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A380 Will Crush Rivals: Predicts Expert II  
User currently offlineANCFlyer From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Posted (7 years 6 months 3 weeks 3 days 5 hours ago) and read 13826 times:

Continuing from this thread:

A380 Will Crush Rivals, Predicts Expert (by BoomBoom Dec 30 2006 in Civil Aviation)

[Edited 2007-01-01 17:18:49]

186 replies: All unread, showing first 25:
 
User currently offlineZvezda From Lithuania, joined Aug 2004, 10511 posts, RR: 64
Reply 1, posted (7 years 6 months 3 weeks 3 days 5 hours ago) and read 13818 times:

The only crushing going on is in the net sales during the time both have been available: 747-8 SuperJumbo 74, WhaleJet 7.

User currently offlineStitch From United States of America, joined Jul 2005, 30537 posts, RR: 84
Reply 2, posted (7 years 6 months 3 weeks 3 days 5 hours ago) and read 13816 times:
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Quoting JakTrax:
Something to bear in mind here: A380 = flying; 748i = drawing board. I don't know for sure but I reckon the 748i is simply Boeing's attempt to get a slice of the limelight which the A380 has already taken.

Sure it is. What's wrong with that? After all, the A380 was Airbus' attempt to get a slice of the limelight which the 747 had already taken.

Quoting JakTrax:
So many here claim that the A380 fills 'a very small niche market'. In which case, everybody's happy with their A380s (which will still be delivered ahead of 748is) and the market for the 748i is now pretty dry. If it's such a small niche then the A380 has surely stolen it?

The crux of the argument is, however, was it worth the time and money Airbus invested to bring the plane to market to address that niche? Airbus has already spent something like $16 billion dollars on the program. The delays will shift over $6 billion in revenues from 2006 to 2010. By Airbus' own statements, something like one-third to one-half of the A388s they have sold will cost Airbus more money to build and deliver then what they will sell them for.

And on top of that, Boeing has just launched a new aircraft program that is a dagger aimed at the heart of one of their widebody programs - the A330 family - as well as having already plunged a dagger (the 777) into the heart of their other program - the A340. So now Airbus needs to spend another 11 figures to respond to those threats. Their own focus on the A388 program has delayed that response for years, and now the A388 revenue deferrals is delaying that even more, as they need to secure billions over the next few years as they wait for the balance of A388 revenues to start arriving in 2010.

On the flip side, Boeing is looking at about $1 billion to bring the 747-8I and 747-8F to market. They already have over 55 orders for both types and while the 748I models probably went out the door around 35-40% off of list, the 748F models probably didn't.

Note - The $4 billion figure bandied about for the 747-8 program has to also include the "sunk costs" Boeing has already spent over the past decade on the 745 and 746 programs, as well as the monies it has spent trying to respond to the A388 with the 747-X and 747-ADV programs.

Quoting JakTrax:
Well that just goes to show that, despite no new airlines jumping on board, existing committed customers still have faith. Some of the world's most consistently profitable carriers, I might add...

Yes, but the three largest operators of the A388 are extremely dependent on the traffic passing through their respective hubs (SIN for SQ, SYD for QF, and DXB for EK) so they truly require the A388 for capacity/traffic reasons.

So, are QF's, SQ's and EK's traffic patterns the rule, or are they an exception to it? If the former, things look bright for the A388 program. If the latter... And note that QF has become the largest operator of the 787 (65 orders plus 50 options) so it looks like they intend to use the A388 on only a few core "trunk routes" to feed SYD and then run 787s everywhere else.


User currently offlineStitch From United States of America, joined Jul 2005, 30537 posts, RR: 84
Reply 3, posted (7 years 6 months 3 weeks 3 days 5 hours ago) and read 13796 times:
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Quoting Zvezda:
There are 74 signed 747-8 orders.

My mistake. I forgot that Boeing recorded 18 747-8F sales in 2005. I was only looking at the 2006 numbers for the 747 family (67) and deducting the 12 744F/744ERFs sold in 2006.

Quoting Zvezda:
The cost of the 747-8 program is between $1B and $2B.

Still a good deal less then the A380-800 program and with $12 billion or more in orders, looking to be a given for positive program ROI.


User currently offlineZvezda From Lithuania, joined Aug 2004, 10511 posts, RR: 64
Reply 4, posted (7 years 6 months 3 weeks 3 days 5 hours ago) and read 13751 times:

Quoting Stitch (Reply 3):
Still a good deal less then the A380-800 program and with $12 billion or more in orders, looking to be a given for positive program ROI.

Yes, in part because of the future value of money, the 747-8 SuperJumbo program probably already has enough orders to achieve the 19% RoI for which the WhaleJet needs at least 1000 orders.


User currently offlineIkramerica From United States of America, joined May 2005, 21472 posts, RR: 60
Reply 5, posted (7 years 6 months 3 weeks 3 days 5 hours ago) and read 13708 times:

Quoting NAV20:
Agreed, comes back to semantics, Baroque. Somehow feel that if the return in 2010 was expected to be 'substantial,' the Airbus people would have said so - instead of only using that word in relation to income 'beyond 2010'.........

While i don't agree with all your numbers, you are dead on on this part.

Some still want to believe that if Airbus says "in 2010" they mean January. History has NOT demonstrated this from Airbus or most other companies. If they meant Q1 2010, they'd have said Q1 2010. But they said they will begin to show profit in 2010, and that means, in corporate talk, by the end of year.

