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Randy Baseler On XWB Launch  
User currently offlineBringiton From United States of America, joined Sep 2006, 866 posts, RR: 0
Posted (7 years 7 months 4 weeks 1 day 17 hours ago) and read 7340 times:

http://www.boeing.com/randy/archives/2006/12/out_to_launch.html

50 replies: All unread, showing first 25:
 
User currently offlineKFLLCFII From United States of America, joined Sep 2004, 3296 posts, RR: 30
Reply 1, posted (7 years 7 months 4 weeks 1 day 17 hours ago) and read 7344 times:

"And their biggest model, the -1000, which is to compete with the 777-300ER, won't be arriving until nine years from today. Mind you, we forecast a market of 1,450 airplane deliveries in this size category (200-400 seats) between now and 2015.

Enough said about timing."


 rotfl 



"About the only way to look at it, just a pity you are not POTUS KFLLCFII, seems as if we would all be better off."
User currently offlineZvezda From Lithuania, joined Aug 2004, 10511 posts, RR: 64
Reply 2, posted (7 years 7 months 4 weeks 1 day 17 hours ago) and read 7328 times:

Normal marketing spin; nothing really insightful this time. I'm pessimistic about the A350 because I think the composite fuselage panels are stupid and a manifestation of not-invented-here syndrome. However, I'm prepared to wait and see as the design details are firmed. Certainly, the A350 will devastate the B777, but based on the information available today I don't expect it to beat the B787.  Sad

User currently offlineMCIGuy From United States of America, joined Mar 2006, 1936 posts, RR: 0
Reply 3, posted (7 years 7 months 4 weeks 1 day 17 hours ago) and read 7302 times:

Quoting Zvezda (Reply 2):
Certainly, the A350 will devastate the B777, but based on the information available today I don't expect it to beat the B787.

"Tiiiiiiiiime, is on my side, yes it is..." Silly

I think Boeing need only move up Y3 development by a couple of years to potentially crush the A350. That is, if it turns out to be the ambitious, wide-ranging product it's expected to be.



Airliners.net Moderator Team
User currently offlineAndesSMF From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 4, posted (7 years 7 months 4 weeks 1 day 17 hours ago) and read 7273 times:

Quoting Zvezda (Reply 2):
the A350 will devastate the B777

Agreed, by the time Airbus has a competitor, the 777 will have sold plenty of units anyways.

And once the 787 and 748 are out of the way, Boeing only has two projects to deal with, the 737 and the improvements to the 777.

[Edited 2006-12-06 07:27:48]

User currently offlineKen777 From United States of America, joined Mar 2004, 8191 posts, RR: 8
Reply 5, posted (7 years 7 months 4 weeks 1 day 17 hours ago) and read 7221 times:

Quoting Zvezda (Reply 2):
Certainly, the A350 will devastate the B777

I think that will be a major challenge for Airbus to pull off, especially if Boeing continues to improve the 777. If the 787 exceeds expectations then Airbus has another problem in devastating the 777 - Boeing can tell the airlines that Y3 is close and they should hold off ordering the larger 350s. Sort of like Airbus did with SQ when SQ was seriously considering the 7E7.

At least there is never a dull moment . . .


User currently offlineNwray From United States of America, joined Aug 2005, 63 posts, RR: 0
Reply 6, posted (7 years 7 months 4 weeks 1 day 17 hours ago) and read 7206 times:
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Quoting Zvezda (Reply 2):



Quoting Zvezda (Reply 2):
Certainly, the A350 will devastate the B777

Devastate or be competitive with? Do you mean fuel efficiency wise?

Also, probably a dumb question, but will Airbus continue to produce A330s after the A350 introduction? Any reason for this?

Thanks.


User currently offlineBringiton From United States of America, joined Sep 2006, 866 posts, RR: 0
Reply 7, posted (7 years 7 months 4 weeks 1 day 17 hours ago) and read 7208 times:

Quoting AndesSMF (Reply 4):
And once the 787 and 748 are out of the way

Exactly .. By 2010 ( 5 years from A350-1000 EIS) boeing would be done with the 787 and 747-8 programs and the cash flow will be quite good given the 787 and 747-8 deliveries in addition to greater 737 deliveries . Even if boeing decides to go for the 737RS first and spends tons of money between 2012-2015 they can still start and industrial program in 2013-2014 timeframe and have the aircraft EIS 2-3 years later then the A350-1000 which isnt all that bad if one really looks at it .

