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A380-900 Will Never Sell  
User currently offlineRedFlyer From United States of America, joined Feb 2005, 4329 posts, RR: 28
Posted (7 years 10 months 3 weeks 4 days 5 hours ago) and read 16862 times:

I keep seeing posts by A.Net members about the importance of Airbus devleoping the A389. Other than EK, which mentioned (off-the-cuff) a desire for the stretch model SIX years ago, has anyone else expressed a desire for the stretch? Does anyone REALLY believe with WhaleJet sales as slow as they are that somehow, by sheer magic, a stretch version will sell any better? Do people really think the true "sweet spot" in VLA demand is to leap over the 400 - 600 pax sized market and go straight to 650+ passengers?

I don't doubt there's a demand for an A389-sized aircraft. But beyond EK (do they still even want the plane in that size?), is there anyone else out there that would fly it even if there were no issues with EIS of the existing model?


My other home is a Piper Cherokee 180C
116 replies: All unread, showing first 25:
 
User currently offlineClickhappy From United States of America, joined Sep 2001, 9633 posts, RR: 68
Reply 1, posted (7 years 10 months 3 weeks 4 days 5 hours ago) and read 16854 times:
AIRLINERS.NET CREW
PHOTO SCREENER

I disagree. I think the A389, and any other stretch, would really let the A380 come into its own.

Hopefully Airbus hasn't screwed up the A380 project so bad that we won't see a stretch.


User currently offlineUA777300ER From Belgium, joined Jun 2006, 96 posts, RR: 0
Reply 2, posted (7 years 10 months 3 weeks 4 days 5 hours ago) and read 16844 times:

If the additional cost for developping the -900 is low enough to be covered by only a limitted number of orders, than demand doesn't need to be that high. Boeing has sold a couple of plane variants (747SP, 767-400ER, 757-300) that didn't sell very well, but could nevertheless be profitable.

I'm sure that Airbus did their homework before proposing the -900 to the airlines.


User currently offlineRpaillard From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 3, posted (7 years 10 months 3 weeks 4 days 4 hours ago) and read 16783 times:

Hi,

You could Guy be sceptical, but such a statement is your opinion, nothing more. Do you have elements to elaborate ?

So basically ...

Quoting RedFlyer (Thread starter):
I don't doubt there's a demand for an A389-sized aircraft

But ...

"It will never sell".

Sounds like so far a contradiction for me.

Raphael


User currently offlineHotelbravo From United States of America, joined Sep 2005, 57 posts, RR: 0
Reply 4, posted (7 years 10 months 3 weeks 4 days 4 hours ago) and read 16784 times:

I believe an A389 would actually outsell the A388 if and when it became available. The A389 would have almost unbeatable CASM, provided it is fitted with the most up-to-date (ie Genx or later) engines. At the end of the day, any airline flying a 744 or A388 will be willing to take the jump to A389, as it will offer more payload capacity for the same operating economics and better CASM. That is my 2 cents. Of course, Airbus is not in a position to lauch the A389 any time soon, and they would be well-advised to make sure the A350 goes off as planned before sinking more resources into the A380.

User currently offlineTeamAmerica From United States of America, joined Sep 2006, 1761 posts, RR: 23
Reply 5, posted (7 years 10 months 3 weeks 4 days 4 hours ago) and read 16681 times:

Quoting UA777300ER (Reply 2):
If the additional cost for developping the -900 is low enough to be covered by only a limitted number of orders, than demand doesn't need to be that high. Boeing has sold a couple of plane variants (747SP, 767-400ER, 757-300) that didn't sell very well, but could nevertheless be profitable.

This is true, but the question remains whether or not Airbus could get that many orders (I'd guess 40 to make it worthwhile). The cases you cited were all aircraft sized within the realm of experience, but an A389 would be bigger than big. Most of the A388 customers are putting in far fewer seats than the aircraft could accomodate, so I find it hard to see the demand for an even larger aircraft.



