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Has Boeing Evened The Narrow-Body Race?  
User currently offlineDhefty From United States of America, joined May 2005, 599 posts, RR: 3
Posted (7 years 11 months 5 days 17 hours ago) and read 8415 times:

http://www.eads.com/xml/content/OF00000000400004/2/21/41498212.pdf

http://active.boeing.com/commercial/...pageid=m25065&RequestTimeout=20000


Since 2003 Airbus has out-produced Boeing in the narrow-body market each year, and continues to do so through October of 2006. With the demise of the 757 and 717, one would expect the situation to worsen for Boeing.

Looking at the above referenced data, however, a somewhat different picture seems to emerge. When considering the 737 versus A320 series, Boeing has increased their production rate from 14.4 per month in 2003 to 25.1 in 2006, whereas Airbus has gone from 19.4 to 27.6 per month during the same time frame.

What I have begun to notice is the continuing surge in Boeing production. For instance, in August Boeing led 27-26, in September 29-27 and in the latest month of October by 28-27.

Airbus has recently announced production increases to 36 per month by December 2008, 25 months from now. Will Boeing do the same, or perhaps go beyond those forecasts, now that the second 737 line is in operation?

Since Boeing has recovered dramatically in the wide-body market and seems guaranteed to exceed Airbus in production of them for several years, the title of "largest manufacturer" seems to hang in the balance, with narrow-body production the key to success in bragging rights.

Any comments?

58 replies: All unread, showing first 25:
 
User currently offlineMPDPilot From United States of America, joined Jul 2006, 994 posts, RR: 0
Reply 1, posted (7 years 11 months 5 days 16 hours ago) and read 8324 times:

I maybe way off base but I put the 737 and A320 in the same place when it comes to cost. some airlines the 737 will be cheaper to operate and for some airlines the A320 will provide better cost savings. When it comes to the production I also put them in the same group. Boeing may lag for a year but the next they will make up for that. going off your tittle I would say yes boeing has evened it up and quite well I might add. I think that for all intensive purposes the 737 and A320 are about the same, with minor differences in operational efficiencies that vary with the operator.


One mile of highway gets you one mile, one mile of runway gets you anywhere.
User currently offlineTrijetsRMissed From United States of America, joined Oct 2006, 2377 posts, RR: 7
Reply 2, posted (7 years 11 months 5 days 16 hours ago) and read 8305 times:

Quoting Dhefty (Thread starter):
Since Boeing has recovered dramatically in the wide-body market and seems guaranteed to exceed Airbus in production of them for several years, the title of "largest manufacturer" seems to hang in the balance, with narrow-body production the key to success in bragging rights.

Any comments?

Well the 777 has been outselling the A330/340 aircraft and the 737 like you stated is pretty close to neck and neck with the A320. Personally, I would have liked to see Boeing continue production of the 757 and especially the 717, which was never well marketed. They probably feel every airline that would want the 757 already has a lot of them and the 753 did not exactly sell like hotcakes. Stopping the 717 line is pretty much waving the white flag to Embraer for the 100 seater jets.



There's nothing quite like a tri-jet.
User currently offlineDhefty From United States of America, joined May 2005, 599 posts, RR: 3
Reply 3, posted (7 years 11 months 5 days 15 hours ago) and read 8230 times:

Quoting TrijetsRMissed (Reply 2):
the 737 like you stated is pretty close to neck and neck with the A320.

True as far as production is concerned, but if you check the backlog, Airbus has a substantial lead of 1825 to 1442. This may mean that Airbus takes more "soft" orders, (IndiGo comes to mind) or it may mean that they have the ability to increase production with less fear.

In other words, Airbus may be more bullish on the narrow-body market than Boeing. It wasn't too long ago that Boeing got into a jam by ramping production faster than the supply chain or the factory could handle, so they may be a little gun-shy.


User currently offlineTrijetsRMissed From United States of America, joined Oct 2006, 2377 posts, RR: 7
Reply 4, posted (7 years 11 months 5 days 15 hours ago) and read 8219 times:

Quoting Dhefty (Reply 3):
True as far as production is concerned, but if you check the backlog, Airbus has a substantial lead of 1825 to 1442.

Is that A320 vs 737NG? I think there are several thousand 737's built. Comparing the A320's higher numbers to the 737NG is misleading because the first A320's were around about 10 years before the 737NG aircraft hit the market.



