Sponsor Message:
Civil Aviation Forum
My Starred Topics | Profile | New Topic | Forum Index | Help | Search 
U.S. Airlines Potential 773ER Orders?  
User currently offlineCba From United States of America, joined Jul 2000, 4531 posts, RR: 3
Posted (7 years 10 months 3 weeks 5 days 20 hours ago) and read 3136 times:

This is based purely on speculation. I have seen several threads over the past few weeks inquiring about potential 744 replacements for UAL and NWA. I've also been thinking that, AA, DL and CO may want to expand capacity on some of their much higher yielding international routes.

Adding a small fleet of 773ER's would seem like a logical step for each case. Now, I understand that most U.S. airlines aren't in the financial situation to be purchasing new aircraft right now, and have invested most in the future 787 models.

Anyone think there would be decent odds, say, within the next five years?

20 replies: All unread, jump to last
 
User currently offlineZKNBX From New Zealand, joined Jul 2006, 464 posts, RR: 0
Reply 1, posted (7 years 10 months 3 weeks 5 days 14 hours ago) and read 2959 times:

Who?

UA - will buy the 748i
NW - ditto, eventually
DL - doesn't need an a/c that size
AA - as for DL
CO - don't make me laugh
AC - already a done deal


User currently offlineKaitak744 From United States of America, joined Jul 2005, 2379 posts, RR: 3
Reply 2, posted (7 years 10 months 3 weeks 5 days 14 hours ago) and read 2948 times:

Quoting ZKNBX (Reply 1):
AC - already a done deal

Canada is part of the United States?

Quoting ZKNBX (Reply 1):
UA - will buy the 748i

Actually, I am leaning more towards the 777-300ER on this one. UA is having so much trouble filling their 747-400s.

Quoting ZKNBX (Reply 1):
NW - ditto, eventually

Yea, 747-8s for NRT routes.

Quoting ZKNBX (Reply 1):
DL - doesn't need an a/c that size
AA - as for DL

Well, I wouldn't be too sure. AA could definately use 777-300ERs, especially if they expand more in Asia from the U.S. west cost.

Delta... ditto. 777-300ER when and if they expand in Asia.

Quoting ZKNBX (Reply 1):
CO - don't make me laugh

Yea, probably no 777-300ERs. But maybe 777-200LRs.


User currently offlineN328KF From United States of America, joined May 2004, 6485 posts, RR: 3
Reply 3, posted (7 years 10 months 3 weeks 5 days 14 hours ago) and read 2938 times:

Quoting Kaitak744 (Reply 2):
Canada is part of the United States?

I think it's fair to include them all as one grouping, especially once the airspace is unified.



When they call the roll in the Senate, the Senators do not know whether to answer 'Present' or 'Not guilty.' T.Roosevelt
User currently offlineTomascubero From Costa Rica, joined Jul 2005, 525 posts, RR: 9
Reply 4, posted (7 years 10 months 3 weeks 5 days 14 hours ago) and read 2920 times:

Here's my speculation:

UA - Replace 744 with either 748i or 772LR
CO - Replace old 762 and 752's with 787's, no need for 773ER if they already have 772ER plus the 787's
DA - Like some one said above, they don't need such a big a/c and they are well of with their existing 772ER/LR and 764 fleet.
AA - Most probably buy a hefty ammount of 787 to replace older A300's and 767's, will also probably place an order for some 772LR but not 300ER, too big.
NW - Could be a potential 773ER buyer, but the ideal one for them is the 748i to replace 744.

Just a quick question, what is NW going to replace the DC-10's which are leaving soon in Jan 07?

Of course this is just my  twocents .

Cheers!
Tomas.


User currently offlineZKNBX From New Zealand, joined Jul 2006, 464 posts, RR: 0
Reply 5, posted (7 years 10 months 3 weeks 5 days 14 hours ago) and read 2912 times:

Quoting Tomascubero (Reply 4):
DA - Like some one said above, they don't need such a big a/c and they are well of with their existing 772ER/LR and 764 fleet.

