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20/20 Vision - The New Irish Aviation Thread!  
User currently offlineKaitak From Ireland, joined Aug 1999, 12324 posts, RR: 35
Posted (7 years 5 months 2 weeks 1 day 8 hours ago) and read 6469 times:

Welcome on board everyone and here's a new Irish Aviation Thread.

Things are happening pretty quickly now and the virtual concession of defeat by Ryanair makes life particularly interesting, particularly because Aer Lingus has come out of it quite well. Indeed, it may well come to be seen as a significant error in FR's strategy. Is this it? Could he not have seen this in advance and while he harrumphs and blusters, the truth of the matter is that his plan has failed. What next? Just being a minority shareholder. Aer Lingus can even use that to its advantage and it can USE FR to get better deals and hopefully, to work with it to some extent in developing its long haul routes. I may be wrong in this, but I cannot see how this position can be seen as a plus for FR. They've spent €300m on a 20% (roughly) stake in a significant competitor and not only can they not sell without a loss, but they can't compete as aggressively as they might without endangering that stake.

The other issues mosey on pretty much as usual with not much happening:
- Still no word on Open Skies or the US approach to foreign ownership; however, I suspect today's events in the US might colour this, in that if the Democrats take control of the House, that could make life a lot harder. They may put the brakes on Open Skies altogether. What then for EI and increased US access?
- Dublin Airport; rumours of major cargo developments, but not much evidence of action.
- Environmental issues; how will the Irish govt seek to balance the gains from aviation against the environmental threat; will we see the Greens and other environmental groups making this a significant issue?
- Any Other Business?

So, here we go folks; Flaps 20, brakes released and throttles to the firewall ...

88 replies: All unread, showing first 25:
 
User currently offlineN328KF From United States of America, joined May 2004, 6482 posts, RR: 3
Reply 1, posted (7 years 5 months 2 weeks 1 day 8 hours ago) and read 6457 times:

I don't see where Ryanair conceded defeat. They were rebuffed by Aer Lingus' board, but where is the actual concession speech?


When they call the roll in the Senate, the Senators do not know whether to answer 'Present' or 'Not guilty.' T.Roosevelt
User currently offlinePoitin From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 2, posted (7 years 5 months 2 weeks 1 day 8 hours ago) and read 6442 times:

For the fun of it, I pulled the H1 2007 numbers of FR. While his costs are going up, his profit is too. Even with the E250 he put into EI, he has more than made it up in H1 profits.


Half Year Ended -----Sept 30, 2005----- Sept 30,2006 -------% Increase
Passengers -------------- 18.0m---------------------22.1m-------------23%
Revenue------------------ €946.2m ---------------€1,256.4m------------33%
Profit after Tax ---------- €237m ---------------- €329m---------------39%

    Staff costs have increased by 36% to €113.8m. This primarily reflects a 31% increase in average employee numbers to 3,768 and the impact of pay increases granted during the period. Employee numbers rose due to an increase in our aircraft crewing ratios as a result of continued increases in sector length. Pilots, who earn higher than the average salary, accounted for 42% of the increase in employment during the period.


Quoting Kaitak (Reply 126):
In fairness, I doubt very much if all of these extra people are "filing clerks"?!

I was only repeating the words of MOL. They are GA employees, however, whatever their title.

Quoting Kaitak (Reply 126):
BUT the one thing EI has in its favour right now is that it has a €300m insurance policy which FR has kindly taken out on them. I

I didn't know that! When did FR get into the insurance business? And if you are thinking of the money MOL invested in EI, it is about E 250 million. He has 103 Million shares at an average of E2.43. However, he still makes money if the stock is at E 2.44. I do not see that being an insurance policy for anything -- except MOL having a basis for a later take over bid. What you are missing is MOL can let what happens happen, and then take it over.

Quoting Kaitak (Reply 126):

MO'L meanwhile has announced - as reported in the Sydney Morning Herald (strewth!) that Aer Lingus is doomed and that in five years' time it will still be a small regional carrier carrying 8m pax, while FR is carrying 80m. Here it is anyway ...

MOL is such an optimist. Must be the money he has put into EI causing him to see such rosy numbers. As an independent airline, EI will go down for the count unless there is a massive restructuring, which SIPTU will not allow.

As for reaching 80 million PAX, FR is on that run rate and then some.

Quoting Kaitak (Reply 126):
We may see MO'L as entertaining in his comments, but not all Europeans share our sense of humour and his often direct and tactless comments may end up only spurring those opponents of aviation into action.

While I too find MOL as annoying, may I point out that they are still lining up to fly on his airplanes in every increasing numbers.

Quoting Kaitak (Thread starter):
Aer Lingus can even use that to its advantage and it can USE FR to get better deals and hopefully, to work with it to some extent in developing its long haul routes.

Why do you think this? MOL could just as easily sit down and smile, which is what I think he will do. DM has well and truly cooked his goose with MOL, and MOL will try to oust him. Although he has only 20% of the stock, he does have 20% of the stock and so will end up with a board seat.


User currently offlineKaitak From Ireland, joined Aug 1999, 12324 posts, RR: 35
Reply 3, posted (7 years 5 months 2 weeks 1 day 7 hours ago) and read 6412 times:

Quoting Poitin (Reply 2):
Why do you think this? MOL could just as easily sit down and smile, which is what I think he will do. DM has well and truly cooked his goose with MOL, and MOL will try to oust him. Although he has only 20% of the stock, he does have 20% of the stock and so will end up with a board seat.