Quoting KFLLCFII (Reply 1):
which is to compete with the 777-300ER, won't be arriving until nine years from today. Mind you, we forecast a market of 1,450 airplane deliveries in this size category (200-400 seats) between now and 2015.

I think 1450 is being rather conservative , The 787 and 777 have received 591 orders in the last 2 years alone , if you add up the A330/340 and A350 no.s you can well see that the market really is taking in the 200-400 sized aircraft in large gulps and even if this trend dies down (which I dont seeing looking at the continuing 787 orders , Another close to 100 orders/year year for 777 and healthy sales for A330 family) or slows down we can still potentially see much greater then 1450 aircrafts being sold between now and 2015 and close to 30-40% of these aircrafts will most likely be the 777/340 family

Quoting Zvezda (Reply 2):
Normal marketing spin; nothing really insightful this time

Well he does raise a valid point about Airbus comparing their A350-8 to a smaller 787-8 when the 787-9 seems to be a more appropriate comparison . Other then that he really isnt a source from whom we can expect really "insightful" stuff on the A350-XWB !!


User currently offlineSirOmega From United States of America, joined Sep 2005, 735 posts, RR: 0
Reply 8, posted (7 years 7 months 4 weeks 1 day 17 hours ago) and read 7202 times:

I love seeeing that 787-10 model on Randy's chart. Just a bit above a 359. It wouldnt surprise me if they managed to beat Airbus to market with a 787-10 in 2012 and the 359 doesnt arrive until 2013.

User currently offlineBringiton From United States of America, joined Sep 2006, 866 posts, RR: 0
Reply 9, posted (7 years 7 months 4 weeks 1 day 17 hours ago) and read 7196 times:

Quoting Nwray (Reply 6):
Any reason for this?

Because there is demand and they can sell the A330 and make money , When the big airlines line up for the A350 the production slots will fly off the shelf leaving plenty of room for the A330 to sell which BTW is smaller then the A350-8 and competes better with the 787-8 interms of capacity.


User currently offlineZvezda From Lithuania, joined Aug 2004, 10511 posts, RR: 64
Reply 10, posted (7 years 7 months 4 weeks 1 day 17 hours ago) and read 7166 times:

Quoting Nwray (Reply 6):
Devastate or be competitive with? Do you mean fuel efficiency wise?

I wrote devastate because I meant devastate. Yes, I mean fuel efficiency and sales. The only sales advantage I see of the B777 over the A350 is earlier availability.

Quoting Nwray (Reply 6):
Also, probably a dumb question, but will Airbus continue to produce A330s after the A350 introduction? Any reason for this?

Yes, Airbus will continue to produce the A330 after the A350 is in production, for as long as there are orders to fulfill. Boeing produced the rope-start B737s for years after the B737NGs entered production.


User currently offlineWingedMigrator From United States of America, joined Oct 2005, 2212 posts, RR: 56
Reply 11, posted (7 years 7 months 4 weeks 1 day 17 hours ago) and read 7141 times:

Quoting Zvezda (Reply 2):
Normal marketing spin; nothing really insightful this time.

Agree... right down to the size graphic. If you look at it carefully, the vertical scale corresponds to the bottom of the fuselage for B planes, versus the top of the fuselage for A planes. Classic visual distortion of data, beautifully executed... the artiste who did that should be congratulated.

Quoting Zvezda (Reply 2):
I'm pessimistic about the A350 because I think the composite fuselage panels are stupid and a manifestation of not-invented-here syndrome. However, I'm prepared to wait and see as the design details are firmed.

I think that'll be interesting. There's a lot of hot air (enough to fill an autoclave) being blown about on the composites issues, and I find it hard to separate signal from noise. There may be some interesting effects with production yield... the bigger the part, the greater the chance of a defect, somewhat like chip wafers or computer displays. I wonder what sort of production yield the 787 contractors are shooting for... 67%, 95%, 99% ?

There are too many variables to consider and no information (at least in the trade press or a.net) on which factors truly drive performance or production cost. One must remember that things are rarely as they seem.


User currently offlineLeelaw From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 12, posted (7 years 7 months 4 weeks 1 day 16 hours ago) and read 6996 times:

Quoting Zvezda (Reply 2):
I'm pessimistic about the A350 because I think the composite fuselage panels are stupid and a manifestation of not-invented-here syndrome.

