SKY1 From Spain, joined Apr 2006, 885 posts, RR: 4 Posted (8 years 2 months 1 week 5 days 11 hours ago) and read 13809 times:
Airplanes in the Boeing 737 size range will account for 70 percent of all commercial jetliners delivered to Spanish airlines over the next 20 years. Fifteen to sixteen percent will be twin-aisle airplanes like the Boeing 777 and 787. Eleven percent will be smaller regional jets while the Boeing 747 size or larger represents three to four percent of the market
Los aviones de pasillo único del tamaño del Boeing 737 sumarán el 70% de todos los reactores comerciales entregados a las aerolíneas españolas en los próximos 20 años. Entre un 15 y un 16% serán aviones de doble pasillo como el Boeing 777 y 787. El 11% serán reactores regionales más pequeños, mientras que la categoría del Boeing 747 o tamaño superior representa entre un 3 y un 4% del mercado
Since A380 is too big for IB, I see this Boeing forecast like dropping a hint to IB.
Obviously, neither UX nor JK don't need a 747 airliner size.
In English: Boeing Projects $36 Billion Market for New Airplanes in Spain
In Spanish: Boeing Estima en 36.000 Millones de Dólares el Mercado Español de Aviones Nuevos
SKY1 From Spain, joined Apr 2006, 885 posts, RR: 4
Reply 4, posted (8 years 2 months 1 week 5 days 10 hours ago) and read 13544 times:
Quoting EI321 (Reply 3): And I was all excited whan I saw the title!
Did I say IB will buy the 747-8I for sure?
This is a forecast from Boeing for the Spanish Market. IF they (Boeing) are saying for the SPANISH Market "Boeing 747 size or larger represents three to four percent" ...what might you think? That forecast is for UX?
IF Boeing believes there is 0 chance they will say nothing for sure. And again: IB has said many many times the A380 are too large. I don't know IB will buy any 747-8I, but I believe there are more chances to see 747-8 with IB colours before A380.
Dutchjet From Netherlands, joined Oct 2000, 7864 posts, RR: 56
Reply 6, posted (8 years 2 months 1 week 5 days 10 hours ago) and read 13427 times:
Interesting piece......but the fact that Boeing projects that 3 to 4 percent of new airplanes for the Spanish market will be 747 sized (or larger) does not lead me to believe that IB will be ordering the 748I any time soon. Sorry, I just dont see the connection.
SKY1 From Spain, joined Apr 2006, 885 posts, RR: 4
Reply 7, posted (8 years 2 months 1 week 5 days 9 hours ago) and read 13249 times:
The forecasts % in annual traffic growth must be also taken into account. According to Boeing during 2005-2025 the most natural IB market, Europe-LatinAmerica will grow 5,1% per year ...I remember IB is the leader on this market
LTU932 From Germany, joined Jan 2006, 13979 posts, RR: 48
Reply 8, posted (8 years 2 months 1 week 5 days 9 hours ago) and read 13062 times:
I would have thought IB would rather look into the A380, but given their apparent interest in the 747-8I, I presume even the A380 is too big for them. I do like how "Boeing 747-856I" would sound.
It would be nice to see the 747 make a comeback at IB. I could see it serve Central America (especially SJO and PTY, the perhaps two biggest Central American markets) in the future, if they do go for the 747.
PlymSpotter From Spain, joined Jun 2004, 11939 posts, RR: 59
Reply 9, posted (8 years 2 months 1 week 5 days 9 hours ago) and read 13026 times:
Quoting SKY1 (Thread starter): Airplanes in the Boeing 737 size range will account for 70 percent of all commercial jetliners delivered to Spanish airlines over the next 20 years. Fifteen to sixteen percent will be twin-aisle airplanes like the Boeing 777 and 787. Eleven percent will be smaller regional jets while the Boeing 747 size or larger represents three to four percent of the market
I really don't trust these figures. Spanair has gone down the line of operating the A320 family, as has Vueling, ClickAir and Iberia... so that leaves Air Europa who are a fairly dedicated Boeing customer to be ordering a lot of 737 sized aircraft. The time period is completely ambiguous anyway, and it's just about as good as saying what they would like to see happen in the next 20 years.
The 748 could make sense for IB though, it sits nicely in that gap between the 346 and the 388, but there has been a rift between the two companies for a while, so I'm not sure if Boeing could offer a sweet deal and smooth things over. Still though, considering the demand for flights to South America from the Iberian Peninsular, it would not surprise me if IB did purchase, a small fleet of 380's.
...love is just a camouflage for what resembles rage again...
Mham001 From United States of America, joined Feb 2005, 3986 posts, RR: 3
Reply 10, posted (8 years 2 months 1 week 5 days 8 hours ago) and read 12835 times:
Quoting PlymSpotter (Reply 9): I really don't trust these figures. Spanair has gone down the line of operating the A320 family, as has Vueling, ClickAir and Iberia... so that leaves Air Europa who are a fairly dedicated Boeing customer to be ordering a lot of 737 sized aircraft.
737 sized aircraft would seem to include A320s. They aren't going to mention the competitions products in their forecasts.
XT6Wagon From United States of America, joined Feb 2007, 3469 posts, RR: 4
Reply 11, posted (8 years 2 months 1 week 5 days 7 hours ago) and read 12744 times:
note that while there might be a "market" for a certain aircraft size, and the Airline might admit a "need" for that size of aircraft, it does NOT mean they will buy it.
