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6 X Sukhoi Superjet 100s For Dalavia And More...  
User currently offlineOwlEye From Netherlands, joined Feb 2006, 957 posts, RR: 2
Posted (7 years 6 months 3 weeks 6 days 21 hours ago) and read 6038 times:

MOSCOW - Sukhoi's Superjet is selling well. Some 66 SSJs have been ordered until now.

Dalavia, a regional airline in the Russian far east has signed contract for the purchase of 6 Sukhoi Superjet 100s (SSJ). This has been confirmed by the Russian aircraft manufacturer Sukhoi. Dalavia shall receive two Superjet 100s in 2008, followed by another 4 ones in 2009. Total contract value is worth 170 million US Dollar.

Dalavia wants to operate the SSJ as replacement for the Tupolev Tu-134 and the Yakovlev Yak-42. Dalavia is considering to merge with Aeroflot, the national Russian airline which has already ordered 30 SSJs. First flight of the SSJ is expected in 2007. Earlier this month Air Union, an alliance of 5 Russian airline companies lead by Krasair, signed already a contract for the purchase of 30 SSJs.

Sukhoi will not offer the SSJ to Iran for the time being as the SSJ contains significant US content and technology.

Sources: Luchtvaartnieuws, Flight International and Lila Design

http://www.liladesign.com/Dalavia-SSJ-LilaDesign.jpg

[Edited 2006-12-19 23:47:09]

30 replies: All unread, showing first 25:
 
User currently offlineN328KF From United States of America, joined May 2004, 6483 posts, RR: 3
Reply 1, posted (7 years 6 months 3 weeks 6 days 21 hours ago) and read 5994 times:

This aircraft needs a Western order to "legitimize" it.


When they call the roll in the Senate, the Senators do not know whether to answer 'Present' or 'Not guilty.' T.Roosevelt
User currently offlineOwlEye From Netherlands, joined Feb 2006, 957 posts, RR: 2
Reply 2, posted (7 years 6 months 3 weeks 6 days 21 hours ago) and read 5979 times:

Air Baltic and other regional member airlines of the SAS Group are eying for this aircraft too. An advertisement Lila Design is using to promote their services shows the SSJ in Air Baltic livery:
http://www.liladesign.com/downloads/LilaDesignBalticRRJ.pdf


User currently offlineScouseflyer From United Kingdom, joined Apr 2006, 3371 posts, RR: 9
Reply 3, posted (7 years 6 months 3 weeks 6 days 21 hours ago) and read 5973 times:

Is it my imagination or does it look like a 737 classic?

User currently offlineOwleye From Netherlands, joined Feb 2006, 957 posts, RR: 2
Reply 4, posted (7 years 6 months 3 weeks 6 days 21 hours ago) and read 5928 times:

Quoting Scouseflyer (Reply 3):
Is it my imagination or does it look like a 737 classic?

That's no imagination. Though the SSJ 100 has more of the Dassault Mercure and a bit of the Embraer 170:


View Large View Medium
Click here for bigger photo!

Photo © Toni Marimon



User currently offlineChicagoFlyer From United States of America, joined Jan 2006, 272 posts, RR: 0
Reply 5, posted (7 years 6 months 3 weeks 6 days 20 hours ago) and read 5845 times:

Quoting N328KF (Reply 1):
This aircraft needs a Western order to "legitimize" it.

No that's not what it NEEDS but the Western orders will come. I don't think there's much doubt about the aircraft capabilities; it's the question of reliability from Sukhoi's manufacturing, service and support organizations. That is why Alenia Aeronautca is such a key member of the RRJ team--a reliable Western company handing service/support and getting an unprecedented (for Russia) equity stake in exchange.

Here's my prediction on how the RRJ/Superjet 100 saga will unfold.

1) Sukhoi's primary mission with the plane is replacement of the aging Tu-134s in the CIS countries. It's probably a 1-for-2 replacement, as for each -134 flying now, there's one being repaired or used for parts. But there are at least 100 orders right there, possibly more, and I think the Russian/post-Soviet market is ripe for growth in air transportation; given the 'thinness' of many potential markets in ths vast country with low population density, the 'regional' airplane size fits Russia very well. The manufacturing already started, and last I heard first flight was planned for Fall 2007. Russian certification will probably come in early '08.

