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Longhaul Aircraft Shortage -A Versus B Obsolete...  
User currently offlineBeaucaire From Syria, joined Sep 2003, 5252 posts, RR: 25
Posted (7 years 4 months 3 weeks 5 days 9 hours ago) and read 8387 times:

Analysing the recent shortage of long-haul aircraft on the second-hand market,the artificial differences highlighted on this forum between "this aircraft is better than that ..." seem to have vanished for the carriers.
The potential availability of A330/A340 by Air Canada has led to un unprecedented run on speculations,who might be awarded the aircraft for sale.Basically today any decent maintained 757/777/767/A330/A340 will find a lessor in very short time frame.So we are spending thousands of threads ,trying to explain why this or that aircraft is better than the competitive aircraft-but ,at the end of the day,any of them will find an operator,simply because there is not enough of them available.
That means that none of the two dominant suppliers has any current advantage,since delivery slots are full for the next three years,and by the time the A380 and the 787 have been introduced into fleet-service,things will have balanced.
A&B will remain at a healthy 50/50 market-share- with some shifts from year to year- but I think it's a sign of both companies providing competitive and mature products.
The main danger for those two are in Russia,Brazil and China - the single aisle market will see extraordinary competitiveness and Russia will have an advantage over China in this one.
Competition is healthy in that it pushes for better price/performance ratio - may the best win !


Please respect animals - don't eat them...
67 replies: All unread, showing first 25:
 
User currently offlineRevelation From United States of America, joined Feb 2005, 12445 posts, RR: 25
Reply 1, posted (7 years 4 months 3 weeks 5 days 8 hours ago) and read 8298 times:

Quoting Beaucaire (Thread starter):
That means that none of the two dominant suppliers has any current advantage,since delivery slots are full for the next three years,and by the time the A380 and the 787 have been introduced into fleet-service,things will have balanced.

Things may level out, but Boeing will have sold hundreds more 787s than Airbus has sold A350s, and sold a similar number of 747-8s as A380s and made much more profit doing so. While A is selling A330s as fast as they can make them, Boeing is selling 777s as fast as they can make them, whilst it's clear A will not make back their investment in A340-500/600. Not exactly a 50/50 split in my book. Add to that, A is trying to move to the industrial model B already has, and the high Euro/Dollar ratio as well.

I agree there's a cyclical nature to the business, but with the EIS of A350 five years from now, it seems to me that there will be a long wait for the pendulum to swing back in A's direction.



Inspiration, move me brightly!
User currently offlineEI321 From Iraq, joined Jul 2009, 0 posts, RR: 0
Reply 2, posted (7 years 4 months 3 weeks 5 days 8 hours ago) and read 8243 times:

Quoting Revelation (Reply 1):
whilst it's clear A will not make back their investment in A340-500/600.

Is this an assumption, or a fact? [For the record I have no way of knowing either]. Both A & B have made duff investments in the past. Look at how much the 777-300ER has outsold the A340-600. Look at how much the A330-200 has outsold the 767-400.

Quoting Revelation (Reply 1):
While A is selling A330s as fast as they can make them, Boeing is selling 777s as fast as they can make them

I dont think this is as fast as they can make them at all. Airbus is looking at making them at a faster rate. Im sure Boeing could ramp up production also.

Quoting Revelation (Reply 1):
Things may level out, but Boeing will have sold hundreds more 787s than Airbus has sold A350s,

Just like Airbus have been selling 000s more A330s than Boeing have been selling 767s. This market (200-400) is something like 5000 aircraft over the next two decades.

Quoting Revelation (Reply 1):
sold a similar number of 747-8s as A380s and made much more profit doing so

Thats definitly possible, but I think its dodgy to start judging the long term success of the A380 or 747-8 before either even enters service. Its also worth noting that some aircraft models, particularly Airbus', have had a history of poor sales prior to EIS (A320, A330 etc).

