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Saudia To Place USD 12 Billion Order  
User currently offlineFlying-Tiger From Germany, joined Aug 1999, 4160 posts, RR: 36
Posted (7 years 6 months 1 week 6 days 3 hours ago) and read 17608 times:

Quote:
SAUDI ARABIAN Airlines is in negotiations with Boeing and Airbus to buy aeroplanes worth up to $12bn (£6.1bn, E9.1bn) in one of the largest deals of its kind.

The purchase of around 60 planes will bolster the current Saudi fleet of 139, helping it to take on rival Dubai-based carrier Emirates. Local sources say Saudi Airlines, which is government owned, is rapidly expanding and needs a variety of new planes.



Quote:
A western source confirmed negotiations were ongoing and that the Saudis would probably split the order between the two Western plane makers, in a similar fashion to recent defence orders.

http://www.thebusinessonline.com/Doc...-4D0D-AE2B-3F1BA994EB4B&doc_page=1

Guys and gals, those will only be widebodies according to this article. Let the guessing begin:

1. either B787 or A350
2. either B777-300ER or A340-600
3. either B747-800 or A380

My guess:
Cat 1: no prediction, open IMO - may come down to availabiliy (30+)
Cat 2: B777-300ER (15)
Cat 3: some B747-800 (6), A380 taking the majority (10-12)


Flown: A319/320/321,A332/3,A380,AT4,AT7,B732/3/4/5/7/8,B742/4,B762/763,B772,CR2,CR7,ER4,E70,E75,F50/70,M11,L15,S20
89 replies: All unread, showing first 25:
 
User currently offlineNYC777 From United States of America, joined Jun 2004, 5731 posts, RR: 48
Reply 1, posted (7 years 6 months 1 week 6 days 3 hours ago) and read 17398 times:

When are they due to announce a decision?


That which does not kill me makes me stronger.
User currently onlineMaverickM11 From United States of America, joined Apr 2000, 17289 posts, RR: 46
Reply 2, posted (7 years 6 months 1 week 6 days 3 hours ago) and read 17319 times:

I don't know why they bother trying to "take on" EK. They will lose that battle every time unless they have some major policy changes.


E pur si muove -Galileo
User currently offlineKaitak From Ireland, joined Aug 1999, 12400 posts, RR: 37
Reply 3, posted (7 years 6 months 1 week 6 days 3 hours ago) and read 17226 times:

There will certainly be a political element to this order; France was pretty cheesed off last time and given the importance to the Saudis of developing and maintaining a good relationship with the EU, an Airbus element to the deal - possibly in the form of A380s - would have to be seen as a strong possibility.

Apart from that, I see more 777s (-300ERs this time) and 787s: -8s initially, but -9s/10s to replace the current fleet of 777-200ERs, which are getting on a bit.


User currently offlineFlying-Tiger From Germany, joined Aug 1999, 4160 posts, RR: 36
Reply 4, posted (7 years 6 months 1 week 6 days 3 hours ago) and read 17227 times:

Quoting MaverickM11 (Reply 2):
I don't know why they bother trying to "take on" EK. They will lose that battle every time unless they have some major policy changes.

I think exactly this part in the article shouldn´t be over-valued. IMO their plan to tripple pilgrim numbers to Saudi-Arabia from the current 3.5 million to over 10 million is the far more influencing factor in this decision. They know that they stand only little chance to attract western and asian travellers, their only real market are muslim travellers. And they go for this market - not the hub-and-spoke market.



Flown: A319/320/321,A332/3,A380,AT4,AT7,B732/3/4/5/7/8,B742/4,B762/763,B772,CR2,CR7,ER4,E70,E75,F50/70,M11,L15,S20
User currently offlineBeech19 From United States of America, joined Jul 2006, 936 posts, RR: 4
Reply 5, posted (7 years 6 months 1 week 6 days 2 hours ago) and read 17069 times:

A couple of tid-bits regarding this.

The order will be split.
My "estimate" would go probably 75% - 25% to Boeing. Ordering 787-8/9, 777-300ER and a some 747-8i. They more than likely will order some large amount of A380's to compete with Emirates.

