Quickmover From United States of America, joined Mar 2004, 2478 posts, RR: 0 Reply 2, posted (6 years 8 months 3 weeks 1 day 11 hours ago) and read 4906 times:
I don't know. If the rest of the institutions are thinking like Octavian was last week, it might happen. You have to wonder if FL has contacted the institutions on the fence to find out how much it would take.
TedEx From United States of America, joined Apr 2005, 149 posts, RR: 0 Reply 4, posted (6 years 8 months 3 weeks 1 day 11 hours ago) and read 4876 times:
From the article:
Quote: AirTran's flight operations have long been centered at Atlanta's Hartsfield-Jackson International Airport. It has fruitlessly sought a central hub near Chicago for several years to diversify its customer base and extend the reach of its rapidly expanding fleet of Boeing 717s and new 737s.
I'm Chicago based and I took my first YX flight this weekend. I'll just say that I wouldn't be likely to make the trip up to MKE to fly AirTran.
MUWarriors From United States of America, joined May 2005, 290 posts, RR: 0 Reply 8, posted (6 years 8 months 3 weeks 1 day 10 hours ago) and read 4781 times:
This will get interesting. Does FL have to announce where they are with tendered shares now that they changed the offer? I do think we will soon find out how far YX is willing to take the Poison Pill. I still have serious doubts about FL's plans, but I also think this offer will sway some shareholders as this is an increase in cash, not stock (in fact it is a slight decrease in stock). FL is now starting to put some of their own cash on the line instead of just taking cash out of YX. I am curious to see where this will go from here. I still think YX will hold out, but we shall see.
BAW2198 From United States of America, joined Dec 2003, 637 posts, RR: 4 Reply 9, posted (6 years 8 months 3 weeks 1 day 9 hours ago) and read 4711 times:
If anything I see YX's stock price falling first until after the poison pill gets enacted. Then I have a hunch after the poison pill , we're going to see the stock rally. Mind you, thats just a hunch, but if you think of it, the poison pill might rally YX's customer base more then FL is willing to think about.
"And remember, Keep your stick on the ice"--->Red Green
Mikey711MN From United States of America, joined Nov 2003, 1381 posts, RR: 8 Reply 10, posted (6 years 8 months 3 weeks 1 day 8 hours ago) and read 4663 times:
Quoting BAW2198 (Reply 9): If anything I see YX's stock price falling first until after the poison pill gets enacted.
Really? The offer is $15/share (at present FL stock price) while YX closed at $13.51. Only until FL pulls their bid, I would guess that shares of MEH will be quite active--and probably growing--tomorrow morning.
DeltaDAWG From United States of America, joined May 2006, 716 posts, RR: 1 Reply 15, posted (6 years 8 months 3 weeks 1 day ago) and read 4540 times:
Quoting TedEx (Reply 4): I'm Chicago based and I took my first YX flight this weekend. I'll just say that I wouldn't be likely to make the trip up to MKE to fly AirTran.
You don't have to. Pop over to MDW!
Out of curiosity, does anyone know how many institutions or large shareholders there are and how much they stock they control?
And does anyone here have YX stock that they would be willing to tender at $15 + the FL stock? Personally, it's starting to look very tempting to tender mine. I like YX and the service level they offer. Typically, I fly YX at least once per month sometimes twice from ATL-MKE-CWA r/t. The level of service they give far outweighs the other carrier that serves CWA. However, I bought 335 shares back in late '04 and another 100 in Dec. '05 and I could put that to good use on another stock to give me a good return. I personally do not believe that FL will shut MKE down as so many believe. I do think they will eventually cut some service to the small communities in WI/MI such as Muskegon, Rhinelander and Escanaba. But overall the seats offered will go up as well to some degree in MCI.
For some, try to detach yourself from the situation and look at the return on investment aspect. If I was a shareholder in one of the companies that holds a significant holding of YX and they did not take advantage of a profitable situation to make a decent profit for the bottom line and be able to pass along some dividends I would be pissed.
I like both of these airlines, they both have their strengths and weaknesses. If this is going to happen maybe both can benefit each other.
AirTran Increases Tender Offer to Midwest Shareholders
Substantial Increase to $15 per Share Represents 83 Percent Premium Above Midwest Stock Prior to Initial
OfferORLANDO, Fla., April 2 /PRNewswire-FirstCall/ -- AirTran Holdings, Inc. (NYSE: AAI), the parent company of AirTran Airways, today announced that it has substantially increased its offer to purchase all of the outstanding shares of Midwest Air Group (Amex: MEH), to $15.00 per Midwest share, based on the closing price of AirTran common stock on March 30, 2007. The offer consists of $9.00 in cash and 0.5842 of a share of AirTran common stock for each Midwest share. The total equity value of the exchange offer is $389 million.
