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US/DL Merger: Remember This In The Future  
User currently offlineWingspan From United States of America, joined Oct 2004, 70 posts, RR: 0
Posted (7 years 5 months 4 days 11 hours ago) and read 8362 times:

After reading hundreds of posts on this site regarding this little game of management chess, this one has hit the nail on the head. From the DL responds to US discussion:

Quoting MD-90 (Reply 103):
Seems to me like US just wants to eliminate an annoying competitor. Like AA and Reno Air, but on a vastly larger scale.

 checkmark 

In short, BBBBBBBBBBBBINGO!!!! Cliffs notes for anyone with half a brain and not an airline wannabe or armchair QB. Simply put from Airline Mergers 101:

Fleet commonality: Not there. There will even be sub fleets of the aircraft shared.

Route Network: Just a little overlap: only the entire east coast. Each hub cannabilizes one another's traffic on both the east and west coast.

DP is not the most versed man, but he's no fool. But a newsflash to all airline employees: If you thinks he cares about you and your personal situation or airline corporate culture, then you're the ones who actually deserve the pay cuts given from the past five years.

He probably figures this has a cold chance in hell of actually going through,
but if it does, he eliminates a competitor gnawing at their principal revenue markets. US (Now DL) would continue to grow internationally, keep only the principal hubs, and layoff the excess labor. The corporate culture would be the same artificial BS that always wins in situations like this, with each employee group and seniority system left to fend for themselves in a legal sespool that will take at least two years to appease through standardized contracts.

Afterward, should he be thwarted in the attempt, NW will be next in line. Of the two, the DOJ would move much faster to approve this, but I suspect he is motivated by something else. Namely to please a European aircraft manufacturer who heavily invested in it during its darkest hours and, if combined, would stand to benefit greatly from an international carrier needing to place massive orders for both narrowbody and widebody aircraft in under a five year time window to replace the majority of its aging fleet. Can you smell a massive shot in the arm in the North American market to that manufacturer? Checkmate.



Regards,



Wingspan


Over the years, I've found that common sense is not that common.
38 replies: All unread, showing first 25:
 
User currently offlineFCYTravis From United States of America, joined Sep 2005, 1191 posts, RR: 6
Reply 1, posted (7 years 5 months 4 days 11 hours ago) and read 8366 times:

Quoting Wingspan (Thread starter):
Fleet commonality: Not there. There will even be sub fleets of the aircraft shared.

Again, fleet commonality is overstated. Once you get to fleets that number in the hundreds, it really doesn't matter, you've got to have all that infrastructure in place anyway.



USAir A321 service now departing for SFO with fuel stops in CAK, COS and RNO. Enjoy your flight.
User currently offlineTimboflier215 From United Kingdom, joined May 2005, 1317 posts, RR: 1
Reply 2, posted (7 years 5 months 4 days 10 hours ago) and read 8079 times:

Quoting Wingspan (Thread starter):
Namely to please a European aircraft manufacturer who heavily invested in it during its darkest hours and, if combined, would stand to benefit greatly from an international carrier needing to place massive orders for both narrowbody and widebody aircraft in under a five year time window to replace the majority of its aging fleet. Can you smell a massive shot in the arm in the North American market to that manufacturer? Checkmate.

Don't you just love conspiracy theories?! Are you seriously suggesting AIRBUS is behind this??


User currently offlineWingspan From United States of America, joined Oct 2004, 70 posts, RR: 0
Reply 3, posted (7 years 5 months 4 days 10 hours ago) and read 8080 times:

Quoting FCYTravis (Reply 1):

Again, fleet commonality is overstated. Once you get to fleets that number in the hundreds, it really doesn't matter, you've got to have all that infrastructure in place anyway.

Attention Armchair QB: Think maintenance, think spares, think crew training, and then think again before saying it really doesn't matter.

Quoting Timboflier215 (Reply 2):

Don't you just love conspiracy theories?! Are you seriously suggesting AIRBUS is behind this??

Ah, Toolbox, I never said they were behind anything, only that they stood to benefit from it, on a grand scale. Maybe your view is clouded from across the pond due to the fact that you are still a student, but the airline manufacturing industry is a global business. If you think for a moment that companies don't expect favors in return for other favors, then I suggest you focus more clearly on your studies at Leicester.


