Rather inevitable, I suppose, given the recent route award to UA for another PEK route. This will put it squarely against CO's EWR-PVG (I assume CO will resubmit EWR-PVG), which, IMO, will probably wiin out over DL's ATL application, simply because of the strengths of the NYC market (witness a repeat performance of the previous award to AA for ORD-PVG...)
Xkorpyoh From United States, joined Oct 2004, 789 posts, RR: 0 Reply 1, posted (2 years 9 months 3 weeks 2 days 23 hours ago) and read 4056 times:
with this intense competition, would it be more competitive for DL to apply for LAX-PVG or PEK?
That would launch their rumoured LAX hub and start expanding from there.
I think the ATL-China flights could wait.
Delta787 From United States, joined May 2006, 311 posts, RR: 0 Reply 2, posted (2 years 9 months 3 weeks 2 days 22 hours ago) and read 3929 times:
Quoting Xkorpyoh (Reply 1): with this intense competition, would it be more competitive for DL to apply for LAX-PVG or PEK?
That would launch their rumoured LAX hub and start expanding from there.
LAX is thinking about taking gates away from Delta at LAX. Launching a China route from there is probably not the best idea right now.
SLCUT2777 From United States, joined Dec 2005, 3693 posts, RR: 14 Reply 3, posted (2 years 9 months 3 weeks 2 days 21 hours ago) and read 3857 times:
Given that CO already has a China route as well as AA, UA and NW, I think DL is wise to switch from Beijing (PEK) to Shanghai (PVG). This change isn't late in the game due to a disagreement with the pilots as was the case with the change AA made on their application for this last round of incumbents. Adding an ATL connection into the Chinese mainland is a sound idea. Keep in mind that all three of China's big carriers already serve LAX or NYC-JFK. Eventually they'll get U.S. flag carriers, but in subsequent years during the incumbency process is more likely. I think DL is taking prudent steps early to insure they will come out on top in 2008.
DELTA Air Lines; The Only Way To Fly from Salt Lake City; Let the Western Heritage always be with Delta!
Positiverate From United States, joined May 2005, 1590 posts, RR: 11 Reply 4, posted (2 years 9 months 3 weeks 2 days 20 hours ago) and read 3697 times:
Quoting Xkorpyoh (Reply 1): with this intense competition, would it be more competitive for DL to apply for LAX-PVG or PEK?
That would launch their rumoured LAX hub and start expanding from there.
I think the ATL-China flights could wait.
The Southeast is the nation's fastest growing area, and the only region without nonstop service to China. Delta has offered to provide the most on-line connecting service and would serve more cities, and provide more communities with their first nonstop-to nonstop connections to China. ATL makes tremendously more sense than LAX.
SLCUT2777 From United States, joined Dec 2005, 3693 posts, RR: 14 Reply 5, posted (2 years 9 months 3 weeks 2 days 19 hours ago) and read 3584 times:
Quoting Positiverate (Reply 4): The Southeast is the nation's fastest growing area, and the only region without nonstop service to China. Delta has offered to provide the most on-line connecting service and would serve more cities, and provide more communities with their first nonstop-to nonstop connections to China. ATL makes tremendously more sense than LAX.
I think ATL-PVG for starters and then perhaps in a later incumbent filing adding and LAX-PEK route. But the key right now is making a case to USDOT early next year and they are trying hard to do it. As I said above, LAX along with NYC-JFK&EWR are covered by some of the big Chines airlines as it is. Getting a U.S. Flag carrier into one of these two big gateways is redundant in its appearance. the official DL press release: http://news.delta.com/article_display.cfm?article_id=10525
DELTA Air Lines; The Only Way To Fly from Salt Lake City; Let the Western Heritage always be with Delta!
LAXdude1023 From United States, joined Sep 2006, 4347 posts, RR: 22 Reply 6, posted (2 years 9 months 3 weeks 2 days 18 hours ago) and read 3487 times:
DL wont do the route from LAX. Why compete with all the major asian carriers at LAX when you can go from a competition free ATL?
