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Next "new" Customer For B787  
User currently offlineMptpa From United States of America, joined Feb 2006, 546 posts, RR: 0
Posted (7 years 5 months 3 weeks 19 hours ago) and read 12917 times:

Since we had been speculating on what the Apr 03rd news conference was all about, and came up empty handed, why don't we start a thread to guess/speculate who the next "new" customer for this type would be. Existing customers exercising options or making top-off orders do not count, but go ahead and state if you have good source. I am wondering if Boeing will reach 600 by the time Paris Air Show rolls on. Wouldn't it be really something and unprecedented in the commercial aviation history?

So let the spec begin....

Here is mine: AA for 35 firm+55 options and other obscene quantities of purchase rights.

MP_Tampa

46 replies: All unread, showing first 25:
 
User currently offlineVgnAtl747 From United States of America, joined Apr 2001, 1513 posts, RR: 2
Reply 1, posted (7 years 5 months 3 weeks 19 hours ago) and read 12867 times:

I would expect to see an order from DL within 6-8 months of exiting ch11... although I really don't think they'll be the next order...

I think the AA order is probably quite likley...

Common sense told everyone VS wouldn't make the announcement today... in SRB style if/when VS orders them it'll be a public event with lots of people around... as much as I'd like to see VS order the 787 I'm still not convinced we'll see it... at least not in the short term...



Work Hard. Fly Right. Continental Airlines
User currently offlineKaitak From Ireland, joined Aug 1999, 12476 posts, RR: 37
Reply 2, posted (7 years 5 months 3 weeks 19 hours ago) and read 12767 times:

I would see Aer Lingus ordering fourteen within the next few weeks; whether it's the next one, I don't know, but the airline has said it would be placing an order in the first quarter. Airbus will fight hard, but I think Boeing will swing this one.

Other possibilities: Kuwait Airways. Its part-owned subsidiary ALAFCO, has ordered a good few 787s and it wouldn't surprise me to see KU order some of its own, directly, as well as taking some from ALAFCO.

Once one of the big US carriers places an order, the others won't be far behind; I see DL, AA and UA placing 787 orders.

Can't think of others in the near term; BA has said its going to place its big order next year and EK is waiting for Boeing and Airbus to launch the 787-10 and A350-1000, respectively, so I don't see much happening there.


User currently offlineAA787823 From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 3, posted (7 years 5 months 3 weeks 19 hours ago) and read 12734 times:

I dont think AA will order the 787 until it reaches an agreement with the APA. And right now given AA's employee relations. That will be a LOOOOOOONG time from now.

User currently offlinePanAm330 From United States of America, joined Mar 2004, 2679 posts, RR: 9
Reply 4, posted (7 years 5 months 3 weeks 19 hours ago) and read 12694 times:

Over on Flyertalk, rumor has it that DL will be announcing an order for 30 frames in the immediate future, and they're already on Boeing's books. I'm excited, but I'm not sure if it's true or not- don't shoot the messenger!  Wink

User currently offlineAA1818 From Trinidad and Tobago, joined Feb 2006, 3435 posts, RR: 4
Reply 5, posted (7 years 5 months 3 weeks 18 hours ago) and read 12525 times:

Quoting PanAm330 (Reply 4):
and they're already on Boeing's books.

its possible that Boeing may have reserved slots for them and that negotiations are nearing closure, but I highly doubt they would be on the books since the Books only show 32 orders Unidentified and those are for 2,2,2,11 and 15 787s. I don't doubt that DL is ordering 787, what I doubt is that it is on the books- perhaps on Thursday Boeing will post a new UFO for 30 frames!!!

AA1818



“The moment you doubt whether you can fly, you cease for ever to be able to do it.” J.M. Barrie (Peter Pan)
User currently offlinePanAm330 From United States of America, joined Mar 2004, 2679 posts, RR: 9
Reply 6, posted (7 years 5 months 3 weeks 18 hours ago) and read 12494 times:

Quoting AA1818 (Reply 5):
its possible that Boeing may have reserved slots

That's what I meant! Screwed my words up! Sorry all! :-p


User currently offlineLumberton From United States of America, joined Jul 2005, 4708 posts, RR: 20
Reply 7, posted (7 years 5 months 3 weeks 17 hours ago) and read 12344 times:

I posted this here:
Special Dreamliner Announcement Tomorrow (3Apr07) (by Lumberton Apr 2 2007 in Civil Aviation)

Quoting Lumberton (Reply 131):
According to the Wikipedia entry on 787 orders, there were 32 UFOs before today's announcement.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Boeing_787_orders
If Boeing now has 514 firm orders, up from 491 at last count, that would represent an increase of 23, of which 5 are for JAL, leaving 18 more UFOs. 18 + 32 = 50 UFOs as of today.
The same Wikipedia web site identifies 40 customers, leaving 3 customers for the UFOs. If I have this right, there could be some nice orders here--possibly a U.S. legacy?
Edit: Boeing advised in their press release they had 43 total customers for the 787.

