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Airbus Predicts BA Customer For A380  
User currently offlineJAM747 From United States of America, joined Feb 2005, 550 posts, RR: 1
Posted (7 years 8 months 2 days 9 hours ago) and read 13688 times:

Not sure if this posted before buit Airbus is confident in BA being a customer for the A380 as Airbus forcast for demand for large aircraft has increased.
http://news.independent.co.uk/business/news/article2007529.ece

114 replies: All unread, showing first 25:
 
User currently offlinePADSpot From Germany, joined Jan 2005, 1676 posts, RR: 5
Reply 1, posted (7 years 8 months 2 days 8 hours ago) and read 13617 times:

Well, there isn't really much space for a future BA business strategy that can do without the A380 given the restrictions of LHR. Of course BA would never admit that as it would just weaken their position ...

The few seats that th B748I has more than the B744 do not really solve that issue ... 100-150 seats more an a A380 could help a lot though.


User currently offlineAtmx2000 From United States of America, joined Oct 2004, 4576 posts, RR: 38
Reply 2, posted (7 years 8 months 2 days 8 hours ago) and read 13532 times:

Quoting JAM747 (Thread starter):
Not sure if this posted before buit Airbus is confident in BA being a customer for the A380 as Airbus forcast for demand for large aircraft has increased.

Surely Airbus must realize that saying an airline will buy their aircraft is a bit arrogant and presumptious.

Quoting PADSpot (Reply 1):
Well, there isn't really much space for a future BA business strategy that can do without the A380 given the restrictions of LHR. Of course BA would never admit that as it would just weaken their position ...

BA has plenty of slots at LHR. And as noted, the current A380 separation rules probably decrease capacity into the airport. And with European labor being high priced, additional capacity that only ends up bringing in low revenue customers may not be so attractive.



ConcordeBoy is a twin supremacist!! He supports quadicide!!
User currently offlineOsiris30 From Barbados, joined Sep 2006, 3192 posts, RR: 26
Reply 3, posted (7 years 8 months 2 days 8 hours ago) and read 13500 times:

In other news: I predict the Swedish bikini team will be stopping by my house this weekend for a 'sexy party' (quote Stewy from Family Guy).

Vegas odds makers are giving myself and Airbus the same odds of success.



I don't care what you think of my opinion. It's my opinion, so have a nice day :)
User currently offlineJohnny From Sweden, joined Jan 2008, 0 posts, RR: 0
Reply 4, posted (7 years 8 months 2 days 8 hours ago) and read 13493 times:

BA has no other choice.

Their main competitors like EK,KE,SQ,TG and partners like QF and possibly CX will operate the bird into LHR as well.

Not to mention the order from VS...

This bird will be the flagship of the 21st century.

Johnny


User currently offlineLegoguy From United Kingdom, joined Jun 2006, 3312 posts, RR: 40
Reply 5, posted (7 years 8 months 2 days 8 hours ago) and read 13475 times:

Could Airbus know something we do not know regarding BA's position?


Can you say 'Beer Can' without sounding like a Jamaican saying 'Bacon'?
User currently offlineNA From Germany, joined Dec 1999, 10631 posts, RR: 9
Reply 6, posted (7 years 8 months 2 days 8 hours ago) and read 13420 times:

Quoting Johnny (Reply 4):
This bird will be the flagship of the 21st century.

Capacity, not frequency is the future of international megacity air traffic, BA being a schoolbook example for an airline were that is key to future success. Its almost anachronistic how much air traffic passes over London´s city still these days. I´m there quite often and its odd to see that especially the better districts of London (which are in the west and soutwest) are affected by this. Operating two 777s or the like instead of one A380 means twice as much noise (or actually more, as the A380, which I´ve seen flying twice, is the quietest airliner I´ve ever witnessed), a higher accident risk, less crews to pay for, higher fares...


User currently offlineDLPMMM From United States of America, joined Apr 2005, 3589 posts, RR: 10
Reply 7, posted (7 years 8 months 2 days 8 hours ago) and read 13358 times:

Airbus Predicts BA Customer For A380

 redflag 

The thread title is very misleading.

The only statement refering to BA is

"John Leahy, Airbus's chief commercial officer, said: "I'd like to think it is a matter of when, not if, BA will be flying the A380.""