2) The secondary mission is taking market share outside the CIS from the current near monopolist--Embraer with its 170/190. To that extent, the European certification should be not far behind the Russian one, but most likely Eastern Europe will be the initial customers... Everyone including Sukhoi understands that most 'blue-chip' Western buyers will wait for the plane to prove itself in the Russian skies, but some of the European majors (who definitely want an alternative to Embraer) will come on board. I have no doubt that by 2010 Sukhoi will be churning out the planes at the max possible rate. Therefore, FAA cert. will probably be attempted a little later, in 2010-11 timeframe. There was even talk of Bombardier doing the marketing in N. America! Who knows, there may be RRJ manufacturing plants built outside Siberia/far East...

3) The tertiary and most strategic mission is the viability of Sukhoi as a manufacturer with a portfolio of commercial aircraft, not limiting itself to regional jets. If the RRJ is a success, they will want to leverage the Superjet 100 as a technological platform to play with the big boys. It will be interesting to watch.


User currently offlineBoeing777/747 From Belgium, joined Dec 2001, 643 posts, RR: 0
Reply 6, posted (7 years 6 months 3 weeks 6 days 9 hours ago) and read 5636 times:

Quoting ChicagoFlyer (Reply 5):
No that's not what it NEEDS but the Western orders will come. I don't think there's much doubt about the aircraft capabilities; it's the question of reliability from Sukhoi's manufacturing, service and support organizations.

Has the wobbling reliability of production and support always been the problem of Russian aircraft manufacturers before but certainly after the fall of the Iron Curtain? Seems that Sukhoi is tackeling this matter well by cooperating with 'western' companies.


User currently offlineOwlEye From Netherlands, joined Feb 2006, 957 posts, RR: 2
Reply 7, posted (7 years 6 months 3 weeks 6 days 8 hours ago) and read 5576 times:

Quoting myself (Thread starter):
Earlier this month Air Union, an alliance of 5 Russian airline companies lead by Krasair, signed already a contract for the purchase of 30 SSJs.

In addition to the 'AiRUnion' info. The alliance of the five airlines: Krasair, Domodedovo Airlines, Samara, Omskavia and Sibaviatrans is formed in late 2004. Remaining independent, the companies have united their resources and cooperate on the mutually beneficial basis. Since June 2005, they are working under the brand 'AiRUnion'.

Here you see AiRUnion's alliance livery operated by Krasair:

View Large View Medium
Click here for bigger photo!

Photo © Felix Mayer727



User currently offlineMrocktor From United States of America, joined Jan 2005, 1668 posts, RR: 50
Reply 8, posted (7 years 6 months 3 weeks 6 days 8 hours ago) and read 5558 times:

Quoting ChicagoFlyer (Reply 5):
To that extent, the European certification should be not far behind the Russian one

My guess is 1 year after, at the very least.


User currently offlineA342 From Germany, joined Jul 2005, 4679 posts, RR: 3
Reply 9, posted (7 years 6 months 3 weeks 6 days 6 hours ago) and read 5465 times:

Quoting ChicagoFlyer (Reply 5):
Who knows, there may be RRJ manufacturing plants built outside Siberia/far East...

Hm, I don't think there will be any outside Russia or the CIS. If you build that aircraft in western countries, there goes the labour cost advantage.



Exceptions confirm the rule.
User currently offlineAirbuseric From Netherlands, joined Jan 2005, 4250 posts, RR: 51
Reply 10, posted (7 years 6 months 3 weeks 6 days 2 hours ago) and read 5331 times:

KL might be interested in this aircraft too as replacement for the F100/F70. These Sukhoi's may be the right aircraft to replace the Fokkers in Europe...


"The whole world steps aside for the man who knows where he is going"
User currently offlineN328KF From United States of America, joined May 2004, 6483 posts, RR: 3
Reply 11, posted (7 years 6 months 3 weeks 6 days 2 hours ago) and read 5308 times:

Quoting Boeing777/747 (Reply 6):

Has the wobbling reliability of production and support always been the problem of Russian aircraft manufacturers before but certainly after the fall of the Iron Curtain? Seems that Sukhoi is tackeling this matter well by cooperating with 'western' companies.

This problem has been solved as Alenia is doing global worldwide support. They want to merge that support organization with ATR.



