Sponsor Message:
Civil Aviation Forum
My Starred Topics | Profile | New Topic | Forum Index | Help | Search 
Risk Of A New Aviaton Crisis (?)  
User currently offlineLHStarAlliance From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Posted (7 years 10 months 1 week 6 days 13 hours ago) and read 2769 times:

Hello,

Sometime ago I was speaking with a Pilot who said me that mostly all 4-6 years there is a Aviation Crisis . (Is this true?)

For example the 2001 crisis after 9/11 and many more...

I presume many of these crises are not as bad as the 2001 crises .

Now the aviation is booming.

But how high is the risk to have another crisis in the next years ?

Thanks for your answers !

Konstantin

34 replies: All unread, showing first 25:
 
User currently offlineMagyarorszag From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 1, posted (7 years 10 months 1 week 6 days 13 hours ago) and read 2712 times:

Quoting LHStarAlliance (Thread starter):
But how high is the risk to have another crisis in the next years ?

Well if that (cover picture to the left) really happens, it could produce the next major crisis for the airlines industry.

When Irak invaded Kuwait in 1990, that was the starting point of difficult years for the airlines.


User currently offlineLHStarAlliance From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 2, posted (7 years 10 months 1 week 6 days 13 hours ago) and read 2704 times:

Quoting Magyarorszag (Reply 1):
Well if that (cover picture to the left) really happens, it could produce the next major crisis for the airlines industry.

I agree , but I doubt this´ll happen , European Governments would not allow it .


User currently offlinePavlovsDog From Norway, joined Sep 2005, 661 posts, RR: 0
Reply 3, posted (7 years 10 months 1 week 6 days 13 hours ago) and read 2704 times:

I think the economic cycle is the most typical cause of aviation crisis. How much longer will the US lead debt spending fueled economy keep the global economy going.

I fear that when the housing price crash finally hits the US you'll see massive overcapacity, especially in the Middle East and China. The US majors' problems the past five years may actually be a blessing in disguise since they have very few aircraft on order and will be in a position to acquire relatively new aircraft in large numbers inexpensively in a few years.


User currently offlineSrbmod From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 4, posted (7 years 10 months 1 week 6 days 13 hours ago) and read 2687 times:

Before 9/11, some say the crisis was a looming shortage of pilots because there were quite a few pilots at many of the major airlines approaching the mandatory retirement age. I knew some guys who quit their jobs and went to flight school because at the time, folks thought that the airlines would replenish their ranks with pilots from the regional airlines and there would be spots opening up at the regional airlines as a result. 9/11 put that to bed to an extent as many pilots that were already nearing retirement age took the early retirement option airlines gave in order to stave off layoffs in the pilot ranks.

Some are saying the next crisis could be with ATC. The FAA has quite a few controllers who are reaching the ends of the their careers (There is no mandatory retirement age, but there is a max number of years a controller can work the screens.). Some of the issues with ATC popped up in the aftermath of the Comair crash @ LEX. The FAA is trying to cope with staff shortages at some airports while at the same time trying to hire new controllers so they can be ready to go once the first wave of mass retirements hit in a few years.

Some say that the pilot's shortage that was predicted earlier in the decade could be looming again in the next few years as well.


User currently offlineMagyarorszag From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 5, posted (7 years 10 months 1 week 6 days 13 hours ago) and read 2657 times:

Quoting LHStarAlliance (Reply 2):
I agree , but I doubt this´ll happen , European Governments would not allow it .

I have my doubt too, but the journalist says:Nonetheless, and despite Mr Gates's calming words, Iran and America are heading for a collision. Although the risk is hard to quantify, there exists a real possibility that George Bush will order a military strike on Iran some time before he leaves the White House two years from now.

Quoting PavlovsDog (Reply 3):
I think the economic cycle is the most typical cause of aviation crisis. How much longer will the US lead debt spending fueled economy keep the global economy going.

I agree, but is the US still has important as it was now that China is going ahead at full steam ?


User currently offlinePavlovsDog From Norway, joined Sep 2005, 661 posts, RR: 0
Reply 6, posted (7 years 10 months 1 week 6 days 12 hours ago) and read 2629 times:

Quoting Magyarorszag (Reply 5):
I agree, but is the US still has important as it was now that China is going ahead at full steam ?

