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Will Boeing Outsale Airbus This Year?  
User currently offlineLY777 From France, joined Nov 2005, 2679 posts, RR: 2
Posted (7 years 8 months 1 week 1 day 2 hours ago) and read 7200 times:

Do you think that Boeing will outsale Airbus this year?
What are the figures for both manufacturers for the time being?


אמא, אני מתגעגע לך
36 replies: All unread, showing first 25:
 
User currently offlineEI321 From Iraq, joined Jul 2009, 0 posts, RR: 0
Reply 1, posted (7 years 8 months 1 week 1 day 2 hours ago) and read 7180 times:

With Boeing ahead It looks like they will, but then thats exactly what said this time last year  Smile

User currently offlineFlysherwood From United States of America, joined Jul 2006, 1115 posts, RR: 0
Reply 2, posted (7 years 8 months 1 week 1 day 1 hour ago) and read 7104 times:

Quoting EI321 (Reply 1):
With Boeing ahead It looks like they will, but then thats exactly what said this time last year

It depends on when Airbus says the year ends. 2005 ended on January 20 something according to them!  Wink


User currently offlineStitch From United States of America, joined Jul 2005, 30886 posts, RR: 87
Reply 3, posted (7 years 8 months 1 week 1 day 1 hour ago) and read 7116 times:
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Quoting LY777 (Thread starter):
Do you think that Boeing will outsale Airbus this year?

Boeing should easily outsell Airbus again in terms of value, and so far looks to outsell Airbus in terms of raw frames.


User currently offlineScouseflyer From United Kingdom, joined Apr 2006, 3387 posts, RR: 9
Reply 4, posted (7 years 8 months 1 week 1 day 1 hour ago) and read 7106 times:

In a word yes, well done B!

Quoting Flysherwood (Reply 2):

It depends on when Airbus says the year ends. 2005 ended on January 20 something according to them!

Yawn, even if they did cheat at the begining of this year (which they didn't) they couldn't make 2006 any longer than a year as they'd of already stolen the first 20 days of it


User currently offlineEI321 From Iraq, joined Jul 2009, 0 posts, RR: 0
Reply 5, posted (7 years 8 months 1 week 1 day 1 hour ago) and read 7090 times:

Quoting Flysherwood (Reply 2):
It depends on when Airbus says the year ends. 2005 ended on January 20 something according to them!


Do you mean the chinese A320s? My understanding is that they were just dished out to the various airlines in january, but the order was actually signed in Dec?


User currently offlineFlysherwood From United States of America, joined Jul 2006, 1115 posts, RR: 0
Reply 6, posted (7 years 8 months 1 week 1 day 1 hour ago) and read 7053 times:

Quoting EI321 (Reply 6):
Do you mean the chinese A320s? My understanding is that they were just dished out to the various airlines in january, but the order was actually signed in Dec?

It doesn't really matter how they try to skew the numbers. Boeing have outsold Airbus in widebodies by almost 4 to 1 so far. If they still come out and beat Boeing, the counting will have been done by Arthur Andersen and Andrew Fastow. And yes, it had nothing to do with the shares sold by Mr. Forgeard!!!  Wink


User currently offlineLHStarAlliance From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 7, posted (7 years 8 months 1 week 1 day 1 hour ago) and read 7052 times:

Quoting LY777 (Thread starter):
Do you think that Boeing will outsale Airbus this year?
What are the figures for both manufacturers for the time being?

Wait the year hasn´t finished yet, airbus has some LOI firmed and maybe as last year we will see Airbus coming the 27 of December with 100 320 bought from China ... but the most possible is that B wins this year ...

I say you , the next year will be the most interesting with an big LH , BA , CX , EK ,AF/KL, IB and maybe UA ,AA and US order .


User currently offlineAirTran737 From United States of America, joined Apr 2004, 3704 posts, RR: 12
Reply 8, posted (7 years 8 months 1 week 1 day 1 hour ago) and read 7020 times:
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Quoting LY777 (Thread starter):
Do you think that Boeing will outsale Airbus this year?

In theory yes, but remember Airbus adds orders to the previous year in mid January. Apparently the calendar in Toulouse is 13 months long. Seriously though, it looks like B will take the order contest this year, but A will still have the deliveries.



Nice Trip Report!!! Great Pics, thanks for posting!!!! B747Forever
User currently offlineEI321 From Iraq, joined Jul 2009, 0 posts, RR: 0
Reply 9, posted (7 years 8 months 1 week 1 day 1 hour ago) and read 6998 times:

Quoting Flysherwood (Reply 7):
It doesn't really matter how they try to skew the numbers.

