NYC777 From United States of America, joined Jun 2004, 5668 posts, RR: 48
Reply 1, posted (7 years 4 months 21 hours ago) and read 6399 times:
Well there is also:
EK: 787 vs. A350.
AA, UA, DL: 787 vs A350 (787 favored here).
SQ: 772LR and 748I
IB: A350 is favored here
TAM: A350 favored here
AU: 737 vs A320 (A320 favored here)
BA: 773ER without a doubt though they may even throw in some 772LRs.
recent article suggested that the 30 787s were favoured, and an a.net discussion followed. Of course IB is known for getting the cheapest deals from Airbus by favouring Boeing in early stages- see 773ER v A346!!
well if Airbus doesn't get this one it'll be a major slap in the face and a HUGE win fr Boeing. Despite AF/KL's large B777 fleet, I think this is Airbus' one to loose!!! The A350 seems perfectly placed seat wise for them to replace all of the mid-large sized widebodies.
What about airlines like LAN wiht large 767 fleets and A340 fleets that are perhaps not as competitive as the A330/ A350 and B777/ B787 fleets of TAM and AM respectively? Could LAN place orders for either the A350 or 787 in 2007??? That one would definitely be a hard fought battle between Boeing and Airbus for South American dominance!!
MX can also be expected to place a long haul order- finally- since it's now under new ownership and perhaps it is looking to catch up to AM with international expansion!!!
other airlines- AV, JM, WestJet (long haul?), VS (748, A350), South African, QR (firming A350 and more 777s), GF (long haul?), Saudi for 777-300ERs?...
2wingtips From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 7, posted (7 years 4 months 21 hours ago) and read 6284 times:
Austrian has already said they will choose b/w Airbus/Boeing for their NB fleet next month and their WB fleet around mid 2007.
Virgin Blue will decide on 346/773ER for Trans-Pacific services starting late 2008.
Will China continue their large ordering trend from the last couple of years?
AA1818 From Trinidad and Tobago, joined Feb 2006, 3414 posts, RR: 4
Reply 9, posted (7 years 4 months 21 hours ago) and read 6258 times:
Quoting 2wingtips (Reply 7): Austrian has already said they will choose b/w Airbus/Boeing for their NB fleet next month and their WB fleet around mid 2007.
Virgin Blue will decide on 346/773ER for Trans-Pacific services starting late 2008.
two very interesting competitions. I forgot that Virgin Blue were evaluating long haulers!!! GO 777-3ER!!!!!!!!!!
CEO@AFG From Norway, joined Jan 2001, 244 posts, RR: 3
Reply 10, posted (7 years 4 months 21 hours ago) and read 6217 times:
SAS is rumoured to take 1-2 A343 from AC but with a new management you never know.
The 787 is ideal size wise for SK to replace their current longhaul fleet, SK normally doesn't keep their longhaul fleet very long. The 767s were kept roughly 10 years delivered between 1989 and 1992.
The current A330/340 fleet was delivered between 2001 and 2004, by the time SAS would get delivery positions for the 787 or A350, the fleet would be nearing 10 years old, so you never know 2007 is as good a year to order as any, especially since the company seems to be performing well again.
Ken777 From United States of America, joined Mar 2004, 8044 posts, RR: 8
Reply 11, posted (7 years 4 months 20 hours ago) and read 6114 times:
With strong sales this year and last 2007 should be interesting, but maybe not as strong. I think one issue will be the value of the planes airlines want to replace. If on lease there should be no problems, but if they own the planes then used plane prices might be a bit low because of the previous 2 year sales.
One interesting area to watch is QF if the company sale goes through. Will the new owners look at the 787 order with the same level of support as QF had when they placed the order?
The 748i will also be interesting to watch, especially with BA and CX. I think that SQ might take a second look at the 748i, especially if there are more problems with the 380. (OK, I'm an optimist on the 748i . . .)
I don't see US legacies placing any large orders in 2007, but if it is a good year then they may start in 2008.
The most important question for me is the potential of Boeing announcing Y1 before the end of 2007.
Gbfra From Germany, joined Sep 2006, 448 posts, RR: 0
Reply 15, posted (7 years 4 months 19 hours ago) and read 5988 times:
Although at least AA will probably order many B737 we might not see as many orders for narrowbodies than in 2005 and 2006.
