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Thai Airways Re-Consider A380 Order  
User currently offlinePanAm_DC10 From Australia, joined Aug 2000, 4165 posts, RR: 90
Posted (8 years 1 day 11 hours ago) and read 16578 times:
AIRLINERS.NET CREW
COMMUNITY MANAGER

According to a local report TG "looks unlikely" to take their A380s

The new Suvarnabhumi airport was built to accommodate the huge planes, which never have carried a paying passenter. Thai Airways International was to buy several, but now looks unlikely to take delivery.

http://www.bangkokpost.com/breaking_news/breakingnews.php?id=113249

Regards, PanAm_DC10


Ask the impossible to achieve the best possible
80 replies: All unread, showing first 25:
 
User currently offlineKaitak744 From United States of America, joined Jul 2005, 2379 posts, RR: 3
Reply 1, posted (8 years 1 day 11 hours ago) and read 16572 times:

Well, they need the capacity, and the A340-600 is not big enough. 747-8?

User currently offlineOsiris30 From Barbados, joined Sep 2006, 3192 posts, RR: 25
Reply 2, posted (8 years 1 day 11 hours ago) and read 16497 times:

Quoting Kaitak744 (Reply 1):
Well, they need the capacity, and the A340-600 is not big enough. 747-8?

If they do bow out of their 380s and the really need large single frame capacity, then yes the 748 would be the likely choice. However, I'm not sure a larger number of smaller birds (777/346) wouldn't fit better.



I don't care what you think of my opinion. It's my opinion, so have a nice day :)
User currently offlineZvezda From Lithuania, joined Aug 2004, 10511 posts, RR: 64
Reply 3, posted (8 years 1 day 11 hours ago) and read 16497 times:

Quoting Kaitak744 (Reply 1):
the A340-600 is not big enough.

The A340-600 is not big enough to do what? Carry passengers? Impress A.netters?


User currently offlineNewark777 From United States of America, joined Dec 2004, 9348 posts, RR: 29
Reply 4, posted (8 years 1 day 10 hours ago) and read 16470 times:

Quoting Zvezda (Reply 3):
The A340-600 is not big enough to do what? Carry passengers? Impress A.netters?

Do you think through your responses before you post?

It's not big enough to hold as many passengers as the A380 would have.

Harry



Why grab a Heine when you can grab a Busch?
User currently offlineZvezda From Lithuania, joined Aug 2004, 10511 posts, RR: 64
Reply 5, posted (8 years 1 day 10 hours ago) and read 16430 times:

Quoting Newark777 (Reply 4):
It's not big enough to hold as many passengers as the A380 would have.

Who cares? The A340-600 is big enough to meet TG's needs. The only disadvantage of the A340-600 is CASM. It is certainly not too small.


User currently offlineNewark777 From United States of America, joined Dec 2004, 9348 posts, RR: 29
Reply 6, posted (8 years 1 day 10 hours ago) and read 16402 times:

Quoting Zvezda (Reply 5):
Who cares? The A340-600 is big enough to meet TG's needs

Then explain, why did they order the A380 in the first place? Someone who actually worked there obviously thought differently than you.

Harry



Why grab a Heine when you can grab a Busch?
User currently offlineKaitak744 From United States of America, joined Jul 2005, 2379 posts, RR: 3
Reply 7, posted (8 years 1 day 10 hours ago) and read 16320 times:

Well, on a route where they could get a 95% load factor on a 747 would be very foolish to put an A340-600 on. Hence, the 747-8 or even the slightly bigger 777-300ER would be better (if they indeed cancel the A380).

User currently offlineZvezda From Lithuania, joined Aug 2004, 10511 posts, RR: 64
Reply 8, posted (8 years 1 day 10 hours ago) and read 16303 times:

Quoting Newark777 (Reply 6):
Then explain, why did they order the A380 in the first place? Someone who actually worked there obviously thought differently than you.

TG are interested in maximizing profitability, not airliner size. The idea that the A340-600 is not "big enough" is just silly.


User currently offlineZvezda From Lithuania, joined Aug 2004, 10511 posts, RR: 64
Reply 9, posted (8 years 1 day 10 hours ago) and read 16198 times:

Quoting Kaitak744 (Reply 7):
Well, on a route where they could get a 95% load factor on a 747 would be very foolish to put an A340-600 on.

