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Break-even Outlook For A380 Now At 420 Aircraft  
User currently offlineLeelaw From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Posted (9 years 7 months 2 weeks 1 day 17 hours ago) and read 24637 times:

LONDON (Dow Jones)--Airbus now needs to sell around 420 A380 aircraft to break even on the delayed program, according to a presentation given at an investor meeting of parent company, European Aeronautic Defence & Space Co. NV Thursday.

The break-even outlook is updated for 2006 and updates the 2005 business case, which was based on 270 A380 orders, according to a presentation by Airbus Chief Financial Officer Andreas Sperl.


313 replies: All unread, showing first 25:
User currently offlineKappel From Suriname, joined Jul 2005, 3533 posts, RR: 16
Reply 1, posted (9 years 7 months 2 weeks 1 day 17 hours ago) and read 24549 times:

Wow, less than I expected. So if the forecasts hold true, it might still be possible for the project to break even. Not really what they might have hoped, but who knows. They may yet sell 500 of them. It's a shame really. The airlines seem to be very pleased with the test results, as execs have mentioned a couple of times. Who knows how many orders Airbus has missed because of these delays??

User currently offlineSebolino From France, joined May 2001, 3740 posts, RR: 4
Reply 2, posted (9 years 7 months 2 weeks 1 day 17 hours ago) and read 24553 times:

Actually, this a rather good news.
420 A380 sold is really possible in the next 20 years, the program might even become very profitable. Time will tell ...

User currently offlineNudelhirsch From Germany, joined Oct 2003, 1438 posts, RR: 14
Reply 3, posted (9 years 7 months 2 weeks 1 day 17 hours ago) and read 24460 times:

420 is far less than the projected demand. This is indeed good stuff.

But our friend Leelaw thinks differently...

It is great news because it finally gives the ambitious a new shape.

Putana da Seatbeltz!
User currently offlineCobra27 From Slovenia, joined May 2001, 1103 posts, RR: 0
Reply 4, posted (9 years 7 months 2 weeks 1 day 17 hours ago) and read 24440 times:

It depends on the real price and discounts. I think around 1000 A380 could be made in 20 years and the plane should really made profit. Instead of 30 hops with 787 from New York to London, it would be a lot cheaper to use 10 A380 (even though 787 is more advanced).

But the air travel trends are unpredictable, the A380 is something like building new nuclear power plants. Time for both will come

User currently offlineJasond From Australia, joined Jul 2009, 23 posts, RR: 0
Reply 5, posted (9 years 7 months 2 weeks 1 day 17 hours ago) and read 24380 times:

Quoting Nudelhirsch (Reply 3):
420 is far less than the projected demand. This is indeed good stuff.

What is the projected demand incidently? By far less implies what, 2-3 times that figure or maybe more. I seriously doubt they will sell twice that many. Not good stuff, simply based on the corporate damage to the product and the ever increasing number of frames required to turn a profit. 270 from 2005 to 420 a year later is a 50% + increase in the number frames that now need to be sold. What is possibly good about it? Were you expecting worse?

User currently offlineNAV20 From Australia, joined Nov 2003, 9909 posts, RR: 35
Reply 6, posted (9 years 7 months 2 weeks 1 day 17 hours ago) and read 24355 times:

Thanks for the info., Leelaw - does the artilcle give any indication of the timescale the analysts were working on?

The reason being that in any cash flow analysis, everything depends on the length of the payback period. A short quick sales period means that revenue eventually overtakes the mounting interest burden on the initial development cost; a slow rate of sales means that accumulated interest goes on mounting more quickly than revenue can pay it off.

As to:-

Quoting Sebolino (Reply 2):
420 A380 sold is really possible in the next 20 years, the program might even become very profitable.

Maybe the analysts did indeed work on a 20-year period. But I doubt it. If I'd been doing the analysis I'd have been very conscious of the 2018 point, which is where Airbus will have to pay back EU launch aid plus accumulated interest. So that is the date I'd have worked to.

Further, it looks as if the analysis merely calculated how many A380s Airbus would HAVE to sell (presumably at full list prices) to break even by the payback point. That would be easy enough to calculate.

Whether Leahy and Co. are reporting that there are in fact ANY reasonable prospects for selling another 300 or so A380s by 2018 is another matter entirely.  

[Edited 2006-10-19 14:31:05]

"Once you have flown, you will walk the earth with your eyes turned skywards.." - Leonardo da Vinci
User currently offlineLeelaw From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 7, posted (9 years 7 months 2 weeks 1 day 16 hours ago) and read 24258 times:

Quoting NAV20 (Reply 6):
Leelaw does the artivlcle give any indication of the timescale the analysts were working on

No. However, the WSJ article reports that Mr. Sperl projects: "notional" break-even is 150 units, IRR has decreased to 13% from the 19% in the 2005 forecast, and long-term deliveries remain at 751 units. The WSJ also reports that Mr. Sperl's presentation is available on the EADS website, but I've been unable to locate it as yet.

[Edited 2006-10-19 14:26:16]

User currently offlineNYC777 From United States of America, joined Jun 2004, 5923 posts, RR: 46
Reply 8, posted (9 years 7 months 2 weeks 1 day 16 hours ago) and read 24261 times:

Ok, let's see, reduced cashflow from the A380 program, lost opportunity cost, and increase in breakeven units to be sold by 150, over a 55% increase, and addd to that the A380 has not been selling well. They are 6 year into the program.

Not good news. This does not take into account any customer cancellations nor reduced sales prospects because of the delays, competiton from the 747-8I or any further delays to the program.

That which does not kill me makes me stronger.
User currently offlineJasond From Australia, joined Jul 2009, 23 posts, RR: 0
Reply 9, posted (9 years 7 months 2 weeks 1 day 16 hours ago) and read 24258 times:

Quoting NAV20 (Reply 6):
Whether Leahy and Co. are reporting that there are in fact ANY reasonable prospects for selling another 300 or so A380s by 2018 is another matter entirely.

NAV20 - About 27 per year until that point in time you quoted. Given some large carriers have cherry picked the first of the production slots where in fact do orders come from consistently at that rate one may ask.

User currently offlineBrendows From Norway, joined Apr 2006, 1020 posts, RR: 4
Reply 10, posted (9 years 7 months 2 weeks 1 day 16 hours ago) and read 24233 times:

Thanks for the article Leelaw  wave 

Quoting Cobra27 (Reply 4):
I think around 1000 A380 could be made in 20 years

That would be 50 A380s each year that Airbus would have to produce and sell. Sorry to say this, but I doubt that will happen. In my opinion, Airbus should be quite happy if they are able to sell more than 400 frames over the next 20 years.

Quoting Cobra27 (Reply 4):
Instead of 30 hops with 787 from New York to London, it would be a lot cheaper to use 10 A380 (even though 787 is more advanced).

Would it be cheaper? First: 10 A380 @ 500 seats will carry less pax than 30 788s @ 220-250 seats.
Second: The A380 will burn more fuel per seat than the 787 will burn per seat.
Third: flying more flights, provided that they can do so, will probably be more favourable from a passenger point of view (due to a wider range of flight to chose between) -> increasing demand -> the possibility for the airline to increase its revenue.

Quoting Nudelhirsch (Reply 3):
420 is far less than the projected demand. This is indeed good stuff.