That means that up until the end of 2010 (which month? not clear, but likely Q4), each A380 delivered will put the program further into debt. From that point on, each delivery will eat away at the debt, up until about 420 frames, where the entire program will go into the black, should they reach that point without further investment...



Of all the things to worry about... the Wookie has no pants.
User currently offlineIkramerica From United States of America, joined May 2005, 21472 posts, RR: 60
Reply 6, posted (7 years 6 months 3 weeks 3 days 5 hours ago) and read 13687 times:

Quoting Zvezda (Reply 4):
Yes, in part because of the future value of money, the 747-8 SuperJumbo program probably already has enough orders to achieve the 19% RoI for which the WhaleJet needs at least 1000 orders.

If you believe Airbus's numbers, it's more like 900.



Of all the things to worry about... the Wookie has no pants.
User currently offlineZvezda From Lithuania, joined Aug 2004, 10511 posts, RR: 64
Reply 7, posted (7 years 6 months 3 weeks 3 days 4 hours ago) and read 13653 times:

Quoting Ikramerica (Reply 6):
If you believe Airbus's numbers, it's more like 900.

I think the Airbus numbers are optimistic with regard to both the exchange rate and the future sales prices. Whether the number is 900 or 1000, anything less would mean it was a mistake to launch the program.


User currently offlineIkramerica From United States of America, joined May 2005, 21472 posts, RR: 60
Reply 8, posted (7 years 6 months 3 weeks 3 days 4 hours ago) and read 13626 times:

Quoting Zvezda (Reply 8):
Whether the number is 900 or 1000, anything less would mean it was a mistake to launch the program.

I'm just using the very simplistic way Airbus reached 750. 750-420=330. (330/13)x19=900 frames. That's the overly simple Airbus used to reach 750, which is why I said "if you believe" their numbers. Frankly, I don't.

From a purely financial POV, yes, and that's what people don't get. Airbus, at this point, can sell 500, which would be an amazing number for such a large plane, and yet it wouldn't have made financial sense. It depends on what "crush" means. If Airbus sells 500 A380s and Boeing sells 150 748i, that is a crushing, yet Boeing comes out ahead! And it's already clear Airbus has a very, very long road ahead to pick up any F orders whatsoever...



Of all the things to worry about... the Wookie has no pants.
User currently offlineSEPilot From United States of America, joined Dec 2006, 6817 posts, RR: 46
Reply 9, posted (7 years 6 months 3 weeks 3 days 4 hours ago) and read 13578 times:

There is another factor in this debate that has not received enough attention. My understanding is that the A380 will not fit in most existing gates at most airports, while the 748 will. If the A380 was catching on like the 747 did originally the airports would be rushing to accommodate it. Since response to the A380 has been tepid at best I do not believe many airports will invest the money necessary to accommodate it, which will limit it to relatively few routes, which will in turn diminish its appeal even further. There is a sort of critical mass involved in the introduction of anything that exceeds previously accepted limits, and from what I can see the A380 has not acheived that. But it is not guaranteed that it won't; the 747 after an initial flurry of orders languished in the early 70's, but then took off and has been impressively successful. The A380 may do the same but my guess is that it will not, because if it doesn't happen now it will be rendered obsolete by the next generation of composite planes that will be more economical even if not as large. It is unfortunate for Airbus that it built this bird at the tail end of the aluminum plane's life cycle; after all, making money is the object of any business and if they can do it better with a smaller plane then they will.


The problem with making things foolproof is that fools are so doggone ingenious...Dan Keebler
User currently offlineBoomBoom From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 10, posted (7 years 6 months 3 weeks 3 days 4 hours ago) and read 13555 times:

Quote:
Quoting Zvezda (Reply 158):
Sales have been rather dismal.



Quote:
Quoting Manni (Reply 163)
Given the 'blackday' predictions from many resident 'experts' on here, people with 'sources', people working for A380 customer airlines etc., a net gain of 7 orders, despite all the negativity reported regarding the A38O program, for 2006 could be considered a better than expected result for those people. Not?

Not. A net gain of seven is dismal.

I guess anything could be considered "a better than expected result"
if you set the bar low enough.


User currently offlineDazeflight From Germany, joined Jun 1999, 580 posts, RR: 2
Reply 11, posted (7 years 6 months 3 weeks 3 days 4 hours ago) and read 13522 times:

Quoting Zvezda (Reply 1):
The only crushing going on is in the net sales during the time both have been available: 747-8 SuperJumbo 74, WhaleJet 7.

Being the first one to answer in this thread and repeating your message from thread 1 again only shows that you really have a sick & obsessive relationship to the whalejet.

So I'm going to repeat my message, too: The net sales during the time both have been available in the passenger segement, the only segement where both kind of compete with each other, is 20 for the 747-8 vs. 17 for the A380. Until 1 month ago it was 0 vs. 17. That only shows the value of your repeated figures atm: nihil, nothing, zero.


User currently offlineIkramerica From United States of America, joined May 2005, 21472 posts, RR: 60
Reply 12, posted (7 years 6 months 3 weeks 3 days 4 hours ago) and read 13521 times:

Quoting SEPilot (Reply 11):
My understanding is that the A380 will not fit in most existing gates at most airports, while the 748 will.

The 748i doesn't quite fit. It will require airports to redraw (overlay) some gates with a special red or yellow outline for the wider 748i, and then the gate next to it with a special line for 777/787 and smaller. But in a 2 gate space, the 748+777 fit without infringing on the other gates. The jetways need to have about 10 feet of movement to accommodate the shift, but most around the world do.

