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AeroMexico's Sales On The Tokyo Route?  
User currently offlineLatinplane From United States of America, joined Dec 1999, 2724 posts, RR: 14
Posted (7 years 11 months 1 week ago) and read 8363 times:

With less than a month to go before AM launches its much anticipated flight to Japan, let's discuss how the flight is selling. I'm sure some of you have access to the information so your contribution is very much appreciated.



TIJ-NRT

AM58 01:40 AM - 06:45 AM (Tue & Fri.)

NRT-TIJ

AM57 2:55 PM - 07:45 AM (Wed & Sat.)





From what I understand, the planes flying the route will be either (Frida Kahlo or Diego Rivera) the two original factory 777s, and not the new ex-RG bird, which will be used on the European and Brazilian runs.


 Smile LatinPlane

61 replies: All unread, showing first 25:
 
User currently offlineJfk777 From United States of America, joined Aug 2006, 8376 posts, RR: 7
Reply 1, posted (7 years 11 months 6 days 17 hours ago) and read 8293 times:
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With the US visa restricions this flight should prove valuable for connection from Latin America.

User currently offlineNaritaflyer From Japan, joined Apr 2006, 549 posts, RR: 1
Reply 2, posted (7 years 11 months 6 days 17 hours ago) and read 8287 times:

I'd say they would be lucky to get 20% load factor. 99.9999999% of Japanese don't know where Tijuana is.

User currently offlineLuisde8cd From Pitcairn Islands, joined Aug 2004, 2571 posts, RR: 31
Reply 3, posted (7 years 11 months 6 days 17 hours ago) and read 8275 times:

Quoting Naritaflyer (Reply 2):
I'd say they would be lucky to get 20% load factor. 99.9999999% of Japanese don't know where Tijuana is.

Hmmm ok.... how more ignorant can a post get?

Get some info about this flight first, then we can discuss. It's obvious that the main market here is MEX-NRT.

Saludos desde Caracas,
Luis


User currently offlineNaritaflyer From Japan, joined Apr 2006, 549 posts, RR: 1
Reply 4, posted (7 years 11 months 6 days 16 hours ago) and read 8233 times:

Quoting Luisde8cd (Reply 3):
Hmmm ok.... how more ignorant can a post get?

Get some info about this flight first, then we can discuss. It's obvious that the main market here is MEX-NRT.

Saludos desde Caracas,
Luis

Okay since we are talking Mexico City, I stand corrected, they would be lucky to get 30% load factor. Quién es el ignorante?


User currently offlineDCAYOW From United States of America, joined Nov 2003, 602 posts, RR: 3
Reply 5, posted (7 years 11 months 6 days 15 hours ago) and read 8181 times:

Checking the seat maps - it looks like (occupied seats includes the seats that appear to be occupied for crew rest).

Keep in mind, they didn't start selling this flight until one month prior, which means they didn't capture the people who had already made plans. November 2006 will probably be its worst load factor month consistent with a new route.

11/17 - TIJ NRT 4 J, 45 Y (17.7%)

11/21 - TIJ NRT 5 J, 22 Y (9.7%)

11/24 - TIJ NRT 1 J, 22 Y (8.3%)

11/28 - TIJ NRT 3 J, 20 Y (8.3%)

11/18 - NRT TIJ 0 J, 17 Y (6.1%)

11/22 - NRT TIJ 3 J, 18 Y (7.6%)

11/25 - NRT TIJ 2 J, 31 Y (11.9%)

11/29 - NRT TIJ 0 J, 20 Y (7.2%)

My question is if they are faced with low loads <15% will they scrub the first few flights and reaccommodate until bookings increase?



Retorne ao céu...
User currently offlineRCS763AV From Colombia, joined Jun 2004, 4395 posts, RR: 12
Reply 6, posted (7 years 11 months 6 days 14 hours ago) and read 8162 times:

Quoting Naritaflyer (Reply 4):
Okay since we are talking Mexico City, I stand corrected, they would be lucky to get 30% load factor. Quién es el ignorante?