2007 could very well become the year of the widebodies with sizeable orders for the B787 and the A350 and probably the B777, although it will be interesting to see if the A350 will start to "devastate" (to quote Zvezda) the B777. Some orders for the A380 and the B748 are also possible.
Even if 2007 might not be as strong as 2005 and 2006 in terms of frames, due to their enormous backlogs Boeing and Airbus will be busy for years to come. Good times for the industry, but they may not last forever. After all, it has been a cyclical business in the past.
Albird87 From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 16, posted (7 years 4 months 19 hours ago) and read 5977 times:
Well AA will have to order some 787s soon if they dont want to operate a really old fleet of 763ERs and A300s!!
Also they have the massive fleet od MDs they will have to replace and also they wont be able to find many 738s from Boeing for a while unless they lease them.
I know BA have ten slots held for some 777s for like 2010 (dont quote me on the year). I think BA will order Boeing (although Willie Walsh seems to favour Airbus when he was at Aer Lingus). Also with the 748 onlyy being powered by GE and BA preferring RR it might be advantage airbus (even though some of there origional T7s were GE powered!). I think it will actually be T7s and then A380s and then well the 787 v. A350 is too hard to see yet ( i hope it will be the 787!)
Trex8 From United States of America, joined Nov 2002, 4493 posts, RR: 14
Reply 17, posted (7 years 4 months 18 hours ago) and read 5892 times:
CI are supposed to finally s... or get off the pot on their 10 aircraft widebody longhaul requirement they have put off from this year to replace earlier 744s. I'll bet on the 747-8I. Then I 'll also bet on 747-8Fs to replace their 21 744Fs mid to late next decade
Then they will need to decide on the A343 replacements. A may have the advantage there for a A359 given all those new A333s they just got. Plus the oldest A343 will only be 12 years when the A350 EIS happens (if it happens!!) so the timing will be good. which could then see them getting A350-1000s for the later 744s
Dbo861 From United States of America, joined May 2004, 861 posts, RR: 1
Reply 18, posted (7 years 4 months 16 hours ago) and read 5804 times:
With all these large 787 orders you guys are predicting, how much of a backlog will the 787 line have this time next year? Isn't the line pretty much already booked solid thru 2011 or 2012? If Boeing does get this many 787 orders next year, soon it's going to get to the point where airlines will be able to get an A350 before a 787 slot is available.
Gemuser From Australia, joined Nov 2003, 5552 posts, RR: 6
Reply 19, posted (7 years 4 months 16 hours ago) and read 5775 times:
Quoting Kaitak (Reply 13): Qantas: possibly 772LR if Boeing can prove it can do the needful on SYD-LON. If QF does order the 772LR, I'd expect the 773ER to be ordered as well, although not necessarily at the same time.
Whats the one got to do with the other?
B722ULR IF its developed into the machine QF want, certainly, the B773???
Carpethead From Japan, joined Aug 2004, 2910 posts, RR: 3
Reply 20, posted (7 years 4 months 15 hours ago) and read 5713 times:
JL: Unless they are planning to downsize from 747s to 787s, a top off order for 773ER/772ER could be in the works. Deliveries from 2008 to 2010. All classic 747s to be retired during this period plus some 744s being converted to 744BCFs.
NH: A few more 773ERs to replace the last of the 744s.
Skynet Asia: Replace the 734s with 737NGs. In the big picture not a very big order, but how about another 10-12 738s.
Mptpa From United States of America, joined Feb 2006, 541 posts, RR: 0
Reply 22, posted (7 years 4 months 4 hours ago) and read 5167 times:
I think SQ is out for 748i as CEO keeps saying it is a 30 yr+ design, and today firming up the 9 380s and optioning another 6. They may be a good candidate for 748F.
CO, AC, QF exercising some of the 787 options.
Who will be new to 787? Perhaps WestJet.
AA, DL, UA for 787
As far as all these new 787s are concerned and the prod backlog, we will see Boeing annnouncing expanded production starting in 2009. They said already they ant to wait 2 years to see how the prod methods and processes and to ease the supplier base production increases as well.
2007 will be an interesting year for both 350 and 787.
Will we see Emirates order 787 and Qatar firming up 350 or switching to 787? I do not know. If 787-10 is offered to the liking of EK, then it would be a grandslam,