Well if the order is signed in dec its hardly skewed is it. Its either yes or no.


User currently offlineIkramerica From United States of America, joined May 2005, 21507 posts, RR: 60
Reply 10, posted (7 years 8 months 1 week 1 day 1 hour ago) and read 6964 times:

Quoting AirTran737 (Reply 9):
In theory yes, but remember Airbus adds orders to the previous year in mid January. Apparently the calendar in Toulouse is 13 months long.

Whether or not that happened last year, it can't happen this year unless they wait until February. After all, Jan 17th 2006 to Jan 17th 2007 is still only 12 months.

We are already seeing both airlines eek out some top up orders in December. 4 here, 3 there, 2 somewhere else. It's all about turning the screws on the LoI's and trying to get the last sales together. But right now, Boeing's Firm total is just barely below the Airbus Firm+Pending total, which makes it very hard for Airbus to catch up without new orders.

There will also likely be some last minute larger orders, like 25-75 737s and A320s at the last minute. But Airbus is going to need 200+ last minute new orders, firmed, like last December to "win."

We'll see how it shakes out. Only 10 days left...



Of all the things to worry about... the Wookie has no pants.
User currently offlineZvezda From Lithuania, joined Aug 2004, 10511 posts, RR: 64
Reply 11, posted (7 years 8 months 1 week 1 day ago) and read 6820 times:

Quoting AirTran737 (Reply 9):
Seriously though, it looks like B will take the order contest this year, but A will still have the deliveries.

Yes, and Airbus will have the most deliveries again in 2007. Boeing will take the delivery win in 2008.


User currently offlineFXramper From United States of America, joined Dec 2005, 7247 posts, RR: 85
Reply 12, posted (7 years 8 months 1 week 1 day ago) and read 6773 times:
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Is the Pope, catholic?  yes 

Quoting LY777 (Thread starter):
Do you think that Boeing will outsale Airbus this year?

 checkmark 


User currently offlineFlysherwood From United States of America, joined Jul 2006, 1115 posts, RR: 0
Reply 13, posted (7 years 8 months 1 week 23 hours ago) and read 6628 times:

Quoting LHStarAlliance (Reply 8):
I say you , the next year will be the most interesting with an big LH , BA , CX , EK ,AF/KL, IB and maybe UA ,AA and US order .

Didn't LH just order 20 747-8i with option for 20 more? That seems pretty big.


User currently offlineFlysherwood From United States of America, joined Jul 2006, 1115 posts, RR: 0
Reply 14, posted (7 years 8 months 1 week 21 hours ago) and read 6426 times:

Quoting Dallasnewark (Reply 17):
You maybe, but not me.

It is OK Thorben. We understand how hard it is for you to accept the fact that Boeing will soon regain the title as the #1 commercial airliner manufacturer in the world and that Airbus will keep slipping further behind.


User currently offlineNAV20 From Australia, joined Nov 2003, 9909 posts, RR: 36
Reply 15, posted (7 years 8 months 1 week 21 hours ago) and read 6393 times:

Quoting Flysherwood (Reply 19):
Boeing will soon regain the title as the #1 commercial airliner manufacturer in the world

I think that title will remain with Airbus this year, in terms of numbers of frames delivered. They are doing everything they can to raise production rates. Boeing will take the honours in terms of the value of aircraft delivered, as they did last year - I would expect the value split to be around 35% Airbus, 65% Boeing.

Quoting EI321 (Reply 6):
Do you mean the chinese A320s? My understanding is that they were just dished out to the various airlines in january, but the order was actually signed in Dec?

The 'order' was announced in January, but may well not have been completely firmed up with airlines even yet. As I understand the Chinese deal announced last year, and the one this year, amount to 'import licences' - the Government authorises X number of imported aircraft, but it is still up to Airbus to find and firm up the deals with individual airlines. Boeing also had 150 X 737 Chinese Government 'orders' of this sort last year, but did not count them as 'firm' for 2006 - indeed, at a guess, not all of them are yet shown on Boeing's Orders site. Boeing are only entering them up as 'firm' when an individual airline signs up.

Worth mentioning, too, that the most recent 150 X A320 order is not a 'normal' one in any case. The deal is conditional on Airbus establishing a factory in China at which the aircraft will be assembled. Besides the high up-front capital cost, Airbus will have to share the profits with the Chinese partner. So that deal is unlikely to be as profitable as a normal 150-plane order.



