Iwok From Sweden, joined Jan 2005, 1106 posts, RR: 0 Posted (6 years 7 months 17 hours ago) and read 7937 times:
I was just perusing the Airbus and Boeing websites and got to thinking about orders for each company's respective VLA. Turns out the 747 has outsold the 380 since 2000 when the 380 was launched.
Interesting turn of events no? Hard to imagine that this outcome was even thought remotely possible when the WhaleJet was launched with great fanfare.
EHHO From Bulgaria, joined Dec 2005, 815 posts, RR: 8 Reply 1, posted (6 years 7 months 17 hours ago) and read 7911 times:
Dude, you're comparing apples with oranges. First and foremost, A380 and the 744 aren't direct competitors. Even with the 748 the A380 isn't competing directly. Then, comparing orders for a plane that exisits in the current model since 1989, and more generally since the late 1960s with somwthing that wasn't even made at the time doesn't make much sense either. These huge technological projects have equally huge development cycles, and the real succes or failure of the A380 won't be known for years, perhaps deades.
"Get your facts first. Then you may distort them as much as you please" -- Mark Twain
Sebolino From France, joined May 2001, 3667 posts, RR: 5 Reply 2, posted (6 years 7 months 17 hours ago) and read 7905 times:
Quoting Iwok (Thread starter): Interesting turn of events no? Hard to imagine that this outcome was even thought remotely possible when the WhaleJet was launched with great fanfare.
I don't think it's so incredible.
The 747 is still a great plane, and we knew that all airlines were not willing to switch to the bigger A380.
WINGS From Portugal, joined May 2005, 2831 posts, RR: 70 Reply 3, posted (6 years 7 months 17 hours ago) and read 7882 times:
Quoting Iwok (Thread starter): I was just perusing the Airbus and Boeing websites and got to thinking about orders for each company's respective VLA. Turns out the 747 has outsold the 380 since 2000 when the 380 was launched.
Hi Iwok,
I'm sure that you will also realise that the B747 has been in production in that period. It would be natural to see the B747 gather more orders then the A380, after all the do have to keep the line moving.
If you permit, I would like to make a suggestion. I think that it would be appropriate to break down the orders for the A380 and B747 by Passenger/Freigter orders. By doing this it will give us an even better understanding into the market potential of both models.
Toulouse From Ireland, joined Apr 2005, 2718 posts, RR: 58 Reply 4, posted (6 years 7 months 17 hours ago) and read 7863 times:
Quoting EHHO (Reply 1): Dude, you're comparing apples with oranges. First and foremost, A380 and the 744 aren't direct competitors. Even with the 748 the A380 isn't competing directly. Then, comparing orders for a plane that exisits in the current model since 1989, and more generally since the late 1960s with somwthing that wasn't even made at the time doesn't make much sense either. These huge technological projects have equally huge development cycles, and the real succes or failure of the A380 won't be known for years, perhaps deades.
EHHO summed it all up. Nothing to add. Anyway, well done B747 and Good luck A380!
Cobra27 From Slovenia, joined May 2001, 987 posts, RR: 0 Reply 5, posted (6 years 7 months 17 hours ago) and read 7859 times:
You are comparing like Airbus managers. Last year year they sold 1100 planes (I don't know how they managed to extend the selling year by a month, maybe they went to the wormhole?) and beat Boeing with 1002 planes. But around 400 of Boeing planes were widebodies, versus less than 200 for Airbus.
The A380's main competitor will be the 748 but they both cater for different markets. A true competitor to the A380 will be the extended 748 if it ever arises
RichardPrice From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR: Reply 7, posted (6 years 7 months 17 hours ago) and read 7822 times:
Yes, the 747 outsold the A380 - but only on freighter sales. If you compare like for like, passenger to passenger model sales, you have to go back to something like 1998 for 747 passenger sales to match A380 passenger sales.
Statistics are a wonderful thing, they allow you to start threads like this one.