Not sure if I have this right, but I suspect that there is an AA, DL, or UA in here somewhere!



"When all is said and done, more will be said than done".
User currently offlineMD90fan From Bahamas, joined Jul 2005, 2931 posts, RR: 7
Reply 8, posted (7 years 5 months 3 weeks 16 hours ago) and read 12144 times:

Bahamasair for 2 787-8s and 4 73Gs  bigthumbsup   crossfingers 


http://www.devanwells.blogspot.com/
User currently offlineRoyalAtlantis From United States of America, joined Nov 2006, 102 posts, RR: 0
Reply 9, posted (7 years 5 months 3 weeks 16 hours ago) and read 12034 times:

Quoting Kaitak (Reply 2):
I would see Aer Lingus ordering fourteen within the next few weeks; whether it's the next one, I don't know, but the airline has said it would be placing an order in the first quarter. Airbus will fight hard, but I think Boeing will swing this one.

WOW - I'd be surprised by that - though the 787 is the perfect plane for them most of the year. If I were Aer Lingus, I'd offer frequency with 787 vs. less with a larger aircraft.

Quoting VgnAtl747 (Reply 1):
Common sense told everyone VS wouldn't make the announcement today...

I thought that Mr. Branson was 4 engines 4 long-haul...which I've heard has now morphed to "green" -- but, alas -- isn't he still a huge airbus sas fan?? though, i agree that the plane family is perfect for VS - from 788-9-10.

Quoting AA1818 (Reply 5):
its possible that Boeing may have reserved slots for them and that negotiations are nearing closure

I'd be SHOCKED if the U.S. legacy carriers have not worked out some deal with Boeing. After all -- how are UA/DL/AA going to remain competitive while watching their inefficient gas-guzzling workhorses get older and older? I would not be surprised if there's some padding somewhere or another assembly line in the works to accomodate huge orders from these carriers. AA just started replacing the 300+ fleet of MD80's (thank God) with 738's and 737NG's ...but how about the 757-767 fleets of UA/DL/AA?? They are old, expensive to operate aircraft in comparison to the gains of efficiency that the 787 offers. Now it's just up to financing (and crossed fingers that a similar 9-11 will not occur), I'd bet that banks/leasing co's will give plenty of financing to the big boys.

And, on a similar front - PLEASE BA -- GET THOSE 787's!!!

Lastly, don't forget about more from QF, Chinese AL's (including China Airlines), AC, IB and others.


User currently offlineChiGB1973 From United States of America, joined Mar 2004, 1615 posts, RR: 1
Reply 10, posted (7 years 5 months 3 weeks 15 hours ago) and read 11872 times:

Quoting Kaitak (Reply 2):
Once one of the big US carriers places an order, the others won't be far behind; I see DL, AA and UA placing 787 orders.

NW and CO aren't big enough?

I see the other three placing orders too, but not for a few years. Certainly DL has no money to spend on new aircraft, AA and UA are questionable. This is a tough one for U.S. carriers. None are really in a financial position to get anything right now. It is just going to get worse this summer with fuel prices.

UA is in need of widebodies just for expansion. With their utilization of widebodies, I put them above AA. AA can stand to wait a few more years than UA, just because they do not have such a high utilization rate. Then again, AA might be in a bit of a better financial position. It is a close second.

DL may order the 77W and 787, but taking delivery is another question. I just do not believe DL will survive (without another bankruptcy) if they go spending money on a fleet they really do not need. The 77L is pretty much a need for DL now, plus with the conversion of 777 orders, probably a good idea, but anything else would not be wise. DL has a huge widebody fleet that has been underutilized for years. I am not sure they are doing what they need to as far as getting more of their widebody fleet off of domestic routes.

I have to add a standard disclosure when I say anything "bad" about DL, I am not against them, I just believe that to be true. I hope the best for the DL employees and DL itself.

M


User currently offlineMCIGuy From United States of America, joined Mar 2006, 1936 posts, RR: 0
Reply 11, posted (7 years 5 months 3 weeks 15 hours ago) and read 11691 times:

Quoting ChiGB1973 (Reply 10):
I see the other three placing orders too, but not for a few years. Certainly DL has no money to spend on new aircraft, AA and UA are questionable. This is a tough one for U.S. carriers. None are really in a financial position to get anything right now. It is just going to get worse this summer with fuel prices.

