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CX: CEO Comment on A380/B747-8 & A350/B787 Plans  
User currently offlineManni From South Korea, joined Nov 2001, 4221 posts, RR: 23
Posted (7 years 2 weeks 6 days 19 hours ago) and read 11603 times:

Buried in this article. Mr. Tyler speaks out about potential purchases of new aircraft.

http://quote.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aoi4u.2UPkx0

from the article,

Cathay is also due to receive 18 777-300ER passenger planes by the end of the 2010. This influx means that the carrier is only looking at ordering 747-8s or Airbus A380s ''in the longer term,'' Tyler said. It also won't need new mid-range planes, such as the 787 and A350, until 2011 at the earliest, he added.

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

The A350/787 part seems a bit unclear. Ordering in 2011 at the earliest or taking delivery of them? Even if they wanted to, would they be able to? Certainly not the A350.


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38 replies: All unread, showing first 25:
 
User currently offlineKaitak744 From United States of America, joined Jul 2005, 2304 posts, RR: 3
Reply 1, posted (7 years 2 weeks 6 days 18 hours ago) and read 11437 times:

Quoting Manni (Thread starter):
Cathay is also due to receive 18 777-300ER passenger planes by the end of the 2010. This influx means that the carrier is only looking at ordering 747-8s or Airbus A380s ''in the longer term,''

I guess he is basically saying that Cathay will not be ordering anymore 777s. Just 747-8s and A380 for the upper market.

Quoting Manni (Thread starter):
It also won't need new mid-range planes, such as the 787 and A350, until 2011 at the earliest, he added.

Well, this makes sense, given that most of their A330s are brand new. However, 2011 means they need to order now...


User currently offlineKtachiya From Japan, joined Sep 2004, 1781 posts, RR: 2
Reply 2, posted (7 years 2 weeks 6 days 18 hours ago) and read 11280 times:

I don't understand quite well but are they going to get in the B777-300ER to retire their fleet of A340-300 or are they going out of the fleet eventually? I know that the 3 A340-600 are going to go (am I wrong) but what is the exact designation of ordering hte B777-300ER?

For instance, JAL got a mixture of B777-200ER and B767-300ER to replace the MD-11 and the DC-10 that were leaving the fleet but................



Flown on: DC-10-30, B747-200B, B747-300, B747-300SR, B747-400, B747-400D, B767-300, B777-200, B777-200ER, B777-300
User currently offlineManni From South Korea, joined Nov 2001, 4221 posts, RR: 23
Reply 3, posted (7 years 2 weeks 6 days 16 hours ago) and read 11076 times:

Quoting Kaitak744 (Reply 1):
However, 2011 means they need to order now...

That's a bit unclear I think. Is it ordering in 2011 at the earliest or taking delivery of them? Obviously, taking delivery of them in 2011 at the earliest could also mean taking delivery in 2013 or 2014, so not rulling out the aircraft that's available later. It will be interesting to see wich aircraft CX will choose, 787s or A350XWB's, keeping in mind that the smallest aircraft they operate are the A333s and A343s and lots of them.




Quoting Ktachiya (Reply 2):
but what is the exact designation of ordering hte B777-300ER?

Expansion perhaps? Perhaps any of the Hong Kong members and/or CX employess on here can shed a light on this.



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User currently offlineDfwRevolution From United States of America, joined Jan 2010, 911 posts, RR: 51
Reply 4, posted (7 years 2 weeks 6 days 16 hours ago) and read 10988 times:

Quoting Kaitak744 (Reply 1):
However, 2011 means they need to order now...

More like 6-12 months ago!

Quoting Manni (Reply 3):
That's a bit unclear I think. Is it ordering in 2011 at the earliest or taking delivery of them?

They must certainly be talking about placing an order by 2011, not accepting delivery in 2011. Barring cancellations or a production increase, the 787 is sold-out through most of 2012 and the A350 won't enter service until 2013-2014.

