Johnny From Sweden, joined Jan 2008, 0 posts, RR: 0 Posted (7 years 2 weeks 5 days 5 hours ago) and read 14412 times:
thanks to all users which read the first part of this thread and/or posted some answers.
The thread was closed by a moderator because i did not talk about my source.Ridicilous!!! (See last reply)
At this time i simply cannot post my source here, because the pricing behind the scenes with both A and B is still going on. But i wanted to talk about the good news and inform everybody who is interested in it!
-The decision is already made.
-It´s not A or B, but both.
-It will be announced in december 2006, not in early 2007.
-shorthaul-order is postponed
-status of regional-order still open
@ A.net-Moderator : Thanks for closing my previous thread ! I hope you do the same for all threads now which are REALLY based on rumours only!
Justloveplanes From United States of America, joined Jul 2004, 961 posts, RR: 1 Reply 2, posted (7 years 2 weeks 5 days 4 hours ago) and read 14355 times:
Is this the longhaul order (787 or 350) or the 744 replacement (77W, 748I, 380) or both? They had announced an intention to do the 748 replacement in December a few months back, so that part makes sense.
I was not on the other thread so excuse the repetition...
Also, the A & B nature, plus Boeing's announcement they are no longer "confident" of a 748I order supports an A380 take up with 77W's. I'll not be surprised to see more of that.
NYC777 From United States of America, joined Jun 2004, 5562 posts, RR: 49 Reply 4, posted (7 years 2 weeks 5 days 1 hour ago) and read 13876 times:
Johnny you started a good thread and I would think that threads like that are fun if were speculating what LHs fleet might comprise of. Sometimes I don't understand the mods rational for closing threads or deleting certain items. But thanks for starting part 2!!!
Burkhard From Germany, joined Nov 2006, 4302 posts, RR: 2 Reply 6, posted (7 years 2 weeks 5 days 1 hour ago) and read 13657 times:
One thing that hasn't been said yet:
Given the geographical position of Frankfurt or Munich, many "long range" destinations (KORD,KJFK,KEWR,KIAD,KDTW,KBOS) are in the reach of a standard A330-300 with full load. In October ( http://www.airbus.com/en/presscentre..._10_13_lufthansa_a320_a330300.html for the purists who want the cites ) there was an order of 30 A32x and 5 more "long range A333" - with 5500nm KDFW, KDEN, KMIA and even SBGL and SKBO are in reach.
KLAX,KSEA,KSFO and KSAN, PANC and PHNL are the only US destinations that require longer range, SABE, and all Far Eastern destinations in ASIA east of Bangkok too.
Given economics, the A333 is the most effective aircraft of it's size currently. If you cannot fill it, don't plan for a 773. If you can fill it, you can really make money with it.
So another order of a dozen A333 would be enough to shift the A343 and 346 to the longer destinations, remove some of the oldest 744, sit back and wait for A380 and 787 747NG to really fly, maybe take a few A346 that haven't the range required at other continents for a good prize, look how A350 grows, any decision now beyond that makes not much sense.
Lufthansa was successfull as either launch costumor or holding back and waiting, they waited long with the A330 and now seem to like it.
RedFlyer From United States of America, joined Feb 2005, 4214 posts, RR: 30 Reply 7, posted (7 years 2 weeks 5 days ago) and read 13539 times:
Quoting Johnny (Thread starter): -The decision is already made.
-It´s not A or B, but both.
-It will be announced in december 2006, not in early 2007.
-shorthaul-order is postponed
-status of regional-order still open
I think it's safe to assume there will be some 748i's ordered up. No doubt they will top-off their A380's. What I want to know is if the 777 is in this order. Or, alternatively, will they order more 346's?
BTW, Johnny, I liked your first thread and I was just as stunned to see it locked out. The threads on this forum are 99% speculative and that is why we all come here...to speculate. If a source isn't provided then so what? We can simply not believe what is said in the post.