In contrast, the A380 can also fit in a 747 gate, but to do so, it MUST restrict both gates next to it to 767 or smaller. This is why airports had to build A380 ready gates. They had to redraw the lines completely, or spread out the gates, or put them on the corners of the piers with longer jetways to push them out. Also, the A380 requires a larger lounge area.



Of all the things to worry about... the Wookie has no pants.
User currently offlineLeelaw From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 13, posted (7 years 6 months 3 weeks 3 days 4 hours ago) and read 13481 times:

IIRC, according to the revised breakeven analysis issued by EADS in October which increased "breakeven outlook" to 420 units from 270, also reported that:


Quote:
With starting reference 2007 notional A380 breakeven is 150 a/c

http://www.eads.com/xml/content/OF00000000400004/0/74/41485740.pdf

Doesn't this mean that Airbus expects to be even on production costs only after 150 deliveries?


User currently offlineT773ER From United States of America, joined Dec 2006, 277 posts, RR: 0
Reply 14, posted (7 years 6 months 3 weeks 3 days 4 hours ago) and read 13445 times:

Quoting RJ111 (Reply 16):
As for the articlue, clearly just some hyperbole. No need to take it so seriously, i'm suprised it managed to notch up two threads.

The first thing I thought of when I read it was that it was fabricated by Airbus.



"Fixed fortifications are monuments to the stupidity of man."
User currently offlineZeke From Hong Kong, joined Dec 2006, 8861 posts, RR: 75
Reply 15, posted (7 years 6 months 3 weeks 3 days 4 hours ago) and read 13419 times:

Quoting Stitch (Reply 2):
QF has become the largest operator of the 787 (65 orders plus 50 options) so it looks like they intend to use the A388 on only a few core "trunk routes" to feed SYD and then run 787s everywhere else.

It is still possible that not a single 787 will end up in QF colors.

This has been used as a big stick in industrial negotiations for some time. JQ not QF will be the initial operator, with the JQ 330s going back to QF when the 787s arrive.

QF buys aircraft for the QF group, not just to fly in QF colors. The latest pilot agreement for JQ was to include the 380 as well.



We are addicted to our thoughts. We cannot change anything if we cannot change our thinking – Santosh Kalwar
User currently offlineIkramerica From United States of America, joined May 2005, 21472 posts, RR: 60
Reply 16, posted (7 years 6 months 3 weeks 3 days 4 hours ago) and read 13402 times:

Quoting Leelaw (Reply 18):
Doesn't this mean that Airbus expects to be even on production costs only after 150 deliveries?

Yes. Through about the 1st 75, Airbus is going deeper into debt with each delivery, as with penalties and cost overruns, it's costing them more to make them then they get from delivering them. From 75-150, they are getting back to the point where they are pulling themselves out of that extra debt. 150-420 are the deliveries where they will be recouping the investment costs. 420-750 are the units where Airbus says there is a positive ROI, with 750 reaching 13%. 900 would be the point they would reach their original projected 19% ROI. This assumes they can sell 750 388 and 380F without making any changes that cost any more money.



Of all the things to worry about... the Wookie has no pants.
User currently offlineStitch From United States of America, joined Jul 2005, 30537 posts, RR: 84
Reply 17, posted (7 years 6 months 3 weeks 3 days 4 hours ago) and read 13389 times:
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Quoting SEPilot (Reply 11):
My understanding is that the A380 will not fit in most existing gates at most airports, while the 748 will.

As Ikramerica noted in Reply 15, the 748I better fits into existing gates then an A388 does, but both require some re-work. Where the 748I has an advantage is it is easier to board and disembark with two jetways on the main deck then the A388 would be (I am assuming current dual-jetways will work on an A388).

Quoting Dazeflight (Reply 14):
So I'm going to repeat my message, too: The net sales during the time both have been available in the passenger segment, the only segment where both kind of compete with each other, is 20 for the 747-8 vs. 17 for the A380. Until 1 month ago it was 0 vs. 17.

The 748I recorded four sales in 2006 prior to LH's order, which makes the actual total 24 to 17 for the year and 4 to 17 for the year prior to December.

Also, the 744 "competed" with the A388 and it recorded 28 sales, so just to complete the statistics, the program-to-date orders are 156 for the A380 family and 52 for the 747 family.


User currently offlineThrust From United States of America, joined Sep 2003, 2688 posts, RR: 10
Reply 18, posted (7 years 6 months 3 weeks 2 days 20 hours ago) and read 12768 times:

I have my doubts about how expert this theory really is. I will give that the A380 is certainly a formidable opponent on the routes it is intended for...but it can only crush its rivals to a point...if indeed it can crush them at all. IT is limited on the routes it can serve and therefore is not going to have the big impact the 747 had when it was introduced. Also...as someone pointed out earlier, many airports seem reluctant to expand their gates to accomodate the A380. I see a more Boeing dominated future around the world than an Airbus dominated one. THe 787 is the aircraft that is going to have the biggest impact on the world. The A380's reign as the new dominant jumbo is already beginning to give way...Boeing is clearly taking some of the wheel here and I expect this to continue.


Fly one thing; Fly it well
User currently offlinePM From Germany, joined Feb 2005, 6863 posts, RR: 63
Reply 19, posted (7 years 6 months 3 weeks 2 days 20 hours ago) and read 12623 times:

The original thread included the word "expert". This one refers to "experts". Malcolm English edits a magazine that is in its own way admirable but I'd hardly call him an "expert". He's an aviation enthusiast much like those of us who post on A.Net. So from one "expert" (who isn't) we've gone to "experts". This kind of carelessness merely serves to confuse and provoke mischievous threads like this one.

