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UFO Boeing 787 Orders (part 2)  
User currently offlineKaitak744 From United States of America, joined Jul 2005, 2364 posts, RR: 3
Posted (7 years 3 months 3 weeks 3 days 1 hour ago) and read 5560 times:

A new recent development:

http://boeing.com/news/releases/2007/q2/070403d_nr.html

The article states that there are currently 514 airplanes from 43 customers. That means that of the unidentified 787 orders, only one of them is a new order. The other 3 are add-ons.

(my guess)
Unidentified 11 - Vietnam
Unidentified 2 - Air Canada
Unidentified 2 - Northwest
Unidentified 15 - Virgin Atlantic

31 replies: All unread, showing first 25:
 
User currently offlineAA1818 From Trinidad and Tobago, joined Feb 2006, 3429 posts, RR: 4
Reply 1, posted (7 years 3 months 3 weeks 3 days 1 hour ago) and read 5533 times:

Somewhere in there you need to include JAL for 5 more. The order total remains at 314 at 43. so perhaps 5 of the 15 are for JL leaving 10 for a new customer??

I agree with you on the VN and NW. I don't think AC will firm up in such small numbers. If anything one of the '2' orders is probably for a leasing company. Other guesses might include someone like AM or another small operator.

P.s. The other UFO 787 thread is only on 38 replies- I'm not sure there is need to start a new one- but whatever!!!

Cheers
AA1818



“The moment you doubt whether you can fly, you cease for ever to be able to do it.” J.M. Barrie (Peter Pan)
User currently offlineKaitak744 From United States of America, joined Jul 2005, 2364 posts, RR: 3
Reply 2, posted (7 years 3 months 3 weeks 3 days 1 hour ago) and read 5532 times:

Quoting AA1818 (Reply 1):
Somewhere in there you need to include JAL for 5 more. The order total remains at 314 at 43. so perhaps 5 of the 15 are for JL leaving 10 for a new customer??

The article says the 514 for 43 is inclusive of the JAL.


User currently offline2wingtips From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 3, posted (7 years 3 months 3 weeks 3 days 1 hour ago) and read 5515 times:

Before yesterday, I believe there were 491 787 orders from 39 customers. 5 more from JAL makes 496 orders. That means 4 new customers have signed for 18 more 787s.
VN is not for the 11 788s. They are almost 100% for TUI. Only yesterday, there was a press release indicating that VN were looking to add 4 more 787s and some ATRs to their fleet.


User currently offlineAA1818 From Trinidad and Tobago, joined Feb 2006, 3429 posts, RR: 4
Reply 4, posted (7 years 3 months 3 weeks 3 days 1 hour ago) and read 5512 times:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Boeing_787_orders

Unfortunately i was using that wikipedia site. And initially after the announcement, they added the JL order and increased the firm committments from 514 to 519. It has now been rectified. My apologies.

However, for the last few days it has been showing 514, without the JL and with 32 UFO orders, so how come with the JL x 5 it is still showing 514 orders and 32 UFOs? Was it their mathematical error or is there some doctoring going on there with the numbers?? Boeing therefore cracked 500 a few days ago, not today!!!

AA1818



“The moment you doubt whether you can fly, you cease for ever to be able to do it.” J.M. Barrie (Peter Pan)
User currently offlineKbdude From United States of America, joined Nov 2006, 154 posts, RR: 0
Reply 5, posted (7 years 3 months 3 weeks 3 days ago) and read 5449 times:

Quoting 2wingtips (Reply 3):
Before yesterday, I believe there were 491 787 orders from 39 customers. 5 more from JAL makes 496 orders. That means 4 new customers have signed for 18 more 787s.

I concur... as of a Boeing Press Release on Thursday Mar 29th... Boeing had 491 firm orders from 39 customers. Per todays press release, April 3rd, they have 514 firm orders from 43 customers....

Meaning, 18 new orders from 4 new airlines.