Regards,


Wingspan



Over the years, I've found that common sense is not that common.
User currently offlineFCYTravis From United States of America, joined Sep 2005, 1191 posts, RR: 6
Reply 4, posted (7 years 5 months 4 days 10 hours ago) and read 8080 times:

Quoting Wingspan (Reply 3):
Attention Armchair QB: Think maintenance, think spares, think crew training, and then think again before saying it really doesn't matter.

Armchair QB? Haha. Dude, you're posting on an airline forum. We're ALL armchair QBs, including your egotistical self. Unless, that is, you have experience in the boardroom of a major airline which you'd like to explain to us.

Doug Parker has said repeatedly that he is not particularly concerned about commonality because all the subfleets are extremely large.

As for your nutball Airbus conspiracy theory, Doug has also said repeatedly that US Airways is talking to both Airbus and Boeing about fleet replacement for the 737s - and he's also stressed the fact that he does not want US Airways to become a captive customer of Airbus. Thanks to the A350 debacle, US is losing its opportunities to open up Asian and European service from PHX.

Heck, I think half the reason US is buying DL is to get a hold of Delta's vast widebody fleet. Airbus can kiss that A350 "order" goodbye.

[Edited 2006-11-16 22:10:47]


USAir A321 service now departing for SFO with fuel stops in CAK, COS and RNO. Enjoy your flight.
User currently offlineKSUpilot From United States of America, joined Jul 2006, 656 posts, RR: 0
Reply 5, posted (7 years 5 months 4 days 10 hours ago) and read 8081 times:

Quoting FCYTravis (Reply 4):
Doug Parker has said repeatedly that he is not particularly concerned about commonality because all the subfleets are extremely large.

And old! One of DLs largest sub-fleet is on its lest leg (sadly) the MD-80. I love the Mad Dogs but it is nearly a sure thing they will go if there is a merger.


User currently offlinePetazulu From United States of America, joined Jan 2003, 701 posts, RR: 1
Reply 6, posted (7 years 5 months 4 days 9 hours ago) and read 7900 times:

Wingspan,

Did you just cal someone a toolbox? How old are you? Why are you so bitter and why in the world do you think you know better than anyone else what is going on? You sound seriously deluded with your own gradeur.


User currently offlineWingspan From United States of America, joined Oct 2004, 70 posts, RR: 0
Reply 7, posted (7 years 5 months 4 days 9 hours ago) and read 7796 times:

Quoting KSUpilot (Reply 5):
I love the Mad Dogs but it is nearly a sure thing they will go if there is a merger.

I love the MD-88s too, and you're right, they would be among the very first to go in the initial, along with the US 733s/734s, and 762s, probably at the next D-check intervals or earlier. The 75s get a reprieve and would probably remain separate subfleets for some time because the lift requirement would be so sorely needed.


Oh yes, and to this mess...

Quoting FCYTravis (Reply 4):
Armchair QB? Haha. Dude, you're posting on an airline forum. We're ALL armchair QBs, including your egotistical self.

No, Travis. You see, some people who post here are actually in the airline business, and have the accompanying experience and industry insight that goes along with it.

Quoting FCYTravis (Reply 4):
Unless, that is, you have experience in the boardroom of a major airline which you'd like to explain to us.

To be polite, I don't have to explain squat to you. This has little to do with personal ego, but with relevance. To me, your opinion is about as valid as a kid who boards a 74 or triple and thinks "Gee, I can fly it in FS, so I can do it here too." If I need a PR lackey for something, I'll remember who to call.

Quoting Petazulu (Reply 6):
How old are you?



Sir, you can view my profile just as I can view yours.

Quoting Petazulu (Reply 6):

Why are you so bitter and why in the world do you think you know better than anyone else what is going on?

Because I'm actually in the business in a capacity that this discussion pertains to. Sorry amigo, but being a consultant who is a FF on the shuttle from LGA doesn't make you knowledgeable in this industry.

Quoting Petazulu (Reply 6):

You sound seriously deluded with your own gradeur.

