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Indonesian B737 Crash, Part 3  
User currently offline777ER From New Zealand, joined Dec 2003, 12218 posts, RR: 18
Posted (7 years 7 months 1 week 5 days 21 hours ago) and read 10031 times:
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Now that part 2 has nearly reached 300 replys, maybe its time for part 3, Indonesian B737 Crash Part 2 (by ANCFlyer Mar 10 2007 in Civil Aviation)

171 replies: All unread, showing first 25:
 
User currently offlineZeke From Hong Kong, joined Dec 2006, 9159 posts, RR: 76
Reply 1, posted (7 years 7 months 1 week 5 days 20 hours ago) and read 10009 times:

Someone care to do a summary of factual information and photos known to date ?


We are addicted to our thoughts. We cannot change anything if we cannot change our thinking – Santosh Kalwar
User currently offlineMandala499 From Indonesia, joined Aug 2001, 6927 posts, RR: 76
Reply 2, posted (7 years 7 months 1 week 5 days 20 hours ago) and read 10010 times:

Oh Boy... gotta write that damn amateur accident report of mine ! LOL

Mandala499



When losing situational awareness, pray Cumulus Granitus isn't nearby !
User currently offlineBaroque From Australia, joined Apr 2006, 15380 posts, RR: 59
Reply 3, posted (7 years 7 months 1 week 5 days 18 hours ago) and read 9950 times:

High and fast for reasons as yet unknown.

User currently offlineNAV20 From Australia, joined Nov 2003, 9909 posts, RR: 36
Reply 4, posted (7 years 7 months 1 week 5 days 18 hours ago) and read 9927 times:

Plus visual approach using the auto-throttle. And only 15 degrees of flap when it finished up.

Data may now be available from the Cockpit Voice Recorder - not published yet though.



"Once you have flown, you will walk the earth with your eyes turned skywards.." - Leonardo da Vinci
User currently offlineMD80fanatic From United States of America, joined Apr 2004, 2660 posts, RR: 9
Reply 5, posted (7 years 7 months 1 week 5 days 17 hours ago) and read 9887 times:

Has it already been confirmed the A/T was in operation throughout the sequence? I have been under the impression that was an assumption we all made in order to explore the possibilites associated with such an action.

User currently offlineCurmudgeon From Australia, joined exactly 8 years ago today! , 695 posts, RR: 22
Reply 6, posted (7 years 7 months 1 week 5 days 16 hours ago) and read 9866 times:

A high energy approach was conducted in visual conditions in calm wind. (As reported by many witnesses, some industry, some pax) The ILS (which has a 2 degree lateral offset) was probably being used for track/glide slope reference. A/T use in visual approaches is GA SOP, so its not unlikely.
Credible witnesses report aircraft touchdown 695 meters deep on 2200 meter runway. One bounce of approximately 200 meters, followed by two more bounces of lesser magnitude. Reverser deployment and speedbrake extension reported during the bounce sequence. Third bounce was nose down with vertical velocity to cause nose tyres to fail. Rubber deposits on runway look consistent with heavy braking.

Post crash pictures indicate flap position on both wings 15 degrees. Normal landing flap either 30 or 40.

All evidence so far points to the crew, for whatever reason, attempting a landing from a rushed, hot/high approach with insufficient flap. Reverser selection immediately after touchdown might have prevented a baulked landing/go around attempt due to 737 procedural warning prohibiting go around after reversers unlocked.

Possibly one reverser was inop preflight, as yet unverified.

Windshear was reported early as a possible factor, this has since been discounted.

Cur...



Jets are for kids
User currently offlineNAV20 From Australia, joined Nov 2003, 9909 posts, RR: 36
Reply 7, posted (7 years 7 months 1 week 5 days 16 hours ago) and read 9835 times:

Quoting Curmudgeon (Reply 6):
Third bounce was nose down with vertical velocity to cause nose tyres to fail.

Couple of queries, Curmudgeon. The only 'graphical reconstruction' I've seen showed the nosewheels going on the first bounce - was it definitely not until the third one? In addition, I've previously understood that the nosewheels themselves broke off, it wasn't just the tyres going?



"Once you have flown, you will walk the earth with your eyes turned skywards.." - Leonardo da Vinci
User currently offlineBaroque From Australia, joined Apr 2006, 15380 posts, RR: 59
Reply 8, posted (7 years 7 months 1 week 5 days 14 hours ago) and read 9778 times:

Quoting NAV20 (Reply 4):
And only 15 degrees of flap when it finished up.

But sequence of flap settings unknown at this time to this thread.


User currently offlineElectech6299 From United States of America, joined Aug 2005, 616 posts, RR: 3
Reply 9, posted (7 years 7 months 1 week 5 days 12 hours ago) and read 9715 times:

Quoting Baroque (Reply 8):
But sequence of flap settings unknown at this time to this thread.

Although FDR data reported to indicate that flaps were not in "normal landing config" during the approach.



Send not to know for whom the bell tolls...it tolls for thee
User currently offlineMandala499 From Indonesia, joined Aug 2001, 6927 posts, RR: 76
Reply 10, posted (7 years 7 months 1 week 5 days 10 hours ago) and read 9648 times:

Cur et al,
Just been updated on the SOP, though not yet clear... GA SOP is A/T on during visual down to 400' AGL, stable by 500' AGL still in force. But, some do continue on a/t to landing, but manually cut off A/T (normally at about 100' AGL)and it is said by 1 GA pilot that "we do not rely on the A/T cutting out at 27' on visuals".

Based on the ATC transcripts and distances reported, though its accuracy cannot be used any further than a "what we have at the moment", I see no indications there that the whole approach was done faster than normal.

At 30NM @ 9000ft on the first position relay by ATC, it happened at 10 mins before the crash, by the calculations, that surmounts to an average groundspeed from that point to the runway of 180Kts GND SPD. This however, is not very useful...

The position relays to traffic that GA200 was at 10NM, 9NM and 7NM were also calculated, and it appears the average groundspeed between those positions and the time of the crash, are about 140kt each... though that may sound slow for a flap15, bear in mind the inaccuracies of these calculations.