UA is in need of widebodies just for expansion. With their utilization of widebodies, I put them above AA. AA can stand to wait a few more years than UA, just because they do not have such a high utilization rate. Then again, AA might be in a bit of a better financial position. It is a close second.

DL may order the 77W and 787, but taking delivery is another question. I just do not believe DL will survive (without another bankruptcy) if they go spending money on a fleet they really do not need. The 77L is pretty much a need for DL now, plus with the conversion of 777 orders, probably a good idea, but anything else would not be wise. DL has a huge widebody fleet that has been underutilized for years. I am not sure they are doing what they need to as far as getting more of their widebody fleet off of domestic routes.

Yeah, but, there has been much buzz around AA and the 787 of late. It's already confirmed that they've reserved slots and with their "preferred customer" status, they're probably sooner rather than later. I'm not sure the initial order will be for 100 frames, and they may not be the very next new customer for the type, but I do look for an AA order any time now. There haven't even been any rumors of UA reserving 787 slots, not that I know of anyway. I'm not saying they don't have them but if they do, it's a well-kept secret.



Airliners.net Moderator Team
User currently offlineATLflyer From United States of America, joined Jan 2006, 736 posts, RR: 0
Reply 12, posted (7 years 5 months 3 weeks 15 hours ago) and read 11353 times:

I hope DL orders 25 with an option for 30 or so more...then they could replace the 767s within 10 years (even though most of them are in good condition.)

User currently offlineEI321 From Iraq, joined Jul 2009, 0 posts, RR: 0
Reply 13, posted (7 years 5 months 3 weeks 14 hours ago) and read 10837 times:

Ive my fingers crossed for EI - announcement is due before June. 7

787 emissions + that livery = the greenest plane in the sky!


User currently offlineMCIGuy From United States of America, joined Mar 2006, 1936 posts, RR: 0
Reply 14, posted (7 years 5 months 3 weeks 14 hours ago) and read 10771 times:

Quoting EI321 (Reply 13):
787 emissions + that livery = the greenest plane in the sky!

Nice association, would've never thought of it!  Smile



Airliners.net Moderator Team
User currently offlineOA260 From Ireland, joined Nov 2006, 26999 posts, RR: 57
Reply 15, posted (7 years 5 months 3 weeks 14 hours ago) and read 10654 times:

Quoting EI321 (Reply 13):
Ive my fingers crossed for EI - announcement is due before June. 7

787 emissions + that livery = the greenest plane in the sky!

Would look good alright but im not convinced that EI will go for it . No one knows what makes the toffs at EI click.


User currently offlineBoeingFever777 From United States of America, joined Jul 2009, 409 posts, RR: 53
Reply 16, posted (7 years 5 months 3 weeks 14 hours ago) and read 10316 times:

Quoting Kaitak (Reply 2):
Once one of the big US carriers places an order, the others won't be far behind; I see DL, AA and UA placing 787 orders.

What about CO & NW?  Confused

Quoting Kaitak (Reply 2):
I would see Aer Lingus ordering fourteen within the next few weeks; whether it's the next one, I don't know, but the airline has said it would be placing an order in the first quarter. Airbus will fight hard, but I think Boeing will swing this one.

I have heard about this too... Not knowing how much to read into an all Airbus carrier ordering 787's but it is possible for their new expansion to N. America.



Faire du ciel le plus bel endroit de la terre.
User currently onlineER757 From Cayman Islands, joined May 2005, 2526 posts, RR: 7
Reply 17, posted (7 years 5 months 3 weeks 13 hours ago) and read 10181 times:

I'll go way, way out on a limb and guess IB

User currently offlineJfk777 From United States of America, joined Aug 2006, 8375 posts, RR: 7
Reply 18, posted (7 years 5 months 3 weeks 13 hours ago) and read 10085 times:
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With the Paris Air Show just two months away, it will be how can Airbus out do Boeing. I say that because in the last few years with the 787, Boeing has been converting Airbus customers like Air Canada.

User currently offlineMCIGuy From United States of America, joined Mar 2006, 1936 posts, RR: 0
Reply 19, posted (7 years 5 months 3 weeks 13 hours ago) and read 10058 times:

Quoting Jfk777 (Reply 18):
the Paris Air Show just two months away, it will be how can Airbus out do Boeing.

Unless they've been keeping some really BIG secrets, I don't see any way they can right now.