If having delusions of grandeur is being informed, insult the few left on these boards who want to engage in meaningful debate and they won't be on this board for long, they'll just stay over at pprune and leave this place for the, ah, worldly consultants.  Big grin



Regards,




Wingspan



Over the years, I've found that common sense is not that common.
User currently offlineFCYTravis From United States of America, joined Sep 2005, 1191 posts, RR: 6
Reply 8, posted (7 years 5 months 4 days 9 hours ago) and read 7735 times:

Ah yes, the ad-hominem card. Quite useful when you can't actually accept the fact that people might disagree with your assertions.

Here's a clue, Wingspan. This place is a Web forum. People discuss things. They agree. They disagree. They talk. They debate, civilly and interestingly. We share opinions and ideas. What they don't do is make proclamations and then attack anyone who dares to disagree with them as "omg armchair QB, you're worthless."

Wingspan, here's a another clue. I don't care who you are or what you do, you're an armchair QB on this issue. None of us are actually going to have any say in this US/DL merger mess, because none of us are part of US or DL management, nor are we part of the DL creditor committee. Nothing we say or do here will ultimately have any impact whatsoever on what happens.

Doug Parker could spend $100 billion to buy out DL and replace every single airframe in the combined fleet with Beechcraft 1900s, building new hubs in ICT, DUJ and CIC, and none of your bleating would change that in the slightest.

"Remember this in the future:" - We're all just armchair QBs dicking around on the Internet. Yourself included.

[Edited 2006-11-16 23:06:54]


USAir A321 service now departing for SFO with fuel stops in CAK, COS and RNO. Enjoy your flight.
User currently offlineBobnwa From United States of America, joined Dec 2000, 6346 posts, RR: 9
Reply 9, posted (7 years 5 months 4 days 9 hours ago) and read 7730 times:

Quoting Wingspan (Reply 7):
Because I'm actually in the business in a capacity that this discussion pertains to. Sorry amigo, but being a consultant who is a FF on the shuttle from LGA doesn't make you knowledgeable in this industry.

Your position in the airline business gives you special knowledge of the merger side of the business? I don't think so. How many merger discussion have you taken part in as part of yur job. Who were the carriers? What area regarding the mergers was your expertise in? You are coming across as a bit pompous.


User currently onlineLAXdude1023 From India, joined Sep 2006, 7320 posts, RR: 24
Reply 10, posted (7 years 5 months 4 days 9 hours ago) and read 7710 times:

Quoting FCYTravis (Reply 8):
Doug Parker could spend $100 billion to buy out DL and replace every single airframe in the combined fleet with Beechcraft 1900s, building new hubs in ICT, DUJ and CIC, and none of your bleating would change that in the slightest.

Now thats a good idea! What about ACT (Waco,TX) for US's new Asian hub??? Itll be nice to see a brand new fleet of A380's parked at the major airport they have there.  Silly



Stewed...Lewd...Crude...Irreverent...Belligerent
User currently offlineWingspan From United States of America, joined Oct 2004, 70 posts, RR: 0
Reply 11, posted (7 years 5 months 4 days 7 hours ago) and read 7576 times:

Quoting FCYTravis (Reply 8):
This place is a Web forum. People discuss things. They agree. They disagree. They talk. They debate, civilly and interestingly. We share opinions and ideas.

Sure, and that's the point.

Quoting FCYTravis (Reply 8):
What they don't do is make proclamations and then attack anyone who dares to disagree with them as "omg armchair QB, you're worthless."

Funny, If I were to go online to a forum regarding your chosen profession and BS my way along when others were actually trying to engage in industry debate, I'd feel out of place, and pretty stupid to boot. Not to mention that you would know things seemed out of place.

Quoting FCYTravis (Reply 8):
"Remember this in the future:" - We're all just armchair QBs dicking around on the Internet.

See previous response.

Quoting Bobnwa (Reply 9):

You are coming across as a bit pompous.

My apologies if that is the case. I am not an absolutist in my thoughts, but I must admit I get somewhat irritated when I'm looking to debate with industry people and armchair QBs are telling me I'm the one who is without a clue. Perhaps it was my choice in where I posted this thread.

Quoting Bobnwa (Reply 9):
Your position in the airline business gives you special knowledge of the merger side of the business? I don't think so. How many merger discussion have you taken part in as part of yur job. Who were the carriers? What area regarding the mergers was your expertise in?

