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Emirates To Order 100 Planes Shortly  
User currently offlineUAL777UK From United Kingdom, joined Nov 2005, 3356 posts, RR: 1
Posted (7 years 11 months 1 day 17 hours ago) and read 18736 times:

Jeez, these guys are expanding like nothing.......I wonder if the delays with the 380 will heavily influebce their decision??

http://yahoo.reuters.com/news/articl...58_L24252628&type=comktNews&rpc=44

98 replies: All unread, showing first 25:
 
User currently offlineMastaHanky From United States of America, joined May 2006, 264 posts, RR: 0
Reply 1, posted (7 years 11 months 1 day 17 hours ago) and read 18747 times:

I think Emirates has been saying they're going to place a 100 plane order in two or three months for the past two years!

User currently offlineManni From South Korea, joined Nov 2001, 4221 posts, RR: 22
Reply 2, posted (7 years 11 months 1 day 16 hours ago) and read 18612 times:

There seem to be a few errors in the article. The deal is valued US$15 billion at listprice. Both the 787 (except the 783) and the A350XWB are more then US$150 million a piece IIRC, 100 of them would result in more then US$15 billion.

Emirates expects to take delivery of the first aircraft in 2012? How are they going to manage that if they choose the A350XWB, which is, according to the same article, due for 2013?

------------------------------------------------------------------------

"100 mid-sized, long-range planes, the first of which it expects to receive in 2012, its vice chairman said."

"Airbus is offering its A350 XWB due in 2013 versus Boeing Co.'s 787 due in 2008 for a deal that could be worth $15 billion at list prices."



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User currently onlineNYC777 From United States of America, joined Jun 2004, 5802 posts, RR: 47
Reply 3, posted (7 years 11 months 1 day 16 hours ago) and read 18578 times:

Quoting Manni (Reply 2):
Emirates expects to take delivery of the first aircraft in 2012? How are they going to manage that if they choose the A350XWB, which is, according to the same article, due for 2013?

Well then it looks as if their decision is already made for them.



That which does not kill me makes me stronger.
User currently offlineLeelaw From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 4, posted (7 years 11 months 1 day 16 hours ago) and read 18563 times:

From the Reuters article linked by the threadstarter:

Quote:
...Flanagan [vice chairman of EK] said Emirates was not seeking a discount on the 100 planes from Airbus related to the A380 delay.

"We want to make those separate. We want to make sure there is no muddying the water between the cost of 100 and the compensation," he said...

"...We think they (other airlines such as Singapore Airlines) settled too early. We think in the next 2-3 months we should be clear to reach settlement and accept compensation," Flanagan said.

"There is no way we can plug the capacity gap or the profitability gap. The hit has been quite strong in terms of revenue, profitability, in terms of network..."


User currently offlineJacobin777 From United States of America, joined Sep 2004, 14968 posts, RR: 59
Reply 5, posted (7 years 11 months 1 day 16 hours ago) and read 18530 times:

"''We'll make our minds up on this order when we're entirely clear on what these models offer,'' he (Emirates Vice Chairman Flanagan) said. ''We're not clear on the A350 widebody yet. We expect a clear picture from Airbus in a few months.''"

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?p...=conews&tkr=BA:US&sid=awD0AG7VaAf4



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User currently offlineDanny From Poland, joined Apr 2002, 3515 posts, RR: 3
Reply 6, posted (7 years 11 months 1 day 16 hours ago) and read 18405 times:

Quoting NYC777 (Reply 3):
Well then it looks as if their decision is already made for them.

Not really - read below:

Quoting Jacobin777 (Reply 5):
"''We'll make our minds up on this order when we're entirely clear on what these models offer,'' he (Emirates Vice Chairman Flanagan) said. ''We're not clear on the A350 widebody yet. We expect a clear picture from Airbus in a few months.''"

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?p...VaAf4


User currently offlineManni From South Korea, joined Nov 2001, 4221 posts, RR: 22
Reply 7, posted (7 years 11 months 1 day 16 hours ago) and read 18376 times:

Quoting NYC777 (Reply 3):
Well then it looks as if their decision is already made for them.

Looks like it. It seems that Airbus has decided to speed up the development of the A350XWB, to get it out in time for EK to take delivery of them in 2012.  duck 



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User currently onlineNYC777 From United States of America, joined Jun 2004, 5802 posts, RR: 47
Reply 8, posted (7 years 11 months 1 day 16 hours ago) and read 18219 times:

Quoting Manni (Reply 7):
Looks like it. It seems that Airbus has decided to speed up the development of the A350XWB, to get it out in time for EK to take delivery of them in 2012.