Wingman From Spain, joined May 1999, 2012 posts, RR: 5 Reply 8, posted (7 years 2 weeks 5 days ago) and read 13476 times:
What will be postitively shocking is any passenger order for Boeings. That, in and of itslef, will be shocking. What would be absolutely mind boggling is any order for passenger jets from Boeing that have anything near a direct competitor from Airbus. This means the 78-9, the 78-10 and the 773ER. I just can't see that happening with Villepin and Chirac practicaly slapping Merkel senseless at the prospect. If they order 78-8's or 748i's then I'll just be shocked, any of the three above and I'll be boggled. But leasing is cheating, they have to buy.
SNATH From United States of America, joined Mar 2004, 3238 posts, RR: 24 Reply 9, posted (7 years 2 weeks 5 days ago) and read 13415 times:
Quoting RedFlyer (Reply 7): BTW, Johnny, I liked your first thread and I was just as stunned to see it locked out.
Me too. To be fair, what Patrick complained about was that the title was misleading and it should have made it explicit that it was speculation. Having said that, locking the thread was very heavy-handed in my opinion and a small title change would have kept everyone happy.
Quoting Johnny (Thread starter): @ A.net-Moderator : Thanks for closing my previous thread ! I hope you do the same for all threads now which are REALLY based on rumours only!
Johnny, I also enjoyed the thread and all the speculation!
Nikon: we don't want more pixels, we want better pixels.
Stitch From United States of America, joined Jul 2005, 28452 posts, RR: 84 Reply 10, posted (7 years 2 weeks 5 days ago) and read 13417 times:
The problem is, Wingman, is if LH feels they need next-generation planes sooner rather then later to compete, then waiting for Airbus could hurt their competitiveness.
So unless the German government is willing to write checks made out to "Cash" to LH to keep their revenues flowing and their stock price up, if the 747, 777, or 787 makes sense, they're going to buy it.
For, as noted, LH is not replacing their entire widebody fleet with this order. They still have a bunch of current generation Airbus widebodies on order that they will be taking delivery of, as well as plenty of current-generation Airbus widebodies that won't need replacing until the latter half of the 2010s.
So an up-front order of 787-9s to replace the A343s (their least-efficient widebody) and either 773ERs or 748s to replace some of the 744s with an add-on of A388s to replace some others, makes the most sense to me at the moment.
Then, later on, LH can add the A3510 to replace their A346s and the A359 to replace their A333s if that is what they feel is appropriate to do.
Stitch From United States of America, joined Jul 2005, 28452 posts, RR: 84 Reply 12, posted (7 years 2 weeks 5 days ago) and read 13328 times:
Quoting NYC777 (Reply 11): Is it possible that LH could use the 787-10 and if so could they been the launch customer for the -10 (finally Boeing would actually go ahead and formally start its development)?
Internal sources have been heresayed on this board as saying the 787 won the RFP over the A350XWB in LH's most recent comparison. I have to believe the 787-10 was part of that RFP, so Boeing may have finally met at least LH's demands, if not EK's.
And, frankly, with EK's current fleet expansion, they can probably afford to wait a year or two to see how many more percent Boeing can extract from the 787-10. LH might not want to wait at the moment, with the knowledge they can always get it later - either with new-builds or retrofits if the performance improvements are retrofittable like the 773ER's were.
N328KF From United States of America, joined May 2004, 6316 posts, RR: 3 Reply 14, posted (7 years 2 weeks 4 days 23 hours ago) and read 13115 times:
Quoting Wingman (Reply 8): I just can't see that happening with Villepin and Chirac practicaly slapping Merkel senseless at the prospect. If they order 78-8's or 748i's then I'll just be shocked, any of the three above and I'll be boggled.
I dunno, Merkel has been significantly more pro-US than her predecessors. I'm not saying she'd push Lufthansa to buy anything from Boeing; just that she wouldn't see it as a matter to interfere with.