I understand the joke going around at ILFC this week is that John Leahy has switched from playing "Three-card Composite Monte" to the "Composite Shell Game." 

[Edited 2006-12-06 08:58:56]

User currently offlineFlyDreamliner From United States of America, joined Jan 2006, 2759 posts, RR: 15
Reply 13, posted (7 years 7 months 4 weeks 1 day 15 hours ago) and read 6954 times:

Quoting Zvezda (Reply 2):
Normal marketing spin; nothing really insightful this time. I'm pessimistic about the A350 because I think the composite fuselage panels are stupid and a manifestation of not-invented-here syndrome.

It's a mistake in the long term. It's cheaper and faster to do composite panels, but it won't likely offer the weight savings of barrels, and so when the barrel composite Y3 comes out, it will be at an advantage.

I think it is a bad move on airbus's part.

I think Boeing needs to get cracking on Y3, so they can keep the sale going once A350 starts to cool the 777 down.



"Let the world change you, and you can change the world"
User currently offlineSparkingWave From South Korea, joined Jun 2005, 670 posts, RR: 0
Reply 14, posted (7 years 7 months 4 weeks 1 day 15 hours ago) and read 6954 times:

Quoting Zvezda (Reply 10):
Quoting Nwray (Reply 6):
Devastate or be competitive with? Do you mean fuel efficiency wise?

I wrote devastate because I meant devastate. Yes, I mean fuel efficiency and sales. The only sales advantage I see of the B777 over the A350 is earlier availability.

You don't know what the B777 will be like when the A350 finally comes out. Why do you assume that it will be the same? Do you really think that Boeing is just going to stand still, like Airbus did with the original A350?



Flights to the moon and all major space stations. At Pan Am, the sky is no longer the limit!
User currently offlineWingedMigrator From United States of America, joined Oct 2005, 2212 posts, RR: 56
Reply 15, posted (7 years 7 months 4 weeks 1 day 15 hours ago) and read 6906 times:

Quoting SparkingWave (Reply 14):
Do you really think that Boeing is just going to stand still, like Airbus did with the original A350?

You've answered your own question. The original A350 was to the A330 as an improved B777 would be to the current B777. I'll leave you to predict the result  Smile

Quoting MCIGuy (Reply 3):
Y3



Quoting Ken777 (Reply 5):
Y3



Quoting FlyDreamliner (Reply 13):
Y3

Y3 is all things to all people right now.


User currently offlineBaron95 From United States of America, joined May 2006, 1335 posts, RR: 8
Reply 16, posted (7 years 7 months 4 weeks 1 day 15 hours ago) and read 6897 times:

Quoting Zvezda (Reply 2):
Certainly, the A350 will devastate the B777

Are you serious? Did/will the 787 "devastate" the A330? Of course not, sales of A330 are actually quite healthy after the launch of the 787, even though the 787 is a quite a jump in technology/efficiency.

Even if Boeing does nothing to improve the 77F, 77L and 77W, there are many reasons why the 777 will continue to do well:

1 - Competition for the 77W arrives in 2015, for the 77L and 77F, much later - that is 10 years from now give or take. So Boeing will continue to deliver these planes to carriers worldwide, building substantial fleets.

2 - Comonality alone, will assure follow-up orders. If Delta with 50 777s by 2015 needs 10 more planes on the class, chances are they'll top off with 777s.

3 - Airbus will not have the capacity to build even 1/3 of planes needed in the 300-400 seats, so some orders will go to Boeing and 777 just based on availability.

4 - While the 77L/W/F are very expensive planes, it looks like the A350 is very expensive and then some. In addition, Boeing will be in "milk the cow" mode with the 777 come 2015 and will be able to be very aggressive on price. Airbus on the other hand has to recoup the US$13B investment. So Boeing and the 777 will win some on price.

5 - Some major customers like AA, are very unlikely to buy Airbus. So Boeing and the 777 will win some on loyalty alone.

So, net/net, the A350 will put presure on the 777, but it will hardly "devastate" it.

Now, if Boeing just hangs A350 engines on the 777, of takes 12000 lbs of weight out of them (in progress), etc...well, now the A350 is simply an anoyance.



Killer Fleet: E190, 737-900ER, 777-300ER
User currently offlineRuscoe From Australia, joined Aug 1999, 1546 posts, RR: 2
Reply 17, posted (7 years 7 months 4 weeks 1 day 15 hours ago) and read 6888 times:

Quoting Zvezda (Reply 2):
Certainly, the A350 will devastate the B777

I agree with you if the 777 stays the same, but Boeing will either do the Y3 or upgrade the 777.