User currently offlineBandA From United States of America, joined Aug 2004, 338 posts, RR: 0
Reply 20, posted (7 years 6 months 3 weeks 2 days 19 hours ago) and read 12336 times:

It IS more likely for A380 to crush its rival 747 than the 747 crushing an A380.

If you look at the 380 it is a lot larger and most likely heavier, so if they place the new A380 on top of the old, rusty and brittle 747 it might just crush it... how badly? not sure... cant wait to see it happen though.



"They [Terrorists] never stop thinking about new ways to harm our country and our people, and neither do we." - GWB
User currently offlineTPASXM787 From United States of America, joined Mar 2005, 1730 posts, RR: 20
Reply 21, posted (7 years 6 months 3 weeks 2 days 19 hours ago) and read 12216 times:

Quoting BandA (Reply 20):
It IS more likely for A380 to crush its rival 747 than the 747 crushing an A380.

If you look at the 380 it is a lot larger and most likely heavier, so if they place the new A380 on top of the old, rusty and brittle 747 it might just crush it... how badly? not sure... cant wait to see it happen though.

thanks, you really added a lot here.

i haven't touched this thread with a 10 foot pole, but to say the A380 will crush its rival(s) really isn't saying a lot when it's rival is one plane? That one plane based on a 40 yeard old design outsold the A380 in 2006...overall the A380 obviously has more orders than the 748 but damn...I would have thought the 380 would have pulled more orders since the initial run.



This is the Last Stop.
User currently offlineJayinKitsap From United States of America, joined Nov 2005, 769 posts, RR: 1
Reply 22, posted (7 years 6 months 3 weeks 2 days 19 hours ago) and read 12165 times:

Airbus needs to have a crushing 380 sales and production team. Yes production of the first 40 will take the next 3 years, but by then the rate will be 40 per year (Airbus indicates 48). So by the time the line is running at 40 per year, the 380 needs to get 40 orders per year for the next 10 to 20 years. In the last 2 years there hasn't been a net 40 orders.

With luck in the next 1 to 2 years most of the 380 options could be exercised, I recall that is about 80 planes. Then new sales need to commence.

Best wishes for Airbus in the New Year getting those stocking filled.


User currently offlineFridgmus From United States of America, joined Oct 2006, 1442 posts, RR: 11
Reply 23, posted (7 years 6 months 3 weeks 2 days 18 hours ago) and read 11944 times:
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Do any of you think that the A380 and the B748 can co-exist in different markets/niches that overlap each other? (I hope that makes sense!).

Thanks,

Marc



The Lockheed Super Constellation, the REAL Queen of the Skies!
User currently offlinePM From Germany, joined Feb 2005, 6863 posts, RR: 63
Reply 24, posted (7 years 6 months 3 weeks 2 days 18 hours ago) and read 11876 times:

I'm really not sure how relevant it is but a brief look at the sales history of the 747 may be informative.

It was launched in 1966 with 83 orders from 11 airlines.
In 1967 it gained 43 more orders including 9 new customers.
In 1968 the number was down to 22 and 5 new customers.
In 1969 it was 30 with just one new customer.
In 1970 - 20 orders and 3 new customers.
In 1971 - 7 orders and no new customers.
In 1972 - 18 orders and 4 new customers.
In 1973 - 29 orders and 2 new customers.
In 1974 - 29 orders and 2 new customers.
In 1975 - 20 orders and 2 new customers.

So, in ten years Boeing sold 301 747s to 39 customers. That's effectively 30 a year and an average of 8 planes per airline.

Its two best years for sales were the first two (42% of the 10-year total) and it added half of its airline customers during these two years. From 1969 to 1975 Boeing added just two new customers a year for seven years.

Sales were poorest just as it was coming into service (also, a little late).

What does this tell us about the A380? Probably not much. Sales were bound to be lower in the 1960s and 70s than today. On the other hand, the 747 really had no serious competition. Still, it is interesting to see the early progress of the 747 being steady rather than spectacular. Indeed, the real success story for the 747 was the -400 (in its various incarnations) which didn't go on sale till almost twenty years later. Boeing sold 698 of these from October 1985 to July this year.

Does that suggest that later, improved versions of the A380 will sell better? And that Airbus will make its money on a version launched in 2020?! Oops!