However, the consistency of it, can lead to indicating that, there was a possibility that the approach was stable until the final phases of the approach... where we then start relying on the witnesses.

Now, it seems that the unstable approach comes late in the final, based on the recent eyewitness recollection I took yesterday. Something made them high on the short finals.

Now IF IT IS a flap15...

A flap15 landing at heavy landing weights will result in a higher nose attitude on final, the temptation is to put the nose down to have a quick better look... net result, speed builds up, and the way to return to the speed, is pull the nose up again and reduce the thrust a bit. Now, there is a tendency for this cycle to repeat again and again, and if one isn't careful, you'd end up high anyways. Now, it is unclear whether this happened or not and if so, when it happened, but this is a possibility on how they could end up high.

As to fast, it is only said so far that they're "faster than normal"... unclear if this is faster than a normal flap30 landing, or even faster than a flap15 landing.

As for the floating flare, the flap 15 itself can explain for a lot, with runway quickly passing you, you either go around or put it down... put it down wrongly, and you'd bounce.

it would appear that they have "at least" 3 distinct chances to execute the missed approach...
1. When they had the flap problem. Possible reason, enough distance to go, plus potential traffic conflict with the departing MD80 turning towards them, (as the Missed Approach procedure ILS and the visual traffic pattern for jets (left pattern for 09) could put them into conflict. Training flight wasn't a factor at this time.
2. Short finals, possibly they didn't go around due to the proximity to the training flight that had just taken off.
3. After first bounce, again, the above, but not much else.

Now, though in my opinion they should have taken the go-around, the above MAY explain why they didn't... but it's not up to me to decide whether ultimately their decision was right or wrong.

Now, one more thing on the flap mystery. MANY witnesses stated they saw the flap vortex condensation (whatever it's called)... on the ground and in the aircraft. Now, would it happen to a flap15 (in the tropics, at say Temp: 25 Dew: 24)?

mandala499

[Edited 2007-03-18 19:01:28]


When losing situational awareness, pray Cumulus Granitus isn't nearby !
User currently offlineMandala499 From Indonesia, joined Aug 2001, 6927 posts, RR: 76
Reply 11, posted (7 years 7 months 1 week 5 days 10 hours ago) and read 9610 times:

I think someone asked about the brakes...

http://www.thejakartapost.com/yesterdaydetail.asp?fileid=20070310.@01
Capt. Novianto, vice president of Garuda's flight safety department, said Yogyakarta's runway is uneven in some places.

"We feel the wavy points when taxiing after landing and when taking off," said Novianto, a senior pilot experienced in flying Boeing 737-400 aircraft. Garuda has 39 of them.

He added that the aircraft's braking system was malfunctioning upon landing at Jakarta's Soekarno-Hatta airport from Palembang on Tuesday, a day before the crash.

"The damage was repaired on Tuesday night and the plane was declared flight-worthy afterward," he told The Jakarta Post.


That was published in the Jakarta Post on 10th...

Mandala499



When losing situational awareness, pray Cumulus Granitus isn't nearby !
User currently offlineCurmudgeon From Australia, joined exactly 8 years ago today! , 695 posts, RR: 22
Reply 12, posted (7 years 7 months 1 week 5 days 5 hours ago) and read 9510 times:

Rough runways cause uneven braking, and can cause oscillation on the brake pedals. I have some experience in the certification test world, and can say that it was a big deal to find the smoothest surface possible for testing. Anytime the aircraft sees vertical acceleration the brake effectiveness is momentarily degraded because the aircraft is, for that instant, not supplying down force to the wheels.

The oscillation thing is caused when the frequency of the bumps starts a vibration in the foot/pedal couple. The pedals are sprung to allow normal brake action, and when your feet start to get out of sync with the bumps the braking action is also reduced. The only cure is to remove pressure from the pedals and then try again.

Cur...



Jets are for kids
User currently offlineNAV20 From Australia, joined Nov 2003, 9909 posts, RR: 36
Reply 13, posted (7 years 7 months 1 week 5 days 3 hours ago) and read 9472 times:

Quoting Mandala499 (Reply 10):
net result, speed builds up, and the way to return to the speed, is pull the nose up again and reduce the thrust a bit. Now, there is a tendency for this cycle to repeat again and again, and if one isn't careful, you'd end up high anyways.

We're thinking very much along the same lines, Mandala499 - as I said on the previous thread, "A bit too fast, a bit too high, reactions a bit too late - and suddenly there were 'no good options.'

In my view it is entirely possible that that the situation 'crept up' on the pilots. The reason that they didn't put down more flap in good time may well have been the simplest one of all - that they were above 'placard speed' for 30 degrees (which, at a guess, and subject to Curmudgeon's view, is maybe about 175 knots)?

The solution, as you say, would be to cut power and raise the nose - but it's possible that before that took effect in terms of reduced speed, the runway began looking uncomfortably close and also pretty short, 'instinct' took over, and down went the nose again. And, as you say, they may not have been able even to SEE the runway over the panel a lot of the time.

Easy to write that, as a sort of criticism of them, from my livingroom. But it's worth remembering that, given that 175 knots is almost 3 miles per minute, they probably had less than 60 seconds to sort things out, or alternatively to decide to go around. It certainly illlustrates how RIGHT alriline pilots have to get it, all day, every day, on every flight........

I hope that, if the CVR data has in fact been downloaded now, you hear something about its contents from your contacts soon. Any details of how experienced that First Officer is would also be interesting.



"Once you have flown, you will walk the earth with your eyes turned skywards.." - Leonardo da Vinci
User currently offlineJetfuel From Australia, joined Jan 2005, 2226 posts, RR: 0
Reply 14, posted (7 years 7 months 1 week 5 days 1 hour ago) and read 9398 times:

Quoting Curmudgeon (Reply 6):
One bounce of approximately 200 meters,



Quoting NAV20 (Reply 13):
they probably had less than 60 seconds to sort things out, or alternatively to decide to go around

If only...