Then why does JL fly a 747 to MEX with decent loads? I know part of the pax go to YVR but a carrier wont start a route if most of the pax will get down from the plane in the first stop...

I wish the best luck to AM on this one. Im sure it will pick up from January.



Les escribo desde el frío de mi verde altiplano.
User currently offlineSwissgabe From Switzerland, joined Jan 2000, 5266 posts, RR: 33
Reply 7, posted (7 years 11 months 6 days 14 hours ago) and read 8143 times:

Quoting Latinplane (Thread starter):
TIJ-NRT

AM58 01:40 AM - 06:45 AM (Tue & Fri.)

NRT-TIJ

AM57 2:55 PM - 07:45 AM (Wed & Sat.)

Does the flight operate as MEX-TIJ-NRT vv. or TIJ-NRT vv.?

Does AM have MEX-NRT vv. flights?



Smooth as silk - Royal Orchid Service /// Suid-Afrikaanse Lugdiens - Springbok
User currently offlineJuventus From United States of America, joined Dec 2004, 2835 posts, RR: 2
Reply 8, posted (7 years 11 months 6 days 14 hours ago) and read 8113 times:

Quoting Naritaflyer (Reply 4):
Okay since we are talking Mexico City, I stand corrected, they would be lucky to get 30% load factor. Quién es el ignorante?

Since you seem to be sure of what you are saying, can you elaborate on your comment of why it will fail? Many people who fly between Asia and Mexico, fly thru LAX and SFO. AM just wants a piece of the pie. Besides, if it fails, you send the 777 somewhere else, simple. Airlines fail on routes all the time.

I wish they would eliminate the Tijuana stop, and do it non-stop MEX-NRT, because for the Japanese tourists who want to see the Mexican beaches, a stop in Tijuana means 3 flights.


User currently offlineNaritaflyer From Japan, joined Apr 2006, 549 posts, RR: 1
Reply 9, posted (7 years 11 months 6 days 14 hours ago) and read 8084 times:

Quoting Juventus (Reply 8):
I wish they would eliminate the Tijuana stop, and do it non-stop MEX-NRT, because for the Japanese tourists who want to see the Mexican beaches, a stop in Tijuana means 3 flights.

Because of the altitude at MEX I believe it is not possible to takeoff with full load of fuel especially in summer, and thus, the stop JAL makes in YVR.

I know I am being brash about my claim of low load factor. It has nothing to do with Mexico but due to the stop in Tijuana. You have to understand the Japanese market which is very complex but the gist of it is that people will not go on a 14 or 15 hour journey for a beach holiday. Also the availability of Japanese services is very important consideration. Anyway, this is a discussion for another thread but I wish AM goodluck.


User currently offlineSaab77 From Mexico, joined Jun 2004, 9 posts, RR: 0
Reply 10, posted (7 years 11 months 6 days 14 hours ago) and read 8082 times:

Everybody is forgetting about the cargo cotracts AeroMexico has with Toyota and other companies, this will reduce the risk of not being a profitable rout!

User currently offlineLaxintl From United States of America, joined May 2000, 25437 posts, RR: 49
Reply 11, posted (7 years 11 months 6 days 13 hours ago) and read 8058 times:

One thing that certainly works against the flight is the low frequency and the lousy Narita slot times which AM was able to secure which are not ideal for the few domestic connections at NRT and those further afield in Asia.

I'd also agree with Naritaflyer about the Japan travel market being a quite complex web from both passenger relations and the strenght travel agencies play.

In addition I doubt Mexico beach wishing Japanese traveller would consider AM, when he can reach many Mexican destinations one stop via carriers such as Continental, American, United all whom offer daily service and have tie ins with the major Japanese agencies such as JTB.

Anyways, I wish AM luck. Its nice to see them spread their wings to Asia, I just hope its not a waste of their resources.



From the desert to the sea, to all of Southern California
User currently offlineJuventus From United States of America, joined Dec 2004, 2835 posts, RR: 2
Reply 12, posted (7 years 11 months 6 days 13 hours ago) and read 8005 times:

Quoting Naritaflyer (Reply 9):
Because of the altitude at MEX I believe it is not possible to takeoff with full load of fuel especially in summer, and thus, the stop JAL makes in YVR.