Bobnwa, I said my position is in a capacity that this discussion pertains to. That did not nor was it intended to mean an attorney whose specialty is in airline antitrust/merger acquisitions, and perhaps the word indirectly should have been added (Hint: Think an ATP on a desk in operations research/network planning, etc. for a major.) I suppose I was hoping to have some interesting debate with, probably people like you, with an airline background. Oh well, life goes on. Best wishes to all.




Regards,





Wingspan



Over the years, I've found that common sense is not that common.
User currently offlineFCYTravis From United States of America, joined Sep 2005, 1191 posts, RR: 6
Reply 12, posted (7 years 5 months 4 days 7 hours ago) and read 7504 times:

Quoting Wingspan (Reply 11):
Funny, If I were to go online to a forum regarding your chosen profession and BS my way along when others were actually trying to engage in industry debate, I'd feel out of place, and pretty stupid to boot. Not to mention that you would know things seemed out of place.

If I went into a sports car racing forum and began making proclamations that I knew everything and that anyone who disagreed with me was a know-nothing armchair QB, I'd come off right pompous too. That's what you did here, whether you realize it or not.

You made a statement. I disagreed, respectfully, pointing out arguments made by someone else. You could have said "OK, well, I disagree with your position, and here's why, and here's where I think my industry knowledge applies." I might still have disagreed, but I would have been enlightened by your knowledge and respectful of what you do on a daily basis.

Instead, you chose to stoop to ad-hominem attacks on people designed to silence dissent. That's your choice - but it doesn't spread your wisdom, nor does it make anyone respect you.

No, I don't work in the industry. I (and my employer) just fund the paychecks of those who do, to the tune of more than 100,000 paid miles in the sky this year.

[Edited 2006-11-17 00:52:16]


USAir A321 service now departing for SFO with fuel stops in CAK, COS and RNO. Enjoy your flight.
User currently offlineTeamAmerica From United States of America, joined Sep 2006, 1761 posts, RR: 23
Reply 13, posted (7 years 5 months 4 days 7 hours ago) and read 7471 times:

Quoting Wingspan (Thread starter):
I suspect he is motivated by something else. Namely to please a European aircraft manufacturer who heavily invested in it during its darkest hours

 spit  Oh, Puh-leez! He is not "motivated" by any such thing. US has no obligation to Airbus at all. Remains to be seen if the A350 order goes to the XWB or gets cancelled altogether.



Failure is not an option; it's an outcome.
User currently offlinePlanemaker From Tuvalu, joined Aug 2003, 5925 posts, RR: 34
Reply 14, posted (7 years 5 months 4 days 7 hours ago) and read 7377 times:

Quoting Wingspan (Thread starter):
In short, BBBBBBBBBBBBINGO!!!!

It is abundantly obvious that when one company merges with another it is "eliminating a competitor." It is unavoidable.

Quoting Wingspan (Thread starter):
Fleet commonality: Not there. There will even be sub fleets of the aircraft shared.

Route Network: Just a little overlap: only the entire east coast. Each hub cannabilizes one another's traffic on both the east and west coast.

What, the $1.65-billion in annual savings from the merger that DP estimates isn't a good thing?

BTW, the fleet issue is dealt with over time (although there are immediate benefits). And where there is route overlap, aside from giving the merged carrier critical market share in a lot of markets, it is actually a good thing in many respects (e.g. it allows the merged carrier to swap in larger aircraft with lower CASMs - and get rid of a lot of 50-seat RJs, more effective use of ground assets, including slots, etc, etc.)



Nationalism is an infantile disease. It is the measles of mankind. - A. Einstein
User currently offlineBAW716 From United States of America, joined Nov 2003, 2026 posts, RR: 27
Reply 15, posted (7 years 5 months 4 days 7 hours ago) and read 7377 times:

Wingspan,
Read my post on the other thread. I think you have a very valid point.
baw716



David L. Lamb, fmr Area Mgr Alitalia SFO 1998-2002, fmr Regional Analyst SFO-UAL 1992-1998
User currently offlineTango-Bravo From United States of America, joined Jun 2001, 3788 posts, RR: 29
Reply 16, posted (7 years 5 months 4 days 7 hours ago) and read 7317 times:

Quoting Wingspan (Thread starter):
DP is not the most versed man, but he's no fool.

...but perhaps the HP/US merger has infected him with an acute case of egomania?