25 PM : Apparently Lufthansa think so.
26 Halls120 : Airbus needs to get the wiring untangled, get their production certificate, and get some A380's in revenue service. Once that happens, additional ord
27 Atmx2000 : I suspect that they will need to launch an update to get the program to profitability. I expect sales to weaken at 10-12 yrs past original EIS. At th
28 Grantcv : So in order to make these numbers, Airbus would have to sell 900 of the current A388/A388F variants. (Additional investments on new variants aren't f
29 Leelaw : IIRC, after SQ and QF formally exercised some of their options in late-2006, and FX having cancelled its firm order and options altogether, outstandi
30 WingedMigrator : Not really. The hypothetical accounting scenario assumes a single variant, but obviously the A380-800 will be improved upon during its lifetime, perh
31 GBan : Oh, come on. This is certainly not possibe on A.Net. The fact that Airbus and Boeing share your view in both their market forecasts definitely does n
32 Ikramerica : Absolutely, but neither will sell more than 500 F+pax, in my estimation. The 748 will sell 4 to 1 freighters, and the 380 will sell mostly pax versio
33 Zvezda : Yes, though the 747-400 still had the advantage of better range than anything else flying, which was the main reason most customers bought it. The Wh
34 Post contains links GBan : Actually if you take the time to have a look at Lufthansa's press release you'll see that the LH case is quite clear: http://konzern.lufthansa.com/en
35 Zvezda : Not at all. Why do people put so much faith in marketing spin? LH aren't going to write: "We're buying a different VLA this time because we can't mak
36 Planemaker : And let us not forget that the 747 had competition from the "right sized" DC-10 & L1011 (around 600 frames delivered). However, if your assumption ab
37 Zvezda : I was not assuming consolidation. In ~10 years no one will be ordering new-build aluminium airliners. They won't be even remotely competitive with CF
38 Adria : The A340 and MD-11 were already on the market (not in service but airlines knew what MD and Airbus are planning) so this "range advantage" is not the
39 Post contains images Zvezda : Are you claiming that the A340-200/300 and the MD-11 match the range of the 747-400? During the time both have been on sale (slightly more than a yea
40 Post contains images Planemaker : Ah... but until CFRP VLA's EIS they will be competitive. And the Whale and the Jumbo will still be available in ~10 years.
41 Zvezda : I disagree. I don't think either aluminium VLA will be competitive with the A350-1000 or 787-11. If I turn out to be wrong on that point, orders for
42 Post contains images Astuteman : As always WM, you write everything that needs to be said in a 200+ post thread in two small sentences. It's a privilege to have you on my RU list Do
43 Planemaker : Re. the A350-1000 or 787-11... even with superior CASM they will not meet the capacity requirements of markets that will require VLAs. Re. CFRP VLA's
44 Zvezda : Applying Occam's Razor, yes, that is the obvious reason.
45 Stitch : Yup. The next five to ten years will probably be the most critical for each plane to garner as many orders as it can as the "wonder twins" - the 787
46 Zvezda : Those already sold would saturate that tiny niche.
47 Leelaw : SQ are not purchasing the A330s, they're leasing them directly from Airbus on what appear to be extraordinary terms indeed, at least vis-a-vis the du
48 Planemaker : However, not if there is the consolidation that we agree could happen. In that case, the 650 deliveries that Boeing forecasts through 2025 could quit
49 Zvezda : What agreement? I don't see any trend toward a reduction in the number of carriers.
50 Flying-Tiger : Guess this is a situation where you both are correct. SQ is not directly ordering these A330-300s, however these 19 A330-300 will be specifically man
51 Stitch : Yeah. Yeah. But my point still stands that SQ would not take these planes unless they needed them. And if building and leasing those birds to SQ was
52 Zvezda : I forgot to count the four VIP sales, so the correct count is: 747-8 SuperJumbo 78, WhaleJet 7.
53 Post contains images Baroque : Interesting possibilities spring from that little gem Zeke! Fascinating listing PM, it will be interesting to look back on similar data for the A380.
54 Leelaw : They're needed because the A350 won't be available until at least 2013. BTW, if the 748I isn't "cutting-edge" enough for Mr. Seng's consideration, it
55 Planemaker : That is not what you said in the VLJ thread... Not to take anything away from the 787 but it is not revolutionary but evolutionary, and only in scale
56 Zvezda : Legacy carriers are not the only carriers. If trends continue, the number of new entrants over the period under discussion (about 6 years) would more
57 Post contains images Planemaker : As has been shown by "trends", new entrants have a very short life-span. Furthermore, the new entrants have been overwhelmingly regional LCCs flying
58 Adria : Sure sure, and the A320 family outsold the 777 family this year...comparing two different aircraft for two different markets is a big mistake (in cas
59 Post contains images Dougloid : The fact that you responded in kind suggests that you too have a sick and obsessive relationship to the whalejet.
60 Dougloid : True. The relevant question to any investor would be how much it's going to cost to clean up the mess. And it's more like spilled used motor oil...th
61 USAF336TFS : Of course all this "crushing" of A380 sales, assumes that UPS will not cancel it's orders. I for one, would not be shocked if they did.
62 Zvezda : Of course I can. At the end of the day, a sale is a sale. It makes little difference to the Boeing or EADS shareholders whether the aircraft carries
63 Stitch : My original post was deleted due to part of it referencing a now-deleted post in this thread, but Leelaw's post (#54) remains, so I am re-posting just
64 Zvezda : It's only for the former reason, not the latter. SQ have already taken delivery of 9V-SWG and I understand that they now have all the 777-300ERs that
65 Post contains images TeamAmerica : I'm guessing that you are not easily impressed. Application of a new material and new method of fabricating large fuselages is a milestone in aviatio
66 Zvezda : The change from wood and fabric construction to aluminium construction wasn't a big deal either, right?
