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Airbus Sees End To A380 Cancellations  
User currently offlineUAEflyer From United Arab Emirates, joined Nov 2006, 1035 posts, RR: 0
Posted (7 years 8 months 1 week 1 day 1 hour ago) and read 11472 times:

As the CEO said he is very confident that no one will cancel any aircraft.

http://www.usatoday.com/travel/flights/2006-11-23-airbus_x.htm

31 replies: All unread, showing first 25:
 
User currently offlineFlyUSCG From United States of America, joined Jun 2006, 656 posts, RR: 0
Reply 1, posted (7 years 8 months 1 week 1 day ago) and read 11450 times:

Well seeing as Mr. Leahy doesn't speak for any of the airlines, I'd say nothing is set in stone regardless of his "confidence". I'm sure he was also very confident they wouldn't have 3 or 4 delays pushing the aircraft back a ridiculous 2 years. Now I'm not saying more people will cancel, just giving some thoughts.


Go Trojans! Fight On!
User currently offlineUAEflyer From United Arab Emirates, joined Nov 2006, 1035 posts, RR: 0
Reply 2, posted (7 years 8 months 1 week 1 day ago) and read 11435 times:

Quoting FlyUSCG (Reply 1):
Now I'm not saying more people will cancel, just giving some thoughts.

i agree with you in this point, more airlines will start thinking very carefully before ordering the A380, but what would happen if that happened with the 747-8 or the 787.

From the article i see that Virgin Atlantic still want their order.


User currently offlineCrazyHorse From Austria, joined Nov 2005, 328 posts, RR: 0
Reply 3, posted (7 years 8 months 1 week 1 day ago) and read 11426 times:

Unless there is no unexpectet delay it could be possible, that all orders will be delivered to their new operator.
But a new delay would be deathblow for the whole A380 programm, hope this will not come true.

In my opinion only Virgin Atlantic could cancel their A380 order and switch to the A350, if the A350 will be available soon and the price is hot.


User currently offlineJacobin777 From United States of America, joined Sep 2004, 14968 posts, RR: 60
Reply 4, posted (7 years 8 months 1 week 1 day ago) and read 11436 times:

Quoting UAEflyer (Thread starter):
As the CEO said he is very confident that no one will cancel any aircraft.

Pass the salt please....



"Up the Irons!"
User currently offlineSpeedbird128 From Pitcairn Islands, joined Oct 2003, 1648 posts, RR: 2
Reply 5, posted (7 years 8 months 1 week 1 day ago) and read 11400 times:

Quoting Jacobin777 (Reply 4):
Pass the salt please....

In my opinion - if an airline was going to cancel their A380 orders, they would have done so a long time ago...



A306, A313, A319, A320, A321, A332, A343, A345, A346 A388, AC90, B06, B722, B732, B733, B735, B738, B744, B762, B772, B7
User currently offlineJacobin777 From United States of America, joined Sep 2004, 14968 posts, RR: 60
Reply 6, posted (7 years 8 months 1 week 1 day ago) and read 11339 times:

Quoting Speedbird128 (Reply 5):

In my opinion - if an airline was going to cancel their A380 orders, they would have done so a long time ago...

TG and MH have both announced the fact they are seriously thinking about cancelling their order. TG said they will have an answer in Febuary. Now how does Leahy know what TG will decide 3 months from now?  confused 

I don't believe SRB will cancel his A380 though...for now at least...



"Up the Irons!"
User currently offlineBaroque From Australia, joined Apr 2006, 15380 posts, RR: 59
Reply 7, posted (7 years 8 months 1 week 1 day ago) and read 11289 times:

Quoting UAEflyer (Thread starter):
As the CEO said he is very confident that no one will cancel any aircraft.

Seems a bit odd as content for an article. He must be a mind reader to be sure of the intentions of all of those airlines. It would have been a bit more convincing to me had he been able to give a progress report on production of the A380. Orders do not matter a great deal if they cannot figure out a way to produce them.