Maybe, maybe not. It depends on the shape of the demand curve. There is always a fare price at which one can get 95% load factors on a B747. That's true whether the airliner that maximizes profitability is an RJ or a B747.


User currently offlinePlanesNTrains From United States of America, joined Feb 2005, 5590 posts, RR: 29
Reply 10, posted (8 years 1 day 10 hours ago) and read 16198 times:

Quoting Newark777 (Reply 9):
Do you know anything about the aviation industry? It doesn't sound so. Read what Kaitak said:

Quoting Kaitak744 (Reply 7):
Well, on a route where they could get a 95% load factor on a 747 would be very foolish to put an A340-600 on. Hence, the 747-8 or even the slightly bigger 777-300ER would be better (if they indeed cancel the A380).

The question is, how much are all those people paying? Obviously, if you have 400 seats to fill, you'll price it however you need to to fill them. If you can reduce your costs more than your revenue by flying a 300 seater, then there is no need to upgauge.

Certainly, if the 744's are full of high paying passengers, then the A380 might make sense. If not, then why spend the money?

-Dave



Next Trip: SEA-ABQ-SEA on Alaska
User currently offlineZvezda From Lithuania, joined Aug 2004, 10511 posts, RR: 64
Reply 11, posted (8 years 1 day 10 hours ago) and read 16170 times:

Quoting PlanesNTrains (Reply 11):
The question is, how much are all those people paying? Obviously, if you have 400 seats to fill, you'll price it however you need to to fill them. If you can reduce your costs more than your revenue by flying a 300 seater, then there is no need to upgauge.

 checkmark  As airliner size increases, RASM always decreases. CASM usually decreases too, but not always. Profitability depends on the shape as well as the magnitude of the demand curve.


User currently offlineKen777 From United States of America, joined Mar 2004, 8297 posts, RR: 8
Reply 12, posted (8 years 1 day 10 hours ago) and read 16118 times:

I have no idea if TG is going to cancel the 380, but it seems that the aviation world has changed a bit since they ordered it - especially in terms of the 748i.

The delays give TG an opportunity to re-evaluate their 380 order in light of new alternatives. I have a feeling that it the 380 still looks better when all factors are considered then the order will stay. If other options look better then TG will take advantage of any cancellation clause that might be in the contract. I would say it is a toss right now for TG and, maybe for some other airlines.


User currently offlineNewark777 From United States of America, joined Dec 2004, 9348 posts, RR: 29
Reply 13, posted (8 years 1 day 10 hours ago) and read 16072 times:

Quoting Zvezda (Reply 10):
There is always a fare price at which one can get 95% load factors on a B747

Of course, but how much about Thai do you know about in order to be making these complex decisions. To say, without any numbers or analysis, that:

Quoting Zvezda (Reply 8):
The idea that the A340-600 is not "big enough" is just silly.

is ridiculous. Until you back that up with something, I will side with the Thai executives who made the decision, and most certainly thoroughly went through the numbers.

Harry



Why grab a Heine when you can grab a Busch?
User currently offline6thfreedom From Bermuda, joined Sep 2004, 3329 posts, RR: 20
Reply 14, posted (8 years 1 day 10 hours ago) and read 16049 times:

Quoting Kaitak744 (Reply 1):
and the A340-600 is not big enough.

TG's A346s definately are not big enough!
They are only configured with 267 seats!

So the CASM are even higher than other A346 operators...

eg. VS offers 308 or 311 seats...


User currently offlineKaitak From Ireland, joined Aug 1999, 12480 posts, RR: 34
Reply 15, posted (8 years 1 day 9 hours ago) and read 16004 times:

I'd be very surprised if TG cancelled its A380s; there are various reasons, some political and some economical. For a start, Thailand is now ruled by a military junta and they would not like to send out the message that the country (or its airline) is rowing backwards. In other words, it's a pride issue for them. Don't think it doesn't have a place in aviation nowadays.

The second reason is that Bangkok is expected to be one of Asia's major gateways (of course it is already, but even moreso) and that means TG will need the uplift capacity. There are already quite a few routes, particularly to Europe, which will need it.

The other issue is that this media report is simply factually incorrect. It states that it's unlikely that TG will take delivery of the acft when TG has not formally cancelled the order, nor has made any attempt to do so.


