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Boeing Hints IB May Be A 747-8I Customer  
User currently offlineSKY1 From Spain, joined Apr 2006, 879 posts, RR: 4
Posted (7 years 4 months 1 week 4 days 12 hours ago) and read 13393 times:

From Boeing.es:

Airplanes in the Boeing 737 size range will account for 70 percent of all commercial jetliners delivered to Spanish airlines over the next 20 years. Fifteen to sixteen percent will be twin-aisle airplanes like the Boeing 777 and 787. Eleven percent will be smaller regional jets while the Boeing 747 size or larger represents three to four percent of the market


Los aviones de pasillo único del tamaño del Boeing 737 sumarán el 70% de todos los reactores comerciales entregados a las aerolíneas españolas en los próximos 20 años. Entre un 15 y un 16% serán aviones de doble pasillo como el Boeing 777 y 787. El 11% serán reactores regionales más pequeños, mientras que la categoría del Boeing 747 o tamaño superior representa entre un 3 y un 4% del mercado



Since A380 is too big for IB, I see this Boeing forecast like dropping a hint to IB.

Obviously, neither UX nor JK don't need a 747 airliner size.


In English: Boeing Projects $36 Billion Market for New Airplanes in Spain

In Spanish: Boeing Estima en 36.000 Millones de Dólares el Mercado Español de Aviones Nuevos


Time flies! Enjoy life!
58 replies: All unread, showing first 25:
 
User currently offlineCorey07850 From United States of America, joined Feb 2004, 2525 posts, RR: 5
Reply 1, posted (7 years 4 months 1 week 4 days 12 hours ago) and read 13324 times:

I think you're stretching a bit here...

User currently offlineSKY1 From Spain, joined Apr 2006, 879 posts, RR: 4
Reply 2, posted (7 years 4 months 1 week 4 days 11 hours ago) and read 13261 times:

No.

Even IB is saying for some routes the A346 is a bit small. They need, at least 4 or 6 bigger planes than the exiting Iberia's largest aircraft.



Time flies! Enjoy life!
User currently offlineEI321 From Iraq, joined Jul 2009, 0 posts, RR: 0
Reply 3, posted (7 years 4 months 1 week 4 days 11 hours ago) and read 13243 times:

............And I was all excited whan I saw the title!

User currently offlineSKY1 From Spain, joined Apr 2006, 879 posts, RR: 4
Reply 4, posted (7 years 4 months 1 week 4 days 11 hours ago) and read 13128 times:

Quoting EI321 (Reply 3):
And I was all excited whan I saw the title!

Did I say IB will buy the 747-8I for sure?  Yeah sure

This is a forecast from Boeing for the Spanish Market. IF they (Boeing) are saying for the SPANISH Market "Boeing 747 size or larger represents three to four percent" ...what might you think? That forecast is for UX?

IF Boeing believes there is 0 chance they will say nothing for sure. And again: IB has said many many times the A380 are too large. I don't know IB will buy any 747-8I, but I believe there are more chances to see 747-8 with IB colours before A380.



Time flies! Enjoy life!
User currently offlineNYC777 From United States of America, joined Jun 2004, 5731 posts, RR: 48
Reply 5, posted (7 years 4 months 1 week 4 days 11 hours ago) and read 13030 times:

I think Boeing has a better chance with the 787 at IB than the 748I.


That which does not kill me makes me stronger.
User currently offlineDutchjet From Netherlands, joined Oct 2000, 7864 posts, RR: 57
Reply 6, posted (7 years 4 months 1 week 4 days 11 hours ago) and read 13011 times:

Interesting piece......but the fact that Boeing projects that 3 to 4 percent of new airplanes for the Spanish market will be 747 sized (or larger) does not lead me to believe that IB will be ordering the 748I any time soon. Sorry, I just dont see the connection.

User currently offlineSKY1 From Spain, joined Apr 2006, 879 posts, RR: 4
Reply 7, posted (7 years 4 months 1 week 4 days 10 hours ago) and read 12833 times:

The forecasts % in annual traffic growth must be also taken into account. According to Boeing during 2005-2025 the most natural IB market, Europe-LatinAmerica will grow 5,1% per year ...I remember IB is the leader on this market

http://www.boeing.es/website_2/pages...e_17003/uploads/CMO%20final(6).pdf (page 8)

It's in Spanish language, but it's easy to understand as there are many figures.

Honestly, I don't think IB will have on the mid-term (within 3 or 5 years) an unique A-340 fleet for the long-haul market. And I don't think nobody believe such thing.