User currently offlineKC135TopBoom From United States of America, joined Jan 2005, 12128 posts, RR: 51
Reply 8, posted (7 years 8 months 1 week 23 hours ago) and read 11177 times:

[quote=CrazyHorse,reply=3]Unless there is no unexpectet delay it could be possible, that all orders will be delivered to their new operator.
But a new delay would be deathblow for the whole A380 programm, hope this will not come true.[quote]

There are four major issues right now where any one of them could influence more A-380 cancelations.

1. Another unexpected delay in production, or engineering work.
2. The A-380's type certification is delayed.
3. The wake turbalance issue is not resolved.
4. The wing redisign to handle a load factor of 150% of the designed strenght fails to meet that standard, again.

Other less, but important issues to individual airlines could also influence a cancelation of their A-380 orders.

1. The A-380 does not meet performance guarantees (like the MD-11).
2. New delivery dates for individual airplanes no longer meet an airlines business goals.
3. Leasing companies cannot guarantee delivery months.
4. Abandonment of the hub and spoke system by individual airlines.
5. Airbus cancelation of parts of the A-380 program, such as the A-380-800F and the A-380-900.  bomb 



I think that both VS and UPS are the next airlines on the A-380 cancelation bubble. If UPS cancels, I expect to see the A-380F program canceled completely. If VS cancels, the only airline I can see moving into those delivery slots is EK. That may trigger another round of cancelations.  redflag 

"Leahy acknowledged the "absolute mess Airbus is in in 2006" but said surging demand for its single-aisle A320 family of jets had already secured the firm its second-highest number of annual orders. With December still ahead, it has 619."

Translation: The A-320 series program is carrying the entire company.  sarcastic 

"I think we're going to end up in that 40-to-60-percent band this year," he said of Airbus' likely share of the 2006 order intake."

My 3 year old Grandson could have made that prediction. But, I think Leahy really should have said Airbus will end up in the 40%-50% range (unless they are going to shift some Jan. and Feb. 2007 orders back into 2006, like they did last year. BTW, are they going to count those orders again for 2006?  banghead 

"The market right now is asking us to build the A350, but it's not really up to the market. It's not up to me. It's up to our board," he said."

Does anyone know if Leahy has brown eyes? This statement is so full of $@^*, anyone can see right through it. Airbus is in a market forces driven business. They sell products. If no one wants their products, them why would they build them? It is up to the airlines to tell Airbus what they want in the A-350, or any other airplane they plan to ever build. If not many airlines want what Airbus proposes in the A-350, and don't sign LOIs, then the EADS Board is not going to say, build it anyway, then they have to buy it. The A-350 already has a competing airplane, that airlines are running to order, the B-787. Some, even Airbus believe the A-350 will compete against 2 Boeing airplanes, the B-787 and the B-777.
 Angry


User currently offlineStarGoldLHR From Heard and McDonald Islands, joined Feb 2004, 1529 posts, RR: 1
Reply 9, posted (7 years 8 months 1 week 22 hours ago) and read 11043 times:

Richard Branson is a trendy... he will buy the A380 if he thinks his airline looks cool for flying it, but if public opinion goes the other way he'll bail.

Shallow but that is what VS is... fools gold.

I think the worst is over for the A380 program, if somoene cancels, their slots will reduce another airlines delay. Don't forget AF dropped their slots to recover for one delay and take up the places later.



So far in 2008 45 flights and Gold already. JFK, IAD, LGA, SIN, HKG, NRT, AKL, PPT, LAX still to book ! Home Airport LCY
User currently offlineSpeedbird128 From Pitcairn Islands, joined Oct 2003, 1648 posts, RR: 2
Reply 10, posted (7 years 8 months 1 week 21 hours ago) and read 10789 times:

Quoting Jacobin777 (Reply 6):
TG and MH have both announced the fact they are seriously thinking about cancelling their order. TG said they will have an answer in Febuary. Now how does Leahy know what TG will decide 3 months from now?

Yeah, and EK was reportedly so peeved too (with Tim Clark or whoever mouthing it off daily)... I believe it's nothing more than a way to try and get the more compensation for their delayed deliveries...

Maybe I'll be wrong - you never know (I have been wrong before). It's the ones that say nothing who are most likely to cancel. Who though FX would? So I stick by opinion - mouthing off in public is nothing more than squeezing the compensation tube!



