Shamrock350 From Ireland, joined Mar 2005, 6206 posts, RR: 14 Reply 2, posted (7 years 2 months 2 weeks 1 day 23 hours ago) and read 5306 times:
They have had some problems with the A380 and old A350 was well not very good compared to the 787 as we all know.
I thought Airbus was on the up in July when the XWB was announced and then when SQ ordered 20 XWBs and 9 more 380s. Sadly the A380 being delayed again hit them hard and then rumours of the A350X being delayed as well made possible airlines (EI/BA/LF/EK/QR) doubt Airbus.
I don't think they can pull off what they did last year and it will take a long time for Airbus to build up it's confidence.
EMBQA From United States of America, joined Oct 2003, 9354 posts, RR: 12 Reply 4, posted (7 years 2 months 2 weeks 1 day 23 hours ago) and read 5270 times:
Well.... over 2-3/4 years they have only sold 30 A380's... none so far this year. The last significate order was in 2002 and that was for 34. The A350 program is a disaster. Market sales trends are showing that airlines do not want to 'superjumbo'. Boeing never went on with their design.. Airbus did. The next year or so will show who is right.
"It's not the size of the dog in the fight, but the size of the fight in the dog"
Bringiton From United States of America, joined Sep 2006, 866 posts, RR: 0 Reply 6, posted (7 years 2 months 2 weeks 1 day 23 hours ago) and read 5231 times:
I think that the CEO's assessment should be fairly accurate as i doubt anyone know the real deal over here at a.net better or at least as much as him. having said that he might have exaggerated it a little to get concessions from board members and politicians ": better act now or we are toast " etc . I think that with the A380 in trouble they have to squeeze money and resources to the A350 if they want to stay competitive in the widebody market . The 350XWB is all ready some 4 years behind the Dreamliner ( granted that its the -9 variant ) but if they try to extend the time line further they might just miss the boat as they say ! Boeing all ready has something close to 30 airlines lined up for the Dreamliner , a delayed A350 could mean trouble for the chances of Airbus to compete specially when boeing can take their time to CUT SAFETY MARGINS of the basic 787 and Croat improved efficiencies for the -10 in the basic design and components . Meanwhile , while they swallow the losses and plan ahead with the A350 , they cannot loose focus on the A320 replacement which will be the biggest strategic asset for them in this business!
Steph001 From Germany, joined Oct 2003, 315 posts, RR: 1 Reply 8, posted (7 years 2 months 2 weeks 1 day 23 hours ago) and read 5205 times:
I guess it's very difficult to give an exact answer to your question, due to the fact that predicting future is not at all easy and that very few, if any, people on this forum have enough information about both Boeing and Airbus to make a very precise statement. I'll try to sum up some information running on various media and on this forum to make a guess:
in the medium haul market (A320 series vs. B737 NG) Airbus and Boeing are quite even, nevertheless this market is not the real cash cow for A or B
in the long haul market, the B777 proves to be more accepted by airlines then the A340 and the A330 is also more accepted by airliens than the B767. Both companies have developed a new product for the segment, Boeing the B787 and Airbus the A350. Boeing is definitely more advanced with the 787 than Airbus with the A350 having orders for a significant amount of planes, if things run as planned by Boeing the B787 will be earlier on the market than the A350(XWB or whatever).
in the long haul market for very large aircraft Airbus seemed to be the favorite till the problems with the A380 occured. The redesign of the B747 sold some frames in the freighter version and will probably sell also some frames in the passenger version if the delays with the A380 aren't sorted out.
The whole problem in making a decent prediction is that Boeing is as dependent on the B787 project as Airbus is on the A380 project and on the A350 project. The problems with the A380 seem quite big right now, but media and people have always a (natural) tendency of overreacting to negative news. If things stay the way they are now (the B787 project running as planned and several delays on the A380 project to come), then Boeing is the winner in the medium run and Airbus will have to invest a lot of money to build up a new competitive long haul product. If some unpredicted problems turn out with the B787, then I would guess that both competitors are even. If the problems with the A380 are sorted out, then A is still lagging, but has a product in a market where B has nothing to offer and such a product could be in the long run a cash cow for A, allowing them to reduce the lag vs. B.
Also, thank you for a very balanced and objective post. Well done.
Both manufacturers are successful aircraft producers. Both have some extraordinary products. Both are charting new ground.
Stepping out over the edge is never easy. I believe Airbus will recover and Boeing will work hard to learn from its competitor's challenges.
I think it is good for commercial aviation - and for us as enthusiasts - to have two manufacturers producing a variety of airplanes. I for one wish we still had Fokker, McDonnell-Douglas, Lockheed, etc., producing new aircraft. Variety is the spice of life and these manufacturers launched some colorful birds that differentiated our hobby nicely.
