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EK Sends In Auditors To Assess New A380 Schedule  
User currently offlineLeelaw From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Posted (8 years 2 months 1 week 1 day 5 hours ago) and read 11520 times:

Flight International, 17 October 2006, by Nicholas Ionides:

Biggest Airline Customer Wants To find Out If Airbus's Revised Timetable Is Realistic

...Emirates Airline president Time Clark told Flight International: "We really need to see how much credibility there is with regards to the new delivery timings." He adds: "We have a team going there to audit their [production processes] in the middle of next month."

Clark says the team of four or five Emirates representatives will be "mainly from the engineering side of the airline." While acknowledging that they are not experts in airframe manufacturing, he says it is hoped they will be able to determine whether Airbus's new delivery schedules are achievable...


Trust But Verify  Smile

80 replies: All unread, showing first 25:
 
User currently offlineSingapore_Air From United Kingdom, joined Nov 2000, 13745 posts, RR: 19
Reply 1, posted (8 years 2 months 1 week 1 day 5 hours ago) and read 11485 times:

Charming (!).

Airbus has no choice but to acceed to this unorthodox intrusion. However, these are certainly unorthodox times at the manufacturer.

I wonder if he's kind enough to let us know the findings.



Anyone can fly, only the best Soar.
User currently offlineNAV20 From Australia, joined Nov 2003, 9909 posts, RR: 35
Reply 2, posted (8 years 2 months 1 week 1 day 4 hours ago) and read 11283 times:

This could be a VERY important development............


"Once you have flown, you will walk the earth with your eyes turned skywards.." - Leonardo da Vinci
User currently onlineStitch From United States of America, joined Jul 2005, 31417 posts, RR: 85
Reply 3, posted (8 years 2 months 1 week 1 day 4 hours ago) and read 11270 times:
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Not sure what EK's "auditors" will be able to find out, but looks like Clark is keeping the heat on.

User currently offlineNAV20 From Australia, joined Nov 2003, 9909 posts, RR: 35
Reply 4, posted (8 years 2 months 1 week 1 day 4 hours ago) and read 11245 times:

Stitch, on Airbus/EADS' recent form, I think we all of us pretty well know already what the auditors are likely to find.


"Once you have flown, you will walk the earth with your eyes turned skywards.." - Leonardo da Vinci
User currently offlineGeorgiaAME From United States of America, joined Aug 2005, 1000 posts, RR: 6
Reply 5, posted (8 years 2 months 1 week 1 day 4 hours ago) and read 11233 times:

Do I hear the fat lady clearing her throat?


"Trust, but verify!" An old Russian proverb, quoted often by a modern American hero
User currently offlineLumberton From United States of America, joined Jul 2005, 4708 posts, RR: 20
Reply 6, posted (8 years 2 months 1 week 1 day 4 hours ago) and read 11210 times:

Quoting GeorgiaAME (Reply 6):
Do I hear the fat lady clearing her throat?

More like Clark covering his uh...position.



"When all is said and done, more will be said than done".
User currently offlineRevelation From United States of America, joined Feb 2005, 12961 posts, RR: 25
Reply 7, posted (8 years 2 months 1 week 1 day 3 hours ago) and read 11190 times:

It's hard to know what is going on inside Airbus these days. Hopefully everyone is minding to their knitting, but one has to wonder if they all aren't wondering if and when they are going to be hit by the Power 8 eight ball. The audit seems like a very prudent thing to do.


Inspiration, move me brightly!
User currently offlineScouseflyer From United Kingdom, joined Apr 2006, 3402 posts, RR: 9
Reply 8, posted (8 years 2 months 1 week 1 day 3 hours ago) and read 11078 times:

Quoting Revelation (Reply 8):
It's hard to know what is going on inside Airbus these days. Hopefully everyone is minding to their knitting, but one has to wonder if they all aren't wondering if and when they are going to be hit by the Power 8 eight ball. The audit seems like a very prudent thing to do.