Yes, that is the reason for the stop. I've experienced that problem flying from Toluca a couple of times.

Quoting Laxintl (Reply 11):
Anyways, I wish AM luck. Its nice to see them spread their wings to Asia, I just hope its not a waste of their resources

I like the idea of AM flying to Tokyo, it shows ambition and I think it will succed. Every important route from Mexico to the US & Latin America is already covered, its time to go long.


User currently offlineLatinplane From United States of America, joined Dec 1999, 2724 posts, RR: 14
Reply 13, posted (7 years 11 months 6 days 13 hours ago) and read 7976 times:

Quoting DCAYOW (Reply 5):
Keep in mind, they didn't start selling this flight until one month prior, which means they didn't capture the people who had already made plans. November 2006 will probably be its worst load factor month consistent with a new route.

11/17 - TIJ NRT 4 J, 45 Y (17.7%)

11/21 - TIJ NRT 5 J, 22 Y (9.7%)

11/24 - TIJ NRT 1 J, 22 Y (8.3%)

11/28 - TIJ NRT 3 J, 20 Y (8.3%)

11/18 - NRT TIJ 0 J, 17 Y (6.1%)

11/22 - NRT TIJ 3 J, 18 Y (7.6%)

11/25 - NRT TIJ 2 J, 31 Y (11.9%)

11/29 - NRT TIJ 0 J, 20 Y (7.2%)

Wow, those are some heavy losses. It was reported earlier that the first flight was already 80% booked?

Hope that the cargo contracts that have been mentioned minimize the potential losses for the low bookings for the month of November. November is indeed a slugish month after all.

 Smile LatinPlane


User currently offlineSwissgabe From Switzerland, joined Jan 2000, 5266 posts, RR: 33
Reply 14, posted (7 years 11 months 6 days 12 hours ago) and read 7951 times:

Quoting DCAYOW (Reply 5):
Checking the seat maps - it looks like (occupied seats includes the seats that appear to be occupied for crew rest).

Seat Maps don't indicate loads at all. A lot booked pax don't request seats in advance. I don't know how many % of seats are restricted with AM and if pre seat request is possible at all! The only indication would be a class availability or even better the actual LOAD figures. Nothing else...



Smooth as silk - Royal Orchid Service /// Suid-Afrikaanse Lugdiens - Springbok
User currently offlineRCS763AV From Colombia, joined Jun 2004, 4395 posts, RR: 12
Reply 15, posted (7 years 11 months 6 days 11 hours ago) and read 7886 times:

Quoting Naritaflyer (Reply 9):
will not go on a 14 or 15 hour journey for a beach holiday.

Then why is Cancun always filled with japanese tourists???

Quoting Laxintl (Reply 11):
One thing that certainly works against the flight is the low frequency and the lousy Narita slot times which AM was able to secure which are not ideal for the few domestic connections at NRT and those further afield in Asia.



Quoting Laxintl (Reply 11):
In addition I doubt Mexico beach wishing Japanese traveller would consider AM, when he can reach many Mexican destinations one stop via carriers such as Continental, American, United all whom offer daily service and have tie ins with the major Japanese agencies such as JTB.

Those are real reasons that would make the flight a failure.

Anyway, if you stop to think, this is a flight linking the world´s two most populated cities!! Both are huge economic centers and generate lots of traffic...



Les escribo desde el frío de mi verde altiplano.
User currently offlineLamedianaranja From Venezuela, joined Nov 2004, 1246 posts, RR: 21
Reply 16, posted (7 years 11 months 6 days 11 hours ago) and read 7886 times:

Quoting Latinplane (Thread starter):
the planes flying the route will be either (Frida Kahlo or Diego Rivera)

I'm a bit ignorant too. When were they named? Or have they always had those names maybe? I've always seen them referred to as 'the morochos' (twins).