Maybe even more so. While China has a lot of internal growth in large part the motor driving the economy is exports, largely to the US. The US economy is highly leveraged both in the public and private sectors. Housing price increases have outpaced wage growth for the past 15 years. Banks have had a very liberal mortgage policy and things are very fragile for an entire generation of the population who are highly leveraged. This housing bubble is already starting to burst. Florida is apparently leading the way.


User currently offlineLHStarAlliance From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 7, posted (7 years 10 months 1 week 6 days 12 hours ago) and read 2610 times:

Quoting Magyarorszag (Reply 5):
Although the risk is hard to quantify, there exists a real possibility that George Bush will order a military strike on Iran some time before he leaves the White House two years from now.

He´s a lame duck now , AFAIK he needs the OK of the Congress to start a War.

To the topic:

Quoting PavlovsDog (Reply 3):
especially in the Middle East and China.

would be Specially bad for EK.

A new Crisis would hit specially the Chapter 11 airlines like NW or DL I doubt this Airlines could survive another crisis , that´s maybe what Doug Parker thinks...


User currently offlineAndesSMF From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 8, posted (7 years 10 months 1 week 6 days 12 hours ago) and read 2595 times:

Quoting PavlovsDog (Reply 6):
This housing bubble is already starting to burst. Florida is apparently leading the way.

Started in mid-2005, finally getting a little traction now. But remember that this is a worldwide problem, not just the US. Australia is already dealing with the after effects.

Aviation is always cyclical, especially since you have to make future projections to conduct your business, and the decisions made take a while to take effect.

Will another aviation crisis come again?

Is the sky blue?

There is your answer.


User currently offlineTeamAmerica From United States of America, joined Sep 2006, 1761 posts, RR: 23
Reply 9, posted (7 years 10 months 1 week 6 days 12 hours ago) and read 2588 times:

Quoting Magyarorszag (Reply 1):
Well if that (cover picture to the left) really happens

Just post the photo, it's tiny:



Quoting LHStarAlliance (Reply 2):
I doubt this´ll happen , European Governments would not allow it .

It's not a matter of "allowing" it, it's a matter of preventing it. I pray that the EU will take sufficient action to make such an act unnecessary, and then we won't need to debate it.

Besides, that's hardly the most likely scenario for creating an aviation crisis. Let's talk about a collapse in Iraq and loss of that oil supply, or an oil embargo by Venezuela or others, or hurricanes in the Gulf of Mexico...any of those could send fuel prices soaring and simultaneously tank the western economies while making airline operating costs untenable.

We also could see a major SARS breakout, or Bird Flu, or whatever. Another major terrorist attack is inevitable. Even if none of those things happens, a "normal" economic downturn of some severity is a given. Something's gotta give; it's just a question of what, where, and when. spin 



Failure is not an option; it's an outcome.
User currently offlinePavlovsDog From Norway, joined Sep 2005, 661 posts, RR: 0
Reply 10, posted (7 years 10 months 1 week 6 days 12 hours ago) and read 2590 times:

Quoting LHStarAlliance (Reply 7):
He´s a lame duck now , AFAIK he needs the OK of the Congress to start a War.

In theory yes, he does need Congress. He seems to be pretty good at getting US politicians to believe his lies though. Very few at the UN took the bait when Colin Powell presented his case. Congress, on the other hand, went for it. Hook, line and sinker.

There's a lot of pork involved in war and American politicians love pork. By the time they're out of office living high off the hog another generation and inflation will be paying for their past transgressions.

By the way. Who says Washington will start a war with Iran? It's a lot more convenient to use a pretense. The Iranians need an devil in Washington just as much as Bush and the Neo-cons need a fundamentalist rogue state in Teheran.

PS. Where's Osama?


User currently offlineLHStarAlliance From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 11, posted (7 years 10 months 1 week 6 days 12 hours ago) and read 2570 times:

Quoting TeamAmerica (Reply 9):
Something's gotta give; it's just a question of what, where, and when.