He could, but he's a shareholder; he wants to see the value of his shareholding increase. Why should he sit down and sit back; if he's spent this amount of money, why not make it work. If SF and the DUP can work together, so can DM and MO'L and FR/EI; sure, DM said in the past that he can conceive of no situation where the airlines would work together, he was at pains not to get into any personal invective or offence and MO'L has paid tribute to EI's management too - albeit obliquely, so I think the door is not closed. Both are in business at the end of the day; if I told you last week that BE and BA would work together or indeed, that many unlikely alliances would come to pass, you mightn't have believed it before, but at the end of the day, pride doesn't and can't come into it. If there is a logic to working together, both men and both airlines will be sufficiently mature to make it happen.

I do agree, to a certain extent, with what MO'L is saying, in that EI does need to change its ways, but it has in the past - far more dramatically than it needs to now and I think, ultimately, that its employees know it needs to change. There are undoubtedly challenges for both airlines, but I think there is room for EI to grow and of course, there's lots of room for FR to do so. I think that the FR shareholding in EI makes it less likely that FR will (as I had feared in the past) hound EI at every step, route by route and that has to be good for EI. MO'L has a lot more markets to make life difficult for other, far more bloated, EU state carriers, such as AZ, OA, IB, SK etc.

As for t/a routes, let's just assume for a moment that EI did place an order with Boeing (or Airbus) for a large fleet of new long haulers, but didn't work with FR and FR could prove that, had it done so, it could have made major savings, particularly if it ordered a larger number. What, additionally, if EI, because its vision isn't quite what FR's is, does not take full advantage of the whole O/S issue? What happens then; it's not just MO'L who'll be screaming; it will be the other s/holders too, including (potentially) the govt. So, in that sense, it makes sense for both airlines (at the very least) not to close the door to working together ...


User currently offlinePoitin From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 4, posted (7 years 5 months 2 weeks 1 day 6 hours ago) and read 6382 times:

Quoting Kaitak (Reply 3):
He could, but he's a shareholder; he wants to see the value of his shareholding increase. Why should he sit down and sit back; if he's spent this amount of money, why not make it work.



Quoting Kaitak (Reply 3):
sure, DM said in the past that he can conceive of no situation where the airlines would work together, he was at pains not to get into any personal invective or offence and MO'L has paid tribute to EI's management too - albeit obliquely, so I think the door is not closed.

Ah, Kaitak, and I thought you were trained the law, finance, and lived out on Jersey with all the money launderers.

May I seriously suggest that you obtain and then carefully read a copy of The Prince by Niccolo Machiavelli. While out of print, you can obtain used copies from several dealers through Amazon.co.uk.
This a direct link to the listing:

http://www.amazon.co.uk/Prince-Class...17/ref=sr_11_1/026-4222307-4265219

The ISBN is 0140441077

You do not seem to understand MOL, and perhaps Nicky will sort it out for you. This is about power and control, not making an extra two points on your old age investments.


User currently offlineKaitak From Ireland, joined Aug 1999, 12324 posts, RR: 35
Reply 5, posted (7 years 5 months 2 weeks 1 day 6 hours ago) and read 6359 times:

Quoting Poitin (Reply 4):
You do not seem to understand MOL, and perhaps Nicky will sort it out for you. This is about power and control, not making an extra two points on your old age investments.

I've read a bit of it; my well-thumbed version is lost somewhere in my room, but I remember him saying that it's better to be feared than loved. I know there are applications in the 20th century, but the reality for MO'L is that he's stuck. Maybe, over time, there is a way out, but for the moment, he just has to sit tight and make his investment work as best he can. There are other fish to fry. Sure, he can rant and rave and come over all aggressive, but what exactly does that achieve. I have no doubt that he'll give EI management a rough ride and his silver tongue will lacerate unions and others who cross his path (and I certainly wouldn't want to do business with him), but in the final analysis, he has to make the situation he's in work as well as possible for him - however much he may like it.

And remember that, however hard he makes the EI AGM for its management, there'll be people wanting to make the FR AGM just as uncomfortable for him. If I were an FR shareholder, I'd be pretty miffed. Remember what he said at the beginning? We have $2bn (?) in cash earning interest at around 3%; it makes sense to invest in EI. Now, he has $250-300m less and invested in a major competitor which can't be sold and which, if he competes against them at full throttle, will put that investment at risk. So, how is this better than leaving it in the bank in the first place? Maybe I'm missing something fundamental, but I still see this whole project as a big mistake for FR, but a very good position for EI to be in ... For now.

I'm sure I don't understand him completely, but I'm wondering if it's wise to think of him as someone who seeks power and control at all costs?


User currently offlineJWMD123 From Ireland, joined May 2006, 867 posts, RR: 0
Reply 6, posted (7 years 5 months 2 weeks 1 day 5 hours ago) and read 6339 times:

Although they do not have approval to fly yet, the visionair website states that they begin to fly dec 06.

Is that not cutting it very fine seeing as though legally they cannot sell tickets until they have approval to fly.

I also had to laugh at MOL's comments regarding the new BINGO venture FR are starting. He said in the future we may see 'The captains calling out the numbers'

Could you imagine it:

"ladies and gentlemen we are currently reaching our flying altitude of 19000ft and the next number is two little ducks ----22"!!!!!!!!!