This is anything but a prediction. It is what Leahy said he would like!

People should read the articles before commenting.


User currently offlineDAL767400ER From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 8, posted (7 years 8 months 2 days 8 hours ago) and read 13336 times:

Quoting Johnny (Reply 4):
BA has no other choice.

Their main competitors like EK,KE,SQ,TG and partners like QF and possibly CX will operate the bird into LHR as well.

Since when does competitors operating one plane mean you have to operate that plane as well?

Quoting Johnny (Reply 4):
Not to mention the order from VS...

Which VS itself chose to delay for quite a few years.

Quoting Johnny (Reply 4):
This bird will be the flagship of the 21st century.

Same has been said about the 777, yet not everybody operates them. Now does that make LH or QF weak competitors for SQ or EK? I think not.
And of course, just for reference, a few flagship carriers that have not ordered the A380: ANA, JAL, British Airways, Air Canada, American, Continental, Northwest, Delta, United, TAM, SAA.
Again, are those carriers inferior to A380 operators? Definitely not.


User currently offlineBoomBoom From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 9, posted (7 years 8 months 2 days 8 hours ago) and read 13262 times:

Quoting NA (Reply 6):
Its almost anachronistic how much air traffic passes over London´s city still these days.

How many of these are A320, 737 and smaller?


User currently offlineJohnny From Sweden, joined Jan 2008, 0 posts, RR: 0
Reply 10, posted (7 years 8 months 2 days 8 hours ago) and read 13247 times:

@DAL767-400ER

I know we usually never agree...

To answer your points:
-I believe that airlines will buy the A388 because their biggest competitor has done it! This is like the introdution of the B747 some thirty years ago.

-VS has delayed,but not canceled the bird.

-The B777 is also THE flagship of the 21st century?!? LOL!!! That is really funny!

Johnny


User currently offlineOsiris30 From Barbados, joined Sep 2006, 3192 posts, RR: 26
Reply 11, posted (7 years 8 months 2 days 7 hours ago) and read 13190 times:

Ok guys, let me post a question to you here... Maybe I can possibly get you to see why, for all intents and purposes the 380 is 'doomed'.

Here's the question (actually there's two):

1) If Airbus sells 300 380s and Boeing doesn't sell a similar number of 748s in the next 5 years, do you really think Boeing won't develop a competitor?

2) If Boeing develops a competitor using technology 10-15 years advanced over the 380, do you really think the 380 will have a leg to stand on?

(Any following questions are rhetorical in nature)

Remember Airbus needs to sell 420 of these things to break-even. Do you think Boeing will let them get that far? I mean do you really think they would allow such a thing to happen. How do you think an AL 380 will fair vs. a CFRP Boeing replacement? How do you think a 380 will fair against new gen engines? How much does re-engining the 380 push out the break-even point?

If you can honestly answer those questions and come away with anything other than a negative outlook on the 380, you are a very 'special' kind of person  Smile



I don't care what you think of my opinion. It's my opinion, so have a nice day :)
User currently offlineRJ111 From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 12, posted (7 years 8 months 2 days 7 hours ago) and read 13130 times:

Quoting Osiris30 (Reply 11):
1) If Airbus sells 300 380s and Boeing doesn't sell a similar number of 748s in the next 5 years, do you really think Boeing won't develop a competitor?

Market saturation mean anything to you?


User currently offlineJacobin777 From United States of America, joined Sep 2004, 14968 posts, RR: 60
Reply 13, posted (7 years 8 months 2 days 7 hours ago) and read 13098 times:

Quoting Johnny (Reply 10):

-The B777 is also THE flagship of the 21st century?!? LOL!!! That is really funny!

Why is that "funny"? For many carriers, the 777 is their flagship product...

Maybe those carriers mentioned below disagree with you Johnny.. Wink

Quoting DAL767400ER (Reply 8):

Same has been said about the 777, yet not everybody operates them. Now does that make LH or QF weak competitors for SQ or EK? I think not.
And of course, just for reference, a few flagship carriers that have not ordered the A380: ANA, JAL, British Airways, Air Canada, American, Continental, Northwest, Delta, United, TAM, SAA.
Again, are those carriers inferior to A380 operators? Definitely not.

 checkmark 



"Up the Irons!"
User currently offlineOsiris30 From Barbados, joined Sep 2006, 3192 posts, RR: 26
Reply 14, posted (7 years 8 months 2 days 7 hours ago) and read 13088 times:

Quoting RJ111 (Reply 12):
Market saturation mean anything to you?

