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If NZ Drops HNL Who Else Will Operate?  
User currently offlineZKNBX From New Zealand, joined Jul 2006, 464 posts, RR: 0
Posted (7 years 8 months 2 weeks 6 days 9 hours ago) and read 4630 times:

Rumours continue that NZ will ditch HNL next year... so I am wondering, what people think regarding a successor. Surely somebody else (HA? CO? AC? QF/Jetstar?) will step into the market....

I also wonder what NZ will do about KIX considering the current yeilds, and wonder whether AKL-KIX will become AKL-NAN-KIX again... Any suggestions?

38 replies: All unread, showing first 25:
 
User currently offlineLaxintl From United States of America, joined May 2000, 24832 posts, RR: 46
Reply 1, posted (7 years 8 months 2 weeks 6 days 9 hours ago) and read 4619 times:

Suppose if any body it could be HA, but then again they are a little tight on airframes and have the 4 ex Delta 767 aircraft being received spoken for primarily reinforcing/reintroducing West Coast flights which were previously pruned.


From the desert to the sea, to all of Southern California
User currently offlineZKNBX From New Zealand, joined Jul 2006, 464 posts, RR: 0
Reply 2, posted (7 years 8 months 2 weeks 6 days 9 hours ago) and read 4595 times:

Yes... I know that too. Which makes me think that AC or Jetstar might be more likely... Continental seems like a longshot.

User currently offlineLaxintl From United States of America, joined May 2000, 24832 posts, RR: 46
Reply 3, posted (7 years 8 months 2 weeks 6 days 8 hours ago) and read 4567 times:

Quoting ZKNBX (Reply 2):
Jetstar

Does Australia hold bilateral traffic right to HNL via 3rd country as New Zealand?

Quoting ZKNBX (Reply 2):
AC

Doubtful. AC is working on shifting its South Pacific flying away from Hawaii and soon will begin a LAX-SYD nonstop.

Quoting ZKNBX (Reply 2):
Continental

Even more doubtful as the carrier has not displayed any interest in the S Pac for the last decade besides its Air Mike flying. I'd suspect any re-entry to the market would be directly from the mainland if ever, and not via Hawaii.


What makes any service from Hawaii to down under difficult is the nature of the market being primarily a lower yielding leisure market.
A couple years back I got to meet the QF sales manager in Hawaii whom was lamenting how HNL which once was an important and quite busy station for the airline could barely support a single daily flight on its own then. Off course since, we have now all come to learn that QF's future in HNL is being handed to Jetstar.
Accordingly it would not surprise me if NZ could not profitably support Hawaii either as a point to point route.



From the desert to the sea, to all of Southern California
User currently offlineVHVXB From Australia, joined Apr 2006, 5523 posts, RR: 18
Reply 4, posted (7 years 8 months 2 weeks 6 days 8 hours ago) and read 4558 times:

Quoting Laxintl (Reply 3):
Does Australia hold bilateral traffic right to HNL via 3rd country as New Zealand?

Well QF does MEL-AKL-LAX. I don't think we will see a JQ service anytime from AKL.


User currently offlineAxio From New Zealand, joined Jul 2006, 313 posts, RR: 0
Reply 5, posted (7 years 8 months 2 weeks 6 days 7 hours ago) and read 4481 times:

Well sure it may not be non-stop, but kayak.com gave me several options, the most direct is Air Pacific with a few hours in NAN. Alternatively there are connections through Sydney.

Anyway, there has been alot of talk around here about Freedom picking up the AirNZ 767s, and flying the AKL-HNL route low-cost tourist model airline style.

ax



Time for a new viewing deck at AKL!
User currently offlineNzrich From New Zealand, joined Dec 2005, 1521 posts, RR: 1
Reply 6, posted (7 years 8 months 2 weeks 6 days 6 hours ago) and read 4420 times:

Quoting Laxintl (Reply 3):

What makes any service from Hawaii to down under difficult is the nature of the market being primarily a lower yielding leisure market.
A couple years back I got to meet the QF sales manager in Hawaii whom was lamenting how HNL which once was an important and quite busy station for the airline could barely support a single daily flight on its own then. Off course since, we have now all come to learn that QF's future in HNL is being handed to Jetstar.
Accordingly it would not surprise me if NZ could not profitably support Hawaii either as a point to point route.

Probably more likely that NZ has a multitude of south pacific islands that are a lot cheaper than Hawaii and a lot closer also.. NZ services 9 pacific islands all under 5 hrs flying.. Thats probably the main reason why new zealanders dont go to hawaii.. If you were in Miami what would you most likely choose a holiday in the carribean or a holiday in another island 9 hrours flying away??



