9V From China, joined Aug 2008, 0 posts, RR: 0 Reply 2, posted (6 years 11 months 2 weeks 9 hours ago) and read 25126 times:
Indonesian military ships and aircraft have been searching for this passenger plane since it went missing on Monday. Now, excuse my ignorance but why haven't they found it yet? Is it a lack of resources in this part of the world?
Kretek From United Kingdom, joined Nov 2006, 94 posts, RR: 0 Reply 4, posted (6 years 11 months 2 weeks 9 hours ago) and read 25109 times:
Quoting HB-IWC (Reply 236):
Yet for the Indonesian Government, it is business as usual and there is no obvious emergency noticeable in its operation.
Can I add the perennial problem of haze, a result of deliberate and illegal forest fires set by farmers and palm plantation companies on the islands of Sumatra and Kalimantan, cause immense suffering and health effects on the local population, and nearby Singapore and Malaysia. The government has done nothing for the past decade and has no motivation to prosecute those responsible nor enforce the law. Despite protests from neighbouring countries and satellite images of hot spots clearly showing who owns that plot of land, they turn around by arguing there were no witnesses on the ground to have witnessed the setting of fires! It is just as HB-IWC said, business as usual.
Quoting HB-IWC (Reply 227):
Yet I can assure you that the wheelings and dealings of Indonesia are governed by a completely different set of rules.
2 days ago, I flew from Singapore to Surabaya on ValuAir, with mainly indonesian passengers. On boarding, the flight crew announced in both English and Indonesian that boarding will take place according to seat numbers (rear first and front last). This is to prevent passengers seated at the front from holding up others who are seated at the back. In predictable Indonesian style, almost everyone in the waiting area surged to the boarding gate ignoring the seat procedure announcement. Fortunately the crew at the gate prevented this from happening. Then after landing in Surabaya, whilst still taxiing to the gate, I heard several (then immediately everyone) people unbuckling the seatbelts, jumping off the seats and starting to open the overhead bins despite the crew announcing in both english and indon to wait until the seatbelt signs are off.
The point is, there is a lack of discipline amongst indons. Too difficult to explain unless you have lived here. The motto is ' whatever comes by'.
Sorry if i go off topic here, but to illustrate the point: I was driving along a main busy road, 3 lanes, at night. Suddenly, there appeared in front of me what looked like a pole right in the middle of the left-most lane! It's just another shabby job, instead of removing the pole they just left it there and continued asphalting the road. This is the kind of attitude and thinking prevalent in Indon society. Different mindset. It's hard to comprehend for foreigners!
Quoting Rikkus67 (Reply 1): what is the most current information regarding this aircraft?
On local news, still don't know the where abouts of crash site. Singapore and US are helping local authorities with the search.
Jetfan From Germany, joined Mar 2006, 52 posts, RR: 0 Reply 6, posted (6 years 11 months 2 weeks 9 hours ago) and read 25069 times:
Quoting ANother (Reply 234):
Interesting article in Flight about IOSA here.
Interesting article, especially the comments on "blame-free reporting". Do you think an independent organization allowing pilots, FAs, rampers and so on anonymously report irregularities would help? This could be located in a country not suspected to have economical, religious or other political interests, which of course appears to be difficult to find.
Maybe ratings based on safety reports, like Mandala499 gave us, could be published and help airline passengers to decide, which risk they want to take. Like Skytrax, but not related to comfort and service, but safety. It's difficult to rate safety based on cabin interior or IFE, but that's what passengers do, lacking other information. Reliable safety information not being available contributes a lot to pax choosing an airline based on fare only.
Ptharris From United States of America, joined Dec 2005, 282 posts, RR: 5 Reply 7, posted (6 years 11 months 2 weeks 9 hours ago) and read 25040 times:
I heard on Oregons 12 (www.kptv.com) this morning that the three only Americans on board were from Bend, Oregon. Sadly that's the only news I've been able to see within the last few days. Man, they've got to find that plane.
If at first you don't succeed, skydiving isn't for you.
HB-IWC From Greece, joined Sep 2000, 4450 posts, RR: 74 Reply 8, posted (6 years 11 months 2 weeks 8 hours ago) and read 24967 times:
Quoting Rikkus67 (Reply 1): what is the most current information regarding this aircraft?
We are still nowhere.
Quoting 9V (Reply 2): Indonesian military ships and aircraft have been searching for this passenger plane since it went missing on Monday. Now, excuse my ignorance but why haven't they found it yet? Is it a lack of resources in this part of the world?
A severe lack of resources and infrastructure - according to today's Jakarta Post Makassar is the only radar in the vicinity there, and it is probably malfunctioning because of lack of maintenance - coupled with stupidity, ignorance and backwardness are likely some of the elements that are dragging this investigation.
