Sponsor Message:
Civil Aviation Forum
My Starred Topics | Profile | New Topic | Forum Index | Help | Search 
Clark On A380 - A World Beater!  
User currently onlineAndyEastMids From United Kingdom, joined Jan 2001, 1016 posts, RR: 2
Posted (7 years 4 months 1 week 6 days 11 hours ago) and read 21848 times:

Whilst the debate about Emirates and the A350XWB/787 rumbles on http://www.airliners.net/discussions...neral_aviation/read.main/3353276/, I'm surprised no one's picked up on what Clark's now also saying about the A380...

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?p...conews&tkr=EAD:FP&sid=aIcZoNE0nreY

Emirates is the biggest customer of Airbus's 555-seat A380 and has 45 of the planes on order. The airline will take delivery of the first one next year, 21 months behind schedule, because of manufacturing delays at Airbus.

''I think it's going to be a real world beater,'' Clark said. ''There's not going to be a lot that's going to touch it.
''


207 replies: All unread, showing first 25:
 
User currently offlineEI321 From Iraq, joined Jul 2009, 0 posts, RR: 0
Reply 1, posted (7 years 4 months 1 week 6 days 11 hours ago) and read 21803 times:

Quoting AndyEastMids (Thread starter):
''There's not going to be a lot that's going to touch it.''

It depends in what context he is speaking, but its another nail in the coffin of the a-net the cancelation roumers.


User currently offlineLumberton From United States of America, joined Jul 2005, 4708 posts, RR: 20
Reply 2, posted (7 years 4 months 1 week 6 days 10 hours ago) and read 21745 times:

Sounds like EADS and EK have come to terms on compensation for the A380 delays.


"When all is said and done, more will be said than done".
User currently offlineLifelinerOne From Netherlands, joined Nov 2003, 1920 posts, RR: 7
Reply 3, posted (7 years 4 months 1 week 6 days 10 hours ago) and read 21624 times:

Well, when you invest and order 43 A380's you are sounding better saying this than saying that the A380 is a crappy plane, I'm sorry we ever ordered it.

However, Mr. Clark is a somewhat loudmouth, so I think he's telling the truth (from his point of view). If the A380 was indeed a crappy plane he would have said it out loud and go on cancelling the order with a lot of show and bad press for Airbus.

Cheers!  wave 



Only Those Who Sleep Don't Make Mistakes
User currently offlineComeAndGo From United States of America, joined Mar 2005, 1041 posts, RR: 0
Reply 4, posted (7 years 4 months 1 week 6 days 10 hours ago) and read 21624 times:

Clark wants the A380-900. How can he talk badly about the A388 ?

Think about it, 850 passengers in economy. Backpacking Europe to Australia for $200.


User currently offlineWINGS From Portugal, joined May 2005, 2831 posts, RR: 68
Reply 5, posted (7 years 4 months 1 week 6 days 10 hours ago) and read 21481 times:

Quoting AndyEastMids (Thread starter):
''I think it's going to be a real world beater,'' Clark said. ''There's not going to be a lot that's going to touch it.''

I seriously don't know what to say. Mr Clark has just been to much of a loud mouth these past few years.

If he thinks that the A380 will be a real world beater why is he bothering with the B748i? How will this vote of confidence result in upcoming A380 vs B748i orders?

Regards,
Wings



Aviation Is A Passion.
User currently offlineLifelinerOne From Netherlands, joined Nov 2003, 1920 posts, RR: 7
Reply 6, posted (7 years 4 months 1 week 6 days 10 hours ago) and read 21451 times:

Quoting WINGS (Reply 5):
If he thinks that the A380 will be a real world beater why is he bothering with the B748i

Well, maybe he used the B747-8i as a measure to secure a good compensation from Airbus, or maybe he needs a plan to fill the gap between the B777-300ER and the A380.

Cheers!  wave 



Only Those Who Sleep Don't Make Mistakes
User currently offlineEI321 From Iraq, joined Jul 2009, 0 posts, RR: 0
Reply 7, posted (7 years 4 months 1 week 6 days 10 hours ago) and read 21451 times:

Quoting LifelinerOne (Reply 3):
Well, when you invest and order 43 A380's you are sounding better saying this than saying that the A380 is a crappy plane, I'm sorry we ever ordered it.

Still, Ive never heard him say that about the 777 or any other plane despite him ordering so many of them.

Quoting WINGS (Reply 5):
If he thinks that the A380 will be a real world beater why is he bothering with the B748i? How will this vote of confidence result in upcoming A380 vs B748i orders?

I cant ever see Emirates ordering the 748i. Its not the plane they want it to be. Boeing cant turn water into wine.

[Edited 2007-04-12 13:31:02]

User currently offlineSemobeila From Austria, joined Jun 2006, 73 posts, RR: 0
Reply 8, posted (7 years 4 months 1 week 6 days 10 hours ago) and read 21412 times:

Quoting Lumberton (Reply 2):
Sounds like EADS and EK have come to terms on compensation for the A380 delays.

That's what it looks like. With all the good press Clark is making for Airbus the past few days there must have been some movement in this matter between EK and Airbus.


User currently offlineWingman From Seychelles, joined May 1999, 2229 posts, RR: 5
Reply 9, posted (7 years 4 months 1 week 6 days 9 hours ago) and read 21111 times:

He's been very complimentary of the 777, complaining only about the price. I'm sure someone will dig up the glowing comments.