Quickmover From United States of America, joined Mar 2004, 2478 posts, RR: 0 Reply 19, posted (6 years 8 months 3 weeks 23 hours ago) and read 4409 times:
Quoting DeltaDAWG (Reply 15): For some, try to detach yourself from the situation and look at the return on investment aspect. If I was a shareholder in one of the companies that holds a significant holding of YX and they did not take advantage of a profitable situation to make a decent profit for the bottom line and be able to pass along some dividends I would be pissed.
Leonard has said before that they are going to stop bidding against themselves, but that was before the Octavian announcement last week. Granted, they only represent 5%, but you have to believe that FL has talked with Octavian and other institutions. My guess is that someone substantial has communicated to FL that $15 would swing their votes. Only time will tell if it's enough votes, but I doubt raising the bid happened without some communication with a major shareholder.
Knope2001 From United States of America, joined May 2005, 2659 posts, RR: 30 Reply 20, posted (6 years 8 months 3 weeks 23 hours ago) and read 4408 times:
While AirTran probably has little choice but to up their offer or walk away, they are effectively competing with themselves here. If I'm a shareholder, why should I think this $15 is the best I'll be able to do?
As for the "everybody has their price" perspective, that's undoubtedly true. However that doesn't really tell us much about what that price is or if it is anything AirTran will eventually offer. Neither does this 3rd public takeover price really give us a whole lot to work with. Just because it is their 3rd offer does not mean it is approaching what the MEH BoD would consider a reasonable price. Say AirTran's offer #2 had been $12.00 and today's offer #3 had been $13.00. By virtue of that being offer #3, some might think "c'mon, $13.00 has to be getting close...they've upped the offer twice now". But in fact we know that the January bid of $13.25 wasn't near enough. So just because this is offer #3 that does not mean it is getting close to the point which the BoD believes is fair. We know it is getting closER, but it could in theory still be miles short.
Cubsrule From United States of America, joined May 2004, 21817 posts, RR: 19 Reply 21, posted (6 years 8 months 3 weeks 22 hours ago) and read 4332 times:
Here's an interesting nugget.
"AirTran further noted that investors who wish to vote at the Annual Meeting must purchase or trade Midwest shares by Tuesday, April 3, 2007, to be a shareholder by the record date."
So there's not much time for any new players to force something via a proxy fight at the annual meeting.
I don't know how much more cash FL can really raise for this thing. Their stock performance since December (off about 20%) means that they have to pour more cash into the deal for it to have equal value. I wonder if AAI's decline explains this:
Quoting Mainland (Reply 18):
As of 5pm March 7th, 1,777,638 shares were tendered
As of 5pm March 30th, 1,703,151 shares were tendered
Surely, folks did tender during March. That number should be inching up. Inching down is not a good sign.
I can't decide whether I miss the tulip or the bowling shoe more
Jibblets From United States of America, joined Jan 2007, 38 posts, RR: 0 Reply 22, posted (6 years 8 months 3 weeks 22 hours ago) and read 4309 times:
Quoting Mainland (Reply 18): As of 5pm March 7th, 1,777,638 shares were tendered
As of 5pm March 30th, 1,703,151 shares were tendered
I'm not surprised at all. Look at the number of shares that Octavian was able to acquire in the past few months. Investors aren't stupid. The value of the deal hinges on the price of AAI's stock, which has fallen precipitously and consistently in the past six months. By un-tendering their shares selling outright to Octavian or whoever was buying on the speculation of a better deal, the smaller investors got a better deal than a potential sale to AirTran would have netted. AirTran has not done itself any favors by continuing to extend the deadline, though it obviously has little choice. A whole lot of smaller-volume investors in MEH are going to make a tidy profit, but it's not going to come from tendering now to AAI and waiting another month to see if it works out.
DeltaDAWG From United States of America, joined May 2006, 716 posts, RR: 1 Reply 23, posted (6 years 8 months 3 weeks 22 hours ago) and read 4310 times:
Quoting Knope2001 (Reply 20): So just because this is offer #3 that does not mean it is getting close to the point which the BoD believes is fair. We know it is getting closER, but it could in theory still be miles short.
But it also gives YX a message that FL is getting toward the end of their bid patience. If FL pulls out, the YX BOD has got to know that their stock will drop, most likely down into the $9-$10 range possibly a little lower, quite a significant loss of value.
