6,319,20,21,332,3,346,388,146,CR2,7,
User currently offlineRichardPrice From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 20, posted (8 years 2 months 16 hours ago) and read 14474 times:

Quoting Scouseflyer (Reply 19):
Good call - the Concordes also have to have the bigest loss on of cost of plane against sale price the BA ones were sold for £1 a copy!

No, they werent.

Its a rather annoying urban legend thats just false. BA got their original fleet for list price, and the extra planes for a lot more than £1 each.

[Edited 2006-09-25 16:53:06]

User currently offlineDavid L From United Kingdom, joined May 1999, 9533 posts, RR: 42
Reply 21, posted (8 years 2 months 16 hours ago) and read 14367 times:

Quoting Scouseflyer (Reply 19):
the BA ones were sold for £1 a copy!

They ordered 5 and paid more than the price of a 747 for each of those. They got 2 unsold models for £1 each. This information appears in just about every thread where Concorde is mentioned.

Quoting Scouseflyer (Reply 19):
the Concordes also have to have the bigest loss on of cost of plane against sale price

What about the B2707?  Smile

But it's true, supersonic transport was a different kettle of fish.


User currently offlineRichardPrice From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 22, posted (8 years 2 months 16 hours ago) and read 14272 times:

Quoting David L (Reply 23):
They ordered 5 and paid more than the price of a 747 for each of those. They got 2 unsold models for £1 each. This information appears in just about every thread where Concorde is mentioned.

Actually they paid list for 5, £1400 for another basic airframe and engines with no flight equipment or cabin, and the cost of a sale or return loan for the last airframe, which was absorbed by BA over a number of years so its not known what exactly they paid for that airframe.

BA didnt order the last two, they were dropped options from other airlines.


User currently offlineIncitatus From Brazil, joined Feb 2005, 4047 posts, RR: 13
Reply 23, posted (8 years 2 months 16 hours ago) and read 14272 times:

Quoting CHRISBA777ER (Thread starter):
Look to the future - the A380 wing was designed for a larger aircraft,

What an excellent point! Now let's look at how larger that yet-to-be-launched version must be and how large the market for it will be. And how much money it takes to develop the A380 program further. Possibly the demand for the A380 size plane is 15 years away and for being so soon Airbus will never make a dime off of it.

Quoting Bmacleod (Reply 7):
Those are just a bunk off hard-core 747-8 fans desperate to get their aircraft in the air...

Not all of us are in that category. Airplanes are not soap and Airbus was driven like it was Procter & Gamble. Airbus makes some good products but deserves no break.



Stop pop up ads
User currently offlineBnamaxx From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 24, posted (8 years 2 months 16 hours ago) and read 14221 times:

Quoting NASCARAirforce (Reply 8):
Think positive. How many airports in the world are truely A-380 ready yet? The delay now gives these airports a chance to get A-380 ready.

Right! If I'm an airport manager, I'm going to say "Oh great! This bird is delayed again. NOW we can spend that $500 million to add a couple of double decker gates and pour more concrete. Of course we will never see the thing fly here, but at least we can put 'A380 Ready' on our website!"

I don't see ATL or ORD rushing to make any announcements since all these delays. It seems kind of hollow that the world's two busiest airports have no plans to accomodate this albatross doesn't it?