What will be the empty weight of the 350-1000. The Trent 1000 for the 787 weighs 12,000lbs and has a max rateing of 75,000lbs, so expect the 2 engines for the 350-10 @95,000 lbs, to add another maybe 5000lbs, plus all the structure necessary to support the extra thrust and size and weight.

Boeings plan I would think will be to lighten the structure enough to allow the use of the same engines as the 350-10, for a similar payload/range but probably inferior effeciency, but cheaper purchase price, to keep the line open until the Y3 comes along.

Ruscoe


User currently offlineZvezda From Lithuania, joined Aug 2004, 10511 posts, RR: 64
Reply 18, posted (7 years 7 months 4 weeks 1 day 15 hours ago) and read 6879 times:

Quoting SparkingWave (Reply 14):
You don't know what the B777 will be like when the A350 finally comes out. Why do you assume that it will be the same? Do you really think that Boeing is just going to stand still, like Airbus did with the original A350?

There is nothing Boeing can do to the B777 that would make it competitive with the A350 short of a clean-sheet design. Heck, there is nothing Boeing can do to the B777 to make it competitive with the B787. The B777 was a great airliner (I'll be flying on one two hours from now) but its time is waning. I believe the main reason the B777 is still selling is that it's available (much) sooner than the B787-10.


User currently offlineKeesje From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 19, posted (7 years 7 months 4 weeks 1 day 15 hours ago) and read 6838 times:

talk, talk

http://today.reuters.com/news/articl...EADS-EMIRATES.XML&rpc=66&type=qcna

 Wink


User currently offlineNW727251ADV From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 20, posted (7 years 7 months 4 weeks 1 day 14 hours ago) and read 6758 times:

Emirates is really getting on my nerves with their pompous and pretentious attutude of handling business. They are always trying to pursuade A and B to tailor aircrafts to THEIR specific needs. This isn't the the 60s & 70s when you had manufacturers making aircraft specifically for a certain airline the the DC-10 and L-1011 for United and American or the Trident for British European. And every true aviation enthusiast knows that disaster that became of the Trident as a result of their aircraft being constantly modified to meet the needs of only BEA. Emirates need to take whats offered and if it isn;t good enough then too bad. What do they need all of these planes for outside of entering the aircraft leasing business? They want the 747-8 tailored to suite them; they want the 787-10 tailored to suite them; they want the A350 tailored to suite them; and IIRC they want the A380-900 built to their specifications. EK needs to get down off its high horse. It is one pretentious airline.

User currently offlineSolnabo From Sweden, joined Jan 2008, 851 posts, RR: 2
Reply 21, posted (7 years 7 months 4 weeks 1 day 14 hours ago) and read 6724 times:

There´s not only EK on high horses, we got SQ who wanna be flying with the state-of-the art/ latest a/c models . They are really whiners iyam, behaving like a spoild brat.

Micke//  Angry



Airbus SAS - Love them both
User currently offlineWINGS From Portugal, joined May 2005, 2831 posts, RR: 68
Reply 22, posted (7 years 7 months 4 weeks 1 day 14 hours ago) and read 6703 times:

Quoting NW727251ADV (Reply 20):
Emirates is really getting on my nerves with their pompous and pretentious attutude of handling business. They are always trying to pursuade A and B to tailor aircrafts to THEIR specific needs. This isn't the the 60s & 70s when you had manufacturers making aircraft specifically for a certain airline the the DC-10 and L-1011 for United and American or the Trident for British European.

No harm in trying. May I also note that the A380 delays can also be associated to tailoring the plane to the needs of various airlines.

Back on topic, I think that Mr Randy, could have put more effort into his report. Same old stuff as usual.

Regards,
Wings



Aviation Is A Passion.
User currently offlineParapente From United Kingdom, joined Mar 2006, 1548 posts, RR: 10
Reply 23, posted (7 years 7 months 4 weeks 1 day 14 hours ago) and read 6705 times:

Randy quote..is going to be constructed in a traditional manner, except with composite panels rather than aluminum panels. For an airplane like the 787, we think that sacrifices some of the benefits of going with composite material.