That´s completely right !

Quoting TeamAmerica (Reply 9):
It's not a matter of "allowing" it, it's a matter of preventing it. I pray that the EU will take sufficient action to make such an act unnecessary, and then we won't need to debate it.

Hope the negotiations in Munich Tomorrow help to persuade Iran to stop this program .


User currently offlineLHStarAlliance From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 12, posted (7 years 10 months 1 week 6 days 12 hours ago) and read 2549 times:

Quoting PavlovsDog (Reply 10):
He seems to be pretty good at getting US politicians to believe his lies though.

Not anymore , the Democrats would use an Iran war as publicity for the polls . If Bush attacks Iran Hillary (or Obama )is president.,

But the Weapon Lobby will do all the possible to persuade Bush to attack Iran.

Quoting PavlovsDog (Reply 10):
PS. Where's Osama?

Somewhere in Pakistan protected by the Pakistan Military

I suggest you this movie (pretty famous):

http://video.google.de/videoplay?doc...31398516462334&q=Fahrenheit+9%2F11

[Edited 2007-02-09 22:27:47]

User currently offlineElectech6299 From United States of America, joined Aug 2005, 616 posts, RR: 3
Reply 13, posted (7 years 10 months 1 week 6 days 11 hours ago) and read 2496 times:

Quoting LHStarAlliance (Reply 7):
He´s a lame duck now , AFAIK he needs the OK of the Congress to start a War.

War is indeed an act of Congress, but a military strike can be ordered by Executive Order at any time for "national security" reasons. As a lame duck, he may not have much influence in Congress, but he doesn't care about the polls, and he still retains Executive powers. From the day of inauguration to the day of the inauguration of the next President in January of '09, he is the Commander in Cheif and can order military action, whether or not Congress knows about it or votes on a national war policy. He is required to go before the full Congress and inform them of any military actions (IIRC, within 72 hours, if the actions have not already been considered and approved by the Armed Services Committees of both houses.) If he is judged to have abused his Executive Priviledge, he could be subject to impeachment for grand jury investigation. But his orders will be followed.   

So the terrifying B2 image is quite possible, on any given day, up until the third week in January of 2009.

Of course if Bush takes such action and Iran "unilaterally" declares war in response, there is an automatic presumption that the NATO and other war treaties in place would govern the response, and only then would the EU have any authoritative role. So I agree with TeamAmerica, the key will be in preventing this occurence by enforcing the UN and NATO resolutions already in place, promoting multi-party negotiations, and putting pressure on suppliers and sympathizers.

In any instance, this would have an immediate negative impact on aviation, from the obvious consequences on Middle Eastern aviation and int'l routes to the Middle East, to the increased security measures and inevitable terrorist response from Iran sympathizers.

Do I see this as "THE" serious threat to aviation? Again, I agree with TeamAmerica, not likely. I am convinced that the most serious immediate and long term threat to aviation is communicable disease outbreak.   fever 

As to the 4-6 year cycle? To me that involves regional economics and shifts in the global market. What's a blessing for some is a curse for others, and we will likely see some selling of spares from one part of the world to another in the near future. Which ones?.....Uh, my crystal ball is cloudy right now, so I'll have to let you know later.  

[Edited 2007-02-09 22:58:44]


Send not to know for whom the bell tolls...it tolls for thee
User currently offlineTeamAmerica From United States of America, joined Sep 2006, 1761 posts, RR: 23
Reply 14, posted (7 years 10 months 1 week 6 days 11 hours ago) and read 2492 times:

Quoting LHStarAlliance (Reply 7):
AFAIK he needs the OK of the Congress to start a War.



Quoting PavlovsDog (Reply 10):
In theory yes, he does need Congress.

Actually, the Congress only possesses the power to declare war. Actual authority over the US armed forces lies with the President (that's what the oft-used term "Commander in Chief" refers to).

The POTUS needs congressional authority in a legal sense, but in the sense of physical restraint (and speaking only of conventional weapons) there isn't any. Regarding nuclear weapons, the exact authorities for release are not publicly known and have never been openly contested in a court of law. Most people assume that the President "has his finger on the button" but my strictly unofficial understanding is that the President cannot use nuclear weapons without prior consent, except during periods of national crisis where such authority is predelegated. In other words, a preemptive nuclear strike requires approval from Congress, but a retaliation strike does not.