Commavia From United States, joined Apr 2005, 6762 posts, RR: 59 Reply 7, posted (2 years 9 months 3 weeks 2 days 18 hours ago) and read 3476 times:
Personally, I don't see the switch from PEK to PVG making much of a difference. At least from my perspective, Delta has the 2008 authority locked up no matter which city if chooses to fly to. Not only would an ATL-China route link the world's largest hub with one of the world's fastest-growing economies, and provide a direct link to said country from the southern U.S. for the first time, but Delta will be the only serious new-entrant applicant to 2008: American, Continental, Northwest and United all already fly there.
Unless Delta really, really screws it up (a la American/APA), I think they've got it.
Cba From United States, joined Jul 2000, 4454 posts, RR: 4 Reply 8, posted (2 years 9 months 3 weeks 2 days 18 hours ago) and read 3469 times:
The NYC market might be served already, but putting another US carrier in the game serves everyone better, as it increases competition on the routes. Beating CO's application from EWR will be tough those. Although ATL has a tremendous amount of domestic connections, CO and COEX serve just about every major city in the US, and a pretty sizable. Sure ATL has more connections, but we're looking at:
1. CO @ EWR - huge O&D, large amount of connections
2. DL @ ATL - some O&D, huge amount of connections
So basically, CO's service would satisfy both requirements. CO and COEX also serve a lot of destinations in the southeast from EWR.
DFWEagle From United States, joined Dec 2006, 334 posts, RR: 0 Reply 10, posted (2 years 9 months 3 weeks 2 days 18 hours ago) and read 3433 times:
Quoting LAXdude1023 (Reply 6): DL wont do the route from LAX. Why compete with all the major asian carriers at LAX when you can go from a competition free ATL?
Last time Delta applied for an ATL-China route, DOT established that there were only 9 passengers per day that travel between Atlanta and the whole of China and that 72 of the connecting markets that DL proposed had less than one passenger per day travelling to China.
On the other hand, LAX generates more O&D to China than any other US city, accounting for just over a third of the total traffic.
SLCUT2777 From United States, joined Dec 2005, 3693 posts, RR: 14 Reply 11, posted (2 years 9 months 3 weeks 2 days 17 hours ago) and read 3383 times:
Quoting DFWEagle (Reply 10): On the other hand, LAX generates more O&D to China than any other US city, accounting for just over a third of the total traffic.
LAX also has China Eastern, China Southern as well as China Airlines serving them.
It would be redundant for DL or any other U.S. Flag carrier to get into the Los Angeles or NYC gateways to China. I see LAX, JFK, EWR gaining service from an incumbent U.S. flag carrier application perhaps in 2009.
DELTA Air Lines; The Only Way To Fly from Salt Lake City; Let the Western Heritage always be with Delta!
Drerx7 From United States, joined Jun 2000, 3218 posts, RR: 7 Reply 12, posted (2 years 9 months 3 weeks 2 days 17 hours ago) and read 3373 times:
Quoting DFWEagle (Reply 10): Last time Delta applied for an ATL-China route, DOT established that there were only 9 passengers per day that travel between Atlanta and the whole of China and that 72 of the connecting markets that DL proposed had less than one passenger per day travelling to China.
Which is why I see DL has an uphill battle--while I am not a DL fan and an even bigger NON-Atlanta fan I would like to see them get the route to increase the competition. I don't see how the numbers could have dramatically improved in the past few years to prove to DOT.
DFWEagle From United States, joined Dec 2006, 334 posts, RR: 0 Reply 13, posted (2 years 9 months 3 weeks 2 days 17 hours ago) and read 3358 times:
Quoting SLCUT2777 (Reply 11): LAX also has China Eastern, China Southern as well as China Airlines serving them.
It would be redundant for DL or any other U.S. Flag carrier to get into the Los Angeles or NYC gateways to China. I see LAX, JFK, EWR gaining service from an incumbent U.S. flag carrier application perhaps in 2009.
I completely agree with you.
US carriers are unlikely to get service from LAX in the short term because the DOT is unlikely to grant it (because the market is already served). It is not because the US carriers are worried about competition from the Chinese airlines – the market is large enough to support them both.
BTW China Airlines is from Taiwan which is an entirely separate market. I’m sure you meant Air China, which flies LAX-PEK daily.