Mar 29th
http://www.boeing.com/commercial/news/2007/q1/070329a_nr.html

April 3rd
http://www.boeing.com/commercial/news/2007/q2/070403d_nr.html


Let the speculation begin!


User currently offlineDanny From Poland, joined Apr 2002, 3508 posts, RR: 2
Reply 6, posted (7 years 3 months 3 weeks 3 days ago) and read 5434 times:

Quoting Kaitak744 (Thread starter):
Unidentified 15 - Virgin Atlantic

I don't see why VS would downsize like that. It could be Aer Lingus (had RFP for 14 aircraft).


User currently offlineKaitak744 From United States of America, joined Jul 2005, 2364 posts, RR: 3
Reply 7, posted (7 years 3 months 3 weeks 3 days ago) and read 5425 times:

Quoting AA1818 (Reply 4):

Unfortunately i was using that wikipedia site. And initially after the announcement, they added the JL order and increased the firm committments from 514 to 519. It has now been rectified. My apologies.

However, for the last few days it has been showing 514, without the JL and with 32 UFO orders, so how come with the JL x 5 it is still showing 514 orders and 32 UFOs? Was it their mathematical error or is there some doctoring going on there with the numbers?? Boeing therefore cracked 500 a few days ago, not today!!!

The wikipedia page is accurate now, and it shows 514. Someone previously made an error and changed it before to something else.


User currently offlineHamlet69 From United States of America, joined Mar 2000, 2735 posts, RR: 58
Reply 8, posted (7 years 3 months 3 weeks 2 days 6 hours ago) and read 5130 times:

Quoting Kaitak744 (Thread starter):
(my guess)
Unidentified 11 - Vietnam
Unidentified 2 - Air Canada
Unidentified 2 - Northwest
Unidentified 15 - Virgin Atlantic

According to Boeing's press release of March 29th, this cannot be. In it, they state: "Since the 787's launch in April 2004, 39 customers have booked 491 orders. . . "

As of Feb. 28th, the 787 orderbook looked like this:

Orders: 464
Customers: 33 + these unidentified orders:

03/03/06 - 1 787-9
07/28/06 - 2 787-8
09/15/06 - 11 787-8
09/26/06 - 6 787-8
10/04/06 - 10 787-8
01/18/07 - 2 787-8
01/24/07 - 2 787-8

In the meantime, we've had these announcements/orders:

- March 12, ALAFCO announces earlier purchase of 6 787's (09/26/06), as well as 6 more (O: 470, C: 34 + UFO)
- March 12, Continental orders 5 787-9 (O: 475, C: 34 + UFO)
- third week of March, an Unidentified customer orders 15 787-9 (O: 490, C: 34 + UFO)
- March 28, Travel Service orders 1 787-8 (O: 491, C: 35 + UFO)
- March 28, Avianca announce UFO order (10/04/06) of 10 787-8 (O: 491, C: 36 + UFO)
- March 29, LCAL announce UFO order (03/03/06) of 1 787-9 (O: 491, C: 36 + UFO)

It is in this last press release that Boeing states: "Since the 787's launch in April 2004, 39 customers have booked 491 orders." Therefore, of the remaining (until this week) 5 UFO orders, 3 are from new customers:

07/28/06 - 2 787-8
09/15/06 - 11 787-8
01/18/07 - 2 787-8
01/24/07 - 2 787-8
MARCH - 15 787-9

We know one of the "2" UFO orders is ILFC, IMO it is the January 24th order. If I were to place bets, I'd say it looks like this:

07/28/06 - 2 787-8 - new customer, could be anybody
09/15/06 - 11 787-8 - TUIfly (I did feel it was VN, but was convinced otherwise by other members Big grin )
01/18/07 - 2 787-8 - existing customer, IMO AC
01/24/07 - 2 787-8 - ILFC
MARCH - 15 787-9 -  shhh 

Finally, we have the April 3 announcement, in which JAL orders 5 787-8's, while at least 4 other UFO orders* totaling 18 frames push total orders to 514.