User currently offlineEI321 From Iraq, joined Jul 2009, 0 posts, RR: 0
Reply 7, posted (7 years 5 months 2 weeks 1 day 5 hours ago) and read 6334 times:

What the hell is the deal with visionair, not a single press release, ad, etc. Although they cant sell tickets themselves without an Irish AOC, its quite possible that visionair are intending to operate this as a booking agent, and another party will operate the aircraft on their behalf (think jetgreen).

User currently offlinePoitin From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 8, posted (7 years 5 months 2 weeks 1 day 5 hours ago) and read 6332 times:

Quoting Kaitak (Reply 6):
but I remember him saying that it's better to be feared than loved.

Or hated. That is the key. If you are hated, they will throw themselves on your sword just to get at you. MOL has certainly come very close to doing that if some of the comments on this forum are any indication.

However, MOL has apparently been getting good advice and is now playing the nice little boy, hoping we will not notice. That is why I said I now believe he is will sit there and say "WHO ME?" MOI? BUT I TRIED TO GET THEM TO UNDERSTAND! I TRIED TO HELP! I EVEN KEPT FR OFF OF EI ADDITIONAL ROUTES!"

DM on the other hand seems to be loosing it. He is making rash statements to the press and taking a very hard position. I am sure that in MOL's eyes, there can be no compromise with DM, so DM will have to go. From what I can see, DM is flying EI into the ground. He is increasing frequencies on routes and not starting new routes. And MOL sees this.

In addition, the little duckies such as AA, DL, CO, US, RE, Flybe and all the others are nimbling away at the EI routes. The EI cost structure is a serious problem as my previous posts show and it will not take long before the all important average load factor goes to under 75% and bang! Red Ink.

Also remember that EI use to be a privately held company and could pretty much do what it wanted with regard to reporting. Now it is a publicly traded company and so it must be much more transparent in its reporting. I am waiting for the first one from EI issued under ISE rules.

Quoting Kaitak (Reply 6):
I'm sure I don't understand him completely, but I'm wondering if it's wise to think of him as someone who seeks power and control at all costs?

He wants EI and he is going to get it, but not at all costs. He could have bought for E$3.50 a share. He is not stupid. All he has to do is wait, let DM continue to make testicular decisions and trip up on his pego.

You are quite wrong to say FR was defeated. All we saw was round one. MOL will take a different approach and in the end I am sure that ESOP Trust will loose big time. You comment about paying E1.30 may just come about.

Quoting Kaitak (Reply 6):
If I were an FR shareholder, I'd be pretty miffed. Remember what he said at the beginning? We have $2bn (?) in cash earning interest at around 3%; it makes sense to invest in EI.

People are so angry with MOL that they are lining up to get on his airplanes and buy FR stock. Today FR closed at E9.43, and all time high.

http://www.ise.ie/app/equityHGraph.asp?INSTRUMENT_ID=12724

Don't expect any FR board room coup d'états anytime soon. MOL is going nowhere he doesn't want to go.


User currently offlinePoitin From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 9, posted (7 years 5 months 2 weeks 1 day 5 hours ago) and read 6329 times:

Quoting JWMD123 (Reply 7):
I also had to laugh at MOL's comments regarding the new BINGO venture FR are starting. He said in the future we may see 'The captains calling out the numbers'

Could you imagine it:

"ladies and gentlemen we are currently reaching our flying altitude of 19000ft and the next number is two little ducks ----22"!!!!!!!!!

While I doubt this would happen on a FR flight, it might well happen on an EI flight if MOL has his way. The big difference between long haul and short haul is the number of hours your are sitting there looking at the seat back ahead of you. One of our start ups is developing a IFE you wouldn't believe. Just slide your credit card in the slot and you can listen to music, watch a movie, connect to the internet, play video poker. I will remember to suggest they add bingo to the list. Perhaps MOL is taking to these guys. I will have to ask the next time I go to Palo Alto.


User currently offlinePilot21 From Ireland, joined Oct 1999, 1384 posts, RR: 2
Reply 10, posted (7 years 5 months 2 weeks 1 day 4 hours ago) and read 6315 times:

Quoting Poitin (Reply 9):
Don't expect any FR board room coup d'états anytime soon. MOL is going nowhere he doesn't want to go.

Apparently, when the whole FR/EI thing blew up in Oct, it was reported that MO'L had said earlier this yr that 2008 will be his retirement yr. Who knows with that man!



Aircraft I've flown: A300/A310/A320/A321/A330/A340/B727/B732/B733/B734/B735/B738/B741/B742/B744/DC10/MD80/IL62/Bae146/AR
User currently offlineEI787 From Ireland, joined Jan 2006, 1513 posts, RR: 21
Reply 11, posted (7 years 5 months 2 weeks 19 hours ago) and read 6279 times:
Support Airliners.net - become a First Class Member!

Quote:
E1.5b airport plan for Lusk

By Hubert Murphy

HUNDREDS of acres west of Lusk have been earmarked for a new E1.5b airport runway and local terminal to service Dublin Airport.

The runway project has gathered momentum in the past two weeks after approximately 10 landowners were approached and asked if they would sell to those behind the project. The main backer is reported to be a wealthy Irish businessman.

The Fingal Independent believes that the landowners concerned have since met and discussed the plan and are set to make a positive decision in relation to it. It could involve up to 1,500 acres.

The land involved is close to Grace Dieu – the ruined site of an ancient nunnery – and sweeps westwards towards Ballyboughal between the townlands of Roscall and Brownstown and Dooroge and Cookstown.

‘It’s quite a project and it’s surprising that details haven’t gone public before now,’ a source revealed.