Quoting Drerx7 (Reply 12): Which is why I see DL has an uphill battle--while I am not a DL fan and an even bigger NON-Atlanta fan I would like to see them get the route to increase the competition. I don't see how the numbers could have dramatically improved in the past few years to prove to DOT.
DL has a major advantage in the fact that they are new entrant to the market and the DOT has an opportunity to designate a new carrier in the market. I think that DL has by far the best chance at winning the 2008 authority.
SLCUT2777 From United States, joined Dec 2005, 3693 posts, RR: 14 Reply 14, posted (2 years 9 months 3 weeks 2 days 17 hours ago) and read 3347 times:
Quoting DFWEagle (Reply 13): BTW China Airlines is from Taiwan which is an entirely separate market. I'm sure you meant Air China, which flies LAX-PEK daily.
Yes, I meant one of the big three from the mainland. Taiwan is completely different!
DELTA Air Lines; The Only Way To Fly from Salt Lake City; Let the Western Heritage always be with Delta!
EWRCabincrew From Canada, joined May 2006, 5347 posts, RR: 59 Reply 15, posted (2 years 9 months 3 weeks 2 days 17 hours ago) and read 3338 times:
The 2008 route will probably go to a cargo airline. Since it is open to all carriers (scheduled, charter and cargo), I foresee it going to a cargo one.
LAXdude1023 From United States, joined Sep 2006, 4347 posts, RR: 22 Reply 16, posted (2 years 9 months 3 weeks 2 days 17 hours ago) and read 3326 times:
Quoting DFWEagle (Reply 13): US carriers are unlikely to get service from LAX in the short term because the DOT is unlikely to grant it (because the market is already served). It is not because the US carriers are worried about competition from the Chinese airlines – the market is large enough to support them both.
I think LAX could get the route. The DOT doesnt care about the Chineese Carriers. But I dont think we will see any US based carrier trying to fly from LAX because the competition is so stiff.
SLCUT2777 From United States, joined Dec 2005, 3693 posts, RR: 14 Reply 17, posted (2 years 9 months 3 weeks 2 days 17 hours ago) and read 3320 times:
Quoting EWRCabincrew (Reply 15): The 2008 route will probably go to a cargo airline. Since it is open to all carriers (scheduled, charter and cargo), I foresee it going to a cargo one.
I believe they have split the passenger and cargo operations as far as application for entry. It used to be that FedEx and UPS would have to compete with the passenger operators, but that is no longer the case.
Quoting DFWEagle (Reply 13): It is not because the US carriers are worried about competition from the Chinese airlines -- the market is large enough to support them both.
The Chinese just want to make sure they're big three are up to international standards, and in their view they haven't been so hence the regulation of new authorities.
Quoting DFWEagle (Reply 13): DL has a major advantage in the fact that they are new entrant to the market and the DOT has an opportunity to designate a new carrier in the market. I think that DL has by far the best chance at winning the 2008 authority.
Which is why many are saying it is DL's to screw up.
DELTA Air Lines; The Only Way To Fly from Salt Lake City; Let the Western Heritage always be with Delta!
DFWEagle From United States, joined Dec 2006, 334 posts, RR: 0 Reply 18, posted (2 years 9 months 3 weeks 2 days 17 hours ago) and read 3317 times:
Quoting EWRCabincrew (Reply 15): The 2008 route will probably go to a cargo airline. Since it is open to all carriers (scheduled, charter and cargo), I foresee it going to a cargo one.
Cargo frequencies are allocated separately to combination frequencies. In 2008, 7 weekly combination frequencies and 15 weekly cargo frequencies become available.
The same was true for the 2007 proceedings and 4 cargo frequencies were awarded each to Federal Express, Northwest Airlines and Polar Air Cargo. The remaining three are still unclaimed and anyone can apply for those three whenever they like.
FlyPNS1 From United States, joined Nov 1999, 3771 posts, RR: 25 Reply 21, posted (2 years 9 months 3 weeks 2 days 17 hours ago) and read 3289 times:
I definitely think DL will have a good chance for this one. I think the only real competition will be CO from EWR. UA/NW will have no chance. AA might have a chance, but they'd better get their act together so they don't screw it up like the most recent proceeding.