When they call the roll in the Senate, the Senators do not know whether to answer 'Present' or 'Not guilty.' T.Roosevelt
User currently offlineOwlEye From Netherlands, joined Feb 2006, 957 posts, RR: 2
Reply 12, posted (7 years 6 months 3 weeks 6 days 1 hour ago) and read 5258 times:

Quoting Airbuseric (Reply 10):
KL might be interested in this aircraft too as replacement for the F100/F70. These Sukhoi's may be the right aircraft to replace the Fokkers in Europe...

Is this wishful thinking or a serious matter? Isn't Airbus or Embraer more favorite to KLM or KLM Cityhopper? Would it be the price of the SSJ that might it make attractive to AF/KL?


User currently offlineTangowhisky From United States of America, joined Jun 2006, 903 posts, RR: 7
Reply 13, posted (7 years 6 months 3 weeks 6 days 1 hour ago) and read 5243 times:

Quoting N328KF (Reply 11):
This problem has been solved as Alenia is doing global worldwide support. They want to merge that support organization with ATR.

Now that would be interesting. That would give the Superjet the credibility it needs in the West for world class product support. About 17 year ago, Bombardier after buying Canadair that was still designing the CRJ, shortly after bought de Havilland which had a product support organisation dealing for its Dash-8s. This helped the CRJ program as the product had some credibility being based on the Challenger, and the product support credibility was proven (de Havilland). Fast forwrad, Bombardier builds, sells, and supports RJs and turboprops. Alenia seems like they are trying to do the same. EADS needs cash, perhaps Alenia can raise some money and buy EADS remaining 50% onwnership of ATR.

Now if Alenia can pull off ATR and Sukhoi in the same manner, this would be a huge break for the Russians to sell their jets in the West.

Quoting ChicagoFlyer (Reply 5):
the Western orders will come. I don't think there's much doubt about the aircraft capabilities; it's the question of reliability from Sukhoi's manufacturing, service and support organizations. That is why Alenia Aeronautca is such a key member of the RRJ team--a reliable Western company handing service/support and getting an unprecedented (for Russia) equity stake in exchange.

 checkmark 

Quoting ChicagoFlyer (Reply 5):
given the 'thinness' of many potential markets in ths vast country with low population density, the 'regional' airplane size fits Russia very well.

 checkmark 

Quoting ChicagoFlyer (Reply 5):
The secondary mission is taking market share outside the CIS from the current near monopolist--Embraer with its 170/190.

Yes, and Embraer better realize that it too needs to get on with large order sales of the E-jets, and then start thinking about a 5 abreast jet like the Superjet as the 90-140 seat market is much larger than the 70-120 seat market.



Only the paranoid survive
User currently offlinePPVRA From Brazil, joined Nov 2004, 8930 posts, RR: 40
Reply 14, posted (7 years 6 months 3 weeks 6 days 1 hour ago) and read 5225 times:

Quoting Tangowhisky (Reply 13):
5 abreast jet like the Superjet as the 90-140 seat market is much larger than the 70-120 seat market.

A whole lot riskier, too.



"If goods do not cross borders, soldiers will" - Frederic Bastiat
User currently offlineTangowhisky From United States of America, joined Jun 2006, 903 posts, RR: 7
Reply 15, posted (7 years 6 months 3 weeks 6 days ago) and read 5190 times:

Quoting PPVRA (Reply 14):
Quoting Tangowhisky (Reply 13):
5 abreast jet like the Superjet as the 90-140 seat market is much larger than the 70-120 seat market.

A whole lot riskier, too.

The risk is that if Boeing or Airbus would place a true clean sheet design plane for th 90-140 seat segment (not a shrunken 737RS/Y1), then you have a point that it is a whole lot riskier. With recent developments, I don't see Airbus spending their narrowbody replacement Euros in this sector, considering the unfolding of events and where they will focus on the next 10 years. Boeing might, but this too is becoming more doubtful as they have more important fish to chase: 748, 787, Y1, Y2. I don't see the Chinese ARJ making it in the West as it is 717 with CF34-10 engines, no breakthrough in technology, and questionable product support. The C series by Bombardier sounds dead.

Therefore if Alenia can pull it off with Sukhoi, they can enjoy the 90-140 seat market (with derivatives) quite well. So why not Embraer? Embraer can make a 5 abreast jet, copy the cockpit and handling qualities of the E-Jets to this so called E200 and have a wide family product line 70-140 or 150 seats.