I wish that all skies were orange and blue!!
User currently offlineLatinplane From United States of America, joined Dec 1999, 2724 posts, RR: 14
Reply 17, posted (7 years 11 months 6 days 11 hours ago) and read 7854 times:

Quoting Swissgabe (Reply 14):
Seat Maps don't indicate loads at all. A lot booked pax don't request seats in advance. I don't know how many % of seats are restricted with AM and if pre seat request is possible at all! The only indication would be a class availability or even better the actual LOAD figures. Nothing else...

I see... Explains then why it was mentioned before that the inagural flight is already more than 80% full. Of course, I suspect that many flying on board will be Mexican/Japanese dignitaries and company officials.

Quoting Lamedianaranja (Reply 16):
I'm a bit ignorant too. When were they named? Or have they always had those names maybe? I've always seen them referred to as 'the morochos' (twins).

No Naranjita, you're not ignorant. It was planned by the company to rename "el Morocho" (N745AM) to "Frida Kahlo," while "Diego Rivera" would be N746AM. Nothing has turned out yet, but that was the original plan. Actually, Mexicans don't use the term "Morocho" for twins, but "cuates" (Correct me if I'm wrong) The name was to honor a person who worked with AeroMexico for 40 something years with an Italian last name that I don't recall, but nicknamed "el Morocho" by his co-workers.

  LatinPlane

[Edited 2006-10-23 20:54:28]

[Edited 2006-10-23 21:05:27]

User currently offlineFyano773 From Mexico, joined Mar 2004, 784 posts, RR: 1
Reply 18, posted (7 years 11 months 6 days 11 hours ago) and read 7837 times:

Quoting Laxintl (Reply 11):
In addition I doubt Mexico beach wishing Japanese traveller would consider AM, when he can reach many Mexican destinations one stop via carriers such as Continental, American, United

TIJ is very well connected nonstop to major cities and resorts in Mexico. The leisure traffic is just part of the picture. Besides, biz-pax, cargo and traffic from SOCAL and SA will contribute to the overall.

Quoting Latinplane (Reply 17):
The name was to honor a person who worked with AeroMexico for 40 something years with an Italian last name that I don't recall, but called "Morocho" by his co-workers.

IIRC, Morosini...

Fyano


User currently offlineLamedianaranja From Venezuela, joined Nov 2004, 1246 posts, RR: 21
Reply 19, posted (7 years 11 months 6 days 11 hours ago) and read 7822 times:

Quoting Latinplane (Reply 17):
No Naranjita, you're not ignorant.

Thx! But I didn't know that only one of them was 'The Morocho' and named for an actual person. I thought it was just the way they referred to those 2 identical, beautiful silver birds.

I still have to fly them, we went to Mexico last summer but were able to get on the direct KL flight, otherwise it would have been a wonderful alternative.



I wish that all skies were orange and blue!!
User currently offlineLaxintl From United States of America, joined May 2000, 25437 posts, RR: 49
Reply 20, posted (7 years 11 months 6 days 10 hours ago) and read 7789 times:

Quoting Fyano773 (Reply 18):
cargo and traffic from SOCAL

Having worked in cargo, I doubt 1kg of SoCal destined cargo will flow over AM's TIJ route when there is plenty of belly and freighter cargo capacity between Asia and California.
In addition trucking cargo from TIJ back into SoCal would create added transit time and added customs documentation requirements and cost on both sides of the border.

Also remember the flight is only twice weekly. US & Japanese freight forwarders look for schedule frequency and have block space agreements and pricing contract with most larger air carriers.

What AM would carry is Mexico destined cargo, much of it overflow of what cannot be handled by other airlines with daily one stop service. Same goes for Asia-South America cargo which is carried quite efficiently and successfully by airlines such as AA, CO, UA onestop over their hubs currently with very short enroute times.



From the desert to the sea, to all of Southern California
User currently offlineLipeGIG From Brazil, joined May 2005, 11438 posts, RR: 58
Reply 21, posted (7 years 11 months 6 days 10 hours ago) and read 7781 times:
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Considering the time-table, connections from Brazil will be not a strong market for this flight. Even the new 2 weekly frequencies does not allow connection from Brazil to Japan thru TIJ (and also needs a connection MEX-TIJ).