When they call the roll in the Senate, the Senators do not know whether to answer 'Present' or 'Not guilty.' T.Roosevelt
NYC777 From United States of America, joined Jun 2004, 5562 posts, RR: 49 Reply 15, posted (7 years 2 weeks 4 days 23 hours ago) and read 13038 times:
Quoting N328KF (Reply 14): I dunno, Merkel has been significantly more pro-US than her predecessors. I'm not saying she'd push Lufthansa to buy anything from Boeing; just that she wouldn't see it as a matter to interfere with.
Well isn't LH totally free from German govt influence or control? I thought they were a regular corporate enitity just like AA or UA is here in the States?
Burkhard From Germany, joined Nov 2006, 4302 posts, RR: 2 Reply 17, posted (7 years 2 weeks 4 days 23 hours ago) and read 12947 times:
Definitively, the influence of politicians on Lufthansa is not the dominant factor, and Mr. Chirac is more afraid of Merkel than on his own wife, rumors say ge calls her Maggy while dreaming. OK, if LH would cancel all A380 it would, but behind that it is also understood that LH shouldn't become an A only company.
I just do not see what a 787 could be good for. OK, to fly to Australia, but
a) LH does not fly into Australia, and
b) People like the current schedules to leave Europe in the late evening and arrive at Sydney in early morning - a non stop schedule cannot find any attractive schedule as long as Sydney is closed for 10 hours and Europe the other 6.
I expect Condor to opt for the 787 to replace the 763.
Another point pro B is the fact that Lufthansa Technik is maintaining all A and all B planes. So it may well be that some inhouse diversity helps to be competitive on all maintenance markets.
777s - I would be surprised. They are so much louder inside and the 2-5-2 seats are so unpopular that LH couldn't get the price per seat it gets with the A340s. 748 are more likely.
So my speculation for the long range order: A333,B748,A380 - and let others try the plastic aircrafts.
NYC777 From United States of America, joined Jun 2004, 5562 posts, RR: 49 Reply 18, posted (7 years 2 weeks 4 days 23 hours ago) and read 12946 times:
Quoting Stitch (Reply 16): So say the German members of this board, and I have no reason to doubt their claims.
Then Merkel or anyoone else n the German Govt. shouldn't, couldn't and be prevented from even offering a hint of what LH's future fleet should be. That should be up to the fleet planners at LH. It's the airlines that sinks or swims with the fleet they have.
Burkhard From Germany, joined Nov 2006, 4302 posts, RR: 2 Reply 19, posted (7 years 2 weeks 4 days 22 hours ago) and read 12878 times:
Yes, and LH has done well so in difficult times, when their profit per year was higher than the share value of many competitors. They got rid of the A342 without any long discussion, well sold or long term leased away, because they had no need for them, they do not take the A345 too, because they do not need them. They know what they do. If they find out, like in the A320/B738 question, that there is no difference, they will buy Airbus, but if there is an advantage of more than a percent, they will go Boeing.
Stitch From United States of America, joined Jul 2005, 28452 posts, RR: 84 Reply 20, posted (7 years 2 weeks 4 days 22 hours ago) and read 12869 times:
Of course, we probably shouldn't be talking so much about Monsieur Chirac, whose term as President of France is coming to an end.
Ségolène Royal has been chosen by the Socialists as their nominee for the Presidency and is considered one of the leading candidates for the Office.
Mademoiselle Royal has noted that protection of French jobs is important to her, so perhaps she will be as aggressive - or even more so - that Monsieur Chirac in protecting French jobs. Mademoiselle Royal is protégé of French presidential icon François Mitterrand, but I admit I don't remember his domestic economic policies as well as I should.
Alitalia744 From United States of America, joined Mar 2000, 4709 posts, RR: 46 Reply 21, posted (7 years 2 weeks 4 days 22 hours ago) and read 12858 times:
Quoting Burkhard (Reply 17): 777s - I would be surprised. They are so much louder inside and the 2-5-2 seats are so unpopular that LH couldn't get the price per seat it gets with the A340s. 748 are more likely.
2-5-2 is an airline choice. and while some of us may not like it, there are plenty of profitable carriers flying around with 2-5-2 or 3-3-3 config'd 777s.