My "estimates":
25 x 787's: 10 x 788, 15 x 789.
10 x 777-300ER
10 x 748i
15 x A388
--------------
Total of 60

Additionally i suspected something was up a few weeks ago when the Saudi Royal flight 747SP was more or less stored in a paint bay for about 4 days. It was supposedly being "painted" but when it left it had not even been washed, let alone a new coat of paint.

My suspicion was that it was "covert operations" while the Royals did some negotiating at Boeing.



KPAE via KBVY
User currently onlineMaverickM11 From United States of America, joined Apr 2000, 17289 posts, RR: 46
Reply 6, posted (7 years 6 months 1 week 6 days 2 hours ago) and read 16879 times:

Quoting Beech19 (Reply 5):
15 x A388

Do they really need that large an aircraft? And that many? The only thing I can imagine that would fill that are the VFR runs to South Asia. I think their 744 longhauls, like JFK, are not that full.



E pur si muove -Galileo
User currently offlineBeech19 From United States of America, joined Jul 2006, 936 posts, RR: 4
Reply 7, posted (7 years 6 months 1 week 6 days 1 hour ago) and read 16572 times:

Quoting MaverickM11 (Reply 6):
Do they really need that large an aircraft? And that many? The only thing I can imagine that would fill that are the VFR runs to South Asia. I think their 744 longhauls, like JFK, are not that full.

But they A388 wouldn't be for longhauls but for migrations. They are tripling the number of pilgrims. They need large aircraft to do this. The 777/787 will be for the long haul point to point.

We aren't talking about a vacation hotspot (hence why traffic to/from the US is low). This is a business and pilgrim expansion.

The only Airbus they will be ordering is the A388. IMHO... we shall all wait for the announcment. It isn't too far off...



KPAE via KBVY
User currently offlineBehramjee From Canada, joined Aug 2003, 4745 posts, RR: 44
Reply 8, posted (7 years 6 months 1 week 6 days ago) and read 16297 times:

No route of Saudia's requires the capacity of an A 380 year round. The only time when an A 380 would come in handy would be during the HAJJ season thats it.

The capacity and range of the B 748 is perfect to replace its B 741s and B 743s flown currently on high density routes to DAC, CGK, MNL, India and Northern Pakistan i.e. LHE & ISB.

SV has also officially acknowledged that the seating capacity of their B 772ERs is too large for its FRA/CDG and many regional flights, therefore I definitely forsee a B 787-800 order being placed alongwith a B 789 order too to replace its B 772ERs in the future.

As far as Airbus goes, I only forsee an A 319 or A 320 order replacing its ageing MD 83s which Saudia too acknowledged is a hopeless aircraft which didnt meet its requirements.


User currently offlineNYC777 From United States of America, joined Jun 2004, 5731 posts, RR: 48
Reply 9, posted (7 years 6 months 1 week 6 days ago) and read 16244 times:

Quoting Behramjee (Reply 8):
As far as Airbus goes, I only forsee an A 319 or A 320 order replacing its ageing MD 83s which Saudia too acknowledged is a hopeless aircraft which didnt meet its requirements.

Is Saudia also looking to replace narrowbodies. I thought they were only looking to do a widebody order.



That which does not kill me makes me stronger.
User currently offlineFCKC From France, joined Nov 2004, 2348 posts, RR: 4
Reply 10, posted (7 years 6 months 1 week 6 days ago) and read 16151 times:

Last month an SV Captain told me (i had opened a thread about that) , the order will be 787s , 777-300ERs and A350s.
Do not expect an A380 order coming from SV !!!!!!!!
This plane is simply too big for them !!!!!!!!!


User currently offlineNYC777 From United States of America, joined Jun 2004, 5731 posts, RR: 48
Reply 11, posted (7 years 6 months 1 week 6 days ago) and read 16072 times:

Quoting FCKC (Reply 10):
Last month an SV Captain told me (i had opened a thread about that) , the order will be 787s , 777-300ERs and A350s.

I see they're doing what SQ had done and ordering both competing models. The question would be then which version of each model. I think I could see them ordering a few 748Is though but only about 5 to 6.