Quoting Manni (Reply 3):
It will be interesting to see wich aircraft CX will choose, 787s or A350XWB's, keeping in mind that the smallest aircraft they operate are the A333s and A343s and lots of them.

Given the time frame CX would be placing an order and then accepting delivery, the 787-10 may very well be in-service. With the 787-9 essentially like-sized with the A333/A343, I wouldn't discount the 787 on account of size at all...


User currently offline6thfreedom From Bermuda, joined Sep 2004, 3314 posts, RR: 20
Reply 5, posted (7 years 2 weeks 6 days 16 hours ago) and read 10953 times:

Having being burnt as a launch customer of the A346, I think we will be seeing CX sitting back and taking aircraft only after they have entered service.

Also worth remembering that CX focus on frequency rather than capacity, so I think they will stick to A350/B787 size aircraft from regional and medium haul services.


User currently offlineCloudyapple From Hong Kong, joined Jul 2005, 2453 posts, RR: 9
Reply 6, posted (7 years 2 weeks 6 days 9 hours ago) and read 10378 times:

Quoting Ktachiya (Reply 2):
hat is the exact designation of ordering hte B777-300ER?

Partly to replace some of the oldest B744s which will become BCFs and partly for expansion. Some of the more mature A343 routes may go up to B773ERs and the A343s cascading down to new routes.

Quoting Manni (Reply 3):
keeping in mind that the smallest aircraft they operate are the A333s and A343s and lots of them.

Not exactly any more - any fleet decision will take Dragonair or their route structure/requirements into account from now on. So Cathay will be looking at B737/A320 right up to B748/A388. They will buy whatever type is fit for their purpose, A or B.

For example B783s might find a place in Cathay's fleet for regional routes. 2500-3000Nm basically covers all of East Asia from Hong Kong. B788s can replace A343s in time. B789s provides for growth on the A343 routes, graduating with B773ERs, which in turn are released by B748s or A388s.


2500Nm/3000Nm Range Chart

Or more A333s can enter the fleet rolling over the oldest ones. A357s, if it happens, can replace the A333s in due course with A358/A359 replacing B772As and the 1000s replacing B773As. Topping that with B748s or A388s for growth to Heathrow and Fiumicino.

However it might be a few more years before anything goes solid.



A310/A319/20/21/A332/3/A343/6/A388/B732/5/7/8/B742/S/4/B752/B763/B772/3/W/E145/J41/MD11/83/90
User currently offlineEI321 From Iraq, joined Jul 2009, 0 posts, RR: 0
Reply 7, posted (7 years 2 weeks 6 days 9 hours ago) and read 10302 times:

I was just thinking about their A330-300s. How will the 787-9 or A350-900 compare on shorter routes, below 5000miles?

User currently offlineKeesje From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 8, posted (7 years 2 weeks 6 days 9 hours ago) and read 10250 times:

So we are burying the a.net theory Cathay is scaling down and will replace the 747 with 777-300ER only and don´t need anything bigger. They are considering A380´s too, which must be a surprise for few looking at their network strategy, competition and markets.

On the cargo side I think Cathay played it smart making sure they got their hands early on 747-400s and cargo conversion slots. A 747-400 conversion is way cheaper then a 747-400ERF/ -8F but they are hard to get at this moment and the (cargo) boom is now. Who knows how the market will look in 5 yrs..

[Edited 2007-03-28 14:37:13]

User currently offlineStitch From United States of America, joined Jul 2005, 29654 posts, RR: 84
Reply 9, posted (7 years 2 weeks 6 days 9 hours ago) and read 10230 times:
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Quoting EI321 (Reply 7):
I was just thinking about their A330-300s. How will the 787-9 or A350-900 compare on shorter routes, below 5000miles?

A 787-9 should have better economics against the larger and heavier A350XWB-900, just as the A330-300 right now has better economics against the larger and heavier 777-200A on such "short" missions.


