EddieDude From Mexico, joined Nov 2003, 8102 posts, RR: 41
Reply 1, posted (8 years 10 months 3 weeks 1 day 21 hours ago) and read 3484 times:
Thanks for the link Steve. The guys from TPG have their hands full with the QF acquisition and now they are going after IB! Wow! Let's wait a couple of days to see if this is just a rumor or if the texan barbarians are actually at the Puerta de Alcalá.
EddieDude From Mexico, joined Nov 2003, 8102 posts, RR: 41
Reply 4, posted (8 years 10 months 3 weeks 17 hours ago) and read 3119 times:
With my trip to Oz beginning in 15 hours or so, I have read nothing but work-related things! Awful times for me these past few weeks, but all will be well once I hop on my AM 737W bound for LAX! (and will get better once I take my seat inside the QF 744).
Seriously, I have nothing against P.E. In fact, Private Equity Transactions was amongst my favorite courses at the University of Chicago Law School, and we do a lot of M&A work for a Mexico City-based private equity shop at the firm... it is just that some years ago I read the one and only Barbarians at the Gate and your post brought back memories, so I thought it'd be appropriate to write that the barbarians were at one of Madrid's landmarks (most appropriately, a gate).
I am surprised (very surprised), like you, that nobody has followed up on this thread. While I was not expecting a stream of over a hundred posts in a few hours like when the first rumors of a QF sale surfaced, I definitely thought our Spanish friends were going to be very active in this thread. Anyhow, let's see how things move. Too bad (or too good actually) I will not be following closely a.net during the next 2 weeks (I have decided not to carry my laptop with me).
R2rho From Spain, joined Feb 2007, 3447 posts, RR: 2
Reply 5, posted (8 years 10 months 3 weeks 12 hours ago) and read 2984 times:
Thanks for bringing this up, Coal -you beat me to it! I too am surprised at the little response this thread has had! Where is the Spanish aviation community? Does nobody seem to care about this? IB is without any doubt the next big airline merger coming up, yet previous rumors have been discussed with equally low response at airliners.net: BA&IB: Does BA Need To Merge? and Iberia CEO Mentions Merger/acquisition Possibility - I wish this thread a better luck!
Now Iberia is no straightforward takeover, it's not a troubled airline like Alitalia. They have been doing very well financially, after successfully restructuring from a former state-owned airline to a privately-held one, and have been in the black at times when everyone else was in the red. Their performance has been exceptional but they lack the sheer size of the biggies like BA and LH, and that makes them a target for a takeover. However, IB currently has 1700mill€ in cash available to confront any situations. So they're not gonna sit around and watch how others split up the cake among them. IB management has a strong bargaining position.
BA is also not gonna sit and watch how TPG takes away an airline that has been viewed as the perfect marriage for them.
And meanwhile, LH is closely watching from the shadows...
Expect a lot to come out of this. TPGs interest will now trigger everyone elses and force them to take action too. It'll probably extend for months and may end in a dramatic battle for the ownership of IB!
BAtriple7 From United Kingdom, joined Nov 2005, 227 posts, RR: 0
Reply 6, posted (8 years 10 months 3 weeks 12 hours ago) and read 2945 times:
Quoting Coal (Thread starter): Looks like the P.E. guys are starting to get an interest on airlines.
This has been going on for some time. TPG - the firm interested in putting together a bid for Iberia - has bid for Qantas, and a while back bought Continental and America West. TPG and other PE firms also expressed interest in Alitalia.
Cerberus - not a PE firm but a hedge fund - has been instrumental in the turn around of Air Canada.
BBC is saying that BA may be forced to make a "defensive" bid. I'm shocked no-one is replying - a BA/IB tie-up would be big news, surely?! Personally, I hope that BA gets Iberia, rather than a private equity group. Mainly because I do not want BA to be left in the dust by huge European airline conglomerates like AF-KLM and LH, with it's myriad subsidiaries.
Dme From Portugal, joined Mar 2004, 110 posts, RR: 0
Reply 8, posted (8 years 10 months 3 weeks 10 hours ago) and read 2759 times:
As I talked some time ago (http://airliners.net/discussions/general_aviation/read.main/3320495/?searchid=3320495&s=dme#ID3320495), things have began to move. I foresee that in the next future we will see three parts fighting for IB (but not only for IB). These will be TPG (QF), BA and LH, but there exists the possibility that any two could join to offer a global strategy (QF/BA/IB or QF/LH/IB). I dont think that the four could join (but it remains a possibility). IB is a healthy private company, has a lot of cash (do not forget that IB could be the first to move) and is a very good bride. Because of that IB can in some way choose the groom.
The future. In my opinion will be BA/IB (BA can choose going for North America but I think that it is more profitably going for IB) plus perhaps QF. It will depend if 1) TPG bids for IB now (even in that case BA can wait and join QF/IB) and 2) which will be the response of LH. If BA joins IB and possibly QF, LH would remain in a very bad position. Even if LH goes for Alitalia, this last company is in a very bad moment with a not very bright future and should be something like a ballast for a long time.
COEI2007 From Vanuatu, joined Jan 2007, 1912 posts, RR: 5
Reply 9, posted (8 years 10 months 3 weeks 9 hours ago) and read 2710 times:
I think BA will get IB, imho. Maybe BA can then go about trying to improve IB's service!!!! With Open-skies etc, BA will suffer with the increased competition ex LHR to the USA, so IB and its focus on South America, could give BA an oppertunity to counter decreasing revenue on TA routes with increased South Am routes!
I can't see a BA/LH tie-up - the 2 carriers are too huge (and LH already controls several other European carriers), plus they are important members of different alliances.
If TPG get IB and QF, could they also go for BA and have a truly global airline network to their name? There was an article floating around on here a couple of weeks ago saying that now BA's pensions are sorted, it's a very attractive take-over target for private investors...