Airbus is a, relatively speaking, very young company. They have stumbled and stumbled badly. But that is a fact of life - the road to success is never smooth the entire journey. Airbus will rebound. Boeing knows that the B787 Dreamliner is an ambitious project, and, that if planning and execution isn't picture perfect it too could end up with some very unwelcome issues to work through.
As a fan of commercial aviation I am rooting for both A & B product lines to be full of successful & interesting choices that we, as passionate onlookers, can enjoy discussing and flying for years.
MPDPilot From United States of America, joined Jul 2006, 977 posts, RR: 0 Reply 11, posted (7 years 2 months 2 weeks 1 day 13 hours ago) and read 4955 times:
so what are we considering winning and loosing on here. is it orders, profit, press. I am not to sure that one company is really winning or loosing both companies have their areas to improve and as much as I love boeing a fair amount of their success is based on an unbuilt airplane. one might say that boeing is more likely to deliver ontime than airbus but the A380 is a great example of things just not going as planned. I would have to say that Boeing is having better PR than Airbus currently but I don't think there is any winner or looser here.
One mile of highway gets you one mile, one mile of runway gets you anywhere.
Manni From South Korea, joined Nov 2001, 4221 posts, RR: 23 Reply 12, posted (7 years 2 months 2 weeks 1 day 13 hours ago) and read 4952 times:
Quoting EMBQA (Reply 4): Well.... over 2-3/4 years they have only sold 30 A380's... none so far this year.
The A380 hasn't been selling like the A320, but let's stick to the facts and not paint the picture worse than it looks in reality.
Let's go back 2 years. Since October 2004 Thai, Korean, Etihad, UPS, China Southern and Kingfisher signed for the A380. That makes 35 A380's.
Now if we go back to june 2003 (as you mentioned a timeframe over 2-3/4 years), 3 years and 4 months ago, there was an order for 21 from EK. QR and MH also firmed up their contracts in your chosen timeframe, add 8.
If you like to stick to the facts, you might want to change that into 'Well... over 2-3/4 years they have 'only' sold 64 A380's, none so far this year.
That's debatable. It's fairly obvious that they fudged the numbers and applied some sales that were not finalized until 2006 into the 2005 sales totals (the Chinese A320 orders) to make it APPEAR they beat Boeing last year. That is when their facade began to unravel.
Quoting Shamrock350 (Reply 2): I thought Airbus was on the up in July when the XWB was announced and then when SQ ordered 20 XWBs and 9 more 380s
There's a decent chace that the A350XWB will NEVER be built. They need a serious cash infusion in order to pull this off, not to mention they don't have the engineering staff to do it even if they had the money.
Quoting Steph001 (Reply 8): in the long haul market, the B777 proves to be more accepted by airlines then the A340 and the A330 is also more accepted by airliens than the B767
The A330 only competes with the 767-400. Mostly it competes with the 777-200. When you combine 767-400 & 777-200 sales with both A330 models as it should be it's hard to support your statement that it's 'more accepted'.
In the end Airbus has been very arrogant and has taken advantage of it's PAST abilities to finance on the cheap. Going forward the company will have to operate like any other public corporation and be accountable for it's product, planning, profitablily and ACCOUNTABILITY. The next five to ten years will be very humbling and challenging for them but they will be stronger in the long run.
Steph001 From Germany, joined Oct 2003, 315 posts, RR: 1 Reply 14, posted (7 years 2 months 2 weeks 1 day 13 hours ago) and read 4916 times:
Quoting Klkla (Reply 13): The A330 only competes with the 767-400. Mostly it competes with the 777-200. When you combine 767-400 & 777-200 sales with both A330 models as it should be it's hard to support your statement that it's 'more accepted'.
I was only thinking at how many B767 have been sold after the A330 entered service. Even if the A330 doesn't compete with the B767-200,-300,-200ER and -300ER directly, some airlines (not few) decided to replace ther older B767 with A330 and not with newer builds of the B767 or with B777-200's.
Cricket From India, joined Aug 2005, 2960 posts, RR: 7 Reply 15, posted (7 years 2 months 2 weeks 1 day 13 hours ago) and read 4912 times:
Airbus' problems run deep - but I would assume that they are far more serious on the engineering and manufacturing side than on the marketing side. Boeing knew it had the engineering resources to pull off a new paradigm in aircraft manufacturing, and even designed the 'snap-fit' bit of the 787 fuselage copying Airbus' practices. But Airbus has not able to pull off the snap-fit job on the A380.
Chiad From Norway, joined May 2006, 1030 posts, RR: 0 Reply 17, posted (7 years 2 months 2 weeks 1 day 12 hours ago) and read 4853 times:
Quoting Glom (Thread starter): The dire straits of Airbus of 2006 are the sequel to 2005. In 2005, they still got more orders than Boeing. If they repeat a similar thing this year, how can we really say they are in dire straits?