User currently offlineStitch From United States of America, joined Jul 2005, 30877 posts, RR: 86
Reply 10, posted (7 years 4 months 1 week 6 days 8 hours ago) and read 20821 times:
Support Airliners.net - become a First Class Member!

a.net opinions about "no news being bad news" not withstanding, so far none of the A380 customers have publicly expressed any reservations or concerns about the plane and many have been outright complimentary. Even FX and 5X said they canceled because they could not get it in the timeframe they needed, not because it was unable to perform the missions they intended for it.

And a.net opinions about "they can't be frank because they'll look bad for ordering it in the first place" not withstanding, many of these airlines have had the ability to walk away without penalty and yet none of them have. And those customers who can't get out of their contracts (like, evidently, TG) are looking at adding additional frames. If the plane really was so poor compared to existing and upcoming competitors, then they'd be canceling them and eat the costs. TG is not going to let $90 million force them to spend $1200 million or more (to take delivery of all six frames) if that plane is going to lose tens or even hundreds of millions a year for two decades or more. Because they're going to look a lot more "bad" doing that...


User currently offlineSkyyMaster From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 11, posted (7 years 4 months 1 week 6 days 8 hours ago) and read 20719 times:

Just curious, but why is this one man's opinion considered "gospel" in the industry? He doesn't have a single one of these aircraft flying, yet he's willing to make it to be the world's best aircraft ever. It may wind up eventually being so, but it certainly has a LONG way to go to prove that. How many industry analysts have been saying EK is just adding to a glut of over-capacity in the Middle East? Perhaps Mr. Clark is not the visionary many people think he is and should not take everything he says as the definitive indication of what is to come. IIRC, at one time, Frank Lorenzo was considered the salvation of the airline industry, and we all know that story.

User currently offlineBigJKU From United States of America, joined Feb 2007, 878 posts, RR: 12
Reply 12, posted (7 years 4 months 1 week 6 days 7 hours ago) and read 20560 times:

Quoting Legoguy (Reply 17):
The A380 may not be a world beater at the moment, however orders will start rolling in slowly once the aircraft is in service.

I will be shocked if orders pick up substantially. Assuming there are no more delays and at some point Airbus actually gets a production certificate on this aircraft the order line is currently about 5 and a half years long. Just assume they get their 20 orders per year in the next 4 to 5 years and the soonest anyone can get one after seeing the thing in substantial service would be in the 2015-2016 range. That would see Airbus sell around 250 frames. At that point Boeing is likley to either have put out Y-3 if they are not doing Y-1 first or they will be starting the development of Y-3 if they have done Y-1 first. For the A380 to be anything but a total failure it needs to sell steadily for around 20 years.

By 2020 the A380 will be a dead aircraft made from old technology that no airlines will want. As soon as Boeing or Airbus offers a plane in the 350-475 seat range made from CFRP the A380 will not be able to compete. The same argument that says that smaller planes get less benefit from going to CFRP works in the other way for Y-3. Scaling the plane up will increase the benefit of the new technology. Particularly if engines continue to develope and a two engined plane that can haul over 450 passengers is developed the gains in efficiency will be dramatic.

The A380 is an engineering accomplishment. The problem is it is more like the Maginot Line, the Yamato, the SS United States and the Paris Gun. They were the biggest, fastest and best examples of their technology. That technology was just being passed by. Airbus would be better off had they just built a modern 747 sized airplane. They would be rolling in cash if they had built a CFRP 777-747 sized airplane. Hindsight is always 20-20 but history does show many cautionary tales about being the company to build the biggest and best of something while your competitor is building something new.


User currently offlineLegoguy From United Kingdom, joined Jun 2006, 3312 posts, RR: 39
Reply 13, posted (7 years 4 months 1 week 6 days 7 hours ago) and read 20480 times:

Quoting BigJKU (Reply 13):

Perhaps if Airbus eventually decide upon building the larger A380-900, then more orders will roll in. But yes I agree Airbus should have really built a slightly smaller aircraft to take on the 747 directly.



Can you say 'Beer Can' without sounding like a Jamaican saying 'Bacon'?
User currently offlinePEET7G From Hungary, joined Jan 2007, 695 posts, RR: 0
Reply 14, posted (7 years 4 months 1 week 6 days 7 hours ago) and read 20402 times:

Anyone care to look deeper into the onion? All of a sudden 2 positive comments on Airbus: The A350XWB is on par with the 787, the A380 is a world-beater, yap, yap, yap...

I think the deal is done behind the scenes, a fat big compensation for EK and it involves the XWB... watch out for the next shows to come and just look at how the 787 order will bee thrown into the trash...  Sad

Even all you die-hard Airbii fans have to look at the following points:

-Tim furious on A380 delays claiming this and that and how much the delays hurt his airline and yaps about all the lost millions and billions of dollars...
-Tim criticizing the A350 as it is...
-EK getting more and more in bed with the 787-10...
-Negotiations start between EK and Airbus on compensations for the A380 saga...
-EK getting more and more in bed with the 787-10...
-Almost at the same time auditors visit Toulouse to get info on the XWB project...
-EK getting more and more in bed with the 787-10...
-Auditors return (they returned weeks ago, not now!!!) and nothing special comment, in fact EK even says that there is some progress...but all the comments that came out where very very far from applauding the wonders of the "latest" XWB...
-And then all of a sudden weeks after they finished auditing the XWB, after negotiations where well under way, Tim comes out and floods the media how wonderful the XWB is and what a world-beater the A380 is, etc, etc, etc...