As of today, Singapore has sent an aircraft to assist wit the search efforts, but it is unclear whether this aircraft has indeed been deployed. Also the US will soon be involved, according to a statement of the US Embassy in Jakarta. Fact is that the Indonesians, no matter all their blabbering to the contrary, can clearly not get a grip on the situation.
The initial reports that the plane had been found in the morning of January 2, followed by the announcement of 12 survivors by the highest authorities in the country are now the focus of most of the press report. All of the government officials involved in this embarrassing episode are now, in the best of Indonesian traditions, going out of their way to escape any blame.
An interesting tidbit with regard to this false information was a statement by the National Police saying that they would not investigate the false reports. Said National Police Spokesman Brig. Gen. Anton Bachrul Alam: "Lying to the public is not in the Criminal Code. Therefore we will not investigate these false reports." Welcome to one of the world's few remaining Banana Republics!
Meanwhile, operations at Adam Air seem to have resumed normally. One would actually expect a drop in bookings and passenger numbers after this terrible disaster, but not so in here: Adam flights have been going out from Jakarta's Soekarno Hatta airport as packed as ever. I presume that the airline might further drop its prices for a while, which should be enough to keeps the seats from staying empty.
Very disturbing, finally, was an intervention by Indonesia's Vice President Jusuf Kalla, who has openly come to the defense of Adam Air and its management, stating that the airline was for sure not to blame for whatever had happened. Coming from the country's number 2, this statement is very disturbing. One would expect a little bit more common sense from a person is such a responsible position, yet when considering that the Chairman of Adam Air and Speaker of the Indonesian House of Representatives is the Vice President's closest political ally, these statements come as no surprise.
I would presume that, if this disaster and its ensuing mishaps in communication had happened in many other countries in the world, political heads would have long rolled by now. Not so in this country, where political responsibility is a concept as shallow as the bearers of the political offices.
HB-IWC From Greece, joined Sep 2000, 4450 posts, RR: 74 Reply 10, posted (6 years 11 months 2 weeks 8 hours ago) and read 24854 times:
Another bit of news that will not come as a surprise for anyone who has ever lived in Indonesia for a while, but which is without any doubt beyond ludicrous to all the others is that the Indonesian Government has today deployed a batch of Mystics to assist in the search for the missing plane.
Now, before you starting ROFL, I couldn't be more serious about this. The Indonesian Government actually has some of these people on the payroll and they dispatch them is all kinds of seemingly desperate situations. These people, up to the highest ranks of government, do indeed believe that a bunch of assorted mystics and paranormals can make a difference in these kinds of situations. It is at the same time the perfect illustration of the kind of backwardness I mentioned earlier that might be hampering the search operation.
Laddb From United States of America, joined Feb 2001, 191 posts, RR: 0 Reply 12, posted (6 years 11 months 2 weeks 8 hours ago) and read 24728 times:
If I am correct, for now they pretty much agree that the plane went down in the water. I do not know what type of pinger was on that plane, but I do know they have very limited battery life. So unless there is a ship or sub within the general area listening for the pinger before the battery goes dead, they won't find it that way. At this point, I'd guess the battery is dead. So next, they must use aircraft to search for debris floating on the surface. I'm actually surprised they have not found any yet, but maybe there are not enough planes searching. Then, using current and wind models, you can predict fairly accurately where the plane went down vs where the debris was found. At that point you start the lawn mower pattern over the area towing a side scan sonar and logging the hits. Each hit is then investigated using an ROV or diver if it is shallow enough. The ROV can also pick up the black boxes. This all takes time, but if you have the resources available, it should already be happening.
Now, after discussions with several pilots, flying from Surabaya to Manado, one would normally file for airway W32... which brings you from Surabaya VOR, to Makassar VOR, then to Manado VOR... But... Normally, pilots would request or ATC would give a shortcut from ENDOG (05-52.6S 117-09.6E) direct to Manado, or the two penultimate waypoints on the route (TAPIR or LUANG).
This should give you a track of 045 out of ENDOG (my chart's out of date)... However, that picture, by looking at the track where it crosses the CTAs, would appear to be on a 038 track out of ENDOG... Now this could be due to weather deviation, which if true, would add to more mystery as to the aircraft's whereabouts because it would have been able to then track direct to Manado after clearing the weather.
HOWEVER, what if the track heading difference was not due to weather deviation... a Navigation error, a repeat of the Tambolaka Incident by PK-KKE earlier last year.
The Tambolaka incident was a case where the IRS gave erroneous readings without raising the alarm to the pilot, which then guided the aircraft astray forcing the emergency landings. Adam Air and in particular PK-KKE has a history of "bad IRS"... poor maintenance of those units have been cited as the problem.
The Tambolaka incident is only possible if the pilots did not tune or allow the radios to autotune to VORs along the route. This would expose the aircraft to IRS errors on a remote area.
