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$1B In A350 Penalty Payments In Q4  
User currently offlineRevelation From United States of America, joined Feb 2005, 12543 posts, RR: 25
Posted (7 years 10 months 1 week 6 days 18 hours ago) and read 7301 times:

Buried in the following article:

http://www.iht.com/articles/ap/2006/...iness/EU_FIN_EARNS_France_EADS.php

is the following quote:

Quote:
Penalty payments to airlines that ordered a now-abandoned, less ambitious version of the A350 could reach up to €800 million (US$1 billion) in the last quarter of the year, Ring said.

Ring is the EADS CFO and soon to be the Airbus CFO, so it must be a true statement.

I wonder why so much money all goes out at the same time?

If one accepts the penalty payments, does that have any impact on your ability to cancel?

Are any A350 orders now "in the cancellation zone"?

Herr Ring may reget coining that particular phrase...

[Edited 2006-11-08 15:48:56] Ring is EADS CFO and soon to be EADS CFO... also clarified statement about "ability to cancel"...

[Edited 2006-11-08 15:50:32]


Inspiration, move me brightly!
63 replies: All unread, showing first 25:
 
User currently offlineOsiris30 From Barbados, joined Sep 2006, 3192 posts, RR: 25
Reply 1, posted (7 years 10 months 1 week 6 days 18 hours ago) and read 7274 times:

Erfff...

Money + Airbus = Money.In.The.Toilet...

Are these guys wiping with 100EU bills in the restrooms... good god..



I don't care what you think of my opinion. It's my opinion, so have a nice day :)
User currently offlineFuturecaptain From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 2, posted (7 years 10 months 1 week 6 days 17 hours ago) and read 7222 times:

Quoting Osiris30 (Reply 1):
Are these guys wiping with 100EU bills in the restrooms...

Agreed. This seems excessive. How much per frame does that equal? 10 million? 20 million? more? How many frames are they paying compensation for?


User currently offlineKatekebo From United States of America, joined Apr 2001, 704 posts, RR: 6
Reply 3, posted (7 years 10 months 1 week 6 days 17 hours ago) and read 7219 times:

Most likely these penalty payments won't be made in cash, but will be applied as discounts toward the A350XWB price. Only the customers who decide to cancel the orders for the A350 could get a cash payment. While it's bad news for Airbus finances, using the money to discount the price of the A350XWB is the best way out - airlines will get a more capable airplane for less, and Airbus will be able to defer the cashflow impact several years down the road. I "guesstimate" $10m or so discount per frame.

User currently offlineWingman From Seychelles, joined May 1999, 2260 posts, RR: 5
Reply 4, posted (7 years 10 months 1 week 6 days 17 hours ago) and read 7196 times:

Jesus, this is turning into a legendary business case study. Outside of direct criminal activity like Enron or Wolrdcom I'm not sure I can recall a more negligent or imcompetent management team in the last 20 years. It is shocking to see the share price not get battered some more today. The threshold for pain amongst the European investment community is extraordinary.

User currently offlineBringiton From United States of America, joined Sep 2006, 866 posts, RR: 0
Reply 5, posted (7 years 10 months 1 week 6 days 17 hours ago) and read 7194 times:

Adding 1 billion to the project cost just to make up for a previous version sounds very painful . Did the 12 billion $ previously announced Dev. money for the A350XWBcfrp include provisions for this 1 billion?

User currently offlineRevelation From United States of America, joined Feb 2005, 12543 posts, RR: 25
Reply 6, posted (7 years 10 months 1 week 6 days 17 hours ago) and read 7159 times:

Quoting Katekebo (Reply 3):
Most likely these penalty payments won't be made in cash, but will be applied as discounts toward the A350XWB price. Only the customers who decide to cancel the orders for the A350 could get a cash payment. While it's bad news for Airbus finances, using the money to discount the price of the A350XWB is the best way out - airlines will get a more capable airplane for less, and Airbus will be able to defer the cashflow impact several years down the road. I "guesstimate" $10m or so discount per frame.

Interesting point. I think many will convert to A350XWB, but I wonder if it is not too big an airplane for some customers, and if it's too late for others.