The runway will be designed to take the Airbus A380 with no difficulty and can also be used as a private enterprise.

The key element is the link with Dublin Airport. It’s envisaged that it will be a high speed rail system, connecting to a spur off the Metro line at Lissenhall. It will come down west of the M1, through Belinstown and Staffordstown before sweeping through Deanestown to the terminal.

Another plus for the developers, who are keen to keep the project low key until a deal is struck with the landowners, is that the approach to the runway will be between the town of Rush and the village of Portrane, directly over the Rogerstown Estuary and a low density population area, meaning minimal impact on the local population.

‘Things have been well thought out, it has to be said. They know that the landfill at Balleally is closing and the approach route is not over a major town,’ the source added.

The area is the last parcel of flat, suitable land in the region that could take the runway. However, it will be just a matter of miles from the proposed Nevitt landfill but will not be on the projected flightpath.

‘They are looking ahead to the future of air travel and realise that Dublin Airport will need another option and this is about the last place a runway of the size they need can be built in proximity to the airport,’ the source continued.

It’s believed aviation experts have been called in and given a firm thumbs up to the plan.

Just over three years ago landowners just north of the present project were contacted in relation to selling their land for a proposed theme park – Vega City – with one standing to make at least E26m had the deal gone through.

However, that project fell at pre-planning stage.

http://www.unison.ie/fingal_independ...p3?ca=34&si=1719748&issue_id=14861

What do you think?? A380 landings at Lusk??!!


User currently offlineToulouse From Switzerland, joined Apr 2005, 2754 posts, RR: 58
Reply 12, posted (7 years 5 months 2 weeks 17 hours ago) and read 6250 times:

Quoting Poitin (Reply 9):
He is making rash statements to the press and taking a very hard position.

I haven't really found his statements to be any more rash than O'Learys'. I'm also glad to see him taking a very hard position.

Quoting Poitin (Reply 9):
From what I can see, DM is flying EI into the ground. He is increasing frequencies on routes and not starting new routes.

I disagree with you. DM has introduced Dubai, the first route east ever by EI and seems intent on expanding. He has introduced a number of new routes for this winter. And recently EI has instead of introducing new routes, increased frequencies on routes already operated. What is wrong with this? I find it quite a safe move in difficult times. The management at EI are not stupid, and I find increasing frequencies on routes which are already known, tested and obviously with more demand is not a bad idea. DM has good experience in the airline industry, and he hasn't been at EI for that long, yet in his short time he has "hinted" to all the expansion he wants to implement at EI, so give the man a chance. He has always left it fairly clear that this expansion would be post privatisation.

Quoting Poitin (Reply 9):
People are so angry with MOL that they are lining up to get on his airplanes

Most people lining up to get on his airplanes probably don't even know who MOL is. He service very local markets which other airlines don't. Nevertheless, I constantly meet (as I'm living in Europe where people are well aware of FR and not in the US) people saying things such as "I just don't like flying FR", "I hate FR", "FR's service is awful"... I don't hear the same level of criticism regarding other airlines. Money counts, and that's one of the main attractions of FR for the average traveller. But while I do feel FR will continue to grow, I think things will get more difficult for them unless they change their level of service. A close example for you is my sister. She works with a well-known Irish man and they have to travel a lot for business. Ten years ago they were not frequent travellers and as a small yet highly successful business, they paid a lot of attention to their travel budget, so who did they usually fly..., yes FR. About two years ago, due to time restrictions on a trip to Munich I think they decided to pay a bit more and fly EI (as they didn't have the time on that trip for the time consuming transfer from the closes airport FR flies to). And what an eye-openner this was to them... they rediscovered service with a smile, more comfortable cabins, improved inflight service, and later discovered the joys of the advantages of frequent flyer programmes. Who do the fly with today out of preference? Yes, Aer Lingus and avoid FR as much as possible, and I feel this tendancy will also grow.
Another thing I'd like to add to my rant on FR. Some of their statistics make me laugh, as they soy joyfully claim that they loose less baggae and are more punctual by other major carriers such as EI, BA, LH, AF, etc... Well of course! FR flies to tiny airports where it would be quite difficult for luggage to go astray, and to face delays. Take my local airports as examples. I have EI flying direct from Toulouse to Dublin. While Toulouse is not a huge airport (some 6 million pax per annum) it does have a lot more traffic and is subject to more delays or the risk of losing baggage. FR flies to Carcassonne airport one hour away. Now that's a tiny terminal which only comes to life when an FR flight arrives. In fact no other airline uses the airport, so the risk of baggage going astray or delays on the ground (slot restrictions etc.) is minimial at an airport where peak time is when there are a whopping TWO Ryanair flights on the tarmac at the same time.
So as I always say, and as SomkeyRosco has pointed out, comaring EI and FR is pointless, just like comparing apples and oranges.

Quoting Poitin (Reply 9):
and buy FR stock. Today FR closed at E9.43, and all time high.

Not surprising given that they had announced importnat profits.



Long live Aer Lingus!
User currently offlineKaitak From Ireland, joined Aug 1999, 12324 posts, RR: 35
Reply 13, posted (7 years 5 months 2 weeks 14 hours ago) and read 6206 times:

Many people I'm sure will be relieved at the success of the Democrats in yesterday's elections - as of now, controlling the house and within a very good shout of the Senate too, BUT ...

