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Help With Website For Predicting Aircraft Crash.  
User currently offlineAI From United Kingdom, joined Dec 2005, 318 posts, RR: 0
Posted (8 years 1 month 2 weeks 3 days 22 hours ago) and read 4393 times:

hi guys,
in early 2001 i had come across a website where you had to enter your routing, date & the airline you were flying with & it would come up with a predicted probability of your flight crashing.
i am not sure how very scientific it was (probably not a lot) but nevertheless i did find it interesting. i dont remember the name of that website nor can i find it on searching various engines.
has anyone here come across something similar ?

AI.

7 replies: All unread, jump to last
 
User currently offlineCadet57 From United States of America, joined Jul 2005, 9085 posts, RR: 30
Reply 1, posted (8 years 1 month 2 weeks 3 days 22 hours ago) and read 4394 times:

Why would you even want to see this site? Let alone take anything it says for fact? I guarntee you you plug in Nigeria and got get "You will die in a overloaded 737" but if you plug in Canada you get "You will be ok mate"


Doors open, right hand side, next stop is Springfield.
User currently offlineRedFlyer From United States of America, joined Feb 2005, 4376 posts, RR: 28
Reply 2, posted (8 years 1 month 2 weeks 3 days 21 hours ago) and read 4350 times:

Quoting AI (Thread starter):
it would come up with a predicted probability of your flight crashing.

Are you paranoid or do you just have an obsession with death?  Wink



My other home is a Piper Cherokee 180C
User currently offlineAI From United Kingdom, joined Dec 2005, 318 posts, RR: 0
Reply 3, posted (8 years 1 month 2 weeks 3 days 21 hours ago) and read 4332 times:

Quoting RedFlyer (Reply 2):

neither. i just happened to stumble upon that website & as i mentioned in my original post i dont think its very scientifically based & i wouldnt base any travel decision on the number that website gives me (i havent even visited that website for last 5 years - which is why i cant remember the name ).

AI.


User currently offlineRootsAir From Costa Rica, joined Feb 2005, 4186 posts, RR: 40
Reply 4, posted (8 years 1 month 2 weeks 3 days 21 hours ago) and read 4332 times:

Quoting AI (Reply 3):
e (i havent even visited that website for last 5 years - which is why i cant remember the name ).

i have ehard abut that website. i asled this question a while ago and the website seems to have disappeared



A man without the knowledge of his past history,culture and origins is like a tree without roots
User currently offlineBAxMAN From St. Helena, joined May 2004, 671 posts, RR: 2
Reply 5, posted (8 years 1 month 2 weeks 3 days 21 hours ago) and read 4305 times:

The website you were looking for is 'am i going down.com' (no, not that kind of 'going down'). You selected your dates, airline and route and would then tell you that you had a 99.7675% (or whatever) chance of disappearing from the radar.

Unfortunately, it now seems to have very much gone down unless there is an alternative URL somewhere.

Whether the website was scientific or not, it was incredibly accurate. It correctly worked out that none of the flights I was scheduled to take were destined to end up in the middle of the Atlantic or strewn in many bits across a field.



I need to get laid
User currently offlineBuyantUkhaa From Mongolia, joined May 2004, 2915 posts, RR: 3
Reply 6, posted (8 years 1 month 2 weeks 3 days 16 hours ago) and read 4115 times:

Quoting AI (Thread starter):
i dont remember the name of that website

www.amigoingdown.com, but it no longer exists.

I tried to figure out how it worked, it would look at the statistics per type, airline, country and I think also month of the year (not sure about that one). These would all affect the outcome independently.

So I played around and, if my memory serves me right, it said that if I flew from Quito to Lima in a Nigerian Airlines Tu134 in November (or something along those lines) my likelihood of crashing was about 1:32.000, whereas if I'd fly from Reykjavik to Akureyri in a Finnair A330 in June, my chances of dying were 1:250.000.000.

Not sure anymore about the parameters but quite sure these were the most extreme outcomes I managed to get. Generally, and certainly with realistic input data, it would seem very accurate though. If it wasn't sure (due to lack of data) it would hover around 1:1.000.000 in general.

Quoting BAxMAN (Reply 5):
It correctly worked out that none of the flights I was scheduled to take were destined to end up in the middle of the Atlantic or strewn in many bits across a field.

:D gotta love those ex-post analyses!!!



I scratch my head, therefore I am.
User currently offlineJwenting From Netherlands, joined Apr 2001, 10213 posts, RR: 19
Reply 7, posted (8 years 1 month 2 weeks 3 days 9 hours ago) and read 3972 times:

Of course on a likelihood of 1:1.000.000 a factor 10 isn't going to register much.
Calling the site accurate in such situations is a farce, they might as well always give a random because if you survive you'll think they were right and if you crash and die you're not going to be able to complain  Smile



I wish I were flying
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