"Once you have flown, you will walk the earth with your eyes turned skywards.." - Leonardo da Vinci
User currently offlineBoomBoom From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 16, posted (7 years 8 months 1 week 21 hours ago) and read 6393 times:

Quote:
Clouds were already gathering on Jan. 17, as Airbus announced 1,111 orders for 2005 - a new industry record - to Boeing's 1,002. Measured by catalogue value, Airbus had lost its market leadership to Boeing, as its order share fell to 45 per cent from 54 per cent in 2004.

Based on orders so far, Airbus is set to fall behind Boeing's full-year tally for the first time since 2000, as its share of new business by value extends its slide to about 37 per cent.

http://www.canada.com/topics/finance...8ce-46bb-8203-9ebd3114a0e1&k=26052


User currently offlineLumberton From United States of America, joined Jul 2005, 4708 posts, RR: 20
Reply 17, posted (7 years 8 months 1 week 21 hours ago) and read 6373 times:

Quoting NAV20 (Reply 20):
Worth mentioning, too, that the most recent 150 X A320 order is not a 'normal' one in any case. The deal is conditional on Airbus establishing a factory in China at which the aircraft will be assembled. Besides the high up-front capital cost, Airbus will have to share the profits with the Chinese partner. So that deal is unlikely to be as profitable as a normal 150-plane order.

Although we don't know all the details NAV20, I suspect both 150 plane orders are contingent on this assembly facility in China. 300 A320s out of what? A 1400 plane backlog? That's fairly significant; greater than 20%.

[Edited 2006-12-20 01:32:03]


"When all is said and done, more will be said than done".
User currently offlineIkramerica From United States of America, joined May 2005, 21507 posts, RR: 60
Reply 18, posted (7 years 8 months 1 week 21 hours ago) and read 6343 times:

Quoting NAV20 (Reply 20):
indeed, at a guess, not all of them are yet shown on Boeing's Orders site. Boeing are only entering them up as 'firm' when an individual airline signs up.

The remainder were firmed up in the first half of 2006.

And notice also the three canceled 787s. Boeing lists them as canceled because the airline is not going to take them, even though the 3 "rights to buy" are still held by China. They may be reallocated at a later date. But to be as transparent as possible, they are listed as canceled as soon as the action was taken.

This is of course in contrast to various A350 orders at Airbus that are worthless and should be removed, as they are contracted for a plane that has been canceled (the original A350). If orders are signed for the new A350X, even with the same carriers, that's great, it should be a net of zero, but listed as cancel and new order. The A350 and A350X are not the same plane in any way. It's really no different than the 757-300s that CO canceled and the 737-800s they ordered in return a few years back, or when FL was asked to cancel 717s in return for more 73Gs. It may have been a fair swap, but that doesn't mean the cancelations don't go on the books.

I believe Airbus is going to wait and see which works best for them. If they can win this year (and they will know on Jan 5), expect those old A350s to stay on the books (so the net figure is higher). But if they can't win this year, expect some or all of them to go as net cancelations in 2006 to bolster next year, so that new A350X contracts count as a net positive order in 2007. If Airbus thinks they have a good chance of winning a large part of the 772ER replacement orders next year, they may want to eat the cancelations now to help with the "resurgence" of Airbus in 2007. And they can also make the 2006 total press release in mid-January look good by explaining they took a net reduction on the old A350 but expect to rebook most of those orders for the A350X in the coming months...



Of all the things to worry about... the Wookie has no pants.
User currently offlineIsitsafenow From United States of America, joined Feb 2004, 4984 posts, RR: 23
Reply 19, posted (7 years 8 months 1 week 21 hours ago) and read 6343 times:

My opinion to the lead q is Boeing will outsell them this year, next year and probably the year after that. We have the 787 coming on line as well as a slew of 737's in different sizes. Airbus has a problem bird which is costing them lots of their money and their governments money, too. The A350 is very slow to move in sales and the airlines said no to the A318 and A321(low sales).
safe



If two people agree on EVERYTHING, then one isn't necessary.
User currently offlineNAV20 From Australia, joined Nov 2003, 9909 posts, RR: 36
Reply 20, posted (7 years 8 months 1 week 20 hours ago) and read 6294 times:

Quoting Lumberton (Reply 22):
300 A320s out of what? A 1400 plane backlog?

Not quite that bad, Lumberton - the EADS site claims that the backlog at end November was 2,389. But you're right in principle, that figure includes 100-odd 'old new' A350s which even EADS admits are now liabilities rather than assets - and 300 A320s to China which may also now be liabilities, given the likely low margin on A320 sales and the capital and start-up costs of the China plant.

Quoting Ikramerica (Reply 23):
But if they can't win this year, expect some or all of them to go as net cancelations in 2006 to bolster next year, so that new A350X contracts count as a net positive order in 2007.