In any regard, I'm just curious about the timing aspect. If this financial hit is predicted for Q4, does that mean we'll see most of the conversions to A350XWB and/or cancellations of A350v1..A350v5 in Q4?



Inspiration, move me brightly!
User currently offlineMush From United States of America, joined Jun 2006, 97 posts, RR: 0
Reply 7, posted (7 years 10 months 1 week 6 days 17 hours ago) and read 7162 times:

Wow! So this is another 800,000,000 Euros thrown away because Airbus was flippant with respect to the 7E7 aka the "Chinese copy of the A330" aka the 787. If I was an EADS shareholder I would be pissed off. To bad Toulouse doesn't have Eliot Spitzer around to make these bastards accountable.


Sprung from cages out on highway 9
User currently offlineMush From United States of America, joined Jun 2006, 97 posts, RR: 0
Reply 8, posted (7 years 10 months 1 week 6 days 17 hours ago) and read 7105 times:

Quoting Revelation (Reply 6):
Quoting Katekebo (Reply 3):
Most likely these penalty payments won't be made in cash, but will be applied as discounts toward the A350XWB price. Only the customers who decide to cancel the orders for the A350 could get a cash payment. While it's bad news for Airbus finances, using the money to discount the price of the A350XWB is the best way out - airlines will get a more capable airplane for less, and Airbus will be able to defer the cashflow impact several years down the road. I "guesstimate" $10m or so discount per frame.

Interesting point. I think many will convert to A350XWB, but I wonder if it is not too big an airplane for some customers, and if it's too late for others.

I too agree that some will make the switch to the A350XWB, but if I was an airline that was getting 50,000,000 Euros (round number for arguments sake) for penalty payments, I would make sure I got more than that in discounts for the A350XWB. If Airbus simply offered 50,000,000 off the future price I would say no thanks and take the penalty money now and invest it in some short term investment, thereby making some money off of the penalty money and then buy some A350XWBs later with the same 50,000,000 Euros that have been making me money for the past couple of years.

Thanks,
Mush



Sprung from cages out on highway 9
User currently offlineWingman From Seychelles, joined May 1999, 2260 posts, RR: 5
Reply 9, posted (7 years 10 months 1 week 6 days 17 hours ago) and read 7035 times:

The other thing I don't understand is the apparent lack of leadership in the new regime, especially with regard to public communications. The media is just slaughtering Airbus right now and the way EADS is communicating is just feeding the negative machine. Now is the time for Gallois to show his workers, his investors and his customers that Airbus will come roaring back, this is truly the time for some Churchill-like stump speeches to rally the troops.

As much as I like Boeing, I like them more than anything else for the way in which they came roaring back themselves. Without Airbus we'd all still be flying 733's and 767's. There wouldn't be any 777's or 787's or even this website. Someone has to stand up right now and drag Airbus out of this ditch. If they do Airbus and EADS will emerge a stronger competitor than they've ever been and we'll all be the better off for it. Allez allez!!!


User currently offlineBringiton From United States of America, joined Sep 2006, 866 posts, RR: 0
Reply 10, posted (7 years 10 months 1 week 6 days 17 hours ago) and read 7034 times:

There will be some that will stick on and take the discounts because as it appears the XWB will be a very very capable aircraft however what about those airlines who WANTED a A330 type aircraft with 8 abreast ? Would they like the bigger aircraft sinced they truely subscribed to the smaller one ? Another point of contention would be that these airlines can take their compensation and go buy the dreamliner which is available in 2013 and beyond and is far more predictable . What if you were an airline that said at farnborough that "Ok I'll take the new XWB over the original A350 " and then you find out that the New version will be 1-2 years delayed . would you stick in for Round 2 or take the money and go elsewhere.

User currently offlineScouseflyer From United Kingdom, joined Apr 2006, 3390 posts, RR: 9
Reply 11, posted (7 years 10 months 1 week 6 days 17 hours ago) and read 6905 times:

You can bet you bottom dollar (quite an appropriate phrase considering response 2!) that AB costed this out very carefully in that the extra sales for the XWB would more than cover this cost.