[Edited 2007-04-05 14:39:46]

User currently offlineStitch From United States of America, joined Jul 2005, 30898 posts, RR: 87
Reply 3, posted (7 years 4 months 3 weeks 5 days 8 hours ago) and read 8227 times:
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When comparing immediate need, that is true for the majority of models, since airlines are apt to take whatever is available because operating economics aren't so critical over the short-term.

But when looking at the longer-term expansion and replacement market, the industry is favoring Boeing product at the moment, though Airbus continues to appeal, as well, and this appeal should increase as the A350XWB nears definition and service.


User currently offlineThorben From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 4, posted (7 years 4 months 3 weeks 5 days 7 hours ago) and read 8124 times:

Quoting Beaucaire (Thread starter):
The potential availability of A330/A340 by Air Canada has led to un unprecedented run on speculations,who might be awarded the aircraft for sale

Well, OZ had 34 parties interested in their A332s, these things are selling.

Quoting Beaucaire (Thread starter):
So we are spending thousands of threads ,trying to explain why this or that aircraft is better than the competitive aircraft-but ,at the end of the day,any of them will find an operator,simply because there is not enough of them available.

Wait for the next big crises, than you'll see who has more in the desert.

Quoting Beaucaire (Thread starter):
Basically today any decent maintained 757/777/767/A330/A340 will find a lessor in very short time frame.

I'm not so sure about 757 and 767. Aren't there some in the desert?


User currently offlineEI321 From Iraq, joined Jul 2009, 0 posts, RR: 0
Reply 5, posted (7 years 4 months 3 weeks 5 days 7 hours ago) and read 8115 times:

Quoting Thorben (Reply 4):
Quoting Beaucaire (Thread starter):
Basically today any decent maintained 757/777/767/A330/A340 will find a lessor in very short time frame.

I'm not so sure about 757 and 767. Aren't there some in the desert?

Yep but these are mostly the earlier models, particularly the non-ER 767 varients.


User currently offlineScouseflyer From United Kingdom, joined Apr 2006, 3389 posts, RR: 9
Reply 6, posted (7 years 4 months 3 weeks 5 days 7 hours ago) and read 8107 times:

Quoting Thorben (Reply 4):

I'm not so sure about 757 and 767. Aren't there some in the desert?

I think well looked after 757s are highly prized but obviously any plane that is poorly maintained, damaged etc may not be in demand - remember that one of Varigs T7s was recently parted out


User currently offlineDeltaDC9 From United States of America, joined Apr 2006, 2844 posts, RR: 4
Reply 7, posted (7 years 4 months 3 weeks 5 days 6 hours ago) and read 7959 times:

Quoting EI321 (Reply 2):
I dont think this is as fast as they can make them at all. Airbus is looking at making them at a faster rate. Im sure Boeing could ramp up production also.

I think both are making them at the fastest rate that makes sense business wise, or at least I hope so.

Ramping up then ramping down before it pays off is a very expensive thing to do and risk analysis drives these decisions now more than ever after some blunders in this area.



Dont take life too seriously because you will never get out of it alive - Bugs Bunny
User currently offlineAlessandro From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 8, posted (7 years 4 months 3 weeks 5 days 6 hours ago) and read 7937 times:

So the old Il-62 and Il-86 will soldier on then, together with the Il-96 due to airplane shortage in this size?

User currently offlineKevin777 From Denmark, joined Sep 2006, 1165 posts, RR: 1
Reply 9, posted (7 years 4 months 3 weeks 5 days 6 hours ago) and read 7826 times:

Quoting Revelation (Reply 1):
whilst it's clear A will not make back their investment in A340-500/600

You sure? Anyways, what about the 343? That's been quite a seller, AFAIK.

Quoting Revelation (Reply 1):
I agree there's a cyclical nature to the business, but with the EIS of A350 five years from now, it seems to me that there will be a long wait for the pendulum to swing back in A's direction.

Agree.

Quoting Thorben (Reply 4):
I'm not so sure about 757 and 767. Aren't there some in the desert?

Don't know about the desert, but no matter what the 757 does not really fit here anyways - it does not have the range and indeed not the capacity (in particular cargo) to be a significant player in this market.