User currently offlineTimboflier215 From United Kingdom, joined May 2005, 1317 posts, RR: 1
Reply 17, posted (7 years 5 months 4 days 6 hours ago) and read 7239 times:

Quoting Wingspan (Reply 3):
I never said they were behind anything, only that they stood to benefit from it,

Indeed you did not explicitly say any such thing, but I thought that it was implied from the tone of your post. I apologise if I mis-read what you are trying to say. While Aiburs *may* gain from this (although that is highly dubious, as I personally believe the merged US/DL would buy Boeing), I can't imagine that they'd have any active role in the merger.

Quoting Tango-Bravo (Reply 16):

Surely the US board, and others within the company would have had a say on whether or not US should make an approach?? If it was just to please Doug Parker's eager, then hope they would say "no" to any offer being made.


User currently offlineCharger From United States of America, joined Oct 2006, 273 posts, RR: 0
Reply 18, posted (7 years 5 months 4 days 6 hours ago) and read 7182 times:

Quoting Wingspan (Thread starter):
DP is not the most versed man, but he's no fool. But a newsflash to all airline employees: If you thinks he cares about you and your personal situation or airline corporate culture, then you're the ones who actually deserve the pay cuts given from the past five years

Agree 100%. Parker could care less who stays or who go's. As long as his pockets are being lined with green stuff he don't care.

Quoting Wingspan (Thread starter):
He probably figures this has a cold chance in hell of actually going through,
but if it does, he eliminates a competitor gnawing at their principal revenue markets.

Or at least slowing down their expansion plans for a while.

Quoting Wingspan (Thread starter):
Namely to please a European aircraft manufacturer who heavily invested in it during its darkest hours and, if combined, would stand to benefit greatly from an international carrier needing to place massive orders for both narrowbody and widebody aircraft in under a five year time window to replace the majority of its aging fleet. Can you smell a massive shot in the arm in the North American market to that manufacturer? Checkmate.

I don't necessarily agree with this one. I think Boeing will have alot to say here as they are one of the biggest creditors and they have to be looking at future orders from Delta once they come out of bankruptcy.

Quoting Tango-Bravo (Reply 16):
...but perhaps the HP/US merger has infected him with an acute case of egomania?

Agree 100%.


User currently offlinePSA727 From United States of America, joined Feb 2006, 974 posts, RR: 0
Reply 19, posted (7 years 5 months 4 days 5 hours ago) and read 7105 times:

Quoting Wingspan (Reply 7):
No, Travis. You see, some people who post here are actually in the airline business, and have the accompanying experience and industry insight that goes along with it.

Airline experts who have collectively lost how many billions in the last
5 years and have taken how many of their companies into bankruptcy
court?

I seriously doubt that this is a way to eliminate competition. If so, then
Parker should be trying to buy out Southwest.

Maybe it's a way to get NW to start making overtures to the US crowd.
That's a merger that makes more sense. NW would give US an enormous
advantage in the Asian market that US could never accomplish on its own.



fly high, pay low...Germanwings!
User currently offlineSLCUT2777 From United States of America, joined Dec 2005, 3993 posts, RR: 11
Reply 20, posted (7 years 5 months 4 days 5 hours ago) and read 7050 times:

Quoting Tango-Bravo (Reply 16):
...but perhaps the HP/US merger has infected him with an acute case of egomania?

Couldn't be better said!!! If he really wanted to have a domestic network that the FTC/DOJ could support him on he would go after NW. If he played his cards right and wanted a good set of routes to Asia he would go after NW, as well as a few profitable routes to Europe. But in all reality Wiungspan hit this one right on the head about tryiing to eliminate a direct competitor first, even though I don't quite buy the conspiricy therory about Airbus being behind the whole ponzy scheme. DL is not at the gates of liquidation as Gigneil and other DL-haters wish were the case, and I don't see the FTC/DOJ approving this thing, in fact I see them throwing this thing out if DL's creidtors most notably Boeing, GE Capitol and American Express don't tell DP to go fly a kite first! Airbus is just too broke to be secretly underwriting this thing (unless of course they have secret government money piplines from the socialist governments of France and Spain we don't know about!), and is in a serious financial mess themselves with the A380 fiasco and the A350 debacle. Further as I see it, the $8 billion in cash and stock isn't going to cut it and has grosely undervalues DL and I quite honestly think it is going to take at least another $3-4 billion in CASH to get the three above large creditors who have the ultimate say in the finances of DL to drop the ball on their future.