In my interpretation the flow of thing indicate:
BIG BIG compensation has been agreed upon (well ,definitely to the taste of EK), and the XWB is involved in some way... so I say good bye 787 in EK colours and hello A350XWB... and one big big winner is EK in the deal...

...ok that was just my  twocents  ,but just think about it for a minute  Wink

And just let me put my foot down before U Airbii cheerleaders linch me:

-Yes, I do believe the A380 will find it's way in the future, however I do not find it such an "innovating" wonder as many of U would like to show it... it will work and it is a magnificent plane.
-And YES, I do think the A350XWB will be an absolute hit on the Airbus product line, It simply has to be, Airbus has no other option. Yes I do believe it will be on par with the 787, I have to or else Airbus is out of the game... simple as that.



Peet7G
User currently offlineBigJKU From United States of America, joined Feb 2007, 878 posts, RR: 12
Reply 15, posted (7 years 4 months 1 week 6 days 7 hours ago) and read 20362 times:

Quoting Legoguy (Reply 13):
Perhaps if Airbus eventually decide upon building the larger A380-900, then more orders will roll in. But yes I agree Airbus should have really built a slightly smaller aircraft to take on the 747 directly.

The problem with that is the when. If Airbus did not sell another A380-800 then they would still be in the 2012 frame before they could start producing the A380-900. Assuming they can do it with minimal work, since they have plenty of other projects that are far more important, they could start selling the things in 2013 or therabouts. To do this I presume they would have to start offering the A380-900 for sale in the near future.

However there are a few problems, I doubt you can sell the 900 until the 800 proves itself in service. So you are talking 2-3 years before that happens at best. At the same time you had better be selling some 800s or you run the risk of having no orders when your production line gets the first 150 out the door in 2012. So if you sold another 80-100 planes in that time you are pushing back the 900 to 2014-2015 unless people want to convert orders. By the time the 900 model can get into service there will be newer and better things on the immediate horizon.

Airbus needed to build this thing on time for it to work. It honestly should not have been built at all. Now instead of it comming out a few years before CFRP starts gaining acceptance it will be comming out during the dawn of the CFRP airliner. Less than halfway through its projected 30 year life the A380 will be rendered obsolete. Any money thrown at further models is just a waste of cash and effort. One of the first things you should learn in business is to not throw good money after bad. Build as many 800 models as you can and get out of the sinkhole that is the A380.


User currently offlineStitch From United States of America, joined Jul 2005, 30877 posts, RR: 86
Reply 16, posted (7 years 4 months 1 week 6 days 5 hours ago) and read 20067 times:
Support Airliners.net - become a First Class Member!

Quoting SkyyMaster (Reply 11):
Just curious, but why is this one man's opinion considered "gospel" in the industry?

It's more a.net then the industry, and more because the sheer size of the orders EK has made and the sheer size of the orders they will make warms the hearts of Airbus Aficionados and Boeing Boosters both.  Smile


User currently offlineReality From United States of America, joined Apr 2007, 478 posts, RR: 0
Reply 17, posted (7 years 4 months 1 week 6 days 3 hours ago) and read 19547 times:

Quoting BigJKU (Reply 12):
Hindsight is always 20-20 but history does show many cautionary tales about being the company to build the biggest and best of something while your competitor is building something new.

Maybe we shouldn't try to PREDICT history.

Time will tell.


User currently offlineFlysherwood From United States of America, joined Jul 2006, 1115 posts, RR: 0
Reply 18, posted (7 years 4 months 1 week 6 days 3 hours ago) and read 19335 times:

Quoting EI321 (Reply 7):
Still, Ive never heard him say that about the 777 or any other plane despite him ordering so many of them.

Those planes have never given him any problems that he has to explain to the Board of Directors. C Y A is what this is all about. He better pray that once he has all 45, that no SARS event happens!


User currently offlineFlysherwood From United States of America, joined Jul 2006, 1115 posts, RR: 0
Reply 19, posted (7 years 4 months 1 week 6 days 3 hours ago) and read 19141 times:

Quoting PEET7G (Reply 14):
And YES, I do think the A350XWB will be an absolute hit on the Airbus product line, It simply has to be, Airbus has no other option. Yes I do believe it will be on par with the 787, I have to or else Airbus is out of the game... simple as that

You are so right on this point. If they don't get the A350XWB done the right way, Airbus will be out of the game. There future is totally dependent upon the A350. And yes, I absolutely hope they have a hit with this airframe!

Quoting BigJKU (Reply 12):
The A380 is an engineering accomplishment. The problem is it is more like the Maginot Line, the Yamato, the SS United States and the Paris Gun

LOL  Smile


User currently offlineKhobar From United States of America, joined Mar 2006, 2379 posts, RR: 4
Reply 20, posted (7 years 4 months 1 week 6 days 2 hours ago) and read 18830 times:

Quoting AndyEastMids (Thread starter):
'I think it's going to be a real world beater,'' Clark said. ''There's not going to be a lot that's going to touch it.''

LOL. The guy certainly can state the obvious, eh?

Considering there is only one company manufacturing such a species, that doesn't really leave a lot out there to touch it.

But wait...Mr. Clark says there's not a lot out there that's going to touch it. That means there is something out there that is going to touch it. That is a very interesting admission. I wonder - when Mr. Clark said "going to", was he referring to current aircraft "going to touch it" when the A380 comes into service next year, or was he referring to other aircraft that have not yet themselves entered service - the A350, 787, and 748i? Hmmm, interesting admission from Mr. Clark indeed, and certainly not good news for the A380.