* - we know it is a minimum of 4 different orders, all from new 787 customers as the total customer count is now 43. I'm an still trying to find out the breakdown of these UFO orders and will update as soon as I can.

Regards,

Hamlet69  profile 



Honor the warriors, not the war.
User currently offlineBoeingFever777 From United States of America, joined Jul 2009, 409 posts, RR: 54
Reply 9, posted (7 years 3 months 3 weeks 2 days 6 hours ago) and read 5103 times:

http://asia.news.yahoo.com/070403/4/2zrwk.html

Where does this play into the UFO's? I know VN has (11) options on the 787 between 2011-13.



comments?



Faire du ciel le plus bel endroit de la terre.
User currently offlineTak From United States of America, joined Jul 2006, 161 posts, RR: 0
Reply 10, posted (7 years 3 months 3 weeks 2 days 6 hours ago) and read 5066 times:

So much for Airbus' accounting being difficult to understand Big grin. Seriously, it's kinda fun to speculate about who is responsible for these unpublicized orders. Also Hamlet, many thanks for this analysis and your diligent work on the orders thread. It is much appreciated by many members of the Anet community. BTW, I forgot to add you to my RU list earlier, but am rectifying that error now  Smile. Ciao

User currently offlineBeaucaire From Syria, joined Sep 2003, 5252 posts, RR: 25
Reply 11, posted (7 years 3 months 3 weeks 2 days 5 hours ago) and read 4964 times:

Some of you might have forgotten that TUI had placed a huge order for 737's plus an order for 11 unidentified "other aircraft" from Boeing..
Those were never declared as 787's but the likelyhood that TUI is beefing up their Longhaul fleet with 787's is great.
TUI have bought First Choice with an outstanding 12 x 787's but in a corporate fleet-statement they mention 23x 787's ...



Please respect animals - don't eat them...
User currently offlineCV747F From Luxembourg, joined Jan 2007, 20 posts, RR: 0
Reply 12, posted (7 years 3 months 3 weeks 2 days 4 hours ago) and read 4876 times:

Quoting Hamlet69 (Reply 8):
09/15/06 - 11 787-8 - TUIfly (I did feel it was VN, but was convinced otherwise by other members )

being one of the users able to convince such a RU as Hamlet otherwise, thanks a lot for the honor
I guess I won't be able to convince Hamlet to acknoledge as SRB being the UFO for the 789  wink 
regarding the new UFO's, we need to find out who was in the process of placing small to mid sized orders
one coming immediately to my mind is Royal Jordanian, being in the market for 4 if I remember correctly
so 3 more customers and 14 orders to go.....
Cheers
CV747F


User currently offlineHamlet69 From United States of America, joined Mar 2000, 2735 posts, RR: 58
Reply 13, posted (7 years 3 months 3 weeks 2 days 4 hours ago) and read 4853 times:

Quoting BoeingFever777 (Reply 9):
Where does this play into the UFO's? I know VN has (11) options on the 787 between 2011-13.

Without any knowledge about the newest orders, I would say it is possible that VN has ordered 4 more as UFO. However, if that is the case, then we are looking at 5+ UFO orders amounting to 18 frames. . .


Quoting CV747F (Reply 12):
I guess I won't be able to convince Hamlet to acknoledge as SRB being the UFO for the 789

I have no idea what you are talking about. . .

Quoting CV747F (Reply 12):
one coming immediately to my mind is Royal Jordanian

Again, without any knowledge about the new orders up to this point, I would say that is a fairly smart bet.