Burkhard From Germany, joined Nov 2006, 4302 posts, RR: 2 Reply 22, posted (7 years 2 weeks 4 days 22 hours ago) and read 12829 times:
Quoting Alitalia744 (Reply 21): 2-5-2 is an airline choice. and while some of us may not like it, there are plenty of profitable carriers flying around with 2-5-2 or 3-3-3 config'd 777s.
True. But LH passengers would have to be convinced that an A340 to 777 exchange is not a downgrade in quality after so many years of telling them the opposite. Investments into additional comfort, anti noise systems etc would be necessary.
She won the Socialist nomination, but the run-off for the French Presidency is not until April 22, 2007 and the top two candidates will then face each other on May 6, 2007. The winner of that election will be President of the Republic.
25 ER757: On the other thread, many speculated that the order will be for A380's and 787's. I'd have to say that sounds logical and even likely. But wouldn't it
26 Danny: Seems logical as LH announcement is apparently going to be made around A350 launch date.
27 Stitch: Agreed. It would be, but I don't believe the A350XWB is defined enough for LH to take the leap and hold out for it exclusively. LH is large enough to
28 PlaneHunter: It would be shocking only for those who have always believed in that odd "LH&Airbus-a.net-conspiracy"-theory... LH has been a profitable job machine
29 Burkhard: I just looked it up. LH has 20 B744 from 1992 and before, the others are newer. A343 will be silently replaced by A333LR. Only B787 and A380 cannot be
30 Elvis777: Hi Johnny, I agree, our beloved moderators need to ensure that the power they yield is used with some discretion! It is clear from your first post tha
31 Justloveplanes: SQ is rolling out a mega luxury first and business class on a 777, and EK an CX also fly the plane. These airlines market themselves as the premium b
32 A300605R: I think the 748 is an option, too. Let's wait and see...
33 USAF336TFS: Well said. I share your feelings about the 777 pax, however, I'm thinking that Cargo is more likely to get the T7, especially after the FedEx announc
34 Elvis777: Howdy PH, Fair enough. But if LH goes all eads, or mostly eads with a token boeing then would it raise the conspiracy theory to the realm of reality?
35 USAF336TFS: It won't. Mayrhuber has made that quite clear.
36 SNATH: Pardon my ignorance, but what's a A333LR? Is it an A333 with extra tanks (and is LR is true designation)? That's the first time I hear about this. Re
37 Stitch: Yes, but if LH fares as well or better then airlines who chose the 787, the financial aspect we all argue should hopefully end up holding sway. I'd b
38 LTU932: My guess is it's the A330-300X (X for High Gross Weight). In the case of LH, those are A330-343X as they operate the Trent 700 on their A333s.
39 A342: Two things I have to mention: First, please use IATA codes for airports. Many a.netters aren't used to ICAO codes, and with the exception of airports
40 Elvis777: Hi Stitch, The outcome does not really matter in order for it to be a political decision. In other words if LH orders eads and does well or poorly (an
41 PlaneHunter: Which is purely baseless and speculative. See above. PH
42 Elvis777: Hi PH, Well I'll agree that it is somewhat speculative, but not baseless. I am not sure we will ever know the truth, but perhaps when the next order o
43 Burkhard: A330,340 and 350 are mainly Toulouse made, so the pressure from Germany is small. And AF is the main competitor of LH, if they canpurchase 777s LH can
44 AA777223: [quote=LTU932,reply=38]My guess is it's the A330-300X (X for High Gross Weight). In the case of LH, those are A330-343X as they operate the Trent 700
45 LTU932: Nothing, I'm just stating LH's specific model type for the A333s they have in service. Plus, although I don't have precise numbers, the Trent 700 has
46 AA777223: Gotcha! I wasn't trying to sound like an @$$, I just wanted to make sure I wasn't missing the improtance of something in the post. Thanks for the inf
47 Trex8: those numbers aren't real world a NW A330-323X 233K MTOW with full passsenger payload (298) can fly 4600nm, a CI A330-302 230K MTOW with full passeng
48 Gigneil: It definitely can't... it would have to be empty. And also barely get off the runway.. thanks PW. But you're quite right, 5000nm+ sectors are the dom
49 LTU932: 5500 nm is AFAIK the max fuel range, with some payload. 4600 nm sounds more like max payload range. Didn't one of QF's A330s do a delivery flight from
50 AutoThrust: Couldnt agree more. I guess they will buy some 748 or/ and A380 for VLA . For A300 replacement the 787 would be the best choice. And maybe for future
51 ZKNBX: And who prey tell, is flying 2-5-2 and profitable in a consistent sense? 3-3-3 is the standard set by most major operators with only a couple of exce