But our friend Leelaw thinks differently...

There is a reason why he, and quite a lot of others, thinks differently, and there is a very good reason to why they are doing so.

User currently offlineCoelacanth From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 11, posted (9 years 7 months 2 weeks 1 day 16 hours ago) and read 24236 times:


Hello from the Coelacanth,

For those of you who think this is a good thing , I beg to differ . The A380 is closing in on a project that is close to being 7 years old . And at this time there is still only speculation on the validity of this project ,with only 159 firm orders to date [many of which were sold well below cost & the reason airlines may be holding on to them ]. Currently , the A380 is killing Airbus not helping it . Boeing's 787 program is helping them zoom past Airbus at Mach 10 ! Can one see the difference in the trajectorys of the programs ?

One should not have to wait a generation [20 years] to learn if a project will be successful or not !

Still the question at this time is : Not when the A380 project will break even , but if !



User currently offlineCHIFLYGUY From United States of America, joined Aug 2006, 141 posts, RR: 0
Reply 12, posted (9 years 7 months 2 weeks 1 day 16 hours ago) and read 24173 times:

Breakeven is still loss making. It doesn't account for the time value of money or earning a required return on invested capital.

User currently offlineKatekebo From United States of America, joined Apr 2001, 712 posts, RR: 6
Reply 13, posted (9 years 7 months 2 weeks 1 day 16 hours ago) and read 24147 times:

Quoting Sebolino (Reply 2):
420 A380 sold is really possible in the next 20 years

The number to reach break-even is a function of time. This is because the sunken costs already expended accumulate interests over time, and getting to positive cashflow fast is key to achieve break-even. 420 sold over 20 years will not deliver the same ROI as 420 sold in 10 years. I'm sure that the 420 is based on a much more aggresive timing than 20 years, most likely something like 7 years from today, 5 years after reaching steady production. This would be consistent with Airbus original plan to deliver approx. 45 A380s per year. If it will take 20 years to sell 420 A380s, the program will be a net loss.

It is still a very good number, by the way.

User currently offlinePhollingsworth From United Kingdom, joined Mar 2004, 825 posts, RR: 4
Reply 14, posted (9 years 7 months 2 weeks 1 day 16 hours ago) and read 24147 times:

Quoting Leelaw (Reply 7):
No. However, the WSJ article reports that Mr. Sperl projects: "notional" break-even is 150 units, IRR has decreased to 13% from the 19% in the 2005 forecast, and long-term deliveries remain at 751 units. The WSJ also reports that Mr. Sperl's presentation is available on the EADS website, but I've been unable to locate it as yet.

I hope that you can find the report. I am interested in taking a look at it. I would like to see the cashflow projections that get them to the 13% IRR. The reason for this is that the volititlity on annual sales will have a large effect on the IRR.

User currently offlineThorben From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 15, posted (9 years 7 months 2 weeks 1 day 16 hours ago) and read 24150 times:

420 is a reasonable number to reach. They have already 249 orders plus options. There are also many potential A380 customers and potential orders. Those will come when the A380 has proven itself in service, which it will, because all problems this far are based on producing it, not on the plane itself.

User currently offlineNudelhirsch From Germany, joined Oct 2003, 1438 posts, RR: 14
Reply 16, posted (9 years 7 months 2 weeks 1 day 16 hours ago) and read 24147 times:

Quoting CHIFLYGUY (Reply 12):
Breakeven is still loss making. It doesn't account for the time value of money or earning a required return on invested capital.

What else is breakeven supposed to mean then???

Putana da Seatbeltz!
User currently offlineNAV20 From Australia, joined Nov 2003, 9909 posts, RR: 35
Reply 17, posted (9 years 7 months 2 weeks 1 day 16 hours ago) and read 24032 times:

Quoting Thorben (Reply 15):
They have already 249 orders plus options.

As far as I know they only have 159 signed orders, of which about 20 are for the freighter version?

It seems highly unlikely that the freighter version will proceed. Not only will it cost a lot of money to design, all the evidence is that the 748 freighter (with around 40 orders already) has out-flanked it.

Also worth remembering that the A380 wing was supposed to be strong enough for the freighter version as well. Given that the present (passenger version) wing failed at less than the mandatory '150% of load' criterion, a wing strong enough for the freighter version would presumably require considerable extra strengthening (at yet more 'extra-over' cost)?

Whatever else Airbus do about the troubled A380, deferring/cancelling the freighter version would appear to be a sensible and non-controversial step?

"Once you have flown, you will walk the earth with your eyes turned skywards.." - Leonardo da Vinci
User currently offlineRJ111 From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 18, posted (9 years 7 months 2 weeks 1 day 16 hours ago) and read 24011 times:

Quoting NAV20 (Reply 17):
It seems highly unlikely that the freighter version will proceed.


Nav, give it a rest.

User currently offlineJasond From Australia, joined Jul 2009, 23 posts, RR: 0
Reply 19, posted (9 years 7 months 2 weeks 1 day 16 hours ago) and read 23958 times:

Quoting Thorben (Reply 15):
when the A380 has proven itself in service, which it will, because all problems this far are based on producing it, not on the plane itself.

True to a certain degree, however an aircraft with such a troubled production and delivery history makes prospective customers apprehensive to any potential post delivery issues. Its only when you fill it with 550+ pax day in and day out will it really prove its worth. Producing it IS actually about the plane itself. There is always the possibility that if producing it is difficult so might be operating it.

User currently offlineDAYflyer From United States of America, joined Sep 2004, 3807 posts, RR: 3
Reply 20, posted (9 years 7 months 2 weeks 1 day 16 hours ago) and read 23930 times:

This is bad news. 420 frames is much higher than originally projected, and it will take a long time to reach that number. With no new orders in sight, it could be 5 years before that many are in service.


One Nation Under God
User currently offlineLeelaw From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 21, posted (9 years 7 months 2 weeks 1 day 16 hours ago) and read 23932 times:

Quoting NAV20 (Reply 17):
Whatever else Airbus do about the troubled A380, deferring/cancelling the freighter version would appear to be a sensible and non-controversial step?

Not sure about the validity of your hypothesis Nav. Nevertheless, it's interesting to note that barring any delays to the 748F program, projected deliveries of 748Fs (4th Qtr. 2009) will commence before the A388F.


[Edited 2006-10-19 15:09:56]

[Edited 2006-10-19 15:16:20]

User currently offlineSoundtrack From United States of America, joined Feb 2001, 284 posts, RR: 0
Reply 22, posted (9 years 7 months 2 weeks 1 day 15 hours ago) and read 23834 times:

I'm sorry - I have to join the naysayers on this one...

NYC777 is exacto - this is not good news especially when in just a year and a half it has gone from 270 to 420 is serious. This is also not implying 'very' possible cancellations and more delays.

This is serious as I have doubts this plane will ever make money with the 777-3, 787, and 747adv creeping away at potential customers. Emirates now sending a team to INVESTIGATE the reality of Airbus' delay, etc

I see this program as in serious FURTHER jeopardy of inflicting harm on all of Airbus for over a decade. All it takes is one cancellation by an airline and some might follow through - I hope not for Airbus sake as this will be a very good plane having seen it numerous time already. It is unfortunate the delays may really damper and endanger a very nice airplane.