Felipe



New York + Rio de Janeiro = One of the best combinations !
User currently offlineNaritaflyer From Japan, joined Apr 2006, 549 posts, RR: 1
Reply 22, posted (7 years 11 months 6 days 10 hours ago) and read 7745 times:

Quoting RCS763AV (Reply 15):
Then why is Cancun always filled with japanese tourists???

That's "very" news to me. You might be exaggerating just a tad.


User currently offlineFyano773 From Mexico, joined Mar 2004, 784 posts, RR: 1
Reply 23, posted (7 years 11 months 6 days 10 hours ago) and read 7727 times:

Quoting Laxintl (Reply 20):



Quoting Laxintl (Reply 20):
Quoting Fyano773 (Reply 18):
cargo and traffic from SOCAL

Having worked in cargo, I doubt 1kg of SoCal destined cargo will flow over AM's TIJ route when there is plenty of belly and freighter cargo capacity between Asia and California.

Completely agree, I meant cargo between Mexico & Japan and traffic from SOCAL, etc.

Commercial interchange MEX-JAP achieved 15,000M USD in 2005, on the other hand, the Mexico trade balance with Chile is one third (5,000M) with several weekly flights MEX-SCL. I know both markets are very different, but due to the free trade pact MEX-JAP and increasing relations, one can think a couple of flights should work.

Fyano


User currently offlineRCS763AV From Colombia, joined Jun 2004, 4395 posts, RR: 12
Reply 24, posted (7 years 11 months 6 days 9 hours ago) and read 7677 times:

Quoting Naritaflyer (Reply 22):
That's "very" news to me. You might be exaggerating just a tad.

Of course there´s not thousands of japanese arriving everyday as from the us and canada, but there is a large amount of tourists that go to cancun from japan, i would say some 80-100 daily arrivals.

Quoting LipeGIG (Reply 21):
(and also needs a connection MEX-TIJ).

Is the flight originating in MEX or TIJ????