DL probably don't have enought 777s.... certainly not nearly enough to cope with their expansion plans on longer haul routes.

Quoting Tomascubero (Reply 4):
what is NW going to replace the DC-10's which are leaving soon in Jan 07?

NW have already selected (and are operating) their D10 replacement in the form of the A332 and A333. More coming of that type as well.


User currently offlineTomascubero From Costa Rica, joined Jul 2005, 525 posts, RR: 9
Reply 6, posted (7 years 10 months 3 weeks 5 days 14 hours ago) and read 2897 times:

Quoting ZKNBX (Reply 5):
DL probably don't have enought 777s.... certainly not nearly enough to cope with their expansion plans on longer haul routes.

Well yes, but how many LR's did they order again?

Quoting ZKNBX (Reply 5):
NW have already selected (and are operating) their D10 replacement in the form of the A332 and A333. More coming of that type as well.

Ok, thanks for clearing that up mate  Wink.

Cheers!
Tomas.


User currently offlineKaitak744 From United States of America, joined Jul 2005, 2379 posts, RR: 3
Reply 7, posted (7 years 10 months 3 weeks 5 days 13 hours ago) and read 2879 times:

Quoting Tomascubero (Reply 6):
Quoting ZKNBX (Reply 5):
DL probably don't have enought 777s.... certainly not nearly enough to cope with their expansion plans on longer haul routes.

Well yes, but how many LR's did they order again?

How much money do they have again?

In a perfect money world:

787:
AA would have placed an order for 50 + 50 options for 787.
UA, DL, the same.
CO would have placed at least 10 more 787s.
NW would have placed around 10 more as well.

777:
AA would have taken the remaining 777-200ERs (and if they expand in Asia, 777-300ER)
UA would have orderd the 777-300ER
NW would have orderd the 777-300ER (and a DC-9 replacement  Wink)
DL would have ordered more 767-400ERs, 777-200LRs, and 777-300ERs for the possibility of Asia expansion.
CO would have ordered somewhere around 10 777-200LRs.


User currently offlineFlyDreamliner From United States of America, joined Jan 2006, 2759 posts, RR: 15
Reply 8, posted (7 years 10 months 3 weeks 5 days 12 hours ago) and read 2805 times:

Quoting ZKNBX (Reply 1):
DL - doesn't need an a/c that size

That's interesting, seeing as they fill all of their smaller jets on a good number of routes. Also, they have talked a lot about Asian expansion. I would not be surprised to see a fleet of perhaps 8-10 773ERs for DL eventually. DL is growing, the 772 is not the logical top end jet for them.

Quoting ZKNBX (Reply 1):
AA - as for DL

AA does fairly well with their 772ERs, they have a couple routes that may make good use of a 773ER, but their international routes are not the heaviest.

Quoting ZKNBX (Reply 1):
CO - don't make me laugh

Agreed.

Quoting ZKNBX (Reply 1):
NW - ditto, eventually

I think the current 747 fleet will be replaced by 773ERs vs. 748is. With the 787s taking a lot of load pressure off their hubs on Asian routes, the 773ER, with its superior cargo capacity to 748i, will fit NW's DTW and MSP to NRT routes, as well as their heavier inter-asian routes well. Perhaps some of their asian routes could fill a 748, but for most, the 773 + an A332 seems a better option.

Quoting Kaitak744 (Reply 2):
Canada is part of the United States?

Depends on who you ask apparently.

Quoting Tomascubero (Reply 4):
UA - Replace 744 with either 748i or 772LR

hahahaha. No. We'll see UA order the 748i eventually. It fits their pacific route structure almost ideally, with slightly improved capacity and better range (those ORD-HKG flights won't be quite as hairy anymore). The 772LR isn't a very good fit for UA, who really doesn't, nor does not need to run routes longer than a 748i or 772ER can handle.

Quoting Tomascubero (Reply 4):
Just a quick question, what is NW going to replace the DC-10's which are leaving soon in Jan 07?

Airbus A330-300's and A330-200s, depending on the route.