Airbus wanted to create the biggest airliner in the world - and has done so...

...but be careful what you wish for, you might get it and then some...

User currently offlineMptpa From United States of America, joined Feb 2006, 549 posts, RR: 0
Reply 23, posted (9 years 7 months 2 weeks 1 day 15 hours ago) and read 23817 times:

Quoting Nudelhirsch (Reply 3):
420 is far less than the projected demand. This is indeed good stuff.

Projected by who? Airbus. It is a looooong cycle project and we really do not know the conomics and market emand in the next downturn and cyclic effects. Basically, it will take a long time to make an economic profit as opposed to accounting profits. We really need to calculate the opportunity cost of the sunk investment.

User currently offlineNAV20 From Australia, joined Nov 2003, 9909 posts, RR: 35
Reply 24, posted (9 years 7 months 2 weeks 1 day 15 hours ago) and read 23699 times:

Quoting Leelaw (Reply 21):
Not sure about the validity of your hypothesis Nav.

Not sure myself, Leelaw. But there doesn't seem to be any doubt that (possibly by accident) Boeing have produced a freighter jumbo that out-performs the A380 equivalent in all but the most highly-specialised (package-based) freight areas.

Personally I think that the A380 project as a whole is 'blown' and that every further dollar (or Euro) spent on it is just another dollar wasted.

I'd agree that there is room for doubt (not much, but a little  Smile) where the passenger version is concerned. But looking at the low number of orders for the A380F compared to the 748F, plus the delivery dates that you posit, plus the wing problem..................I can't see how spending yet more billions on developing the A380 freighter against only 20 firm orders can possibly turn out to be anything but an (expensive) 'lead balloon.'