If they start obstructing and rubbing the President's nose in the dirt, one of the casualties of this could be the Open Skies issue and we need to look for signs as to how this is going to turn out; on the plus side, if they are Democrats, the Irish govt tends to be closer to them and maybe lobbying might work to persuade them to make an exception, although I'm not sure if they could go straight to the House Aviation Cttee, rather than through the DOT. It is, however, something we need to bear in mind.


User currently offlineDanny From Poland, joined Apr 2002, 3505 posts, RR: 2
Reply 14, posted (7 years 5 months 2 weeks 14 hours ago) and read 6201 times:

Quoting Poitin (Reply 2):
. Even with the E250 he put into EI, he has more than made it up in H1 profits.

To be clear - investment in EI has no immediate impact on FR results. It is a balance sheet move between cash and investments.


User currently offlineJWMD123 From Ireland, joined May 2006, 867 posts, RR: 0
Reply 15, posted (7 years 5 months 2 weeks 13 hours ago) and read 6173 times:

Quoting Poitin (Reply 10):
Quoting JWMD123 (Reply 7):
I also had to laugh at MOL's comments regarding the new BINGO venture FR are starting. He said in the future we may see 'The captains calling out the numbers'

Could you imagine it:

"ladies and gentlemen we are currently reaching our flying altitude of 19000ft and the next number is two little ducks ----22"!!!!!!!!!

While I doubt this would happen on a FR flight, it might well happen on an EI flight if MOL has his way. The big difference between long haul and short haul is the number of hours your are sitting there looking at the seat back ahead of you. One of our start ups is developing a IFE you wouldn't believe. Just slide your credit card in the slot and you can listen to music, watch a movie, connect to the internet, play video poker. I will remember to suggest they add bingo to the list. Perhaps MOL is taking to these guys. I will have to ask the next time I go to Palo Alto.

Poitin, I think dear old MOL was joking about this, but then again, i would not put it past him.


User currently offlinePoitin From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 16, posted (7 years 5 months 2 weeks 12 hours ago) and read 6143 times:

Quoting Pilot21 (Reply 11):
Apparently, when the whole FR/EI thing blew up in Oct, it was reported that MO'L had said earlier this yr that 2008 will be his retirement yr. Who knows with that man!

I said: "MOL is going nowhere he doesn't want to go." Perhaps he will retire to chairman of the board. I suspect he will. It is nice not to have to get up in the morning.

Quoting Toulouse (Reply 13):
Quoting Poitin (Reply 9):
From what I can see, DM is flying EI into the ground. He is increasing frequencies on routes and not starting new routes.

I disagree with you.

Yes, I am sure you do. However, we will just have to look at the next EI ISE report, won't we, to see what the numbers say. Right now they are looking bad.

http://www.ise.ie/app/announcementDetails.asp?ID=1328158

Quoting JWMD123 (Reply 16):
Perhaps MOL is taking to these guys. I will have to ask the next time I go to Palo Alto.

Poitin, I think dear old MOL was joking about this, but then again, i would not put it past him.

I am certainly not joking. I have been working on long haul money making opportunities for well over a year. MyWay Airlines, a low cost long haul sells you a ticket which give you a seat, a glass of water and a small loaf of bread for E100 return from DUB to JFK. You want a can of soda? Perhaps a nice sandwich? How about some music? Oh, how about a movie? And so you want to get onto the internet and check your email? Perhaps you want to play a video game with all the other kids on the plane? You want to recharge your laptop battery?

You have nothing else to do for the next four, five, or ten hours but stare at the seat ahead of you and munch on your two-day old loaf of bread.

All you have to do is swipe your credit card on the back of the seat ahead of you and it can all be yours for the next four or five or ten hours. Where else are you going to go? What else are you going to do?

It is the greatest money making opportunity you can imagine. Of course there is much more to the idea than I am saying, but MOL would love it, but only on long haul. It just won't work on short haul because the segments are too short to encourage people to buy these extras.


User currently offlineToulouse From Switzerland, joined Apr 2005, 2754 posts, RR: 58
Reply 17, posted (7 years 5 months 2 weeks 11 hours ago) and read 6127 times:

Quoting Poitin (Reply 17):
Yes, I am sure you do.

Oh Poitin, believe it or not, I don't ALWAYS disagree with you!

Quoting Poitin (Reply 17):
However, we will just have to look at the next EI ISE report, won't we, to see what the numbers say. Right now they are looking bad.

http://www.ise.ie/app/announcementDe...28158

I don't really think they look that bad looking at some main indicators (pax carried + load factor which you always enjoy referring to)
September 2006:
a.) Overall scheduled pax carried: + 6.4% over Sep. '05.
b.) Short haul pax carried: +8.9% over Sep. '05. Load factor = 80.0% (down 2.2% same period 2005).
c.) Long haul pax carried: -9.2% over same period 05. load factor down 7.4%.

January to September 2006:
a.) Scheduled pax. carried: +8.2%
b.) Short haul: +10.6%. Load factor: 77.1% (down 1.4%).
c.) Long haul: -5.3%. Load factor: 80.0% (down 6.7%).

Interestingly it seems to be the long haul which has been most badly affeted, but they have given clear indications of the "probable" reasons for this:
a.) They say that the decrease in l/h is a "reflection of the discontinuance of the Orlando route"... fact another a.netter nrought up recently but which you sais was not true and baffled us with statistics.
b) They constantly refer to the negative effects of the terrorism alert in London this year affecting traffic in general.

Anyway, we see load factors, for what ever reason are down, and as you constantly point out this is an important element, yet they give valid causes for this. Will this change? Time will tell.