Regards,

Hamlet69  profile 



Honor the warriors, not the war.
User currently offlineCV747F From Luxembourg, joined Jan 2007, 20 posts, RR: 0
Reply 14, posted (7 years 3 months 3 weeks 2 days 4 hours ago) and read 4780 times:

Quoting Hamlet69 (Reply 13):
Without any knowledge about the newest orders, I would say it is possible that VN has ordered 4 more as UFO. However, if that is the case, then we are looking at 5+ UFO orders amounting to 18 frames. . .

well if this proves to be right, as well as my humble guess of 4 for RJ, than we have 10 frames remaining for 3 new customers. The average size of the remaining orders is rapidly decreasing... could there be one or two private customer BBJ orders hidden in the total?
As for airline orders there were rumours of a possible switch of up to 6 767's to 787 from LAN
Any addtional guesses are more than welcome
Cheers
CV747F


User currently offlineHamlet69 From United States of America, joined Mar 2000, 2735 posts, RR: 58
Reply 15, posted (7 years 3 months 3 weeks 2 days 3 hours ago) and read 4720 times:

Quoting CV747F (Reply 14):
could there be one or two private customer BBJ orders hidden in the total?

Possible, but then that would not increase the customer order total either, as Boeing lists all BBJ orders under the BBJ-customer listing. . . (ex: Privatair is getting a 787BBJ, but Boeing does not list them as a seperate order/customer).

Regards,

Hamlet69  profile 



Honor the warriors, not the war.
User currently offlineAMSSFO From Netherlands, joined Feb 2005, 952 posts, RR: 10
Reply 16, posted (7 years 3 months 3 weeks 2 days 3 hours ago) and read 4678 times:

Quoting CV747F (Reply 14):
well if this proves to be right, as well as my humble guess of 4 for RJ, than we have 10 frames remaining for 3 new customers. The average size of the remaining orders is rapidly decreasing... could there be one or two private customer BBJ orders hidden in the total?
As for airline orders there were rumours of a possible switch of up to 6 767's to 787 from LAN
Any addtional guesses are more than welcome

A BBJ order would not be a new customer. However, not all 18 migh be ordered by the 4 new customers. Maybe some were ordered by an existing customer while 4 new customers took the remaining.
Maybe GA has finally ordered.....


User currently offline2wingtips From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 17, posted (7 years 3 months 3 weeks 2 days 1 hour ago) and read 4566 times:

Thanks Hamlet/CV747F for clarifying this situation as much as possible. I am another one convinced the 15 789 UFOs are for VS. I wonder what appropriate opportunity SRB will choose to announce this. If RJ/VN are 8 of the 787 UFOs from this week, that would leave 10 more from 3 customers. I am beginning to warm to the idea that EI might be one of these. I had them firmly in the 330 interim to 350 category. Their RFP is supposedly for 14 frames, but that could be a mix of 7+7. So, EI in there for around 7 wouldn't surprise, with another 2 small orders (VIP?) to make up the 18 UFOs I know it 's pure speculation and I think the suggestion that LA may go with the 788 is a very interesting and possibly viable one as well.

User currently offline2wingtips From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 18, posted (7 years 3 months 3 weeks 2 days 1 hour ago) and read 4523 times:

As an aside, what chance the 787 will make a clean sweep in the UK? We already have FlyGlobespan/Monarch/First Choice+TUI and very likely VS. BA would have to be a very good shot of being an eventual 787 customer as well. What does that leave apart from BMI, whose independent future seems less than assured?

User currently offlineFlysherwood From United States of America, joined Jul 2006, 1115 posts, RR: 0
Reply 19, posted (7 years 3 months 3 weeks 2 days 1 hour ago) and read 4472 times:

Quoting 2wingtips (Reply 18):
As an aside, what chance the 787 will make a clean sweep in the UK? We already have FlyGlobespan/Monarch/First Choice+TUI and very likely VS. BA would have to be a very good shot of being an eventual 787 customer as well. What does that leave apart from BMI, whose independent future seems less than assured?