That which does not kill me makes me stronger.
User currently offlineZvezda From Lithuania, joined Aug 2004, 10511 posts, RR: 64
Reply 12, posted (7 years 6 months 1 week 6 days ago) and read 15979 times:

Quoting Flying-Tiger (Reply 4):
I think exactly this part in the article shouldn´t be over-valued. IMO their plan to tripple pilgrim numbers to Saudi-Arabia from the current 3.5 million to over 10 million is the far more influencing factor in this decision. They know that they stand only little chance to attract western and asian travellers, their only real market are muslim travellers. And they go for this market - not the hub-and-spoke market.

Perhaps the 787-3 would fit this model? Most of the world's muslim population live within 3000nm of Saudi Arabia.


User currently offlineQantas744ER From United States of America, joined Jun 2005, 1286 posts, RR: 4
Reply 13, posted (7 years 6 months 1 week 6 days ago) and read 15963 times:

Based on the ecomomic relations between Saudi Arabia and the USA i think like for the previouse order made by Saudi a couple of years back for the MD90 772 and 744 the American Ambassador "advised" the Saudi's to buy Boeing planes to keep up the great financial relations between the two countries!

The 744's are currently used mostly to the USA and i think they are really the biggest aircraft Saudi would ever need. The a380 would simply be to big because Saudi is no EK etc.

So i put my two cents on a sole Boeing order for mostly 787's and 747-800's.

Cheers Leo



Happiness is V1 in Lagos
User currently offlineStitch From United States of America, joined Jul 2005, 30437 posts, RR: 84
Reply 14, posted (7 years 6 months 1 week 5 days 23 hours ago) and read 15919 times:
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Quoting Flying-Tiger (Reply 4):
I think exactly this part in the article shouldn´t be over-valued. IMO their plan to tripple pilgrim numbers to Saudi-Arabia from the current 3.5 million to over 10 million is the far more influencing factor in this decision. They know that they stand only little chance to attract western and asian travellers, their only real market are muslim travellers. And they go for this market - not the hub-and-spoke market.

Such a strategy would favor the Boeing fleet then, I imagine, as the 747 and 787 are smaller then the A380 and A350 and while the A346 is smaller then the 77W, the 77W is more efficient.

Quoting Beech19 (Reply 7):
But they A388 wouldn't be for longhauls but for migrations. They are tripling the number of pilgrims. They need large aircraft to do this. The 777/787 will be for the long haul point to point.



Quoting Zvezda (Reply 12):
Perhaps the 787-3 would fit this model? Most of the world's muslim population live within 3000nm of Saudi Arabia.

Agreed. An A388, even (heck, especially) in 853-seat capacity, would be wasted the rest of the year and would be unusable in that capacity for any serious long-haul travel. I mean take a page from the Japanese and order some 500-seater 773As...


User currently offlineFCKC From France, joined Nov 2004, 2348 posts, RR: 4
Reply 15, posted (7 years 6 months 1 week 5 days 21 hours ago) and read 15611 times:

I do not see any 747-8Is at SV.Too big !!!!!!

User currently offlineOly720man From United Kingdom, joined May 2004, 6674 posts, RR: 11
Reply 16, posted (7 years 6 months 1 week 5 days 21 hours ago) and read 15608 times:

Quoting Flying-Tiger (Reply 4):
IMO their plan to tripple pilgrim numbers to Saudi-Arabia from the current 3.5 million to over 10 million is the far more influencing factor in this decision

A lot of money to spend on business that only happens in 2 months of the year.



wheat and dairy can screw up your brain
User currently offlineBillReid From Netherlands, joined Jun 2006, 978 posts, RR: 0
Reply 17, posted (7 years 6 months 1 week 5 days 21 hours ago) and read 15472 times:

Quoting FCKC (Reply 10):
Last month an SV Captain told me (i had opened a thread about that) , the order will be 787s , 777-300ERs and A350s.
Do not expect an A380 order coming from SV !!!!!!!!
This plane is simply too big for them !!!!!!!!!

You know that airline Captains know everything and are wrong about 90% of the time..



Some people don't get it. Business is about making MONEY!
User currently offlineFLALEFTY From United States of America, joined Jan 2006, 432 posts, RR: 3
Reply 18, posted (7 years 6 months 1 week 5 days 21 hours ago) and read 15452 times:

Big Saudi egos and big money will equal an order for big planes. I predict they will order A380s and 748I/F models. Look for a couple of the A380s to be outfitted for the Saudi Royal Family.