There's nothing quite like a tri-jet.
User currently offlineBoomBoom From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 5, posted (7 years 11 months 5 days 15 hours ago) and read 8193 times:

Boeing underwent a cost cutting program, implemented a moving assembly line and a"just in time" inventory system.

These changes allowed them to get agressive in pricing and still make a profit.


User currently offlineDhefty From United States of America, joined May 2005, 599 posts, RR: 3
Reply 6, posted (7 years 11 months 5 days 15 hours ago) and read 8175 times:

Quoting TrijetsRMissed (Reply 4):
Is that A320 vs 737NG? I think there are several thousand 737's built. Comparing the A320's higher numbers to the 737NG is misleading because the first A320's were around about 10 years before the 737NG aircraft hit the market.

Sorry if I was misleading, but when I refer to backlog it means units that have been ordered but not yet produced. Boeing uses the term "unfilled orders".

As far as comparing the installed base of 737 versus A320 series, you are quite correct. Boeing has produced 5217 737's of all types versus 2907 of the A320 series.


User currently offlineBringiton From United States of America, joined Sep 2006, 866 posts, RR: 0
Reply 7, posted (7 years 11 months 5 days 15 hours ago) and read 8144 times:

I think the Backlog is healthy for both boeing and airbus. The title of the "LARGEST PRODUCER" is something that is important but not the only thing that is important. Boeing has quite a significant gap over airbus when it comes to VALUE of the TOTAL BACKLOG (NB's+WB's) and there impressive WB sales have meant that they are earning good profit. Boeing's stock price shot above 90$ yesterday and they are winning orders like crazy heck they might even get a second consecutive 1000 order year and the momentum isnt looking to die down with some bluchip customers still waiting to place orders. No matter what the other competitor does (vis-a-vis pricing) over the next 2-5 years the NB market will pretty much be split even until one of these guys imbarks on a new aircraft .

User currently offlineTrijetsRMissed From United States of America, joined Oct 2006, 2377 posts, RR: 7
Reply 8, posted (7 years 11 months 5 days 15 hours ago) and read 8134 times:

Quoting Bringiton (Reply 7):
No matter what the other competitor does (vis-a-vis pricing) over the next 2-5 years the NB market will pretty much be split even until one of these guys imbarks on a new aircraft .

I predict the 787 will be more successful than the proposed A350. The A380 is a given, already looking like a failure. This should put Boeing back ahead.



There's nothing quite like a tri-jet.
User currently offlineBringiton From United States of America, joined Sep 2006, 866 posts, RR: 0
Reply 9, posted (7 years 11 months 5 days 15 hours ago) and read 8133 times:

Quoting TrijetsRMissed (Reply 8):
This should put Boeing back ahead

It should take another 1-2 years to happen (interms of deliveries) . Until the A350 goes active in 2013-2014 the 787/777 combo will deliver much more then the 330/340 combo and that will be the biggest contributer.


User currently offlineFuturecaptain From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 10, posted (7 years 11 months 5 days 14 hours ago) and read 8107 times:

Quoting Dhefty (Thread starter):
the title of "largest manufacturer" seems to hang in the balance,

No hanging. Boeing and Airbus dont hold a candle to Cessna. In the largest manufacturer race both A and B lose, C wins.  Smile


User currently offlineDhefty From United States of America, joined May 2005, 599 posts, RR: 3
Reply 11, posted (7 years 11 months 5 days 14 hours ago) and read 8020 times:

Quoting Bringiton (Reply 9):
It should take another 1-2 years to happen (interms of deliveries) . Until the A350 goes active in 2013-2014 the 787/777 combo will deliver much more then the 330/340 combo and that will be the biggest contributer.

Yes, it probably will happen in 2008, however is there a chance that Boeing could reclaim the lead in deliveries in 2007?

If Boeing matches or exceeds Airbus in narrow-bodies, as seems to be happening in the last 3 months, then it all comes down to wide-body production.

Next year will be a low year for Airbus in wide-bodies, with A300 production ending in June, A340 at a low rate, A380 starting at only 1, and A330 staying at around 60.

I believe Boeing could possibly regain the lead in 2007.


User currently offlineSSTsomeday From Canada, joined Oct 2006, 1276 posts, RR: 1
Reply 12, posted (7 years 11 months 5 days 13 hours ago) and read 8018 times:

Quoting Dhefty (Thread starter):
Since Boeing has recovered dramatically in the wide-body market and seems guaranteed to exceed Airbus in production of them for several years, the title of "largest manufacturer" seems to hang in the balance, with narrow-body production the key to success in bragging rights.