[Edited 2007-03-16 03:15:40]


Time flies! Enjoy life!
User currently offlineLTU932 From Germany, joined Jan 2006, 13864 posts, RR: 50
Reply 8, posted (7 years 4 months 1 week 4 days 9 hours ago) and read 12646 times:

I would have thought IB would rather look into the A380, but given their apparent interest in the 747-8I, I presume even the A380 is too big for them. I do like how "Boeing 747-856I" would sound.  Wink

It would be nice to see the 747 make a comeback at IB. I could see it serve Central America (especially SJO and PTY, the perhaps two biggest Central American markets) in the future, if they do go for the 747.


User currently offlinePlymSpotter From Spain, joined Jun 2004, 11611 posts, RR: 60
Reply 9, posted (7 years 4 months 1 week 4 days 9 hours ago) and read 12610 times:

Quoting SKY1 (Thread starter):
Airplanes in the Boeing 737 size range will account for 70 percent of all commercial jetliners delivered to Spanish airlines over the next 20 years. Fifteen to sixteen percent will be twin-aisle airplanes like the Boeing 777 and 787. Eleven percent will be smaller regional jets while the Boeing 747 size or larger represents three to four percent of the market

I really don't trust these figures. Spanair has gone down the line of operating the A320 family, as has Vueling, ClickAir and Iberia... so that leaves Air Europa who are a fairly dedicated Boeing customer to be ordering a lot of 737 sized aircraft. The time period is completely ambiguous anyway, and it's just about as good as saying what they would like to see happen in the next 20 years.

The 748 could make sense for IB though, it sits nicely in that gap between the 346 and the 388, but there has been a rift between the two companies for a while, so I'm not sure if Boeing could offer a sweet deal and smooth things over. Still though, considering the demand for flights to South America from the Iberian Peninsular, it would not surprise me if IB did purchase, a small fleet of 380's.


Dan Smile



...love is just a camouflage for what resembles rage again...
User currently offlineMham001 From United States of America, joined Feb 2005, 3561 posts, RR: 3
Reply 10, posted (7 years 4 months 1 week 4 days 8 hours ago) and read 12419 times:

Quoting PlymSpotter (Reply 9):
I really don't trust these figures. Spanair has gone down the line of operating the A320 family, as has Vueling, ClickAir and Iberia... so that leaves Air Europa who are a fairly dedicated Boeing customer to be ordering a lot of 737 sized aircraft.

737 sized aircraft would seem to include A320s. They aren't going to mention the competitions products in their forecasts.


User currently offlineXT6Wagon From United States of America, joined Feb 2007, 3390 posts, RR: 4
Reply 11, posted (7 years 4 months 1 week 4 days 8 hours ago) and read 12328 times:

note that while there might be a "market" for a certain aircraft size, and the Airline might admit a "need" for that size of aircraft, it does NOT mean they will buy it.

They might run the numbers and find that the 748 and A380 both make no sense in the limited numbers they need, and thus choose to under serve a couple of routes instead of taking on the risk of the new type.

I do think places like LH Technik will make it easier for airlines to operate smaller fleets in this class, but honestly its a big risk getting 4-5 of something that size if you only have a couple routes to use it on. Better IMO to get a couple smaller planes, or talk someone into codesharing 1/2 the load on one of their smaller planes, and 1/2 on yours.


User currently onlineAsturias From Spain, joined Apr 2006, 2062 posts, RR: 16
Reply 12, posted (7 years 4 months 1 week 4 days 8 hours ago) and read 12296 times:

Quoting SKY1 (Thread starter):
mientras que la categoría del Boeing 747 o tamaño superior representa entre un 3 y un 4% del mercado

Says Boeing. I think all medium sized airlines like IB are going for the 350/787 size with more frequency than bigger planes in the future. The 380/747-8 are too large for IB.

I can see them serving the Spanish market in the forms of charters over the tourist season, but not in regular revenue flights. Iberia is not Emirates. Thankfully.  Wink

Boeing wasn't necessarily referring to Iberia when they talk about the Spanish market.

saludos

Asturias



Tonight we fly
User currently offlineFXramper From United States of America, joined Dec 2005, 7186 posts, RR: 86
Reply 13, posted (7 years 4 months 1 week 4 days 8 hours ago) and read 12259 times:
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Quoting NYC777 (Reply 5):
I think Boeing has a better chance with the 787 at IB than the 748I.

 bouncy 

It's gonna be a good year for Boeing. (IB included.)