Coming back to the current accident, a track of 038 would quickly bring them out of radar coverage at Makassar, and also VOR coverage. Now a correct 045 track, once out of range from Makassar VOR would not pick Manado VOR until within 100NM nor would they detect Gorontalo VOR until about 100NM south of Gorontalo. This info is based on talking to a pilot who used to and one who still fly the route (they're not with Adam Air).
A 038 track from ENDOG would never bring them anywhere in range of Gorontalo or Manado VORs... and the only VOR that came within range is Palu... but Palu's range eastbound isn't too good either, limited to 80NM or so thanks to the mountains, and if you're on W32, you would not be able to pick up Palu VOR.
Now some flight crew still have the habit of not tuning their VORs to enroute facilities or allow their NAVs to autotune... One of the pilots I talked to who fly the 734 admits to occassionally forget tuning the VORs to enroute facilities, or know that his colleague has forgotten about it too. And when they do tune in, they never tune into Palu VOR. With a "bad IRS", this increases risk of straying from the intended route as there would be no FMC position corrections being put in and the sole positioning info would be from the IRUs which are faulty.
And on the communications front, such a track would put them out of range of Makassar Center and Manado Approach... and they possibly had no idea they were close to Palu... Despite having HF frequencies available, the case of PK-KKE showed no information/record that the pilots ever contacted the correct HF radio when they realised they were lost. In the case of KKW, this is again, a possibility...
If the aircraft had indeed made an error track of 038 instead of 045 without intention, the aircraft couldn't have tuned into Makassar VOR when they left ENDOG... a possible reason for this was that the crew didn't tune into it because ENDOG is at the edge of coverage for Makassar VOR, which they were going to by pass by some distance anyways.
From what I heard from friends, Capt. Widodo is a good captain, and I could be flamed for suggesting that this was a inertial nav error due to not tuning into VORs... but again, no one expected a pilot from the DGAC (Indo CAA) making that mistake while on KKE...
If the above could happen, then, I fear, that the search is totally in the wrong area. Following the example of the KKE incident, no one was aware of the problem until they descended. Now, in the case of KKW yesterday, had that error track 038 been taken, the top of descent point would have been past the northern coastline of Sulawesi, with nothing but sea until the Philippines... my greatest fear is that this has happened, and when they descended, they saw nothing but water (which, if on W32, you may see nothign but water at the initial top of descent for a few mins under normal circumstances)... Given the shape of Sulawesi, they may have been lead to believe that they descended early, and decided to press on for a few more miles, which by then would ensure that the northern coast of Sulawesi was beyond the horizon behind them... leaving them no positional reference at all!
God I pray I'm wrong and that they could be found soon! The crew on the flight are known to my friends and colleagues and are good people. I had to comfort a friend who panicked because one of the F/As was his good friend.
God Bless Them!
Quote: The area only has 1 radar, which is in Makassar, and it only goes to about 100 - 150NM. Now the last radar contact was at 340@100NM... so, there is a possibility that it was still flying and OK when it left radar coverage area...
But hang on, if I'm not mistaken a distress call was made (assuming that at least that info is correct of course). That should give them a pretty accurate clue about the distance flown (although not necessarily the heading). Is there any more info on this? If the distress call came about halfway during the flight, they wouldn't have run out of fuel (assuming they made no mistake in the fuel calculations, everything is possible here).
As silly as Adam Air is, the ops guys do load the correct amount of fuel, + for the alternates... this is probably the only safe thing in Adam I can vouch for. Flights on that route were given 4hrs fuel endurance as a result, and the information is that the flight that day was no different.
The only things official are:
- Aircraft was given direct to Manado from ENDOG (confirmed in press conference)
- Aircraft reported abeam Makassar at radial 320/80NM MKS @ FL350 (time unknown)
- Last Radar Contact was radial 340/100NM MKS @ FL350 (there was a timestamp on this but forgot when).
- 2 ELT impact signals were received... 1 over the water, another was overland... and quite some distance apart.
- No distress calls were made over the COMMS.
I wouldn't accept any other official explanations without skepticism on any official news that would bring a light of hope after yesterday's debacle!
One thing I still need to check was, apart from 1 GA aircraft, were there any other aircraft within 250NM that was on the expected VHF frequencies.
Quote: Jetfuel, reply 197
I found a news article claiming plane broke up in mid-air causing parts to fall over wide area because the Adam Air Boeing 737-400 emergency beacons are sending signals from different locations
".............The cause of the crash still remains to be determined, but in an interview with Jakarta-based MetroTV, someone called Felix claimed that some months ago some Adam Air pilots were forced to resign because they objected to fly planes they considered unsafe..."