...THe key is ..."like "the 787. He is quite right Boeing do have the most efficient method for aircraft"like" the 787. The panel/shell approach is correct for aircraft "like" the BWB. He is also right to talk as he does at the end for the need for breakthrough technology. It is easily forgotten that it was totally accepted that you could not build a wing stiff enough and light enough as a giant twin (you had to use the weight of the outer engine). The boeing 777 (esp the 300er) was "breakthrough". As will the BWB be. The A350 is Airbus' last mistake


User currently offlineDanny From Poland, joined Apr 2002, 3508 posts, RR: 2
Reply 24, posted (7 years 7 months 4 weeks 1 day 14 hours ago) and read 6684 times:

He is becoming more aggressive in his blog entries directly hitting on Airbus. This is getting unprofessional for an executive and shows that he is getting seriously nervous about A350.

25 Post contains images Solnabo : Hell, Randy is payed to doom Airbus and a cheerleader for Boeing´s huge breakthrou like 773ER and BWB(??).. I rest my case Micke//
26 AndesSMF : There is nothing at the moment to get nervous about the A350, they are years behind, giving Boeing years to make actual sales and deliveries. But now
27 Post contains images Solnabo : @ Andes SMF qote> "Airbus hasn´t made any points by criticizing the 787 concept" Airbus take the hight road instead of cheap bashing? Micke//
28 Post contains images Bringiton : How about some of the Leahy quotes on the 787 ? I'm sure they have been posted before , but what randy has to say is far far more civil then what lea
29 Columba : I have just an article in which said that EK is considering to buy the A350XWB. I would have rather said is in talks with Airbus about the A350XWB bu
30 MCIGuy : OK...
31 Mptpa : Even if Boeing starts Y3 in 2011/12, they could bring it in 4 years as that is their development cycle. It would be a NEW technology frame with lots
32 Osiris30 : Some thoughts: @Danny: So let me get this right. Randy is getting nervous because he calls bullshit on Airbus's lies? (Like incorrect comparisons). Ok
33 Semobeila : Reminds me of the pessimistic outlook Boeing gave when Airbus launched the A320... nothing more to add, just marketing blabla.
34 BoomBoom : Nervous about what? Airbus has given the 777 a 10 year reprieve. It will certainly top 1000 passenger models. It's a lot better to sell 1000 copies i
35 Grantcv : What are you talking about? This is utter rubbish. The B777 is a larger aircraft than the B787 and serves a different need. There is no B787 model th
36 7cubed : Could you post a link to the technical data on the new a350? I wasn't aware the performance guarantees were made available yet.
37 Revelation : I agree, Randy's blog is getting to be more sizzle, less bacon. Did you notice how the caption of the artiste's rendering refers to 10 abreast in a 7
38 Post contains links Danny : About lies read here: http://www.flightglobal.com/Articles...oeing+claims+over+A380+weight.html
39 Osiris30 : " target=_blank>http://www.flightglobal.com/Articles....html Danny: Never did I say Boeing hasn't done the same thing. However, I didn't see you takin
40 Post contains images Jacobin777 : I'll take 10-across with 34' seat pitch ANY day over 9-across with 31-32' seat pitch....
41 Post contains links BoomBoom : He put more effort in than Airbus did with New Airbus Website To Promote A350XWB http://www.airbus.com/store/mm_repository/flash/a350xwb/airbus/ Dann
42 Jacobin777 : "Boeing was one of the co-sponsors of the study. We took part because nobody had ever formally studied the issue in this manner. Before now, there wa
43 Flysherwood : I would have to say that this is a big advantage, wouldn't you? What use is a plane design that is 7-8 years away from fruition to an airline that ne
44 Zvezda : The B787 has an exterior cross section of 226x235 while the B777 has an external cross section of 244x244, however, the internal cross section is muc
45 Glideslope : So quote some intentional misinformation from Randy over the years? He is right on with this blog. If not for the "Bail Out" Airbus would be bankrupt
46 Grantcv : While Randy is paid to promote Boeing, his blog is always well informed. The statements he makes are always valid, even if he does promote the Boeing
47 RIX : But then A350 is a toast (assuming, 78B at least matches 773 in range)...
48 Acheron : Nice to see a lot of so called aviation enthusiasts wishing the A350 and Airbus to fail.
49 Osiris30 : Wishing it they will fail.. no I don't see that (other than a few odd exceptions).. speculating that they might, sure. Tired of the constant bullshit
50 Coa747 : How does the A350 effectively compete with the 777 when it has a smaller fuselage cross section. The cross section of the 777 is one of the reasons it
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