Quoting Kaitak744 (Reply 7):
787:
AA would have placed an order for 50 + 50 options for 787.
UA, DL, the same.
CO would have placed at least 10 more 787s.
NW would have placed around 10 more as well.

AA and DL will end up with nearly 150 787s a piece when all is said an done. AA has a fleet of better than 30 A300-600R's that need to be replaced as well as something like 100 odd 767s, and their 777 fleet is stretched thin at times internationally as well. DL has their gigantic 767 fleet, which will all turn into 787s in time, as well as an ambitious overseas expansion.

Quoting Kaitak744 (Reply 7):
777:
AA would have taken the remaining 777-200ERs (and if they expand in Asia, 777-300ER)
UA would have orderd the 777-300ER
NW would have orderd the 777-300ER (and a DC-9 replacement Wink)
DL would have ordered more 767-400ERs, 777-200LRs, and 777-300ERs for the possibility of Asia expansion.
CO would have ordered somewhere around 10 777-200LRs.

What is CO using 772LR's for? Their 772ER EWR-HKG service shows the 772ER meets all of their needs. That said, they have GE90 powered 772ERs, LR's would be easy enough for them. I see them expanding more with 787s myself.

AA will take more 772ERs, which are plenty big, seeing their lack of success in Asia, but they won't take anything bigger.
NW is well on its way to replacing the DC-9, many have been replaced by A319s, more will be replaced with EMB-195s. NW will eventually send the 744s away in exchange for 773ERs.

DL will take their 777s on order, and will, once money starts to happen again down there in atlanta, order a slew of 787s.



"Let the world change you, and you can change the world"
User currently offlineIkramerica From United States of America, joined May 2005, 21532 posts, RR: 59
Reply 9, posted (7 years 10 months 3 weeks 5 days 11 hours ago) and read 2770 times:

I think only 3 class carriers in the USA are the only real candidates for the 748i and 77W. So that's AA and UA. AA will not fly a 747, and their 777s are RR powered, so I think they will continue to expand with frequency rather than size, with the 787 RR powered into the future.

UA could be a candidate for both the 77W and 748i to go with a 787 order, all GE powered. When they have the money. If they have the money.



Of all the things to worry about... the Wookie has no pants.
User currently offlineUAL777UK From United Kingdom, joined Nov 2005, 3356 posts, RR: 1
Reply 10, posted (7 years 10 months 3 weeks 5 days 11 hours ago) and read 2726 times:

Quoting Kaitak744 (Reply 2):
Actually, I am leaning more towards the 777-300ER on this one. UA is having so much trouble filling their 747-400s.

You have got to laugh at that comment, where in the world did you hear that rubbish. You been on a UA 747 lately to Asia or for that matter to Europe when they are flying there. They are packed to the gills!!  banghead 


User currently offlineMrComet From Ireland, joined Mar 2005, 550 posts, RR: 8
Reply 11, posted (7 years 10 months 3 weeks 5 days 10 hours ago) and read 2706 times:

Quoting ZKNBX (Reply 1):
UA - will buy the 748i
NW - ditto, eventually
DL - doesn't need an a/c that size
AA - as for DL
CO - don't make me laugh
AC - already a done deal

I guess this means that the only US non-cargo airlines likely to ever consider buying the A380 are UAL and NW but since they too are trending toward smaller planes it looks like a long term shut out for Airbus in the states.



The dude abides
User currently offlineJfk777 From United States of America, joined Aug 2006, 8375 posts, RR: 7
Reply 12, posted (7 years 10 months 3 weeks 5 days 1 hour ago) and read 2459 times:
Support Airliners.net - become a First Class Member!

773ER for UA, NW, CO and AA seem natural. To say the 772ER or 787 will compensate for lack of capacity is foolish. Especially for NRT and LHR operations 773ER are a better match then 772er's.