Fraport From Germany, joined Jul 2005, 137 posts, RR: 0 Reply 8, posted (6 years 7 months 16 hours ago) and read 7786 times:
Quoting RichardPrice (Reply 7): Yes, the 747 outsold the A380 - but only on freighter sales. If you compare like for like, passenger to passenger model sales, you have to go back to something like 1998 for 747 passenger sales to match A380 passenger sales.
That may be right but from a financial point of view, are freighters less worth than pax planes? Does Boeing only make money with the pax version and give away 747Fs for free? The thread starter did not state that the 747 Pax version outsold the A380.
RichardPrice From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR: Reply 9, posted (6 years 7 months 16 hours ago) and read 7739 times:
Quoting Fraport (Reply 8):
That may be right but from a financial point of view, are freighters less worth than pax planes? Does Boeing only make money with the pax version and give away 747Fs for free? The thread starter did not state that the 747 Pax version outsold the A380.
Can a freighter do the job of a passenger model? Can a passenger model do the job of a freighter?
Is a 747 freighter sale one less A380 passenger sale? Is an A380 passenger sale one less 747 freighter sale?
Come on, at least compare like for like, all these figures demonstrate is that theres a larger market for VLA freighters with a higher floor loading, but on the flip side more A380 passenger models were sold over the same period.
In essence, the figures show that the aircraft are infact dominating the markets they are each aimed for....
Zvezda From Lithuania, joined Aug 2004, 10511 posts, RR: 65 Reply 10, posted (6 years 7 months 15 hours ago) and read 7677 times:
Quoting Cobra27 (Reply 5): So what is worth more 159 A380 or 162 B747?
The average selling price for a JumboJet since 2000 has almost certainly been higher than the average selling price of a WhaleJet. All reports are that Boeing have not been making any firesale deals, while there are many, many reports that Airbus gave very steep discounts on most, if not all, of the WhaleJets.
As has previously been noted, most of the JumboJet orders were for freighters (27 passenger, 135 freighter) while most WhaleJet orders were for the passenger model (25 freighter, 134 passenger).
Cobra27 From Slovenia, joined May 2001, 987 posts, RR: 0 Reply 13, posted (6 years 7 months 15 hours ago) and read 7575 times:
Quoting Zvezda (Reply 10): The average selling price for a JumboJet since 2000 has almost certainly been higher than the average selling price of a WhaleJet.
EMBQA From United States of America, joined Oct 2003, 9286 posts, RR: 13 Reply 14, posted (6 years 7 months 14 hours ago) and read 7531 times:
Quoting BA787 (Reply 6): The A380's main competitor will be the 748 but they both cater for different markets.
Not true, both cater to the same market. Boeing has just said there is no need to make a super jumbo and feel the 747 will be what the airlines want. Years ago they looked at building the Super jumbo 747, but felt the sales were not there to support it. So far with the dismal A380 sales Boeing was right. Don't think just because the A380 is bigger it creats a whole new market... it's just Airbuses approch to the high density-long haul market.
"It's not the size of the dog in the fight, but the size of the fight in the dog"
To whom? Just because it has a higher list price, doesn't mean it's worth more. I can offer to sell my watch more $300M, but if I have to discount it to $300 in order to get the sale, I can't claim it's worth $300M. Airlines are paying more for JumboJets than for WhaleJets. So how do you figure a WhaleJet is worth more?
Curmudgeon From Australia, joined Oct 2006, 695 posts, RR: 22 Reply 16, posted (6 years 7 months 13 hours ago) and read 7392 times:
Quoting Cobra27 (Reply 13): Quoting Zvezda (Reply 10):
The average selling price for a JumboJet since 2000 has almost certainly been higher than the average selling price of a WhaleJet.
No, The A380 is worth more
No. Especially in the context of the existing orders as distinct from any future orders. It has been widely reported and privately confirmed that up to 40%discounts were offered for at least the first 50 frames, and that most if not all of the 159 orders had inducements attached.
The compensation rebates are probably 7-8Million per frame exclusive of any additional penalties extracted by customers once blood was in the water.
So, since 2000, the actual selling price of the A380 (ie, all sales to date) has been discounted, certainly* to less than that of a 747 sold in the same period.