User currently offlineJfk777 From United States of America, joined Aug 2006, 8089 posts, RR: 7
Reply 10, posted (7 years 2 weeks 6 days 8 hours ago) and read 10020 times:
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Cathay until now had been unique, while several airlines operate both 777 and A330/340, they operate the 777 only regionally while others operate the Airbus regionally and the 777 on the long haul. The new Cathay 773ER fleet will replace the A340's to Europe and The Americas. Cities where Cathay fliesa 744 daily might see two 777's. LAX and LHR are two cities where I wonder how the 777 will effect the schedule since LAX is 3 744's daily and LHR gets 4 daily 744 and A340's.

User currently offlineNA From Germany, joined Dec 1999, 10358 posts, RR: 11
Reply 11, posted (7 years 2 weeks 6 days 7 hours ago) and read 9940 times:

Good to hear that CX will order 748Is and/or A380s in the near future.

I hope that the FRA-route will remain a 744 route until the future VLAs arrive.


User currently offlineStitch From United States of America, joined Jul 2005, 29654 posts, RR: 84
Reply 12, posted (7 years 2 weeks 6 days 7 hours ago) and read 9864 times:
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Quoting NA (Reply 11):
Good to hear that CX will order 748Is and/or A380s in the near future.

I'm not sure it will really be in the "near term".

Previous statements by CX principals quoted on this board have stated they were not in an immediate hurry to add to their VLA fleet as they felt the 773ER additions were sufficient for the moment. Also, Tyler noting new VLA purchases were planned "in the longer term" leads me to believe that it will be more towards the middle of the next decade when CX will make a decision which seems prudent as they will want in-service data on the performance of both the A388 and 748 to make sure either (or both) plane(s) can adequately serve trans-Pacific routings from HKG to North America.


User currently offlineKaitak From Ireland, joined Aug 1999, 12321 posts, RR: 35
Reply 13, posted (7 years 2 weeks 6 days ago) and read 7077 times:

I think that as a major cargo airline, CX will be influenced by cargo capacity in its choice between the 748 and A380; that's more likely to favour the 747-8, which wouldn't be a great surprise. I would be surprised if CX was not among the airlines with which Boeing discussed the configuration of the 747-8 and it is known that some Asian carriers were among those who pushed Boeing to lengthen the pax version to the same length as the freight version.

As for the 787/A350, the need to have aircraft in 2012 means they should be looking pretty carefully now, or as one poster more accurately put it, "more like six months ago". Of course, if Boeing increases 787 production, as it's looking to do, it might create a few spaces on the line in 2011-12, but with ever more customers looking to order the aircraft, they wouldn't want to hang about.

I can't see CX going for anything smaller than the 787-9/A350-900 and I think they have already indicated interested in the -10, so to my mind, this will be a Boeing win, whenever it happens.


User currently offlineDfwRevolution From United States of America, joined Jan 2010, 911 posts, RR: 51
Reply 14, posted (7 years 2 weeks 6 days ago) and read 6966 times:

Quoting Keesje (Reply 8):
So we are burying the a.net theory Cathay is scaling down and will replace the 747 with 777-300ER only and don´t need anything bigger.

Well you have engineered many theories of your own, but the only two airlines who are actively pursuing wholesale replacement of their 747 fleets with the 773ER are JAL and ANA. In the case of these two airlines, it isn't a "theory" that the 773ER will replace the 747, it's the airlines' publicly stated fleet plans.

Quoting Keesje (Reply 8):
Who knows how the market will look in 5 yrs..

Judging by the growing backlog for new build freighters, I would say global customers are rather confident in their future expansion.


User currently offlineZeke From Hong Kong, joined Dec 2006, 8637 posts, RR: 75
Reply 15, posted (7 years 2 weeks 5 days 22 hours ago) and read 6250 times:

Quoting Kaitak744 (Reply 1):
I guess he is basically saying that Cathay will not be ordering anymore 777s. Just 747-8s and A380 for the upper market.