Airbus did NOT sell more A/C than Boeing in 2005.
Take away the orders for the redesigned A350/A350XWB, which has not been launched, and you will see.
I have a link here to though I dont know if it's 100% correct. But Boeing had more orders for sure! http://www.justplanes.com/orders.htm
But still with all the A380 trouble it's really interesting to see how the airlines stick to their orders and still dont go for the B748i.
My guess is that they analyze the B748i as obsolete compared to the A380. And I also guess that when the airlines see these A/C being in service for 20 years+ they imagine running the loosing horse for all this time would make it a bad investment.
All the orders for the B748i are still just cargo planes (probably because they cant or wont change their infrastructure) ... and perhaps 1 unidentified VIP plane.
The A380 must be an amazing plane. Cant wait for the EIS. And imagine when the first engine upgrade comes.
I think that if Airbus can just get the A380 in service they will never regret that they started on this path.
Poitin From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR: Reply 18, posted (7 years 2 months 2 weeks 1 day 11 hours ago) and read 4828 times:
The question is not how far behind Airbus is, but who is going to fix the problem. Right now Streiff is threatening to walk if he doesn't get his way. If he doesn't get what he needs to sort out Airbus, then it will continue to fall behind. If he does, I would say he would have Airbus sorted out in less than 10 years, and more like seven.
Airbus has great protential, what it needs is leadership. Perhaps it will be Streiff or someone else, I hope so, because I do not want a world of only Boeing aircraft any more than I want a world of only Airbus.
Khalyavia From Russia, joined Jun 2006, 11 posts, RR: 0 Reply 19, posted (7 years 2 months 2 weeks 1 day 11 hours ago) and read 4817 times:
Quoting Steph001 (Reply 8): I'll try to sum up some information running on various media and on this forum to make a guess:
Thanks for your sober "non-partisan" analysis, Steph. One thing, though, that I think bodes ill for A is the prospect that B's market estimates prove correct (ie, that the future market for wide-bodies is in the 250-350 range), in which case it isn't enough for A to be competitive "overall" across the product line. Even with the new A350, A seems set to cede to B the 250-300 market. If A goes on now to cancel or materially delay the A350, then A is left with 1) a "draw" vs. B in the narrow-body market, 2) a virtual monopoly in VLA vs. B (which may not be a viable market in the future) and 3) inferior products (until A350) vs. B in what very well might be "sweet spot" for the future commercial aircraft market. I think this is what Streiff is referring to when he gives the "ten years behind" speech.
Frankly, I'm shocked that they would consider dropping A350 or even delaying it further. This is the aircraft A needs yesterday.
EDDB From Germany, joined Aug 2006, 244 posts, RR: 0 Reply 21, posted (7 years 2 months 2 weeks 1 day 10 hours ago) and read 4755 times:
Worst case 4-5 years behind, cause that's what the 787 program is ahead, and I really can't see where else they should be behind! A380? Still in front cause no orders yet for 748i. A320? No comment needed! A330/340? History once A350 launched!
Best case? Unless Boeing is not experiencing problems with the 787, I don't see a chance to catch up... Though I think their strategy to attack both 787 AND 777 could make up for this! Time will tell...
Bringiton From United States of America, joined Sep 2006, 866 posts, RR: 0 Reply 22, posted (7 years 2 months 2 weeks 1 day 10 hours ago) and read 4753 times:
Personally I am quite surprised to see the A32- orders and those of the 737NG! Is this because of the runaway sucess of the 787 and a strong 777 in the last 2 years which has enabled boeing to do so well with this aircraft ?
Shamrock350 From Ireland, joined Mar 2005, 6206 posts, RR: 14 Reply 23, posted (7 years 2 months 2 weeks 1 day 9 hours ago) and read 4748 times:
I don't think the A350XWB will be dropped. If it is dropped or even delayed Airbus must be in more trouble than we all first thought. The A350XWB is the aircraft that can save Airbus, just think of how many airlines would want an aircraft like this. The problems with the A350 is that it's late and this is mainly due to the old A350/A330E not attracting enough "big" airlines and being forced into a redesign.
Hopefully Airbus can sort out the A380 and start to put their full attention and focus on the XWB.
Bringiton From United States of America, joined Sep 2006, 866 posts, RR: 0 Reply 24, posted (7 years 2 months 2 weeks 1 day 9 hours ago) and read 4713 times:
Although I agree with you Shamrock but I personally believe that atleast the A350-10 is a bit ahead of its time and might well face stiff challenge relativly shortly after its EIS from the Y3 ( if its ever launched , but airbus has to consider both scenarios) , however the -9 should do the best out of them all IMO unless boeing does some wonders with the 787-10 .