52 ComeAndGo: i'll bet they buy the 748, more A380, more 333 and possibly the 777F.
53 Jacobin777: PK flies 3+3+3 on their 777's.... Cheers...
54 PlaneHunter: As long as there's no piece of evidence that argument is purely baseless. I'm still waiting to see any report somehow supporting the claim that LH or
55 Burkhard: Just looked up on AirNav Systems. Lufthansa actually is flying JFK,DTW and ORD with 333X. Just looking onto the map quite some LH long range destinati
56 Danny: My prediction would be B773 + additional A380 for now and LH annoucing becoming launch customer on A350XWB.
57 Columba: Except for the fact that LH management has said that they want to order a replacement next year so I take their word that they will......
58 A342: It definitely can - without headwind at least. In the real world, a bit of tailwind might be needed, though. A330-300 range with 233 tonne MTOW, acco
59 ZKNBX: Why? A350xwb is to an extent a replacement for B77W and A346 (and A345 and B772er). No point in doublin up like that if they will buy the A350 unless
60 Danny: A350-1000 which would be a replacement for 773 is still many years away. LH can take 800 and 900 first and then replace 773 with XWB-1000 in 12 years
61 Trex8: and almost certainly without reserves, yes you can probably fly a A333 5000nm+ with some payload but no airline is likely to do it on a regular sched
62 Burkhard: Sorry, I never saw any LH note saying they search to replace the A340-300X - I always see the A340-300 - these seven original old planes.
63 Stitch: I've noted this in the other LH threads, but now that Airbus has announced the various models of the "A350XWB Mk. II" won't EIS until 2013-2015, I thi
64 Columba: I guess it is safe to say that when LH managers speak of a replacement of their A343 fleet they mean the whole fleet. You are right in so far that th
65 RIX: - I doubt LH passengers were ever told that 340s they were flying on were bought instead of 777s for this and that reason. I also doubt at least 10%
66 AA1818: In another thread they say that LH is giving Airbus more time to present A350 specs. I guess the Mods had god reason to request a source for your inf
67 Dank: Do we know that Airbus is not able to offer earlier additional 388s due to the Fed Ex cancellation? More importantly, it may not matter to LH due to
68 RayChuang: I think LH is still awaiting the final fuel-burn results from A380-800 testing. If the A388--even if it's a couple of tonnes overweight--can still mee
69 Stitch: According to statements made on this forum, FX's A388Fs were pushed back to 2012 to 2013... Also, this assumes that Airbus is able to go to full prod
70 Dank: OK. Still not sure it matters since a bunch of their 744s will only be ~10 years old at that point. If I were going to hazard a guess, I'd say they w
71 Astuteman: That very much depends on how LH's options are structured, I suspect. It's just possible that earlier slots are being held to cover off the options t
72 Stitch: True. SQ evidently held some trump cards in her slot assignments. But it is critical to Airbus to get at least one A388 into the hands of each of the
73 Johnny: I got some more information for you guys: It looks like Boeing is getting the launching customer for the B748I... Internal sources talk about a 20 air
74 Trex8: any clues as to which part of the globe they are from?? the 747 will always be the Queen of the sky!
75 Stitch: Well 20 is what I have been speculating is the minimum. If it's LH, that will definitely kill any chances of a 773ER order in my books, but I expect B
76 USAF336TFS: Agreed. But it doesn't rule out a 777F order for Cargo, which I believe, is very likely.