Failure is not an option; it's an outcome.
User currently offlineColeplane From United States of America, joined Jan 2007, 172 posts, RR: 0
Reply 15, posted (7 years 10 months 1 week 6 days 5 hours ago) and read 2371 times:

Quoting LHStarAlliance (Reply 7):
He´s a lame duck now

Cool, it's as though I'm listening to ABC, CBS, NBC, MSNBC, and CNN all at once!  cloudnine 

Quoting PavlovsDog (Reply 10):
He seems to be pretty good at getting US politicians to believe his lies though.

Lies about what? It's about the economy! Oh yeah, that no longer applies.

Quoting Electech6299 (Reply 13):
he doesn't care about the polls

Thank God for that. Thank God for that. Sorry, thought it twice but only meant to type it once.

In case you've overlooked it, Israel doesn't have the option of waiting to see what happens with Iran or they'll cease to exist. But what the hell, it's only a nation right?



"About a nine on the tension scale there Rupe."
User currently offlineColeplane From United States of America, joined Jan 2007, 172 posts, RR: 0
Reply 16, posted (7 years 10 months 1 week 6 days 3 hours ago) and read 2312 times:

Now that I've had an hour to watch FOX NEWS and cool off...

We're all in this forum because we share a common passion for aviation. For me, this association makes you a friend. Use caution when criticising anyone (including but not limited to leaders of countries) and consider keeping the dialogue non-political unless directly tied to the subject.
 ouch 



"About a nine on the tension scale there Rupe."
User currently offlinePlanesNTrains From United States of America, joined Feb 2005, 5792 posts, RR: 28
Reply 17, posted (7 years 10 months 1 week 6 days 3 hours ago) and read 2296 times:

Quoting PavlovsDog (Reply 10):
He seems to be pretty good at getting US politicians to believe his lies though.

I think it's time to take this discussion to non-Av, or steer it back to something other than a political bash session.

-Dave



Next Trip: SEA-ABQ-SEA on Alaska
User currently offlineSilentbob From United States of America, joined Aug 2006, 2176 posts, RR: 1
Reply 18, posted (7 years 10 months 1 week 6 days 3 hours ago) and read 2289 times:

Quoting TeamAmerica (Reply 9):
I pray that the EU will take sufficient action to make such an act unnecessary, and then we won't need to debate it.

Don't hold your breath, some of those nations have been busy selling embargoed technology to Iran.

Quoting TeamAmerica (Reply 9):
Besides, that's hardly the most likely scenario for creating an aviation crisis. Let's talk about a collapse in Iraq and loss of that oil supply, or an oil embargo by Venezuela or others, or hurricanes in the Gulf of Mexico...any of those could send fuel prices soaring and simultaneously tank the western economies while making airline operating costs untenable.

We also could see a major SARS breakout, or Bird Flu, or whatever. Another major terrorist attack is inevitable. Even if none of those things happens, a "normal" economic downturn of some severity is a given. Something's gotta give; it's just a question of what, where, and when.

These things are far more likely to have an impact on aviation fortunes than another military action in the middle east.


User currently offlineLHStarAlliance From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 19, posted (7 years 10 months 1 week 5 days 23 hours ago) and read 2231 times:

Quoting PlanesNTrains (Reply 17):
I think it's time to take this discussion to non-Av, or steer it back to something other than a political bash session.

I Agree

Quoting TeamAmerica (Reply 14):
Actually, the Congress only possesses the power to declare war. Actual authority over the US armed forces lies with the President (that's what the oft-used term "Commander in Chief" refers to).

Ok but he could not attack Iran without having the congress declared war , so at the end the military to Attack Iran needs the approval. The Prs. could say what he want but without the approval no war .