A306, A313, A319, A320, A321, A332, A343, A345, A346 A388, AC90, B06, B722, B732, B733, B735, B738, B744, B762, B772, B7
User currently offlineKC135TopBoom From United States of America, joined Jan 2005, 12128 posts, RR: 51
Reply 11, posted (7 years 8 months 1 week 20 hours ago) and read 10603 times:

Quoting Speedbird128 (Reply 10):
Yeah, and EK was reportedly so peeved too (with Tim Clark or whoever mouthing it off daily)...

If EK cancels their 43 A-380s, the whole program is over. EK can actually cancel right now and order 43 B-747-800Is, and get all of them before the last A-380 can be delivered.


User currently offlineSpeedbird128 From Pitcairn Islands, joined Oct 2003, 1648 posts, RR: 2
Reply 12, posted (7 years 8 months 1 week 20 hours ago) and read 10363 times:

Quoting KC135TopBoom (Reply 11):
If

Yep. If. Like anything in this lifetime, it hinges on the 'if'....



A306, A313, A319, A320, A321, A332, A343, A345, A346 A388, AC90, B06, B722, B732, B733, B735, B738, B744, B762, B772, B7
User currently offlineAirSpare From United States of America, joined Jun 2006, 589 posts, RR: 6
Reply 13, posted (7 years 8 months 1 week 20 hours ago) and read 10277 times:

Quoting KC135TopBoom (Reply 8):
4. The wing redisign to handle a load factor of 150% of the designed strenght fails to meet that standard, again.

The interesting point here (please correct if I'm wrong), is the wing was made for a larger variant. If it failed the load test on the lighter frame...A has their work cut out for them when if they build the -9. They may need a new wing.



Get someone else for your hero worship fetish
User currently offlineBoeing767-300 From Australia, joined Sep 2001, 659 posts, RR: 0
Reply 14, posted (7 years 8 months 1 week 20 hours ago) and read 10239 times:

Careful what you say Mr Leahy as if you haven't already learnt from your mistakes comments as such can bite really hard.

The real test here is not more cancellations but more REAL orders, not the exercising of cheap options that were linked to launch pricing with a bit (a LOT!!) of compensation factor thrown in.

The real test is new... profitable orders and we have not seen a lot of them recently. The difficulty for Leahy is to a certain extent plenty of A380 were practically given away at a price airlines could not (and should not) refuse.

This is the norm for all new aircraft but the problem is not only getting sales from #166 to #420 but attaining reasonable margins as well otherwise the #420 break even point will blow out further and further.

Quoting KC135TopBoom (Reply 8):
"Leahy acknowledged the "absolute mess Airbus is in in 2006" but said surging demand for its single-aisle A320 family of jets had already secured the firm its second-highest number of annual orders. With December still ahead, it has 619."

Translation: The A-320 series program is carrying the entire company.

 checkmark 

Leahy is under pressure to find NEW customers but they are not coming. The A380 has a niche future but the future is the way of the big twin and Airbus are still floundering around trying to counter the 787 (and the 777) the 'cheapest way they can'

As far as Leahy is concerned talk is cheap but airlines are waiting for real in service operating costs. Until then the Jury is out!!!!


User currently offlineKC135TopBoom From United States of America, joined Jan 2005, 12128 posts, RR: 51
Reply 15, posted (7 years 8 months 1 week 20 hours ago) and read 10239 times:

Quoting AirSpare (Reply 13):
The interesting point here (please correct if I'm wrong), is the wing was made for a larger variant. If it failed the load test on the lighter frame...A has their work cut out for them when if they build the -9. They may need a new wing.

I'm not sure if the wing was designed with the A-380-900 in mind, or not. But, either way, it broke on the test at 147% load. Airbus has redisigned the wing, slightly, and I have not heard of a retest, which it should have. The minimum passing standard is 150% load.