Failure is not an option; it's an outcome.
User currently offlineUA777300ER From Belgium, joined Jun 2006, 96 posts, RR: 0
Reply 6, posted (7 years 10 months 3 weeks 4 days 4 hours ago) and read 16646 times:

Quoting TeamAmerica (Reply 5):
This is true, but the question remains whether or not Airbus could get that many orders (I'd guess 40 to make it worthwhile). The cases you cited were all aircraft sized within the realm of experience, but an A389 would be bigger than big. Most of the A388 customers are putting in far fewer seats than the aircraft could accomodate, so I find it hard to see the demand for an even larger aircraft.

I was also thinking about 30-40 to break even. I don't know the exact break-down of the EK order, but I was under the impression that they wanted a big chunk of those to be -900's. If true, that would already be a big boost.

Greetz
Tom


User currently offlineStitch From United States of America, joined Jul 2005, 30989 posts, RR: 86
Reply 7, posted (7 years 10 months 3 weeks 4 days 4 hours ago) and read 16643 times:
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Quoting RedFlyer (Thread starter):
I don't doubt there's a demand for an A389-sized aircraft. But beyond EK, is there anyone else out there that would fly it even if there were no issues with EIS of the existing model?

Certain routes will undoubtedly support larger A380s. The A389 might very well offer the compelling CASM benefits the A388 was supposed to before the 748/A350/787 entered the picture and undermined it. It is conceivable that the entire A388 fleet would be updated to the A389 (which is what FX is hoping for to get plenty of "A388ACFs"). It would also allow them to upgauge to meet increasing traffic without having to add frequencies just as the A388 is letting them do so with their 744s.

Quoting TeamAmerica (Reply 5):
The cases you cited were all aircraft sized within the realm of experience, but an A389 would be bigger than big. Most of the A388 customers are putting in far fewer seats than the aircraft could accomodate, so I find it hard to see the demand for an even larger aircraft.

Yet those premium cabins take up a great deal of space. If premium travel remains strong in terms of revenues, airlines would like to be able to add more of it while still keeping largish Premium and Standard Economy cabins to maximize RASM.


User currently offlinePlaneHunter From Germany, joined Mar 2006, 6808 posts, RR: 77
Reply 8, posted (7 years 10 months 3 weeks 4 days 4 hours ago) and read 16610 times:

Quoting RedFlyer (Thread starter):
A380-900 Will Never Sell

Where's the question mark?


PH



Nothing's worse than flying the same reg twice!
User currently offlineAlessandro From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 9, posted (7 years 10 months 3 weeks 4 days 4 hours ago) and read 16571 times:

Depends on the track-record of the A388 I say, it´s saying back in 1970 the B744 wouldn´t sell because so few orders of the B741.

User currently offlineKaneporta1 From Greece, joined May 2005, 740 posts, RR: 12
Reply 10, posted (7 years 10 months 3 weeks 4 days 4 hours ago) and read 16570 times:

Quoting RedFlyer (Thread starter):
I keep seeing posts by A.Net members about the importance of Airbus devleoping the A389. Other than EK, which mentioned (off-the-cuff) a desire for the stretch model SIX years ago, has anyone else expressed a desire for the stretch? Does anyone REALLY believe with WhaleJet sales as slow as they are that somehow, by sheer magic, a stretch version will sell any better? Do people really think the true "sweet spot" in VLA demand is to leap over the 400 - 600 pax sized market and go straight to 650+ passengers?

I don't doubt there's a demand for an A389-sized aircraft. But beyond EK (do they still even want the plane in that size?), is there anyone else out there that would fly it even if there were no issues with EIS of the existing model?

Go back to 1969, and replace A380 with 747 in your post. Hindsight is such a great thing...