Quoting Electech6299 (Reply 13):
As to the 4-6 year cycle? To me that involves regional economics and shifts in the global market. What's a blessing for some is a curse for others

#
For example we maybe´ll see a collapse of the Chinese stock exchanges which could end in a economic crisis in the Far east .
Or the under valuation of the yuan , if the Chinese government changes this it could affect the exports resulting also in crisis .(same for Japan)

There are many possible Crisis but I see it coming now out of Asia .(economic crises )

Konstantin


User currently offlinePhilb From Ireland, joined May 1999, 2915 posts, RR: 13
Reply 20, posted (7 years 10 months 1 week 5 days 22 hours ago) and read 2203 times:

Quoting Coleplane (Reply 16):
We're all in this forum because we share a common passion for aviation. For me, this association makes you a friend. Use caution when criticising anyone (including but not limited to leaders of countries) and consider keeping the dialogue non-political unless directly tied to the subject.

In other words, don't say anything that may approximate to a criticism of my country, its leader or its politicians in case it isn't acceptable to the minds of those who have been brainwashed by the likes of Fox News, Rush Limbaugh and the other neo-con mouthpieces who twist the truth and have never understood the meaning of the word "balance"


User currently offlineCoal From United States of America, joined Aug 2006, 2127 posts, RR: 10
Reply 21, posted (7 years 10 months 1 week 5 days 22 hours ago) and read 2190 times:

Quoting PavlovsDog (Reply 6):
Florida is apparently leading the way.

See below

Quoting AndesSMF (Reply 8):
Started in mid-2005, finally getting a little traction now. But remember that this is a worldwide problem, not just the US. Australia is already dealing with the after effects.

 checkmark  Go to any major city in the world and you will see lots of half-finished business. The flip side is that it's a great time to buy a place, rent it out for a few years, and sell it when prices pick up again. Gotta love economics!

Cheers,
Coal



Nxt Flts: SQ SYD-SIN-DEL-SIN-SYD | VA SYD-DPS-SYD
User currently offlineColeplane From United States of America, joined Jan 2007, 172 posts, RR: 0
Reply 22, posted (7 years 10 months 1 week 5 days 18 hours ago) and read 2112 times:

Quoting Philb (Reply 20):
In other words, don't say anything that may approximate to a criticism of my country, its leader or its politicians in case it isn't acceptable to the minds of those who have been brainwashed by the likes of Fox News, Rush Limbaugh and the other neo-con mouthpieces who twist the truth and have never understood the meaning of the word "balance"

If your intent is to insult, there's plenty of other venues for that.

Quoting PlanesNTrains (Reply 17):
I think it's time to take this discussion to non-Av, or steer it back to something other than a political bash session.

 checkmark 

Quoting Electech6299 (Reply 13):
I am convinced that the most serious immediate and long term threat to aviation is communicable disease outbreak.

No question a serious (and very scary) threat. I'm not aware of any microbiological grounding incidents, are you? Air travel has added a whole new dimension to the threat levels of virulent microbes. And you're correct, some unkown virus rears it's ugly head and the entire aviation community could be in deep, deep trouble. Want a frightening read - Laurie Garrett's "The Coming Plague." Interesting topic, hope to see another thread on it.



"About a nine on the tension scale there Rupe."
User currently offlinePhilb From Ireland, joined May 1999, 2915 posts, RR: 13
Reply 23, posted (7 years 10 months 1 week 5 days 18 hours ago) and read 2090 times:

Quoting Coleplane (Reply 22):
If your intent is to insult, there's plenty of other venues for that

Please explain to a native English speaker just what you find "insulting". Is it that you can't abide anyone having a different viewpoint.

YOU made some very political points in your first post, in your second you decided that you didn't want to argue politics and had the brass neck to tell people exactly how they should frame their posts. "Use caution...." etc.

No doubt you believe in free speech (as long as it agrees with your ideas) and the right to express an opinion (as long as it coincides with yours).

Bush and many of his followers, including the idiot from Idaho who appeared on British TV the other night and stated on camera that the British and Europeans had sucked their thumbs during WW2 and needed to get on board the war on terror, wouldn't know the truth if it hit them between their eyes.




.


