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How Much Longer Will We See Quads In Pax Service?  
User currently offlineCchan From New Zealand, joined May 2003, 1759 posts, RR: 2
Posted (7 years 5 months 1 week 3 days 14 hours ago) and read 3968 times:

Except for the A380, other quads (A340, B747) are receiving very few orders. The question is, how long will the A340 and B747 production line remain open? With the rollout of A350 and B787, it will probably make it worse for the quads?

Existing B744s, A342/3s BAe146s and Avro RJs are slowly being retired from major airlines, at some point, will it come to a stage when trying to get on a quad is as hard as trying to get on a L1011 at present?

My guess is by 2025, most passenger quads will be A380s, with a few rare examples of the others operating in the developing world.

What are people's thoughts on this?

5 replies: All unread, jump to last
 
User currently offlineAA1818 From Trinidad and Tobago, joined Feb 2006, 3429 posts, RR: 4
Reply 1, posted (7 years 5 months 1 week 3 days 14 hours ago) and read 3950 times:

Until at least 2030- A380 pax entry is about 2008 and 748i entry is about 2009. Each frame should last about 20 years given the relatively low cycles that would be undertaken by each. Quads are not going anywhere anytime soon!!!!!!

Totally Tropical
AA1818



“The moment you doubt whether you can fly, you cease for ever to be able to do it.” J.M. Barrie (Peter Pan)
User currently offlineLeskova From Germany, joined Oct 2003, 6075 posts, RR: 70
Reply 2, posted (7 years 5 months 1 week 3 days 14 hours ago) and read 3902 times:

Quoting Cchan (Thread starter):
Except for the A380, other quads (A340, B747) are receiving very few orders.

The A380 isn't currently raking in orders either, nonetheless, I expect both the A380 and the B748 to receive a couple of orders each year...

Quoting Cchan (Thread starter):
With the rollout of A350 and B787, it will probably make it worse for the quads?

Not really - it just cements the situation that's been here for quite some time now: most orders in the last couple of years have already gone to twins.

Quoting Cchan (Thread starter):
Existing B744s, A342/3s BAe146s and Avro RJs are slowly being retired from major airlines

LH has just recently stocked up on BAe146s, and I don't really see too many B744s or A343s heading to the desert anytime soon...

Quoting Cchan (Thread starter):
will it come to a stage when trying to get on a quad is as hard as trying to get on a L1011 at present?

At some point, clearly, it will. But it'll still be another couple of decades - I absolutely agree with this:

Quoting AA1818 (Reply 1):
Quads are not going anywhere anytime soon!!!!!!

Pretty much sums up my opinion.  Smile



Smile - it confuses people!
User currently offlineCrazyHorse From Austria, joined Nov 2005, 328 posts, RR: 0
Reply 3, posted (7 years 5 months 1 week 3 days 14 hours ago) and read 3869 times:

Quoting Cchan (Thread starter):
Except for the A380, other quads (A340, B747) are receiving very few orders. The question is, how long will the A340 and B747 production line remain open? With the rollout of A350 and B787, it will probably make it worse for the quads?

The B747-8 had a great last year with a bunch of order and a fantastic launch customer with Lufthansa for their pax version. I think we will see a few small order for both aircrafts (A380, B747-8) this year and at least one great order from BA with more than 20 units per aircrafts.

Quoting Cchan (Thread starter):
Existing B744s, A342/3s BAe146s and Avro RJs are slowly being retired from major airlines, at some point, will it come to a stage when trying to get on a quad is as hard as trying to get on a L1011 at present?

Maybe in 50 years, but how know´s that? I think Quad´s like the A380 and also the B747-8i will have a long future in the international aviation business. These new models will fly at least 20 - 25 years for their first customer and then this aircrafts will move to cargo operator or charter operator.

Quoting Cchan (Thread starter):
My guess is by 2025, most passenger quads will be A380s, with a few rare examples of the others operating in the developing world.

Fly or drive to FRA in 2025 and you will find an airport full of B747-8 and A380 in Lufthansa colours.


User currently offlineEK413 From Australia, joined Nov 2003, 4872 posts, RR: 4
Reply 4, posted (7 years 5 months 1 week 3 days 11 hours ago) and read 3701 times:

Quoting Leskova (Reply 2):
LH has just recently stocked up on BAe146s, and I don't really see too many B744s or A343s heading to the desert anytime soon...

Well considering a lucrative carriers such as LH has gone ahead as a launche carrier and ordered the B747-8Intercontinental I dont see the quads dissappearing anytime soon...

EK4113



Good evening, ladies and gentlemen. We are tonight’s entertainment!
User currently offlineSinlock From United States of America, joined Dec 2000, 1637 posts, RR: 2
Reply 5, posted (7 years 5 months 1 week 3 days 9 hours ago) and read 3565 times:

I'd say that until the industry transitions to a Blended Wing Body, well see quads for quite some time. But after that it will be twin and triple engined aircraft.


My Country can beat up your Country....
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