*"certainly" means without having seen any actual contracts for 747's in this period, but based on what is widely known about Boeing's sales efforts recently.
Based on both public and private sources. You read the industry journals. They report (in broad terms) on the sort of deals that are being done. As I wrote before, it is well known Boeing are not selling JumboJets are firesale prices. It is also widely reported that Airbus has offered some very steep discounts on most if not all the WhaleJets they've sold.
Shenzhen From United States of America, joined Jun 2003, 1701 posts, RR: 2 Reply 19, posted (6 years 7 months 8 hours ago) and read 6981 times:
Quoting Zvezda (Reply 18): Based on both public and private sources. You read the industry journals. They report (in broad terms) on the sort of deals that are being done. As I wrote before, it is well known Boeing are not selling JumboJets are firesale prices. It is also widely reported that Airbus has offered some very steep discounts on most if not all the WhaleJets they've sold.
I think you would be a little shocked at the discounts Boeing gave to the airlines back in 2005 as they tried to sell out the line before launching the 747-8.
OldAeroGuy From United States of America, joined Dec 2004, 3206 posts, RR: 66 Reply 20, posted (6 years 7 months 8 hours ago) and read 6918 times:
Quoting WINGS (Reply 3): It would be natural to see the B747 gather more orders then the A380, after all the do have to keep the line moving.
At this stage of the program, additional A380 sales are needed to make sure it's line will continue to roll. If no additional sales are recorded in 2007, it's an indication that the A380 future is in jeopardy.
Airplane design is easy, the difficulty is getting them to fly - Barnes Wallis
PlaneHunter From Germany, joined Mar 2006, 6190 posts, RR: 79 Reply 21, posted (6 years 7 months 8 hours ago) and read 6903 times:
Quoting Zvezda (Reply 18): Based on both public and private sources. You read the industry journals. They report (in broad terms) on the sort of deals that are being done. As I wrote before, it is well known Boeing are not selling JumboJets are firesale prices. It is also widely reported that Airbus has offered some very steep discounts on most if not all the WhaleJets they've sold.
There are indications, but it's still not enough to draw a general simplistic conclusion. The lack of reports about B747 discounts does not necessarily mean airlines haven't enjoyed them. We shouldn't forget the media focus has been on the A380 for years. You always find/hear more where you dig deeper...
WINGS From Portugal, joined May 2005, 2831 posts, RR: 70 Reply 22, posted (6 years 7 months 8 hours ago) and read 6851 times:
Quoting OldAeroGuy (Reply 20): At this stage of the program, additional A380 sales are needed to make sure it's line will continue to roll. If no additional sales are recorded in 2007, it's an indication that the A380 future is in jeopardy.
If Airbus manages to hold all it's 159 + 9 (SQ) on order then it's line will remain filled up until 2011-2012.
If by the end 2009 Airbus does not manage to capture new orders/options then I will agree with you.
A more fair way to make this comparison would be to compare the intitial 747 orders, for the first seven years it was offered as compared to the 380's first seven years:
747 = 225
380 = 159
Though, as stated above, there is really no comparing these becase they are not direct competors.
Russ
My glass is neither 1/2 empty nor 1/2 full, rather, the glass itself is twice as big as it should be.
Zvezda From Lithuania, joined Aug 2004, 10511 posts, RR: 65 Reply 24, posted (6 years 7 months 6 hours ago) and read 6702 times:
Quoting Shenzhen (Reply 19): I think you would be a little shocked at the discounts Boeing gave to the airlines back in 2005 as they tried to sell out the line before launching the 747-8.
I would be shocked since Boeing didn't sell any to airlines in 2005.
Quoting OldAeroGuy (Reply 20): At this stage of the program, additional A380 sales are needed to make sure it's line will continue to roll. If no additional sales are recorded in 2007, it's an indication that the A380 future is in jeopardy.
Quoting WINGS (Reply 22): If Airbus manages to hold all it's 159 + 9 (SQ) on order then it's line will remain filled up until 2011-2012.
If by the end 2009 Airbus does not manage to capture new orders/options then I will agree with you.