Quoting Scouseflyer (Reply 6):
remember that one of Varigs T7s was recently parted out

Well, I think one should be cautious of concluding too much on the basis of this; it was a desperate airline with different lessors for engines / A/C frames, probably nothing more than that.

Kevin777  Smile



"I was waiting for you at DFW, but you must have been in LUV" CPH-HAM-CPH CR9
User currently offlineJdevora From Spain, joined Aug 2006, 352 posts, RR: 7
Reply 10, posted (7 years 4 months 3 weeks 5 days 5 hours ago) and read 7711 times:

Quoting Revelation (Reply 1):
whilst it's clear A will not make back their investment in A340-500/600.

I don't have a way to know, but I really think it is far from "clear". They sold 150 of them (32 345 and 121 346) I think it can't be too far from making a profit, specially been a derivative.

Just for comparation porpouses, the 764 sold 38 frames and most people in here say that they made a profit just with Delta's 21 planes.

Cheers
JD


User currently offlineDAYflyer From United States of America, joined Sep 2004, 3807 posts, RR: 3
Reply 11, posted (7 years 4 months 3 weeks 5 days 5 hours ago) and read 7682 times:

Quoting Scouseflyer (Reply 6):
I think well looked after 757s are highly prized but obviously any plane that is poorly maintained, damaged etc may not be in demand - remember that one of Varigs T7s was recently parted out

This really is the key for any second hand airframe. I dont care how old or new it may be, if the owner didnt take proper care of it, the airframe may be worth more parted out than flying.



One Nation Under God
User currently offlineCygnusChicago From United States of America, joined Mar 2007, 758 posts, RR: 1
Reply 12, posted (7 years 4 months 3 weeks 5 days 5 hours ago) and read 7605 times:

Whether or not Airbus makes back their investment in the A340-500/600 depends on your view on how many they will sell (and deliver). At current margins, they need to sell about ~300 - 320 frames to breakeven (that's if I recall correctly and the investment was $3.5 bn)


If you cannot do the math, your opinion means squat!
User currently offlineSEPilot From United States of America, joined Dec 2006, 6897 posts, RR: 46
Reply 13, posted (7 years 4 months 3 weeks 5 days 4 hours ago) and read 7518 times:

Quoting Beaucaire (Thread starter):
That means that none of the two dominant suppliers has any current advantage,since delivery slots are full for the next three years,and by the time the A380 and the 787 have been introduced into fleet-service,things will have balanced.

I can't agree with this, as Airbus has really shot themselves in the foot, first by developing the A380 in the first place and then by screwing it up. If this were really the situation the first variants of the A350 would have attracted more interest, as at that point they could have been delivered in comparable time frames as the 787. Instead, the airlines sent Airbus back to the woodshed. It is true that second hand long haul planes are a scarce commodity, but no airline is going to order an inferior new airliner just because they can get it sooner than the one they really want. If you don't have a plane that you want you don't make the money you think you could, but if you settle for one that has higher costs and your competitor has one that has lower costs you end up losing money. When you consider the costs of buying or leasing a new airliner and the fact that it is not always easy to get rid of it without taking a bath financially you can understand that airlines will be extremely reluctant to order anything other than the one that will in their opinion offer the greatest return. Airbus MUST get the A350 right and must also answer Y1 when Boeing comes out with it or they will be in deep trouble. The A380 is a distraction from these tasks, and IMHO will never make any money.



The problem with making things foolproof is that fools are so doggone ingenious...Dan Keebler
User currently offlineMEA-707 From Netherlands, joined Nov 1999, 4316 posts, RR: 36
Reply 14, posted (7 years 4 months 3 weeks 5 days 3 hours ago) and read 7497 times:

Quoting Alessandro (Reply 8):
So the old Il-62 and Il-86 will soldier on then, together with the Il-96 due to airplane shortage in this size?