User currently offlineTommy777 From Norway, joined May 2005, 93 posts, RR: 0
Reply 19, posted (7 years 6 months 1 week 5 days 21 hours ago) and read 15385 times:

I have no faith in them buying 748s.

The orders will be 787s, 777s and A380s


User currently offlineBlueFlyer From United States of America, joined Jan 2006, 3902 posts, RR: 2
Reply 20, posted (7 years 6 months 1 week 5 days 21 hours ago) and read 15377 times:
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Quoting Qantas744ER (Reply 13):
the American Ambassador "advised" the Saudi's to buy Boeing planes to keep up the great financial relations between the two countries!

Small detail, but don't you mean the great military/petroleum relations, because on financial issues, the US doesn't get to give advice to Saudi Arabia. The Kingdom has far more money invested in the US economy than the US does in Saudi Arabia, to the tune of $700 billions (source: CFR) and if the Saudis decided to take their money/investment out, the US would feel the pain...



I've got $h*t to do
User currently offlinePM From Germany, joined Feb 2005, 6849 posts, RR: 63
Reply 21, posted (7 years 6 months 1 week 5 days 20 hours ago) and read 15120 times:

I wonder when they want to start this expansion. If it's soon then might the A330 be under consideration?

User currently offlineRedFlyer From United States of America, joined Feb 2005, 4312 posts, RR: 29
Reply 22, posted (7 years 6 months 1 week 5 days 20 hours ago) and read 15098 times:

Quoting Flying-Tiger (Thread starter):
helping it to take on rival Dubai-based carrier Emirates.



Quoting Flying-Tiger (Thread starter):
Let the guessing begin:

SV will never be able to take on EK. Although I think EK's growth plans are quite a bit on the overly-ambitious side, EK is at least more nimble and commercially (read: profit) motivated.

Quoting Kaitak (Reply 3):
There will certainly be a political element to this order; France was pretty cheesed off last time and given the importance to the Saudis of developing and maintaining a good relationship with the EU, an Airbus element to the deal - possibly in the form of A380s - would have to be seen as a strong possibility.

 checkmark  checkmark 

Quoting Zvezda (Reply 12):
Perhaps the 787-3 would fit this model? Most of the world's muslim population live within 3000nm of Saudi Arabia.

While the 783 would certainly be ideal for the reasons you mention, common sense will probably take a back seat to other considerations when the final order is placed.



I'm not a racist...I hate Biden, too.
User currently onlineUAEflyer From United Arab Emirates, joined Nov 2006, 1015 posts, RR: 0
Reply 23, posted (7 years 6 months 1 week 5 days 18 hours ago) and read 13977 times:

From the military orders i see that most of it come from USA, and the relations between the Royal family of Saudi Arabia and the Bush family is very tight. This good relation between the two families will be invested in this deal, forever the Kingdom and the States are in love (not in Sept 2001) USA buy oil KSA buy commodities.

I have a strong feeling that Saudi will order Boeing if the Europeans didn't interfere.
It is all about politics if this order took place.


User currently offlinePM From Germany, joined Feb 2005, 6849 posts, RR: 63
Reply 24, posted (7 years 6 months 1 week 5 days 18 hours ago) and read 13744 times:

Quoting UAEflyer (Reply 23):
I have a strong feeling that Saudi will order Boeing if the Europeans didn't interfere.

... or order Airbus is the USA didn't interfere? It was widely rumoured at the time that Saudia was going to put RR on their 777s until a phone call from the White House swing it to GE.