I would bet a large amount of money that this latest delay is the absolute maximum that they think could happen with probably a 100% margin of error built in as they know they can't possibly have any more cock-ups!


User currently offlineNAV20 From Australia, joined Nov 2003, 9909 posts, RR: 35
Reply 9, posted (8 years 2 months 1 week 1 day 3 hours ago) and read 11048 times:

Quoting Scouseflyer (Reply 9):
the absolute maximum that they think could happen

Or the absolute minimum that they felt they HAD to admit to, Scouseflyer.

Worth remembering that the A380 problems haven't been SOLVED yet. Therefore all anyone can do is ESTIMATE how long they will take to fix, and how long it will then take to work up to full production.



"Once you have flown, you will walk the earth with your eyes turned skywards.." - Leonardo da Vinci
User currently offlineLightsaber From United States of America, joined Jan 2005, 13532 posts, RR: 100
Reply 10, posted (8 years 2 months 1 week 1 day 3 hours ago) and read 11048 times:
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Quoting Stitch (Reply 4):
Not sure what EK's "auditors" will be able to find out, but looks like Clark is keeping the heat on.

If EK doesn't have engineers who understand manufacturing schedule planning, they certainly could go out and hire a few dozen.

This puts Airbus on notice and forces them to present the detailed schedule. If you've ever seen an aircraft build schedule, its quite detailed. Good ones are broken down to single shift detail (usually multiple technicians per sub-task).

So the engineers will tour the line and compare the promise to the schedule. They'll start asking lots of questions: "You ripped out that part for access, why isn't there any time budgeted to put it back in properly?"

If EK is smart, they'll keep on the pressure until they have an earlier delivery slot.

Lightsaber



Societies that achieve a critical mass of ideas achieve self sustaining growth; others stagnate.
User currently offlineKen777 From United States of America, joined Mar 2004, 8478 posts, RR: 9
Reply 11, posted (8 years 2 months 1 week 1 day 2 hours ago) and read 10979 times:

Airbus appears to be a bit lax is communicating with their customers - we seem to get a lot of information from leaks and/or rumors before the airlines are told. The EK audit is one way to improve that communication level to the point where they are aware of developing problems as the leaks are being composed.

Quoting Singapore_Air (Reply 1):
Airbus has no choice but to acceed to this unorthodox intrusion.

I have a feeling that it may be very common in the future regarding the 380 program - especially for the larger customers.


User currently offlineLumberton From United States of America, joined Jul 2005, 4708 posts, RR: 20
Reply 12, posted (8 years 2 months 1 week 1 day 2 hours ago) and read 10957 times:

Quoting Ken777 (Reply 12):
Airbus appears to be a bit lax is communicating with their customers - we seem to get a lot of information from leaks and/or rumors before the airlines are told. The EK audit is one way to improve that communication

Above all else, EK has stopped accepting information from Toulouse at face value. There is a serious credibility problem here for Airbus, that could (emphasize "could" not "will") carry over into the long awaited mid body order.



"When all is said and done, more will be said than done".
User currently offlineJustloveplanes From United States of America, joined Jul 2004, 1065 posts, RR: 1
Reply 13, posted (8 years 2 months 1 week 1 day 2 hours ago) and read 10925 times:

Quoting Scouseflyer (Reply 9):
I would bet a large amount of money that this latest delay is the absolute maximum that they think could happen with probably a 100% margin of error built in as they know they can't possibly have any more cock-ups!

 checkmark   checkmark 

I think this is most likely as well. A new harness design from scratch using an integrated CAD system is what I would guess they have scheduled - no shortcuts planned and my guess is none will be taken. That means it won't be late, but probably won't be too much early either. A seems to have dodged the main bullets if they keep their schedule, so I think they will take no risks in getting there.