Where's the passion gone out of the airline industry? The smell of jetfuel and the romance of taking a flight....
User currently offlineMandala499 From Indonesia, joined Aug 2001, 6927 posts, RR: 76
Reply 15, posted (7 years 7 months 1 week 5 days ago) and read 9358 times:

NAV,
Watch it mate, you're bordering on careless talk again IMO.
No, with Garuda, if you cannot deploy in time, you abandon the approach. I disagree that the speed has been allowed to stay high leading to the flaps being prevented from deploying... Why?
Please bear in mind those calculated groundspeeds...
Please bear in mind Garuda's SOP that's etched in their brain (for normal operations anyways)... Garuda tends to dangle the dunlops and slap those flaps quite far out on the approach...

It is more likely that the flaps did not deploy due to a malfunction.

1. If you slap those flap levers, they are going to deploy no matter if you're faster. If you are too fast, they'll just rip off. Malfunctions can happen when the strains are too much, and most likely due to assymetry protections.

2. If they were unable to deploy flaps due to speed, after the MD80 has passed, and before they get tooo low, they can go-around. There's nothing wrong in deliberately overshooting the approach when executing a missed approach and traffic avoidance... that is... if nothing is wrong.

Now, WITHOUT any problems, pilots do tend to come in high into JOG thanks to the terrain... visual illusions due to runway shape upon approach... THR above preceeding terrain (and no overrun that side), upslope on the TDZ, then downslope onto the last 500ft of the runway...

You really do not want to come in too low when landing at JOG, you might shear your landing gear on the river embankment just before the threshold...

Mandala499



When losing situational awareness, pray Cumulus Granitus isn't nearby !
User currently offlineNAV20 From Australia, joined Nov 2003, 9909 posts, RR: 36
Reply 16, posted (7 years 7 months 1 week 4 days 22 hours ago) and read 9328 times:

Quoting Mandala499 (Reply 15):
No, with Garuda, if you cannot deploy in time, you abandon the approach.

I agree that why they chose not to abort is a question that has to be answered, Mandala.

But we now have a comment from the chief investigator (in that article I linked to, link re-posted below) that the flaps did not deploy. He doesn't say why - except that he says that possibly 'high speed' was the cause.

"The chief crash investigator, Mardjono Siswosuwarno, said the aircraft's wing flaps failed to extend for landing and that might have been caused by the high speed."

Quoting Mandala499 (Reply 15):
Please bear in mind those calculated groundspeeds...

The chief investigator also said, without equivocation, that the approach speed was higher than normal. Since he'll undoubtedly have data from the Flight Data Recorder (and possibly the Cockpit Voice Recorder as well, by now) I think we have to take an element of overspeed as an established fact, not a mere possibility. Agreed, we still don't know how MUCH overspeed.

“This could be a contributing factor, but what is more important is that the plane's speed was higher than normal. Why? We don't know yet,” Mr Siswosuwarno, from the National Transport Safety Commission, said."

http://www.news.com.au/heraldsun/story/0,,21400951-5005961,00.html

Quoting Mandala499 (Reply 15):
Please bear in mind Garuda's SOP that's etched in their brain

I'm sure that, if it turns out that the pilots departed from this (or any other) airline's SOP, this won't be the first or the last time that happens. As to 'etched in the brain,' that's why I hope we learn some time soon how many hours that First Officer (PF) had in his logbook.



"Once you have flown, you will walk the earth with your eyes turned skywards.." - Leonardo da Vinci
User currently offlineMandala499 From Indonesia, joined Aug 2001, 6927 posts, RR: 76
Reply 17, posted (7 years 7 months 1 week 4 days 20 hours ago) and read 9262 times:

No... I disagree for him to say the high speed as the cause, unless there are other information available (FDR). Bear in minds those comments are not based on official reports, therefore one must be careful with the details.

Speed was higher than normal, but, a flap15 landing would be faster than normal. Now the problem is, he (and you) seem to imply that the overspeed prevented the flap deployment.

However, another article, http://www.smh.com.au/news/world/win...-jet/2007/03/16/1173722744310.html
or this one's a bit more complete...
http://www.theage.com.au/news/nation...aims/2007/03/16/1173722750242.html

I had called the authors who made those articles, and it is said specifically that the investigators said the lack of flaps may have caused the aircraft to go in faster.

I am sticking on the speed due to lack of flaps, not the lack of flaps due to speed. because Currently publicly available information do not support the latter, neither do the SOPs of the crew.

I have talked to engineers and also engineers with accident investigation training, and crew that, unless you've grossly exceeded the speeds, the flaps would not extend any further because of the strains, however, overspeeding in an approach should not cause the flaps to malfunction other than an assymetry lockout due to the forces involved. Other than that, it's either flap deploying, or flaps ripping off.

I really do not understand why that you seem to be presuming (sorry if I'm wrong on this) that it was a very fast descent and they can't slow down in time? I don't buy that FOR THE MOMENT.

Here is some data:
30NM from the airport aircraft position was at 9000ft. This is again, normal, nothing out of the ordinary. That was also, 10 mins before the aircraft went to the runway and that was with a HUGE allowance of a 1 minute time (well, 50 secs) on runway before it crashed! The allowance was put in to put already put a faster speed bias and cushion out any timing errors on the transcripts.
Do some calculations, the average speed between that position and the runway was 180Knots.

At 10 miles, it was visual and 4 mins before going to the runway... that gives 150Knots
At 9 miles, it was visual and still about 4 mins before going to the runway... that gives 145knots.
At 7 miles, it was visual and about 3 mins from the runway... that gives 140knots!

The flap limit speeds are:
1 - 230KIAS, 2 - 230KIAS, 5 - 225KIAS, 10 - 210KIAS, 15 - 195KIAS, 25 - 190KIAS, 30 - 180KIAS, 40 - 158KIAS

Those are speeds where if you deploy positions above those speeds, you're asking for the flaps to jam, not rip off yet.

Now, it seems utterly illogical at the current available information that the planes flaps would not deploy because the airplanes were going too fast. If from 30 miles, the average speed to go was 180Knots, the more time it spends above that speed during that period MUST also lead to more time it spends below that speed. Now, you can deploy flap30 at 180 knots (groundspeed vs wind not withstanding).

Vref15 at:
70 tons = 177kias, 65 tons = 171 knots, 60 tons = 164 knots, 55 tons = 156 knots, 50 tons = 149 knots.
If stall speeds are Vref/1.3, those speed numbers based on position relays, still make sense. However, for the final speed being say 180KIAS, doesn't make sense with the relays.