"Once you have flown, you will walk the earth with your eyes turned skywards.." - Leonardo da Vinci
25 DLPMMM : The decrease in the IRR from 19% to 13% used in the new calculation is a very critical point in the analysis, as the decrease in the required IRR wil
26 Joni : I thought the A380 bashers were "calculating" a breakeven point of 800-1000 units? Come on guys, smile a bit - the program isn't in nearly as much tr
27 Sebolino : It's much too late to say that. Now that a few billions have been spent, and that the program has receives numerous orders, every euro spent help the
28 RJ111 : The A380F is not a lot more than an -800IGW. Most of the cost are probably already sunk, and i imagine at worse would barely exceed 1bill. FX said the
29 TeamAmerica : This is nothing less than an admission by Airbus that the current program will do little better than to break even on cash cost. They started off sayi
30 Sebolino : And ? The sun will not disappear if they don't break even. They will just have another plane to compete with Boeing.
31 DLPMMM : I am not an A-380 basher, but from the looks of it and using consistant calculation methods from year to year, it looks to me like your "bashers" wer
32 Post contains images Boeing767-300 : I doubt this project will ever break even. I would be very careful about what information EADS/Airbus release because the securities commission may in
33 Joni : That 270+150=420 is not a coincidence. And what is the relevance to this discussion? 410+10 is also 420. As you correctly note, the A380 has 159 orde
34 USAF336TFS : That's true Joni, on the other hand, it's not as rosey of a picture as you would like to believe it is. Reality is that it's somewhere in the middle.
35 NAV20 : RJ111, on EADS own figures (spelled out in their most recent profit warning) they are going to lose money just on the PRODUCTION of the first 90 A380
36 Cobra27 : Does 555 ring a bell? And I am not sure if 787 burns less per seat, I am sure than extended A380-900 with around 700 seats in 3-class would be unbeat
37 Post contains images Poitin : Ah, yes, an honest statement from a company that denies everything until after it is obvious to everyone. And from a company with complete financial
38 TeamAmerica : Duh! I'm saying that Airbus is not showing any profit on A380 sales so far, so the calculation is being reset to the current condition + the original
39 N328KF : Well, as others have said, there is an opportunity cost to the invested money. The "break even" also doesn't factor in inflation. Furthermore, if bre
40 DLPMMM : Indeed they cannot and did not. They are merely misleading in a legal fashion by telling to precisely how they are screwing with the numbers (Reducin
41 Katekebo : Very good point. Thanks for highlighting it. While it is not illegal, it is certainly quite dissapointing from the investors standpoint. 13% IRR is n
42 Lumberton : Does anyone remember the BEP cited in the Gellman Report?
43 Post contains images NAV20 : Well said, DLPMMM. I've met racecourse bookies that treated their 'clients' with more honesty than the likes of Forgeard have displayed. I much prefe
44 USAF336TFS : With the events of the past year in mind, even the most ardent Airbus supporters must admit that whenever we talk about this particular project, what
45 Post contains links TeamAmerica : http://www.leeham.net/filelib/050416-shadow.pdf Gellman predicted a loss on the program, so there is no BEP. His team projected total sales of 496 un
46 Stitch : I'm not sure how well the A380F is going to sell on her max payload (150 tons?) or her range (since most of the world's heavy cargo facilities are de
47 AirFrnt : That's a impressive amount of Spin. Airbus's own sales projections call for 20 a year. That means 12 years before break even is reached. That means t
48 N328KF : Is that really what they're projecting for annual sales? If that's the case, then how do they intend to make that fit in with their production rate (
49 RJ111 : That's nice but it has little relevance to my point which you've chosen to quote. Transport by land/sea is inheritantly cheaper than transport by air
50 Post contains images Zvezda : A WhaleJet carries about twice as many passengers as a B787, not three times. On a per passenger basis, it will be cheaper to fly New York to London
51 Post contains images Poitin : And with reasonable assumptions, the number would be? As a side issue, has anyone found the presentation by Airbus Chief Financial Officer Andreas Sp
52 Poitin : As I remember it, the 380F wing is all metal, where parts of the A380 pax wing are "composite", and that it required a separate wing loading test. Al
53 Ikramerica : Who? Most people have been saying 400-500 for quite a while. Just too Airbus a little while to catch up. And put the IRR back where it was, we are ta
54 Lumberton : Thanks. I remember the firestorm that report ignited here and couldn't recollect the number.
55 Post contains links RJ111 : Who wrote that? My analysis remains that the breakeven point is probably 600-800 and almost certainly 500-1000 (unless there are cancellations or mor
56 Bohlman : These are significant points that lead towards something I haven't seen mentioned in this thread (and i did read all the replies before mine). Basica
57 Post contains images Astuteman : If "notional" break-even means Number in=number out with no cost of capital considered, that would imply that the 420 number includes the cost of cap
58 AirFrnt : The IRR number decrease is pretty significant here. Actually, I believe I was projecting between 400-500 for breakeven, and 600 to meet the stated RO
59 Brendows : What airlines will operate the A380 @ 555 seats? The average will probably be around 500, at least not far from it. Even if you fill a 788 with only
60 Post contains images Astuteman : All other things being equal perhaps. If there is to be an A389, it will almost certainly be 600t MTOW vs 570t for the 388, have considerably more ef
61 Phollingsworth : Is this published somewhere? I cannot really tell what EADS and Aurbus are reporting. Are they reporting at what point, in deliveries, the program ha
62 Rpaillard : Hi, Are you Guys spending your daily time to find another bad news topped with speculation and extrapolation regarding this project? I mean, is there
63 Post contains images Astuteman : I first saw it in a Harvard Business School report on why Boeing didn't launch the stretched 747's when the A380 was launched. That report referenced
64 Post contains images Brendows : Hi there Astuteman I did have the MTOW of the A388F in my mind when I wrote that comment. Even with the usage of the materials from the A388F, the OEW
65 Post contains images USAF336TFS : A vitch, I tell ya! A Wwwwitch he, be!!! He's a witch!!! Burn him! Bbbbbuuuurrrnnn his miserable soul, why dontcha! Burn him now!    [Edited 2006-1
66 Post contains links B2707SST : If Airbus' weighted average cost of capital is 10.4%, an internal rate of return of 13% on the A380 is simply unacceptable for a project of its magni
67 Post contains links Egronenthal : The whole Airbus presentation can be found on the EADS web site at: http://www.eads.com/xml/content/OF00000000400004/0/74/41485740.pdf
68 TeamAmerica : Seriously? The break-even figure assumes that production is nearly sold out for the remainder of the project? Yikes! I have supposed that one of the
69 Shenzhen : Unfortunately, the cash flow from Airbus' other programs (A320/A330) is most probably being eaten by the A380 overhead. They may well need to wait un
70 TeamAmerica : Thanks for the link. I noted that slide 11 mentions exceeding expectations in noise levels and emissions, but lacks mention of airframe weight or fue
71 MIAMIx707 : No way they're going to get 420 orders in a few years. I actually doubt that they ever will. The A380 is a unique airliner. Most (if not all) airlines
72 Joni : Well this is true, since the B787-10 passengers would for the time being only make the trip in their imaginations as the plane still hasn't (AFAIK) b
73 Post contains images Astuteman : The capital cost I quoted includes a 5% (approximately) element for risk, so the risk-free rate is (approximately) 5.4%. So (according to Airbus), th
74 Post contains images Dougloid : Back about a year and a half ago I opined that at Douglas the point at which the MD11 was going to start returning some serious cash to the stockholde
75 RJ111 : It actually only says noise is better than commitment. Perhaps noted because they specifically addressed that early in the programs life when custome
76 Post contains images Glideslope : Thank you. This clearly shows how out of control the process had become. What have we been given over the past few weeks? Truth Telling, Ponying Up,
77 AirFrnt : Bear in mind that Airbus is dollarizing as rapidly as possible. While all of Airbus's cashflow is in dollars, half of their costs are now also in dol
78 Post contains links and images Coelacanth : Airbus says ????? Coelacanth http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/htm...nology/2003312713_webairbus19.html First profitable A380 superjumbo will now be th
79 Stitch : Hind-sight being 20-20, a 777-sized (or even larger) twin-jet probably would have been the most effective use of the cash.