Well if the past is any indicator the A350 won't be out anytime before 2015.



That which does not kill me makes me stronger.
User currently offlineManni From South Korea, joined Nov 2001, 4221 posts, RR: 22
Reply 9, posted (7 years 11 months 1 day 16 hours ago) and read 18141 times:

Quoting NYC777 (Reply 8):

Well if the past is any indicator the A350 won't be out anytime before 2015.

The A350 is history, it wont even make 2015. The A350XWB on the other hand...  Wink



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User currently offlineScouseflyer From United Kingdom, joined Apr 2006, 3402 posts, RR: 9
Reply 10, posted (7 years 11 months 1 day 16 hours ago) and read 18105 times:

If this ends up happening (and by God they're taking their time!) will it be the biggest single order (by cost) in history?

User currently onlineNYC777 From United States of America, joined Jun 2004, 5802 posts, RR: 47
Reply 11, posted (7 years 11 months 1 day 16 hours ago) and read 18012 times:

Quoting Manni (Reply 9):
The A350 is history, it wont even make 2015. The A350XWB on the other hand...

Different label, same outcome.



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User currently offlineLeelaw From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 12, posted (7 years 11 months 1 day 15 hours ago) and read 17930 times:

Quoting Scouseflyer (Reply 10):
f this ends up happening (and by God they're taking their time!) will it be the biggest single order (by cost) in history?

Perhaps, if EK actually makes a firm order for 100 aircraft. My hunch is the "commitment" will be for 100 aircraft, but the firm order will probably be for 50 aircraft with options and/or purchase rights making up the balance.


User currently offlineSlz396 From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 13, posted (7 years 11 months 1 day 15 hours ago) and read 17877 times:

Quoting Leelaw (Reply 12):
My hunch is the "commitment" will be for 100 aircraft, but the firm order will probably be for 50 aircraft with options and/or purchase rights making up the balance

Indeed, my feelings exactly.

Besides, although 50 widebodies is not a small order, it is not really THAT impressive either and is needn't even be the single biggest WB order in 2007 (provided QR firms up its order for 60 A350s).

BTW- can anybody explain what the difference is between an option and a purchase right?


User currently offlineLeelaw From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 14, posted (7 years 11 months 1 day 15 hours ago) and read 17790 times:

Quoting Slz396 (Reply 13):
can anybody explain what the difference is between an option and a purchase right?

Option: the option-holder has a right to a specified delivery slot, usually in the form of a "right of first refusal."
Purchase Right: the right-holder's delivery slot is determined at the time the purchase right is exercised.

[Edited 2007-01-24 16:21:06]

User currently offlineAstuteman From United Kingdom, joined Jan 2005, 10236 posts, RR: 97
Reply 15, posted (7 years 11 months 1 day 15 hours ago) and read 17793 times:
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Quoting Leelaw (Reply 12):
Perhaps, if EK actually makes a firm order for 100 aircraft. My hunch is the "commitment" will be for 100 aircraft, but the firm order will probably be for 50 aircraft with options and/or purchase rights making up the balance.

Bearing a passing resemblance to the QF order, in that case..........

Regards


User currently offlineSlz396 From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 16, posted (7 years 11 months 1 day 15 hours ago) and read 17719 times:

Quoting Leelaw (Reply 14):
Option: the option-holder has a right to a specified delivery slot, usually in the form of a "right of first refusal."
Purchase Right: the right-holder's deliver slot is determined at the time the purchase right is exercised.

So in fact a purchase right is a very loose commitment?

Just my personal view, but purchase rights are just a way to pump up the total order number in the press release really.... if you don't commit to a possible delivery date, there really isn't anything distinguishing you from any other potential future customer.


User currently offlineBrendows From Norway, joined Apr 2006, 1020 posts, RR: 4
Reply 17, posted (7 years 11 months 1 day 15 hours ago) and read 17686 times:

Quoting Slz396 (Reply 16):
Just my personal view, but purchase rights are just a way to pump up the total order number in the press release really.... if you don't commit to a possible delivery date, there really isn't anything distinguishing you from any other potential future customer.

I wouldn't say so, you still got a purchase price similar to the one you negotiated for the firm orders.


User currently offlineSlz396 From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 18, posted (7 years 11 months 1 day 15 hours ago) and read 17592 times:

Quoting Brendows (Reply 17):
I wouldn't say so, you still got a purchase price similar to the one you negotiated for the firm orders.

Are you sure about that?