25 CHRISBA777ER : Yes but in 15 yrs the A388 will be a fully-matured and widely utilised type - we will know then how the VLA market segment is shaping up. I would res
26 Post contains images Stitch : Eddie Valiant said it best in Who Framed Roger Rabbit - "Everybody needs a hobby." Still, a number of people (but by no means "everyone") just look a
27 Post contains images David L : You're right, of course. I just get tired when the same old myth keeps coming up - I was focussing on the "full price for the ones they ordered" busi
28 Post contains images RichardPrice : Nah, Im just at work
29 Post contains images Stitch : The plane was never sold (though it was ordered - not sure if monies actually changed hands, however), so it doesn't count.
30 Post contains images David L : Hmm... s'pose.
31 Flysherwood : Airbus needs to start worrying about it's survival from all of these problems. In business, there is one worry that transcends all industries and size
32 TeamAmerica : The analysis was by Morgan Stanley, not Richard Aboulafia. Mr. Aboulafia provided his views on the A380 and that's all. Morgan Stanley, a company tha
33 AirFRNT : Chris, What you basically are saying here (and indeed the entire A380 program is based on the thought that) "Ignore the statistics and the trends, tu
34 Post contains images Mowtoib : Oh guys... Aren't you tired of saying all this over and over again?
35 Shenzhen : What makes anyone think that it is either one or the other, just because it is delayed a couple years. My gut says the airlines will receive an airpl
36 Futurecaptain : The future? More than likely somewhere between small and completely crappy. Sure, the size of the a/c is bigger than the 747, noone would argue that.
37 Post contains images Zvezda : Well, not from day one, but since the Dead Sea was ill. Perform in what sense? Technically or financially? Technically, I expect the WhaleJet to be a
38 Stitch : For the record, I'm not against the A380, nor do I feel it's some huge mistake doomed to crush Airbus. So the following comments and observations are
39 RichardPrice : And yet the 777 still sold fantastically well, the 747 managed to support another entire iteration very successfully, the A330 flourished and Boeing
40 Madairdrie : IMO both the A and B theories of the future are correct. What we have to remember is that more and more people are flying and more frequently every da
41 Zvezda : I agree with Stitch (and apologize for paraphrasing) that the biggest problem for Airbus with the WhaleJet is not the money invested that they will ne
42 YULWinterSkies : These airports are busy because they are the main hubs of the 3 largest US airlines, AA, UA, and DL, and they are busy of RJ and narrow-bodies essent
43 Bnamaxx : [quote=YULWinterSkies,reply=44]These airports are busy because they are the main hubs of the 3 largest US airlines, AA, UA, and DL, and they are busy
44 Zvezda : Mariners considered the albatross to be a portent of good luck.
45 Hotelbravo : I disagree with this. The fact is, the number of people who want and can afford to travel is going to increase dramatically in the next 40 years, wit
46 Post contains links and images TeamAmerica : Some beautiful aircraft have been called "Albatross":
47 Zvezda : That has been the case during the last twenty years also, but it hasn't stopped the average airliner size from decreasing. New city pairs keep openin
48 Shankly : Not more than four years ago, more members of this forum than would now dare admit were writting the obituaries for Boeing...a fadding production line
49 Hotelbravo : The aerodynamics and materials on the 748 will both be inferior to those of the A380. So again, I disagree. The only reason the 748 MIGHT have a CASM
50 Zvezda : The WhaleJet may have a slight aerodynamic advantage over the SuperJumbo, despite the wings of the latter being designed later. However, the SuperJum
51 NASCARAirforce : Weren't there some airports still in the world not up to par in A380 accomodations that are supposed to see A380 service How many airports in the U.S
52 TeamAmerica : The fact is the cost of travel is going to increase dramatically in the next 40 years as well. Affluence in China and India will increase demand for
53 DeltaDC9 : Not true, and those are not the only factors. The 380 is carrying a LOT of dead weight affecting its efficiency. The cargo version carries just a sma
54 Zvezda : This is not a requirement for WhaleJet ops. Think about it. Why not space the gates so that JumboJets can fit next to each other (as many airports ha
55 AndesSMF : They already have become major airline consumers in the last few years, but how many A380s have they purchased in the last few years?
56 Galapagapop : Well possibly, but remember the thread from a few weeks back about UAL frequencies to DEN from ORD? With mention of AA's ORD-DFW. And its been about
57 N328KF : I think more significant a comparison between the A380 and both the 787 and A350XWB. In the case of the former, it is the last new full-sized airline