User currently offlineNASCARAirforce From United States of America, joined Feb 2005, 3178 posts, RR: 4
Reply 13, posted (7 years 10 months 3 weeks 5 days 1 hour ago) and read 2447 times:

AA - probably most likely of American carriers to take the 773, although it would be in a small quantity. Maybe on routes to LHR or NRT, otherwise I see them getting the 787 for most everything else to replace the 767s and expansions elsewhere that 767s can't reach - ie ICN, PEK etc.

CO - Nope

DL - I doubt it, did they even take all of their 772 order yet? I don't see a need for the 773 with them

NW - Highly unlikely, they will keep the 744s for 30 years like they did the DC-9s and DC-10s. The 744s, most are only halfway through their life with NW, while some are only a couple years old. NW would only need the 744s for their NRT routes, everything else in Asia coming from DTW, LAX or wherever else will be done with the 787. Northwest I think too would order about 10 747-8s eventually when the 747-400s get to their 30-year mark.

UA - I think they will use a mix of 747-400s, and some replacement 747-8s down the road, longer range 777-200s and eventually 787s for the long thin routes and 767 replacements

US - NEVER


User currently offlineSLCUT2777 From United States of America, joined Dec 2005, 4068 posts, RR: 11
Reply 14, posted (7 years 10 months 3 weeks 5 days ago) and read 2359 times:

Quoting MrComet (Reply 11):
I guess this means that the only US non-cargo airlines likely to ever consider buying the A380 are UAL and NW but since they too are trending toward smaller planes it looks like a long term shut out for Airbus in the states.

US for sure and to some extent NW are the only serious Airbus airlines in the USA. AA wants to completely divest themselves sooner than later, even though UA seams content to continue with the A320 as is AC. F9 and B6 being the only serious LCC's.
As for the future of the 777 and 787 Boeing wide-bodies I offer my  twocents 
AC: Done Deal, taking delivery of 1st 777s shortly, 787 forthcoming in 2009, 2010
AA: 787 order likely forthcoming to start replacing 762ERs which are all approaching 20 years old. 773 not very likely.
CO: 787 order in place, and 772LR order quite likely depending in part on how well DL and AC like them. 773 isn't likely as is any return to any 747s.
DL: Additional 772s firmed up with Boeing including some 772LRs and definite. more of the 772LR quite likely given international expansion ambitions. 773 is doubtful, but some possibility exits on high yield Europe routes for starters, but could be needed on Asia routes later. 787 order will come upon BK-exit, similar to how AC did theirs last year just after their BK exit.
NW: 787 order coming in 2008, 10 for starters. Probably wish they had gone with the 772/773 rather than the A332/A333. Could go with 773 IF they decide against 748. No to any A380s!
UA: Eventually a 787 order to start replacing aging 767 fleet, but no new a/c for a period while they are under such a contractual post-BK order for no new a/c.



DELTA Air Lines; The Only Way To Fly from Salt Lake City; Let the Western Heritage always be with Delta!
User currently offlineWalter747 From United States of America, joined Oct 2006, 1440 posts, RR: 4
Reply 15, posted (7 years 10 months 3 weeks 5 days ago) and read 2349 times:

Quoting NASCARAirforce (Reply 13):
US - NEVER

definetley they're fine with their airbus products. We don't know if they'll choose th 787 or the 350 seeing how things are moving at airbus.

AA could use the 773ER
DL getting their 772LR's
UA they'llprobably go to the 748i
NW defenitley not their fine with the A330's and they will eventually get the 748i and som 787's



Hussel, Hussel, Husel, Grind, Grind, Grind
User currently offlineSolnabo From Sweden, joined Jan 2008, 852 posts, RR: 2
Reply 16, posted (7 years 10 months 3 weeks 4 days 23 hours ago) and read 2255 times:

What routes for DL´s 772-LR and how many of them? Btw, DL still in limbo with Ch 11?

Micke//   

[Edited 2006-10-31 22:08:53]


Airbus SAS - Love them both
User currently offlineSLCUT2777 From United States of America, joined Dec 2005, 4068 posts, RR: 11
Reply 17, posted (7 years 10 months 3 weeks 4 days 23 hours ago) and read 2250 times:

Quoting Solnabo (Reply 16):
What routes for DL´s 772-LR and how many of them?