I'm referring only to pas numbers and load factors here so don't say I'm ignoring other numbers, this is simply to back-up my point that I see no wrong in DM's current approach to increasing frequencies on routes. And he has promised MORE new routes soon.

Quoting Poitin (Reply 17):
You have nothing else to do for the next four, five, or ten hours but stare at the seat ahead of you and munch on your two-day old loaf of bread.

All you have to do is swipe your credit card on the back of the seat ahead of you and it can all be yours for the next four or five or ten hours. Where else are you going to go? What else are you going to do?

Yes, there will be a arket for that I believe, but I for one (and many others I believe, yourself most probably included) would prefer to pay the extra euros and have it all included in the fare (+ get a better meal than you're describing).

Quoting Poitin (Reply 17):
It is the greatest money making opportunity you can imagine. Of course there is much more to the idea than I am saying, but MOL would love it, but only on long haul. It just won't work on short haul because the segments are too short to encourage people to buy these extras.

I totally agree with you, but again I think the market may very well be there, but I do not see this replacing current l/h service in which pax are continually looking for better service, better comfort, better IFE. So again I say given the option on an 8 hour flight for example of:
airline a.) An airline giving good leg-room, good service, good standard of free food, quality IFE, a FF programme, and backup in case of delays or missed connections, all for (and I'm just throwing up any "low" figure): €350, or
airline b.à la Ryanair). 2 day old stale sandwich and other beverages/snacks which must be paid for, the most tightly cramped Boeing a/c imaginable, and nothing else except a state of the art individual IFE system you have to pay for, thus running up your credit card bill (without even adding other standard Ryanair practices such as continual announcments offering sales, no possibility of interlining, flying you to an airport 1 hour from the main airport at the destination you're flying to, etc.) for €150...

I for one would pay the €350, wouldn't you?



Long live Aer Lingus!
User currently offlinePoitin From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 18, posted (7 years 5 months 2 weeks 11 hours ago) and read 6125 times:

Quoting Danny (Reply 15):
Quoting Poitin (Reply 2):
. Even with the E250 he put into EI, he has more than made it up in H1 profits.

To be clear - investment in EI has no immediate impact on FR results. It is a balance sheet move between cash and investments.

My point is that even E250M isn't that large of a pile of money when you have a couple billion in the bank, and are earning E 329 M (AFTER TAXES) per half.

Yes, the investment in EI has had no impact on FR, nor will it until MOL gains control of EI. Then, if he has his way, EI will start growing at 20% to 30% and start pumping more international business into the FR short haul. That is about the only way he is going to grow FR to 80 million pax a year. There aren't that many PAX in Europe alone to fill that quota. He has to tap new markets.

Right now EI has about 1.2 Million pax on long haul. That should grow to 8 or 10 million in a few years under his direction and finance.

And I still think he would have been far ahead by starting MyWay instead of getting into this stupid situation with EI.


User currently offlinePoitin From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 19, posted (7 years 5 months 2 weeks 10 hours ago) and read 6087 times:

Something is going on with EI stock at 1630 it was at E2.79 and there was a large turn over of shares


Turnover: 15,027,439
Shares Traded on Day: 5,332,590


User currently offlinePoitin From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 20, posted (7 years 5 months 2 weeks 10 hours ago) and read 6065 times:

Quoting Toulouse (Reply 18):
Yes, there will be a arket for that I believe, but I for one (and many others I believe, yourself most probably included) would prefer to pay the extra euros and have it all included in the fare (+ get a better meal than you're describing).

Yeap, I do and would. However, there are a lot who would be attracted to the LCC LH. I for one do not like to fly on FR and have done it only once. However, the masses were lining up to get on, so MOL does have a workable plan.

The same equipment we are developing would have prepaid mode, as well as "free" for first class and such. In fact given the high proportion of internet purchases, we expect people to pre order their upgraded meal, special meals, entertainment and such when buying their ticket. Just how it would work is obviously be up to the airline, but we can make certain that each pax gets what they order. This does, of course, require assigned seating, but that is done on most long haul flights already.


User currently offlineEI787 From Ireland, joined Jan 2006, 1513 posts, RR: 21
Reply 21, posted (7 years 5 months 2 weeks 9 hours ago) and read 6060 times:
Support Airliners.net - become a First Class Member!

Gulf Air is very happy with DUB:

Quote:
Ireland strong market so far for Gulf Air

November 08, 2006 15:04

After ten months operating here, Gulf Air says Ireland is showing signs of being one of the strongest markets proportionately in Europe for the luxury airline.

Gulf Air says that since the introduction of three flights a week from Dublin in December to Bahrain and beyond, the airline has flown 35,000 passengers, with over 4,500 flying in July.

Speaking today at the official opening of Gulf Air Ireland's new head office in Dublin, the Minister for Transport Martin Cullen said: 'our air services strategy promotes competitiveness, flexibility, consumer choice and diversity of product to satisfy different consumer needs'.
Advertisement

Gulf Air's network stretches from Europe to Asia and covers 44 cities in 30 countries. The fleet comprises 34 aircraft.

http://www.rte.ie/business/2006/1108/gulfair.html


User currently offlinePoitin From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 22, posted (7 years 5 months 2 weeks 9 hours ago) and read 6055 times:

What happened to EI stock? At 1230 it was E2.84 and then bang, to E2.79 at 1630. Was there an announcement? I've been looking where I can, but have found nothing.