Quoting PEET7G (Reply 14):
I think the deal is done behind the scenes, a fat big compensation for EK and it involves the XWB... watch out for the next shows to come and just look at how the 787 order will bee thrown into the trash...

I think you are correct about the deal being done. But what 787 order are you referring to? EK hasn't ordered any and are not likely to. EK is already annoyed at Boeing for not doing the 748i "EK's way", and Boeing hasn't formally launched the 787-10 to EK's specs, also to the displeasure of EK.

Airbus, on the other hand, has had a strong relationship with EK for quite some time. Their A350XWB fits EK's requirement, and EK already owns and/or will own a large number of Airbus aircraft. It's a good partnership. It simply makes good sense for EK to go with Airbus.

It makes equally good sense for Boeing not to waste time and energy chasing EK for this particular deal. Sure it would be sweet, but...


User currently offlineGlideslope From United States of America, joined May 2004, 1611 posts, RR: 0
Reply 21, posted (7 years 4 months 1 week 6 days 2 hours ago) and read 18316 times:

Quoting Lumberton (Reply 2):
Sounds like EADS and EK have come to terms on compensation for the A380 delays.

Exactly. Nothing more.

Quoting EI321 (Reply 7):
Still, Ive never heard him say that about the 777 or any other plane despite him ordering so many of them.

Because he does not receive "Delay Compensation" for them.
 Smile

Quoting Reality (Reply 17):
Maybe we shouldn't try to PREDICT history.

Time will tell.

Yes it will. Buy Boeing Stock.
 Smile



To know your Enemy, you must become your Enemy.” Sun Tzu
User currently offlineGBan From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 22, posted (7 years 4 months 1 week 6 days 2 hours ago) and read 18283 times:

Quoting Reality (Reply 17):
Maybe we shouldn't try to PREDICT history.

Time will tell.

Very good advice...


User currently offlineZeke From Hong Kong, joined Dec 2006, 9001 posts, RR: 75
Reply 23, posted (7 years 4 months 1 week 6 days 1 hour ago) and read 17445 times:

PEET7G,

EK got some additional data recently regarding the technical route proving, the LH route trials, and the GP7200 certification on the A380, the numbers from what I understand have been pleasing. I think also the expected delivery times for his 380s has come forward, with the 380F fuselage technology hitting airframes earlier the weight has come down as a result.

On the XWB front Airbus is coming closer to the design freeze, a lot more if known both from Airbus and RR, RR now think their engine will start testing in 2011.

The latest visit to TLS has given them something they didnt have before, information. The information shows a trend that Airbus is listening to its customers, and trying to deliver exactly what they want, for EK that was the getting the range they wanted with good economics.

The A350XWB-1000 will burn 25% less fuel per seat over the 773ER, and A350XWB-900 30% less fuel seat than on a 772ER, and the 350XWB is giving EK something they want, the desired range. From what I understand only one 787 model at the moment has the desired range EK is looking for.

I think as a result of their latest visit, people are rethinking their fleet planning, keep the 777s longer, and replace them with them with 350XWBs when they become available, if the need additional aircraft, go with 777s and 330s, skip the 787 fad.



We are addicted to our thoughts. We cannot change anything if we cannot change our thinking – Santosh Kalwar
User currently offlineKeesje From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 24, posted (7 years 4 months 1 week 6 days ago) and read 16764 times:

Quoting Zeke (Reply 23):
Zeke

Agreed. IMO could turn out into Boeing dominating the 220-260 seat segment with the 787-8 and 787-9, and Airbus the 280-350 seat segment with the A350-900 and A350-1000. I can image the 789 being more optimized then the A358.

Remarkable IMO is that for EK its hub seems to be a kind of center of the world. Few places that cannot be reached non-stop with ULH aircraft (777LR/788/A345/A358) because DXB is on the opposite side of the center Pacific. A kind of Fedex single hub system comes to mind (for worldwide cargo)..


(8500nm range from dxb)