This is why I think it is unlikely that the flaps would jam or were not extended "because they were coming in too fast", but more likely that the speeds were fast because they were not able to deploy landing flaps.

It's a minor difference in arranging the sentence, but its implications are huge Nav... what is implied in flaps not extending because they could not slow down enough would even surprise the cowboy gung-ho pilots, why? Coz they remember they have 1 tool... the speedbrake! Although Boeing doesn't recommend the use of speedbrakes above flap5, it can be done when you've screwed up your descent planning and you need to get in that slot quickly... For them, deploying landing flaps is more important than not deploying... because the implications are too obvious.

mandala499



When losing situational awareness, pray Cumulus Granitus isn't nearby !
User currently offlineJetfuel From Australia, joined Jan 2005, 2226 posts, RR: 0
Reply 18, posted (7 years 7 months 1 week 4 days 19 hours ago) and read 9250 times:

At 7 miles, it was visual and about 3 mins from the runway

Do we know the altitude? That would give us the approach profile. - with various flaps



Where's the passion gone out of the airline industry? The smell of jetfuel and the romance of taking a flight....
User currently offlineHAWK21M From India, joined Jan 2001, 31684 posts, RR: 56
Reply 19, posted (7 years 7 months 1 week 4 days 17 hours ago) and read 9200 times:

Any Trascripts of the CVR Available publically yet.
regds
MEL



Think of the brighter side!
User currently offline9MMAR From Malaysia, joined Jul 2006, 2110 posts, RR: 18
Reply 20, posted (7 years 7 months 1 week 4 days 17 hours ago) and read 9156 times:

As a result from this crash and some other crashes recently, the Ministry of Transportation has decided to introduce 3 rating categories to all carriers in Indonesia:

Rating 1: Comply to all procedures
Rating 2: Not fully comply but manageable
Rating 3: Not comply to most procedures and difficult to be 'cure'

Based on the news on SCTV at 6 pm just now, it was reported that there were 3 carriers in Rating 3 and the license of 1 of them is expected to be suspended very very soon. Most speculated that AdamAir will be the one.

I am just wondering why the government doesn't suspend all 3 carriers in Rating 3. The other 2 are no less dangerous than the intended 1.

In the news as well, it was reported that a Lion Air's MD80 failed to take off at Banjarmasin today due to an 'indicator' not functioning.  no 


User currently offlineNAV20 From Australia, joined Nov 2003, 9909 posts, RR: 36
Reply 21, posted (7 years 7 months 1 week 4 days 16 hours ago) and read 9153 times:

Hi MEL - no, no information yet. We may never see a full transcript, they're not often published. Anyway, there has only been the one story about the data being recovered so far, the journalist may have misheard.

Quoting Mandala499 (Reply 17):
Now the problem is, he (and you) seem to imply that the overspeed prevented the flap deployment.

Much relieved, Mandala, I think I see where the misunderstanding is now.

We're taking a bit of an 'opposite view' on flaps. It's not normally a question of workng out the highest speed at which you dare lower them. In a properly-executed approach, you keep the rate of descent fairly shallow, without too much power on, and as the aeroplane decelerates 'naturally,' through drag, you lower the flaps in stages at given speeds. These will normally be far lower than the 'danger levels' you quote.

However, if you approach on a too-steep descent path, for whatever reason, the dive itself may keep the speed above your 'target' lowering level, however much you slack off the power. The normal remedy for that is to ease the nose up to bleed off speed until you can lower more flap. But, of course, keep that up for too long and you'll find yourself well above the proper glideslope, and at risk of overshooting.

That was all I was suggesting, as a possibility; that the pilot found himself 'between two stools,' needing to keep the nose up to get down to his target speed for 30 degrees of flap, but feeling impelled to push it down for fear of coming in too high. And that he maybe ended up with the worst of both worlds, not enough flap down AND too high anyway.

In any event, I'm sure that we can both agree that there was a remedy immediately to hand; a go-around. So there is no way that not having enough flap down, for WHATEVER reason, could or should have caused this accident.

[Edited 2007-03-19 12:48:47]


"Once you have flown, you will walk the earth with your eyes turned skywards.." - Leonardo da Vinci
User currently offlineCurmudgeon From Australia, joined exactly 8 years ago today! , 695 posts, RR: 22
Reply 22, posted (7 years 7 months 1 week 4 days 16 hours ago) and read 9129 times:

1. Trying to parse the time/distance equation is useless if using whole minutes. At those ranges you need to know the time in seconds. That still gives you groundspeed, and if you know the wind on the approach, you can deduce airspeed.

2. Speed at ten miles is not a predictor of speed at 0.1 mile.

3. Flaps don't rip off for over speeds in the 20-30% range. I know of at least two incidents where flaps 30 was set at 205-210 kts without damage, and one where flaps one was discovered at 320 kts. (I wonder what he's doing now?)

4. The 737 does not bleed energy well, as I have noted a few times now. A high energy approach can be the result of being too high (potential energy) or too fast (kinetic energy) or a combination of both. In any event the speedbrakes and wheel brakes and reversers can dissipate a finite amount of energy in the time/distance available. If much of that distance is squandered floating and bouncing it becomes an impossible task.

5. The flap placard speeds noted above do not correspond to the 737-400 series aircraft that I have flown, but I'm too tired to drag out a manual. 250 for 1 to 5, 215 for 10, 205 for 15 ,195 for 15 ,185 for 25, 175 for 30 ,162 for 40 from memory. Please remember that these are placard speeds, so they aren't something that I commit to reliable memory.

6. As I noted previously the difference between flaps 15 approach speeds and flaps 30 is approximately 10 (ten) knots.

7. Vref is the minimum approach speed. While it is 1.3 Vs for configuration, pilots that aren't finished living yet fly Vref + 5 minimum. Below Vref the drag increases rapidly as does fuel flow required for flight. Vref is the trade-off speed that balances total energy against the higher risk of a stall or high descent rates close to the ground.

Cur...