As a rule of thumb, you typically take a profit of 30% and up and run with it. I would guess that the vast majority of shareholders bought their shares in the $8-$9 range, just a guess based on running average over the last year or two - and that's being somewhat generous since YX stock never got over $6 from mid '02 til second half of '05. At $15, that's an approximate 76% return on your investment based on a $8.50 buy price. Even at a $13 buy, the current offer would be an approximate 15.5% return on investment. If someone bought their stock at the low point of '04-'05 at say around $3.60/share then they would be looking at around 310% return in 2-3 years of investment.
Yes, everyone has their price but the YX BOD has to make the determination of whether the current bid is acceptable to vast majority of shareholders, not thinking about their job and their wife's cookie business.
Cubsrule From United States of America, joined May 2004, 21817 posts, RR: 19 Reply 24, posted (6 years 8 months 3 weeks 21 hours ago) and read 4292 times:
Quoting DeltaDAWG (Reply 23): If FL pulls out, the YX BOD has got to know that their stock will drop, most likely down into the $9-$10 range possibly a little lower, quite a significant loss of value.
There's no way the stock drops below $10, and I think it would actually settle closer to $11. I've got to run to class, but there are a couple of good reasons for this, and I'd be happy to explain them later.
I can't decide whether I miss the tulip or the bowling shoe more
25 Jaws707: I really hope this merger goes through soon. I think the current price is fair. I know Midwest wants more, but think about it, the more Airtran contin
26 Daus: And bear in mind these are only the offers that were public. This is for sure at least the fourth offer. The bidding starting way down in the low sin
27 Knope2001: Here's how I see things at this point. Most smaller investors who are interested in the deal have long since cashed in. And why wouldn't they? When Ai
28 AirTran717: Never a dull moment here on A.net. LOL Like anything else, based on money, it talks and everything else walks. The bottom line is money, not public o
29 Daus: MONDAY, April 2, 2007, 11:37 a.m. By Avrum D. Lank Midwest to respond to AirTran by April 13 The board of Midwest Air Group Inc. (MEH) will make a rec
30 TSRA: So the circle of the YX/FL merger life begins again. Let me guess..... YX BoD will say it is not enough money and their expansion plan is better for t
31 B737700doctor: " The Board of Directors of Midwest Air Group, Inc. (Amex: MEH - News), parent company of Midwest Airlines, today requested that its shareholders take
32 F9Animal: I am very fond of Air Tran, but I also have a love for Midwest. Both airlines have a totally different culture, and I really would miss seeing Midwes
33 Srbmod: This may be the offer that opens the flood gates. Some of the institutional investors were lukewarm to the original offer and gave indications that th
34 Quickmover: Confirmed here. Looks like this is the final offer. Also interesting that institutions are communicating with Leonard. From Yahoo: AirTran Makes Fina
35 Sideflare75: Except AirTran doesn't own more than 200 shares of YX stock I believe. I don't think that will have much affect on the price. Will the price drop? Su
36 Gr8SlvrFlt: ORLANDO, Fla., April 2 /PRNewswire-FirstCall/ -- AirTran Holdings, Inc. (NYSE: AAI), the parent company of AirTran Airways, today issued the following
37 Cubsrule: Joe is full of shit. The stock was trading at $9.25 when the offer was announced. YX's actions in the past 3 months, namely expansion and signing up
38 WestJetYQQ: I have said it Before, I will say it again! I am sick and tired of all this talk of airline mergers! I know most of you probably agree. Airlines shoul
39 Mariner: Don't include me in that, because I don't agree. It's just sentimentality to expect the airline world to stay the same. I feel sorry for any airline
40 JBo: In lieu of your sentiments, it should be stated that Midwest isn't declining. If anything, they've reached the nadir of their decline and are on thei
41 AirTranTPAramp: i have a feeling, that this is the nail in the coffin for Midwest! we have a lot of cash hungry investors in this country and i know some of you midwe
42 Cubsrule: There are two possible outcomes at MKE: 1) FL drops MKE like a bad habit 2) NW destroys FL (like Florida is destroying OSU right now). It would not a
43 Sideflare75: Nah we won't bash you for your opinion. That is all it is after all. Besides didn't you get bashed enough the other day for posting on Anet while che
44 Mariner: I didn't suggest - or didn't intend to suggest - that Midwest is declining. BOAC wasn't "declining" either. If you mean my comments about TWA, that w
45 JBo: Wasn't necessarily implying you suggested that sentiment, I just felt it was worth mention for the viewers at home. That may be, but Midwest still ha
46 Tedex: Found on Midwest's site today... I didn't see it posted here, so I hope you enjoy: http://www.midwestairlines.com/MAWeb...assets/pdfs/MilwaukeeAirTrav