User currently offlineScouseflyer From United Kingdom, joined Apr 2006, 3374 posts, RR: 9
Reply 16, posted (7 years 8 months 1 week 19 hours ago) and read 10104 times:

Quoting KC135TopBoom (Reply 15):
I'm not sure if the wing was designed with the A-380-900 in mind, or not. But, either way, it broke on the test at 147% load. Airbus has redisigned the wing, slightly, and I have not heard of a retest, which it should have. The minimum passing standard is 150% load.

The wing had a couple of new parts added and was certified as passed without a further test being necessary.


User currently offlineUAEflyer From United Arab Emirates, joined Nov 2006, 1035 posts, RR: 0
Reply 17, posted (7 years 8 months 1 week 19 hours ago) and read 9692 times:

Quoting KC135TopBoom (Reply 11):
If EK cancels their 43 A-380s, the whole program is over. EK can actually cancel right now and order 43 B-747-800Is, and get all of them before the last A-380 can be delivered.

EK will not cancel and i am very sure about it, because if they did immediately President Jacques Chirac will fly his A340 to DXB and will make the deal political and it will never be canceled, this is my view.
I have heard also that EK will pay only for the 40 aircrafts the 3 will be FREE!!! (would Airbus do that??)


User currently offlineUSAF336TFS From United States of America, joined Apr 2005, 1445 posts, RR: 52
Reply 18, posted (7 years 8 months 1 week 18 hours ago) and read 9437 times:

Quoting Speedbird128 (Reply 5):
In my opinion - if an airline was going to cancel their A380 orders, they would have done so a long time ago...

Correct me if I'm wrong, but the only cancellation to date, was just two weeks ago, by Federal Express. I'm not sure that would fall into the "long time ago" category. While I do understand Leahy's public confidence, privately, I'm not so sure they have the same certainty.



336th Tactical Fighter Squadron, 4th Fighter Wing, Seymour Johnson AFB
User currently offlineJacobin777 From United States of America, joined Sep 2004, 14968 posts, RR: 60
Reply 19, posted (7 years 8 months 1 week 18 hours ago) and read 9416 times:

Quoting KC135TopBoom (Reply 8):
1. Another unexpected delay in production, or engineering work.

That might happen..but Airbus seems confident..

Quoting KC135TopBoom (Reply 8):
2. The A-380's type certification is delayed.

It shouldn't be a too much of a problem, after all, they are basically getting the general certification next month..

Quoting KC135TopBoom (Reply 8):
3. The wake turbalance issue is not resolved.

majour issue not resolved yet..but wont' have any affect on the carriers (right now)

Quoting KC135TopBoom (Reply 8):
4. The wing redisign to handle a load factor of 150% of the designed strenght fails to meet that standard, again.

Problem was fixed..no issue there..

Quoting KC135TopBoom (Reply 8):
1. The A-380 does not meet performance guarantees (like the MD-11).

[i]A prima facie[/b] its meeting its preformance guarantees, of course, on doesn't know until its in revenue service

Quoting KC135TopBoom (Reply 8):
2. New delivery dates for individual airplanes no longer meet an airlines business goals.

 checkmark ..that's actually a majour issue, as it affected FX and might affect MH and other carriers..

Quoting KC135TopBoom (Reply 8):
3. Leasing companies cannot guarantee delivery months.

It's basically ILFC..they don't even have a customer for their plane yet.....

Quoting KC135TopBoom (Reply 8):
4. Abandonment of the hub and spoke system by individual airlines.

Won't change that quickly..the technology isn't there yet...

Quoting KC135TopBoom (Reply 8):
5. Airbus cancelation of parts of the A-380 program, such as the A-380-800F and the A-380-900. bomb

The A380 pax will go..regardless (I think even to the point if EK cancels)

Quoting Speedbird128 (Reply 10):

Yeah, and EK was reportedly so peeved too (with Tim Clark or whoever mouthing it off daily)... I believe it's nothing more than a way to try and get the more compensation for their delayed deliveries...

Maybe I'll be wrong - you never know (I have been wrong before). It's the ones that say nothing who are most likely to cancel. Who though FX would? So I stick by opinion - mouthing off in public is nothing more than squeezing the compensation tube!