67 Post contains images Planemaker : FYI, the Premier and Horizon are production aircraft not experimental. No, the 747 and the Concorde are indeed unique. Even a causual observer can se
68 TeamAmerica : Perhaps you're considering the shape more than the substance. The A350 and B787 are indeed conventional in appearance, but there's so much more to it
69 Post contains images Planemaker : No, I wasn't. However, the shape does reflect the "revolutionary" and not "evolutionary" design of both aircraft in effect and technology. Even more
70 Leelaw : I'm not fathoming how potential losses could run into the billions from this particular transaction, especially if one is sanguine about the prospect
71 Zvezda : I don't expect A330s to have high residual value once A350s are in service.
72 Leelaw : You and I don't, but most Airbusiers do; however, my impression is that Stitch, though not a "dye in the wool" Airbus aficionado, is quite sanguine a
73 Post contains images Astuteman : The danger with razors of course is that the success of the result is in the way that you apply them Quite so. Regards
74 Stitch : My argument is essentially that I do not believe Airbus was "bent over the table" by the airlines when it came to signing these A330 lease deals and
75 AndesSMF : In the history of transportation, there have been many 'revolutionary' machines that so absolutely changed the economics of transportation, that it i
76 Post contains links NAV20 : There is little doubt that unless it can raise extra capital, EADS will be short of cash next year. It has been reported that EADS and its 'sharehold
77 Post contains links and images Keesje : No place & time to be down to earth Tiger, we are talking carefully cultivated market campaigns with true believers here. I did a similar topic a yea
78 Zvezda : I also think the A330 will make a great freighter. However, one doesn't pay a high price for a used passenger liner in order to convert it into a fre
79 AndesSMF : Perhaps, but we won't know that for sure till years from now. The same could easily be said about the A380. Is not necessarily new technology that is
80 MD-90 : That is interesting, but the pax aren't the only load aboard the aircraft. The 748 can carry substantially more revenue cargo than the A380 can. Does
81 Stitch : I'm not familiar with Airbus' Accounts Payable and Accounts Receivable, but when factored in with monies received from A320 and A330 (and A340?) deli
82 NAV20 : The evidence is above, in 'blue and white,' Stitch, that they're aiming to use government guarantees to raise no less the Euro4.0B. I don't think the
83 Baron95 : Unfortunately Airbus has a documented history of doing just that. Searth the WSJ archives for the story behind the Iberia A340 win over the 777. Amon
84 EI321 : Im not sure why you alter the general opinion of the nicknames of these two aircraft. There is only one place where I have seen the A380 refered to a
85 BillReid : Great response. I don't think 250 will be reached. AA, UA and DL will not order the three largest fleets in the world. CO, NW, US, AC will not order.
86 Post contains images PM : Only a trifle...
87 Stitch : I should note that my comment included the $4 billion EADS is trying to get the EU governments to pony up. I agree that EADS can't fund the A350X pro
88 PM : I've never seen it anywhere but here. Personally, I dislike it and I hope it doesn't catch on.
89 MD-90 : Oh I dunno, I think it's been pretty set that the A380 is the "superjumbo." Personally, I think of it as the Whalejet, because "superjumbo" sounds to
90 Post contains links Ikramerica : Is it Zvezda's fault that some people can't do a web search? I've seen the term in the LA Times and other papers myself. But here are some websites,
91 PM : Yet again you demonstrate that you are about the rudest poster on A.Net. Are you incapable of posting without getting nasty? Sheesh. ...which is not
92 Post contains links and images NAV20 : Fair enough, Stitch, didn't realise that you were taking the government-backed E4.0B. into account. I see the availability of that as still being 'in
93 Zvezda : Of course EADS can borrow money in a free market. They can sell bonds. They wouldn't even be junk bonds. There is no reason why they shouldn't have t
94 Post contains images Stitch : I think they could, but not at the rate the EU central banks will extend them. Also, EADS could get it in stages - a billion or two a year - to match
95 Ikramerica : Yes, I do it all the time. People are constantly attacking Zvezda for using a term he likes and claiming he's wrong for using it. Even after repeated
96 Baron95 : I agree with you that they didn't give it away. I do think that they provided attractive leasing term (primarily in how short the lease terms are or
97 Post contains images WingedMigrator : Thanks for the kind words A'man. A couple of billion is a small additional investment, as I stated, relative to the original development cost. To mak
98 Post contains links Joni : I don't think that any US complaints in WTO would prevent the guarantees from going forward, since it hasn't happened before. They'd go forward and i
99 Post contains images NAV20 : No - the WTO's normal approach is to authorise the membership to impose tariffs etc. to block the exports of the offending party. Which, in this case
100 Joni : This is the mode in which any compensation would be collected, but again it would not prevent or delay the loan guarantees from going forward.
101 Post contains images EI321 : Or even damage on landing. Ouch! Not just a saddo post, but rather ironic also Ok, here goes - google hits: ''A380 whale jet'' = 1750 .... and asks D
102 Zvezda : That's just a little bit misleading, as "A380 Whalejet" returns 2570 hits.
103 EI321 : Which google are you using, Im still getting 1760 for that aswell!
104 Zvezda : I think we just found a google bug. Searching only English (and one other language), I get 2570. When I instead try Search the Web (should be all lan
105 SEPilot : Quoting GBan (Reply 34): Might be interesting as well: LH expects 3.5 litres per passenger and 100 kilometres for the 747-8 in LH configuration (see p
106 Joni : Thanks, SEPilot - it's refreshing to see someone with actual information from a party with access to both A380 and 748 data.
107 EI321 : Of course the 748 will be cheaper in that respect, just as any smaller plane would. But its revenue capacity is also considerably less. Its unlikely
108 Dougloid : One factor that will affect the funding picture for the A350 is the 'Force 8' plan or whatever they call it that is supposed to squeeze out several b