User currently offlineSKY1 From Spain, joined Apr 2006, 879 posts, RR: 4
Reply 14, posted (7 years 4 months 1 week 4 days 7 hours ago) and read 12201 times:

Quoting PlymSpotter (Reply 9):
it would not surprise me if IB did purchase, a small fleet of 380's

That's nearly impossible to happen. Airbus two years ago offered IB 4 A380 on a price very similar for the A346, even with that bargain, IB rejected the Airbus' proposal.

Quoting XT6Wagon (Reply 11):
and thus choose to under serve a couple of routes instead of taking on the risk of the new type.

IB could be waiting a Boeing's offer with a 787 AND 747-8I combo. (both with GEnx engines) IB has enough money to buy new frames right now.

The 787's (or even the 772ER is not ruled out due to immediate availability) might be a replacement for the oldest A343's. IB, on this scenario, will have both, Boeing and Airbus in long-haul fleet.

Quoting Asturias (Reply 12):
The 380/747-8 are too large for IB.

A380 does, 747-8 is different.

Quoting Asturias (Reply 12):
Boeing wasn't necessarily referring to Iberia when they talk about the Spanish market.

hehe .... Then, do you believe Boeing is thinking in UX when they are saying that " la categoría del Boeing 747 o tamaño superior representa entre un 3 y un 4% del mercado"??  

[Edited 2007-03-16 05:37:58]


Time flies! Enjoy life!
User currently offlineLTU932 From Germany, joined Jan 2006, 13864 posts, RR: 50
Reply 15, posted (7 years 4 months 1 week 4 days 7 hours ago) and read 12152 times:

Quoting SKY1 (Reply 14):
IB could be waiting a Boeing's offer with a 787 AND 747-8I combo. (both with GEnx engines)

Wouldn't 787s with Trent 1000 engines make more sense? IB does operate a sizeable fleet of RR powered aircraft (the 757s, which are on the way out, and the A346 with Trent 500s). Either way, the only possibility of acquiring a new aircraft and maintain some commonality would either be with RR powered 787s (in case they don't order the 747 after all), A350s with the Trent XWB and/or A380s with Trent 900s. Perhaps commonality isn't exactly what they require, if they do issue their final RFP to Boeing and Airbus.


User currently offlineTrijetsRMissed From United States of America, joined Oct 2006, 2323 posts, RR: 7
Reply 16, posted (7 years 4 months 1 week 4 days 7 hours ago) and read 12085 times:

Interesting statement given that currently Boeing airplanes are the minority in Spain as there are many Airbus types and a variety of Mad Dogs.


There's nothing quite like a tri-jet.
User currently offlineFlying-Tiger From Germany, joined Aug 1999, 4160 posts, RR: 36
Reply 17, posted (7 years 4 months 1 week 4 days 5 hours ago) and read 11692 times:

Quoting SKY1 (Thread starter):
Since A380 is too big for IB, I see this Boeing forecast like dropping a hint to IB.

Sorry, but you are reading far too much into this report. What you quote is:

Quoting SKY1 (Thread starter):
while the Boeing 747 size or larger represents three to four percent of the market

and that clearly means in the B747-8/A380 category, and does certainly not give any indication if an order is likely in anyway. It is just a market forecast, nothing else.



Flown: A319/320/321,A332/3,A380,AT4,AT7,B732/3/4/5/7/8,B742/4,B762/763,B772,CR2,CR7,ER4,E70,E75,F50/70,M11,L15,S20
User currently offlineR2rho From Germany, joined Feb 2007, 2574 posts, RR: 1
Reply 18, posted (7 years 4 months 1 week 4 days 4 hours ago) and read 11299 times:

Quoting SKY1 (Thread starter):
while the Boeing 747 size or larger represents three to four percent of the market

What you're quoting there is a general statement from a Boeing market study. You'll find that exact same statement in their market studies for other regions. It's a general phrase that has no relation to possible orders whatsoever. Sorry to burst your bubble.

IB's strategy of one A/C type for all long-haul operations seems to be working out very well, if you've seen their financial results these past years. Kind of like what low-cost airlines do with their all-737 fleets. Some time ago, they started retiring their mixed fleet of DC10s and 747s and chose to right-size their A/C on their routes to achieve higher load factors, and at that time they chose the A340. In fact, just recently they retired their last 747-200. They will never get an A380 anywhere short/mid term, because Latin American routes won't fill it. And there's room for them to add another frequency if routes grow. As for the 748I, while it could make sense on a handful of dense routes (Buenos Aires for example), like I said, their one-aircraft type strategy works well and I doubt they'll abandon it.