User currently offlineIkramerica From United States of America, joined May 2005, 21580 posts, RR: 59
Reply 24, posted (7 years 10 months 1 week 5 days 18 hours ago) and read 2066 times:

Quoting Magyarorszag (Reply 5):
Nonetheless, and despite Mr Gates's calming words, Iran and America are heading for a collision. Although the risk is hard to quantify, there exists a real possibility that George Bush will order a military strike on Iran some time before he leaves the White House two years from now.

The USA has been at war with Iran for at least 2 years now, if not longer. Iran has been directly attacking USA troops in Iraq and supplying equipment and training to others in the country.

As for the EU "not allowing" anything, they already are "allowing" it by their softline stance on nuclear technology, along with Russia. Iran has absolutely no need for nuclear power. They burn off ridiculous amounts of natural gas at the well heads, more than any other nation, and enough to supply the entire country with electricity. Nuclear generators cost ten times the price of a gas turbine, but that's half the problem. The EU wants to sell expensive nuclear generator components to Iran, and thus are doing everything they can to help them get there, even though everyone and his brother knows that Iran is after bombs, not energy.

Unless the EU and UN stops appeasing and selling to Islamofascist leaders, they will cause conflicts. "Not allowing" conflict is in their hands right now. They could present a unified front to Iran, but the current stance makes their leader some sort of cult hero. But I guess it's easiest to facilitate all of this, then blame Bush, just like with Iraq. The Iraq war never had to happen. All it would have taken was the UN and EU to stand up against him instead of supporting him through covert business in hopes that there would be plum business contracts in the future...



Of all the things to worry about... the Wookie has no pants.
25 TeamAmerica : That's not exactly right. The President could attack Iran without any consultation whatsoever, but he can't wage "war" in the legal sense. What exact
26 Philb : Utter rubbish. The "reason" Bush used for attacking Iraq was weapons of mass destruction (which didn't exist). This was a cover because Rumsfeld and
27 Coleplane : You've made a broad generalization about me with little knowledge. I am in FACT, not pleased with many, many aspects of my current president. Regardi
28 Philb : This will be a little OT but may help to show where I, and I believe many others, are coming from. Fair enough, I accept your statement and I didn't
29 Coleplane : Philb: Your right, we don't always get to hear about our country from an outsider. We have friends from Bobingen, Germany and it's always interesting
30 MD80fanatic : Oh man, there's that neocon buzzword again.
31 Post contains images TeamAmerica : That makes no sense. Bush 41 had an army rolling to Baghdad in 1991 and chose to stop (wisely so). The idea that Bush 43 was trying to accomplish som
32 LHStarAlliance : Haha strange this thread has not been deleted yet ... This war was just a Lobby war for Halliburton and the Armament Industry ...
33 PlanesNTrains : Give me a break #1. You appear to speak for 300,000,000 people, none of whom could possibly be misguided or misinformed? Give me a break #2. The curr
34 Srbmod : I'm not ANCFlyer, but I will swoop in and lock this thread because it turned from an interesting concept into a Non-Av political discussion.
Top Of Page
Forum Index

This topic is archived and can not be replied to any more.

Printer friendly format

Similar topics:More similar topics...
Construction Halted On Part Of New IND Terminal posted Thu Jan 25 2007 09:15:24 by Indy
Video Of New American Airlines Business Class posted Tue Jan 16 2007 05:30:17 by Gh123
Use Of New RWY At SIN Parallel To 02R? posted Tue Dec 26 2006 06:21:56 by BOACVC10
Air India Wetlease 767 Pics Of New Colourscheme posted Sat Dec 23 2006 06:35:23 by Karan69
First Pic Of New Pilatus PC-12 Glass Cockpit. posted Sat Dec 16 2006 16:14:44 by Boeing Nut
UA Provides Sneak Preview Of New Premium Product posted Sat Dec 9 2006 22:19:39 by Laxintl
Any Thought Of New EUG Service? posted Wed Nov 29 2006 07:44:24 by B6WNQX
Video Of New British Airways Club World. posted Mon Nov 20 2006 03:24:57 by Gh123
Chance Of New Airlines At BUR? posted Tue Nov 14 2006 21:35:57 by YOW
MP Of New BKK A/P? Spotting In BKK posted Fri Nov 10 2006 11:35:07 by Amir