User currently offlineTeamAmerica From United States of America, joined Sep 2006, 1761 posts, RR: 23
Reply 16, posted (8 years 1 day 8 hours ago) and read 15796 times:

Quoting PanAm_DC10 (Thread starter):
but now looks unlikely to take delivery.

Might be that the words "on schedule" are missing from the end of the sentence. We need much more than this even to consider it a rumor.

Quoting Newark777 (Reply 9):
Quoting Zvezda (Reply 8):
The idea that the A340-600 is not "big enough" is just silly.

Do you know anything about the aviation industry? It doesn't sound so.

Dude, you deserve a  footinmouth  for that. And you've been a member for almost two years?



Failure is not an option; it's an outcome.
User currently offline474218 From United States of America, joined Oct 2005, 6340 posts, RR: 9
Reply 17, posted (8 years 1 day 8 hours ago) and read 15777 times:

Quoting 6thfreedom (Reply 15):
TG's A346s definately are not big enough!
They are only configured with 267 seats!

Does every TG A346 flight takeoff 100% full? If it does then they need more capacity.


User currently offlineNewark777 From United States of America, joined Dec 2004, 9348 posts, RR: 29
Reply 18, posted (8 years 1 day 8 hours ago) and read 15727 times:

Quoting TeamAmerica (Reply 17):
Dude, you deserve a footinmouth for that. And you've been a member for almost two years?

What are you talking about?

Harry



Why grab a Heine when you can grab a Busch?
User currently offlineCentrair From Japan, joined Jan 2005, 3598 posts, RR: 20
Reply 19, posted (8 years 1 day 8 hours ago) and read 15727 times:

After reading the article I had to laugh.

Quote:
The jets seat between 481 and 853 passengers, depending on how close to one another the seats are.

Simplistic thinking. I am not taking this article seriously.

Quote:
Some lines, including Virgin Atlantic and Air France, are reportedly mulling cancelling and buying Boeing jets instead.

Hmmm... Virgin is going to wait for the A380. Air France...not sure but sure would look bad if the Hometown carrier canceled a hometown product.

I doubt TG will cancel. They invested in the airport to make it A380 ready and TG will need this plane. Even if they cancel, turn around and buy the 748i, they would have to wait even longer for a plane that can take their estimated capacity.



Yes...I am not a KIX fan. Let's Japanese Aviation!
User currently offlineReggaebird From Jamaica, joined Nov 1999, 1176 posts, RR: 0
Reply 20, posted (8 years 1 day 8 hours ago) and read 15713 times:

One important factor, regarding Thai's A380 order, is being neglected here. If the Thai A380 order was deemed to be a backdoor deal with the government of the former PM, the country might see it as a "dirty deal", making it OK to cancel the order without Thailand losing face.

By the way, has anyone noticed how little commentary about the coup has come from Western leaders? I think that's because they think that it was justified.

Reggaebird


User currently offlineKhobar From United States of America, joined Mar 2006, 2379 posts, RR: 4
Reply 21, posted (8 years 1 day 8 hours ago) and read 15671 times:

Quoting Newark777 (Reply 6):
Then explain, why did they order the A380 in the first place?

"TSUNAMI-struck Thailand has been told by the European Commission that it must buy six A380 Airbus aircraft if it wants to escape the tariffs against its fishing industry.

"While millions of Europeans are sending aid to Thailand to help its recovery, trade authorities in Brussels are demanding that Thai Airlines, its national carrier, pays £1.3 billion to buy its double-decker aircraft. "

http://thescotsman.scotsman.com/international.cfm?id=66782005


User currently offlineOsiris30 From Barbados, joined Sep 2006, 3192 posts, RR: 25
Reply 22, posted (8 years 1 day 8 hours ago) and read 15648 times:

Quoting Khobar (Reply 22):
"TSUNAMI-struck Thailand has been told by the European Commission that it must buy six A380 Airbus aircraft if it wants to escape the tariffs against its fishing industry.

"While millions of Europeans are sending aid to Thailand to help its recovery, trade authorities in Brussels are demanding that Thai Airlines, its national carrier, pays £1.3 billion to buy its double-decker aircraft. "

I remember that and it was pretty damned disgusting.. probably turned me more anti-380 than any other single piece of news.



I don't care what you think of my opinion. It's my opinion, so have a nice day :)
User currently offlineNewark777 From United States of America, joined Dec 2004, 9348 posts, RR: 29
Reply 23, posted (8 years 1 day 8 hours ago) and read 15626 times:

Quoting Khobar (Reply 22):

"TSUNAMI-struck Thailand has been told by the European Commission that it must buy six A380 Airbus aircraft if it wants to escape the tariffs against its fishing industry.