There's no question the 320 continues to do extremely well, as does the 737. But, "number" of total frames in the backlog of either manufacturer not withstanding...

Quoting Bringiton (Reply 7):
Boeing has quite a significant gap over airbus when it comes to VALUE of the TOTAL BACKLOG (NB's+WB's)

 checkmark 

If I recall directly, Boeing's 2005 sales were 10% greater in value than Airbus', even though Airbus sold a larger number of A/C (although, based on when and how they Airbus count sales - that figure may also be debatable.) Boeing's lead may remain unchallenged until Airbus gets it's 380 production into high gear and the 350 is coming out the door.



I come in peace
User currently offlineAirFRNT From United States of America, joined Jul 2004, 2826 posts, RR: 42
Reply 13, posted (7 years 11 months 5 days 13 hours ago) and read 8001 times:

Quoting Dhefty (Reply 3):

True as far as production is concerned, but if you check the backlog, Airbus has a substantial lead of 1825 to 1442. This may mean that Airbus takes more "soft" orders, (IndiGo comes to mind) or it may mean that they have the ability to increase production with less fear.

IIRC, I looked at the production numbers a few weeks ago, and I thought it was considerably tighter then that (remember that Airbus has a nasty habit of leaving canceled or dubious orders on their public lists for a bit).

I believe it was Meryll Lynch who did a actual delivery date analysis. Right now the A320 has 2-3 months more production then the B737. That's it. That's as close as you get in this business. The A330 has declining production till 2013, the A340 orders will be gone as of 2011. (And the downward trend on the graph there is not pretty at all).


User currently offlineDhefty From United States of America, joined May 2005, 599 posts, RR: 3
Reply 14, posted (7 years 11 months 5 days 13 hours ago) and read 7962 times:

Quoting AirFRNT (Reply 13):
IIRC, I looked at the production numbers a few weeks ago, and I thought it was considerably tighter then that (remember that Airbus has a nasty habit of leaving canceled or dubious orders on their public lists for a bit).

I believe it was Meryll Lynch who did a actual delivery date analysis. Right now the A320 has 2-3 months more production then the B737. That's it. That's as close as you get in this business. The A330 has declining production till 2013, the A340 orders will be gone as of 2011. (And the downward trend on the graph there is not pretty at all).

That was before the monster month of October, when Airbus added 277 A320 series orders. That alone represents 10 months of production at current rates, helped along by another 150 frame order from China and 65 from startup SkyBus of Columbus, Ohio. Other than that you are correct.


User currently offlineLegoguy From United Kingdom, joined Jun 2006, 3313 posts, RR: 40
Reply 15, posted (7 years 11 months 5 days 12 hours ago) and read 7843 times:

Aeroflot are possibly planning to order 45 aircraft from the a320 series. There is a thread about it just started.


Can you say 'Beer Can' without sounding like a Jamaican saying 'Bacon'?
User currently offlinePlanemaker From Tuvalu, joined Aug 2003, 6240 posts, RR: 34
Reply 16, posted (7 years 11 months 5 days 10 hours ago) and read 7764 times:

Quoting Futurecaptain (Reply 10):
No hanging. Boeing and Airbus dont hold a candle to Cessna. In the largest manufacturer race both A and B lose, C wins.

You might want to reconsider your statement!  Smile



Nationalism is an infantile disease. It is the measles of mankind. - A. Einstein
User currently offlineJohnny From Sweden, joined Jan 2008, 0 posts, RR: 0
Reply 17, posted (7 years 11 months 5 days 9 hours ago) and read 7695 times:

TrijetsRmissed
"Well the 777 has been outselling the A330/340 aircraft..."

THIS is only a Airliners.net-rumour.

Check the figures...


Johnny


User currently offlineF4N From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 18, posted (7 years 11 months 5 days 8 hours ago) and read 7581 times:

To all:

I'm not sure that Boeing has the same impetus to seek the "top dog" title which the 2 frame-makers have coveted over the years. Boeing's management is now run by an "outsider"(McNerney), who does not seem inclined to do anything which
does not make sense with regard to the business. I do not see Boeing rushing to
increase production for the sole purpose of shipping more a/c. At the moment, Airbus has an entirely different set of motivations to increase production which are not necessarily restricted to delivering more than Boeing.