Only the paranoid survive
User currently offlineMrocktor From United States of America, joined Jan 2005, 1668 posts, RR: 50
Reply 16, posted (7 years 6 months 3 weeks 6 days ago) and read 5169 times:

Quoting Tangowhisky (Reply 15):
Embraer can make a 5 abreast jet, copy the cockpit and handling qualities of the E-Jets to this so called E200 and have a wide family product line 70-140 or 150 seats.

Makes no sense to sink all those billion dollars into development, come under fire from A&B and only extend the product line to 150pax. The BBD CSeries is proof of this.

Either EMBRAER will bite the bullet and design a 737/320 class airliner or it will retreat to the sub 90pax market when the all composite, family integrated Boeing 100 seater comes out. Boeing is not going to leave the gap open and they are not going to repeat the 737-600 mistakes.


User currently offlineTangowhisky From United States of America, joined Jun 2006, 903 posts, RR: 7
Reply 17, posted (7 years 6 months 3 weeks 6 days ago) and read 5138 times:

Quoting Mrocktor (Reply 16):
Makes no sense to sink all those billion dollars into development, come under fire from A&B and only extend the product line to 150pax. The BBD CSeries is proof of this.

I agree with you that one would be under fire against A&B. But.....

Quoting Mrocktor (Reply 16):
Either EMBRAER will bite the bullet and design a 737/320 class airliner or it will retreat to the sub 90pax market when the all composite, family integrated Boeing 100 seater comes out. Boeing is not going to leave the gap open and they are not going to repeat the 737-600 mistakes.

If Embraer was to go head on with A&B it will be similar to the pressure Airbus has been with the A350, as airlines were using the 787 as a benchmark. What I am saying is that if Embraer was to make a 150+ seater against Boieng's composite, bleedless, etc. etc, Y1, Embraer would be in the situation Airbus was/is with the A350 unless they can prove they have superior technology.

It is better to develop a 110-140 seat jet with 5 abreast so that the Boeing "benchmark" would not be an issue as much. I believe Sukhoi will benefit from this in the same manner.

As for the Cseries failure, some say it is because Bombardier is getting too close to Airbus and Boeing, so airlines would rather wait. They will wait if there is no compelling offer. There is nothing exy about the C series. The C series was originally longer and all aluminum, now they are making it shorter and proposing a composite wing as BBD realized they (like Airbus/A350 are not aggressive from the technology point of views). This in turn makes airlines think that the CASMs are a pie in the sky unless the new Boeing technologies are on these competing airplanes. The point is that it is too familiar like the A350 saga and airlines did not want the A350, and they do not want the C Series thinking Y1 will be better. I don't think Embraer will have the technology advantage that Boeing has, so makes no sense to go head-on in the 150 seat plus segment. Therefore it makes more sense for them to go one notch below Boeing and still grow their business. I am very bearish on Embraer's 70-110 seat market outlook. Today Bear Stearns gave Embraer an "Underperform" and I believe the stock's honeymoon is over as is the over bullish 70-110 sat market outlook.



Only the paranoid survive
User currently offlineA342 From Germany, joined Jul 2005, 4679 posts, RR: 3
Reply 18, posted (7 years 6 months 3 weeks 5 days 23 hours ago) and read 5123 times:

Quoting Tangowhisky (Reply 13):
a 5 abreast jet like the Superjet as the 90-140 seat market

To set this straight: The SSJ family covers the 60-110 seat range. It may have 5-abreast, but the capacity of the SSJ100 isn't higher than the capacity of the E190.



Exceptions confirm the rule.
User currently offlineRainmaker From Brazil, joined Jan 2006, 114 posts, RR: 0
Reply 19, posted (7 years 6 months 3 weeks 5 days 23 hours ago) and read 5119 times:

Quoting OwlEye (Thread starter):
Dalavia, a regional airline in the Russian far east has signed contract for the purchase of 6 Sukhoi Superjet 100s (SSJ). This has been confirmed by the Russian aircraft manufacturer Sukhoi. Dalavia shall receive two Superjet 100s in 2008, followed by another 4 ones in 2009. Total contract value is worth 170 million US Dollar.

That price tag would make for a very "normal" USD 28 MM each, which is in no way behind the CRJ900 / E175 prices the market perceives. On the other hand there could be some kind of long time maintenance invelved but at this time of the project it is not very likely. So the price advantage enjoyed by Sukhoi could not be overwhelming concerning western sales campaigns. For the CIS the difference may reside on the import taxes levied on foreign a/c.