Jets are for kids
User currently offlineNAV20 From Australia, joined Nov 2003, 9909 posts, RR: 36
Reply 23, posted (7 years 7 months 1 week 4 days 15 hours ago) and read 9077 times:

Quoting 9MMAR (Reply 20):
As a result from this crash and some other crashes recently, the Ministry of Transportation has decided to introduce 3 rating categories to all carriers in Indonesia:

Rating 1: Comply to all procedures

Thanks, 9MMAR, new information.

Any indication of what those 'procedures' entail? Is it just maintenance, or does it cover things like scheduling, pilot selection/training as well?



"Once you have flown, you will walk the earth with your eyes turned skywards.." - Leonardo da Vinci
User currently offlineMandala499 From Indonesia, joined Aug 2001, 6927 posts, RR: 76
Reply 24, posted (7 years 7 months 1 week 4 days 15 hours ago) and read 9070 times:

Aha... No wonder...

Well, 30NM at 9000ft is normal anyways. Nothing seems special.
It isn't a good method to use the transcripts to measure speed of the aircraft, but, it does give an idea on how things were flowing, and in this case, I see nothing that hints at them being rushed.

Quote:
However, if you approach on a too-steep descent path, for whatever reason, the dive itself may keep the speed above your 'target' lowering level, however much you slack off the power. The normal remedy for that is to ease the nose up to bleed off speed until you can lower more flap. But, of course, keep that up for too long and you'll find yourself well above the proper glideslope, and at risk of overshooting.

Nav, are you saying it's too steep descent path prior to flap and gear deployment, or after? If the former, I still doubt your possibility, I still find it more likely that things went wrong after they started deploying the flaps and then landing gear... it is the oscillation AFTER the decided to continue on flap15-ish that they ended up being above slope and/or faster...

Approaching 09 in the morning, directly into the sun, flap stuck at somewhere, somehow decided to continue, nose high approach... nice glare huh? Plus the visual tricks on the slope, many pilots come in slightly higher than they should when on visuals (and disregarding the PAPIs)... the threshold is above the immediately preceeding terrain, slopes up to the end of the TDZ, then down until the last 300' on the other end (when standing at 27, you can't see the 737's tail at 09!)

I find these a more likely cause of them ending up too high and fast rather than the rushed and can't slow down to deploy flaps method.

Cur,
The 737 don't like slowing down much, that's why the cowboy bunch of them know the rules of thumb and are not unwilling to use the speedbrakes... Now with Garuda, it's "keep it neat but the speedbrake's there too if you need it".

And yes, those placard speeds I got are weird! Yours sound more correct, probably the ones I got are "company mods". Oh hang on, Bugga! They're 733/5 placards from another operator! *bangs head on table*