109 AndesSMF : There was no attempt to give an analogy to the 787 or A380. All I am trying to show is that 'game changing' sometimes occurs without people realizing
110 Ikramerica : I like it. Sounds very Euro. Who said anything about people not calling it the SuperJumbo? I said it's not an industry standard term (it's not) and t
111 Stitch : The site that GBan referenced in Reply 34 shows a 555-seat configuration and therefore, I can only assume that 3.3l per passenger statement is for a p
112 Zvezda : Excuse me??? The problem I have with Airbus unofficially calling their aircraft Superjumbo is exactly the same problem I would have with Pepsi callin
113 Ikramerica : Well, reading through some of those "Boeing SuperJumbo" hits on Google makes it crystal clear that SuperJumbo, at this point, is an industry term tha
114 EI321 : Not really a great example, cause 'Coke' is a registered TM. As far as Im aware, the media of the day penned the term 'Jumbo' to describe the 747, ju
115 Zvezda : That's a point. Except that I heard senior Airbus management use the term in 1998.
116 Dougloid : Yep..."superjumbo" is along the lines of saying "BigBigReallyBig" Pepsi has always had an inferiority complex, which is logical enough....I mean when
117 Ikramerica : In the mid-90s, the press used the term "SuperJumbo" to describe ALL planes to succeed the 747, including the 747-500/600, the A3XX and the MD12. I've
118 Post contains images PM : @EI321 Apparently, you and I were "yelling at Zvezda". Earlier this week Zvezda and I exchanged cordial personal e-mails. Perhaps you did too. I real
119 SEPilot : Why not call the A380 Burt and the 748 Ernie?
120 Post contains images PM : Care to enlighten those of us who haven't a clue what you're talking about?
121 Post contains images Yellowstone : It's a reference to Sesame Street, a popular children's TV show here in the US on public broadcasting. Although seeing as how Bert was the taller, sk
122 Ikramerica : Wow, isn't overreacting fun? I said you were "yelling" only because you were claiming my non-nasty post was "nasty." Now you know how I felt when I r
123 MD-90 : I think you missed the point. The A380 has an advantage in fuel burn on a per passenger basis, which makes sense, but since cargo space is necessaril
124 Post contains images PM : I'll have to take your word for that. It's something I try not to do. In which case, and in an attempt to bring this silly exchange to an end, I apol
125 Joni : Ok, now I do see your point. However I don't see why cargo and passenger capacity should be mixed up like this. The A380 has more passenger capacity,
126 Zvezda : Your suggestion that passengers make more profit than cargo for passenger airlines is generally false on a tonne/mile basis. A tonne of cargo general
127 GBan : Regarding my previous post: Do you think Lufthansa is dreaming or do you think they are too stupid to do the math?
128 Zvezda : My guess is that these numbers were published by a LH marketing department which took them from Airbus and Boeing at face value without checking with
129 NAV20 : Both aeroplanes have the same range - 8,000nms. The manufacturers' claimed seat capacities in 3-class configuration are A380 - 555, 748 - 467. The A38
130 Post contains images Keesje : So the capasity difference between the 747-8i and A388 will be more like 50 seats (10%), and we better base efficiency comparisons on that.. Way to g
131 Zvezda : Your logic is correct, however, I don't believe LH will put 430 seats in a 747-8. 400 seems more realistic to me. If so, the fuel capacity per passen
132 Zeke : Wolfgang Mayrhuber from LH was very clear. 747-8i is 3.5 litres to fly one passenger 100 kilometres, 400 seats in the Lufthansa configuration. A380 i
133 Joni : Based on an old Usenet discussion about this I contacted Finnair to inquire, and they said that passengers are much preferred. According to Lufthansa
134 Zeke : Depends on the passenger, we will offload freight for pax, and will will offload staff/industry passengers for freight.
135 NAV20 : Don't understand that, Zeke? Are you saying that Lufthansa plans to carry up to 40 FEWER passengers on a 748 compared to a 744?
136 Post contains images Astuteman : Perhaps, but not necessarily as far fetched as you think.... Won't dispute that, at all . However, it's interesting to note that the MTOW difference
137 Zvezda : Actually, MTOW is the weight at the beginning of the day. At the end of the day, weight should be below MLW. For sake of argument, let's assume the S
138 Post contains images Astuteman : Sounds like a conversation with Lightsaber would be quite valuable. The SFC of the GP7000 is for certain within 4% of the GEnx. Whatever numbers you'
139 Post contains images Zvezda : Agreed. I'll cede to anything on SFC that Lightsaber and Widebodyphotog can agree to. The updates to the 747 should have taken it just a bit beyond t
140 Zeke : LH state their 744 has 390 seats, Wolfgang Mayrhuber from LH said their the LH configuration on the 747-8i is 400 seats, an additional 10 seats over
141 Post contains images Stitch : If LH is going with 555 seats in their A388s, does that mean they will be using their old Business Class seating with 48" pitch? Airbus' 555-seat "def
142 Post contains links OldAeroGuy : Hey Zeke, where do you get the A380 OEW as 270t with 555 pax? Even the Airbus website says 276.8t. http://www.airbus.com/en/aircraftfam...lies/a380/a
143 Zvezda : It would be surprised if LH were to install 400 seats in the 787-8 and 555 in the WhaleJet. As Zeke pointed out: Anything is possible. We'll have to
144 Zeke : The same A380 airport planning guide that you have used as a reference before. The Boeing number came form the 747-8i planning guide. Neither are quo
145 Stitch : Well LH's PR statements on the 748I order said they'd put in 500 seats, and the LH A380 site linked up-thread (I believe) said the plane will have 55
146 Post contains images Ikramerica : How dare you say that!!! That's the problem. If LH is putting 555 seats in an A380, it's in a 2 class configuration. And this shows a clear advantage
147 Post contains links OldAeroGuy : The chart in Section 2-1-1, page 2 calls it Operating Empty Weight (OEW) - Typical http://www.content.airbusworld.com/S...a/docs/AC/DATA_CONSULT/AC_A
148 WingedMigrator : Of course, airplanes aren't just a wing. The wing is only part of the drag story (granted, the larger part of it). In cruise, roughly 25% of the drag