RJ111: Yes it does. But you didn't answer my question. Airbus says it's a > 1000 plane market over the next 20 years. 300 in 5 years isn't close to long-term saturation. If sales start proving those numbers (so far they aren't CLOSE to proving those number) then do you expect Boeing will sit there and go "geee it's a shame we didn't offer a like-sized competitor... oh well!"



I don't care what you think of my opinion. It's my opinion, so have a nice day :)
User currently offlineJohnny From Sweden, joined Jan 2008, 0 posts, RR: 0
Reply 15, posted (7 years 8 months 2 days 7 hours ago) and read 13047 times:

@Jacobin777

I was not talking about specific airlines´flagship, but about THE flagship at all!!!

And that is the A388 without any doubt.


Johnny


User currently offlineScbriml From United Kingdom, joined Jul 2003, 12375 posts, RR: 47
Reply 16, posted (7 years 8 months 2 days 7 hours ago) and read 13036 times:
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Quoting Atmx2000 (Reply 2):
Surely Airbus must realize that saying an airline will buy their aircraft is a bit arrogant and presumptious.

Did you actually read the link? The only person speaking like that is the journalist.

Quote:
John Leahy, Airbus's chief commercial officer, said: "I'd like to think it is a matter of when, not if, BA will be flying the A380."

That's hardly arrogant is it?



Time flies like an arrow, but fruit flies like a banana!
User currently offlineOsiris30 From Barbados, joined Sep 2006, 3192 posts, RR: 26
Reply 17, posted (7 years 8 months 2 days 7 hours ago) and read 13036 times:

Quoting Johnny (Reply 15):
And that is the A388 without any doubt.

That is a HIGHLY debatable point. What makes a flag ship? Well I would say it has to be in service, so for now the 380 is out. Then the next question is (assuming we're looking down the road), is it passenger comfort, if that's the case I'll take a 787 for my comfort thanks.



I don't care what you think of my opinion. It's my opinion, so have a nice day :)
User currently offlineBriguy1974 From United States of America, joined Aug 2005, 133 posts, RR: 0
Reply 18, posted (7 years 8 months 2 days 7 hours ago) and read 13013 times:

Lets not be foolish... A380 flagship??? Lets get the plane in commercial service first, second lets see some proof that this airplane actually makes its manufacturer some money and last a flagship that does not fly with one American Airline. (UPS excluded) You have got to be kidding. Look at aviation numbers. Where are the largest airlines. Busiest airports??? Come on now. Not one American Airline will order this plane. The largest and busiest airports in the world including JFK, LAX, ATL, ORD are looking at 2- 10 A380 operations a day max... And that is 10 years off yet.... Flagship my butt.

User currently offlineJimyvr From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 19, posted (7 years 8 months 2 days 7 hours ago) and read 13015 times:

Quoting Johnny (Reply 4):
possibly CX will operate the bird into LHR as well.

Yeah, possibly. Probably they'll stay away from 747-8 together with A380, since they didn't throw any clues out

Quoting Johnny (Reply 4):
This bird will be the flagship of the 21st century

Like Concorde, the flagship of the 20st century.

Quoting Johnny (Reply 10):

-VS has delayed,but not canceled the bird.

Well, they're swinging in between the word "keep" and "cancel"

Quoting Johnny (Reply 10):
-The B777 is also THE flagship of the 21st century?!? LOL!!! That is really funny!

Just like you say "This bird will be the flagship of the 21st century". We're only in the 7th year of the 21st century and you quickly jump into conclusion right away.


User currently offlineWheelsatc From United Kingdom, joined Oct 2004, 111 posts, RR: 0
Reply 20, posted (7 years 8 months 2 days 7 hours ago) and read 13016 times:

If BA orders the A380 it is just extra economy seats that it won't be able to fill. The A380 is a disaster and will hopefully be proved so. I hope and think that BA will wait for the superior Boeing products that are bettered suited to its business model, BA is concerned with quality not quantity!