I take two things from this - the XWB is happenning that Airbus are trying to "clear the decks" of all the bad news in one go before they update the sales figures for October (that will double their YTD sales!) and launch the XWB.

Or they could just be flailing about with no clue!


User currently offlineMush From United States of America, joined Jun 2006, 97 posts, RR: 0
Reply 12, posted (7 years 10 months 1 week 6 days 16 hours ago) and read 6865 times:

Quoting Wingman (Reply 9):
Without Airbus we'd all still be flying 733's and 767's. There wouldn't be any 777's or 787's or even this website.

With all due respect, I don't think that is a fair statement. If Airbus SAS wasn't around McDonnell Douglas probably wouldn't have folded like they did. Without the A320, the DC-9 descendants would have generated more sales and the MD-11 would have been able to pick up some of the A330/A340 sales. The success that they would have had would have forced Boeing to make their move with the 737NG series and the 777.

As for the 787...I don't know what would have happened. It could have ended up being the sonic cruiser...or it could have been a 717 type airplane with smaller variants to compete in the RJ market. Nobody knows what would have happened with that, but I'm almost positive that their would have been a composite airplane being developed because of the run up in the price of oil over the last few years.

Quoting Wingman (Reply 9):
Someone has to stand up right now and drag Airbus out of this ditch.

Sad, but true...someone needs to step in and clean house. I'm talking about an engineer, not some idiot who makes promises without knowing the cost or even if it is feasable. I'm an engineer and I know some very capable engineers that are great managers so I don't want to hear the BS that an engineer can't handle running a multiBillion Euro company.



Sprung from cages out on highway 9
User currently offlineJacobin777 From United States of America, joined Sep 2004, 14968 posts, RR: 59
Reply 13, posted (7 years 10 months 1 week 6 days 16 hours ago) and read 6850 times:

Quoting Katekebo (Reply 3):
Most likely these penalty payments won't be made in cash, but will be applied as discounts toward the A350XWB price. Only the customers who decide to cancel the orders for the A350 could get a cash payment. While it's bad news for Airbus finances, using the money to discount the price of the A350XWB is the best way out - airlines will get a more capable airplane for less, and Airbus will be able to defer the cashflow impact several years down the road. I "guesstimate" $10m or so discount per frame.



Quoting Mush (Reply 8):
I too agree that some will make the switch to the A350XWB, but if I was an airline that was getting 50,000,000 Euros (round number for arguments sake) for penalty payments, I would make sure I got more than that in discounts for the A350XWB. If Airbus simply offered 50,000,000 off the future price I would say no thanks and take the penalty money now and invest it in some short term investment, thereby making some money off of the penalty money and then buy some A350XWBs later with the same 50,000,000 Euros that have been making me money for the past couple of years.

The problem is that Airbus needs to keep a certain level of profit margins to stay profitable and competitive.

Airbus previous advantage was that they were much more efficient in manufaturing than Boeing was, but that has now swung to Boeing's favour..in fact, looking at the A380 imbroglio, it seems as if Airbus have become a model of inefficiency...

They need to seriously get their act together... The A350xwb has to be a good plane...it better be!



"Up the Irons!"
User currently offlineUALMMFlyer From United States of America, joined Dec 2005, 135 posts, RR: 0
Reply 14, posted (7 years 10 months 1 week 6 days 16 hours ago) and read 6850 times:

Quoting Scouseflyer (Reply 11):
You can bet you bottom dollar (quite an appropriate phrase considering response 2!) that AB costed this out very carefully in that the extra sales for the XWB would more than cover this cost.

Could you explain your statement in more detail? Are you saying Airbus will build in the the penalty $ in the selling prices of the A350XWB? I always thought market decides the price. Also, where are the extra sales? The plane is not even launched yet?



Treat others like you'd like to be treated!
User currently offlineScouseflyer From United Kingdom, joined Apr 2006, 3390 posts, RR: 9
Reply 15, posted (7 years 10 months 1 week 6 days 16 hours ago) and read 6798 times:

Quoting UALMMFlyer (Reply 14):
Could you explain your statement in more detail? Are you saying Airbus will build in the the penalty $ in the selling prices of the A350XWB? I always thought market decides the price. Also, where are the extra sales? The plane is not even launched yet?