User currently offlineYOW From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 20, posted (7 years 6 months 3 weeks 5 days 23 hours ago) and read 5119 times:

Quoting Scouseflyer (Reply 3):
Is it my imagination or does it look like a 737 classic?

Looks a lot like an A318, minus the Airbus winglets & overwing exit.


User currently offlineTangowhisky From United States of America, joined Jun 2006, 903 posts, RR: 7
Reply 21, posted (7 years 6 months 3 weeks 5 days 23 hours ago) and read 5100 times:

Quoting A342 (Reply 18):
Quoting Tangowhisky (Reply 13):
a 5 abreast jet like the Superjet as the 90-140 seat market

To set this straight: The SSJ family covers the 60-110 seat range. It may have 5-abreast, but the capacity of the SSJ100 isn't higher than the capacity of the E190.

True, but a 5 abreast plane can easily be stretched to 140 or 150 seats - think of DC-9 to MD-80.



Only the paranoid survive
User currently offlineAirbuseric From Netherlands, joined Jan 2005, 4250 posts, RR: 51
Reply 22, posted (7 years 6 months 3 weeks 5 days 22 hours ago) and read 5047 times:

Quoting OwlEye (Reply 12):
Quoting Airbuseric (Reply 10):
KL might be interested in this aircraft too as replacement for the F100/F70. These Sukhoi's may be the right aircraft to replace the Fokkers in Europe...

Is this wishful thinking or a serious matter? Isn't Airbus or Embraer more favorite to KLM or KLM Cityhopper? Would it be the price of the SSJ that might it make attractive to AF/KL?

No wishful thinking here as I've heard from internal KL sources that they currently investigate about the future replacement on their F70/100 and even F50. Embraer already showed their Emb190 to KL a few months back.

Or course it may be doubtful that KL may order the Sukhoi aircraft, but this complete series may be quite interesting because what's said before, it covers a whole range of seats, and the various types may be good for replacement of all Fokkers (50/70/100), but the basic type in the fleet will remain the same (all Sukhoi SSJ).

Of course also Bombardier's CRJ's (700/900 and Dash 400Q) are considered, the Embraers too. KL is just waiting till 2007 when 'Rekkof' (kind of new Fokker) will give it a go with the production of new aircraft, in which they are very interested.



"The whole world steps aside for the man who knows where he is going"
User currently offlineKukkudrill From Malta, joined Dec 2004, 1123 posts, RR: 5
Reply 23, posted (7 years 6 months 3 weeks 5 days 22 hours ago) and read 5024 times:

Quoting Airbuseric (Reply 22):
KL is just waiting till 2007 when 'Rekkof' (kind of new Fokker) will give it a go with the production of new aircraft

I take it you're referring to the possibility of Rekkof restarting Fokker 70/100 production. Is it now definite? I haven't been following developments.



Make the most of the available light ... a lesson of photography that applies to life
User currently offlineAirbuseric From Netherlands, joined Jan 2005, 4250 posts, RR: 51
Reply 24, posted (7 years 6 months 3 weeks 5 days 21 hours ago) and read 4992 times:

Quoting Kukkudrill (Reply 23):
take it you're referring to the possibility of Rekkof restarting Fokker 70/100 production. Is it now definite? I haven't been following developments.

It has been mentioned somewhere that KL will wait for Rekkof until somewhere early 2007 at last, if they go ahead with the project or not. If not, KL will decide for another programm, a decision which is generally expected through 2007.



"The whole world steps aside for the man who knows where he is going"
25 Mrocktor : That is for sure. On the other hand labor costs here are between 1/2 and 1/3 of Boeing's. Embraer fought BBD pretty well with lower technology and lo
26 Owleye : Okay, thank you for the inside info. It's good that KLM is looking around for the best suitable aircraft. It make sense indeed that the SSJ still cou
27 Kukkudrill : Eh?
28 Planemaker : there ever would be a retreat to the sub 90-pax market, it would not be for quite a while. If, as Boeing says, Y1 EIS is not till 2014 or 15, it is g
29 Cobra27 : No, It doesn't, my american friend (am sure you will find it hard to understand). It only needs more orders to be profitable.
30 Kukkudrill : Thanks for the clarification. I wasn't meaning to start any debates: I just asked whether there had been any developments.
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