User currently offlineYOWza From Canada, joined Jul 2005, 4863 posts, RR: 15
Reply 21, posted (7 years 8 months 2 days 7 hours ago) and read 12956 times:

Quoting DAL767400ER (Reply 8):
Since when does competitors operating one plane mean you have to operate that plane as well?

Well this is not a case of an airline choosing between two similar frames because their competitors did so. The simple reason being there is no aircraft with comparable capacity. This is not like Airbus saying BA will choose the 340 because VS operate it.

It would not look half bad either:
BA A380

YOWza

[Edited 2006-11-24 17:45:49]

[Edited 2006-11-24 17:46:33]

[Edited 2006-11-24 17:47:21]


12A whenever possible.
User currently offlineStitch From United States of America, joined Jul 2005, 30537 posts, RR: 84
Reply 22, posted (7 years 8 months 2 days 7 hours ago) and read 12938 times:
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Quoting Johnny (Reply 4):
Their main competitors like EK,KE,SQ,TG and partners like QF and possibly CX will operate the bird into LHR as well.

But BA is considering pulling out of the "Kangaroo Route" because of low yields and scores of A388s added to that route every day sure isn't going to help that matter.

If anything, perhaps it will be BA who launches 772LR direct service LHR-SYD because they can make it work because it will be the only service they offer to their frequent fliers so they can tailor the demand curve to make it profitable.

Quote:
Not to mention the order from VS...

Assuming VS takes the planes, of course.

Quoting Osiris30 (Reply 11):
If Airbus sells 300 380s and Boeing doesn't sell a similar number of 748s in the next 5 years, do you really think Boeing won't develop a competitor?

Yes. Because such an additional sales total would just cover the A388's program costs and at that point, Airbus can become aggressive on pricing, shutting out Boeing.

Quote:
If Boeing develops a competitor using technology 10-15 years advanced over the 380, do you really think the 380 will have a leg to stand on?

No, because the CASM advantage would be more significant. However, Boeing has done far better spending those monies on a wider product line (747/777/787). Unless the A388 is scoring closer to 1000 frames then 500, I can't see Boeing viewing the risk being worth it.

Quote:
Remember Airbus needs to sell 420 of these things to break-even. Do you think Boeing will let them get that far? I mean do you really think they would allow such a thing to happen.

How, exactly, can they stop it?

Sure, they could do what many accuse Airbus of doing and offer the 747-8 at "half-off" ($150 million a frame instead of $300 million). That should win them a whole slew of orders, most of them at the expense of the 777-300ER. As a former Boeing shareholder, I can assure you I would not take too kindly to Boeing losing $50-100 million a frame vs. what they could sell a 773ER for and I imagine I'd not be alone in that view...



One thing to note is that while the Boeing aficionados all tout how important and compelling the 787's and 777's sales lead is in marginalizing future A350 sales, the same thing applies to the A388's lead vs. some future Boeing "wonder VLA".

Either the market for a 500+ seat VLA is very small, in which case the cost of producing one is superfluous for Boeing, or the VLA market is very big, and Airbus' two decades alone in the market will give them a significant foundation to build from while Boeing will need to break-in at the ground floor. Essentially, what 2000 was for Airbus and the A388 vs. the established 747 and 777 market will be 2020 for Boeing and their VLA vs. the established A388 and A350XWB market.

That's not to say Boeing can't do it, of course. But as we have just seen today with the cancellation of the launch meeting, Airbus has spent so much money on the A388 program that they can't afford to launch the A350XWB. Yet Boeing is so cash-flush right now thanks to strong 777 sales they can fund much of the 787 program "out of pocket" and that program will fund the 737RS.

In 2020, Boeing will have to send $15-20 billion to a "black hole" to develop their own VLA, while Airbus is reaping billions from the A388 program and seeing monies starting to flow in from the A350XWB program.

If Airbus comes up with their own "game changer", how will Boeing be able to respond? What if the narrowbody replacement program is delayed until the latter half of the 2010's and Boeing is so invested in the VLA they can't launch the 737RS when Airbus launches an A320RS that is as revolutionary in design and production as the 787 was to it's predecessors?