What I meant was that they wouldn't have gone ahead and cancelled a plane the A350NB that had 100 signed orders (and thus probably half way to its Break-even point) and some more expressions of interest if the didn't have much more interest and almost guarenteed sales of the replacement (obviously there are no guarentees in this world but as close as). The profit for those sales would cover the cost of the possible cancellations - $1B is also the may cost that this change could cost.

My opinion is that if the A380 mess hadn't happened the XWB would have been launched earlier and it would probably have more than those 100 sales already - say 70 conversions (30 cancelled), 20 for SQ and maybe 30 for LH or someone similar.


User currently offlineStitch From United States of America, joined Jul 2005, 30978 posts, RR: 86
Reply 16, posted (7 years 10 months 1 week 6 days 16 hours ago) and read 6786 times:
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If payments are indeed going to be upwards of $1 billion, that could bode well for the number of A350 customers who have agreed to continue with the A350XWB since that's over $5 million per frame based on orders of the A350.

These payments could be a pre-emptive move to try and lock customers into the A350XWB program should Boeing be able to free up slots in the early 2010's and then offer them to current A350XWB customers.

It could also be an internal acknowledgement that 2013 might be "optimistic" for an EIS and Boeing could still win orders even without new slots as the EIS is pushed back, so they need to try and lock the customers in now rather then risk them later.


User currently offline474218 From United States of America, joined Oct 2005, 6340 posts, RR: 9
Reply 17, posted (7 years 10 months 1 week 6 days 16 hours ago) and read 6669 times:

Quoting Revelation (Thread starter):
Quote:
Penalty payments to airlines that ordered a now-abandoned, less ambitious version of the A350 could reach up to €800 million (US$1 billion) in the last quarter of the year, Ring said.



Quoting Katekebo (Reply 3):
Most likely these penalty payments won't be made in cash, but will be applied as discounts toward the A350XWB price. Only the customers who decide to cancel the orders for the A350 could get a cash payment. While it's bad news for Airbus finances, using the money to discount the price of the A350XWB is the best way out - airlines will get a more capable airplane for less, and Airbus will be able to defer the cashflow impact several years down the road. I "guesstimate" $10m or so discount per frame.

If Airbus is only giving discounts off the price of the A358XWB and not paying cash. Please explain why it will cost them $1 billion in the last quarter of this year?


User currently offlineScouseflyer From United Kingdom, joined Apr 2006, 3390 posts, RR: 9
Reply 18, posted (7 years 10 months 1 week 6 days 16 hours ago) and read 6642 times:

Quoting 474218 (Reply 17):

If Airbus is only giving discounts off the price of the A358XWB and not paying cash. Please explain why it will cost them $1 billion in the last quarter of this year?

As far as I understand - this is a known cost so they need to account for it now - plus if they get all of the cr@p out of the way in one go figures later on look better. Someone who understands accounting might want to try and explain better that I did!


User currently offlineOsiris30 From Barbados, joined Sep 2006, 3192 posts, RR: 25
Reply 19, posted (7 years 10 months 1 week 6 days 16 hours ago) and read 6642 times:

Quoting Wingman (Reply 4):
It is shocking to see the share price not get battered some more today.

That's like because Spain and Russia are buying which is supporting the price.

Quoting 474218 (Reply 17):
If Airbus is only giving discounts off the price of the A358XWB and not paying cash. Please explain why it will cost them $1 billion in the last quarter of this year?

Indeed. These look like cash payments in addition to any future discounts. Otherwise said costs would be recognized down the road against those purchases.

This looks to be a cash out the door type of thing.



I don't care what you think of my opinion. It's my opinion, so have a nice day :)
User currently offlineOsiris30 From Barbados, joined Sep 2006, 3192 posts, RR: 25
Reply 20, posted (7 years 10 months 1 week 6 days 16 hours ago) and read 6626 times:

Quoting Scouseflyer (Reply 18):
As far as I understand - this is a known cost so they need to account for it now - plus if they get all of the cr@p out of the way in one go figures later on look better. Someone who understands accounting might want to try and explain better that I did!