Because since there is no date linked to the purchase right, you could execute the right in let's say 15 years from now (at what time the price you suggest is pre-set will be rediculously low)

One could argue you'd have a very loose indicative price range when you have a purchase right, but then any customer who wants to firmly order a similar number of planes as are currently being granted purchase rights on is virtually guaranteed of a 40%+ list price reduction as well...

I repeat myself: purchase rights are just an invention of an overly active PR machine to prop up the number of the commitment without having to take options (which cost money).


User currently offlineBillReid From Netherlands, joined Jun 2006, 1041 posts, RR: 0
Reply 19, posted (7 years 11 months 1 day 15 hours ago) and read 17577 times:

Quoting Manni (Reply 2):
Emirates expects to take delivery of the first aircraft in 2012? How are they going to manage that if they choose the A350XWB, which is, according to the same article, due for 2013?

Sure sounds like a boeing decision has already been made.
I am sure skepticism exists, with the A350XWB givin that the financing to design in not yet in place with EADS. And the losses incurred by the A380.
Politically, the UAE government wants balance and thus it is Boeings turn for some significant orders.

I would be very very surprised with a A350 order given the polotics and the A380 fiasco.



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User currently offlineScouseflyer From United Kingdom, joined Apr 2006, 3402 posts, RR: 9
Reply 20, posted (7 years 11 months 1 day 15 hours ago) and read 17548 times:

Quoting BillReid (Reply 19):
Politically, the UAE government wants balance and thus it is Boeings turn for some significant orders.

56 copies of the T7 is pretty significant don't you think?


User currently offlineBillReid From Netherlands, joined Jun 2006, 1041 posts, RR: 0
Reply 21, posted (7 years 11 months 1 day 15 hours ago) and read 17365 times:

Quoting Scouseflyer (Reply 20):
56 copies of the T7 is pretty significant don't you think?

Good point. But the A380 has gotten more than its fair share of notariety, be it good or bad.

Boeing may sit in more favorable light given the A350 continous wavoring and the A380 debacle.



Some people don't get it. Business is about making MONEY!
User currently offlineDw747400 From United States of America, joined Aug 2001, 1265 posts, RR: 1
Reply 22, posted (7 years 11 months 1 day 14 hours ago) and read 17084 times:

Quoting Slz396 (Reply 18):
Because since there is no date linked to the purchase right, you could execute the right in let's say 15 years from now (at what time the price you suggest is pre-set will be rediculously low)

Long term deals like this are generally pegged to economic indicators to account for inflation and other price variations... I know from experience that some business jet manufacturers even peg their price for firm orders to the consumer price index.

Additionally, its perfectly reasonable to expect a time limit on the order. Options are definitely more than mere publicity stunts, though I'm not familiar enough with dealings on airliners to say exactly how much more!



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User currently offlineCobra27 From Slovenia, joined May 2001, 1033 posts, RR: 0
Reply 23, posted (7 years 11 months 1 day 14 hours ago) and read 17041 times:

I think has more chances because of its size 350 pax. Emirates likes bigger planes, they burn less. Seems they make a lot of money by the number of passengers (more then 400 in some 777-200ER) Even the enlarged 787 will only seat around 300 pax. But on the other way 787 will come way sooner, around 5 years before. Maybe they will order both

User currently offlineStitch From United States of America, joined Jul 2005, 31412 posts, RR: 85
Reply 24, posted (7 years 11 months 1 day 14 hours ago) and read 16876 times:
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The only way EK is going to get 100 787's starting in 2012 is if they already have slot deposits that they have been keeping up payments on while they wait for the A350/A350XWB program to evolve.

I'm not sure how one defines "mid-size", but I am guessing something in the A333/A343/A359X/787-9/787-10/772 range. However, "long range" negates the A333 and I cannot see EK taking the A343.

So that leaves the A350X-900, 787-9, 787-10, and 777-200LR. In theory, the three Boeing products are available in 2012 (the 772LR for sure, the 787-9 and 787-10 if EK has slots already in hand, with the additional caveat that Boeing can EIS the 787-10 in 2012).

EK may feel they can no longer wait to see what the A350XWB brings to the table as 787 slots continue to fill and will fill even faster if a successful test regimen happens this Summer.

However, EK can always add the A350XWB later (considering how fast they are expanding), so even if they do order the 787 in numbers up to 100, that doesn't mean the A350XWB will never fly in EK colors.