Les escribo desde el frío de mi verde altiplano.
25 Gigneil : This flight is certainly not there to cater to the Japanese leisure market. NS
26 AeroMexico777 : HI! Totally agree Gigneil, I think its going after the major industries we have in the north of Mexico... And I think most of the japanese tourists th
27 Juancarlos : The route MEX-NRT is very very long, but is a great market for Aeromexico. US Goverment , nees that tha passager that need a conection inside US have
28 MTYFREAK : Specially now that TIJ is becoming "A volar" hub which just closed a deal for 20 737, TiJ traffic will grow considerable in the next years, let's kee
29 EddieDude : Ghost, do you have the statistics of TIJ vs. HMO in terms of passengers served per year?
30 Post contains links MTYFREAK : TIJ 2005 3,472,073 pax HMO 2005 1,206,729 pax Source: http://hermosillo.aeropuertosgap.com.mx http://tijuana.aeropuertosgap.com.mx/
31 Post contains links DFWMEX : http://www.airliners.net/open.file/1127339/L/ Somebody already posted a pic of the third 777 in new colors. What was it doing in China, I wonder? This
32 EddieDude : I believe the lessor sent it to China for maintenance and that is where it got the new livery. Thanks a lot!
33 Post contains links Centrair : Travelvision Magazine, a magazine for the Japanese travel industry had an article (The only one in Japanese about this flight). It says that they are
34 Post contains images Ghost77 : Stats have been posted already, but I have another cool fact... AM in August moved 29,000 pax out from TIJ... wanna know who's second??? Yes... Avola
35 Carpethead : Contrary to your comment, the arrival and departing times are very good for onward connections to Asia and domestic destinations. Once one arrives at
36 Laxintl : Actually, you cannot make connections to places such as KUL, SIN(only tight 55min connection on NW), CGK. Domestically the first flight to Osaka for
37 Centrair : you may not be able to make very convenient connections on Skyteam or Skyteam partners. If you stay within the alliance then you do have to sit aroun
38 Laxintl : I agree you can make outbound connections in the morning, however try finding a flight on the return from SIN, KUL, CGK for instance that connects wi
39 Post contains links Centrair : Really?.... SQ996 (Daily) DEP SIN 23:40 ARR NRT 7:05 MH088 (Daily) DEP KUL 23:35 ARR NRT 7:10 TG640 (Daily) DEP BKK 00:50 ARR NRT 8:30 GA880 (Daily)
40 Laxintl : So you'd recommend a passenger arrive NRT early in the morning off a red-eye and hang out 6-8 hours for the 255pm AeroMexico flight? You've gotta be
41 Post contains links Fyano773 : Additionally: JL3002 (Daily) Departs Osaka (Itami) - 08:30. Arrives Tokyo (Narita) - 09:45. JAL to offer two daily fligths between Tokyo (NRT) and Osa
42 Centrair : I never said they were convenient. But you said, You said nothing about find a "CONVENIENT" flight with reasonable transfer time. You can connect to N
43 Naritaflyer : Okay, like Americans say and I'm sorry of this is rude but "dude" give it up. I guarantee you there isn't 80 J-tourists going to Mexico per day and n
44 Jfk777 : AM's Narita flight shows an effort to join the two ocean club. Tijuana probably isn't the most desired stopover, but the most practical one in norther
45 EddieDude : Especially to those living in the western side and suburbs of Mexico City if the TIJ-NRT-TIJ fare is lower than the MEX-NRT-MEX fare.
46 Ghost77 : List all things you want to add and believe what you read and say here and there... I can read about Japan and know some things about the country but
47 MaverickM11 : ....consistent with a new route that's only sold for 30 days. The route is going to be horrible in November, but nothing looks good in the first mont
48 Centrair : I wonder if AM will increase frequency when they gets more 777s. If Mexico is going to be this important and could be huge for the Japanese, they bett
49 Jfk777 : Thinhs will pick up in December for teh Christmas Holiday and for A japanesse holiday in late January. AM will have low loads, but cargo may save the
50 Orbis : I am getting the following info while reserving a seat for the Nov16th flight Cheaper Ticket: 1,200 USD R/T Clase Premier: 8800 USD R/T Double mileage
51 RCS763AV : OK, whatever. Even if all that you said in completely ignorant and discriminatory. There is lots of japanese food in all latin amrican capitals, ther
52 Post contains images Luisde8cd : This might be the first time that I agree with you.... but yes, I saw a large Travel Agency full of Japanese signs and staff (no spanish at all) in t
53 Post contains links AM744 : I'm confident the flight will somehow work. After all we're talking about the two biggest metropolitan areas in the world, and before anyone starts ta
54 Centrair : Just a little thing I found about JL's ops in Mexico. Direct flights Mexico City (via YVR) Codeshare Monterrey(c) Cancun(c) Guadalajara(c) Los Cabos(c
55 NAVEGA : As usual this move is Aeromexico trying to up on Mexicanas news of starting service to China next year. From what I read it does not look good for suc
56 Naritaflyer : You can get as insulted as you want but Mexico is NOT safe when you compare it to Japan or Canada and so on. In any event, I said there is a "percept
57 AeroMexico777 : Hello... Its sad to se that a simple question about AM sales on tokyo route ended in a bashing to Mexico... YES, we dont have one of the best safety r
58 AirScoot : I just went and looked these up.. MTY is condeshared with AA. SJD is codeshared with MX (I guess they do have an agreement), CUN is with AA, and GDL
59 Naritaflyer : I respectfully disagree. Safety and health issues are very very important in the aviation business. If people think that a place is unsafe they will
60 Britmex : Well.... As a German-Mexican I have a lot to say about "1st and 3rd world" living standards. Japan is a hugely populated country and wherever I go (as
61 Ghost77 : Who said Mexico was better than Japan or Canada in terms of safety records? You have some problems dude! Big pride and nationalism is what I smell. I
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