I'd rather die peacefully in my sleep, like my grandfather, not terrified and screaming, like his passengers
User currently offlineStitch From United States of America, joined Jul 2005, 30989 posts, RR: 86
Reply 11, posted (7 years 10 months 3 weeks 4 days 4 hours ago) and read 16489 times:
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Quoting Kaneporta1 (Reply 10):
Go back to 1969, and replace A380 with 747 in your post. Hindsight is such a great thing...

In 1969, no commercial airliner could fly anywhere near as far as the 747-100. Today, the 747-400, 747-8I, 777-300ER, 777-200LR, A340-500 and A340-600 will all get close or exceed the range of the A380-800.

In 1969, no commercial airliner offered anywhere near the CASM of the 747-100. Today, the 747-8I is expected to be as good or better and the 787 and A350 families are expected to exceed it by a good margin.

In 1969, no commercial airliner could carry anywhere near as many folks as the 747-100. That remains the case today with the A380-800, however the 747-8I is a lot closer to the A388 then the 707 and DC-8 were to the 741.


User currently offlineRJ111 From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 12, posted (7 years 10 months 3 weeks 4 days 4 hours ago) and read 16475 times:

It probably won't weigh (OEW) a lot more (relatively) than the A388 but it will have a lot more capacity. Similar to the A318/ A319 scenario - the difference being the A319 has a proven market.

It not as ridiculous an idea as you may think but i'd say it's too early to answer the question. Though a great time to ask it!


User currently offlineTeamAmerica From United States of America, joined Sep 2006, 1761 posts, RR: 23
Reply 13, posted (7 years 10 months 3 weeks 4 days 4 hours ago) and read 16447 times:

Quoting Hotelbravo (Reply 4):
A389 would have almost unbeatable CASM, provided it is fitted with the most up-to-date (ie Genx or later) engines. At the end of the day, any airline flying a 744 or A388 will be willing to take the jump to A389, as it will offer more payload capacity for the same operating economics and better CASM.

It would indeed have the lowest CASM ever, but the airline has to ask if it can fill all those seats without dilluting revenues.

Quoting Stitch (Reply 7):
Yet those premium cabins take up a great deal of space. If premium travel remains strong in terms of revenues, airlines would like to be able to add more of it while still keeping largish Premium and Standard Economy cabins to maximize RASM.

True, but it seems to me that the A388 has that niche covered. Any airline that has unmet demand for premium seats would simply sacrifice some economy space. I'm not optimistic about the longterm economic outlook, which makes me skeptical about continued growth in premium demand.



Failure is not an option; it's an outcome.
User currently offlineStitch From United States of America, joined Jul 2005, 30989 posts, RR: 86
Reply 14, posted (7 years 10 months 3 weeks 4 days 4 hours ago) and read 16419 times:
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Quoting TeamAmerica (Reply 13):
It would indeed have the lowest CASM ever, but the airline has to ask if it can fill all those seats without diluting revenues.

If total traffic continues to rise, the demand curve should support the larger plane just as it has the A388 vs. the 744/748 (for some customers).

Quoting TeamAmerica (Reply 13):
True, but it seems to me that the A388 has that niche covered. Any airline that has unmet demand for premium seats would simply sacrifice some economy space. I'm not optimistic about the long-term economic outlook, which makes me skeptical about continued growth in premium demand.

When each Business Class seat brings in close to 10x what an Economy seat brings in (per statements by the airlines), it's no wonder they keep spending hundreds of millions every few years rolling out new products to try and one-up each other.

But yes, if total demand starts to shrink, smaller planes would become more viable.


User currently offlineKaneporta1 From Greece, joined May 2005, 740 posts, RR: 12
Reply 15, posted (7 years 10 months 3 weeks 4 days 4 hours ago) and read 16388 times:

Quoting Stitch (Reply 11):
.

1969...
Air travel demand was growing
The oil crisis was becoming a reality
Terrorism was on the uprise
Boeing came up with an airplane that so many thought it was excessive, and that would be as big as an airplane could get. But then it got bigger. And bigger.

20 years from now, the A389 will be necessary for plenty of airlines as demand for air travel grows bigger.