25 Post contains images Nitrohelper : Did he mean not a lot of the Airlines will touch it ? How many will be delivered to the Airlines ten years from now ( 2017 ) ? I asked this question
26 RedFlyer : About 200. All of them converted freighters.
27 Post contains images RoyalAtlantis : Yes LHR is slot controlled, Yes DXB is a leaping-off point...but still, how is Emirates going to fill 43 A380's? I still agree with the point-to-point
28 XT6Wagon : Whoh, so you can have it both ways? You can compare the 787-9 to the A350-900 when it comes to economics, yet you don't have to compare them when it
29 XT6Wagon : I think they are going to start with shorthaul "lets get this figured out and people trained on real hardware" flights... much like AC did with thier
30 Sparklehorse12 : There is so much fuss about what Tim Clark has to say. He likes the A380 - good on him. The A380 is up there with the 747 as one of the great aviation
31 RedFlyer : It is. But then so was Concorde. And so was the Spruce Goose. Neither of which was a great ROI for their builders. Whether or not EK is one of the mo
32 ComeAndGo : Ryanair and their planed LCC point to point trans atlantic service is going to kill everything we know and the A380 will be nothing more than a 850 s
33 PEET7G : I did not mean that any order already existed, rather than pointing to the pretty common opinion here and in the media, that EK and Boeing are close
34 AVinutso : That is a pretty bold statement for an aircraft that is not finalized in its design. A 30% gain in efficiency over a 772ER is a HUGE number - I just
35 EnviroTO : When you have a 8500nm range there are many places from which almost every destination can be reached. 8500nm from YWG covers everywhere except Perth
36 Stitch : The allexperts article on the 747 cites only one three sources for information, so I assume the claims that some 747s deliveries were a year late and
37 Khobar : Ah, okay - in the media and around here. As for EK being annoyed at Boeing, I think that is accurate. With a compensation package from Airbus I don't
38 SailorOrion : I really really don't see that happening. People have been saying this for years: The LCCs will kill the majors, the majors will focus on a few premi
39 BigJKU : I would not say major carriers are doomed. They will just have to adjust if, and I think its a big if, LCC get into the international flying market.
40 SEPilot : Exactly. The A380 will be obsolete long before it has paid for itself. I think you've nailed it. There will be very few A380's converted to freighter
41 Keesje : I think the 2707 was a fully government-funded contract I can imagine some people think this is a somewhat premature statement few months before the
42 JayinKitsap : Great map BTW, it does show that DXB can connect to everywhere. Yes with all of the 777ER, 777LR, 380's and the so to be added 100 787/350's, EK will
43 RedFlyer : Close. 90% of the estimated $1.5 billion (in 1970 dollars) was supposed to be funded by the U.S. government. That statement is not too far off the ma
44 Post contains images PEET7G : I think you are a bit exaggerating the importance of the A380. It was an evolution in some way when they started designing the bird, but be honest...
45 Lemurs : You're absolutely right, but the problem is that this isn't a new idea for TATL flying that Ryanair is about to introduce. That fragmentation started
46 BigJKU : I agree completly. It is not so much that the LCC will compete directly it is that they will further fragment the market. Every plane that goes out f
47 Post contains images Ikramerica : Nobody is going to buy the 787-10 (78X)? There are quite a few 772s out there and A340s that will need replacing, and customers are going to split 50
48 BigJKU : I agree with this but I think there is an interesting side factor that needs to be looked at. Boeing has a much eaiser path to link up their product
49 SEPilot : The development costs of the 747 exceeded the net worth of Boeing at the time. If that isn't a "bet the company" move I've never heard of one. As oth
50 ER757 : 787 FAD????? You aren't serious are you? If I missed the intended humour I'm sorry, but if you were serious, I find it hard to imagine a plane that w
51 XT6Wagon : No, The 747 was the 3rd ranking civil airliner project boeing had running at the time. The 2707 was 1st, the 737 was a distant second, and supposedly
52 Stitch : The allanswers.com statement being argued was that [i]747 deliveries ran up to a year late and as such, they almost bankrupted the company". I happen
53 Zeke : The A350XWB OEW is 50,000 - 100,000 lb lighter than a 777, that along with powerplant technology that is 10 years more mature than what is on the 777
54 Dougloid : The monolithic CFRP construction methods and distributed production model that Boeing is betting the future of the company on will in the end prove to
55 Stitch : I imagine these are Airbus goals at the moment? And are they in the public yet or have they just been released to prospective customers? And would yo
56 XT6Wagon : And yet when I said that the huge huge advantage to the barrel construction is the reduction of parts count, yet it was dismissed by at least one tha
57 Spaceshipone : What does a "World Beater" mean?
58 Post contains images WingedMigrator : So if I read you correctly, post-Y3, anybody who wants (or, heaven forbid, needs) an airplane larger than 475 seats (in a dense "brochure" configurat
59 Post contains images RedFlyer : Maybe he meant it would be master of world aviation. In that case, I suppose that would make it a "World Master Beater".
60 Post contains links and images Jacobin777 : ..you can say what you want..but this says it all... no one is saying that the legacies such as the BA's and LH's of the world will go out of busines
61 SailorOrion : Well there are people who appear to be praying this, especially that the hub-and-spoke system is dead. Unless someone can tell me how a 788, which is
62 Post contains images Dougloid : indeed Saints preserve us from any more successes like that one. I think it was said pretty well a long time ago "Another such victory over the Roman
63 Post contains images Sangas : Boeing delivered 96 741s to 17 customers/operators by December 31, 1970, which was 1-year and 1-day after the 741 achieved type/production-certificat
64 BigJKU : I am saying if people have to choose between a CFRP plane that can seat 475 people and is probably substantially more efficient than the A380 and a 5