Now as for what next single aircraft type will replace all those A340s in some years, that will be an exciting debate!


User currently offlineBurkhard From Germany, joined Nov 2006, 4384 posts, RR: 2
Reply 19, posted (7 years 4 months 1 week 4 days 3 hours ago) and read 11131 times:

Iberia currently operates A340-600 to Santiago, Bogota, San Jose, Lima, Mexico, Rio, MIA, JFK, Sao Paolo, Buenos Aires. Since MAD has increased its capacity a lot, there is room for more long range slots. So I guess IB will follow LH and order some more A340-600.

User currently offlineLegoguy From United Kingdom, joined Jun 2006, 3312 posts, RR: 40
Reply 20, posted (7 years 4 months 1 week 4 days 3 hours ago) and read 11097 times:

Quoting SKY1 (Reply 2):
Even IB is saying for some routes the A346 is a bit small. They need, at least 4 or 6 bigger planes than the exiting Iberia's largest aircraft.

Could the 77W have a chance here? An Iberia 77W would look stuning!



Can you say 'Beer Can' without sounding like a Jamaican saying 'Bacon'?
User currently offlineAutoThrust From Switzerland, joined Jun 2006, 1589 posts, RR: 9
Reply 21, posted (7 years 4 months 1 week 4 days 2 hours ago) and read 10790 times:

After IB's "policy" to simplifie the fleet to one manufacturer, this doesnt make a lot of sense for planes like the 777 or 747/A380(to big). Though i believe the 787 would be a exception, being so advanced it would cost less introducing it, because lower mx costs/efficiency.However I expect IB will buy some additional A346 to meet the demand.


Just my  twocents 



“Faliure is not an option.”
User currently offlineEI321 From Iraq, joined Jul 2009, 0 posts, RR: 0
Reply 22, posted (7 years 4 months 1 week 4 days 2 hours ago) and read 10632 times:

Quoting Legoguy (Reply 20):
Quoting SKY1 (Reply 2):
Even IB is saying for some routes the A346 is a bit small. They need, at least 4 or 6 bigger planes than the exiting Iberia's largest aircraft.

Could the 77W have a chance here? An Iberia 77W would look stuning!


Doubt it. They could just go for A350-900XWB & A350-1000XWB to replace the A340-300s and A340-600s in the future. I also question why Iberia would be interested in the 747-8 after getting rid of 747-200s and leased 747-400s. Iberia are a good exapmle of Airbus family planning and its benifits. They changed from a fleet of 742, DC10, 757, 727, DC9/MD80 to just A340s and A32X. Would they want perhaps 4 A380s? I dont think so, well not right now but maybe in a few years.


User currently offlineJfk777 From United States of America, joined Aug 2006, 8276 posts, RR: 7
Reply 23, posted (7 years 4 months 1 week 3 days 23 hours ago) and read 9753 times:
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Iberia opertaed almost everything for a long time. Dc-10, 747, 727, Dc-9, MD-80 and 757's, now with the A320 on the short-haul and the A340 on the long-haul why would they buy 748 ? Latin American airports are not slot constrained, adding frequency to Buenos Aires and Sao Paulo is the way to go, EZE could use a third IB flight some days. If Iberia were to fly to Asia then that would change the need for a different airplane. Why Iberia doesn't fly to Asia is beyond me, with the USA's ridiculous restrictions flying to Asia via Madrid looks very appealing, especially from Southern South America. With ONEWORLD partner Cathay, Iberia should fly to HKG.

User currently offlineNA From Germany, joined Dec 1999, 10638 posts, RR: 9
Reply 24, posted (7 years 4 months 1 week 3 days 23 hours ago) and read 9707 times:

Quoting Legoguy (Reply 20):
Could the 77W have a chance here? An Iberia 77W would look stuning!

No way this awful plane will make it to Iberia. They have the A346, and I guess A350 in future, stupid to look at 773ERs now as it will certainly be out-matched by the larger A350-versions.

I´d love to see the 748 in IB´s colours though, the old 742s were fantastically looking in IBs livery.