JLP


User currently offlineLeelaw From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 14, posted (8 years 2 months 1 week 1 day 1 hour ago) and read 10745 times:

The full text of the FI article quoted in the threadstarter is now available online:

http://www.flightglobal.com/Articles...n+auditors+to+assess+new+A380.html

[Edited 2006-10-16 18:19:21]

User currently offlinePoitin From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 15, posted (8 years 2 months 1 week 1 day ago) and read 10701 times:

Quoting Lumberton (Reply 13):
Quoting Ken777 (Reply 12):
Airbus appears to be a bit lax is communicating with their customers - we seem to get a lot of information from leaks and/or rumors before the airlines are told. The EK audit is one way to improve that communication

Above all else, EK has stopped accepting information from Toulouse at face value. There is a serious credibility problem here for Airbus, that could (emphasize "could" not "will") carry over into the long awaited mid body order.

The issue I see is not that there was a total cockup, but what are they (Airbus/EADS) doing to fix the problems? What has happened is water under the bridge, but what will happen is controllable.

"Definitely no decisions have been made."

It not very encouraging.  no 


User currently offlineZvezda From Lithuania, joined Aug 2004, 10511 posts, RR: 64
Reply 16, posted (8 years 2 months 1 week 1 day ago) and read 10663 times:

I expect one of the first things they will want to see is a demonstration of the interoperability (or lack thereof) of CATIA v4 and v5. The big decision Airbus need to make is whether or not to upgrade all the designers to v5.

User currently onlineStitch From United States of America, joined Jul 2005, 31417 posts, RR: 85
Reply 17, posted (8 years 2 months 1 week 1 day ago) and read 10611 times:
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Quoting Lightsaber (Reply 11):
If EK is smart, they'll keep on the pressure until they have an earlier delivery slot.

How early can they get? They're already third in line after SQ and QF. EY has four birds already built and flying, but as I understand it they all need significant re-work which is why EY will be later then QF and EK's new builds.


User currently offlinePlanesNTrains From United States of America, joined Feb 2005, 5793 posts, RR: 28
Reply 18, posted (8 years 2 months 1 week 1 day ago) and read 10584 times:

Quoting Scouseflyer (Reply 9):
I would bet a large amount of money that this latest delay is the absolute maximum that they think could happen with probably a 100% margin of error built in as they know they can't possibly have any more cock-ups!



Quoting NAV20 (Reply 10):
Or the absolute minimum that they felt they HAD to admit to, Scouseflyer.

Worth remembering that the A380 problems haven't been SOLVED yet. Therefore all anyone can do is ESTIMATE how long they will take to fix, and how long it will then take to work up to full production.

My gut tells me that they have absolutely no desire to face another delay. It would be insane, and I can't imagine anyone in an organization as large and professional as Airbus purposefully misleading again and again and again.

Having said that, my brain knows that if they can keep stringing their customers along, it will make it impossible for them to have a replacement order made, as they weren't expecting to need it. It allows Airbus to maintain the orders (at a price), perhaps hawk a few A330/340's as interim lift, and still cause pain to Boeing and the 748I.

I'm going with my gut, though.

-Dave



Next Trip: SEA-ABQ-SEA on Alaska
User currently offlinePoitin From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 19, posted (8 years 2 months 1 week 1 day ago) and read 10537 times:

Quoting Zvezda (Reply 17):
I expect one of the first things they will want to see is a demonstration of the interoperability (or lack thereof) of CATIA v4 and v5. The big decision Airbus need to make is whether or not to upgrade all the designers to v5.

As I understand it, the ACE conversion tool does not work, so they have to use one version of CATIA or the other. The "obvious" choice would be to give CATIA V5 to the Hamburg A380 designers. Unfortunately, from what has been said in previous threads. CATIA V5 is very much a different animal than V4, and requires quite a bit of training to use, even if you are using V4, because instead of using wireframe, it uses volumes.

That means months of delay before they can even start to document the wiring, and possibly months of delay as they design each of the various configurations.

A far quicker solution would be to move the entire A380 to Toulouse and onto V5 -- a suggestion that got at least one CEO fired.