Will the first half of the 2020's on this board be like the first half of the 2000's, except the "topic du jour" is how Boeing is "doomed to fail" and "clueless" and all the other invectives being tossed at Airbus and the A388 now?



[Edited 2006-11-24 17:39:20]

User currently offlineRedChili From Norway, joined Jul 2005, 2212 posts, RR: 4
Reply 23, posted (7 years 8 months 2 days 7 hours ago) and read 12906 times:

Quoting Atmx2000 (Reply 2):
BA has plenty of slots at LHR.

But all those slots are already being used. BA has no free/unused slots at LHR, and they can't get any more slots either.

Quoting Legoguy (Reply 5):
Could Airbus know something we do not know regarding BA's position?

Surely. The question is whether they were speaking the full truth, or if they for some reason want to paint a rosy picture of the A380s future, e.g. in order to convince EADS to go along with the XWB. Doing that would, in my opinion, be extremely risky. I hope that the Airbus managers are wiser than that.

Quoting DLPMMM (Reply 7):
The thread title is very misleading.

The only statement refering to BA is

"John Leahy, Airbus's chief commercial officer, said: "I'd like to think it is a matter of when, not if, BA will be flying the A380.""

This is the only direct quote from Airbus, but there were other sentences also, like: "Airbus forecasts that by 2020 some 85 superjumbos a day will be landing at Heathrow airport - many of them in the livery of BA." Unfortunately, we don't know whether this sentence was based upon a direct quote from an Airbus executive or if the reporter misunderstood something that Airbus said.

Quoting DAL767400ER (Reply 8):
American, Continental, Northwest, Delta, United,

I didn't know that the US had so many flag carriers...

Quoting Osiris30 (Reply 11):
If Airbus sells 300 380s and Boeing doesn't sell a similar number of 748s in the next 5 years, do you really think Boeing won't develop a competitor?

Boeing has stated that they chose the "cheap way" of upgrading the 747 because they believe that the market isn't big enough for two brand-new VLAs. If Airbus would be able to sell more VLAs than what Boeing has forecast, then Boeing would develop their own new VLA to compete with Airbus. I don't have the numbers right now, but I believe that your figure of 300 A380s is well below the number that Boeing has forecast for the A380. So the answer to your question is: No, Boeing will not develop a brand new competitor if Airbus sells only 300 A380s during the coming five years.

Quoting Osiris30 (Reply 11):
If Boeing develops a competitor using technology 10-15 years advanced over the 380, do you really think the 380 will have a leg to stand on?

Again, Boeing will commit to develop this competitor only after Airbus has sold enough A380s to break even.

Quoting Osiris30 (Reply 11):
Remember Airbus needs to sell 420 of these things to break-even. Do you think Boeing will let them get that far?

Yes, because Boeing has stated in their market outlook that they are not interested in competing with a brand new VLA if the market is so small.



Top 10 airplanes: B737, T154, B747, IL96, T134, IL62, A320, MD80, B757, DC10
User currently offlineStitch From United States of America, joined Jul 2005, 30537 posts, RR: 84
Reply 24, posted (7 years 8 months 2 days 7 hours ago) and read 12851 times:
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Quoting RedChili (Reply 23):
But all those slots are already being used. BA has no free/unused slots at LHR, and they can't get any more slots either.

Nothing is stopping BA from buying more slots from other operators. It's just a question of money - same as it is for any operator at LHR.

Plus nothing is stopping BA from adjusting slots via frequencies. If they're flying two A319s an hour to MAN, why not fly one A321 and open a slot?

Quoting RedChili (Reply 23):
I didn't know that the US had so many flag carriers...

They all fly the American flag next to their "N"-series registrations.  Wink

Seriously, while "flag carrier" might have meant "government owned" in the 20th century, in the 21st, it's more apt to define it as "where one's corporation is chartered".