!!! 3 to 4 years with ZERO orders would not be an indicator to you that the WhaleJet program is in jeopardy?!?!?!
25 PlaneHunter: In 2005 Boeing received orders from eight customers for a total of 48 B747s... PH
26 OldAeroGuy: Don't agree. If there are no A380 sales until even mid-2008, it would seem to be a very strong indication that the market has passed on the A380.
27 Adria: Unless you can give some accurate numbers it is useless to make such statements. Correct Again give some figures on how much an airline paid for the
29 Zvezda: None of those eight customers were airlines. All of those 48 B747s were freighters. Haha! Ask the airlines -- and don't forget to tell them you'll si
30 Adria: Obviously you did otherwise why would somebody make such statements without any real facts? So I'm still waiting...
31 Shenzhen: Zvezda is just playing word games, so I wouldn't get too bothered. Boeing sold 48 frames, and I can gurantee that a lot of them were with "very" larg
32 RedFlyer: No, they aren't. But Airbus speculated plenty of times in the late 90's that 747 sales would all but end beginning in 2000 when the A380 would be for
33 RedChili: Many people have pointed out several deficiencies to your presentation of the statistics. Personally, I believe that the biggest problem with your st
34 Shenzhen: I guess if we used this analogy, then the 787 and A350 are tied at zero. Cheers
35 BoomBoom: I think that's what's known as a Pyrrhic victory...
36 RedChili: Judging by the order book, it seems that the A380 has indeed killed off the passenger versions of the 747, as Boeing has almost no orders for pax-747
37 RedChili: Today it's extremely difficult to compare those two airplanes, since Airbus has not committed to the A350XWB yet. But if the A350XWB is launched with
38 Ikramerica: "Another such victory over the Romans and we are undone" Replace "the Romans" with BOEING, and yes, if Airbus earns another such victory with the A35
39 KQ772: The 747 has outsold the A380 may be due to the fact that is is much older in the sense it has been in service way longer than the A380. The 380 still
40 Alaska737: BTW which has longer range, 748 or A380???
41 Ikramerica: B launched the 748i initially with 8000nm range to match the A380 launch range. Since, the 748i range grew to 8300nm from windtunnel testing. But the
42 Kaitak: Here's an analysis of the last 100 747 deliveries, which might be of interest on this topic; I did it without any reference to the A380 - it was reall
43 Zvezda: That's optimistic. Airbus are promising to deliver the first WhaleJet in October 2007 and the second in 2008. They are more than a year behind schedu
44 WingedMigrator: The range at max payload is 5000 nm for the -400ERF, and 4500 nm for the -400F. No, it's back to 4500 nm at max payload, same as the -400F. Few cargo
45 TurkishAviator: Does anyone have numbers for 787 vs A330 since the announcement of 787 project ?
46 PlaneHunter: It's not relevant whether they were freighters or not - check this discussion again (especially Shenzhen's comments). And last time I checked Cargolu
47 AirbusA6: I can see 3 alternative scenarios playing out (I'm assuming that that 747 will continue to get most of the freighter orders) 1) The A380 gets lots of
48 Zvezda: AirbusA6, I think scenario 3) is the likely one, but I don't understand how your conclusion 3) follows from it.
49 Poitin: Also, as someone pointed out in another tread, the A380 requires two double height loaders at each site the A380F operates at (one for backup) while
50 Jacobin777: I was thinking along the same lines
51 FlyDreamliner: The big difference here is that the A380 is what, at 1/3 the number of frames to hit profitability. The 747 is a supremely practical and impressive ai
52 EMBQA: No... even using early orders as a base the 747 has outsold the A380. The B747 was launched in March 1966 and first flown in Febuary 1969 with 158 or
53 WingedMigrator: Surely you realise a double height loader costs on the order of two percent of an A380F. And a standard 747 loader doesn't come for free either. Whil
54 Ikramerica: But if airlines already have the loader for the other frames, it's an EXTRA expense. 2 of them. At every station they want to operate to. And that ca
55 WingedMigrator: I seem to recall having said that. It is probably on the high side... 2% is about $5M. For order of magnitude comparison, a new city bus costs $300K