Unfortunately not. The widebody shortage is limited to the newer post 1987 families, the older A-300, A-310, 747-200/300, DC-10, L-1011 and 767-200(non ER) are also disappearing from the passenger market, either being scrapped or sold fairly cheap as freighters. The Il-62s and 86s are even less able to survive in the current market as the 'obsolete' widebodies I just mentioned as they are very noisy and fuel-thirsty.



nobody has ever died from hard work, but why take the risk?
User currently offlineFlysherwood From United States of America, joined Jul 2006, 1115 posts, RR: 0
Reply 15, posted (7 years 4 months 3 weeks 5 days 3 hours ago) and read 7497 times:

Quoting Beaucaire (Thread starter):
That means that none of the two dominant suppliers has any current advantage,since delivery slots are full for the next three years,and by the time the A380 and the 787 have been introduced into fleet-service,things will have balanced.
A&B will remain at a healthy 50/50 market-share- with some shifts from year to year- but I think it's a sign of both companies providing competitive and mature products.

The last time I checked, Boeing had 514 orders for the 787 and it hasn't even been introduced. What part of that incredible number do you not see as an advantage in Boeing's direction?  Yeah sure


User currently offlineFlysherwood From United States of America, joined Jul 2006, 1115 posts, RR: 0
Reply 16, posted (7 years 4 months 3 weeks 5 days 3 hours ago) and read 7457 times:

Quoting EI321 (Reply 2):
Thats definitly possible, but I think its dodgy to start judging the long term success of the A380 or 747-8 before either even enters service. Its also worth noting that some aircraft models, particularly Airbus', have had a history of poor sales prior to EIS (A320, A330 etc).

Considering it has been 7 years since launch, it is getting to the point where a judgement on the A380 success is being shaped by itself.

Quoting Revelation (Reply 1):
I agree there's a cyclical nature to the business, but with the EIS of A350 five years from now, it seems to me that there will be a long wait for the pendulum to swing back in A's direction.

Was it not the CEO before Mr. Gallois that said it will take Airbus 10 years to catch up to Boeing?


User currently offlineBoomBoom From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 17, posted (7 years 4 months 3 weeks 5 days 3 hours ago) and read 7393 times:

Quoting EI321 (Reply 2):
Just like Airbus have been selling 000s more A330s than Boeing have been selling 767s. This market (200-400) is something like 5000 aircraft over the next two decades.

767?

Haven't you heard of the 787? It's Boeings offering in this market and has 514 orders.


User currently offlineMindscape From United States of America, joined Apr 2004, 315 posts, RR: 0
Reply 18, posted (7 years 4 months 3 weeks 5 days 3 hours ago) and read 7338 times:

Quoting BoomBoom (Reply 18):
Haven't you heard of the 787? It's Boeings offering in this market and has 514 orders.

787 ?

Have you seen it fly yet ?


User currently offlineFlysherwood From United States of America, joined Jul 2006, 1115 posts, RR: 0
Reply 19, posted (7 years 4 months 3 weeks 5 days 2 hours ago) and read 7307 times:

Quoting Mindscape (Reply 19):
Have you seen it fly yet ?

Can you say $72 Billion in orders for this aircraft? If the airlines are willing to spend that kind of money on this aircraft before it even flies, can you imagine what it will be like when it shows that it is the MOST efficient aircraft around!


User currently offlineEI321 From Iraq, joined Jul 2009, 0 posts, RR: 0
Reply 20, posted (7 years 4 months 3 weeks 5 days 2 hours ago) and read 7282 times:

Quoting BoomBoom (Reply 18):
Quoting EI321 (Reply 2):
Just like Airbus have been selling 000s more A330s than Boeing have been selling 767s. This market (200-400) is something like 5000 aircraft over the next two decades.

767?

Haven't you heard of the 787? It's Boeings offering in this market and has 514 orders.

Its Boeings offering in the marketplace from 2008 onwards (and dererves every order it gets because it was a long time coming), their third attempt at a rival to the A330 (fourth if you include the 777-200A) and their second production attempt (third if you include the 777-200A). The A330-200 will be a decade in service by 2008.


User currently offlineConcordeBoy From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 21, posted (7 years 4 months 3 weeks 5 days 2 hours ago) and read 7238 times:

Quoting Mindscape (Reply 19):
Have you seen it fly yet ?