User currently offlineZvezda From Lithuania, joined Aug 2004, 10511 posts, RR: 64
Reply 20, posted (8 years 2 months 1 week 23 hours ago) and read 10418 times:

Quoting Poitin (Reply 20):
As I understand it, the ACE conversion tool does not work, so they have to use one version of CATIA or the other. The "obvious" choice would be to give CATIA V5 to the Hamburg A380 designers. Unfortunately, from what has been said in previous threads. CATIA V5 is very much a different animal than V4, and requires quite a bit of training to use, even if you are using V4, because instead of using wireframe, it uses volumes.

That means months of delay before they can even start to document the wiring, and possibly months of delay as they design each of the various configurations.

A far quicker solution would be to move the entire A380 to Toulouse and onto V5 -- a suggestion that got at least one CEO fired.

If the decision were mine, based on the information available to me (which is not complete), I would upgrade everyone to CATIA v5. The advantages are:
- it ensures these CATIA incompatibility problems do not afflict future programs such as the A350
- the cost in time and money are reasonably predictable
- the delay to the WhaleJet program becomes more predictable
- it would facilitate certification of the WhaleJet
- it doesn't stir up labour unrest, and
- it would give a bit of confidence to the customers.


User currently offlineTeamAmerica From United States of America, joined Sep 2006, 1761 posts, RR: 23
Reply 21, posted (8 years 2 months 1 week 23 hours ago) and read 10380 times:

Quoting Singapore_Air (Reply 1):
I wonder if he's kind enough to let us know the findings.

Kindness will have nothing to do with it. If nothing is said, EK must be satisfied with the audit. If not satisfied, it will be made apparent by their actions.

Quoting Poitin (Reply 20):
A far quicker solution would be to move the entire A380 to Toulouse and onto V5 -- a suggestion that got at least one CEO fired.

In a perfect world, maybe. In the real world, political forces will prevent this from happening quickly, if at all.



Failure is not an option; it's an outcome.
User currently offlinePoitin From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 22, posted (8 years 2 months 1 week 23 hours ago) and read 10337 times:

Quoting Zvezda (Reply 21):
If the decision were mine, based on the information available to me (which is not complete), I would upgrade everyone to CATIA v5.

I would leave V4 in place for the current aircraft that are in production, but go to V5 for the A380 and the A350. It is a known risk and cost. I agree with all of your points.

However, have they decided ANYTHING? I know Streiff told them to go to V5, but with him gone, who is there to enforce it?

"Definitely no decisions have been made."


User currently offlineAndesSMF From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 23, posted (8 years 2 months 1 week 23 hours ago) and read 10297 times:

Quoting Zvezda (Reply 17):
I expect one of the first things they will want to see is a demonstration of the interoperability (or lack thereof) of CATIA v4 and v5. The big decision Airbus need to make is whether or not to upgrade all the designers to v5.

But wouldnt a software changeover and the additional training required also take more time? It might still be worth it for them.

Quoting TeamAmerica (Reply 22):
If nothing is said, EK must be satisfied with the audit.

If you spent untold billions in a new airplane, IMHO, you have the right to demand whatever you want from Airbus. In this case, it makes sense that EK wants their own people to tell them what they are facing. It is good planning, just to see where they need to be on their fleet planning.


User currently offlinePoitin From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 24, posted (8 years 2 months 1 week 23 hours ago) and read 10201 times:

Quoting AndesSMF (Reply 24):
I expect one of the first things they will want to see is a demonstration of the interoperability (or lack thereof) of CATIA v4 and v5. The big decision Airbus need to make is whether or not to upgrade all the designers to v5.

But wouldnt a software changeover and the additional training required also take more time? It might still be worth it for them.

Had they done this two years ago, we would be flying around in A380's. They tried for the cheap quick fix -- a conversion program -- and got bit by reality.

IBM could have a training staff in Hamburg tomorrow, and have everyone needing training trained according to a KNOWN schedule. What is the current schedule for the A380 -- "Definitely no decisions have been made."