80 Poitin : Well, back in 1999/2000 it was well known that both Boeing and MD offered superjumbos and the world yawned. Both the 747-500-600-700 and the MD-12 we
81 AirFrnt : These numbers are awesome, and really should settle some of the A380 debate questions for a bit. 75 Deliveries have been postponed past 2010. Operatio
82 Atmx2000 : Does this assume that the current models (A388 and A388F) will be the only models developed? I don't see the current passenger model having a marketa
83 Osiris30 : And cost how much additional $$ to develop? (question not arguement) So 460-470 frames at current $/eu rates then. As rapidly as they can to the poin
84 Adria : Ohh and your calculations are based on what? I didn't know you already have detailed info on the 787-10. And also a question. Most a.netters includin
85 B2707SST : If they're using a weighted average cost of capital (WACC), which I assume they are, that 10.4% figure is an average of their after-tax cost of debt
86 RedFlyer : They could've developed a direct competitor to the 747 that had a lot of room for growth. It would have killed off the 747 once and for all and left
87 AirFrnt : Part of the problem here is that we are applying industry standard practices, but in this case, Airbus's "share-holders" are not as interested in pro
88 EbbUK : I don't really care anymore if the 380 breaks even or makes a profit or loss. My main concern is that Airbus continues to make great planes with enoug
89 Katekebo : How about you making a donation? Maybe few other a.net-ers will pitch in an Euro or two?
90 Post contains images Coelacanth : Looks like you and Mr Noel Forgeard see things similarly regarding the A380 . His only concern was getting the big bird into the sky . However , was
91 Lumberton : I gotta ask this since I always thought the IRR was the rate at which when applied to cash flows (inflows and outflows) results in a PV of zero. It is
92 Zvezda : My calculations are based on extrapolation. I think you're confusing me with someone else. I have repeatedly opined that the B777 cannot be improved
93 Ikramerica : As I stated in another thread, the best course of action was very likely the A335/6 rather than 345/6. The knock on this was lack of engines, but som
94 Katekebo : This is how I interpret the numbers. IRR is the return you get on your investment. If you invest your money in stock, the stock appreciation plus div
95 Dakota123 : No. In relative terms a dropping IRR means that the investment is worsening. IRR is the interest rate that the project can 'withstand' and still be N
96 EbbUK : I was going to come and ask for some dollars from you. You want to help don't you?
97 AirFrnt : Thank you, that is the perfect way to explain it (I was struggling quite a bit above). Also, technically isn't it the discount rate rather then the i
98 B2707SST : Ikramerica has a great response in reply 93. To add to what he said, The A340-200 and -300 would not directly compete with a widebody twin in the 325
99 Leelaw : What is your interpretation of: "starting reference 2007 notional A380 breakeven is 150 [aircraft]?" (per Page 9 of Mr. Sperl's update)
100 LTBEWR : Problem with any projections over the next 20 years assume normal real life economic cycles. Wars, economic problems, the predicted sharp rises in the
101 TeamAmerica : If I may interject, my interpretation was that they expect to be even on production costs after 150 frames (i.e. losses on early production made up f
102 777236ER : No, not whatever it bloody takes. How dare you tell me that my taxes should go to subsidising a private business.
103 Travelin man : Would Airbus be able to save money and redirect resources by cancelling the Freighter version at this point? Or is it also too far developed for there
104 Ikramerica : You were blasted for saying this before, but it really sounds like the truth. The original estimate was 270 frames to break even. Now the delays and
105 Ozair : I am really getting tired of these "new engines for the A380" comments. How much cost to the airline and to Airbus would it be to re certify the airc
106 Post contains links and images Coelacanth : This will be tough for Airbus . The A350 is rumored to be postponed until the company can shore things up with the troubled A380 program . Coelacanth
107 WingedMigrator : It will cost some money to design, but most of that investment will directly benefit the A380-900, if the market for one materializes. The A380 wing
108 Post contains links and images Jacobin777 : "The Toulouse-based company has so far sold 159 of the double-decker aircraft in the six years since its official launch. It must now sell a further 2
109 Post contains images Osiris30 : Worse yet, why would engine makers want to go through the hassle for a couple hundred units total in their lifetime? I'm sure the engine makers are T
110 OldAeroGuy : Actually, Airbus did have a plan for a 744 killer. The A346 was designed with this role in mind. The economics of the A380F still stink at any range
111 EMBQA : From Who's next to jump onboard the A380 last month.... Quoting Manni: BTW, The claim that Airbus is only 33% on the way to break even, seems extremel
112 TeamAmerica : I can only speak for myself, but I never considered retrofitting existing aircraft. I think it is possible that the A380 will be offered with new eng
113 B2707SST : I think TeamAmerica's interpretation is correct. "Starting reference 2007 notional breakeven" means that ignoring all costs prior to 2007 (which were
114 Osiris30 : Maybe, but they'll be getting pretty close to Y3 at that point and I can bet where engine makers would put their effort at that point. XWB EIS is 201
115 DIA : ????????????? Gathering my thoughts here.......Okay. First of all, the A380 program has been the Airbus equivalent of "the emporer wears no clothes"
116 Osiris30 : What do you base that on?? The 380 has a horrible empty weight to max weight ratio. That means you're hauling around ALOT of airplane for your cargo.
117 DIA : You've got to consider the whole program life...not just the current base-model version. With technology advancements...the A380 is bound to have a b
118 Osiris30 : Ok, I see what you are trying to get at but you are forgetting alot IMHO. a) Until the 380F is actually improved to be useful (let's say 5-10 years)
119 DIA : Agreed. But how many is "not many" ...50? 100? I would hope so myself, but when Airbus was the "king of technology," the tables turned fairly quickly
120 Ikramerica : Right. This is what I tried to explain. Doing a little more math, you can pretty much prove airbus has not revised their forecast at all, just added
121 Osiris30 : Judging by the historical pace, 50 is generous IMHO. Except that unless Airbus brings out a clean sheet design themselves (thereby obseleting their i
122 Woosie : I'm interested in how you came to that conclusion, as I work there now. In Engineering, and like you, I 've worked there since before the MD-11 was d
123 Post contains images WingedMigrator : You guys are singling out one metric that fails to paint the whole picture. Yes, the max payload to OEW ratio of the A388F stinks, but there is a goo
124 Osiris30 : No I mentioned several factors/metrics in addition to the weight ratio, including but not limited to less flexibility in terms of payload size. It st
125 Dougloid : That information came from the mouth of Robert Hood in one of the big y'all come meetings for the troops.
126 Ozair : I would hazard a guess that more A380F will come from conversions of to be built passenger aircraft than new builds. Why buck the trend of finding it
127 OldAeroGuy : The metric that matters for cargo is cost per ton (or tonne)-mile. That's were the lower 747 OEW per ton, along with better TSFC engines gives it a s
128 Post contains images Zvezda : It really depends on engines. If SFC can be reduced enough, CASM could be 5% or so lower. I that's overstated. The nose door is rarely needed. I don'
129 JumboForever : Most of the time I prefer not to post on this kind of threat as reading them is already very enjoyable, but this thread about the break-even must have
130 AirFrnt : How is the combination of the A318, A319, A320, A321, A332, A333, A342, A343, A345, A346 not a full range of products? The A346 and A343 were targete
131 JumboForever : Don't agree here. A343 were first aimed at routes that needed the range but not the capacity of a 747. Don't forget that for a very long time, the 74
132 Zvezda : With the A318 through A340-600, Airbus had a full range of competitive products. Because the WhaleJet distracted Airbus from developing replacements
133 JumboForever : ?!!!??§§?§! I'd be happy to see numbers to support this. Lets look at the facts: AF: Ordered the A380 but no A346 EK: Ordered both EY: Ordered bot
134 BrightCedars : The A380 Airbus is a prestige program and I only wish Airbus it will breakeven on the overall project and not take them to the grave. Let's face it, s
135 Joni : They're doing it for the A320, so the costs aren't out-of-bounds. Remember that the engines are the object of continuous maintenance in any case and
136 Post contains links Leelaw : Here's an interesting tidbit in today's follow-up in the WSJ to the article linked in the threadstarter: ...Mr. Sperl's presentation also said Airbus
137 Brendows : If you are referring to the Tech 56-upgrade on the CFM-56-5/7, I would believe that updating an engine is pretty different from using a new engine, w