I doubt we'll live to see the day when Airbus follows Boeing's lead and quotes 'net' order totals, Ikramerica. On past form, Airbus (and even EADS) are likely to go on showing the current 'old new' A350 figures, and just ADD any XWB orders to the 'A350' total.......



"Once you have flown, you will walk the earth with your eyes turned skywards.." - Leonardo da Vinci
User currently offlineIkramerica From United States of America, joined May 2005, 21507 posts, RR: 60
Reply 21, posted (7 years 8 months 1 week 20 hours ago) and read 6331 times:

Quoting NAV20 (Reply 25):
I doubt we'll live to see the day when Airbus follows Boeing's lead and quotes 'net' order totals, Ikramerica.

They did in 2006. Go back and check.

Airbus beat Boeing on net orders by counting the entire China order. Had Boeing accounted for China in the same manner, they would have "won" the race, and if Airbus had done so, Boeing also would have "won" the race. There is no rational way to parse it otherwise. Airbus used a completely different metric (by a different burden of proof) in their mid-Jan announcement but didn't even have the class add a footnote describing the discrepancy that they were 100% aware of and consciously manufactured...

Airbus was measuring in "Kelvin" Boeing was measuring in "Celsius" and Airbus didn't point that out during all their self-congratulations and bragging, plain and simple.

Or to use another analogy, Airbus benefited from a staggered start on a running track with no curves in it...



Of all the things to worry about... the Wookie has no pants.
User currently offlineDrExotica From United States of America, joined Aug 2004, 176 posts, RR: 0
Reply 22, posted (7 years 8 months 1 week 19 hours ago) and read 6232 times:

If you review the Boeing O and D pages, factor in the average list prices of a model, the total approximate value at list prices (through the end of November) is $85.27 billion.

This does not include the Lufthansa 748 order, etc.

Last year as I recall, their order book was near $110 billion at list prices.

[Edited 2006-12-20 03:00:40]


N707PA - Best looking commercial aircraft ever.
User currently offlineMonteycarlos From Australia, joined Mar 2005, 2107 posts, RR: 28
Reply 23, posted (7 years 8 months 1 week 13 hours ago) and read 5958 times:

I maintain that Boeing should re-open the 727 line! Then they would definately outsell Airbus.  Wink


It's a beautiful night to fly like a phoenix...
User currently offlineIwok From Sweden, joined Jan 2005, 1108 posts, RR: 0
Reply 24, posted (7 years 8 months 1 week 13 hours ago) and read 5926 times:

Quoting LY777 (Thread starter):
Do you think that Boeing will outsale Airbus this year?
What are the figures for both manufacturers for the time being?

In my mind, it does not matter one bit. What we have here is a duopoly, and therefore niether party will take more than 50% in the long run. OTOH, if another manufacturer were to come along, now that would be interesting.

iwok


25 Post contains images BoeingFever777 : Does it matter really? Boeing won! Both in frames and value.
26 WINGS : That still remains to be seen. A300F- Airbus studying the possibility not closing the line in mid 2007. A32X - Ramp up to 36-40 frames per month. A33
27 Post contains links Jdevora : The order was announced at the beginning of December CASGC signs agreement for largest ever Chinese order with purchase of 150 A320 Family aircraft T
28 UALMMFlyer : I am still not sure if the order numbers are that meaningful. It appears both manufacturers measure their order numbers differently, and rightly so. I
29 Post contains links NAV20 : Airbus share 'at list prices' confirmed at 36%-37% by one J. Leahy in November, WINGS:- "Leahy said Airbus had taken firm orders for 619 planes so fa
30 Post contains links and images PanAm_DC10 : Hi Flysherwood, Airbus traditionally book all their orders from January 1st through to December 31st. They hold their Media conference to confirm the
31 Flyabunch : As a former sprinter, back in my long distant youth, I like your analogy. With your permission, I will add it to my business seminar repertoire! Mike
32 Gaut : Hello NAV20 I'm not a financial guy so feel free to correct me if I'm wrong: I was surprised by your reply, for me Airbus was a clear "winner" in ter
33 Post contains images Ikramerica : Only because we are both named Mike. Otherwise, I'd have to contact my lawyer...
34 Post contains images Manni : Mr. Leahy has been saying so for several months now. I fully expect Boeing to sell more aircraft then Airbus. However, the gap seems to get much more
35 NAV20 : WINGS, Gaut, apologies. Re-read my own post and realised that I'd inadvertently typed the word 'delivered' when I meant 'ordered.' You're quite right,
36 BandA : depends... do they take paypal?
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