One note to DL management, when you show a map of all the connecting possibilities for the China service, you might not want to include markets that you no longer serve (ISO, HKY, CMI).
DFWEagle From United States, joined Dec 2006, 334 posts, RR: 0 Reply 22, posted (2 years 9 months 3 weeks 2 days 17 hours ago) and read 3284 times:
Quoting LAXdude1023 (Reply 16): I think LAX could get the route. The DOT doesnt care about the Chineese Carriers. But I dont think we will see any US based carrier trying to fly from LAX because the competition is so stiff.
The whole reason that China insists the market is so restricted is because the Chinese carriers would never stand a chance in competing against the US carriers. The competition coming from the mainland Chinese airlines would not be stiff – they are simply not competitive airlines.
Also, the DOT does care about Chinese Airlines – they cited China Eastern’s JFK-PVG route when justifying their decision to deny CO the 2007 frequencies.
SLCUT2777 From United States, joined Dec 2005, 3693 posts, RR: 14 Reply 23, posted (2 years 9 months 3 weeks 2 days 17 hours ago) and read 3270 times:
Quoting DFWEagle (Reply 22): Also, the DOT does care about Chinese Airlines -- they cited China Eastern's JFK-PVG route when justifying their decision to deny CO the 2007 frequencies.
Which is why CO probably wont get the EWR-PVG route until 2009 at the earliest.
DELTA Air Lines; The Only Way To Fly from Salt Lake City; Let the Western Heritage always be with Delta!
LAXdude1023 From United States, joined Sep 2006, 4347 posts, RR: 22 Reply 24, posted (2 years 9 months 3 weeks 2 days 17 hours ago) and read 3259 times:
Quoting DFWEagle (Reply 22): The competition coming from the mainland Chinese airlines would not be stiff – they are simply not competitive airlines.
They are competitve when it comes to the dollar amount they charge. CZ, CA, and MU are always the cheapest out of LAX. Their service sux, but they are cheaper and people will fly them if they are the cheapest.
Positiverate From United States, joined May 2005, 1590 posts, RR: 11 Reply 25, posted (2 years 9 months 3 weeks 2 days 16 hours ago) and read 3246 times:
Quoting DFWEagle (Reply 10): Last time Delta applied for an ATL-China route, DOT established that there were only 9 passengers per day that travel between Atlanta and the whole of China and that 72 of the connecting markets that DL proposed had less than one passenger per day travelling to China.
Actually, the DOT, on page 23 of the Show Cause Order, stated that it believed “…American and Delta have the strongest proposals of all the applicants for the 2006 award.”
Quoting Drerx7 (Reply 12): Which is why I see DL has an uphill battle--while I am not a DL fan and an even bigger NON-Atlanta fan I would like to see them get the route to increase the competition. I don't see how the numbers could have dramatically improved in the past few years to prove to DOT.
The mistake you are making is looking at it purely as an O/D market (although given the trade agreements the State of Georgia alone has negotiated with China GA alone likely could support a nonstop), and not as a regional connection marketplace.
26 DFWEagle: Low yielding economy passengers will fly them. First and Business class passengers will be more reluctant if they have a choice, and this is where th
27 OA412: Yes UPS does serve China. They were awarded the frequencies in either 2003 or 2004 IIRC.
28 Drerx7: ATL hasn't dramatically changed that since then. I would say that the strength from DLs application is the fact that it is a new entrant--CO and othe
29 Positiverate: From a cargo market? It has grown leaps and bounds. From a passenger market, it has grown too. DOT, in its Show Cause for the 2006 award, doesn't agr
30 DFWEagle: That did not do them much good in the end though – they lost the case Yes – they connect more cities with non-stop to non-stop connections to Chi
32 WorldTraveler: ATL is the world's largest hub.... DL has created ATL as the first US carrier gateway to Africa. (there will be more soon), it is a huge hub for Europ
33 SLCUT2777: ATL has a whole slough of smaller more moderate sized markets they connect with that can feed into a ATL-PVG connection, not to mention south Florida
34 Drerx7: However, folks keep omitting the fact that... I'm sure that number may have grown, but not substantially. I'm sure a DL route to ATL would work (they
35 DFWEagle: I am sure ATL-PVG would be profitable – the very nature of such a restricted market means that almost any USA-China flight would make money. This i
36 FlyDreamliner: I wouldn't be so sure about that one...... where DL will get aircraft for this is another question in and of itself, but the bigger issue is: While e
37 Commavia: Personally, I see AA trying for LAX-PEK the next time around. It would serve a vast O&D market, eliminate any potential pilot union issues as it is w
38 FlyPNS1: However, the DOT will not consider this in their decision making process. In fact, you'll notice in DL's initial application they only show connectio