25 Post contains links and images Keesje : Yes, wonder what Airbus can possibly do to solve this problem.. View Large View MediumPhoto © Konstantin von Wedelstaedt
26 Kaneporta1 : This one could go either way. On one hand EK may not want to wait till 2013 for the 350, on the other hand it's not certain that Boeing can deliver mu
27 CV580Freak : When are the nearest delivery positions ???
28 Scouseflyer : That's a closely guarded secret - but there's over 400 787s on order and they're looking at something around 100 built a year initially at full chat
29 NYC777 : Heck if they need interim lift then they could always use the 77W. That type is becoming more prevalent in their fleet.
30 Post contains images Jacobin777 : Given they are looking for a 300 seater and EK's 2-class A330's have 284 seats, that might solve one of their situations....the 3-class A330's have 2
31 Post contains images Beech19 : Well... NEW delivery slots aren't available until 2014. I would wager EK already has slots lined up if they are talking delivery in 2012 and those wo
32 EI321 : Am I the only one that thinks they will order both?
33 Leelaw : IIRC, both Tim Clark and Sheik Maktoum have rule-out spliting this order a la SQ in several interviews over the last few months.
34 Post contains images Jacobin777 : Considering the vice-chairman of EK Flanagan stated "probably only one type", you are going to be in a small minority.....
35 Post contains images Beech19 : I thought so at first... but i think its less and less likely. It all depends on if they have slots already at Boeing. If they do they will take all
36 EI321 : Which would be a great way to reduce the initial price from the manufacturers. Let them fight it out, then order 50 of one and 50 of the other at a l
37 EI321 : So why are they looking for an offer from airbus? Either they have slots on 787s and are looking at getting A350s aswell, or they have no 787 slots.
38 Post contains images Beech19 : They may have slots but not firm orders... you can still negotiate prices after you own a slot. Pressure on Boeing... EK knows the business. They cou
39 EbbUK : I would be very happy to see the EK order go to Boeing. Curiously, I think the way that EK want separate compensation for 380 makes me think that the
40 Post contains images ZRHnerd : If EK will commit to the A350, i can see the "they got them for half the price"-kinda comments already
41 Post contains images EI321 : Nah would never happen So is 'we will only buy one or the other'!
42 Post contains images ZRHnerd : Looking at all the die-hard boeing fans on this website i can hardly believe that
43 Post contains images Beech19 : Could be. But i doubt it... i think we will see EK order 787-9/10's come early this summer. Saying something that could be considered fact and to be
44 Post contains images NYC777 : Oh I think that'll be talked up as we get closer to June and Paris!  [Edited 2007-01-24 20:10:00]
45 Post contains images Beech19 : Yeah... you are probably right. My mistake...
46 EI321 : Which one, BA?
47 Beech19 : I wish i could say... really...
48 NYC777 : No, it's an order by a North American carrier. Very large order for 787s.
49 EI321 : DL or AA both are obvious 787 customers!
50 Kaitak : I think we will see a lot of orders in the first half for the 787 (and of course, others too). I can see the 747-8 and 787-9/10 combination becoming q
51 Stitch : If you mean LH, we've been discussing it a great deal, just not lately.
52 Post contains images Beech19 : no... not them. What is the latest on the LH order anyways? I haven't heard anything new... whats the latest rumor churning?
53 Stitch : I thought March or so, but maybe they'll wait till LBG this summer.
54 Post contains links Leelaw : See: Interview With Philip Chen CEO Cathay Pacific (by Leelaw Jan 24 2007 in Civil Aviation)
55 EI321 : I doubt EI will order either any of these his year. We could be looking at just more A332's for years to come. Dont think they will need A350-1000s e
56 Post contains images Beech19 : I wonder if it will all come out at Paris... "undisclosed airline", LH & EK all at once. Maybe 250 aircraft? Wow... $40bil+ in orders all at once...
57 Christopherwoo : I'm sorry but some people are intelligent enough to figure out they are different aircraft. For all the airbus 380 bashing... It's one of the biggest
58 Beech19 : I would beg to differ... if Airbus expected problems like this they wouldn't have set the timeline they did. The aircraft is two years delayed becaus
59 Post contains images Glideslope : I disagree. I see the 1st low speed taxi tests easily by late 2015.
60 Post contains images Beech19 : Oh now come on... lets be serious; i'll give them late 2014.
61 Post contains images Molykote : My inclination would be to believe that the A350 would throw more unknowns into the mix than the (relatively conventional A380). Few people have acce
62 Christopherwoo : Most of the problems they had were to do with its sheer size (wing wasn't tough enough, wake problems, wiring because it was so big) etc
63 EI321 : Add to that the abilities of many airports to accomodate it.