56 AirbusA6: Sorry, quoting myself, the last 2 conclusions are back to front!
57 RedChili: You have to remember that this has been a difficult period for the A380. Firstly, my impression is that today's airlines are reluctant to order an ai
58 EMBQA: How can you even use that...?? The B777 was rolled out and flying revenue within one year. Now almost 20 months after the rollout of the A380, they a
59 RedChili: Have I said otherwise? Did I ever state that the A380 entered service quicker than the 777? Did I ever state that Airbus had delivered more A380s qui
60 Shenzhen: So, how many total airplanes were ordered in 1994 vs the 2100+ in 2005? Not that it matters, as Boeing haven't really sold any, because Airbus doesn'
61 Iwok: In light of today's news on QF's latest orders, the title of this thread should change. None the less, I feel compelled to respond to the critics. yes
62 Zvezda: Actually, margins on new freighters are usually higher than on passenger models because there are fewer offerings and therefore less competition.
63 Iwok: Yeah, I could see that on the 744/748F models. The nose door and structural efficiency/payload are un-equalled. iwok
64 Zvezda: It's true for smaller freighters as well. Airbus should do very well on the A330F -- especially if they use the B787 engines (with bleed air, of cour
65 Adria: There is competition...freighter conversions Oh so now we are counting "apples and oranges" just to make it look better. The A380 by far outsold the
66 Iwok: Dude, I don't know what you are smoking. I gave you apples to apples i.e. NET sales. You're putting on your orange "reveal" jump-suit and getting all
67 Adria: "Dude" you don't get my point. The 747 was first meant to be a freighter (for the US government), they offered it as a pax version after not getting
68 Zvezda: Any relevance that might have to sales performance is tenuous at best. Of the 1469 JumboJets sold by Boeing 283 have been freighters and 160 have bee
69 Adria: This is not a thesis, but history facts. The 747 was designed as a military jet transporter but the C-5 made the race, so Boeing offered the same des
70 OldAeroGuy: If you want to deal with accurate history, then you need to withdraw this statement as it is completely wrong. Please read Joe Sutter's book on the 7
71 Mohavewolfpup: i think the best thing to do at this point is just sit back and let the A380 chips fall wherever. The plane either soars higher and higher with orders
72 Stitch: Boeing's proposal was very similar to Lockheed-Martin's C-5 Galaxy, with a high-mounted wing. It looks as much like the 747 as Concorde does. Yes it
73 Zvezda: Adria, Airbus and Boeing develop airliners to make money (ok, the WhaleJet was arguably an exception). They look at the development cost and the expec
74 BoomBoom: Randy: While we're on the freight subject, I think there's a common misperception that the 747 originally came out of the competition for the C-5 mil
75 Adria: I'm not a 747 basher so don't make up lies. When Sutter came to Ljubljana (his grandfather was Slovenian-so no wonder the 747 was so successful ), th
76 Zvezda: We noticed. There is a big difference between comparing two airliners and confusing two airliners. None of what you wrote after follows from what I w
78 Stitch: You may want to follow your own advice, then, when calling Zvezda an "A380 basher" in Post #69 since, while critical of the program as of late, he's
79 Zvezda: Yes, all those together add up to about $4B, but to count all those against the B747-8 would violate Generally Accepted Accounting Procedures. Boeing
80 Adria: I was referring to his statements (look in the database) that were about two things: 1.) 747-8I has a lower CASM than the A380 (but this are his subj
81 Zvezda: There is far too little data right now to draw your conclusion.
82 Adria: I'm telling that to you for quite some time...finally we get there
84 TeamAmerica: It's your logic that is at fault, Adria. If 1) is true and 2) is true, then the B748i will outsell the A380 (A380 being the larger aircraft with high
85 Jacobin777: And how many 748's have they sold to date? Oh yes, 48...guess that's such a terrible number in about a year...
86 Iwok: Please be my guest. You can go a some very enlightening web sites www.boeing.com www.airbus.com It is an eye opener to actually read factual material
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Hard to imagine that this outcome was even thought remotely possible when the WhaleJet was launched with great fanfare. 
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