47 Mikey711MN: If this article is any indicator, investors are liking what they see. -Mike
48 Mainland: Two things to discount/note from that article -- 1. I'd discount anything Marisa Thompson from Morningstar has to say. She and Morningstar have practi
49 Knope2001: Indeed....the link a few posts up to MIdwest's comments on AirTran's proposed MKE service is pretty clear. They don't think it has a chance, both bec
50 Mikey711MN: In all honesty, if one were to take Carol's comments as the gospel truth [which I don't], how can any business operate in Wisconsin? With this same l
51 Knope2001: Here's what I said again. Your example is saying that the community interests are to be considered OVER the interests of the shareholders. If that we
52 AirTran737: Well here were are over 24 hours after the announcement, and they YX stock did climb, but hasn't gotten to $15.00 yet. It is actually down since the o
53 Knope2001: As I said back in post 27, I think that's the collective wisdom of the market saying they doubt this deal will happen. If the market saw this offer as
54 Mikey711MN: Whether or not its part of state statute is irrelevant to my argument: whether it's part of the law or part of the perception, the bottom line remain
55 Knope2001: You're right that we're getting off-topic here and starting to debate nuances of business and business governence philosophy, but I'll toss in two tho
56 MUWarriors: Carol was speaking the truth on this matter. Below is the statute and link: http://www.legis.state.wi.us/statutes/Stat0180.pdf Now, is this good for
57 OttoPylit: If Spirit were to try and acquire Frontier, to see Frontier absorbed into Spirit Airlines, would you be against it then? Would you not miss them? Bin
58 Cubsrule: Well, the fact that it says "may" rather than "must" makes it significantly less bad for business. That ought to satisfy Mike, who seems concerned ab
59 Mariner: I was wondering when someone would bring that up. You were on my list of those who would. Of course, I'd "miss" Frontier. But if Spirit could someone
60 Xkorpyoh: This is a presentation from Air Tran about the merger. It includes the combined route map (not a good one, but you get the idea). http://library.corpo
61 Cubsrule: What a horrendous comparison (I say as I'll be flying CLT-MKE on Friday). Charlotte has a 550 flight/day legacy hub, and the two are nothing alike in
62 Ilovenz: I am a Wisconsinite. I am very very concerned about this merger. I realize in the short term, and even potentially in the long term for investors it i
63 JBo: That's perhaps the most amusing statement of the night. Midwest is an already-established carrier and serves an entirely different demographic than w
64 OttoPylit: Glad I could be of service. So, your admitting that your being hypocritical? I just wanted to hear it from you directly. Ah yes, because Frontier can
65 Mariner: How "hypocritical"? If Frontier is sold, Frontier is sold. I accept that. I said I did. ??? Not at all. Because they interest me, is all. I don't rea
66 Indy: At some point FL is going to end up spending far more than they can ever recover from YX. Look at the numbers out of MKE. It is very unimpressive. Do
67 Cubsrule: Which numbers? YX seems to be boarding enough passengers to make money (which is more than FL can say lately).
68 MSYtristar: People are forgetting that this is one of most ruthless industries out there. Working in the airline business is not for the faint of heart. I wept li
69 FlyDreamliner: Well, I see Midwest shareholders in a tenuous situation. If this offer fails, FL won't offer another. If the offer is retracted, the bottom is coming
70 Mainland: AirTran is going for the shareholder list again. Whereas before they were in court to get the list under a New York state law, this is a shareholder r
71 AirTran737: The letter was written by Dick Magurno. He is the Senior Vice President, General Counsel and Secretary for AirTran. http://investor.airtran.com/phoen
72 MSYtristar: Dick's a good guy. He really knows the industry.
73 OttoPylit: You say in one post that you don't miss carriers that are gone, but in the next post, you say that if Frontier was acquired, you would miss Frontier.
74 Mariner: I've no idea what this little foray into the off-topic personal is all about - other than being personal - but please re-read the original post: I do
75 MSYtristar: I guess they could think about that if they wanted to. But since there's no guarantee that FL will pull out of MKE (it's all assumptions at this poin
76 OttoPylit: Haha, try not to flatter yourself so much. You made a statement in your original post that I knew you were not holding to truth, and I chose to chall
77 Daus: Let's play selfish Milwaukee executive math shall we? Let's start with the assumption that our executive wants to fly comfortably, direct from MKE to
78 OttoPylit: First of all, I must say, that is one of the best posts I have seen from you in a long time. Impressive...oops, mariner is going to kill me for that.