Which is rather irrelevant, considering that the topic at hand is orders and not performance  Yeah sure


User currently offlineSEPilot From United States of America, joined Dec 2006, 6897 posts, RR: 46
Reply 22, posted (7 years 4 months 3 weeks 5 days 2 hours ago) and read 7231 times:

Quoting EI321 (Reply 21):
Its Boeings offering in the marketplace from 2008 onwards (and dererves every order it gets because it was a long time coming), their third attempt at a rival to the A330 (fourth if you include the 777-200A) and their second production attempt (third if you include the 777-200A). The A330-200 will be a decade in service by 2008.

There's no question that the A330 is a great aircraft; the 777 did not overshadow it because it (777) was more geared to long range routes, and the A330 is more efficient for shorter routes. The only direct answer to the A330 before the 787 that Boeing attempted was the 764, which flopped. That being said, we're in a new game now. The 787 is going head to head with the A330 and winning, and once it enters service and the initial backlog is worked off Airbus will find it difficult to sell additional A330's. When the 787-10 comes out it will dry up the market for the 772's, but Boeing doesn't care about that. It will completely wipe out what remains of the market for A340's.



The problem with making things foolproof is that fools are so doggone ingenious...Dan Keebler
User currently offlineEI321 From Iraq, joined Jul 2009, 0 posts, RR: 0
Reply 23, posted (7 years 4 months 3 weeks 5 days 2 hours ago) and read 7216 times:

Quoting SEPilot (Reply 23):
we're in a new game now.

Yes we are and Boeing have a head start!

Quoting SEPilot (Reply 23):
once it enters service and the initial backlog is worked off Airbus will find it difficult to sell additional A330's.

Except for one thing. By the time the current 787 backlog is worked off the A330 replacement will be in service.

Quoting SEPilot (Reply 23):
When the 787-10 comes out it will dry up the market for the 772's, but Boeing doesn't care about that. It will completely wipe out what remains of the market for A340's.

As above by the time the 787-10 enters service the A340 replacement will already be in revenue service.


User currently offlineBoomBoom From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 24, posted (7 years 4 months 3 weeks 5 days 2 hours ago) and read 7216 times:

Quoting EI321 (Reply 21):
Its Boeings offering in the marketplace from 2008 onwards

I'ts been offered in the marketplace since 2004.