65 Post contains images Keesje : Well I think the Airbus/AVIC 370-500 seat A390XWB easily beats the Y3 because it a little lighter & newer. Why even invest in the Y3. Seriously Y3..
66 Post contains images SEPilot : Yes, the 747 was the third ranked program, but it still ended up costing more than the net worth of the company at the time. If it had failed Boeing
67 Post contains images SkyyMaster : Considering they still need what, 250+ orders to break even, per their own estimates? It will never happen. Whatever airlines left to order it, it's
68 Ikramerica : 300 frames of jets larger than the 747. Through 2025. That means according to Boeing predictions, which are just that, if all carriers who didn't nee
69 Multimark : Point to Point (the RJ of our decade) will be dead in the next 10 years as oil continues its climb in price.
70 Ikramerica : You obviously don't know what you are talking about, but it sounds good. The "death" of the RJ doesn't mean all of a sudden airlines stop flying the
71 Poitin : It would be interesting to find out just what Micheal O'Leary (MOL) plans to do with his 50 787s (or maybe 350s) with his new long haul low cost airl
72 WingedMigrator : Why stop at 550? By the time Y3 is built, there will likely be a 650 seat aircraft available, significantly more efficient than the A380-800 flying t
73 Post contains images Multimark : Thank you O Wise One Point to point is just the latest fad that will "save" the industry. All kinds of secondary cities connected with direct flights
74 Molykote : I am not sure of your intent with this statement. If you are under the belief that all FedEx packages are routed through Memphis, you have been misin
75 Post contains images Zvezda : The A350 is likely to be 50,000 to 80,000 lbs lighter than comparable 777s. A 100,000 lbs weight saving would require a revolutionary shift in design
76 Post contains images Jacobin777 : "fad"?....in the past 20 years, how many transatlantic/transpacific flights have been dropped down to B767's, A330's, B777's, even B757's, A320's and
77 Stitch : Well the A350XWB will be within two meters in length of a 787-10 and will have an MTOW upwards of 44,000lbs more. Yet if it will have an OEW 50,000lb
78 Zvezda : You sure? I think that was the projection for the aluminium version. Do you have a source?
79 AutoThrust : Excellent post, couldnt agree more. I dont agree, PtP will grow a lot thats for sure, but IMO that doesnt mean Hub to Hub will decrease dramatically,
80 Post contains images HB88 : Don't worry, it'll be more than offset by the inspection requirements in relation to possible EMI damage to the 787 wing rivets around the lightning
81 Zvezda : That's quite an allegation. Can you provide any evidence? Most of the members here arguing that the WhaleJet suffers from little market demand made t
82 Post contains links Zeke : That depends on where the assembly is done. Boeing is seeing a lower part at the assembly plant because more of the structure is assembled outside th
83 Zeke : The Boeing market outlook was significantly lower than the forecast FAA future demands and Airbus CMO. When the 748-i/748F were launched Boeing incre
84 Zvezda : There you go again .... No one has argued that there is no market for the WhaleJet. Many have argued (nearly all starting before the first delay was
85 PM : And it remains to be seen if they were correct or not.
86 Post contains images Glareskin : A380 a world beater? The jury is still out. But as Boeing cheerleaders like to point out, it is a new class. Not competing with the 747 or anything fl
87 Sangas : True, however, Zvezda was specifically challenging the validity of the rather questionable assertion that those who skeptical are about the sufficein
88 Post contains images Sangas : I made the effort to go out to ORD when the A380 visited Chicago on March 20th as well. However, from my vantage point I didn't get a real sense (app
89 Post contains images Nitrohelper : Are these the 700 + seat Leakier Air style people movers of 2020 ? 669 Seats for sure to be stacked in the "High Density" version ! Maybe per day New
90 Post contains links and images Stitch : Flight International - http://www.flightglobal.com/articles...s-an-in-depth-look-at-the-new.html You were not that clear in your original statement -
91 Zvezda : From memory, I believe that was by 2017. However, 750 would need to be sold by that date to achieve a substandard RoI of 13%. An RoI of about 20% wou
92 Keesje : Is that about the same as the 747 in 1979?
93 Post contains images Zvezda : OEW was explicit, so you're clearly not the person who was confused. What is your question?
94 Multimark : How about you come back when your willing to drop your old reality thinking? It amazes me how many people think that the next 20 years will be just l
95 Post contains images Ikramerica : ...for TWO new VLAs. That was part of the reasoning Boeing used to not go with one, because they new Airbus would do it no matter what for political
96 RedFlyer : Of the 182 gross orders placed for the A380, 153 of them (84%) were placed prior to the first flight in April, 2005, and long before the first delay
97 WingedMigrator : in hindsight. Of course the decision can't exactly be undone. I believe I was doing the above-referenced "insulting". Thankfully you are not among th
98 Zvezda : No, not only in hindsight. Most of us who were critical of the WhaleJet's business case were critical of it before the first delay was announced. In
99 Dougloid : Something stuck in your throat there? Get used to it. There's more to come. I'm sure that is exactly what the boys at Curtiss and Fokker and Stinson
100 Dank : Maybe I missread WingedMigrator's post incorrectly. But the issue isn't whether people were critical of the business case before the delays. The issu
101 WingedMigrator : Nevertheless, the delays do not vindicate whatever viewpoint you may have initially held on the business case. In hindsight. The business case for th
102 Sparklehorse12 : Most of the criticism of the A380 project has used the share price as a gauge to try, in some kind of attempt, to back up the argument that the A380 i
103 Post contains images 2wingtips : They would have dropped it like a hot potato if they didn't get what they wanted out of Airbus There must be some massive performance guarantees/comp
104 Post contains images Stitch : They would have dropped it like a hot potato if they didn't get what they wanted out of Airbus Wink There must be some massive performance guarantees
105 Zvezda : Correct. This is plausible and if we grant it for the sake of argument then, under that scenario, Airbus would still need to sell 750 WhaleJets in th