58 Post contains images Glideslope : Fair enough. Let's just go with the Living Will.
59 747hogg : Aluminimum and Electricity spell disaster! It's never worked out in avation, and I feel sure it never will. They simply must find some other way to ge
60 Zvezda : I that's exaggerated. Am I enthusiastic about aluminium wiring on an airliner? No, of course not. Will I fly on the WhaleJet? Absolutely. There is pr
61 Post contains images ER757 : Actually I think it's yet to be proved one way or the other. Only after the A380 enters service and is flying for several years will we truly be able
62 Post contains images Johnny : COULD SOMEBODY EXPLAIN THE TWO YEARS DELAY,PLEASE? AFAIK THE ORIGINAL PLANNED EIS WAS IN 2006, THE NEW ONE IS EXPECTED IN 2007...
63 BoomBoom : Why aren't you enthusiastic about aluminum wiring on an airliner?
64 JAAlbert : Awwe come on! What else are we gonna do on line here? Nothin's really happening at Boeing and Airbus (well except for the 16 mystery 787s that we've
65 Post contains links Brendows : EIS was planned to take place in the second quarter of 2006, when the first bird for SQ will be delivered isn't known yet. Why do some talk about a t
66 WingedMigrator : No, the FAA has granted wavers on both items. Refer to Engineering Briefs 63A and 65. And flies MUCH MUCH less range with its max payload. Same thing
67 Zvezda : The delays so far have been 2 months + 6 months + 7 months = 15 months. The magnitude of the fourth delays is still unknown, but if it is at least 4
68 CHRISBA777ER : I see what you are saying AirFRNT, but I think the issue is with forecasting. Analyst are divided not by what manufacturer they prefer, but by how th
69 CHRISBA777ER : Ok (very dumbed down - apologies for that) straw poll for you. You have two overbooked flights. LHR - SFO/MIA/JNB wherever. Both are 100% full. One is
70 Post contains images Baroque : Kindly remove your spy cameras from my house Mr Chris!!! And the trace on my keystrokes that knew I was posting about if being early for flowers and
71 CHRISBA777ER : Welcome to my RU List! LOL!!!
72 AndesSMF : Your assumption is that Aboulafia and other detractors are calling the A380 a wrong product. The question about the A380 is essentially this one: How
73 CHRISBA777ER : No - the trend is - China went from buying TU154s, to A310s and 767s, to 777s, 747s, and A340s... Where do you see this going? Regional Jets? India -
74 CHRISBA777ER : Also dont forget the "bling" factor - some airlines want the A380 because of what it is - prestige and good PR/advertising out of the box. Kingfisher,
75 CHRISBA777ER : There is an obsession with break even - i think its fair to say that the A380 will do what Airbus designed it to do - it will take the Lion's share o
76 AndesSMF : I think that says it all and we are in agreement. The only issue to me about the A380 was the quantity of the market, not whether the market existed.
77 Post contains links Columba : http://news.airwise.com/story/view/1159241549.html
78 Post contains images Halibut : Agreed ! It's certainly not dead . However , the A380 project killed Airbus's " the very lucrative " mid-market for 1/2 a decade & may very well kill
79 CHRISBA777ER : How about we all look past the A B thing and actually take each issue objectively?
80 DeltaDC9 : That would be great, but then again so would winning the lottery and permenant world peace. I do not disagree, of course there are parts of the busin
81 Cazito : What about the E-jets? Maiden flight: 19-feb-2002 First delivery: 08-mar-2004 748 days (E-170) vs. 517 days (A-380).
82 DeltaDC9 : But what was the plan?
83 Post contains images Johnny : @Zvezda "The average size of airliner sold has been dropping for twenty years. That's a cold, hard fact, not an opinion." -Nonsense,look at the B743/7
84 Zvezda : The answer is impossible to determine from the information provided. All else being equal (network, service levels, etc.), operator Y will have much
85 JAL : Any more delays it might as well be dead!
86 Brendows : Look at what happened on routes across the Atlantic when the 767s started flying, and later on the 757. You'll find that most aircraft flying routes
87 Katekebo : Well, then in few years you will have to travel by boat, because Boeing is likely to use aluminum wiring in B787, too. Although aluminum wire is thic
88 AirFrnt : MR Aboulafia has a history of being a equal opportunity basher. IF Airbus fan boys want to get off, go read what he wrote about Boeing in the late 90
89 Post contains images CHRISBA777ER : The answer is - the operator with the lower costs. Forgive me the laboured nature of the point i'm trying to make. CASM and choice of aircraft made a
90 Post contains links Leelaw : Mr. Udvar-Hazy is an A380 "bear?" From FI 21 March 2006: ILFC predicts A380 demand surge Leasing company forecasts flurry of orders, with the yet-to-
91 747hogg : As ANY business flyer will tell you, yell at you, vent at you... It's not volume. It's SPEED for christ sake! WE NEED TO GET THERE FASTER! 18 hours se