I don't think that is correct. If they costs are being applied as discounts I don't think they have to be explicitly accounted for anywhere. I amy be wrong though, it's been forever since I've looked into this sort of thing.



I don't care what you think of my opinion. It's my opinion, so have a nice day :)
User currently offlineFlysherwood From United States of America, joined Jul 2006, 1115 posts, RR: 0
Reply 21, posted (7 years 10 months 1 week 6 days 15 hours ago) and read 6562 times:

Quoting Scouseflyer (Reply 11):
Or they could just be flailing about with no clue!

I would bet this to be the case!!! In another thread I stated that the heads of BAE deserve bonuses for life for getting out when they did and walking away with $2 billion!


User currently offlineJacobin777 From United States of America, joined Sep 2004, 14968 posts, RR: 59
Reply 22, posted (7 years 10 months 1 week 6 days 15 hours ago) and read 6456 times:

I find it funny only a certain amount of people could take such bad news and "spin" it into good..

Airbus is in a HUGE problem..they are losing billions and don't even have an answer yet for plane which is turning out to be the fastest selling widebody plane in history....

Their debt might be getting downgrading, making it much harder to raise needed capital.

"EADS May Suffer Ratings Cut After Losing FedEx Order (Update1) "

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?p...601087&sid=at.tp3fJL1gA&refer=home

There is tons of political bickering between countries, and other countries such as Russia are meddling their hands now and trying to become an influencing factor...not to mention, the government of countries such as Spain are purchasing more shares to gain more influence....

I don't know how anyone could put a positive spin on this...

Airbus must be privatised, otherwise it will not get out of this situation....



"Up the Irons!"
User currently offlineN328KF From United States of America, joined May 2004, 6484 posts, RR: 3
Reply 23, posted (7 years 10 months 1 week 6 days 15 hours ago) and read 6402 times:

Quoting Jacobin777 (Reply 22):
"EADS May Suffer Ratings Cut After Losing FedEx Order (Update1) "

As I stated in another thread, this would be EADS' second ratings cut in a month. Boeing has had one bump in that time. Both of them started at the same rating.



When they call the roll in the Senate, the Senators do not know whether to answer 'Present' or 'Not guilty.' T.Roosevelt
User currently offlineOsiris30 From Barbados, joined Sep 2006, 3192 posts, RR: 25
Reply 24, posted (7 years 10 months 1 week 6 days 14 hours ago) and read 6317 times:

Quoting Jacobin777 (Reply 22):
Their debt might be getting downgrading, making it much harder to raise needed capital.

It also drives up their costs to their end customers, as the development money becomes more 'expensive' and as such the R&D budget becomes more expensive.