39 Delta787: They have 2 Boeing 777-200LRs on the way in 2008.
40 RwSEA: MU actually served SEA in the 1990s with service to PVG. Service was with an M11 if I remember correctly. It may have continued on to the NYC area, b
41 LAXdude1023: The above data makes me wonder why US carriers shy away from LAX when serveing Asia (except NRT). The market is astronomically larger than anywhere e
42 SESGDL: I don't agree completely with ATL having a bad location. There are people who will travel from places like PHL, Baltimore/D.C. Area, Norfolk, Richmon
43 RwSEA: It's pretty unfortunate - US carriers only want to add flights to their hubs. Cities like LAX, SEA, and BOS miss out because they aren't major hubs f
44 LAXdude1023: ATL is in a good location for Latin American-Asia Travel. That doesnt make it a good location. ORD is in a much better location. Naturally Im am spea
45 WorldTraveler: the point is that ATL's transpacific service generates very high amounts of revenue so there is obviously a market there... if DL and KE's existing A
46 SLCUT2777: Or drive north of the border to YVR; there is plenty of far east traffic in and out of there. Everyone thinks that every carrier needs to tank up on
47 Drerx7: I don't disagree with you WorldTraveler--when travelling 7500miles ATL is not really out of the way, and the route would definately be profitable beca
48 LAXdude1023: No the world doesnt revolve around those airports, however the market in LA and NYC accounts for more than half of US O&D to China. The one thing LAX
49 OA412: I agree with this. In fact, I was a bit surprised that AA didn't opt to try for LAX-PEK this time around but, obviously, they felt that with DL not c
50 WorldTraveler: Don't minimize the point that ATL is the world's largest hub and has service to just about every airport with commercial service in the eastern US -
51 Klwright69: I completely disagree. It is not going to be so automatic. The DOT is for the public's best interest, and they will go through the whole process just
52 WorldTraveler: no one has said it would be automatic. And AA would have had the route if their pilots hadn't thrown a temper tantrum. They would have opened a new g
53 Laxintl: And here is DL application submitted today for the 2008 allocation. http://dmses.dot.gov/docimages/p88/441524.pdf
54 Klwright69: No. How can you pretend to know what they would have decided. That is only your speculation.
55 Drerx7: I think AA would have gotten the route also.
56 WorldTraveler: why don't you quote the entire post... including the part that follows, "we'll never know". Don't talk about what journalists say if you practice the
57 LCFreeman49: Why is it that US Airways never bids for routes like this? What about a PHL-Shanghai route or Phoenix or Vegas to China Route? I know they are constra
58 SLCUT2777: If I were going to make a wager on it for 2008 I would say probably not, but for 2009 when it is just incumbents seeking to expand service, then I th
59 Drerx7: Do their 330s have that kind of range? I don't think they do.
60 CALPSAFltSkeds: Regarding the 772LR vs. 772ER, WorldTraveler says the LR has more cargo lift. That depends upon what version of the 772LR DL ordered (with or without
61 DFWEagle: MU is not in the Star Alliance and their codeshare partner in the USA is American Airlines (oneworld carrier). The fact that 1 or 2 routes from ATL t
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I think ATL-PVG for starters and then perhaps in a later incumbent filing adding and LAX-PEK route. But the key right now is making a case to USDOT early next year and they are trying hard to do it. As I said above, LAX along with NYC-JFK&EWR are covered by some of the big Chines airlines as it is. Getting a U.S. Flag carrier into one of these two big gateways is redundant in its appearance. the official DL press release:
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