25 Stitch : Interesting enough, at the A380's launch in 2000, one of Airbus' seniormost execs stated he felt IB would be one of the nine main A388 customers...
26 EI321 : That was a long time ago though! Do I recall correctly that United or NW was mentioned in that group of nine?
27 CHRISBA777ER : Says Who? Agreed. Agreed - but its basically the same capacity as the A346 so brings nothing but fleet complications. I would be absolutely amazed if
28 Post contains images SKY1 : I KNOW it is just a forecast, my God. On this thread I'M the first poster who realized this is a fo-re-cast. But the Boeing's forecast are pretty rig
29 Flying-Tiger : This is straight forward incorrect. Look at JetBlue, which has both an A320 and an Embraer 190 fleet. Look at flybe, having both the Q400 and the Emb
30 DAYflyer : I agree. I dont see any connection.
31 Asturias : Nah, the 748 is too big for Iberia just like the 380. IB is a too small airline for a fleet of jets this size. An airline needs ten frames of this mo
32 SKY1 : That's the exception to the rule: Look, Tiger, Southwest, Air Asia, Vueling, Ryanair, EasyJet, Transavia, Virgin Express, GOL and so on .... Please .
33 Flying-Tiger : Jup. Will all depend on the agressiveness of the airline / start-up. Look at Virgin Blue, which all of a sudden purchased 7 B777-300ER to launch long
34 CHRISBA777ER : Why do they need 10 or more A380s to make a profit? I think six would work - 8 ideal, 10 probably too many. * Shared type-rating pool with the majori
35 Post contains images Jacobin777 : ...they serve ORD occasionally too.... interestingly enough, when IB brings the A346 to ORD, it doesn't use its standard L-Gate...but rather the K-ga
36 Post contains images Stitch : Yup. And no mention of EK, nor SQ and QF as I recall.
37 Post contains links and images R2rho : ...and let's not forget JAL joining Oneworld too. I remember the Spanish government negotiated an increase of weekly frequencies with China, but IB d
38 Asturias : It is just a number, but it seens to be the ballpark estimation. Some operators have chosen to order less than ten frames but KLM has mentioned that
39 Fyano773 : 12 to 16 frames in the next 20 years... I think is feasible IB orders the type and, as mentioned above IB was a 747-400 operator and can fill the pla
40 JAL : It doesn't say that IB is a potential 747-8 customer at all, what gives?
41 EI321 : It says Iberia are a potential customer but in a rather loose context.
42 HighFlyer9790 : I thought IB was all airbus? wont they stick with them? (commonality, etc.)
43 Dutchjet : There is no such thing as ""all-Airbus"" or ""all-Boeing""........airlines study each and every airliner that is developed by the manufacters and wil
44 Post contains images SKY1 : Precisely! That's my point. Boeing is saying the Spanish carriers (no doubt neither JK nor UX) will need 12-16 aircraft 747-8I sized or larger--at le
45 JAL : I must admit would be great for Iberia to order the 747-8I but chances are they will order the 787 instead, what you think?
46 TrijetsRMissed : Don't forget the large number MD-11F's they ordered in the late '90s. Recent orders yes, but they still have a decent sized fleet of Mad Dogs.
47 Asturias : I think this is much more likely. The 748 is too much of a niche plane for IB. I don't care what that forecast says, it doesn't apply to Iberia. Stil
48 SKY1 : Maybe ít does apply for ...Spanair? Air Europa? Vueling? While I must admit I'd like so much see the 747-8I's with IB colours, it is also not less t
49 Asturias : Perhaps -- but maybe it doesn't apply to any Spanish airline. Just the Spanish market. I would like to see the 748 in IB colors as well, but it is mu
50 SKY1 : Read again: It's clear, I believe.
51 Asturias : Believe what you want. You are quoting a sales brochure pep-talk straight from Boeing. Pardon the rest of us if we don't accept it as worth squat. If
52 SKY1 : It's not a matter to believe or not but ...It's a matter to read. Maybe your point of view is better than the Boeing one. IB doesn't have any exclusi
53 XT6Wagon : Please read it. They didn't say that 70% of the airplanes the spanish airlines will be 737's... they said it will be 737 SIZED. Completely different
54 AlitaliaMD11 : Not to disagree with you Andres but could the 4% be talking about Air Pullmantur?
55 Asturias : This is my point exactly, along with the point that this is a sales forecast from the Boeing PR dept. Whatever its worth, Boeing will have an interna
56 XT6Wagon : Er... so why are you complaining? BTW Boeing's market forecasts are currently a good bit more reliable than Airbus's.... Anyhoo any good company the
57 Asturias : I pointed out that Boeing was in no way hinting that IB may become a 748 customer. That's about it. Why are you complaining?! saludos Asturias
58 SKY1 : That's very clear. I can't understand why it may give doubt. You seem underestimate the Boeing's forecasts. Call it on the way you prefer, but Boeing
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