They might run the numbers and find that the 748 and A380 both make no sense in the limited numbers they need, and thus choose to under serve a couple of routes instead of taking on the risk of the new type.
I do think places like LH Technik will make it easier for airlines to operate smaller fleets in this class, but honestly its a big risk getting 4-5 of something that size if you only have a couple routes to use it on. Better IMO to get a couple smaller planes, or talk someone into codesharing 1/2 the load on one of their smaller planes, and 1/2 on yours.
LTU932 From Germany, joined Jan 2006, 13979 posts, RR: 48
Reply 15, posted (8 years 2 months 1 week 5 days 7 hours ago) and read 12568 times:
Quoting SKY1 (Reply 14): IB could be waiting a Boeing's offer with a 787 AND 747-8I combo. (both with GEnx engines)
Wouldn't 787s with Trent 1000 engines make more sense? IB does operate a sizeable fleet of RR powered aircraft (the 757s, which are on the way out, and the A346 with Trent 500s). Either way, the only possibility of acquiring a new aircraft and maintain some commonality would either be with RR powered 787s (in case they don't order the 747 after all), A350s with the Trent XWB and/or A380s with Trent 900s. Perhaps commonality isn't exactly what they require, if they do issue their final RFP to Boeing and Airbus.
R2rho From Spain, joined Feb 2007, 3004 posts, RR: 1
Reply 18, posted (8 years 2 months 1 week 5 days 3 hours ago) and read 11715 times:
Quoting SKY1 (Thread starter): while the Boeing 747 size or larger represents three to four percent of the market
What you're quoting there is a general statement from a Boeing market study. You'll find that exact same statement in their market studies for other regions. It's a general phrase that has no relation to possible orders whatsoever. Sorry to burst your bubble.
IB's strategy of one A/C type for all long-haul operations seems to be working out very well, if you've seen their financial results these past years. Kind of like what low-cost airlines do with their all-737 fleets. Some time ago, they started retiring their mixed fleet of DC10s and 747s and chose to right-size their A/C on their routes to achieve higher load factors, and at that time they chose the A340. In fact, just recently they retired their last 747-200. They will never get an A380 anywhere short/mid term, because Latin American routes won't fill it. And there's room for them to add another frequency if routes grow. As for the 748I, while it could make sense on a handful of dense routes (Buenos Aires for example), like I said, their one-aircraft type strategy works well and I doubt they'll abandon it.
Now as for what next single aircraft type will replace all those A340s in some years, that will be an exciting debate!
Burkhard From Germany, joined Nov 2006, 4487 posts, RR: 2
Reply 19, posted (8 years 2 months 1 week 5 days 3 hours ago) and read 11547 times:
Iberia currently operates A340-600 to Santiago, Bogota, San Jose, Lima, Mexico, Rio, MIA, JFK, Sao Paolo, Buenos Aires. Since MAD has increased its capacity a lot, there is room for more long range slots. So I guess IB will follow LH and order some more A340-600.
AutoThrust From Switzerland, joined Jun 2006, 1650 posts, RR: 9
Reply 21, posted (8 years 2 months 1 week 5 days 2 hours ago) and read 11206 times:
After IB's "policy" to simplifie the fleet to one manufacturer, this doesnt make a lot of sense for planes like the 777 or 747/A380(to big). Though i believe the 787 would be a exception, being so advanced it would cost less introducing it, because lower mx costs/efficiency.However I expect IB will buy some additional A346 to meet the demand.
EI321 From Iraq, joined Jul 2009, 0 posts, RR: 0
Reply 22, posted (8 years 2 months 1 week 5 days 1 hour ago) and read 11048 times:
Quoting Legoguy (Reply 20): Quoting SKY1 (Reply 2):
Even IB is saying for some routes the A346 is a bit small. They need, at least 4 or 6 bigger planes than the exiting Iberia's largest aircraft.
Could the 77W have a chance here? An Iberia 77W would look stuning!
Doubt it. They could just go for A350-900XWB & A350-1000XWB to replace the A340-300s and A340-600s in the future. I also question why Iberia would be interested in the 747-8 after getting rid of 747-200s and leased 747-400s. Iberia are a good exapmle of Airbus family planning and its benifits. They changed from a fleet of 742, DC10, 757, 727, DC9/MD80 to just A340s and A32X. Would they want perhaps 4 A380s? I dont think so, well not right now but maybe in a few years.
Jfk777 From United States of America, joined Aug 2006, 8914 posts, RR: 6
Reply 23, posted (8 years 2 months 1 week 4 days 23 hours ago) and read 10169 times:
Iberia opertaed almost everything for a long time. Dc-10, 747, 727, Dc-9, MD-80 and 757's, now with the A320 on the short-haul and the A340 on the long-haul why would they buy 748 ? Latin American airports are not slot constrained, adding frequency to Buenos Aires and Sao Paulo is the way to go, EZE could use a third IB flight some days. If Iberia were to fly to Asia then that would change the need for a different airplane. Why Iberia doesn't fly to Asia is beyond me, with the USA's ridiculous restrictions flying to Asia via Madrid looks very appealing, especially from Southern South America. With ONEWORLD partner Cathay, Iberia should fly to HKG.