64 T773ER : With the 787-10 yet to be officially launched, what are the chances of Boeing launching the 787-10 with a large order from EK on the very same day?
65 RICARIZA : Dude, 100 x 150million = 15 billion, the article is correct.
66 EI321 : Chances are that when it is launched, it will be accompanied by a large launch order by an airline like Emirates.
67 Manni : I'd appriciated if you left out 'Dude' in the future. Thanks. Nothing wrong with the math, assuming the listprice is US$150 million. What I was sayin
68 Post contains links Stitch : The 787-8 can be purchased for just south of $150 million US per http://www.boeing.com/commercial/prices/.
69 Manni : Yes Stitch (thanks for the link). But EK would no doubt go for the largest variant available. The 789 or, if Boeing is willing to commit, the 787-10.
70 Stitch : I agree, but I wonder if they might want some (but certainly not 100) 787-8s for some special long and thin routes. Of course, maybe the journalist j
71 Jacobin777 : which still doesn't address this issue...
72 ER757 : I have always thought, and still do, that this order will go to Airbus. Just a gut feeling. I think this would actually be a win-win for both A&B. Bef
73 Stitch : With EK's growth pattern, 100 planes could be just the beginning. Over the life of the program, the total could be many multiples of that. I am sure
74 AA777223 : I was thinking the exact same thing. I am assuming the article is based on list prices....Dude....there I said it.
75 AirLanka : Wonder whether part of this is destined for SriLankan. They urgently need to get their fleet renewal in place to ensure business continuity. Cheers, A
76 Baron95 : I'm late to this thread, but in case it hasn't been answered previously, in a nut shell, option guarantees price and delivery date/slot, purchase rig
77 Baron95 : Not necessarily. The order can be a combined order, starting with 787 deliveries in 2012, complemented by A350. I can very well see a 787-9R/-10 comb
78 Baron95 : I agree. The A380 was designed and developed on Airbus' terms. They had no time presure to launch. They had no competitor in the market the closest t
79 Baron95 : Mani, IIRC Boeing's list prices include engines and other third-party items (standard interior ???). Remove those for the 789 and US$150M is in the r
80 Post contains images Baron95 : Not so, Stitch. Boeing for sure, and Airbus likely, are very concerned about the quality of their backlog. Boeing would be extremelly nervous, if, to
81 Post contains images Manni : Then you too should reread my post instead of correcting it. I wasn't arguing that 100 times US$150 million is US$15 billion, I'm argueing wether US$
82 Baron95 : You have a point - plus I don't think a reporter would be that sophisticated to start removing items and doing the math. They just heard/saw that a 7
83 EvilForce : Is it just me or does Emirates sound like a client from hell? Everytime I hear their CEO running his mouth I just wonder if he's that much of a windba
84 Post contains links NAV20 : Guess they are - but Airbus appears to be the supplier from purgatory. This appears to account for 12 of the 100 orders - extra 777-300ERs (a direct
85 PanAmOldDC8 : Just hope they don't expand too quickly as happened to Wardair in Canada, they went and bought a lot of new airplanes and couldn't pay for them or fi
86 Post contains links Manni : For the time being this report is being denied by Emirates. http://www.gulf-news.com/business/Aviation/10099339.html
87 Astuteman : These are the places they're planning to fly the A380 to??? Regards
88 RichardPrice : The A380 would have freed up equipment to fly to those places.
89 Jacobin777 : Of course while no situation is static, according to the Bloomberg video interview with Flanagan, he said that it's going in one direction... Sure, a
90 Post contains images NAV20 : They probably don't want Boeing taking the hint and adding a nought or two to the asking prices. I'd hate to be on the Airbus end of the compensation
91 Manni : Interesting question. I have no idea. ANA's order for 50 787s would be one of the contenders for largest single order in $ value IMO, altough 30 of t
92 Post contains images Manni : Sure. Perhaps Mr. Al Makhtoum should give Mr. Flanagan the sack for dropping the hint anyway.
93 Post contains images Stitch : Yes, but EK is unlikely to order 400 planes in one fell swoop. If EK choose the 787, they'd order 100 to begin with. Would that be 100 firm orders, o
94 AA777223 : Calm down. I read your post. it was just a joke.
95 Post contains images RICARIZA : Sorry, can't do, that's the way I "talk".
96 Post contains links T773ER : On United's website, it states that they had a 22 billion dollar order in 1990, the largest ever. Approximately 32.721 billion adjusted for inflation
97 Baron95 : I'm assuming that is the 777 order right?
98 Manni : United placed an order for 16 772s and 7 744s on october the 15th. The value mentioned on their website probably includes options etc, as these 23 ai
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