138 Zvezda : The facts you present are orthogonal to the question. Boeing sold the following numbers of passenger+combi JumboJets: 1989: 53 1990: 106 1991: 28 199
139 Post contains links and images Coelacanth : Coelacanth http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/htm...nology/2003312713_webairbus19.html Tecop has estimated Airbus will sell 496 A380s, including 43 fre
140 Post contains links and images Coelacanth : Coelacanth http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/bizchina/2006-10/20/content_713052.htm Boeing 787 set to fly past rival A350 in China (Shanghai Daily) Update
141 RJ111 : Without getting envolved in this particular discussion.
142 Post contains images Coelacanth : Have the number orders for the 737/A320 decreased ? No ! Has the 787 helped Boeing ? Yes ! Has the A380 helped Airbus ? No ! Why ? Wrong marketing st
143 Joni : Thanks for the links, although it isn't clear to me what the relevance to the present discussion is. Same applies here, although this time there are
144 NAV20 : My own feeling is that (unlike Boeing) Airbus just don't have enough 'aeroplane people' at the top. There isn't the pressure to get designs right fro
145 MrComet : Funny. I just predicted in another thread the break even point would be raised to between 400 and 500 and that this would mean it might break even ove
146 Katekebo : No, it is not. Please take a minute to understand the numbers. At break-even (420 sales) it will deliver 0% rate-of-return - same as stashing 12b Eur
147 NAV20 : Dead right IMO, Katekebo. The old joke about business was that if you could devise a better mousetrap, the world would beat a path to your door. My g
148 Post contains images TeamAmerica : You have done a much better job of making this point than I did. Joni...have you actually read this thread? The breakeven calculation Airbus is using
149 N328KF : Unarguably? What about Kelly Johnson? He certainly had his share of successful types. Those that weren't as successful were at least extremely influe
150 Leelaw : Once the nascent dogfight of behemoths on the constituent segments of the "Kangaroo Route" is fully engaged circa 2009-2010, this question will be qu
151 Frequentflyer : Hopefully Airbus will be able to avoid another financial Concorde-like mishap with the 380 by selling at least what's needed to break even.
152 NAV20 : DH started designing aeroplanes in 1909, N328KF. He sold his first one to the British Army, which had previously been interested only in airships; an
153 Post contains images Poitin : I just love all these exotic calculations based on what can happen, what might happen or wishful thinking. I come from a slightly different school of
154 N328KF : Johnson was the largest or a significant contributor to the P-38, Constellation/Super Constellation (which used the P-38 wing, scaled up), the F-80/P
155 Post contains images Ikramerica : Seems like you are the only one who read it though. Hope you liked it...
156 Post contains images Jacobin777 : After hearing about the delays, my numbers were over 400, but looking at all the costs associated, I would say around 500-525 frames needed... Consid
157 Post contains images NAV20 : I will, N328KF, that's a promise. Sadly, no, no proper ones. Nor is there much in the way of sources, he was a very private man, totally wrapped up i
158 Post contains images Ken777 : While that may be true, dropping the 380F will hand the 748F all potential future 380F orders on a silver platter. The 748 is a weird program for me.
159 Post contains links and images Coelacanth : A380 causing significant financial issues for the launch of the A350 ! Coelacanth http://www.iht.com/articles/2006/10/19/business/airbus.php Next dela
160 Katekebo : I think this one in particular is a non-issue. For the sake of protecting jobs, the Governments will give Airbus additional grace period before they'
161 Ikramerica : The 748F doesn't need Airbus to hand the program anything. It's already winning all the orders. Further, the bulk of Freighters will be from conversi
162 Zvezda : I don't think so. Private banks will just demand a higher interest rate to cover the risk. I don't think many JumboJets will be replaced by the B747-
163 Post contains links BoomBoom : I predict France and Germany will simply forgive those loans and write them off. While global airline traffic has risen nearly 5% annually over the p
164 Post contains images Adria : Heeh considering your "accurate" outlooks no wonder the 787 ends up having a better CASM than the A380 Emirates, Air France, Lufthansa, Singapore, Qa
165 Jacobin777 : No one said that the A380 wouldn't be needed by a few carriers.....as certain carriers will definitely put these birds to good use (and profits)....t
166 Adria : Oh and you know what will happen in the next 20 years? We can talk about how good the A380 was for Airbus then but before than it is really dangerous
167 Zvezda : If I were the only one predicting that the B787 will have a lower CASM than the WhaleJet, you would have a point. A lot has changed since those very
168 Post contains links Areopagus : It seems that some operators have asked Airbus to trade off some of that range for more payload. From AviationNow: While the aircraft is designed to
169 Post contains links and images Coelacanth : More A380 pessimism from the Aviation world ! Coelacanth http://www.iht.com/articles/2006/10/20/business/wbview21.php ViewPoints: Time won't wait, not
170 Post contains images Adria : Yes and we all see how accurate predictions are here on a.net True and if carriers would cancel the A380 orders you would be correct but this is not
171 Ikramerica : No, it really doesn't. But the 748F does not need to sell 420 units to break even. 150 in 20 years would be profitable. Continuing with the 748i prog
172 Nudelhirsch : Why compare A380 CASM to 787's? Different missions, different purposes, different kind of animal. Apart from that, the CASM of the 787 is not out ther
173 Post contains images Jacobin777 : Did you read clearly as to what I stated? I specifically stated.."as of now".... ..if anything, the A380 will probably be a permenant loss as an inve
174 Adria : So you are being shortsighted just to prove your point. The A380 is expected to sell at least two decades and not couple of years...that's why it is
175 Nudelhirsch : They sure will, and they have sold out quite a lineup of the production slots with the F, so additional orders might not be that much of a good idea.
176 Post contains images Ikramerica : Basically, because freight companies don't want to overfly their giant hubs with their largest plane. Talk about point to point!! The 8000nm A380F wo
177 Post contains images Jacobin777 : Many analysists are saying the plane wont' break even for over a decade...at least...that is almost 1/2 the cycle right there...the trend seems now t
178 BoomBoom : Nor is the CASM of the A380.
179 Nudelhirsch : More than the 787's. And figures are running in as the plane is being flown. Yet the 787 is a different kind of animal and used for different mission
180 Ikramerica : That's the problem though. Some people can't separate their feelings from the business case. I can't wait to see the A380 at LAX and fly on it on QF
181 Post contains images Jacobin777 : ....this will be very interesting to see which carrier "pulls the trigger" for the 1st 748I order..... Hey.ya' got me... but at least I was correct i
182 Katekebo : The reason for which early customer who already have the A380 on order are not cancelling is that, because of: - introductory discounts + penalties f
183 Nudelhirsch : The 748i is far from being a bad idea. Still while all people here are hating the fact that there is a gap below the 380, that gap works fine for many
184 Post contains images TeamAmerica : Agreed that most farm subsidies are wasteful, but US subsidies run about $13billion/year vs. $62billion/year for the EU. US subsidies are only 1/5th
185 Nudelhirsch : [quote=TeamAmerica,reply=187]You are thinking too narrowly. Airlines care about revenue rather than the size of the aircraft. If multiple smaller airc
186 Post contains images Jacobin777 : .....
187 Nudelhirsch : You guys sure you can?
188 Post contains images Jacobin777 : I'm not the one who is that it's going to generate substantial profits for EADS...
189 BoomBoom : Unfortunately Airbus hasn't released any hard numbers on the A380s performance--only vacuous statements like "it's exceeding expectations"--which are
190 Nudelhirsch : Yet we lack the comparison from across the pond, and as stated excessively, that does not do much, as we are talking different classes and missions he
191 Post contains images Zvezda : I look forward to it. No, Airbus need to sell about 50 WhaleJets every year. It's not happening. No, launch aid is also a form of subsidy. Because th
192 Nudelhirsch : You can't be serious here. They buy what they need for their missions, not what ist just the cheapest out there. Like mentioned beforehand, some airp
193 Zvezda : To clarify, airlines buy the airliner which will maximize their profit. That usually means the lowest CASM airliner that has sufficient range and tha