Dont see how one could draw that conclusion.

Quoting Kaitak744 (Reply 1):
Well, this makes sense, given that most of their A330s are brand new. However, 2011 means they need to order now...

I dont see anything being ordered in the 787/350/748/380 range for years.

Quoting Ktachiya (Reply 2):
I don't understand quite well but are they going to get in the B777-300ER to retire their fleet of A340-300 or are they going out of the fleet eventually?

Aircraft are being added to the fleet for expansion, looking at a 50% increase in fleet size over 10 years, well on the way with 43 aircraft coming. The proof is in the pilot and cabin crew training, which is expanding at the moment to ramp up for expansion, not fleet replacement.

Quoting Ktachiya (Reply 2):
I know that the 3 A340-600 are going to go (am I wrong) but what is the exact designation of ordering hte B777-300ER?

You will have to wait and see, good chance that fleet will increase as well.

Quoting Manni (Reply 3):
It will be interesting to see wich aircraft CX will choose, 787s or A350XWB's, keeping in mind that the smallest aircraft they operate are the A333s and A343s and lots of them.

A320 with KA.

Quoting Manni (Reply 3):

Expansion perhaps? Perhaps any of the Hong Kong members and/or CX employess on here can shed a light on this.

Correct

Quoting 6thfreedom (Reply 5):
Having being burnt as a launch customer of the A346, I think we will be seeing CX sitting back and taking aircraft only after they have entered service.

Depends on what you mean burnt or do you mean like being the launch customer of the 744 and the problems we had ?

Quoting 6thfreedom (Reply 5):
Also worth remembering that CX focus on frequency rather than capacity, so I think they will stick to A350/B787 size aircraft from regional and medium haul services.

IN many respects I think you will find the 787 being too small.

Quoting Cloudyapple (Reply 6):
Some of the more mature A343 routes may go up to B773ERs and the A343s cascading down to new routes.

Sounds like a good plan.

Quoting Keesje (Reply 8):
So we are burying the a.net theory Cathay is scaling down and will replace the 747 with 777-300ER only and don´t need anything bigger.

CX is adding 744s to the pax fleet at the moment, one of the few airlines actively increasing their 744 pax fleets.

Quoting NA (Reply 11):
Good to hear that CX will order 748Is and/or A380s in the near future.

In my view, will not be until both have been in service.



We are addicted to our thoughts. We cannot change anything if we cannot change our thinking – Santosh Kalwar
User currently offlineKaran69 From India, joined Oct 2004, 2868 posts, RR: 18
Reply 16, posted (7 years 2 weeks 5 days 13 hours ago) and read 5216 times:

Quoting Stitch (Reply 9):
A 787-9 should have better economics against the larger and heavier A350XWB-900, just as the A330-300 right now has better economics against the larger and heavier 777-200A on such "short" missions.

Good point, even SQ have done something similar, when they announced purchase of 789s to replace their regional 772s and eventual 333s and they signed an LOI for the 359 XWB to replace their long distance international configured 772 ERs.

I can see CX doing something similar down the line with 789s to replace their 333s and 359s perhaps to replace their 343s and expansion.

Quoting Jfk777 (Reply 10):
they operate the 777 only regionally while others operate the Airbus regionally and the 777 on the long haul.

That is because they have only the A Variants of both the 772 and 773 as of now.

Quoting Zeke (Reply 15):
Aircraft are being added to the fleet for expansion, looking at a 50% increase in fleet size over 10 years, well on the way with 43 aircraft coming.

Zeke, can you give us the breakdown of the 43 figure, i am aware of the 18 77Ws and 3 333s coming in what about the remaining 22--or have i missed something.