106 Post contains links Slz396 : Quoting Zvezda (Reply 105): Airbus have already admitted that the first 80 or so were sold at prices lower than the cost of production. They have? The
107 Poitin : While you may or may not have missed WingedMigrator's post, you clearly missed Zvezda's, which is there never was a business case for the A380 and it
108 Post contains images Astuteman : They most certainly have not! They have stated that the production cost escalation due to the delays, plus the delay penalties imposed on top of that
109 Dank : No, I haven't missed Zvezda's point. The issue is that the situation now does not validate this view in any way shape or form (nor does it disprove i
110 RedFlyer : The business case for the A380 was always a weak one. Why spend US$15 billion (not counting the cost of the delays) chasing 3% of the market when you
111 Dank : 3% of the market by size, not value. And at the time when they started development for the 380, there wasn't the need to invest in the 330/340 space
112 EI321 : The problem may have been that airbus did not have to choose that 40% of the market as they already had the best selling A330-200 which had only rece
113 RedFlyer : Are you implying that that 3% by size could somehow climb into the double-digits if based on value? Very unlikely. The market was and remains too sma
114 Dank : The estimate that I think that I saw is 10%. As for the development cost, you can't take what the development cost has turned out to be, when this fa
115 EI321 : Good points. I sometime think the 'flush with cash' term is misused on anet. Airbus/Boeing can get lots of orders but they wont be flush with cash un
116 Astuteman : That's certainly what most informed commentators say, including Boeing IIRC. Regards
117 EI321 : Actually, I think Randy talked about this in a recent blog on the 747-8.
118 Sparklehorse12 : .............. do you actually know this is the case? On a pure business to business case(even if your assertion is correct) has it never been the bu
119 Nitrohelper : What would be the production price for a standard 500 seat WhaleJet ? For now forget R&D costs, delay overhead, and the time cost of money discussion
120 Post contains links WingedMigrator : Check out this Morgan Stanley analysis. Production cost is estimated at $115M (no engines) List price is $296M to $316M depending on configuration 40
121 Stitch : I also believe Airbus' own statements have supported the ~$115 million production price, based on some posts I recall from Manni.
122 XT6Wagon : Zvezda's quote from airbus comes from AFTER the last delay, so it is not incompatible with your statement.
123 Sparklehorse12 : There seems to be way too much focus on the delay. It has been whipped up into the great 'Airbus Scandal' by parties interested in seeing the A380 fa
124 Post contains images Jacobin777 : ...sure we are all aviation enthusiasts (that is why the vast majority of us are here in the first place)...but there is more, much more to aviation
125 Sparklehorse12 : Of course there is otherwise there wouldn't be aviation industry in the first place....where I feel there is way too much emphasis is on the delay...
126 Post contains images Jacobin777 : its literally the biggest thing in commercial aviation history..of course it will get its fair share of discussion...eventually, once the bird comes
127 Post contains images Sparklehorse12 : Jacobin....that seems to be a bit of a cop out, you have read the posts...geezus I got banned for three days for defending my argument that it was yo
128 Post contains images Jacobin777 : ..not a "cop out" one bit.....this is to be expected....I've been banned for a lot lesser comments on the A380.... ..this doesn't have to do with "co
129 Astuteman : Sorry. In my english, the phrase "were sold at" implies the pricing conditions at the time that they were sold. It's also entirely consistent with th
130 Sangas : Did Airbus ever commission and/or conduct a critical review/study/appraisal of the A380 program before it was launched with governmental aid, or is G
131 Astuteman : They didn't publish one, but that doesn't mean it wasn't done. The resources, supply chain etc. that needed to be mobilised to undertake the A380 cou
132 Slz396 : May I point out that before we start focusing whether he was referring to a quote from BEFORE or AFTER the last delay, we still need to see the actua
133 Sangas : The problem seems to stem from the fact that Airbus uses the word "profitable" to desribe what most cost accountants/financial anlaysts would charact
134 Post contains images Astuteman : Wrong - again. Airbus use the word "profitable", always in conjunction with the word "operating", to describe a transaction in which the income excee
135 Post contains images Sangas : AFAIK, Messrs Ring and Sperl of EADS/Airbus never make that important distinction in their public comments...they're not fooling you or the financial
136 Slz396 : Correct! For both A and B, a profit is booked when a plane is sold for more than it costs to build. From several of EADS' regulatory statements, it c
137 Stitch : Enthusiasm for aviation can take many forms, it appears, and not all of them are universal in nature. Alas, too many make the mistake that only Ameri
138 RedFlyer : You're both honorable members of this site and your posts are usually fair, so I will take your word at what you say. However, even if the value woul
139 Dougloid : Even if the A380 is the best thing since sliced I do hope we're not going to go back tho this Great Satan argument again. Gellman is an accomplished a
140 Post contains images HB88 : Was there meant to be some content there somewhere? Anyway, guessing at what you're angling at... you seem to forget - charitably I'll assume that yo
141 Post contains images Astuteman : To be honest, I couldn't give a flying f**k what he is. His CPA was rubbish, for one reason only. It wasn't the market research that sunk the report,
142 HB88 : Astute-guy, don't get too worked up. I don't think too many people in the industry takes the Gellman analysis any more seriously than they would Rand
143 Post contains images Dougloid : Or, for that matter, John Leahy or Tim Clark's gaseous flatulizing. But I guess y'all know that. If you repeat a lie often enough it's the functional
144 HB88 : Huh. Which lie would that be? I'm not sure what you're getting at here, but John Leahy is clearly a marketing guy. You don't see his utterances debat
145 HB88 : ... as regards rabbits and hats at Paris, I can tell you at Airbus it's just a lot of hard work at the moment - 350 moving along and the industrialis