I'd rather die peacefully in my sleep, like my grandfather, not terrified and screaming, like his passengers
User currently offlineOsiris30 From Barbados, joined Sep 2006, 3192 posts, RR: 25
Reply 16, posted (7 years 10 months 3 weeks 4 days 4 hours ago) and read 16367 times:

Stitch:

 checkmark .. it's amazing how often those points are lost on the folks here. The 747's size was the last reason it was successful.



I don't care what you think of my opinion. It's my opinion, so have a nice day :)
User currently offlineStitch From United States of America, joined Jul 2005, 30989 posts, RR: 86
Reply 17, posted (7 years 10 months 3 weeks 4 days 4 hours ago) and read 16366 times:
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Quoting Kaneporta1 (Reply 15):
1969...
Air travel demand was growing
The oil crisis was becoming a reality
Terrorism was on the uprise
Boeing came up with an airplane that so many thought it was excessive, and that would be as big as an airplane could get. But then it got bigger. And bigger.

And then it started to get attacked from below, first by the DC-10 and L-1011 and later by the A340 and 777 and overall sales began to shrink.

I'm not arguing the A389 will not sell nor that it will not be necessary.

What I am arguing is that much of what made the 747-100 unique and special in 1969 does not apply to the A380-800 in 2009. And those "unique and special" things that directly contributed to strong 747 sales may very well not directly contribute to strong A380 sales. The A380 will need to create her own "unique and special" things to ensure strong sales.


User currently offlineZvezda From Lithuania, joined Aug 2004, 10511 posts, RR: 64
Reply 18, posted (7 years 10 months 3 weeks 4 days 4 hours ago) and read 16340 times:

Quoting TeamAmerica (Reply 13):
It would indeed have the lowest CASM ever

Yes, it would.

Quoting TeamAmerica (Reply 13):
but the airline has to ask if it can fill all those seats without dilluting revenues.

RASM would definitely drop on each and every possible route from the A380-800 to A380-900. The question the airlines will have to ask is not whether or not revenue would be diluted (it certainly would, as a consequence of the price elasticity of demand), but rather would the reduction in CASM exceed the reduction in RASM, with the increased market risk factored in.


User currently offlineMEA-707 From Netherlands, joined Nov 1999, 4328 posts, RR: 35
Reply 19, posted (7 years 10 months 3 weeks 4 days 4 hours ago) and read 16306 times:

The A380-800 is clearly too short and stubby for its wings, I am sure the CASM of a A380-900 will be spectacularly better, especially if they incorporate future technology (engines, lighter materials)


nobody has ever died from hard work, but why take the risk?
User currently offlineSupa7E7 From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 20, posted (7 years 10 months 3 weeks 4 days 4 hours ago) and read 16274 times:

Quoting Kaneporta1 (Reply 15):
20 years from now, the A389 will be necessary for plenty of airlines as demand for air travel grows bigger.

Agreed. People tend to forget about India and China. The population of BOM for example, just huge. BOM-LHR is a huge market and will only grow.

PEK-CDG, same thing. Huge and will triple someday. PEK-NYC, we are talking quadruple in future years.

Today's A388 is reminiscent of the Boeing 741, an impressive bird that has not developed into its mature self (which were the 742 and especially 744).

Airbus knows how to refine their products. The A380 will be improved, lightened, enlarged, and probably repowered too.


User currently offlineKaneporta1 From Greece, joined May 2005, 740 posts, RR: 12
Reply 21, posted (7 years 10 months 3 weeks 4 days 4 hours ago) and read 16272 times:

Quoting Stitch (Reply 17):
I'm not arguing the A389 will not sell nor that it will not be necessary.

The title of the initial post suggests otherwise (I know it was not you).
My point isn't that the A380 is special. My point is, like the 741 and the necessity to grow into the 748 in 35 years, the A380 will probably need to grow, to meet future air travel demand. Just like the 747 did.