Quoting Zeke (Reply 15):
Depends on what you mean burnt or do you mean like being the launch customer of the 744 and the problems we had

This is news to me i did not know CX was the launch customer of the 744, is there any link or any web page where the problems with CX had a mentioned.
I always was under the impression that the 744 was a Hit from day one.

Karan


User currently offlineZeke From Hong Kong, joined Dec 2006, 8637 posts, RR: 75
Reply 17, posted (7 years 2 weeks 5 days 11 hours ago) and read 5041 times:

Quoting Karan69 (Reply 16):
I am aware of the 18 77Ws and 3 333s coming in what about the remaining 22--or have i missed something.

What has been announced to the public :

18x773ER
6x744ERF
4x744BCF
2x744
5x333

You will have to wait for the rest.

"Cathay Pacific will add a total of 43 planes in the coming three years, Tyler said." (12 January 2007) from http://www.ibtimes.com/articles/2007...112/cathay-pacific-airways-ltd.htm



We are addicted to our thoughts. We cannot change anything if we cannot change our thinking – Santosh Kalwar
User currently offlineWINGS From Portugal, joined May 2005, 2831 posts, RR: 69
Reply 18, posted (7 years 2 weeks 5 days 11 hours ago) and read 5021 times:

Quoting Zeke (Reply 17):

What has been announced to the public :

18x773ER
6x744ERF
4x744BCF
2x744
5x333

You will have to wait for the rest.

Why is it that I suspect that Cathay Pacific may actually look into acquiring additional A346's instead of disposing of it's A346 fleet?

One would have to ask why would Cathay be willing to do such thing. With a superior product (B77W) coming into it's fleet, what would be the point?

Regards,
Wings



Aviation Is A Passion.
User currently offlineNA From Germany, joined Dec 1999, 10358 posts, RR: 11
Reply 19, posted (7 years 2 weeks 5 days 10 hours ago) and read 4939 times:

Quoting WINGS (Reply 18):
Why is it that I suspect that Cathay Pacific may actually look into acquiring additional A346's instead of disposing of it's A346 fleet?

One would have to ask why would Cathay be willing to do such thing. With a superior product (B77W) coming into it's fleet, what would be the point?

Well, at least from the passenger side the 773 is NOT a superior product to the A346. At best its even, and many, like me, prefer the A346 over the 777. The A346 is a very good airplane, and unimportant airlines like Lufthansa keep preferring it.


User currently offlineCX flyboy From Hong Kong, joined Dec 1999, 6531 posts, RR: 55
Reply 20, posted (7 years 2 weeks 5 days 9 hours ago) and read 4823 times:

Quoting WINGS (Reply 18):
Why is it that I suspect that Cathay Pacific may actually look into acquiring additional A346's instead of disposing of it's A346 fleet?

The engineering director has already been quoted as confirming the three A346s will be leaving the fleet. The aviation industry always changes and nothing is hard and fast, but for the moment, they are leaving. End of story.


User currently offlineEI321 From Iraq, joined Jul 2009, 0 posts, RR: 0
Reply 21, posted (7 years 2 weeks 5 days 9 hours ago) and read 4818 times:

Quoting CX flyboy (Reply 20):
Quoting WINGS (Reply 18):
Why is it that I suspect that Cathay Pacific may actually look into acquiring additional A346's instead of disposing of it's A346 fleet?

The engineering director has already been quoted as confirming the three A346s will be leaving the fleet. The aviation industry always changes and nothing is hard and fast, but for the moment, they are leaving. End of story.

They are ILFC owned right? What airline are they going to? Is it true that they have the highest dispatch rate of any aircraft in the Cathay fleet?

[Edited 2007-03-29 14:09:37]

User currently offlineSEPilot From United States of America, joined Dec 2006, 6673 posts, RR: 46
Reply 22, posted (7 years 2 weeks 5 days 8 hours ago) and read 4734 times:

Quoting Karan69 (Reply 16):
This is news to me i did not know CX was the launch customer of the 744,

I had always thought that NW was the launch customer for the 744, and I had never heard of problems with them. I know that the initial 741's had engine problems, but they were solved. Can someone (Zeke?) shed light on early problems with the 744?