"Pride of the pacific"
User currently offlineMotorHussy From New Zealand, joined Mar 2000, 3135 posts, RR: 9
Reply 7, posted (7 years 8 months 2 weeks 6 days 5 hours ago) and read 4387 times:

AC/NZ codeshare going YVR-HNL-AKL would be good to see (using one of AC's refitted 763's).

IMHO
MH



come visit the south pacific
User currently offlineVHVXB From Australia, joined Apr 2006, 5523 posts, RR: 18
Reply 8, posted (7 years 8 months 2 weeks 6 days 5 hours ago) and read 4373 times:

Quoting MotorHussy (Reply 7):
AC/NZ codeshare going YVR-HNL-AKL would be good to see (using one of AC's refitted 763's).

Same here. Instead of the 2 daily services to SYD during the southern summer it would be good to see AC have the 2nd service go to AKL


User currently offlineKoruman From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 9, posted (7 years 8 months 2 weeks 6 days 5 hours ago) and read 4366 times:

Firstly, I think that Air NZ will retain AKL-HNL, even if it uses Zeal767 to operate it.

Secondly, after years of contraction, Hawaii is again expanding rapidly as a destination for Aussies, and may well do so for Kiwis too.

Thirdly, Air Canada could coordinate its Vancouver - Honolulu - Sydney timetable with an Air New Zealand operated Toronto - Honolulu - Auckland flight, and share codes on both. That would create a one-stop service to both Vancouver and Toronto from Auckland.


User currently offline777ER From New Zealand, joined Dec 2003, 12082 posts, RR: 18
Reply 10, posted (7 years 8 months 2 weeks 6 days 5 hours ago) and read 4350 times:
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FORUM MODERATOR

Quoting Laxintl (Reply 3):
Quoting ZKNBX (Reply 2):
Jetstar

Does Australia hold bilateral traffic right to HNL via 3rd country as New Zealand?

QF currently operate LAX flights from Aussie via AKL. There was a news article on One News a few nights ago about LCC in NZ, and one of the people interviewed was Allan Joyce (JQs CEO). He said JQ is interested in Long Haul from NZ and CHC was the main airport of choice. He did talk about about more new Aussie services from other main NZ airports


User currently offlineSunriseValley From Canada, joined Jul 2004, 4859 posts, RR: 5
Reply 11, posted (7 years 8 months 2 weeks 6 days 4 hours ago) and read 4292 times:

Quoting Koruman (Reply 9):
hat would create a one-stop service to both Vancouver and Toronto from Auckland.

The YYZ-HNL-YYZ service was a poor performer under CAI and was dropped quite soon after AC acquired CAI. I used to travel YYZ-HNL-AKL but the middle of the night transfer was a killer. My preference now is SFO.


User currently offlineCchan From New Zealand, joined May 2003, 1759 posts, RR: 2
Reply 12, posted (7 years 8 months 2 weeks 6 days 3 hours ago) and read 4278 times:

Quoting ZKNBX (Thread starter):
Rumours continue that NZ will ditch HNL next year... so I am wondering, what people think regarding a successor.

My guess is no one. Why would someone pick up a route that another airline just dump because of low yield. Isn't it a bit risky to do that?

Quoting ZKNBX (Thread starter):
I also wonder what NZ will do about KIX considering the current yeilds

Back in the days when KIX was operated with a 767 a few times a week, I had been on that route a few times. The JL codeshare seats (a small proportion, about maybe 50 seats at most) were nearly always full, and was difficult to book. Passenger loads vary a lot, I have been on one which was 80% full, and also on one which was 30% full!


User currently offlineAustralia1 From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 13, posted (7 years 8 months 2 weeks 5 days 23 hours ago) and read 4161 times:

Why not UA?

Surely they could find a 763ER, which means they could then offer connecting service AKL/HNL/DEN, thereby avoiding awful hubs of SFO & LAX. If pax wanting to go to SFO or LAX in one direction, they could use existing NZ services.

Such a service could start as twice a week & build from there.

Plenty of pax would love to avoid awful west coast hubs & in northern winter, makes it easy to get to Colorado & other points served nonstop from DEN which is a major hub !!!


User currently offlineAerokiwi From New Zealand, joined Jul 2000, 2683 posts, RR: 4
Reply 14, posted (7 years 8 months 2 weeks 5 days 16 hours ago) and read 4001 times:

Quoting Cchan (Reply 12):
My guess is no one. Why would someone pick up a route that another airline just dump because of low yield. Isn't it a bit risky to do that?

Air Pacific flew WKL-HNL nonstop with a 763 a few years back. I think it was twice weekly. I could see NZ codesharing on that if it were reintroduced, especially given the recent relationship with FJ between Nadi and LAX.