25 RJ111 : ....and there's every chance Airbus will be wrong. You said it yourself. Boeing Aren't going to launch a competitior just to ruins Airbus' fun. They'
26 Post contains images DAL767400ER : Thing is, we have the year 2006, and since the 747 was introduced, we have had a serious oil crisis in the 70's, multiple Gulf Wars, and 9/11. back i
27 Osiris30 : They would ?be at? break-even at that point. It's not likely they could afford to cut the price too heavily. But, ok, let's assume that happens. Who
28 Post contains images Osiris30 : That's 300 over 5 years, which I believe would be way above Boeing's forecasts. Boeing sees the 747_380 at 990 planes through 2025. That's 49.5 a yea
29 Stitch : But Boeing will also have eleven figures invested into the program that they need to generate a return on. As has been pointed out with the A388, it'
30 Post contains images RJ111 : What????? They'll be wrong if they don't sell 1000 in 20 years. They can sell 999 in the next 5 years and still be wrong. Yeah, you're playing devil'
31 Osiris30 : Pick you arguement and stick to it. How does that response have anything to do with the fact you're discounting 40 years of experience while creditti
32 NA : I can only compare longdistance traffic. And LHR has a very high percentage of these. Yeah, and the Navy of Turkmenistan has a row-boat as flagship.
33 Osiris30 : I'm making the assumption. No **it they could sell 1000 on the last day before the 20th year and be right.. but that's unlikely. As time goes on the
34 RedChili : Theoretically, maybe there isn't, and maybe they can get one or two slots. But a meaningful number of slots would obviously be extremely expensive. I
35 SJCRRPAX : This seems like a European point of view. I can see why Boeing and Airbus have different philosophys. I know this is a slight exageration, but in Eur
36 Osiris30 : Well yes, but I think if necessary they can be found. Boeing has PUBLICALLY STATED (for the last time) that all future aircraft (post 748/787) they a
37 Johnny : France has CDG plus ORY UK has LHR,LGW,MAN,BHX Germany has FRA and MUC Spain has BCN and MAD Italy has MXP plus FCO For example: I see no reason to fl
38 RJ111 : Exactly. That's why it is feasible to sell 300 A380s in the next 5 years and still not get 1000 after 20, vindicating my point. Yes but the market is
39 RedChili : Everybody agrees that the market exists, they only disagree about how big the market is. Boeing believes that the market is only around one thousand
40 RedChili : But Boeing has said this because they are NOT PLANNING TO BUILD A NEW VLA! Boeing said this because they want to focus on building smaller airplanes,
41 Osiris30 : I'm confused.. so you think that after Boeing EIS's the 787 they are going to have their engineers sit around and not produce a new design for 7 year
42 CrazyHorse : On the other side the great selling B787 is a point to point aircraft and many airlines will add more frequency to their routes and will be more flex
43 RedChili : This list was not chronological. Also, you should remember that the 748i will EIS in 2010, so the engineers have plenty to do until then with the 787
44 Post contains images Osiris30 : K. That's why I asked. (I was genuinely confused ) I would expect the engineering load on the 748 would be relatively light in comparison to an all n
45 Jimyvr : What are you trying to say with those examples? If UK got LHR, LGW, MAN, BHX and all flying to New York, for example, what is the point of getting A3
46 Shenzhen : Remember all the Chinese Airlines that were going to order (HAD TO) the A380 in order to have it for the 2008 Games in Beijing? Anyway, Airbus probab
47 Post contains links and images Stitch : My argument is that it will cost Boeing at least ten billion dollars (eleven figures) and probably more to build a brand new true through-two-deck co
48 Stitch : So would a score or two of A388s... It depends on how many daily frequencies BA offers and what the demand curve looks like for them all. There could
49 Post contains images Johnny : @Jimyvr "Sorry that i was not precise enough...It was a response to reply35 only... You write: "11 daily BA LHR-JFK/EWR combines to 5, that leaves lit
50 Osiris30 : I think you're over-estimating just how hard it is to do a full second deck aircraft. Boeing studied it relative eons ago. I think you are seriously
51 Jimyvr : Don't forget the demand on JFK-LHR in the example I use, is high and at least supports BA to fly 11 daily. Those 11 daily flight schedules are adjust
52 Jfk777 : BA will gladly see Emirates, Qantas and Singapore Airlines fly the A380 to LHR and thank GOD it doesn't have to deal with the beast. Many more airline
53 Post contains images Columba : I would have to agree with Johnny that the A380 will be the flagship of the 21st century although many disagree. By definition I would say a flagship