I don't care what you think of my opinion. It's my opinion, so have a nice day :)
25 Post contains images Stitch : It's honestly not "spin" on my part, but trying to look at it from more then just one particular angle.
26 NoWorries : The original consortium seemed to do quite well (A320, A330). What was the rationale for the EADS/BAE subsidiary -- it seems to have hurt more than i
27 Glom : With Airbus being completely boned at the moment, it is only a matter of time before Boeing becomes complacent again like they did in the 90s. They wi
28 Stitch : I would prefer to hope that as Boeing appears to have learned from their past difficulties, so will Airbus from these, and going forward both compani
29 AirFrnt : Bear in mind that accounting doesn't just let you take random charges in the future against the balance sheet with no reckoning. Airbus tends to take
30 AirFrnt : Airbus has actually done a pretty good job managing their credit rating to this point. They can afford a few more downgrades before capatal is unavai
31 Katekebo : The whole issue is that Airbus may be building great airplanes and have a full house of magnificent engineers, but from the business management point
32 Ikramerica : Part of this points squarely at Leahy and the deals he was making, and the management who wanted so desperately to outsell Boeing that it seems that w
33 Post contains images Thebry : These customers should cancel, receive cash payment, then apply that cash towards 787s. Odds are they'd still receive their 787s before the second-ge
34 RIXrat : Katekebo, Check me if I'm being naive, but earlier you said that the $1 billion in penalty payments would work out to be about $10 million discount pe
35 Post contains images Jacobin777 : I'm not so sure if there even is a positive angle.. which makes it uncompetitive against other manufacturers...... Good grief, I had no idea this is
36 Bringiton : Why do you think that a boeing downturn is such obvious? Boeing seems to be playing the right cards at the moment with the 787 dreamliner which its r
37 Katekebo : I'm not sure that I understand how did you get to the 1000 frames break-even point, but certainly at $12b development costs Airbus will need to sell
38 Ruscoe : Agreed, and I am becoming increasingly concerned that Gallios is a watered down version of Foregeard. Also Airbus has formed a "Presidents Office" co
39 Shenzhen : It would appear that the quote from the above article has changed, as this is what just read... quote EADS could take A350-related charges of as much
40 AirFrnt : That makes a bit more sense. I suspect that is the charge that Airbus will take if they cancel the A350.
41 Ruscoe : To me this means that cancellation of the program is under consideration, and the CFO ispointing out the cost of this. Still seems that the penalties
42 Osiris30 : Well it puts them at a significant disadvantage. They can either match prices and give up margin dollars, or keep the margin and lose sales.. which a
43 Post contains images Glideslope : OMG, could you believe Spitzer at Airbus? They would not be able to get off the crapper!!!!
44 Glideslope : Remember the word "Russia."
45 Shenzhen : This is probably having an affect on the narrow body sales this year. Airbus might be trying to increase margins on the A320 to cover all the widebod
46 Post contains images Jacobin777 : That's right..and I've been saying for years that if I was an investor in EADS stock, I would be mad as hell... While EADS's might get back into the
47 Gbfra : Roughly 70 per cent of EADS-shares are owned by private investors. How come some people think EADS is owned by governments? That's contradicted by fac
48 Shenzhen : Isn't the US the largest market for commercial airplanes (won't even mention military)? Cheers
49 PVG : Just wait! The restatement of earnings for past years announcement is on the way! By the way, a billion here, a billion there, pretty soon you're tal
50 Gbfra : Boeing (and formerly MDD) have sold many more jets to European airlines than Airbus has ever sold in the US. In the theoretical case of a trade war (w
51 Tootallsd : I think the isssue of the $1 billion charge is not a cash payment at all. I believe, but have not confirmed, that they capitalize (put costs on their
52 AirFrnt : Have you looked at the durable orders spreadsheet that comes out each quarter in the US, and yearly in the EU. There is a huge chunk of change in tha
53 474218 : If the above is true, and I believe it is. Why has French Prime Minster Dominique de Villepin announced on Wednesday that "HE" plans to visit Airbus
54 Post contains links Stitch : But EADS/Airbus is making money. They had a €1.7 billion profit on €34.2 billion in revenue for 2005, which built on a €1.2 billion profit on
55 Gbfra : Well, Mr. de Villepin is still hoping to run for presidency next year so he is trying to feel attached to an important part of French industry. He is
56 Post contains links Jacobin777 : That is incorrect Gbfra...you are way off base... EADS is controlled 30% by the Société de gestion de l'aéronautique, de la défense et de l'espac
57 PVG : He was only forced out after the substantial disaster that is the A380 and the stock scandal made him political unpalatable. From what I've read, he
58 Gbfra : Jacobin777: I think you are incorrect. Which is easy to show: The French state owns 15 per cent (half of the 30 percent together with Lagardère). The
59 Jacobin777 : But you stated... To which I stated you are incorrect because they are indeed owned by various governments..right now to the tune of approximately 25
60 Gbfra : I cannot see your point at all. Daimler and Lagardère are private companies. Why do you add their participations to those owned by governments?
61 PolymerPlane : If Société de gestion de l'aéronautique, de la défense et de l'espace owns 30% of EADS and French Government controls Société de gestion de l'a
62 Post contains images Jacobin777 : That was a side comment to which you are side tracking..why are you trying to deflect the argument? You stated that goverments do not own EADS (reply
63 Osiris30 : Oh come on.. you know as well as I do that a very large portion of that 70% is owned by private investors by controlled for all intents and purposes
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