ATL-JNB (starting with 763ER with a stop in DKR for fuel)
JFK-BOM
ATL-PVG (if awarded next year by the DOT)
ATL-SYD (?)
I believe they have firmed up 3 of them for delivery in 2008 with more to come.



DELTA Air Lines; The Only Way To Fly from Salt Lake City; Let the Western Heritage always be with Delta!
User currently offlineSTT757 From United States of America, joined Mar 2000, 16872 posts, RR: 51
Reply 18, posted (7 years 10 months 3 weeks 4 days 22 hours ago) and read 2221 times:

I could see CO order 10 777-300ERs, for routes such as..

EWR-

Tel Aviv 2x, LGW, AMS, BOM

IAH-
LGW 2x, AMS



Eastern Air lines flt # 701, EWR-MCO Boeing 757
User currently offlineWN230 From United States of America, joined Jul 2006, 341 posts, RR: 1
Reply 19, posted (7 years 10 months 3 weeks 4 days 15 hours ago) and read 2022 times:

Quoting ZKNBX (Reply 1):
AA - as for DL

They could expand more in Shanghai from SFO and LAX.

WN230



Judas Priest North American tour in '08 . . . cannot wait!!!
User currently offlineCentrair From Japan, joined Jan 2005, 3598 posts, RR: 20
Reply 20, posted (7 years 10 months 3 weeks 4 days 13 hours ago) and read 1936 times:

Not sure about the other US carriers but I think that the 773ER would be good for NRT.

They have a huge order for 787s: 18 plus 50+ options. That is enough to increase frequency and add non-stops to many locations throughout asia allowing them to overfly Japan.

By reducing the Japan stop on many routes, they may not need the capacity of a 748i. The 773ER could handle the capacity with frequency from DTW, MSP and LAX while NGO and KIX could pick up slack with 787s having frequency. Otherwise HKG, ICN can become non-stops w/ frequency from DTW, MSP or SEA. If they decrease the need for the Japan stop, they do not need such large frequency in my opinion.

Of all the inter-Asia routes that really need the capacity only MNL comes to mind. NW has DTW-NGO-MNL and MSP-NRT-MNL. These planes a full of Filipinos. But even this could be reduced with say SEA-MNL non-stop on a 787 combined with frequent 787s either through Japan or maybe to another US gateway like PDX.

IMO With more carriers plying the pacific, the routes will fracture and the need for the massive capacity will decrease.

Again I don't think I can really speak for other US carriers. But NW could use the 773ER. (The 777 is in the Pilot contract as well.)



Yes...I am not a KIX fan. Let's Japanese Aviation!
Top Of Page
Forum Index

This topic is archived and can not be replied to any more.

Printer friendly format

Similar topics:More similar topics...
Russia WTO Agreement - Potential Aircraft Orders? posted Sun Nov 19 2006 18:03:12 by PlanenutzTB
Regional Airlines With Outstanding Orders posted Sat Sep 17 2005 23:23:19 by Flyf15
Any Potential 7E7 Orders From Latin America. posted Fri Jan 7 2005 18:45:05 by Juventus
Singapore Airlines Opts 773ER,delay 7E7 Decision posted Tue Aug 24 2004 02:42:49 by 9V-SVC
Which Airlines Are Already Orders With A380? posted Sat May 22 2004 00:50:54 by ScottysAir
Unidentified 773ER Orders? posted Mon Apr 19 2004 23:12:44 by AA787
Which Airlines Have Firm Orders On The AirbusA380? posted Tue Feb 25 2003 18:12:53 by Bobcat
China Airlines Delaying A330 Orders posted Sun Dec 8 2002 21:42:59 by Bigo747
Alaska Airlines Potential posted Mon Jul 9 2001 01:59:21 by Jetlover50
Potential American Airlines 787 Livery Dilemma posted Sat Oct 28 2006 21:03:29 by Hrhf1