Mandala499



When losing situational awareness, pray Cumulus Granitus isn't nearby !
25 NAV20 : I'm saying that the whole approach, from starting the descent, should have been coordinated. Gear, speeds, flap settings, direction, glidepath, every
26 MD80fanatic : I've been away for a few days.....has there been any new information released? Any news of the CVR?
27 Post contains links Jetfuel : experts in the United States had repaired the cockpit voice recorder, which was badly burnt in the fire, so investigators can download the last 30 min
28 Post contains images MD80fanatic : . . . Thanks JetFuel.
29 Mandala499 : NAV, There is so far, no evidence that the whole descent was botched. Garuda would like to be stable way more than 3 miles before landing, they like t
30 NAV20 : Mandala499, you seem to have more faith in Garuda than I have in Qantas (which is saying something)! In the wrong combination of circumstances, ANY a
31 Mandala499 : Nav, I seriously doubt that they had this accident because they went in too fast and cannot deploy their flaps in time, assuming the flaps were all wo
32 BuyantUkhaa : Mandala, that's a very interesting fact... It does sound like something very similar could have happened here.The similarities are striking!
33 Nwafflyer : Off topic to be sure, but other than posting, how do I add this to my 'starred topics?' I have nothing to add to what the experts have already said, b
34 Post contains links BuyantUkhaa : In http://www.airliners.net/discussions/general_aviation/ just click on the star of the thread. Or click on the star above (at the thread starter.)
35 NAV20 : NWafflyer, on the main Civ. Av. page, click on the star to the left of the thread title. Star should turn yellow and the thread will be easy to find f
36 Mandala499 : NAV, In the case of -LIJ, that report did not mention the crew notifying the ATC of the flap problem at anytime during the flight. This is consistent
37 Post contains images NAV20 : Getting a bit convoluted, Mandala499 - but this is a great thread, we're both still polite! Look - anything's 'possible.' But yes, basically I'm sayin
38 Baroque : Hmmm. Are we even sure of the state of flaps when the plane came to a halt, let alone their position during the "landing". Still less do we know in wh
39 Mandala499 : Well Nav, Though it can get strenuous at times, but then, the politeness is greatly appreciated... way better than endless mudslinging. One thing I ag
40 Post contains images Tetuko : Hi, I'm new here. If there's a problem with the flaps (either assymetrical deployment or stuck flaps at a certain degrees), shouldn't the pilot feels
41 Post contains links and images NAV20 : Glad things are clearer, Mnadala. Found this earler - a very full report on a mucked-up approach in 2000 by an 11,000-hour pilot. Not in Indonesia, bu
42 Baroque : Selamat datang. As best I can work it out, Tetuko, there might (or might not) have been a problem with the flaps, which the pilots might or might not
43 Mandala499 : Tetuko, Should the pilot feel it? Of course, but as to feel the assymetry, not always. Besides, an assymmetry detection error is a possibility that ne
44 NAV20 : Thanks, Mandala - don't know where we'd be without you being on the spot with an ear to the ground. But I suspect that, if negligence on that sort of
45 MD80fanatic : There is much here you are leaving out...whether on purpose or not. Consider a situation where the PF fully opened the spoilers while advancing the f
46 Nwafflyer : Is there any way (Or am I totally out of line) to summarize what we think: 1 - facts that we know 2 - things we suspect are facts 3 - logical conclusi
47 NAV20 : Nwafflyer, we'd all love to help if we could; but unfortunately there are very few established facts yet. In addition, there's an 'Item 4' which would
48 Tetuko : Mandala, An asymmetric flaps/slats deployment means, by definition, that the left and right flaps/slats do not deploy to the same position. The pilots
49 NAV20 : The investigators have had the information from the Flight Data Recorder for some time. They will know the airspeed ('indicated,' anyway) AND the fla
50 Curmudgeon : These two things are completely independent. The spoilers installation is on the wing's upper surface, and does not communicate with the underside. (
51 Electech6299 : Thanks for the information. I now have two questions. The first is to follow on yours: How often do pilots practice 2 engine approaches at flap15? Or
52 MD80fanatic : Regardless of the physical flap panel position post-accident.....the actual flap position on each wing, when the aircraft came to rest, can easily be
53 Mandala499 : That rumour of flap5 @ 205 kts upon flaring I myself am dismissing as inconsistent with whatever data is available. It is so far unclear where this ru
54 Curmudgeon : I can't speak for other airline's training programs. At my employer (a name brand flag carrier) flap malfunctions don't come up too often. I think th
55 Curmudgeon : Douglas had an aversion to speedbrakes with flaps, for good reason. The 727 also had a prohibition on speedbrakes with flaps owing to the very high d
56 NAV20 : Would it be possible to confuse the levers under pressure, Curmudgeon? In any case, I believe that it is possible (maybe even SOP, especially with a
57 Curmudgeon : Yes, the speedbrakes are armed on the approach, typically when flaps 15 are set. (although it doesn't matter too much one way or the other) The speedb
58 Post contains links NAV20 : Further to that, remarkable article from 'Aviation Today' - which appears to be based on the Australian Transport Safety Board's first impressions fro
59 NAV20 : Thanks, Cur - crossed posts with you, not for the first time! One question:- Presumably the 'trigger' for retraction is selection of TOGA thrust? So t
60 Curmudgeon : Thanks NAV20. That paints a sobering picture of events, doesn't it? This also confirms much of what Mandala499 has reported on the flight path. Cur...
61 NAV20 : My head filled with four-letter words as I read it, Curmudgeon. Followed by that "There, but for the grace of God, go I......" feeling. "There are ol
62 Post contains links Mandala499 : Appears to be based on the Australian Transport Safety Board's first impression of the Flight Data Recorders? I have my doubts... Nice to know what th
63 Baroque : Mandala, the late but wonderful Gerard Hoffnung had a cartoon of a small elephant with its trunk stuck in its ear saying "Hallooo". Perhaps that is wh
64 NAV20 : Sorry, Mandala, can't see what you appear to be griping about? There's no law against journalists reading websites? We all freely contribute to (in t
65 Baroque : WADR leakers cannot claim to be right-minded while there are perfectly well-defined paths for information flow. In more practical terms, those with t
66 Post contains links NAV20 : Getting to be a bit like a war, Baroque - what casualty rate is 'acceptable' to pursue 'national' objectives? Did you read that the Aussie media (whi
67 Baroque : Nav20, it should NOT be like a war, but promoting leaks is as good as declaring war. Whatever we do it should be done in such a way as to maintain tru
68 Post contains images NAV20 : You wouldn't expect me to agree 100%, now would you, Baroque? In general terms I agree that relations with Indonesia should be (have to be) handled wi
69 Post contains images Baroque : Not exactly 100% Nav!! But I had hoped my logic would get about 99%. I argue that a high level of agreement would be better if you want solutions. I h
70 NAV20 : I certainly said it - I'm sure others did too. But I'm working on probabilities - I'd say the probability that this accident was mainly due to pilot
71 Baroque : Nav20. In answer to your last para, the answer sadly might well be more if you approach this in the transitive fashion indicated there and fewer if yo
72 NAV20 : Whether the people responsible for the negotiations use the big stick or the carrot, or both turn and turn about, is up to them, Baroque. All I'm say
73 Mandala499 : Gripe? Was I griping about journalists writing what we write here on their publications? If that was the case I wouldn't have written anything since t