25 ERAUgrad02 : I think the 747-8i has a good chance since it last grew to its current size and they could recieve them sooner than if the ordered the a380 since now
26 Dougloid : The Hajj is only one month out of the year, right? Why bother buying capacity that gets used once a year?
27 TP313 : Uh? Indonesia and Malaysia (that are the bigest muslim countries in the world in population terms) are less than 3000nm from Saudi Arabia???[Edited 2
28 Zvezda : Do Indonesia and Malaysia together possess most of the world's muslim population? If they do, then I stand corrected.
29 QXatFAT : I can see Saudi placing orders for many 777-300ERS and possibly throwing in some A350s with most going to the 787-8 and just a few of the 747-8s. Wher
30 Flying-Tiger : Whilst the Hadj is certainly the period when most muslim visitors come to Saudi-Arabia I would expect Saudi-Arabia to try to attract more visitors in
31 Danny : Selecting both makes no sense as A350 would cover any need for 777.
32 UAEflyer : I still have doubt that they will order Airbus, but let assume that they ordered airbus, i think that A350 and A346. They might order A380F but no pas
33 PanHAM : The only A380's going there will be a few for the Royal Flight. Except for that it will be a straight Boeing order, as usual. Why should they order th
34 Post contains images AutoThrust : Agreed, Boeing just offers the better product palette now from availability point. Though i dont rule out they could order some A380. If the 783 woul
35 Glideslope : Or, a nice big Boeing order to stay in Iraq longer? I'll wager it was on Chenney's visit last month. The French may be "cheesed"(love that word), but
36 Post contains images MIAMIx707 : A MUCH BETTER Saudia colorscheme as well? (I hope). Maybe a return to the blue-green? (I wish)! 787s, A350s, 773 and perhaps 748i and/or F? No pax A38
37 Zvezda : No. All four VIP orders for SuperJumbos have been for the 747-8. SV might order Airbus, but it would be A330s or A350s. They have no need for A340s o
38 Bongodog1964 : Why would any non muslim want to visit Saudi Arabia ? The regime isn't exactly what most tourists are looking for (women must be covered, no alcohol,
39 Brilondon : I suspect that SV would go with Boeing mainly because of the relationship they have with the US and only use Airbus as a leveraging tool to get more f
40 B707Stu : The consensus, and I agree is: 1. 787 2. 777 3. A380s The Boeings because of the economic and political realities and the A380s for the prestige and
41 GeorgiaAME : We know this BB/Moderator really gets ticked off when "politics" surmounts aviation. HOWEVER, the big bucked Saudis call the shots, not the EU or the
42 Bongodog1964 : Please would all the posters who say "It will be Boeing because of the Saudi relationship with the US" and "Saudi depends on the US for security, the
43 Stitch : Other than the fact SV will be able to get 77Ws up to a decade earlier then A350-1000s, which would be important if they want to compete against EK "
44 Jfk777 : Saudia will order every new wide body available but not the A380. A350, 787, 777-300ER and 747-8 will make up the order. Saudia doesn't operate a tran
45 JAL : I'm guessing Boeing might be the slight favourite here given the political relations between the US and Saudi Arabia.
46 Post contains links Oly720man : The rather strong Israeli lobby who didn't want the Saudis getting the top of the range US fighters? http://www.time.com/time/magazine/article/0,9171
47 Bongodog1964 : If the Saudis deem the US to be pro Israel, doesn't this play into A's hands ? I think the Saudi's prefer the word commission; it makes it sound as i
48 Cedarjet : Saudia will always buy the least suitable and most underachieving aircraft they can get their hands on. It has nothing to do with what the airline nee
49 CX747 : Saudi ordered the Typhoon because they want to have more than one "national" supplier for military equipment. Henceforth, they ordered from Europe thi
50 AeroPiggot : Yup that is why they brought the Typhoon , rather than the F-15/F-16/F-18/JSF ???
51 Post contains images Scbriml : I don't think the national airline of Saudi Arabia operates any fighter aircraft.
52 Post contains images SV777KiloAlpha : A spokesmen from Saudi Arabian airlines said a few weeks ago on local TV that they are negotiating with both B and A. When asked about the A380, he sa
53 CX747 : MD-90s weren't "out of date" in the early 90s. As for ordering 747-100s in the late 70s, does anyone have more information as to the reasoning? Getti
54 Alitalia744 : guess the same can be said for all those airlines that ordered A340-300s huh? nice way to start another war cedarjet, something you're good at eh?
55 Ultrapig : Unfortunately Non-Muslims are never allowed to visit Mecca even after the Hadj-It's really too bad-Mecca would be on the top of my places to visit-To