[Edited 2006-10-30 20:58:58]


I'd rather die peacefully in my sleep, like my grandfather, not terrified and screaming, like his passengers
User currently offlineRedFlyer From United States of America, joined Feb 2005, 4329 posts, RR: 28
Reply 22, posted (7 years 10 months 3 weeks 4 days 4 hours ago) and read 16207 times:

Quoting Rpaillard (Reply 3):
Sounds like so far a contradiction for me.

No contradiction. There's always a demand for ANYTHING. The issue is, does the demand reach the bar of becoming commercially viable? By way of example, right now my business has a need for a very specific and unusual software application. There are no COTS solutions currently available. Does that mean I wouldn't buy one if it became available? No, I most certainly would. But does that mean anyone who develops it will make money? Certainly not as there is only one company (mine) that has a need for it.

Quoting PlaneHunter (Reply 8):
Where's the question mark?

Why is there a question mark needed? In my opinion, the stretch will never sell.

Quoting Alessandro (Reply 9):
it´s saying back in 1970 the B744 wouldn´t sell because so few orders of the B741.

By 1970, after only five years of sales, the 747 had accumulated 198 orders for the 747, and in an era when air traffic was about 1/4 of what it is today (try comparing that with the A380). Moreover, Boeing was already designing different variations in order to meet demand. The only factor was they had to wait for more powerful engines.

Quoting Kaneporta1 (Reply 10):
Go back to 1969, and replace A380 with 747 in your post

By 1969, after only four years of sales, the 747 had accumulated 178 orders for the 747, and in an era when air traffic was about 1/4 of what it is today (try comparing that with the A380). Moreover, Boeing was already designing different variations in order to meet demand. The only factor was they had to wait for more powerful engines.

It's one thing to build expansion capability into your airframe. It's quite another for our esteemed A.Net brethren to tout, as they so often seem to do, "the A389 is the real plane that the A380 is meant to be" or "Airbus needs to develop the A389"...or some variation of those comments. The fact is, the world's airlines are not beating down Airbus' door to get their hands on the existing model. I doubt they will exert too much effort for the stretch version.

[edit: typo]

[Edited 2006-10-30 21:06:23]


My other home is a Piper Cherokee 180C
User currently offlineSupa7E7 From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 23, posted (7 years 10 months 3 weeks 4 days 3 hours ago) and read 16145 times:

Quoting RedFlyer (Reply 22):
"the A389 is the real plane that the A380 is meant to be"

Some of us believe exactly that. You could be right too. We'll just have to see.


User currently offlineKaneporta1 From Greece, joined May 2005, 740 posts, RR: 12
Reply 24, posted (7 years 10 months 3 weeks 4 days 3 hours ago) and read 16108 times:

Quoting RedFlyer (Reply 22):
By 1969, after only four years of sales, the 747 had accumulated 178 orders for the 747, and in an era when air traffic was about 1/4 of what it is today (try comparing that with the A380). Moreover, Boeing was already designing different variations in order to meet demand.

And how exactly do you know that air travel today isn't 1/4 of what it will be in 2041?