74 Post contains images MD80fanatic : If I may...... Action has already been taken in the "human" arena regarding this accident. If mistakes were made during this approach, then by the fan
75 RIXrat : If you guys collaborate, once the preliminary findings are reported, I think you have a paperback book in the making. Go to it! Cheers, Emil
76 Nwafflyer : Off topic, but I am so glad I fly in the US, in Europe, in Mexico -- i would love to travel to Singapore or Bali, and I would love to travel to Japan.
77 Post contains images NAV20 : Thanks for #73, Mandala - most interesting about the 'mindset' thing. Just on the flying thing, couple of points to clarify (not really disagreements)
78 Mandala499 : Over here visual approaches are normal... despite availability of ILS... with the exception of Jakarta, Surabaya, Bali and Medan, there are no special
79 MD80fanatic : Perhaps there was a slight misunderstanding. I'm no lawyer (thank God) and I wasn't really referring to anything legal or not. I was rambling on abou
80 Post contains links and images Baroque : Yep, many a mile to go before anything definitive. Good idea, but also it might be better to wait just a little while longer and go for the (quality)
81 RIXrat : I was more or less thinking to hit them hard and hit them fast. Once the preliminary report (if that will exist) is issued you guys will have most of
82 MD80fanatic : Count me out brother (not that I would be invited to join anyway).....but I am not signing my name to anything unless I can walk the site, view the wr
83 Post contains images NAV20 : I doubt that there will be even a 'preliminary' report for years, RIXrat. That's normal with all accidents - even if (as is possible in this case) th
84 Mandala499 : Try 20 - 25 pages of A4 to get a complete picture... It ain't paperback stuff... but cuts a lot of waffle and unsound speculation. Once you want to g
85 Post contains links CX flyboy : http://www.globalsim.web.id/gerry/iaair/iaair-pkgzc-r14.pdf Here is something which may interest you chaps.
86 Baroque : All too true. It might be interesting to run a simulation of it or have you done that already?? I have it on good authority that it was caused by a b
87 SeeTheWorld : I have read every post in these three threads, although some of the technical stuff is over my head. This may have been answered, but I don't remember
88 Post contains images NAV20 : Tried googling to find you a nice short simple explanation, SeeThe World- but there doesn’t seem to be one. So I'll give it a try, I'm sure others
89 Mandala499 : From the NTSC this morning: FDR data readout and CVR data readout is done. Now... The NTSC is now convening a meeting as we speak regarding the data.
90 Post contains images NAV20 : Thanks, Mandala - you're 'ahead of the curve' with your sources, as usual. Can't help feeling that, now that it's confirmed that they have the CVR dat
91 Mandala499 : NAV, The question remains on "why not the go-around"... which is a huge issue given both versions... If the fast all the way theory is true, Partial i
92 SeeTheWorld : Nav - Thanks for the flare explanation; it was very helpful. I suspected it was something like that, but your explanation was extremely vivid. Mandala
93 Mandala499 : NTSC reportedly will make a public statement tomorrow or monday... "A new effort towards transparency"... Mandala499
94 Post contains images NAV20 : Thanks again, Mandala. Let's hope the Report isn't SO 'transparent' that the facts are invisible. Interesting angles emerge from those comments. Readi
95 Mandala499 : The off the record comments from both pilots and the whatever leaks there are so far on the CVR are actually in line with each other. I wouldn't be s
96 NAV20 : Lost me there, Mandala, there's a bit of a 'disconnect.' I took your comments in #91 to mean that it wasn't clear so far which pilot was doing the fl
97 Mandala499 : Nav, Refer to reply #89... Possibility #2... surfaced not long after that link cxflyboy was circulated. Then credible information regarding that reach
98 NAV20 : You mean the 'tailwind' thing? I'd rather discounted that - if there'd been an un-forecast wind blowing from the west at about 40 knots, surely that t
99 Mandala499 : NAV, Sorry I lost you there, I was merely explaining on the "disconnect" you mentioned as my reply #91 didn't connect to my reply #95... I wasn't talk
100 NAV20 : Thanks Mandala - beginning to piece it together. Couple of 'flying' points - as always, subject to confirmation by more qualified people like Curmudge
101 Mandala499 : NAV, The ATC transcripts indicate that they were about to reach 9000' at about 30NM from the airfield... They were then cleared to 4000, then to 2500.
102 NAV20 : I don't see how the First Officer could 'take over' without the consent of the Captain. Apart from the fact that it would have been technically mutin
103 Curmudgeon : This scenario is a thorny one. The pilot not flying has a moral obligation to the passengers and crew to not let the PF kill them regardless of legal
104 Post contains links NAV20 : My 'gut feeling' is that that word -'fixation' - may be the key, Curmudgeon. That the PF, despite his experience, somehow found his attention narrowe
105 Post contains images Curmudgeon : Yes, I can't imagine the depths of despair that they must both feel, especially by now after a month without sleep.
106 Post contains links NAV20 : The promised 'transparency' form the Chief Investigator. Good for him for being so frank and open:- "The chief Indonesian investigator Tatang Kurniadi
107 NAV20 : Possibly another eerie parallel with that Burbank overshoot:- "At 1810.29, the captain told the first officer, “Flaps thirty. Just put it down. Put
108 Post contains links NAV20 : The investigator has clarified what he said - suggests now that there was only a disagreement in the air about the go-around, the 'argument' came late
109 Curmudgeon : That must translate differently from Indonesian. To me "absent mindedness" is what I do to irritate my kids.
110 Post contains images NAV20 : Certainly odd wording to encounter in an accident investigation, Curmudgeon Just as a matter of interest, though, you've mentioned that Boeing do not
111 Curmudgeon : No, there isn't where I work, but airlines often modify their checklists to reflect local procedures. Here it is axiomatic that autopilot disengageme
112 Post contains links NAV20 : Fragment of video interview with Indonesian official available now on here - click on video top left:- http://www.abc.net.au/news/newsitems/200704/s18
113 Baroque : Actually, I think the main thing we KNOW at present is that two of the investigators or investigation related folk are not actually saying the same th
114 Nitrohelper : The Indonesian government, and business mostly operate in the shadows , and sometimes in the dark. We would call most meetings "nato", No Action Talk
115 NAV20 : Baroque, there's no evidence whatever of 'mechanical gremlins.' Even 'flap malfunction' (which shouldn't have caused an accident anyway) has now been
116 Post contains images NAV20 : Thanks, Curmudgeon, exceptionally good insight. It all seems to boil down to 'no gain without pain.' The designers (or fleet captains) introduce proc
117 Post contains images Baroque : None in particular, but I am waiting until it is spelled out that the plane being high and fast was entirely a result of the pilot's (or pilots', as
118 NAV20 : Off-topic, Baroque - but, oddly enough, that was the one Rumsfeld saying that I fully agreed with. Mainly because, for a short while, I was the only
119 Post contains links NAV20 : This story adds one more thing the investigator has apparently said; that the flaps were at 5 degrees, not the 15 degrees that we have pretty well bee
120 Curmudgeon : I have been thinking about human failure modes the past couple of days. Last night I dusted off my old physiology texts to begin the process of catal
121 NAV20 : I've been wondering about 'scenarios' too, Curmudgeon - but without your deeper knowledge of flying. Occurs to me that he may have been in the habit