25 Wahoo : The more and more I read about this the more I think Airbus should consider splitting itself into separate companies. Maybe a third player in the mark
26 Zvezda : Conversion to v5 would take a relatively predictable time rather than an unpredictable time to complete a working design using incompatible software.
27 Kanebear : Such conversions are dangerous. You can set timelines for training, etc but you'll always have unknowns and problems that crop up. Some can be fatal.
28 Sphealey : > Airbus has no choice but to acceed to > this unorthodox intrusion. I take it you don't work for a company that supplies automotive, aerospace, or la
29 Poitin : Unfortunately, you missed the issue -- Toulouse used V5 and Hamburg used V4. It would mean redoing everything Toulouse did in V5 because it can't be
30 Post contains images Osiris30 : No I think it was the sum of the assessments handed in by a bunch of folks trying to save their jobs. I think the reality may be worse yet and furthe
31 PlanesNTrains : All three rings. It has been an unfortunate and embarrassing saga for Airbus to be sure. I think Airbus is past the denial phase, though, which elimi
32 Poitin : The grapevine is shaking with rumors of all sorts, some of which I've heard. However, as they are rumors, I will ignore them. Still, there is a defin
33 Post contains images Airfoilsguy : Maybe Airbus should rename the A380 to the Tucker.
34 Jacobin777 : According to Flightinternational.com, SQ has a team there at TLS already for the past few months and do believe that so far, the only problem is the s
35 DAYflyer : Interesting indeed. Nothing quite so uncomfortable as a major customer (or the IRS) looking up your backside with a microscope.
36 TeamAmerica : Not sure what you're responding to. I was saying that we may not be privy to the results of EK's audit, but we don't need to be. If nothing more is s
37 Osiris30 : See I just can't believe that. They gave us the 'worst' news at least once already. Sorry but they've totally shot my ability to trust anything that
38 Post contains images Dvautier : I think that the biggest problem facing Airbus right now is stabilizing and documenting their assembly process. Every single step in the assembly of a
39 Osiris30 : Care to share the rumors? (with appropriate caveats ofcourse). I'd be curious since I've heard little to nothing lately... (although I've been admite
40 Baron95 : Are you proposing that all the A380 parts designed in CATIA v4 be redone mannualy in CATIA v5 - to me that would be a HUGE engineering effort.
41 Zvezda : I meant the wiring. Please accept my apologies for not being more clear. I also meant that new projects e.g. A350 should be done entirely in CATIA v5
42 ClassicLover : Yes... and... Yes. What I find interesting is that these airlines hadn't placed permanent staff to liaise with the manufacturer. I know that back in
43 Atmx2000 : Which plant would you send them to?
44 Poitin : Part of the problem is the front and rear sections of the airframe where done in Hamburg on V4, so the wiring fits those sections, but not those desi
45 Post contains images Lightsaber : How early? Not ahead of SQ and QF, but by placing enough pressure, EK can ensure that staff that would be utilized getting EY's birds converted are i
46 Post contains images TeamAmerica : Well, there's my dream job; to get paid to watch people build and test airplanes. I'd be a total workaholic and do it for way less than a million. Ju
47 Post contains links Revelation : One should consider some recent a.net postings: RE: A380 Debacle: It's The Software, Stupid! (by Dvautier Oct 3 2006 in Civil Aviation)?searchid=3021
48 Singapore_Air : Also from the article:
49 Leelaw : SQ has been repeating this mantra since the second major program program delay was announced this past June. If there aren't any "technical" problems
50 Bobski : I'm not sure its something they will need to audit. The compatibility issues between CATIA v4 and v5 are well documented and Airbus (so I've heard) w
51 Revelation : Not an unreasonable set of reasons, but from Streiff's Power8 speech (which I poorly quoted above): The way I read this, it seems not enough people w
52 Poitin : You are both missing the point -- it is not JUST the wire -- the airframes are a problem, one that was "fixed" with a grinder. Now they have to docum
53 NAV20 : Thanks for confirming that, Poitin. I heard that too, some time ago. But I didn't put it on here; firstly because I couldn't find a source, and secon