194 Ikramerica : We are looking objective numbers in the face (numbers from EADS) and pointing out the objective truth, despite the desire of each one of us to see th
195 Post contains images 787engineer : Did you read what you quoted from Zvezda? No one's saying that there's no need for the A380. There will always been a need for VLA, but the "opportun
196 Post contains images Poitin : They find those aircraft that can fly the route, and buy the most economical. That is called business sense. Sometime ago, I published Zvezda's Laws
197 Nudelhirsch : So why were roughly 160 copies sold? Are the airlines stupid or does Airbus have over-brilliant sales-people? Sold because there was a case for that.
198 Zvezda : Which airports?
199 B2707SST : The early A380s were bought for their CASM advantage and for use at slot-restricted airports. At the time of launch, the A380 had the lowest CASM of
200 Poitin : Wasn't that a big topic of conversation about two weeks ago with regard to separation of other aircraft around the A380. If they haven't been, then t
201 Post contains links TeamAmerica : Odd you should cite ORD, as very few 747's serve that airport. Why should we expect the A380 to be different? There are relatively few such slot-rest
202 Osiris30 : The 748 has sold more frames since the 380 since the 748 has been launched. Thanks. Have a nice day. Yep. There was no way to compete with the CASM i
203 RJ111 : You're right, the sadism has gone over the top.
204 Poitin : Well, the fact of the matter is ORD is not A380 ready, nor is it likely to be because of the taxiways, and to correct them, it would require expandin
205 Ken777 : Both pax VLAs are in a lull right now. The 380 is probably in it's lull because airlines want to see how it performs in daily operations. Airbus prob
206 Areopagus : It's probably also in a lull because of the delay from dickering over the stretch-range tradeoff.
207 Pygmalion : I'm not sure why this doesn't get through to people... Just because there is a market for 200-250 A380 sized aircraft, doesn't mean there there is a m
208 Pygmalion : The other thing is the development costs to date for the 748i are in the millions, not billions. A lot of the developments is in the 748F which has en
209 Post contains images Adria : me too You said there is no market for the A380 today and those orders the airlines have are in the past. Today the airlines could easely cancel all
210 Zvezda : At the time, the WhaleJet offered dramatically better CASM than any other airliner available. The odd thing is that it sold so few when it had an adv
211 Aither : It's good to see you keeping repeating again and again the word "Whalejet" as many times as you can... it tells a lot. Anyway, the A380 got a lot of
212 A5XX : Even Boeing admits, nowadays, that a market exists for VLA. A market exists for aircraft even bigger than the 747-8. The key to success for Airbus, is
213 Osiris30 : First of all, I'm quoting you, but this isn't specifically directed at you. I'm really getting tired of this whole 'people need the 380 due to conges
214 A5XX : These are your own assumptions... Stay tuned... LHR is just an example. Frequency is doomed... almost everywhere... The airlines will need to adjust,
215 Ken777 : I personally think you nailed that one. Are there any spotters from the LHR area that can provide us with the various prop powered commuters that fly
216 Post contains images Leelaw : Every commercial aircraft program has suffered from "order attrition" in the form of: firm orders cancelled, options/purchase rights never taken-up, a
217 787engineer : When did Boeing ever say there wasn't a VLA market? Boeing's position on the VLA market has been pretty consistent over the past few years. There sim
218 Zvezda : In the last twelve months or so, BA, EK, LH, QF, and SQ.
219 Post contains links Bringiton : This throws some light on the A380 expenses and how Airbus plans to raise money etc - http://www.thepeninsulaqatar.com/Dis...file=Business_News2006102
220 RJ111 : KL, LH, LuxAir have 1 service each I believe. BD have some too though i'm not sure on frequency. Regional jets and prop are thankfully very rare.
221 Adria : Well few excpected Boeing to sell 1500 747s and it happened...a lot of aviation "experts" at that time were very pesimistic about the 747 (and it is
222 Post contains images Osiris30 : Because of??... Take off and landing separation is greater which is the issue with congestion, so I don't see what you're saying. Flight separation i
223 Post contains images Jacobin777 : Boeing never said there wasn't a need for VLA's...but Boeing has stated: "at this point in time, there is NO need for two manufacturers to build VLA'
224 Adria : There were no such engines to make the A340 a twin, because the designing of the A330/340 family started in the late 80s...
225 RJ111 : It's entirely correct because an A319 isn't traditionally considered a Regional Jet.
226 Astuteman : Thanks for the link, Bringiton. The report pretty much matches my expectations. Regards
227 Post contains images Poitin : Oh, okay, whatever you think.
228 Osiris30 : Nor did such a thing exist BEFORE Boeing asked for them. That's the entire point!!! Boeing has the foresight to go to engine makers and say 'build th
229 BoomBoom : The A340 entered service in 1993 only two years before the 777. It takes Airbus so long to design a plane, by the time it enters service it's obsolet
230 Zvezda : Airbus was a very innovative enterprise when Jean Pierson was still running things.
231 Post contains images Osiris30 : You're right. I shouldn't paint their entire history with the color that is currently used. Mea culpa. They have innovated in the past.. just not for
232 Leelaw : Unfortunately, the stakeholders of Airbus acquiesced to replacing Jean Pierson, a man who trying to build a sound business, with Noel Forgeard, a man
233 Joni : That remains to be seen. Of course the Superjumbo delays aren't related to market forecasting at all, but probably both planes will eventually do wel
234 Osiris30 : Not when you consider an 'old' large plane (mostly metal, older engine tech, etc.) compared to a 'new' smaller plane (mostly composite, newest engine
235 RJ111 : If you think differently come down off your high horse and let us all know. Otherwise i can only assume you're too afraid that your opinion is wrong.
236 Bringiton : BINGO , Get a CFRP A350X-10 or a streched 787-11 and technically you should be able to compete very well with the A388 on CASM simply because of econ
237 BoomBoom : Would you mind putting some paragraph returns into your posts? It would sure make them easier to read and understand.
238 Bringiton : One more point about the interpretation of these fundamentals is that they are broad in scope and are very much a macro view of things . Ofcourse if a
239 Bringiton : Surely will do in the future . Sorry for the inconvenience
240 Post contains images TeamAmerica : Ditto - I've said this to Bringiton also. A.Net as done by Kerouac
241 Poitin : Goes to show that the guy at the top is the most important. Hopefully, they will find a new Pierson and soon.
242 Ikramerica : This is the point people are missing, but even more so, they are missing the more obvious point: The 345 and 346 are DERIVATIVES of the 330/340 which
243 Poitin : Let us review what was said -- In post 230, Jacobin777 said: Quoting RJ111 (Reply 227): Regional jets and prop are thankfully very rare. Actually, th
244 Post contains images Stitch : There comes a time when the terminal facilities themselves will be overwhelmed. Every flight into and out of LHR could be an A380, but the terminal c
245 BoomBoom : Thank you...mucho appreciated!
246 Osiris30 : What people miss when they make this 'look at the 747' arguement is the following: - The 747 opened up markets that didn't exist before due to it's r
247 Zvezda : Larger planes depend on having a lower CASM. Without that or a range advantage, they are nice for spotters, but death for airlines. Single-piece CFRP
248 Post contains images Osiris30 : I agree.. Which is why I said what I said I think this fact is lost on ALOT of folks on a.net. Airbus is in big trouble IMHO is they go with a panel
249 Joni : Yes, obviously you do need to look at planes of similar technological levels. An A380 with A350-generation engines will offer lower CASM than a B787-
250 Zvezda : Yes, but that would require the engine makers to offer such engines, which won't happen unless sales take off dramatically.
251 Osiris30 : It's not just the engines. I doubt Airbus will try to re-engine the 388, so you would be looking at a 389. But a 389 is going to have a significantly
252 Post contains images Poitin : Panel approach?? What panel approach? Surely they understand that a clyinder is much stronger for a lower weight as a unitified structure than "rivet
253 Osiris30 : Rumor is/was panels on a traditional or Al-Li frame, rivetted.. totally defeating the purpose and not saving nearly the weight or maintenance.
254 Zvezda : The latest plan is to use laser welding for the A350. That will reduce the structural weight relative to rivetting. It's a good step forward, but I d
255 Osiris30 : How do you laser weld composites? Are you saying they are going pure metal now?
256 Zvezda : Al-Li is a metal alloy, not a composite, and it can be welded.