User currently offlinePilot21 From Ireland, joined Oct 1999, 1384 posts, RR: 2
Reply 23, posted (7 years 5 months 2 weeks 9 hours ago) and read 6049 times:

Quoting EI787 (Reply 22):
Speaking today at the official opening of Gulf Air Ireland's new head office in Dublin, the Minister for Transport Martin Cullen said: 'our air services strategy promotes competitiveness, flexibility, consumer choice and diversity of product to satisfy different consumer needs'.

What Air Services Strategy???

Have you ever heard such rubbish in your life. Somebody should ask the Minister has he had to pass through the Terminal recently?



Aircraft I've flown: A300/A310/A320/A321/A330/A340/B727/B732/B733/B734/B735/B738/B741/B742/B744/DC10/MD80/IL62/Bae146/AR
User currently offlineKaitak From Ireland, joined Aug 1999, 12324 posts, RR: 35
Reply 24, posted (7 years 5 months 2 weeks 9 hours ago) and read 6040 times:

I know; he said that in relation to the FR takeover plan; if there is an Irish aviation policy, he's keeping very quiet about it.

On the subject of Open Skies and increased t/a access from next Summer, I was talking about this over PPRUNE and the vibes are not good at all. Basically, with the Republicans now have lost the House and more than likely, the Senate as well, the Democrats can basically block everything they want AND they were among the most vocal opponents of Open Skies.

On the plus side, there may be some advantage to us in the fact that the winners are Democrats, in that Ireland is traditionally closer to them. Hopefully, once the shape of the House Committee becomes clear, the govt could lobby them. However, the key focus, as I've said so many times before needs to be on the EU. The EU will obviously want to see what the position is and get some soundings from the Democrats. However, we need the govt, for once, to be very clear and forthright in fighting for our interests. If I may borrow a phrase from a colourful former US president, our aviation strategy and interests won't be worth "a bucket of warm p**s" if the govt is not going to explore every possible avenue and make sure that we get increased US access by next Summer. Election or no election, we've wasted enough of time on this BS.