The problem with making things foolproof is that fools are so doggone ingenious...Dan Keebler
User currently offlineCX flyboy From Hong Kong, joined Dec 1999, 6531 posts, RR: 55
Reply 23, posted (7 years 2 weeks 5 days 8 hours ago) and read 4717 times:

Quoting EI321 (Reply 21):
They are ILFC owned right? What airline are they going to? Is it true that they have the highest dispatch rate of any aircraft in the Cathay fleet?

I believe they are ILFC owned. As yet, no word on who they are going to, and as for dispatch rates, it would not surprise me, as there is no other aircraft in the fleet which can substitute these three A346s in what they do and therefore instead of having a compact flying schedule like the other aircraft in th fleet, the A346s can often be seen sitting on the ground for long periods waiting for their next duty and hence any problems can be resolved on the ground during the downtime. Were they flying as intensively as the rest of the fleet with fairly short turnarounds everywhere, we would be seeing different figures altogether. As with any stats, there is normally more to it than meets the eye.


User currently offlineJfk777 From United States of America, joined Aug 2006, 8089 posts, RR: 7
Reply 24, posted (7 years 2 weeks 5 days 8 hours ago) and read 4710 times:
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Quoting NA (Reply 19):
Well, at least from the passenger side the 773 is NOT a superior product to the A346. At best its even, and many, like me, prefer the A346 over the 777. The A346 is a very good airplane, and unimportant airlines like Lufthansa

Who are the "BIG" A346 operators, Lufthansa, SAA, Thai, Iberia, China Eastern & Virgin Atlantic. Emirates cancelled their A346 order and is buying or leasing every 773ER it can get its hands on. Cathay has 3 for a nonstop HKG to JFK route soon to be replaced by 773ER's. Air Canada cancelled their A346 order and replaced the entire A330/A340 fleet with 773ER's.

Lufthansa and Virgin are the only AAA airlines opertating the A346, they got launch customer pricing.


25 EI321 : What about the 777-300ER?
26 NA : At the time of the 744s rollout in January 1988 more than 100 airplanes had been ordered already and airlines were eagerly waiting to put them into s
27 Stitch : What about the 777-300ER? CX has yet to take delivery of their first 777-300ER.
28 Jacobin777 : ..shouldn't Airbus have taken a page from history then and learned something?
29 Zeke : Nope, that is the 330, 340 not far behind. Electrical and system issues which at times required that the whole aircraft needed powering down with pax
30 EI321 : Was it the galleys? What company designed them?
31 Ikramerica : I'm willing to bury it right now since you just created that theory in reply 8. Many airlines will reduce 744 fleets during replacement, some airline
32 Zeke : No actual aircraft systems, mainly electrically related and fuel pumps etc, unable to power a bus, commanding a valve or switch showing up on EICAS a
33 Post contains images Jacobin777 : ..hence, taking it as a lesson as it was the more prudent thing to do...
34 Shenzhen : Wow, The guiy says we don't need any new airplanes now, as we are taking delivery of 77-3ers until 2010. After all the deliveries are taken, we will b
35 Ikramerica : Well, there is a third way. Take it as a lesson, but then fail to understand the lesson or apply it correctly. That's kind of a combination of my fir
36 Jacobin777 : .I dont' think it was number 3 or number 1....."cheaper money" and hubris got in the way of a smart business decision...thus I think it was actually
37 Post contains links Keesje : oh oh a myth buster.. Rewriting history A.net style.. http://www.airliners.net/discussions...general_aviation/read.main/3219859
38 Trex8 : lets see, so B had a "little" problem in the late 80s with the 744 and they went on about 8 years later and had another 'little" problem with the 737
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