56 Heavierthanair : G´day Not only this but as it turned out the CIA at the time wiretapped all communications between the Saudies and Airbus giving Boeing and MDD a hea
57 SV777KiloAlpha : One more point.... This deal will be pressured by delivery slots more than politics. SV new GM has said in several occasions, that they are in need of
58 CX747 : The communications were not wiretapped to give Boeing and MDD a headstart. The CIA's eavesdropping equipment picked up conversations in France.
59 MaverickM11 : I agree. They barely need anything bigger than an A300 in terms of capacity except for the Hajj, when they can lease capacity just like everyone else
60 CX747 : If they can barely fill an A300, then why not an all 787 or A350 order? They could mix and match model types to better suite their needs.
61 Cedarjet : I have no idea what any of this means. The A340-300 is a successful aircraft that is still in production and makes lots of money for the many airline
62 MaverickM11 : That's what I would think would be prudent, ie an order that contains nothing larger than a 788 at most, but then again we are talking SV here.
63 Flying-Tiger : They WERE wire-tapped, and there were quite a few angry European governments at that time because of this.
64 Post contains images TeamAmerica : IIRC the UK was also implicated in the wiretaps, and on the flip side the wiretaps revealed that the French were offering bribes to Saudi officials.
65 Post contains images Agill : Maybe that should be a thing at the wto things about the launch aid. "Ok, Airbus can get the government loans and Boeing can have CIA wiretapping Air
66 CX747 : To the best of my knowledge, they were not wiretapped. They were listend to, but not via wiretap. It was thought at the time, that illegal practices
67 EI321 : correct, after which Saudi Arabian Airlines originaly wanted to place orders for both Airbus and Boeing airplanes (plus BAe 146), President Clinton p
68 Acheron : My guess: More 77W, either a split order between A350 & 788 or a pure 787 set, and 748i.
69 Airbazar : I agree and even that is a stretch for an Airbus. Just look at Saudi's current fleet and you'll know right away where their new planes will come from
70 MD90fan : Didn't a while back SV said they were getting A330s?
71 SJCRRPAX : Is there any advantage beside Geography for an airline to be base in an Oil Rich country? I would think being able to do a technical in a place where
72 HiJazzey : Some guys here are diverging far off topic. This has been in the works. They were planning a fleet renewal from last year, and have been talking with
73 TeamAmerica : You're assuming that fuel is cheap in the Middle East. To the best of my knowledge that is not the case. A little cheaper, maybe, but nothing like 25
74 Post contains links SJCRRPAX : I have no idea what the jet fuel costs in Saudia Arabia, but here is a link that shows 91 octane gasoline can be had for $.45 gallon. http://www.saud
75 Manni : US$12 billion worth of orders. Airbus is due to make a major order announcement on Monday... Is it SV?
76 Bongodog1964 : Its economically unfeasible to tanker fuel around in aircraft. You need to burn more fuel than you deliver to the destination. In addition aircraft c
77 Post contains links Keesje : Yes there are.. http://www.biff.nl/images/filmpjes/Bonaire%20Quito.wmv[Edited 2007-01-05 10:58:12]
78 UA772IAD : Combined, yes. However, separately, the US and France are no's 1 & 2
79 Ruscoe : This from the Economist.com June 12 2003; According to a European Parliament report, published in 2001, America's National Security Agency (NSA) inter
80 KL577 : Wow! Great video
81 Keesje : I have heard some rumors (can't remember where/when) that you can't do business in 75% of the world without agents & consultants. So in theory anyone
82 CX747 : Thanks for further info Ruscoe.
83 PM : Hysterical! Wasn't it over bribes to do with the sale of F-16s (that well-known European product) that the husband of the Dutch Queen was caught with
84 SJCRRPAX : Yes, but wouldn't EK be at a big advantage on a trip to the Far East from London if they only bought enough fuel to go from London to Dubai, and than
85 Post contains images KC135TopBoom : I agree, perhaps they will need about 20 B-787-300s? That will be their only use for the A-380, but the Royal family may also want 1 or 2 B-747-800BB
86 Post contains links HiJazzey : Saudi Arabian airlines say they're not planning any purchases: http://today.reuters.com/news/articl...AUDI-AIRCRAFT.XML&rpc=66&type=qcna
87 Post contains links Scbriml : Also reported in today's Gulf News. http://www.gulfnews.com/business/Aviation/10095084.html
88 Art : You are either extremely well-informed or extremely ill-informed, I think. Could you pass on any reasons why you reach your conclusions regarding the
89 KC135TopBoom : Price. Somehow, I tend to believe that an airplane purchase transaction will take place, sooner or later. But, the timing of any transaction really i
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