25 EI787 : I've put the Aer Lingus Ad onto YouTube for easier access:
26 Shamrock350 : Thanks EI787! I hope more adverts end up on Youtube like "appearance" (I think that's it's name) and the "Look up, it's Aer Lingus" ad. It would be co
27 Smokeyrosco : Sounds very familiar except... wasn't the last time someone tried to do this it turned out to be a theme park? Over 5c? not likely Poitin, I've been
28 Post contains links Poitin : Then look for yourself http://www.ise.ie/app/equityDetails.asp?equity=41372
29 Poitin : My first transatlantic trip was as a graduate student on a charter Britannia turbo prop that was pure hell. Two weeks later, I was told my charter ha
30 Pilot21 : I think Smokeyrosco was saying that an annoucement was not likely over a 5c move rather then a 5c move was not likely (If that makes sense!)
31 Smokeyrosco : Thats exactly what I meant, if someone had to announce something everytime there was a 5c difference then we'd be in thread 40 by now.
32 Poitin : Right, I see them lining up right now. EK has certainly no interest, if what Tim Clark said is true. BA sure can't and I don't see LH or AF buying EI
33 Poitin : to E2.79? I think that is VERY signifiant. What happened?
34 Smokeyrosco : EI was an easy target for a takeover, I'm not saying EK was going to take them over, yes I had used them as an example in the past but I never said t
35 Smokeyrosco : Profit taking?
36 Smokeyrosco : Ohh btw, did you not notice that EI revenue per pax is €110 while FR's is about €50 now I don't know about you but when EI cut costs how much bet
37 Smokeyrosco : ohh just a thought, it could be to do with the EU as the date is set for the reply but also the government seems confident that it will go in there f
38 JWMD123 : Thankyou Toulouse, but I see Poitin has looked over this point again. By the way Poitin, I work in the Financial sector and there are many reasons wh
39 Post contains links Kaitak : A few little snippets in the papers today, of interest from an aviation perspective: The Irish Times reported, as part of a report on the ministerial
40 Toulouse : Thanks EI787! Certainly Shamrock350, it would be nice. That is an interesting point of view, and you may very well be right. Poitin, I probably shoul
41 Al2637 : Firstly, if I were a large investor in FR and they decide to launch a E1.4 bn takeover for EI, why then can they not pay me a dividend for investing s
42 Post contains links Kaitak : Not on short haul, but I see them being more aggressive on long haul and especially if they go into Asia, which will be a huge cargo market for them.
43 Post contains links JWMD123 : Eh, wrong, microsoft have been paying dividends since 2003!!!! http://www.microsoft.com/msft/FAQ/dividend.mspx
44 Pilot21 : They should look more closely at suspending the route until next yr. Once the new EI aircraft arrive next May/June and the increase in L/H flights ki
45 Al2637 : Eh, wrong, microsoft have been paying dividends since 2003!!!! My bad, but the point remains, not paying divendents is standard practise is a lot of c
46 Poitin : Short haul to short haul ? And as the average EI short haul ticket is ether E66 according to the annual report or E88 according to the IPO prospectus
47 Poitin : No, I am just investor playing the investor game. Part of it is go get into the mind of the major players and try to see what they are doing. I have
48 Poitin : Yeap, you sure did. And "we will see" was my response, which it still is. We will see in a few months. My prediction is EI 2006 profits will be down
49 ThrottleHold : From RTE.ie/news: Ryanair 'broke stock exchange rule' November 09, 2006 14:41 Ryanair breached certain stock exchange rules in announcing details of i
50 Poitin : I don't ever remember saying that I thought MOL should be doing this, in fact I said that it was stupid. He should be building a new long haul from s
51 Poitin : Good catch ThottleHold. The actual statement is: While some of the assumptions underpinning the figures in the statement are set out in the announcem
52 BestWestern : Thanks EI787 - nostalgia fantastic. Of late I've stopped flying Bmi (havent stepped onboard a BD aircraft in seven months), and have moved back to Ae
53 JWMD123 : AI2637 thats fine. I will not disagree on the rationale for MS not paying a dividend but I do know they were an industry leader in paying. With their
54 Post contains links and images Pilot21 : I'm passing on info. I saw on another thread, but as it concerns EI, it's ok to post here as well Airbus just updated their orders and deliveries s/s
55 Post contains links Poitin : I think your marketing is weak, but that is my opinion. Eastern Europeans will not be a significant market for the next five years. And Turkey will n
56 Poitin : Oh, god, I hope you are right. EI needed more 330s years ago. Anyone have any idea what is the count of 330s EI does have on order now?
57 Pilot21 : Unfortunately these are only A320's Poitin, the short haul fleet. At the moment, we only have confirmation on the 2 extra A330's due in May/June, but
58 Post contains images Poitin : oh
59 Smokeyrosco : Actually the population of the EU is about 450 odd million if my memory serves. in about 15 years we'll probably be double the US population. I never
60 Toulouse : Just for your info the population of the 25 state EU as of January 1st 2004 was already at 456.4 million and is growing.
61 Smokeyrosco : hmm which is still at least €16 more then FR
62 EI787 : Web Check-in has now been extended to the following routes: DUB - LHR - DUB ORK - LHR - ORK SNN - LHR - SNN
63 Post contains links Poitin : I fail to see your point. You are saying EI makes more money because they fly long haul. Golly, that is brilliant. Actually, more like "twice" as muc
64 Poitin : I appreciate that. The population of the USA is only 300 Million and growing. However, what is the likelyhood of 80 million Pax a year want to fly FR
65 Toulouse : Just so you know Poitin, I actually agree with you on this whole 80 million target given by FR and find it very difficult if not impossible to compre
66 JWMD123 : I do agree business models need updating from time to time but I look at this like the old adage, "if it ain't broke, don't fix it". To put this in F
67 Smokeyrosco : Given that most people fly more then once a year and upto 4 or 5 times for short weekend vacations I think 80 million passengers is entirely plausible
68 Kaitak : Guys, without causing any offence or assigning any blame, could we perhaps take a deep breath for a while and be a little less tetchy. The NUMBER ONE
69 Poitin : You have it nailed! I have no idea what MOL is really up to, and I am guessing from what I know and see. Now I am not saying what he WILL do, but wha
70 Kaitak : Incidentally, on the subject of new Aer Lingus aeroplanes - largely because I like saying that ... see: "NEW AER LINGUS AEROPLANES", told you, wasn't
71 Poitin : I have no idea just where you got those figures you are quoting me. Do you have a reply reference where I said that? I believe it is also available a
72 Poitin : Please quote me correctly. I said "Eastern Europeans will not be a significant market for the next five years." Please note the FIVE YEARS. There is
73 Post contains images EI787 : Take a look at this: From the Flightdeck of an EI A332 Dublin - Orlando. How did he manage to get into the cockpit ... especially for takeoff??!!! It'
74 JWMD123 : We must pat each other on the back!!!! I would like to take you up on that point. Let's put aside the EI issue and focus on FR. As you say you see an
75 Shamrock350 : I saw that video last week EI787 and was thinking the same thing. It's a good video anyway as are lots of the Aer Lingus ones on youtube including thi
76 Poitin : Please remember I have always held MOL should start a new airline, which I call "MyWay." So let us discuss MyWay and as you suggest forget EI even ex
77 Smokeyrosco : Maybe if you actually read all my posts which you obviously do not you'd realise where I got those numbers, I got them from you and your post from th
78 ABC9 : Sorry to see you go Smokeyrosco, I've always enjoyed and respected your posts, but I can understand why.
79 Toulouse : Well said ABC9. SmokeyRosco, you know we don't want to loose you.
80 Kaitak : I am really sorry to see Smokeyrosco - or indeed anyone - go. It should not have happened and it should give us pause to reflect. As I said above, peo
81 Poitin : He needs time to cool off. I took a vacation some months ago. And no, Toulouse, you were not the cause, just the fuse. Although you irritate me, and
82 Poitin : Point accepted, although you will agree he is distruaght
83 Kaitak : OK guys, let's just leave the acrimony behind; people say things in the heat of the moment they'd rather leave unsaid. Let's just focus on what we're
84 Toulouse : Poitin, What do you smoke may I ask? Now, we have had some past history, and while your assumption that you irritate me is true, and I you, I think yo
85 Kaitak : Guys, can I make a suggestion. This thread has gone off track and it's a bit disappointing as the previous 19 have been very enjoyable. May I suggest
86 Shamrock350 : Just a little update on aerlingus.com. The route map for Europe has been updated and Athens has been added. The extension now makes what a very full m
87 Post contains links Kaitak : Here's the link to No 21: Happy 21st - Another Overdose Of Irish Aviation! (by Kaitak Nov 10 2006 in Civil Aviation) Regards and ENJOY!!!
88 EI321 : Is that the actual store or the online version, which is just amazon in drag. Im not getting involved but if anybody has a problem there are moderato
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