[Edited 2006-11-17 02:27:28]


DELTA Air Lines; The Only Way To Fly from Salt Lake City; Let the Western Heritage always be with Delta!
User currently offlineJmc1975 From Israel, joined Sep 2000, 3242 posts, RR: 15
Reply 21, posted (7 years 5 months 4 days 5 hours ago) and read 7050 times:

Quoting Charger (Reply 18):
Agree 100%. Parker could care less who stays or who go's. As long as his pockets are being lined with green stuff he don't care.

You sound like an expert on Doug Parker.  sarcastic  Do you even know him????????



.......
User currently onlineLAXdude1023 From India, joined Sep 2006, 7320 posts, RR: 24
Reply 22, posted (7 years 5 months 4 days 5 hours ago) and read 7004 times:

Quoting Jmc1975 (Reply 21):
You sound like an expert on Doug Parker. Do you even know him????????

How else would you explain his actions? Of course hes motivated by money. Of course he doesnt care who goes. This is a horrible match as its obvious to most people. He wouldnt be doing this if money wasnt his primary concern.



Stewed...Lewd...Crude...Irreverent...Belligerent
User currently offlineCharger From United States of America, joined Oct 2006, 273 posts, RR: 0
Reply 23, posted (7 years 5 months 4 days 5 hours ago) and read 6975 times:

Quoting Jmc1975 (Reply 21):
Do you even know him????????

No do you wiseguy????

Isn't it always amazing that there are one or two individuals who have to bring these conversations down to this level???

[Edited 2006-11-17 02:50:25]

User currently offlineCharger From United States of America, joined Oct 2006, 273 posts, RR: 0
Reply 24, posted (7 years 5 months 4 days 5 hours ago) and read 6964 times:

Quoting LAXdude1023 (Reply 22):
How else would you explain his actions? Of course hes motivated by money. Of course he doesnt care who goes. This is a horrible match as its obvious to most people. He wouldnt be doing this if money wasnt his primary concern.

Exactly. Thank you!!!


Any CEO, COO, President, Vice President, or upper mangement's number 1 priority is $$$$$$.


25 ABQopsHP : As for getting rid of the compition? Its a dirty game, but someone is going to do it. Maybe its a good thing I went on leave after all.
26 Petazulu : Charger, It's called capitalism my friend. Profit is the prime motivator of all economic activity. If it was not a top priority or PRIVATE enterprise,
27 ATLAaron : I'm sticking to my theory that DP made the bid thinking someone else like UA will end up making a larger bid and overpaying for DL. He feels this will
28 Ikramerica : Nobody says it doesn't matter, only that it won't make or break a merger when we are talking about sizable fleets. The smallest subfleets in each air
29 Charger : Since it is becoming clear that some on here can't read or just don't want to, I will clarify. I have no problem with any company merging as long as
30 Gigneil : Two words: HIGHLY COMPLIMENTARY FLEETS. That is all. NS
31 Cubastar : That's his projection. In situations like this the synergies seldom work out quite as well as expected. EGOs have been running this business for year
32 Planemaker : Until they are detailed no one can comment on how accurate or not they are. However, even if he is 1/3 off his projections, that is still a lot of "s
33 NASCARAirforce : There won't be a merger. Boeing will bail out Delta like Airbus bailed out U.S. Delta will be Boeing's b**** like US is Airbus's now. Delta in exchang
34 Silentbob : It's also a situation where you're only going to merge one time from here on out. If they went after NW, there wouldn't be a chance to merge with ano
35 ATLAaron : I'm not sure that Delta needs bailed out. Although I was a little surprised with their weak Q3 numbers, I don't think they need a bailout. Nor is tha
36 NASCARAirforce : Weak Q3 numbers may be due to bankruptcy costs. Northwest actually would have turned a profit too in Q3 had it not been for the bankruptcy costs.
37 Post contains images Jmc1975 : Simply Classic! Shhhhhh....... nobody's supposed to know. It's supposed to be kept on the "DL"!
38 Post contains links Diamond : Please continue all DL/US merger conversations in one of these 5 official threads: Official DL/US Merger Thread: Fleet Speculation   http://www1.air
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