149 Post contains links Keesje : You better inform Randy, he is obviously saying strange things.. While acknowledging that the A380’s all-new wing – versus a modified version of
150 Joni : True, as obviously non-revenue pax don't bring any money in but just consume fuel. However with regard to paying passengers, you appear to agree with
151 Post contains images Astuteman : To be fair, you specifically didn't. But to be fair to me, I didn't say you had "Portray" in my sentence is meant to indicate the presenting of a "pi
152 AndesSMF : Also it is more profitable to carry more business and first class passengers than 'backpackers' in cattle class. But good cargo airlines make more pr
153 Zeke : I would suggest that the Airport planning document is using standard rules, the OEW number in the airport planning document has reduced by approximat
154 Post contains images Zvezda : Cool may sell sports cars, but cool doesn't sell airliners. As much as I think the WhaleJet is cool and as much as I look forward to flying on one, I
155 Post contains images Baroque : This implies that the A380 is the moving target usually attributed to Boeing products, rather than the static duck it is usually assumed to be. Gosh,
156 SEPilot : I will pick on this quote as a representative of a common sentiment with which I would like to take issue; and that is a newer design is automaticall
157 Post contains images Astuteman : Feel free to pick, but FWIW I think you picked the wrong target. I'll be the first to support anyone that wants to say that computers on their own do
158 Keesje : Knowing how much time & efforts it took Boeing to push some passenger 747's, the strategic case for not leaving the segment to A, I think there is re
159 SEPilot : I did not mean to pick on you in particular-yours was just the most recent comment, and my issue is with the attitude of the "computer faithful" that
160 Dougloid : The Airport Planning Guide you refer to is sadly out of date with respect to weights of the A380. I believe it was drafted in the late nineties. Oh,
161 Baroque : You did not exactly leave the impression here Astuteman that you had a special set of braille keys for your trusty computer so you could wear dark sh
162 Zvezda : The speed at which economy is optimised is not an indicator of a wing's economics. For example, a wing with a low optimum cruise speed could have ver
163 Dougloid : Hmmmmm...don't know that I like that particular phraseology although some in the Airbus camp may respond to it LOL. Here's a story for you. When I wo
164 Post contains images Astuteman : Took me a while...............LOL Bullseye! My braille abacus has shed some beads right now, so I'm right in the s**t Seriously, I'm a huge fan of CA
165 OldAeroGuy : So you don't think the website is using standard rules? If it wasn't, I'd be very surprised. I think Dougloid is on the right track about the APD OEW
166 TeamAmerica : Interesting. Do you have a source? I'd like to know exactly how it contributes...and did it play a part in the decision on where to place the cockpit
167 Astuteman : The source was a very long FI "special" on the A380 which was issued as a separate magazine last January (I think). I don't recall whether the articl
168 SEPilot : That is the secret in a nutshell. I have worked as a mechanic and a machinist, and when I became an engineer I would talk to the men on the floor, an
169 Dougloid : Glad to see my instincts were right about something LOL. My father was an engineer and I got to watch him and see how he conceptualized things. 'Cour
170 Post contains images Stitch : While that should be quite true for the 747-8I's, as LH is said to have received about 35% off and I imagine the four VIP birds were discounted heavi
171 BoomBoom : No one ever said they did. Oh you know how much the 748 cost to develop? Please share. Given that the 748 outsold the A380 last year by more than 7 t
172 Zvezda : Yes, the 747-8 is widely known to have a development cost of $1 to 2B. Some Airbus fans have tried to claim it's $4B by including already written-off
173 AndesSMF : Here in our office we have always used the input from people on the field. But I know a lot of other engineering firms that won't do this.
174 EI321 : ......Its silly take the situation at face value. How many of the 748F orders were from airlines that dont already operate 744Fs, and will ise the 74
175 BoomBoom : What does this have to do with the ROI? What the sales numbers "speak" is that the 748 will have a much better ROI than the A380.
176 Post contains images Astuteman : Not that it matters much, but I still have issues with this position. Firstly, although I've seen $4Bn quoted as the 748i development cost, I've neve
177 AirSpare : Mine doesn't. There is no line on any directors' org chart from engineering to integration. So we have to ignore management, and try to make a networ
178 Stitch : Well the "analysts" have quoted development costs between $2 billion and $4 billion, so $4 billion isn't a "universal" number. Personally, I have no
179 Post contains images Astuteman : If they get a positive ROI after around 100 sales, and they're very confident of achieving those sales, then spending $4Bn is not only believeable, b
180 Post contains images Stitch : Sure. And if I ever say "no way", remind me of this thread and post. Honestly, I don't know what a wing costs (though I know it's expensive). Perhaps
181 JayinKitsap : Back in the dark ages (1977) I earned my degree in Structural Engineering from the University of Michigan. For a reference on computing power back th
182 Pygmalion : With the advent of large scale CNC machines for machining and shot peen forming etc., the price of rewinging an airplane has gone down steadily. The t
183 Post contains links and images Leelaw : FWIW, as reported in Seattle P-I on November 1, 2006: http://seattlepi.nwsource.com/business/290656_air01.html Too bad the article doesn't report wha
184 NAV20 : About wings, from the beginnings of aviation it has been normal practice to climb to cruising altitude as soon as possible; the principle being that t
185 Post contains images SEPilot : Glad to hear I'm not the only engineer who believes in practical experience. I still remember on my very first design I went a bit overboard with dow
186 OldAeroGuy : Artist's impressions can be deceiving. The evolution of transonic airfoil technology, ie supercritical wings, has been to increase thickness while re
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