User currently offlinePlanetime From Singapore, joined Mar 2006, 719 posts, RR: 0
Reply 15, posted (7 years 8 months 2 weeks 5 days 16 hours ago) and read 3957 times:

Quoting ZKNBX (Thread starter):
Rumours continue that NZ will ditch HNL next year... so I am wondering, what people think regarding a successor. Surely somebody else (HA? CO? AC? QF/Jetstar?) will step into the market....

What is the reason for ditching this route no passengers or no profits?

Sad to see if NZ withdraws from HNL. Did NZ use to fly 747's to HNL?

AS far as OZ market, I heard Hawaii is growing as of couple fo years back... is it still the same case. And how about between NZ and HNL?


User currently offlineMultimark From Canada, joined Jul 2006, 796 posts, RR: 0
Reply 16, posted (7 years 8 months 2 weeks 5 days 16 hours ago) and read 3930 times:

Quoting Laxintl (Reply 3):
Doubtful. AC is working on shifting its South Pacific flying away from Hawaii and soon will begin a LAX-SYD nonstop.

Not quite. AC is introducing YYZ-LAX-SYD, hoping to capitalize on LA-Sydney traffic to make it viable. It has not been stated that YVR-SYD will go non-stop. AC has wanted to get to AKL, this would be a good way to do it. And if the YVR-SYD route were to go nonstop, YVR-HNL-AKL would replace that lost lift to Hawaii, a destination doing very well with the rise in the CDN dollar vs the USD.


User currently offlineJfk777 From United States of America, joined Aug 2006, 8280 posts, RR: 7
Reply 17, posted (7 years 8 months 2 weeks 5 days 16 hours ago) and read 3920 times:
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Sad to see Honolulu reduced to such an insignificant destination for Aussie and Kiwi travel. Hawaiian based airlines are the best to keep up the service. With the obvious preference from Air NZ & Qantas for nonstop to LAX service, the service via HNL is a dinosaur. I wish Jetstar luck with the Aussie surfers going to Hawaii for their holidays.

User currently offlineLaxintl From United States of America, joined May 2000, 24832 posts, RR: 46
Reply 18, posted (7 years 8 months 2 weeks 5 days 15 hours ago) and read 3866 times:

Quoting Multimark (Reply 16):
Not quite. AC is introducing YYZ-LAX-SYD, hoping to capitalize on LA-Sydney traffic to make it viable. It has not been stated that YVR-SYD will go non-stop. AC has wanted to get to AKL, this would be a good way to do it. And if the YVR-SYD route were to go nonstop, YVR-HNL-AKL would replace that lost lift to Hawaii, a destination doing very well with the rise in the CDN dollar vs the USD.

Actually, AC has stated publicly that its looking to serve the South Pacific solely on a nonstop basis from North America. This comment was made at either an earning or shareholders meeting conference call as part of a reply to a question regarding Air Canada's bold use of new bilateral rights to launch the LAX-SYD service upon arrival of the 777 fleet. It was mentioned specifically that routing thru Hawaii was a loosing proposition for the airline as it could neither properly support the Australia nor the Hawaii leisure market adequately by mixing them on a single aircraft.

As far as AKL, there really is no need for AC to place its own metal on the route as it can access the market quite well via connections at LAX to ANZ daily flights. Both AC and NZ are under a single roof at LAX and would benefit from AC's plan to build a bank of flights from YVR, YEG, YYC, YUL and YYZ which all arrive in time to connect to the new SYD service and likewise would work to connect onto ANZ services to AKL aswell.



From the desert to the sea, to all of Southern California
User currently offlineRoseFlyer From United States of America, joined Feb 2004, 9495 posts, RR: 52
Reply 19, posted (7 years 8 months 2 weeks 5 days 15 hours ago) and read 3860 times:

I personally think that Hawaiian is the only option if NZ pulls out. The route has been served for a long time and has seen many 747s. UA and CO used to serve the route. Ever since the 747-400 began allowing nonstop flights accross the Pacific, HNL has lost a lot of traffic as it is no longer a hub. It is well served as a destination, but by planes in lower yielding configurations with plenty of economy seats instead of the prides of the fleets.

Quoting Planetime (Reply 15):
. Did NZ use to fly 747's to HNL?

NZ use to use HNL as a fuel stop on its way to LAX before the 744s came and they could operate the route nonstop. AKL-HNL-LAX was served for many years with 747-200s. Those were also the days when NZ flew LAX-LHR and LAX-FRA.