Only time will tell I guess..but Airbus has admitted that the 5X and ILFC orders "are in the cancellation zone"..that's big news to me..

Quoting UAEflyer (Reply 17):
EK will not cancel and i am very sure about it, because if they did immediately President Jacques Chirac will fly his A340 to DXB and will make the deal political and it will never be canceled, this is my view.
I have heard also that EK will pay only for the 40 aircrafts the 3 will be FREE!!! (would Airbus do that??)

EK has already cancelled two freighter orders and switched heavily to the 747-8F....

Cheers.



"Up the Irons!"
User currently offlineRJ111 From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 20, posted (7 years 8 months 1 week 18 hours ago) and read 9388 times:

Quoting AirSpare (Reply 13):
The interesting point here (please correct if I'm wrong), is the wing was made for a larger variant. If it failed the load test on the lighter frame...A has their work cut out for them when if they build the -9. They may need a new wing.

It's the size and coefficient of lift of the wing which will allow it to handle heavier weights. It will need strengthening but i imagine that would've always been the case.

Quoting KC135TopBoom (Reply 11):
If EK cancels their 43 A-380s, the whole program is over. EK can actually cancel right now and order 43 B-747-800Is, and get all of them before the last A-380 can be delivered.

It would be far from good news but they're not just going to pack up shop in Toulouse and have a tantrum. There are still around 100 other orders on the books.


User currently offlineJohnny From Sweden, joined Jan 2008, 0 posts, RR: 0
Reply 21, posted (7 years 8 months 1 week 18 hours ago) and read 9187 times:

Cancelations are very,very expensive for airlines.

Each airline has invested a lot money in planning, training etc already,which would be completely wasted.

I personally see FedEx jumping in the boat again next year.


User currently offlineScouseflyer From United Kingdom, joined Apr 2006, 3374 posts, RR: 9
Reply 22, posted (7 years 8 months 1 week 18 hours ago) and read 9065 times:

Quoting Jacobin777 (Reply 19):
EK has already cancelled two freighter orders and switched heavily to the 747-8F....

Well EK actually swapped 2 A380Fs for 2 A388s and ordered 748s in addition.

There was no overall cancellation of the A380


User currently offlineNA From Germany, joined Dec 1999, 10654 posts, RR: 9
Reply 23, posted (7 years 8 months 1 week 17 hours ago) and read 8681 times:

I hope so. Capacity, not frequency is the future of international megacity air traffic. Thats why I´m still convinced the A380 will eventually be a success, no matter if single airliner might shy a way from it for what reason ever. Operating two 777s instead of one A380 means twice as much noise (or actually more, as the A380, which I´ve seen flying twice, is the quietest airliner I´ve ever witnessed), a higher accident risk, less crews to pay for, higher fares...

User currently offlineJacobin777 From United States of America, joined Sep 2004, 14968 posts, RR: 60
Reply 24, posted (7 years 8 months 1 week 17 hours ago) and read 8473 times:

Quoting Scouseflyer (Reply 22):
Well EK actually swapped 2 A380Fs for 2 A388s and ordered 748s in addition.

True..I should have been more clear...



"Up the Irons!"
25 Gearup : The wing is designed for the 900 stretch however it is not tested with respect to any particular variant. If the wing passes it's test it is good for
26 Speedbird128 : Indeed. 2 weeks is not a long time ago. I was trying to say that with all these cancellation stories being flung about here - if airlines were so ada
27 Osiris30 : Like they were last time around? So are aircraft for which you've paid a deposit that never show up, ruining all this planning that you say is so cos
28 SparkingWave : Existing orders may remain, but will airlines order any new A380 aircraft? After these delays, will they trust Airbus with the future? That is the que
29 Jwenting : EADS has just been accused of insider trading on the stockmarket. In the past they've shown a tendency to threaten airline owners with expensive laws
30 Ncelhr : What guarantee does EK have that the B747-800Is will not be delayed? I think that none of the people in airliners.net seem to grasp the complexity of
31 Post contains links and images UAEflyer : December 13, the aircraft will be certified http://archive.gulfnews.com/articles/06/11/24/10084827.html "We are now confident on delivering the A380
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