Send not to know for whom the bell tolls...it tolls for thee
Curmudgeon From Australia, joined Oct 2006, 695 posts, RR: 22 Reply 14, posted (6 years 11 months 2 weeks 6 hours ago) and read 24385 times:
From an earlier post:
"I admire the effort, but I suspect FL360 is not going to provide the best results looking for a weak (e.g. underwater, buried in ground, or low battery) signal. Too much interference. 18 hours after the accident- that was the following morning? Nighttime you might have had a chance, but during the day there is too much radio interference."
What are you talking about? There is no difference in interference on 121.50/243mHz day or night. These are VHF signals, and are detectable by line-of-sight rules. An aircraft 36,000' above a signal will hear it from 233 nautical miles. (unless submerged or hidden by hills, etc). If satellites can detect these signals, your "too high" hypothesis is kind of shot.
FlyingColours From United Kingdom, joined Dec 2003, 2315 posts, RR: 11 Reply 15, posted (6 years 11 months 2 weeks 5 hours ago) and read 24272 times:
The ELTs we used to have on the 737s would broadcast on the usual freqs (121.5 etc...) for 48 hours before the battery died. They would also broadcast to satilites for 24 hours after activation.
Either way I find this entire situation appalling and its about time the rest of the world intervined. I mean I've heard of corrupt governments and seen lots of corruption elsewhere but they have taken the entire biscuit tin there.
Lifes a train racing towards you, now you can either run away or grab a chair & a beer and watch it come - Phil
Nwafflyer From United States of America, joined Jul 2004, 1050 posts, RR: 2 Reply 16, posted (6 years 11 months 2 weeks 5 hours ago) and read 24172 times:
The thing that totally amazes me is the apparent reaction of the Indonesian people. Yes, I know Indonesia is a third world country, but I cannot understand why Adam Air is not being boycotted by the public. I read the earlier threads on the Indonesian reactions, but personally, I just can't make sense of it at all.
And then, I also wonder if someone in the government knows what has happened -- this is 2007, and with today's technology, combined with the technology of even an old 737, this whole incident makes no sense at all
Hmmmm... From Canada, joined May 1999, 2095 posts, RR: 5 Reply 17, posted (6 years 11 months 2 weeks 4 hours ago) and read 24011 times:
One possibility is that the aircraft suffered a terrorist bombing. Islamic terrorism has been very active in Indonesia lately. If the aircraft broke apart at high altitude, and fell to earth in smaller pieces, that would make finding it that much more difficult. In that scenario, there is no crash site, so they are looking for something that does not exist. The crash site was at cruising altitude and all you have on the ground are small pieces hidden by the forest canopy.
It could be that wreckage is not found by searchers but by native indians living under that canopy.
An optimist robs himself of the joy of being pleasantly surprised
Jetfuel From Australia, joined Jan 2005, 2147 posts, RR: 0 Reply 18, posted (6 years 11 months 2 weeks 3 hours ago) and read 23926 times:
Quoting Nwafflyer (Reply 16): Yes, I know Indonesia is a third world country, but I cannot understand why Adam Air is not being boycotted by the public. I read the earlier threads on the Indonesian reactions, but personally, I just can't make sense of it at all.
Sadly, it's the way of life. For many Indonesians their fate is in the hands of the gods. Airline travel is safe and they have been reassured by the government that the Adam Air is 100% safe. There have been hundreds killed in ferry sinkings and road accidents are also common. For many money is very limited and they will take their chances to save a few $.
Yes it is much a 3rd world country and with that brings an acceptance of things being second rate.
Where's the passion gone out of the airline industry? The smell of jetfuel and the romance of taking a flight....
Mandala499 From Indonesia, joined Aug 2001, 6416 posts, RR: 74 Reply 19, posted (6 years 11 months 2 weeks ago) and read 23558 times:
Quoting Rikkus67 (Reply 1): what is the most current information regarding this aircraft?
Search is now beginning in the gulf of Tomini south of Gorontalo (the big gulf around MKS 040@400NM)... edging towards my previous hypothesis.
1 RSAF F50 is searching that area, and another RSAF "jet" is (unofficially) reported to begin search "somewhere near N02 - N04 E122 - E124... which is the search area I proposed to the NTSC, though this last one is UNCONFIRMED.
The silly thing is different reports trying to confirm whether the radar in MKS was working or not and there are some who are trying to push the search area to be more focused on the southwest sector of MKS... around the area just after ENDOG... this is despite the last radar report already being in the north west sector (and this is one of the few information that has not changed since).
Quoting Nwafflyer (Reply 16): but I cannot understand why Adam Air is not being boycotted by the public.
The local travel agency association (ASITA) in if I remember correctly, 3 provinces, have boycotted Adam Air since late last year... this has not reduced the number of pax travelling on Adam Air though.
When losing situational awareness, pray Cumulus Granitus isn't nearby !