25 EMBQA: My facts can directly off the Airbus website...go to the historical web page and read yourself.
26 Manni: The information I provided is correct and does not match the information you provided. I took you to the letter, you've given yourself a huge margin
27 Stitch: Boeing was leading the sales charts prior to their production snafus in 1997, yet in 1999 they only sold a bit more then half the planes they did in
28 OldAeroGuy: But Airbus needs to sell 40-50 per year just to match their planned production rate and to hope to have a chance for program profitability. Unless th
29 BoomBoom: Is that because the 737 is outselling it this year?
30 PlaneHunter: What a lame comment - we have also seen times when the A320 outsold the B737. Fact is both models have been in a head-to-head race over years, with b
31 11Bravo: How about never? I will be very surprised to see Airbus produce all the A380s that are on the order-books now. By the time Airbus fixes the current p
32 Mham001: Huge monolithic companies can make many blunders before they begin to tilt the ship, unlike a small company where every decision can make or break. T
33 EDDB: Au contraire! It was the customers, mainly EK and LH, who complained that the 787 might be a bit to small for their expansion plans, so Airbus IS act
34 Stitch: I see at least five reasons for the A350XWB: Replace the A340 family, which is losing sales traction to the 777. Shore-up the A333 market and extend
35 474218: Airbus has announced when they get to full production in 2010 they will produce 45 A380's a year. If they only sell 35 in two years they are in real
36 Sonic67: I guess timing is every thing in the case of when Boeing launching the 787. Airbus will probably try to do the same in the next few years.
37 BoomBoom: Udo, perhaps you should address you lame comment to EDDB who seems to think the 737NG is not competitive with the A320.
38 BoomBoom: EK and LH are not the whole market. Look at the 787 order book!
39 PlaneHunter: When did he suggest that? Here's what he wrote: Not being behind doesn't necessarily mean being ahead - hasn't there been a head-to-head race between
40 Mham001: Airbus and Boeing analysis both indicate the sweet spot in the market is right where Boeing has landed. A lot of those specs Airbus presented for its
41 Lumberton: That is the conventional wisdom on EK (and QR?), but in sizing the A350-800XWB as they did, are they neglecting the A300/A310/767 replacement market?
42 Thebry: I disagree with this. A peek at this year's order book flies in the face of your comment. The unfortunate fact remains -- Boeing has licked Airbus in
43 EDDB: @PlaneHunter Thanks for jumping in! Some people will always interpret the 'old europe' posts the way they want to and not the way they're actually mea
44 Manni: The self appointed 'Airbus acountants' of Airliners.net have indeed calculated that number. Looks like you've been fooled. For an aircraft that costs
45 Keesje: Boeing's forecast for 2006 is 395 aircraft, Airbus 430. Thnx
46 Elvis777: Keesje, From your last post I gather that you think that eads is NOT behind and indeed it is ahead of boeing? Ok., maybe you are right. Although I do
47 Kaitak744: What does that have to do with ANYTHING? As many people here have noted, aircraft projections are never correct. The fact is, this year and last year
48 EMBQA: Go on to the Airbus web site. Look for Orders and Deliverys... look for Historical Orders and Deliverys. You'll need Excle to view it. Orders for the
49 Manni: Really??? The numbers you provided in reply 48 do not match what you said in reply 4. They also do not match with the actual orders placed last year.
50 Beaucaire: Quote from this morning's Streiff' interview with "le Figaro" "Q:Vous avez déclaré que le constructeur européen avait quinze ans de retard sur Boei
51 Keesje: Elvis it is the same as with the A350 xwb cancelation. People hear what they want to hear, stop thinking & start repeating. Which sober person did re
52 Stitch: I don't see a "Historical Orders and Deliveries" area, just "this month's Orders and Deliveries" which links to an Excel spreadsheet. However, that s
53 Beaucaire: This afternoon Gallois made a strong statement for the official launch of the A350 during his first "official" vist to Airbus-Workers in Toulouse. Onl
54 Ken777: From what I recall the 748 VIP outsold the 320 during September in DOLLAR terms. I'm not sure that the 380 will have a VLA monopoly. The 748i is a re
55 Elvis777: Keesje, My question was in reference to Where you were trying to say that eads was NOT behind boeing... That is to say that b/ eads expected to delive
56 EMBQA: I can't get it to give a link. Go onto the main Order and Delivery page. Look for Key Documents...at the bottom is a link that says O&D 1974-2005...
57 Stitch: Found it. Thanks! That makes 20 of 28 recorded in 2005, so looks like IT and EY have yet to sign their orders, which could mean 8 orders logged in 20