54 Poitin : I am not confirming that they have a problem, only pointing out that they may have a problem. However, I did see the Discovery Channel show, and watc
55 474218 : I take it you have never worked on an aircraft production line. All airline customers have inspectors and engineers assigned to the plant, the manufa
56 Post contains images Lightsaber : I never said just the wire. I've been present at "handcrafted" airframe joining... its painfully expensive. Both in the handcrafting and in getting t
57 Post contains links Leelaw : Emirates Airlines Doesn't Rule Out Further A380 Delays October 27, 2006 Heathrow, ENGLAND (Dow Jones)--Emirates Airlines President Tim Clark Friday sa
58 Dougloid : Perhaps Dandy Don can tune up like he used to do on Monday Night Football when the Giants were 30 points behind in the last half of the 4th quarter a
59 NAV20 : Slightly wild idea, but there have been persistent press references to no-penalty cancellation clauses if the delay extends to more than two years. Th
60 Stitch : That EK has said they'd prefer the 773ER over the 748I for additional lift while they wait for the A388 makes me believe they will wait. I believe EK
61 Shenzhen : Airlines still send representatives to oversee final assembly. However, the Emirates A380 won't be assembled for some time, therefore there wouldn't
62 Post contains links Leelaw : Actually, the airframe for MSN011 (perhaps sans engines), the first production aircraft for EK, has been fully assembled for some time. Additionally,
63 Justloveplanes : If you owe the bank(EK) $1000 and can't pay, you're in trouble. If you owe the bank(EK) $100,000,000 and can't pay, the bank's in trouble......
64 474218 : If MSN011 is fully assembled (sans engines) why is it going to take another two to three years for it to be delivered? Isn't it one of those airframe
65 Post contains images Leelaw : Sorry for the semantics, Airbus (and/or FI) has referred to the status of MSN011 as "assembled, pre-equipping." Certainly, MSN002 & MSN007 have had t
66 Post contains images WingedMigrator : Well, Leelaw, I would be tempted to say that it's because the problems are, as they say, production, not technical.
67 NAV20 : To me, the statement is meaningless anyway. Someone please tell me what sort of production problems don't entail technicalities, or alternatively wha
68 Post contains images Leelaw : OK, what sort of "non-technical" production problem(s) will require approximately 24 more months of "production" from today for Airbus to deliver MSN
69 Post contains links and images Leelaw : Mr. Aboulafia has some interesting thoughts about comments made by Mr. Clark yesterday: ...Richard Aboulafia, vice president of analysis for the Teal
70 Post contains links Eisman : Today's Wall Street Journal has more emphasis on the A340 cancellation. Fair use: http://online.wsj.com/article/SB1161...406594.html?mod=todays_us_pag
71 WingedMigrator : A total loss of configuration control might be part of the explanation. It appears they were overwhelmed by the amount of change that took place as t
72 Stitch : Not to mention you don't want to begin construction on new frames knowing that they, too, will not mate properly at final assembly. So Airbus won't s
73 Leelaw : What prompted such "overwhelming" change in design that control over configuration was totally lost?
74 Dvautier : I think that a team sent by Emirtes was a wise decision and they can learn a lot even though MSN011 is not ready, or even wired up. Those guys can sno
75 Post contains links WingedMigrator : Building the birds before design was sufficiently mature, and allowing lots of different sub-configurations for various customers. Even a supposedly
76 Post contains links Leelaw : ... Airbus insiders speaking to ATWOnline suggest that another delay of up to three months is possible. Emirates President Tim Clark also is concerned
77 Osiris30 : Is the 3 months in addition to the freed up slots care of VS's delay? So really a 6 month delay is VS hadn't deffered? Wow!
78 Stitch : Depends on what frames are delayed. From the frame assignments I have seen, VS was no earlier then 45th.
79 Leelaw : According to the production data in Mr. Sperl's (Airbus CFO) recent break-even analysis the 45th A380 won't be delivered until early in 2010.
80 Post contains links Leelaw : ...Emirates has put together its own top level team of engineering troubleshooters to study manufacturing delays at the A380 assembly plant at Toulou
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