I'd rather die peacefully in my sleep, like my grandfather, not terrified and screaming, like his passengers
25 Post contains images Stitch : But must all Indians first fly to BOM? And must they all go to LHR to get to London? I agree current Chinese and Indian "gateway hubs" will be big, b
26 RedFlyer : 20 years from now, when the the A380 will be 27 years old, it and its stretch will be obsolete (I'm not saying they won't be flying; just that their
27 PlaneHunter : The thread title suggests something else than simply an opinion. PH
28 RedFlyer : If air travel is that huge in 2041 then I can assure you of two things: 1) we will not be traveling hub-to-hub as we know it today -- no hub airport
29 Post contains images Rpaillard : Hi RedFlyer, I've got your point, but I don't think a stretch will be "very specific and unusual" plane, to stay on the analogy. And I truly have your
30 Mariner : Assumptions abound on a.net, often based on static concepts. But the British report on climate change is rocking the (non-US) aviation world. Even Ai
31 Post contains images RedFlyer : Actually, from what others on this forum with more insight have said, the A389 will not cost much to develop. And that is why I said the A380-900 wil
32 Leelaw : IMO, unless Mr. Sperl (Airbus CFO) can present a plausible business case whereby the projected IRR from the program is back over 20% (when the A380 wa
33 Dougloid : I should think not. What you feel in Amboy is scorpions underfoot.
34 Supa7E7 : That kind of thing, putting taxes on Jet-A to pay for carbon credits and/or pollution damage, may increase demand for new jets. If oil goes to $170/b
35 Post contains images Mariner : Yes. That's exactly my point. mariner
36 Post contains images Rpaillard : So you are Guys now ready to bash me regarding Amboy Give me a break, that just the spirit of the west Regards, Raphael
37 Leelaw : ...yet VS just deferred delivery of its 380s for another couple of years. You'd think he'd be doing everything in his power to reduce flight-frequenc
38 Post contains images TeamAmerica : That's THE big question. Between Global Climate Change and Peak Oil (take your pick!) I don't see the growth curve continuing upward indefinitely. We
39 Post contains images Mariner : I suspect, unlike others I do not claim to know, that there is somewhat more to this than meets the eye. Then again, that decison was made before the
40 Post contains images Jacobin777 : ...exactly..the last thing the A380 (and the 747-8) can afford right now is a global synchronised recession.... Take a look at what happened after th
41 TEAtheB : And the A380 has currently taken 159 orders and filled its production line for years to come. Obviously the A380 has got some problems but initial sa
42 Zvezda : Plus 8 for QF and minus 6 for VS, neither of which have had quite all the Is dotted and Ts crossed yet, but both of which are clear.
43 ComeAndGo : …ever heard of increasing airport capacity ? If LHR ends up being too small they'll end up building a brand new airport designed for the traffic fl
44 Art : I don't think dilution will come into it since I foresee a big demand developing over the next decade or so for lowest cost mass transit out of China
45 RedFlyer : Ever hear of EIR's (what they are called here in the U.S., not sure of their moniker in other lands)? Ever hear of environmentalists? Lawsuits? NIMBY
46 Gabypn1992 : First, try to sell the 380-800, and after, you gonna see for the 380-900.
47 Post contains links Mariner : Read more - from British PM Tony Blair - not a famous nimby: http://news.independent.co.uk/uk/this_britain/article1941280.ece Or the New Zealand gove
48 TeamAmerica : The populations of India and China are huge, but the portion that is gaining sufficient affluence to afford long distance air travel is not so big as
49 LTBEWR : There are calculated risks in considering production of the A380-900, just like any other aircraft. To me there is less risk as to the -900 version if
50 BOE773 : Teehee, saying that the -900 stretched will never sell is like telling Wilbur and Orville that their aircraft is a waste of time. My take on the need
51 TeamAmerica : FedEx would love it, but who else? The market for high-priority/low density cargo is lucrative but quite small. Most of the goods from Asia will be t
52 UA777300ER : Maybe for short, domestic flights. Especially in Europe and North America I see a lot of potential for railway traffic. Up to 5-6 years ago, a lot of
53 Zvezda : An A380-900F would have an even more out-of-balance volume to payload ratio than the A380-800F. Except for flowers and small packages, it would carry
54 Dougloid : Yes Raphael. We must pound sense into your head whether you like it or not LOL. Raphael, you didn't grow up in Jersey because if you did you would kn