F4N


User currently offlineFuturecaptain From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 19, posted (7 years 11 months 5 days 5 hours ago) and read 7373 times:

Quoting Planemaker (Reply 16):

You might want to reconsider your statement!

Should I? Here are the numbers I have found for 2005 deiveries of aircraft.

Aircraft delivered in 2005
Cessna 1157
Cirrus 600
Airbus 378
Raytheon 354
Diamond 329
Boeing 300
Piper 233
Bombardier, Embrader, everyone else even less.


User currently offlineAirFrnt From United States of America, joined Jul 2004, 2826 posts, RR: 42
Reply 20, posted (7 years 11 months 5 days 5 hours ago) and read 7363 times:

Quoting Johnny (Reply 17):
"Well the 777 has been outselling the A330/340 aircraft..."

THIS is only a Airliners.net-rumour.

Check the figures...

I am assuming this is a bit tongue in cheek.

But in case it has not from Fitch's recent analysis:

Quote:

Out of a total backlog of 265, the 777 has 246 in
backlog that are expected to be delivered by the end
of 2012 (planned A350XWB first delivery), while
Airbus has only 58 A340s in backlog as of Oct. 12,
2006. Subsequently Emirates cancelled a $2.3 billion
(catalog value) firm order for 10 A340-600s due to
disappointment with another A340 version. (source:
Wall Street Journal Europe). In the two years
preceding Oct. 12, 2006, the A340 generated only 39
orders versus 210 for the 777.

As far as the 330 goes:

Quote:

Without the original A350 to replace it, the A330 will
probably continue to struggle on, with orders
declining to 21 so far this year (62 in 2005) versus
134 thus far in 2006 for the 787 (232 in 2005). Future
orders probably will be limited to existing customers
(such as the recent Lufthansa order), and carriers that
need an aircraft of this size, but are not willing to
wait for the 787. This last point could be significantly
undercut by the possibility of Boeing adding a second
production line for the 787, which has often been
mentioned as under consideration.



Quoting Dhefty (Reply 14):
That was before the monster month of October, when Airbus added 277 A320 series orders. That alone represents 10 months of production at current rates, helped along by another 150 frame order from China and 65 from startup SkyBus of Columbus, Ohio. Other than that you are correct.

The bulk of these orders being a quid pro quo for a China line, and a large portion for a new LCC applicant (why do people think that the airline business is a good business to get involved with?) My suspicion is that neither will have a large effect on the backlog at the European lines. I could be wrong about the skybus order however.


User currently offlineFuturecaptain From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 21, posted (7 years 11 months 5 days 5 hours ago) and read 7338 times:

Quoting Johnny (Reply 17):
"Well the 777 has been outselling the A330/340 aircraft..."

According to justplanes.com for aircraft orders in 2006

Airbus
A330 - 42
A340 - 5

Boeing
777 - 77

So, the 777 has sold 30 more a/c than the A330/340 family has this year according to one web site.


User currently offlineJohnny From Sweden, joined Jan 2008, 0 posts, RR: 0
Reply 22, posted (7 years 11 months 5 days 5 hours ago) and read 7302 times:

@ Futurecaptain

he was not referring to 2006.It was a general statement from him.


 Smile


User currently offlineGr8Circle From Canada, joined Dec 2005, 3116 posts, RR: 4
Reply 23, posted (7 years 11 months 5 days 4 hours ago) and read 7243 times:

Quoting TrijetsRMissed (Reply 8):
The A380 is a given, already looking like a failure.

I wonder how you got away with this one.....the Euro crowd probably missed it.... Big grin


User currently offlineStitch From United States of America, joined Jul 2005, 31110 posts, RR: 85
Reply 24, posted (7 years 11 months 5 days 4 hours ago) and read 7221 times:
Support Airliners.net - become a First Class Member!

The A320 is certainly the brightest member in Airbus' current portfolio of aircraft and the recent planned increases in production (as well as moving the Chinese deliveries to their own dedicated line) should both bring in more cash for Airbus as well as give them the ability to win some sales thanks to earlier then planned future delivery slots.