If you have never designed an airplane part before, let the real designers do the work!
User currently offlineKiwiandrew From New Zealand, joined Jun 2005, 8541 posts, RR: 13
Reply 20, posted (7 years 8 months 2 weeks 5 days 10 hours ago) and read 3703 times:
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Quoting ZKNBX (Thread starter):
Surely somebody else (HA? CO? AC? QF/Jetstar?) will step into the market....

why ? who took over AKL-KIX or AKL-NGO when NZ dropped them ? if a route gets dropped it is usually because the returns on the route are not sufficient to warrant the investment , not particularly inviting for someone else to try their luck at . The only carrier I could see giving it a shot would be HA , but frankly , I think they can use their limited capacity to better effect elsewhere on their network



Moderation in all things ... including moderation ;-)
User currently offlinePlanemanofnz From New Zealand, joined Sep 2005, 1675 posts, RR: 0
Reply 21, posted (7 years 8 months 2 weeks 5 days 10 hours ago) and read 3691 times:
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Jetstar will in-definately be the succesor. However, although it is likely NZ will terminate HNL non stop from AKL they will most likely re route it through RAR, NAN or APW.

I would love CO, HA or AC to come to AKL though!


User currently offlineUAL777UK From United Kingdom, joined Nov 2005, 3356 posts, RR: 1
Reply 22, posted (7 years 8 months 2 weeks 5 days 7 hours ago) and read 3604 times:

Quoting Australia1 (Reply 13):
Why not UA?

Surely they could find a 763ER, which means they could then offer connecting service AKL/HNL/DEN, thereby avoiding awful hubs of SFO & LAX. If pax wanting to go to SFO or LAX in one direction, they could use existing NZ services.

Such a service could start as twice a week & build from there.

Plenty of pax would love to avoid awful west coast hubs & in northern winter, makes it easy to get to Colorado & other points served nonstop from DEN which is a major hub !!!

I would love to see UA back in AKL but I just cannot see it, not in the short term and if they did I would think its more likely to be out of SFO or LAX


User currently onlineViscount724 From Switzerland, joined Oct 2006, 24823 posts, RR: 22
Reply 23, posted (7 years 8 months 2 weeks 5 days 6 hours ago) and read 3565 times:

South Pacific operations via HNL have always been low-yield due to the almost total lack of business traffic, especially since nonstops from the west coast became the primary routing to the South Pacific when the 747-400 arrived. If NZ can't make HNL-AKL profitable it's unlikely anyone else can either.

Re possible AC service, their predecessor CP Air/Canadian operated YVR-HNL-AKL off and on for many years in the past, equally unprofitably. I doubt service to New Zealand is very high on AC's list of priorities.


User currently offlineKiwiandrew From New Zealand, joined Jun 2005, 8541 posts, RR: 13
Reply 24, posted (7 years 8 months 2 weeks 5 days 6 hours ago) and read 3557 times:
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Quoting Viscount724 (Reply 23):
. I doubt service to New Zealand is very high on AC's list of priorities.

.... and if it was I would expect it to be
YVR-AKL nonstop rather than having a stop in HNL



Moderation in all things ... including moderation ;-)
25 Cchan : But that is not AKL-HNL non-stop. If we count connecting flights, then there are more choices.
26 Multimark : Do you have a link to something stating this?
27 777fan : I would love to see UA fill the gap as well. It'd be cool to see UA expand here at HNL. IMO, there's nothing wrong with UA's hub at SFO (the concours
28 Laxintl : You should be able to access old conference calls and presentations on the Air Canada/ACE Aviation investors web site. Timing of the event was relati
29 SunriseValley : These are NOT in place yet. It requires a renegotiation of the Canada-Australia bilateral agreement. I was told by an impeccable source that Australi
30 ZKNBX : I thought that talk was long ago forgotten... and it was decided NOT to send the 763s to Freedom. Not aware there is any discussion about this at all
31 ZKNBX : When? I thought it was from April, but there is nothing in the Star timetable yet.
32 777ER : Apparantly the aussies are dragging their heels with this, so it might be delayed. Aussies protecting QF?
33 Cchan : I am very pleased to hear that. Zeal 320 operating 763s?! If it is Zeal 767, maybe.
34 Aerokiwi : Not quite sure what you mean by that (the codeshare or the old FJ flight?) but I did mistype in my post. FJ used to fly AKL-HNL nonstop. I'd pick the
35 Post contains images Axio : Okie dokie. Missed that part. Sweet
36 Cchan : It's probably the typo. But if FJ dropped it, probably because it is not profitable, then are they likely to try again?
37 Australia1 : Only 1 daily now, we believe. Sounds very similar to old Canada 3000 route YYZ/YVR/HNL/BNE/SYD/AKL/RAR/HNL/YVR/YYZ !!!
38 ZKNBX : EXACTLY... which is WHY NZ should re-enter the route because nobody can stop NZ from operating SYD-LAX (or BNE-LAX or MEL-LAX) for that matter.
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