55 Glideslope : Well, they did their homework on the 800 series. We can see the results.
56 UA777300ER : Their current problems could not have been foreseen when studying the demand for the A380. And I doubt that these problems will have that much effect
57 Post contains links TeamAmerica : I'm happy to tell you that we already have high speed rail on the Washington-Philadelphia-New York-Boston corridor: Amtrak Acela Express This is a tr
58 Zvezda : The biggest problem the WhaleJet has now is the availability of smaller airliners with equal or better range and equal or lower CASM. That could have
59 Xbusman : Here is a law of commercial transportation expounded to me over cocktails one evening by a director of Boeing while discussing the A380. Transportatio
60 Post contains images YULWinterSkies : At the same place as it was back in the days when some where saying "the A380 will never fly" Such as what the 330 is now in regard with the A300 -an
61 Tugger : This brings to mind a question that I have had for awhile now: How does the wing failure at 148% factor in to the larger -900 variant (and larger var
62 WingedMigrator : The EADS board would be looking at return on incremental investment, i.e. how many more A380 frames would be sold if the A389 was built. It may make
63 Tugger : Thanks WingedMigrator. I had been assuming that Airbus would simply do the same as they had to for the main certification. Demonstrate through establ
64 AvObserver : I see reasonable prospects for the A389 in Asia as a domestic people hauler. It won't need to have such great range within China's or Japan's airspace
65 RedFlyer : The difference is the 737 and the 747 were already successful products when Boeing decided to upgrade them in order to keep them competitive. This en
66 ComeAndGo : No, I'm not. In Paris they're already talking about a replacement airport for CDG. Look at Denver. Airports are moved to open fields in the middle of
67 BOE773 : CDG is the most potentially expandable superhub in Europe.
68 BOE773 : Where oh where pray tell on this island? Do a good Google sat. shot and you will come up empty handed.
69 Eaglewarrior : I agree. If they build it out of composites and put new generation engines, then it could be successful.
70 WingedMigrator : You can't take a metal airframe and simply build it out of composites. That would entail a completely different design and a completely different set
71 Scramjetter : I don't know why Airbus didn't just start with something the size of the -900. I understand that it is trying to accommodate airlines that are sitting
72 Leelaw : It depends on whether the incremental investment generates enough additional sales over and above the current break-even point of 420 units to make t
73 Johnny : Lufthansa shows big interest in it. For their Europe-India-Routes they would like to have it now!!!
74 Zvezda : You're right. It's too bad Airbus didn't build an airliner with two full cargo decks and three full passenger decks. It could have carried LD3s on th
75 Post contains images Astuteman : If you mean on the current site of LHR - possibly (but unlikely) I can't for the life of me see anywhere within a 40-50 mile radius of central London
76 Joni : "Never" is a long time.
77 Zvezda : The sales window is finite in duration. Try to order a B757 from Boeing.
78 Cobra27 : I guess they should made around 100 seat A350 and call it A350SP? This topic is way off really. I thought you had some arguments for posting it.....
79 Post contains images Glideslope : So why do my threads get yanked when I make this exact statement? Any Mods care to comment?
80 Post contains images MBJ2000 : I ask myself the same question. I think people make the mistake of judging the capabilities of the A388 wing by looking at its proportions. I persona
81 ImperialEagle : IMO the A389 is exactly what that aircraft should be. The Asian market and the Indian market could certainly make good use of an "SR" model. As the wo
82 PEK18R36L : Probably. But the push on this side of the water at the moment is for a direct flights to more international destinations. Ex-PEK pax want direct fli
83 TeamAmerica : Not my intention to disregard China or India, I just think there is something of an unrealistic expectation when people look at the size of the popul
84 Post contains links NYC777 : According to ATW there may be another delay to the A380 of three months!!! http://atwonline.com/news/story.html?storyID=6932 At least it's not another
85 RJ111 : The wing was specifically designed to require minor enhancements for the A389, thus the A388 is heavier than it needs to be. This decision could well