122 Curmudgeon : I don't know if GA has quick access recorders as many airlines outside of America* do. If so, this would alert the company that a limitation had been
123 NAV20 : Must admit that I'm sceptical about the 'flaps 5' bit - waiting for confirmation. It could be that the investigator stated the wrong figure by mistake
124 Electech6299 : I can help a little in this area, but without specific airliner expertise. The thing I have been thinking of is mild asphyxiation, most commonly caus
125 Curmudgeon : Good point about the environmental possibilities...I had discounted those for the reason that you mentioned, namely that the F/O appears to have been
126 NAV20 : Thanks Elechtech, good point about the pilot possibly being disorientated due to illness. Agree, though, that CO poisoning is unlikely. The pilot isn'
127 Electech6299 : Yes, on second reading you are right. There were plenty of opportunities for even the most deliberate pilot to go around, unless he was impaired- or
128 Mandala499 : Add: with: and: the rumoured F/O's habit of being a cowboy himself and: This is the first time they flew together. What do you get? Cur made a sentenc
129 Curmudgeon : I wrote that when I thought that the F/O was still waiting to get to placard speed for flaps 15. The aircraft would certainly fly with flaps 5 at a m
130 Post contains links and images NAV20 : Well, here's the guts of the 'preliminary report.' Doesn't take things much further, except that the speed was no less than '410 kph' - 224 knots! "A
131 Mandala499 : Preliminary report due released saturday. I've been told it's 221kts touchdown speed... but we'll see tomorrow. Mandala499
132 Post contains images NAV20 : Crossed posts, mate!
133 Mandala499 : NAV, It was a nice scoop by Mark... I just translated some of the jargon for him. I didn't give him the report, I have yet to see it myself, and the N
134 Post contains images Baroque : A certain Gerry S featured on the ABC TV news on 7 March 2007. Good presentation whoever it was! Still wondering why he tried to land at 400+ kph, usu
135 NAV20 : "You sure said a mouthful, bud.......!" I suspect that we'll never know the true answer. Not that that will stop the lawyers (and politicians) arguin
136 Baroque : No wonder the pax noticed! They would also be able to see the runway disappearing underneath them while still a goodly distance up. As to licences, a
137 Post contains images NAV20 : It would probably have been easier for the ones who knew nothing about flying. Speaking personally, I have no intention of ever flying around Indones
138 Baroque : Apart from no pubs, I rest my case. As a westerner, you do need an Int licence to ensure that they charge you the usual double when you get stopped f
139 NAV20 : Sorry, Baroque, didn't realise you meant licences in Indonesia in particular. Sooner you than me. Although I never feel at all apprehensive in small
140 Gffgold : I can assure you as a westerner living in Indonesia that a local driving licence is extremely easy to obtain. No test, no awkward questions, just a f
141 Mandala499 : As a follow on the preliminary report that was obtained by The Age/SMH... I've spent the weekend chasing them for you guys... The report has only the
142 BuyantUkhaa : Great stuff Mandala, thanks for posting. So it seems that both reversers worked - if I'm not mistaken one had previously been stated to be inop. Whic
143 Post contains images NAV20 : Terrific stuff, Mandala499, many thanks! I was joking about the ferries, I wouldn't be seen dead on one (to coin a phrase ). As you might expect of me
144 Curmudgeon : Without going into too much analysis, I want to point out that the wind would have made a normal descent unlikely. A 19 knot tailwind at 4000' meant t
145 Mandala499 : Guys, I have to correct myself on this... Under 1000ft, 2 reminders were made by the F/O. On the 1st... The F/O said: "shouldn't we go around?", the
146 Paparadzi : Maximum speed for flap 1 and 5 extension is 250 kts for the -400.
147 Curmudgeon : Yes, it has already been mentioned, but busting the flap placard speed wasn't the cardinal sin committed here.
148 Post contains links Baroque : Now this http://www.smh.com.au/news/world/pil...fuel/2007/04/11/1175971179808.html "Pilot may have been trying to save fuel Mark Forbes Herald Corres
149 Nwafflyer : This just completely baffles me - I do not have the knowledge of Curmudgeon/Nav20/Mandala/Baroque or anyone else on this 3rd post revision. But, I am
150 Mandala499 : Nwafflyer Mostly. Only Garuda have a significant intl presence. And if you're worried about your staff going to Indonesia, stick them on Garuda. The m
151 Post contains links NAV20 : NWafflyer, the Indonesian Government just graded their airlines in three categories (well, two categories actually, none of them made it into the firs
152 Curmudgeon : Observing from afar it does seem that Garuda has done much to get its house in order. This accident should be considered apart from the unfortunate s
153 Curmudgeon : No sooner did I post this I saw on the news that GA has a bonus for fuel savings program. It was being derided by the GA pilot's association leader. I
154 XT6Wagon : Stupid Ideas are like the undead in bad horror films.... no matter how many times you think you shot it dead, it will stand back up and try to kill y
155 NAV20 : It would also be interesting to know whether Garuda penalises pilots for late arrivals. I wouldn't be surprised (not just about Garuda). This was the
156 Post contains images Baroque : To which I would add don't worry as Curmudgeon writes, things happen on other airlines. Stupid ideas do seem to have a particular form of attraction
157 MD80fanatic : If this was all about "money", why has it taken so long (6 weeks now and counting) for the release of "anything" concrete from either recorder? If it
158 Mandala499 : MD80, According to ICAO Annex13, there is no obligation to inform the public... at least until the final report. Even the preliminary report, I am tol
159 Baroque : I note that Mandala has not ventured to guess what effect this policy would have. I think this is very wise. I don't know much about hierarchical per
160 Curmudgeon : When it comes to pilot pay and incentives, I firmly believe that there should never be any performance bonus or penalty scheme in place. There have be
161 NAV20 : Just 'thinking around' this:- You have to wonder whether the F/O DID try to take over at the last minute - but the Captain didn't relinquish control?
162 Mandala499 : NAV, Always cover your behind! There's a CVR, USE IT ! Should an urgent takeover be done, always talk to the CVR! It's there for evidence! Always dec
163 NAV20 : All agreed, Mandala499, but as far as I know it still 'takes two.' Besides the captain 'responding verbally,' he would also have had to cooperate by p
164 Baroque : There needs to be another term for negligent there. Normally negligence is failing to pay attention, whereas in this case it is paying attention to w
165 Post contains images Curmudgeon : Yeah, I was in a hurry, so I wasn't too accurate with the label. What I am getting at is the simple conflict of interest that opens the door for poor
166 Baroque : I was not being critical of your use of the word, I am sure that will be the technical term. I was just musing that it is only the half of it. In a w
167 Curmudgeon : That's what I get for replying at 0400! I know that you weren't being critical. Remember the foreign currency trading scandal at the NAB? The chairma
168 NAV20 : Fits with my line of thinking, Curmudgeon - that in the final analysis it MIGHT come down to one pilot having to try to overpower the other. In a lon
169 Post contains links NAV20 : From this ABC Radio interview, looks possible that the 'official fix is in;' the investigator and the airport manager blaming the lack of run-off area
170 Baroque : It is indeed an international problem, the overlying guidelines should not be such as to get between the pilotS (intended emphasis on the plural) and
171 NAV20 : Can't deny that I've done it before, Baroque - though not so far on this unique thread. 'Unique' because - a rare privilege on any forum - we are all
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