Airliners.net Moderator Team
User currently onlineER757 From Cayman Islands, joined May 2005, 2526 posts, RR: 7
Reply 20, posted (7 years 5 months 3 weeks 13 hours ago) and read 10018 times:

Quoting MCIGuy (Reply 19):
Quoting Jfk777 (Reply 18):
the Paris Air Show just two months away, it will be how can Airbus out do Boeing.

Unless they've been keeping some really BIG secrets, I don't see any way they can right now.

I think you can pretty much count on Airbus to announce some "really big secrets" in Paris. They are well known for making big announcements at air shows.


User currently offlineMCIGuy From United States of America, joined Mar 2006, 1936 posts, RR: 0
Reply 21, posted (7 years 5 months 3 weeks 13 hours ago) and read 9980 times:

Quoting ER757 (Reply 20):
think you can pretty much count on Airbus to announce some "really big secrets" in Paris. They are well known for making big announcements at air shows.

Sure, absolutely, but will it be enough to overshadow the 787 fervor? The 514 order mark aside, that will be just weeks before roll out and just a couple of months before first flight of the 787.  Smile



Airliners.net Moderator Team
User currently offlineLTU932 From Germany, joined Jan 2006, 13864 posts, RR: 50
Reply 22, posted (7 years 5 months 3 weeks 13 hours ago) and read 9744 times:

My money is still on LH launching the 787-10 plus ordering a few -8s for DE.

User currently offlineSTT757 From United States of America, joined Mar 2000, 16872 posts, RR: 51
Reply 23, posted (7 years 5 months 3 weeks 13 hours ago) and read 9652 times:

Swiss, Lloyd Aereo Boliviano, Aer Lingus, EVA Airways, China Air, Lan Chile, Malaysian, SAS, Aer Lingus.


Eastern Air lines flt # 701, EWR-MCO Boeing 757
User currently offlineFXramper From United States of America, joined Dec 2005, 7298 posts, RR: 85
Reply 24, posted (7 years 5 months 3 weeks 13 hours ago) and read 9631 times:
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Two words: Paris Airshow

25 LTU932 : They're all Airbus in their mainline fleet. I only see a very remote chance that they'll go for the 787. They're close to shutdown. They're definitel
26 Mah584jr : US Airways is supposed to make an announcement by April 30th on long haul aircraft orders. Maybe they will order some 787s.
27 ER757 : Well I guess it depends on what you'd consider as Airbus "out-doing" Boeing at the show. Let's say A announces a dozen A380's for BA and a shedload o
28 Kbdude : Well... last week, Boeing had 491 firm order from 39 customers. According to Tuesday's April 3rd press release... Boeing has now 514 firm orders from
29 Jano : NW? They will order more 787s once they leave BK. They have those 50 options.
30 HighFlyer9790 : Eventually, a US customer WILL order the 787. it is just a matter of time and money. CO and NW have already ordered it. UA, DL, and AA are all big 767
31 EA772LR : When will Boeing identify the UFO 787 orders?
32 Asuflyer : Dosen't Lan still have 767 on order?
33 Post contains images AsstChiefMark : This isn't a big US carrier? I wonder who you think is big enough to be considered "one of the big US carriers?"
34 Post contains images FXramper : Agreed.
35 LTU932 : There is an order for 3 763s by LAN that was made just about a year ago, so maybe they still do, though I don't know if they have been delivered yet.
36 BoeingFever777 : Yeah i guess... When will that be? I would think NW would want to get their finances on order and make a consistent profit for several qts. before bu
37 KLM685 : roftl roftl roftl Although I understand what you mean, it would be a good plane for them if the airline were to be in a good financial situation. But
38 Post contains images RootsAir : As for Latin America it would not surprise me if the custiomer is COPA
39 MCOflyer : too big an a/c unless its for european routes. MCOflyer
40 Post contains links and images AirEMS : How about a order for like 50 going to a re-constituted Pan AM (not the piddly one thats around now) or TWA?? That would be so cool!! Modified Airline
41 Algoz : United is committed to its current fleet size and equipment until 2010. No huge expansion is planned. As has happened in the past, United will have n
42 Post contains images Flysherwood : Do you really believe that an order for a dozen A380's will "out-do" Boeing's achievements with the 787 at the show? The question to Airbus is "Why h
43 777ER : Boeing have 15x UFO B787s booked recently. SRB has said that he wants B787s, and both dates are close to each other. A source of mine has confirmed t
44 MD90fan : I was being sarcastic, and if we got them I doubt they would be used on a MIA turn.
45 Algoz : Surely not - whatever happened to 4 engines 4 longhaul...............or is Mr Branson changing his mind again (as evidenced by his objections to open
46 EI321 : I think ER757 is refering to the A380 against the 747, and the A350 against the 787.
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