Wow, that's awful, I didn't know about that.

Harry



Why grab a Heine when you can grab a Busch?
User currently offlineJustloveplanes From United States of America, joined Jul 2004, 1060 posts, RR: 1
Reply 24, posted (8 years 1 day 8 hours ago) and read 15572 times:

Quoting Osiris30 (Reply 23):
I remember that and it was pretty damned disgusting.. probably turned me more anti-380 than any other single piece of news.

I don't think the article is as bad as it sounds. It was not related to the Tsunami as negotiations started before the storm. It's just that the timing made it appear that it was tied to Tsunami aid, so it looked disgusting but wasn't. That's how I read it anyway. As for the prawns for planes on it own, I as a Boeing fan, cannot crow about the US 97% prawn tariff.

BTW, I cooked some Thai prawns today (Black Tiger variety, cooked sezchuan style) and they were fresh, peeled, deveined and awesomely delicious.

JLP


25 Vincewy : TG needs the capacity, in fact, the new airport is already crowded (Don Muang was way over-crowded) and expansions are necessary. I'm surprised they o
26 HB-IWC : I have no idea whether TG will actually hold on to its A380 commitment and I do not normally enter in these kinds of topics, but one should not undere
27 Kaitak744 : With 6 gates, Thai can have 36 daily A380 departures. That is quite enough for now. (note: not all the A380s will be on the ground at the same given
28 DEVILFISH : If the report was accurate and the tariffs were applied even after the A380s were ordered and that was the "quid pro quo" then the Thais were well wi
29 Osiris30 : Actually I was referring to what happened rather than the article. Honestly those discussions should have been put on the back-burner if not dropped
30 Jet-lagged : Actually, I don't think the article give any evidence that TG is considering cancellation. The journalist uses senstionalist language by writing that
31 Clickhappy : Not like the U.S. ever leans on governments to "buy Boeing" or anything. Anyone seen those new El Al A330s?
32 Newark777 : "Leaning on someone" versus threatening tariffs on a natural disaster ravaged country? Ridiculous. Harry
33 DfwRevolution : In the case of El Al, Israel is a nation that benefits from billions of dollars in military aide from the United States on an annual basis. They shou
34 Post contains links Clickhappy : Those negotiations were done before the Tsunami. In other news, the U.S. hit Thailand and India with new tariffs on their seafood exports, less than t
35 Osiris30 : Doesn't make that right either.. both are disgraceful.
36 Post contains images DeltaJet757 : With all these runway extensions and what-not and the planes not being delivered and airlines canceling orders it sound like one huge kick in the ass
37 Post contains images WingedMigrator : Where are the cancelled orders? That's a new one. most definitely. It's probably too advanced. For instance, to achieve the highest level of reliabil
38 Zvezda : No need to be so tough on him; he's just a kid. When I was his age, I didn't understand the aviation business any better than he does.
39 NewYorkCityBoi : Well the only routes they use A346 are Auckland, Moscow, Zurich, Milan, Melbourne... definitely only the route with low capacity but long range. Or t
40 Zvezda : Those routes could be downgauged to the A340-600. Costs and revenues per trip would drop. CASM and RASM would rise. Would it be more or less profitab
41 Kaitak744 : You fail to realize that if you have a 747 sized aircraft and lower the costs, profits go up. Hence, moving from a 747-400 to an 8% more efficient 74
42 Zvezda : Not if the revenues drop more. The B747-8 has both lower trip costs and lower CASM than the B747-400 so, if the purchase price were zero, then it wou
43 Post contains images SparkingWave : Come on Airbus! Get those A380s built and delivered! We're all waiting with baited breath. It's so surreal to imagine that the A380s now will come out
44 Xbusman : Things are never what they seem in Thailand. To try and guess their reasoning and motivations is usually futile and almost always incorrect. Thai Airw
45 Express1 : Political,whats this plane got to do with politics? ,more like economical reason than a political one. dave
46 Scorpio : Anyone here considered the possibility that this is just a simple reporting mistake or a translation error? After all, this is the *only* report anywh
47 Christao17 : A few comments: That's a pretty over-simplified analysis of politics in Thailand. I'd agree with Xbusman in reply 45 that if this information appeared