79 Mariner: No, sir. You made an assumption that you think is correct. Each one of the quotes you list remains valid. But, you you seem to have trouble with the
80 SkyexRamper: Quoting Daus (Reply 77): But why would a big shot CEO have to personally pay for his most likely company trips to NYC? And I don't think $4500 per yea
81 MSYtristar: Well, I guess every airline can't be everything to everyone, right? I guess you missed my trip report generally prasing the big D on my recent trip t
82 Daus: At the corporate levels it's not as much about the actual dollars but the corporate travel policy. Nobody (except maybe the CEO) is going to get appr
83 Daus: Yes, the institutional guys shouldn't care about anything I said..... though... How may times a months does the Heartland guy fly YX?? Want to guess?
84 SkyexRamper: I cashed out recently taking the money because I needed it and in the process turned at $550 profit. It's not a choice of money or loyalty because you
85 Indy: FL is going to take those jets and run. YX has a unique product and loyal customers yet they scrape by. So FL wants to buy that product, change the n
86 Sideflare75: I think you've hit the nail on the head.
87 MSYtristar: To be honest, if the merger went through and people of MKE stopped flying FL due to the lesser service, that'd be pretty stupid. If they resent FL an
88 OttoPylit: Again, you are contradicting yourself: ...and yet you say: Back and forth, round and round you go again. I find it amusing you actually believe yourse
89 Mariner: I was simply comparing my debating style to yours: Since you refuse to comprehend what I have written, and/or say that I am "not telling the truth" -
90 Mikey711MN: Indy, I mean this in the most respectful way possible, but we've covered this in so many other YX/FL threads, yet with this assertion neither you nor
91 Cubsrule: You may regard it as stupid, but it's exactly what folks in Milwaukee have done time and time again. I can't explain it, and I've lived most of my li
92 Mikey711MN: I wasn't...read my entire paragraph again and you'll see that I was spelling out through indirect reasoning that FL's attempt at TZ assets in MDW wer
93 Cubsrule: If it's not a plane grab, what is it? Their projections for Milwaukee have no basis in fact.
94 MSYtristar: But clearly they wouldn't expand to the level of service which YX offered...or what would initially be offered by FL. In the end, the consumers would
95 MrSTL: Here's a plan: Draw a triangle between STL, MCI and MKE. Effectively capture O&D from three moderate sized midwest markets, offer nonstop or quick on
96 N917me: FL's vision for MKE is distorted at best. How in the hell do they plan increasing service to markets that are already marginal at best? Secondly, Joe
97 Mikey711MN: Personally, I think it's a sincere attempt at establishing a pre-packaged midwestern regional presence (if only a Plan B to the attempt at acquiring
98 N917ME: FL has stated publically, cookies will not be "baked" on board..as they have no intentions on installing costly ovens soley for the purpose of warmin
99 Mikey711MN: Which is why I was very particular in my choice of words. The brand is on the cookie, not on the oven. FL has shown both the lack of fortitude to sti
100 Indy: I always wondered why FL did that. The way they were adding point to point service all over the place it wouldn't make sense to decline those options
101 Cubsrule: The brand is in the HOT cookie. Therein lies the problem. I don't know about that. Why do they fly MDW-CLT but not MDW-RDU? Why aren't they in BNA (a
102 Knope2001: I agree that AirTran's intentions are honest about Milwaukee in that they want to build a hub here. (I do question their tenacity if things don't go
103 Mainland: And Midwest replies to AirTran's request. They're not explicitly saying AirTran can't have the list, just that they'll have to wait for it: Richard P.
104 Cubsrule: I'll be curious to see if FL tries to get heavy-handed again. MEH's reading of the statute is correct, so FL should be screwed (again).
105 HeavyMx1: How are they screwed? YX will have to give them the list soon. FL just has to wait for the notice of the annual meeting to be mailed them YX will hav
106 Mainland: Agreed, barring something very out of the ordinary coming up, AirTran should be entitled to the list. The preliminary proxy was filed on March 30th,
107 MDW717: I tend to stay out of these FL/YX discussions mostly because of a lack of high quality, well-reasoned posts like these. Welcome to my RU list. And no
108 Mikey711MN: Thank you for the compliment and for the add. You should consider leaving him off of the "but the cookies" list...with no disrespect to the others yo
109 MDW717: With apologies to those who I mentioned, let me clarify. I wasn't referring just to those who are sad to see the cookies go, just to those who are re
110 Srbmod: Since this thread is taking the path of previous threads on this subject, it is now being locked.