Just think of how many 787's will be crowding the tarmacs at LHR, LGA and Stansted within the next 10 years. It is going to be simply amazing. The 787 will be as common at LHR as the 737 is at PDX.  Smile


User currently offlineER757 From Cayman Islands, joined May 2005, 2491 posts, RR: 7
Reply 20, posted (7 years 3 months 3 weeks 2 days ago) and read 4437 times:

Quoting 2wingtips (Reply 17):
I am another one convinced the 15 789 UFOs are for VS.

I am leaning that way too, but just to speculate a little further, what if they are for EI or IB? Boeing keeps them as UFO's til the Paris show and drops the bomb on Airbus in their own back yard that one of their stalwart customers has defected.


User currently offlineAtmx2000 From United States of America, joined Oct 2004, 4576 posts, RR: 38
Reply 21, posted (7 years 3 months 3 weeks 2 days ago) and read 4421 times:

Quoting ER757 (Reply 20):
Boeing keeps them as UFO's til the Paris show and drops the bomb on Airbus in their own back yard that one of their stalwart customers has defected.

I'm sure Airbus would know if they've defected, given that they wouldn't be wasting time talking to Airbus's marketeers.



ConcordeBoy is a twin supremacist!! He supports quadicide!!
User currently offlineJayinKitsap From United States of America, joined Nov 2005, 769 posts, RR: 1
Reply 22, posted (7 years 3 months 3 weeks 2 days ago) and read 4415 times:

Quoting ER757 (Reply 20):
I am leaning that way too, but just to speculate a little further, what if they are for EI or IB? Boeing keeps them as UFO's til the Paris show and drops the bomb on Airbus in their own back yard that one of their stalwart customers has defected.

With Boeing it will the Customer that announces the order. Boeing stepped back a number of years ago to this policy and are probably even skittish after the QR "stomach flu" left them on the "windy corner". Such is life.


User currently offlineKaitak744 From United States of America, joined Jul 2005, 2364 posts, RR: 3
Reply 23, posted (7 years 3 months 3 weeks 1 day 23 hours ago) and read 4342 times:

Quoting Hamlet69 (Reply 8):

Arg... this is the first time I have been let down by Wikipedia. : Smile Smile(
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Boeing_787_orders
Yesterday, I corrected the 519 total to 514. Someone changed it back to 519 today.

If you please, can you find the mistake(s) on this page, so that all of us can be clear on the 787 orders.


Thanks!


User currently offlineKbdude From United States of America, joined Nov 2006, 154 posts, RR: 0
Reply 24, posted (7 years 3 months 3 weeks 1 day 21 hours ago) and read 4201 times:

Quoting Hamlet69 (Reply 13):
Quoting CV747F (Reply 12):
I guess I won't be able to convince Hamlet to acknoledge as SRB being the UFO for the 789

I have no idea what you are talking about. . .

Maybe its just me..... but coming from a guy in the know, seems like a positive acknowledgement to me!

So... VS for 15x789 it is....


25 Post contains images Hamlet69 : Just checked right now and it says 514, which is correct. Regards, Hamlet69
26 2wingtips : The 787 breakdowns for this week appear to be: 5 788s for JL 3 789 for new customer #1 15 788s for new customers 2, 3 and 4. No idea who the 789s are
27 WestWing : The Boeing press releases have flubbed numbers in the past - leading to some confusion. So I wonder if the 43 customers number is correct because it s
28 Post contains images CV747F : Well I'm starting to think that there might be somewhere a mistake regarding the number of new customers. Wouldn't Boeing list the 15 788 as 3 separa
29 N1786b : I thought the same thing - but isn't it also the end of Q1? -n1786b
30 Post contains images Hamlet69 : No, the numbers are correct. If they are ordered on the same day, and are for the same model, then Boeing would indeed list them all under one listin
31 WestWing : Thank you for the detailed breakup. Four new customers. Great!! Just to add to this, it appears as though when an unidentified customer chooses their
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