48 Post contains links Zvezda : http://www.google.com/search?q=shrim...ourceid=mozilla2&ie=utf-8&oe=utf-8
49 PlaneHunter : So which specific article are you actually referring to? PH
50 Zvezda : Many, if not most, of them.
51 PlaneHunter : And where exactly is the very specific article that clearly refers to the possible TG cancelation, while also including a source? PH
52 Leskova : " target=_blank>http://www.google.com/search?q=shrim...utf-8 Maybe you should provide a link to something not referring to that old "buy A380s or face
53 Post contains images PlaneHunter : PH
54 Jfk777 : Thai operating A340-500 or -600 to LAX & JFK is brilliant. The 744 always had to stop, no nonstop bkk-lax, and the yields stink. The First and Busines
55 JAAlbert : Am I missing something? The 77-300 seats more than the 747-8? In this day and age, a nation's economic situation is all about politics.
56 Glom : Be fair there, Osiris. The European Union has been a protectionist gangster racket, that oppresses developing economies and drives up prices at home
57 Toulouse : Latest news in local Toulouse press this weekend is that AF, which they described as "usually calm and conersvative" have now got a bee in the bonet
58 Scorpio : Are you reading these articles at another level to the most of us? Because I don't see all those 'many, if not most' articles that refer to TG being
59 Leskova : Well, incidentally, the story is not true - the matter is exactly the other way around: Thailand's then prime minister clearly pointed out that no Ai
60 Jfr : Quoting Kaitak (Reply 16): For a start, Thailand is now ruled by a military junta and they would not like to send out the message that the country (or
61 Zone1 : I heard the JFK route is a money loser for TG. Sure it is a good move to open up new markets, but it doesn't guarantee success. This is a very expens
62 Khobar : When did Thai confirm their order for the A380's?
63 HB88 : " target=_blank>http://www.bangkokpost.com/breaking_...13249 Hmm. I seriously doubt the veracity of this article. No sources are given and the rest of
64 Post contains images MIAMIx707 : Apparently he has a problem with someone calling the A346 small. Priceless lol Your elementary economics lesson is nice but THAI is finally thinking
65 Khobar : Did the EU impose new tariffs in December 2004 after the then Thai PM requested that tariffs be reduced?
66 HB88 : I'm not sure I see your point. Are you seriously saying that the shadowy "authorities in Brussel" forced Thai to buy the 380? Rubbish.
67 Ikramerica : Government controlled press does not need to ever cite sources when it wants information out there. Nor should anyone reading a government controlled
68 Khobar : Are you under the impression that the issue of tariffs first came up in December 2004? Are you under the impression that the A380 deal preceded the d
69 HB88 : Because it presupposes behaviour which "the EU" isn't really capable of. The EU is incapable of agreeing on cross-border taxation and welfare, what m
70 Aerokiwi : I suspect that both Thai and Malaysian will defer their A380 orders indefinitely, as a sort of face-saving measure for both airlines and Airbus, and e
71 Ikramerica : Unless something else drastic happens, these are the only cancellations I see as in play: KE TG MH EK (15-20 frames cancelled) That's only a total of
72 Post contains links Khobar : So you're saying you think it's rubbish because you think it's rubbish. That's not much of a refutation. As for evidence, the article was published i
73 6thfreedom : A380 on phuket?? You can't be serious? Operating an A380 on a 1.5 hr sector is crazy. Furthermore, the purpose of TG operating multi services per day
74 Post contains images MCIGuy : Well, we've had two posters from Thailand say that they think the order will indeed be cancelled. I'll have to go with thier opinion. It seems folks f
75 Post contains images Christao17 : I read five A380-ready gates on the wikipedia article on Suvarnabhumi. You're saying four and someone else here said six. It's a small number regardl
76 DeltaJet757 : I have a strong feeling it's going to happen if it hasn't happened yet.
77 Post contains images 6thfreedom : Phew! You had me going there for a while.
78 Post contains images PlaneHunter : Source for that? Which are "some of those"? Why KE and why "15-20" for EK? It's fine to see different opinions, but that's still no source. Where exa
79 Post contains images Pieinthesky : Spot on.
80 ZK-NBT : Personally i wouldn't be surprised if TG defers or cancels the A380 order. The only routes they regularly need an A380 sized aircraft on are basically
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