25 DAYflyer : Ok, so what do those numbers look like when you back out those first 10 years of A-320 production ?
26 SSTsomeday : I'm not sure how this list is relevant beyond trivia, since the value of the respective A/C these manufacturers build varies so greatly. This list ce
27 Post contains images Jdevora : I think Dhefty was talking about aircrafts ordered and not yet build. As far as I know the 737NG was presented in 93, assuming that all the orders af
28 FlyLKU : Depending on your time horizon one could make the case for Airbus narrowing this race in recent years considering that Boeing has delivered more 737's
29 Morvious : Maybe the members of a.net have grown up and just read over these sort of lines (As it should). To the Topic. I beleve Airbus is behind in the narrow
30 Post contains images Stitch : That I do not know, but the US could always haul Airbus before the WTO on an "anti-dumping" charge. Seriously, the low production cost of the Chinese
31 Wingman : Nice chart JDevora, thanks for compiling and sharing. So over 12 years it looks like a 47%/53% split in favor of the 320 series. That's fairly evenly
32 Post contains images Flysherwood : Because the truth hurts!!!
33 PolymerPlane : Well, that's the same thing as saying 737 out sells 320 by a wide margin, over 2000 aircrafts. I agree that last year was phenomenal year for A320, b
34 Post contains images Beech19 : Finally... someone else has seen the truth. Why? Its true... check the EOY deliveries. Its not trivia. Its making a point. Airbus boasts they are the
35 Dhefty : It's an interesting chart, but misleading. This thread which I started compares production rates, not order rates. I feel this is a much better way t
36 SSTsomeday : Here, here. But it's a hollow boast, since the value of the sales is what really counts. The number of A/C is just a number. The "number" of A/C prod
37 HB88 : Not this Euro. Unfortunate experience has taught me that most ardent anti-A380 critters are immune to reasoned discussion. Easier to just move along,
38 HB88 : Hmm. I'm not sure about this. Let's see the tag to the airbus website. "Airbus, an EADS Company, is a leading aircraft manufacturer with the most mod
39 N328KF : Right, so they have changed it from something that can be objectively proven or disproven (or at least counted using various different metrics) to so
40 Semobeila : No, but probably just tired of commenting such posts... Not really comparable considering that between the introduction of the 737 and the A320 lay 2
41 HB88 : Yeah, you're right. Another nail in the coffin of Airbus. Shame on them.
42 Shenzhen : I guess the lead is in the eye of the beholder. I believe Boeing stated not long ago, that they would rather have their backlog then Airbus' backlog,
43 Post contains images Beech19 : I agree... but airbus did claim that using the "number of aircraft produced." I was just playing devils advocate saying that technically using Airbus
44 HB88 : Caught? I'm not sure what you mean. Perhaps it just reflects reality?
45 Beech19 : It was a joke... hence the smiley.
46 N328KF : I never said such a thing. You did. Don't put words in my mouth. When you're (Airbus) down, it seems like an obvious move, and I was not faulting the
47 HB88 : Apologies, there should be an irony font (or I should have put a smiley in) - I was just trying to send up the 'dancing on the grave of Airbus' which
48 PolymerPlane : Same difference. You can set your own boundaries of the facts as you see it fit. For example: A330/A340 enjoys a wider market than B777. A340 is a qu
49 TrijetsRMissed : Ok lets drop the conspiracy theories and look at the facts. The figures show that in the past 5 years there have been more 777's built than A330's or
50 Jdevora : Not questioning your numbers, just to point out that the A340 and the A330 share the same production line, that means that even when they are 2 diffe
51 Post contains images TrijetsRMissed : I think you are right, they will probably be close to neck and neck for years to come, although it looks like Boeing has taken a slight advantage. Em
52 Post contains links BoomBoom : http://www.yorkdispatch.com/business/ci_4704514 36% by value is getting into "danger territory". They need to do something quick, like launch the A35
53 N328KF : Credit to Embraer for what they have achieved, but they have a long way to go before they are the level of third that McDonnell Douglas occupied...an
54 TrijetsRMissed : I wouldn't say they are at the level McDonnell Douglas was at during the 1990's, before the takeover. Not even close. I am saying they are next behin
55 Baroque : Seriously as well Stitch, the numbers of A32x to be made in China are, AFAIK, small and likely to be taken up by Chinese orders. If they are any chea
56 Stitch : I should have been clearer - I expect Airbus to use the Chinese line to undercut Boeing for narrowbody sales to China, and not in general as you are
57 Post contains links Dhefty : For this year it looks like Airbus will produce around 25 more Narrow-bodies than Boeing, with Wide-bodies being 50-50. This news just released by Ai
58 SSTsomeday : Sorry - I missed that.
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