54 Post contains images Solnabo : Watch out world, hell will freeze over if BA buys 388! According to many of a.netters that will never happend...well, time will tell My bet is that BA
55 Post contains images Johnny : @ Columba Thanks! Johnny
56 Fozbird : ...exactly, say no more.
57 Post contains images Jimyvr : At least I think it's unlikely (of course it doesn't = to never happen)
58 JohnJ : I don't know if the following is indicative of BA staff attitude toward the A380, but I was a bit taken aback a couple of weeks ago while riding the i
59 Post contains images Stitch : Very true. One of the first design studies of the 747 program was a true two-through-deck configuration. And I am sure Boeing resurrected those plans
60 Post contains links EGNR : Why does purchasing the A380 mean that only economy seat counts will increase? Airlines could keep economy seat counts at around the same levels as o
61 Post contains images Osiris30 : Yay.. common ground LOL... Oh I don't disagree.. but my point is more that if the market is much larger I bet Boeing does chase it.. They would need
62 Post contains images RIX : - I wouldn't call DL or AA or CO second-tier airlines. Being able to fill 747 or 380 means nothing about airline as "a major international" one. 777
63 Post contains images Jacobin777 : once again..why? its the biggest? even if its called "the flagship"..bid deal..its not selling a lot of frames. I'm sure Boeing (and shareholders) wo
64 Post contains links LOWW : BA chief executive Willie Walsh has warned that the A380 could add to runway crisis due to the approach separation distance required for the ultra-lar
65 Keesje : I think everyone who reads the article gets the picture he wants a mixed mose system and a third runway. Politics. E.g the BAA doesn´t think the A38
66 Stitch : I don't think she'll be an unbridled fiscal success, either. I would be surprised (but not disappointed) if she has more then 300 orders by 2010 and
67 Planesarecool : I don't see why people assume that A380's would reduce the amount of flights required? On a route such as LHR-NYC, there are 11 flights throughout the
68 Hamster : What are the current separation rules that limit the 380?
69 Post contains images Glideslope : An Oil Tanker is the largest ship in the world. So your saying it's only "Size" than matters? Although I can see the similarities. I love how these 3
70 Osiris30 : Agreed. The one saving grace for Boeing is that at least they didn't go forward with the 2707. While the plane nut in me would have loved to have see
71 ContnlEliteCMH : A conclusion which will doubtless change again if Airbus produces the larger A389.
72 Post contains images WingedMigrator : There are also people who think that: a) If there is a hot VLA market, Boeing will enter it b) A new Boeing VLA will prevent A from making a profit o
73 Post contains images SSTsomeday : Well the painful lesson that American airlines have learned is that you can't just keep your market share at the expense of your bottom line. Those a
74 Post contains images Jacobin777 : Even if Airbus doubles their order book, they will be still more than 100 planes away from breaking even ...its been 6 whole years since the plane ha
75 WingedMigrator : I have no idea how many frames they will sell, but they already have one big problem on their hands. The hole has already been dug, and one would hop
76 Post contains images Jacobin777 : Understood..
77 Post contains links RIHNOSAUR : I am no expert on this, but this makes some sense to me. I say this because it just seems, that the North America Asia market and Europe to Asia mark
78 Osiris30 : Then they are far from a tidy profit. The longer sales take to show up the greater the breakeven number will be. Assuming 80% market share on your 70
79 Columba : The A330 and 777 are workhorses no flagships. The 747 was for years the flagship of the airlines that used it !
80 CoolSkyGuy : Agree... such a big and profitable Airlines like BA should not be left behind in the race... Thought VS has once said will not rule out the cancellat
81 Post contains images Rom1 : Concorde was the flagship of BA and AF for 25 years, and the aircraft was only operating 2 flights a day to JFK at the maximum, and no other airline
82 KC135TopBoom : Ahhh, the A-380 began development in the 20th century, as was the B-777. So, I guess that makes the Wright Flyer (sold 0) the flagship of the 20th ce
83 LHStarAlliance : AF/LH are buying this A/C , if they want to compete the must buy this A/C ... But I think we will see a 748 and a 380 order .
84 Johnny : @ KC135TopBoom My flagship of the 20th century is and will always be the B747! Johnny
85 Post contains images Jacobin777 : I'll take a 777 ANY day over the 747 and probably A380.....