92 Zvezda : Sorry, that's rubbish. You just can't conclude that from the givens in your scenario. On a few routes with very fat demand curves a WhaleJet could ma
93 CHRISBA777ER : No - BABAM - balance all, bring all to mind. Look at all sides of the issue before you make your mind up. Remember what all fund managers tell you -
94 N844AA : Out of curiosity, what are these US-specific market forces that have distorted the American airline industry?
95 Stitch : And that seems to be the key to the 744F and 748F winning the majority of new-build freighter orders as the world's cargo infrastructure is geared to
96 Zvezda : China has more than a dozen cities with a population over 5 million. International flights to/from China will fragment faster than anywhere else on t
97 CHRISBA777ER : Apologies Zvezda - i was trying to prove a point. The point was - even the most knowledgable people in the industry, or on here - ie: you - when aske
98 Zvezda : Thank you for the kind words. Nothing to apologize for. Rhetorical questions are fine. The main determinants of aircraft choice are CASM, payload/ran
99 CHRISBA777ER : What does the US consumer want above all else? Where else in the world is frequency the most important factor to the customer?
100 CHRISBA777ER : A louder noise on the A380 compared to anything seen before (recently) though wouldnt you say?
101 Post contains images CHRISBA777ER : Got to say, havent enjoyed a thread this much in years - a welcome return to form from A-Net - thanks guys!
102 N844AA : Well, I really have no idea then. I'd imagine the answer to your first question is "price," since that's the popular conception of the U.S. domestic
103 CHRISBA777ER : Yup. RJs rule.
104 N844AA : So what differentiates the U.S. market from other markets with respect to a preference for frequency? The only thing immediately springing to mind ar
105 Post contains images Astuteman : I nearly agree with that, Zvezda. But for me, the key determinant of choice for any airline's acquisition is ROI (return on investment) for the capit
106 AirFrnt : Price. Then Frequency. I doubt that the average consumer would not pay more then $20 bucks to fly on a larger plane, or $100 for a non-stop versus a
107 CHRISBA777ER : Yes, but in order to have this, airlines' costs base goes up, therefore meals, beverages, pillows and service levels go down, and flight costs creep
108 Post contains images Zvezda : Generally, whereever business travel dominates leisure travel. I stand corrected. Thank you Astuteman. Price and expected depreciation are also impor
109 BoomBoom : Where did you hear this?
110 Zvezda : I think that's an extrapolation too far. B757s fly across the Atlantic, but still most transatlantic flights are on widebodies. The reason is that th
111 AndesSMF : That may be the case now. But as the Asian markets mature, their middle class increases, and more leisure travel options are available, price becomes
112 N844AA : The Far East won't accept what? The diminution of services or an increase in prices? Why wouldn't the Far East market conform to the market segmentat
113 Post contains images Stitch : The 737-700ER can do at least SEA-NRT, yet I don't see UA swapping out one for the 777 handling UA875 and UA876.
114 AirFRNT : I should have said "CASM competitive" 737. But the line of thought still stands. When (not if) twin narrowbodies get the range to do the LAX to NRT r
115 Zvezda : In theory, just looking at the business case, that's true. However, it ignores the reality of the physics involved. The B737NG already has a much hig
116 Tayaramecanici : [quote=N844AA,reply=113]I don't mean for these questions to sound accusatory, as I fear they might. I just don't understand how the U.S. market is dis
117 CHRISBA777ER : I'm merely suggesting that there is more to the global airline industry than what is the accepted in the US.
118 Joni : Why would it? These analyses were made by Airbus before they launched the A380 and had to do with population distributions (in the Far East, populati
119 Revelation : Seems to me Kingfisher isn't following these rules: do they even have a demand curve that could justify 5*A380?
120 Zvezda : Perhaps I should have written "forecast demand curve."
121 BoomBoom : You really didn't answer the question. Why will people in India and China prefer extra connections through hubs? Is their time any less valuable than
122 Shenzhen : Take a look at AirAsia...... Cheers
123 BoomBoom : What about it?
124 Shenzhen : My comment was in support of your idea that Asia will change or is already in the process.... Cheers
125 Zvezda : The flaw in the analysis appears to be the assumption that all those people are distributed in a way that is highly conducive to hub operations. With
126 Tayaramecanici : Most of India's Tier 2 (non-metros) cities connect to the ME or a few SE-Asian destinations however a large portion of the travelling elite (mainly t
127 Zvezda : The future will see a lot of nonstop service betwee India and the States, bypassing LHR and other european hubs.
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