25 Tancrede : Sorry, but this is very relevant question when throwing around cheap conclusion. As you have seen with Airbus and its A380, a lot of things, good and
26 Ikramerica : Not true at all. Don't confuse the used market with the new market. If the 'which is better' argument had vanished, you'd see 767s being sold en mass
27 Post contains images Flysherwood : Whose fault is that? You mean 20 years from now? Or are you thinking that the 787 stops selling at say 600 units? They don't even have the design set
28 SEPilot : I would question this; the A350XWB is larger than the A330 and I suspect the 787 will win most of the A330 replacement orders. I'll agree with this o
29 EI321 : Yes. If only by a year. 2013. Thats 7 years from now. What can I say, Its statements like this which have zero credibility. Order backlogs speak for
30 Molykote : Either manufacturer is probably able to sell out capacity so long as they offer products cheaply enough. However, the quality of the product (be it A
31 Flysherwood : You mean like 160+ units 7 years after intro? The A380 is 2 years late and the A350 has gone through 2 or is it 3 different designs! There is the 0 c
32 EI321 : Doubt it. The 787 is not the exact same size as the A330 either. Look at the 767 replacement market for instance. 767 operators are falling for the 7
33 Flysherwood : You are absolutely correct here. How many 787-3 have been sold?
34 BoomBoom : Yes, that's true. Do you understand what offered in the marketplace means? It means it's being marketed--offered for sale in the marketplace. I would
35 EI321 : Yes I do. And IMO opinion if should be less at at this moment considering how they f***ed up the development programe. Correct me if Im wrong, but is
36 SEPilot : When the 787 was launched the A350 wasn't even a gleam in John Leahy's eye. The big hole in Boeing's lineup was the 767, which was (and still is) sel
37 EI321 : I think we both know that number will look very different by 2012 (if you are comparing it to the 787 figure).
38 DeltaDC9 : Absolutely wrong, when two of your best most loyal customers say build the 783 and we will be your launch customers, you say yes. And how can you imp
39 EI321 : That contradicts tha current 787 sales figures!
40 Post contains images Flysherwood : I don't think there has been any aircraft that took 7 years to get to EIS ever. It has still not been entered into service! So that is not exactly a
41 Post contains images EI321 : Its a shark (get it?   ) in the 777s swimming pool. The A330 - Launched 1987, EIS 1994. Well the target is 20 orders per year. As with all Airbus pr
42 SEPilot : Exactly, which is why Boeing didn't launch it sooner.
43 DeltaDC9 : No, 787 sized planes sell more than 777 sized planes which sell more than 747 sized planes which sell more than 380 sized planes. Its pretty obvious.
44 Post contains images EI321 : Yes it does, other wise the 787 would have been smaller than the 767. Gererally, the larger the plane the smaller the market. However, as I said, the
45 Flysherwood : He reminds me of a used car salesman!!!
46 SEPilot : This does not mean that airlines looking to replace old aircraft necessarily want larger ones. If that were the case 737 and A320 sales would be lang
47 Post contains images EI321 : What kind of a place do you buy your cars from? Hes far worse than any car salesman! He reminds me of one of those guys who call to your door trying
48 EI321 : It applies generally to widebodies. Shorthaul is different, its more fragmented & point to point orientated, not to mention being more saturated. The
49 SEPilot : Hey, to be fair to the guy, he has done his best to put his company in the best possible light. He has gone overboard a few times, but most of the ti
50 Post contains images Flysherwood : After all of the haranguing he gave Boeing about the CFRP barrells, miraculously Airbus has decided to use CFRP panels on the A350. But I will give i
51 Post contains images Flysherwood : Well at 20 per year, they will formally reach the break even point on this frame around 2020. If that really is the target sales then there is a reas
52 SEPilot : C'mon, he had to find SOMETHING to throw at the 787-it was cleaning his clock! What do you want him to say, "Well you really ought to talk to Randy,
53 ER757 : I have to go with EI321's thinking here - while I don't think the A380 will sell more than about 400 or so frames over it's lifetime and probably wil
54 Manni : A rough calculation with the numbers you provided gives a margin of about 5%. Based on this outcome I can only conclude that your numbers are wrong,
55 JAAlbert : yes, but one of the prior iterations of the 350 managed to chalk up some 200 or so orders didn't it? I think once the 350xwb is firmed up, we will se
56 ElmoTheHobo : Yes, but the 767-400 is a cheap upgrade of the 767-300 using almost no new technology, simply migrating equipment from other aircraft types. The 767
57 EI321 : Try not to confuse Leahys public quotes with what I assum is not his personal opinion and we know is not the personal opinion of Airbus designers!. T
58 DEVILFISH : Recommended reading..... Airbus Versus Boeing by John Newhouse.
59 CygnusChicago : My numbers are correct (as is the development cost). You are using list prices in your calculation.
60 Manni : If the development costs are correct and break even is around 300 to 320 aircraft, the average discount on an A345 or A346 would have exceeded 50%. T
61 Atmx2000 : They were sold at a time when the pound and euro were weak.
62 Manni : Aircraft are priced in US$. A weak euro would have been to Airbus' benefit.
63 XT6Wagon : God no, terrible book. Not for what it says but for the complete and utter lack of editing. Its worse than a 300+ post thread about the subject here
64 Post contains images Atmx2000 : Bingo. Break even models that factored the relative currency valuations at the time would have suggested to Airbus that they could sell at a lower pr
65 Calags : I think the Concorde first flew in 1969 and entered service in 1976. Development certainly started before 1969 but I'm not sure when.
66 Manni : Returning from their lows, but still lower valued then '97, '98 and '99 and a part of 2000. Orders were placed at that time aswell, in the end it wil
67 Post contains images DEVILFISH : Precisely the reason it is an apt read for A.nutters.
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