86 Post contains images Johnny : @ Jacobin777 What a surprise if i take a look at your name... But i have to agree.
87 Post contains images Astuteman : When manufacturing products of these magnitudes, scale DOES matter (honest ) Me too. The "A380 conundrum". It's designed to be grown into much better
88 Post contains images Jacobin777 : Guess I made it a bit too obvious then.. But I'll take an A330 over a 767 any day....
89 RedChili : I don't know if I agree about that. The development of the 787 actually started in the end of the 1990s, but at that time as the Sonic Cruiser. The S
90 Post contains images Osiris30 : Bad choice of words.. should have said designing not making Yep.... Lost on me why the didn't build the 'optimal' model first... would have seemed th
91 Post contains images Atmx2000 : No, it is also higher because they designed it assuming that the dollar would remain overvalued. With the dollar in a more historically normal tradin
92 Osiris30 : You are right ofcourse. However, the fact that the program costs moved so much has less reliance on the dollar. But again, you are correct the dollar
93 Post contains images Jacobin777 : You got me on that one... Maybe that's why we're not seeing exploding sales of the 748I either... Actually, I've flown cattle class on EK's 777's wit
94 SSTsomeday : Quoting Myself: To which RedChili replied: Well, I disagree. If BA counters other airlines' 380s with 777s or 787s (for example) in London, then BA ca
95 Zvezda : It appears that the VLA market is currently near saturation. An airline cannot tailor the demand curve; it can only tailor the supply. I think you me
96 Post contains images Osiris30 : ... was in a hurry my bad. Don't think so frankly... While this is somewhat true, there are still limits. If you are diverging too heavily in either
97 Zvezda : In a CFRP design, that's true with the wing, but not with the fuselage. In a metal design, that's true with both the wing and the fuselage.
98 Osiris30 : Wing, landing gear systems/mount points and general aero-dynamics are some of the areas I'm thinking of.
99 787engineer : IMHO there is no "THE" flagship of a century, and I seriously doubt it will be the A388. I guess you could call the 747, Concorde, 707, or even the 7
100 Zvezda : Optimising the landing gear systems/mount points is not a problem. The wing is really the only sticky issue and even that can be optimized to a degre
101 Post contains images BA787 : Ah now we see the picture Read the article first you muppet So this debate is openeed once again. Either way BA will make the right choice. No matter
102 Post contains images Osiris30 : I disagree.. just look at the debate we had around what kind of gear we would but on a hypothetical 787-11
103 Post contains images Jacobin777 : ...NH and JL are two carriers flying out of two of the most slot-constrained airports in the world....NRT/LHR... More like delusional....they need tr
104 Post contains images Stitch : Call it "tailoring supply to the profitable part of the demand curve" then. Seriously, what I am trying to say is that there are people who will fly
105 Post contains images OzGlobal : Whilst this is fairly abstract subject, the clear precedent is that airlines use their largest, longest range aircraft as flagship even should they o
106 Parapente : It seems to me that this forum has answered the important questions. Yes Boeing underestimated the market. Their own forcasts have moved steadily up o
107 Stitch : I'm not sold on Boeing having underestimated the market. Remember that the 745, 746, and 74X were all serious proposals, just as the 748 is. The 645
108 Post contains links and images Zvezda : I think that proves my point nicely. Boeing can easily offer different landing gear configurations for different B787 models. They are not forced to
109 Osiris30 : Yes, and adding the modification after the fact were sub-optimal with both options. Both required some non-trivial redesign and in the case of the ce
110 Johnny : @ Stitch "The 748F's economics appear to be better then the A388F's, which is why carriers are ordering it and not the A388F" As much as i belive the
111 Post contains images Stitch : The larger MTOW versions will themselves (most likely) be physically larger so perhaps the trade-off in additional underfloor gear and fuel space wil
112 Parapente : Yes Stitch your points are well made. In the "F" mode the 747 is formidable. It always was-not surprising considering its anticedance. As for the "I"
113 Stitch : I am not sure Boeing is offering deep discounts. Right now Boeing is in that "gray area" of whether or not to commit serious money and resources to b
114 Post contains images RIX : Of the airlines - absolutely (with two obvious exceptions). But not of "the century". Plus, 380 will hardly play the same role as 747 did, being both
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