257 Osiris30 : Right I know that.. are you saying the skin will be Al-Li or just frame elements? I thought there were going to use composite panels for skin which w
258 Poitin : Thanks for the insight -- should be interesting. I think you are confusing GLARE which is a sandwich of AL and fiberglass with the LI-AL metal. Airbu
259 Osiris30 : NO NO NO .. I didn't realize they were going to use Al-Li for as much as it sounds. I was assuming composites.. thus my surprise when I heard welding
260 Leelaw : The public reaction of Mr. Udvar-Hazy and other ILFC executives to the outline of the A350XWB presented by Airbus at Farnborough was rather muted. I'
261 Post contains links and images TeamAmerica : This was reported last week by the Times: http://business.timesonline.co.uk/article/0,,13130-2406553,00.html and was the subject of a thread Rumored
262 Post contains images Atmx2000 : Kudos for the thread citaiton I did notice it, but I discounted it because it doesn't make sense given the problem of how to attach those panels toge
263 Post contains images RJ111 : I'm sure he'll know what i'm getting at. Besides, Jacobin provided nothing to back up his statement. Because an RJ is supposedly... ....whereas Jacob
264 Osiris30 : Ya.. that's kind of why I was surprised when welding was mentioned earlier. Ofcourse welding was mentioned with the assumption it would be Al-Li and
265 Bringiton : You have read it a bit wrong . What i was comparing was 2 aircrafts having Comparable (or near equal ) CASM and what the disadvantage would exist for
266 Post contains images NAV20 : Dead right IMO. Bringiton. I imagine that the economic concept of the 'margin' applies to airlines in the same way that it does to all other business
267 Osiris30 : Airbus's longer development cycle is really starting to cost them.. It has caused them to slip onto the wrong side of the tech curve. Boeing figured
268 Post contains images Leelaw : Actually, as the chart from FI I posted way back in my Reply #21 indicates, the anticipated deliveries of the 748F (4th Qtr. 2009) will now commence
269 Zvezda : This is especially remarkable considering that until recently Airbus had better manufacturing and production than Boeing. Forgeard really squandered
270 Post contains links Joni : CFRP barrels may offer easier maintenance (if Boeing's plans work out). I don't think that equals the introduction of jet engines. Similarly it could
271 Zvezda : I hope you're kidding. It's not clear how B787 sales could be any better. If that were true, there would be Al-Li satellites in orbit. There are not.
272 NAV20 : Joni, neither Boeing nor Airbus have published 'hard figures' on either aeroplane - though I'm sure that they fully inform the airlines. However, fro
273 Jacobin777 : I pointed out a number of months ago between the densities of carbon composites used in Aviation and Al-Li used in aviation....their not even close..
274 Dynkrisolo : It's a lot more than easier maintenance and reduced wieght. It will drastically reduce the number of parts. It will also reduce manufacturing time. A
275 Post contains images NAV20 : I've heard that there may be another factor which, if it pans out, will do nothing less that make aluminium construction obsolete. Ever since the los
276 Post contains images Stitch : Neither of which bothers Mssr. Hazey since all he cares about is how much he can lease it for now and sell it for freighter conversion later. And on
277 Post contains images Zvezda : I think your numbers of right, but they are only part of the story. The WhaleJet benefits from having the same flight crew labour costs spread over a
278 Post contains images TeamAmerica : Perhaps the staff in the A380 project need to send a memo to the A350XWB people and tell them not to launch. A350-1000 will certainly have a lower CA
279 Zvezda : Could this by why Airbus seem not be in any hurry to develop the A350? Are the WhaleJet fans inside Airbus trying to ensure the A350 doesn't kill it?
280 Post contains images Poitin : Two pilots verses four? The FA are going to be about the same, one per 50 PAX. This is, of course, Zvezda First Law. Quoting Poitin (Reply 176): This
281 Zvezda : A B787 and a WhaleJet will need the same number of pilots for flights of the same duration. That means pilot labour costs, on a per passenger basis,
282 AirSpare : You can't argue with this statement. The original 350 ver. 1, 2, 3 was the same. Al-Li is at a disadvantage, fatigue, corrosion, higher cabin pressur
283 Post contains images Poitin : Two verses four pilots spread over 500 PAX. I think the increased yeilds of two smaller aircraft (Zvezda's dictum) will easily cough up the differenc
284 Post contains images TeamAmerica : I am willing to supply all the Unobtanium they need, cash in advance.
285 Joni : Good point - let's limit "aerospace" to "aircraft". How many B787-10s are there on order? I had the impression the program wasn't yet launched, but I
286 Dynkrisolo : I'm not saying the 540klb -10 will be a go, but AFAIK, it's still being used for discussions with potential -10 customers. I'm not sure where you get
287 Post contains links Zvezda : http://theaviationspecialist.com/747adv_vs_a388.gif http://theaviationspecialist.com/787_family.gif The 0.561 SFC for the WhaleJet has been often quo
288 Dynkrisolo : You're comparing to the smallest 787 model. The -9 and -10 will have significantly better per seat fuel burn than the -8. It's not the same. Boeing h
289 Dynkrisolo : Widebodyphotog doesn't always have all his data right. I have given you a logical explanation why it can't be the case. If you chose to believe some
290 Poitin : Yes, however you used the 787-8 with 223 pax. Sort of unfair when you consider the 787-9 can carry 250-290 and take them 15,900 to 16,300 statue mile
291 TeamAmerica : Respectfully, Dynkrisolo, you haven't. If you are refering to this then I have to point out that you appear to be adding and subtracting percentages,
292 Zvezda : Actually, no, you haven't. You've provided a chain of assertions with nothing at all to back them up. I quoted solid numbers with a source. Until you
293 Dynkrisolo : Nope, I'm not adding or subtracting percentage. if you want to talk math: (b - a) / a = x (assuming x is a fraction much less than 1) (c - b) / b = y
294 Post contains images Jacobin777 : C'mon Zvezda...you think QF and UA is just going to hand over the route to SQ, especially when its one of QF's more profitable routes? I don't think
295 Ikramerica : UA would take their 744 to 7 weekly and codeshare seats on SQ as a *A partner. Or is part of what the UA CEO said yesterday in response to SQ and oth
296 Poitin : Just where do you get these numbers? If you can show the SFC, then we could check your assertions. As far as I can see, you are pulling them out of t
297 Zvezda : What choice do QF have? Some passengers will prefer SQ to QF. Yes, exactly. SQ refuse to codeshare with UA because of the vastness of the service dif
298 Post contains images TeamAmerica : Ok, you are not adding percentages... or maybe you are? You are approximately correct. However, if the correct figure is 15.5% and you say 15%, you h
299 Post contains images Poitin :
300 Post contains images Jacobin777 : Sure..but I think QF would definitely fight fiercly with the competition....probably lose a few customers..also, yields would get hammered... Again,
301 Poitin : Leelaw, Since this is your thread, why don't you make a part TWO. There are over 300 items in this thread, and it doesn't seem to be slowing down. Poi
302 Post contains images Jacobin777 : I second that notion...
303 Post contains images Gilesdavies : Could it not be a good idea for this thread to be locked a new one started (part 2)... I may be a slow reader ( ), but it has taken me over 1hr jsut t
304 Poitin : Some of us don't have 15 MB per second internet connections -- some of us actually --- gasp!!! -- have 56 KBit telephone modems. Even with compressio
305 Zvezda : QF's yields would initially get hammered. QF could respond by cutting frequency and restoring yields and most of their profitability on the route or
306 Post contains links Gilesdavies : Good Suggestion... So that is what I have done! http://www.airliners.net/discussions...eneral_aviation/read.main/3056745/
307 Woosie : As much as I think highly of Airbus - and I do - I work for Boeing in Long Beach (was MDC) and have seen much local suffering at the hands of Boeing
308 Jacobin777 : I highly doubt QF would cut back on these routes....besides their Kangaroo route, this is their most profitable route... Given the coming up coming b
309 Post contains images Poitin : OKAY EVERYONE MOVE!!! [Edited 2006-10-22 23:39:15]
310 Woosie : Remember the "Robert Hodd and His Meery Men" cartoons? Man, they were great!! Bob Hood deserves a special place in hell for his handling of DAC.
311 Cfalk : Considering that the initial sale at heavy discounts has only been 159 units over the past 6 years (and virtually none in the past 2 or 3 years), I w
312 Post contains links Sabena332 : Hey guys, Please continue here: Break-even Outlook For A380 Now At 420...- Part 2! (by Gilesdavies Oct 22 2006 in Civil Aviation) Thanks, Patrick
313 Stitch : 62 strikes me as a bit more then "virtually none". While the EU may very well decide to postpone or forgive RLA repayments if the A380 program proves
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