86 Rpaillard : So you plan to post it everywhere?
87 OldAeroGuy : Then Airbus saddled with A388 needless wing area. The current A388 wing loading is so low that an MTOW increase or stretch is practically a requireme
88 Distanthorizon : Oh no, another guy trying to stick with the "Whalejet" nickname... Anyway: the A380 sales are not slow. Giving the production problems, Airbus does no
89 Post contains images RedFlyer : 159 orders over 6 1/2 years is slow. Of course. I'm sure they were sorely disappointed Qantas placed an order last week for 8 frames. So you mean a y
90 Post contains images DistantHorizon : No, it isn't. Many airliners will not comite themselves until they see the plane operating. And do you now how many 747's were sold before the first
91 OldAeroGuy : And did the 747 take over 7 years from first order to first delivery? I'll give you a clue: it was a lot less.
92 Zvezda : LH also. That's probably all though. That would be a surprise. Which airline do you have in mind?
93 Stitch : I wonder if the 787-3, which serves this role for Japan, would not serve this role for China and India. It will be able to fly to far more Indian and
94 Jacobin777 : AWTonline.com has stated there might be another 3 months delay...
95 NoWorries : Personally, I think that a 20 year competitive life for the A380 with several derivatives is possible only within a relatively “narrow” demand cur
96 Zvezda : Right now, most flights between PEK and PVG/SHA are single-aisle, with a few B767s and A330s. This could go to B787-3 sized aircraft in 5 or 10 years
97 Post contains images Stitch : I'm playing devil's advocate to throw them a bone. Honestly, I don't expect them to go A380, either. If the 787-3 is not big enough, they'll buy 773A
98 Post contains images RedFlyer : The only clue you've given me is that you have no clue what you're talking about. FYI, Boeing sold 178 frames by the end of 1969. The first delivery
99 RJ111 : What's air travel got to do with it? The total demand was smaller but the nature of the market was vastly different. It doesn't mean you should divid
100 RedFlyer : Yes, demand was considerably smaller. As for the nature of the market, don't you think the WhaleJet was built for the market of that era (when all tr
101 Ikramerica : Tell me about it. It's annoying. It's almost as bad as that guy who would post about his company's new staggered seats as the future of air travel in
102 Post contains images Stitch : Honestly we shouldn't compare A388 and B741 sales to each other exactly because the market realities are vastly different, but folks need something t
103 Osiris30 : Don't suppose you have ANYTHING to back that up, huh? So you're suggesting Airbus is beating away customers with a stick? Let's compare relevant time
104 ComeAndGo : Do you realize that many of those 747 orders were placed by government owned airlines ? You can hardly compare the two sale-figures. It's a completel
105 Post contains images Jacobin777 : I prefer this one, but I'll stick with the "A380".....
106 Stitch : And that has exactly what significance?
107 Osiris30 : While I understand why you can't compare the two figures directly, I'm confused by your last statement re EK. What do you mean?
108 Stitch : Only if EK can make money doing so. And even then, only if another carrier can match the conditions EK is using to make money. For example, EK might
109 ComeAndGo : No sir. If Emirates introduces 850 seats in economy to australia, you'll have copycat airlines anywhere in the world doing the same in their own marke
110 Post contains images Stitch : WN's cost structure allowed them to make a profit flying passengers at a fare their competition couldn't. Being forced to match those fares is one of
111 ComeAndGo : Ryanair is not Lufthansa, Easyjet is not British Airways and Air Berlin is not Air France. Existing airlines may have difficulty copying Emirate's all
112 Post contains images Stitch : Laker and People Express both failed. But seriously, I understand your point now. And yes, I imagine most of the world's airlines - even the "Tier On
113 TeamAmerica : The LCC paradigm requires full planes and high utilization. It would be difficult to fill an A380-900 on a Wednesday in February no matter what the f
114 Post contains images Stitch : True. But two 400-seat 787-10's or A350-900's could give an 800-seat EK A388 a run for the money.
115 TeamAmerica : Yes, and one would do even better. All an LCC has to do is nibble away market share; no need to match them seat for seat.
116 RJ111 : I don't think an airline like EK would go for full out LCC A389 moreso have a large section of LC seats but still retain F, Y and arguably an expensiv
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