146 Post contains links Keesje : Gellman still is following the same line, he moved with reality unfolding however.. http://www.northwestern.edu/univ-rel...ions/broadcast/2007/03/airb
147 RedFlyer : Unfortunately, that is a common tactic today in most industries and discussions of every color. Rather than discuss the merits of the issues raised,
148 HB88 : I'll think you'll find if you look at the posts above, that no-one was impugning Gellmans motive (the fact of Boeing funding the survey was not menti
149 Post contains images Dougloid : The point is, only you and the astute cat are the ones with a taste for tearing the shadow critical appraisal down because you don't like the conclus
150 Post contains images Nitrohelper : Thanks for the link , and the real numbers ! Engineers , we need numbers. How much more for the Engines ?, Do they need some spares? So round numbers
151 Post contains links Zeke : A lot of the "new" 787 technology actually came from sail boats, especially for the fuselage. http://www.sail-world.com/index.cfm?...D=0&ntid=0&ticke
152 Jacobin777 : ..you made it sound as if Boeing just adapted the entire B787 technology from some sailboat company....that's not even remotely close...it was essent
153 JetJeanes : I cannot believe they are buying 45 of these planes.. fly 30,000 people around to where??
154 Post contains links Zeke : Boeing licensed the technology. "If you think it’d be cool to take a ride in a carbon-fiber aircraft, get ready. Aerospace giant Boeing is utilizin
155 Lemurs : They license CATIA too...does that mean they took airplane design from the French? I think Ford used CATIA v2. That would make the 777 just a fancy fl
156 Post contains links Zeke : Difference is with your CATIA analogy, Dassault Systemes does not supply with CATIA a 777 or 380 template or a 777 or 380 prototype, North Sails buil
157 Post contains links WingedMigrator : The 10% market value is a Boeing figure, for 990 VLA frames in the next 20 years. You can read it for yourself in their Current Market Outlook. Airbu
158 Post contains images Jacobin777 : " target=_blank>http://www.northsails.com/australia/...6.htm ....they built the prototype architecture for mass production which Boeing licensed for o
159 Post contains images Baroque : Nice summary of the likely state of affairs that Airbus and its customers are not existing in a different reality!! This makes me ask what will be th
160 Astuteman : Most terribly sorry, Sir. That is in no way the reason that I criticised the report. If you read my criticisms carefully, you'll see I accepted both
161 RedFlyer : Airbus' rosier forecast is also from the last decade.
162 Astuteman : For clarification, Nitrohelper, the $190m to $210m manufacturing cost numbers are straight from Gellman's Critical Project Appraisal. I believe them
163 Post contains images Dougloid : It looks like I've got some more reading to do.....curse you all with the homework assignments.
164 Post contains images Baroque : True, for some reason this thread managed to move into the "each one sells at a huge loss" territory when clearly Astuteman was saying this was not s
165 Post contains images Jacobin777 : ...dealing with Astuteman's posts is always either a bloody homework assignment or a reading a Ph.D. thesis....
166 Post contains images Astuteman : I have some serious competition now, though..........from one of our newcomers. Mind you, he cheats by copying everyone else's posts first....... Reg
167 Post contains images Astuteman : I have some serious competition now, though..........from one of our newcomers. Mind you, he cheats by copying everyone else's posts first....... Reg
168 Post contains images Astuteman : I have some serious competition now, though..........from one of our newcomers. Mind you, he cheats by copying everyone else's posts first....... Reg
169 Post contains images Stitch : Aye, but you learn a lot. You should drift over to TechOps and follow one of Starglider's and Blackbird's threads. You'll learn a ton, but you'd best
170 Post contains images Jacobin777 : .....I think most here have been able to figure out about those platitudinal posts....
171 Post contains images Jacobin777 : .....I think most here have been able to figure out about those platitudinal posts....
172 Post contains images Dougloid : Homework assignment part one. Having digested this report, it is not an "analysis" of projected market trends. What it is, is an attempt to present t
173 Post contains images Astuteman : Pretty good, I reckon. . So here's part 2 of the assignment (should you wish to accept it.... ) The Gellman report cites a c.40% discount off the lis
174 Ikramerica : But it is something that has stopped many companies from innovated. It's called Not Invented Here Syndrome, and Boeing suffered from it in the past (
175 Lemurs : Now THAT is very true...duplication of effort where licensing and purchasing could have done it cheaper and faster is as old as the industrial revolu
176 Dougloid : This may well be an important part of the picture. Back when I worked in the weights department at Garrett the Canadair Challenger program was gettin
177 Astuteman : Whether that's on every single frame is a good question. But there's no doubt that every Boeing and Airbus aircraft family has a average discount tha
178 Post contains links WingedMigrator : I believe that is correct. The cost of engines is included in the airframer's list price, even though they are contracted separately with the engine
179 Post contains images Baroque : But then again, so do most PhD theses, just they use more than two sources, avoiding the charge of plagiarism. Very true, but in Aus parlance, while
180 Post contains images Astuteman : Having had a brief chance to review the MS document, and have a good look at page 5, I think your assertion that these major supplier items are ALL a
181 Post contains images PM : Someone explain these numbers to me. In my innocence I would have thought that the exposure of RR building 4 x Trent 900 would have been broadly the
182 Post contains images Jacobin777 : ...lordie have merci on us.....
183 A520 : May be these numbers are "average per aircarft" i.e. if RR and GP have each 50%, then cost of 4 engines would be $36m in one case and $44 in the othe
184 Post contains images Stitch : I would not be surprised if "launch" orders now get other things instead of just "extra" discounts. NH and JL, for example, got a new model - the 787
185 Post contains images PM : Er, it does if an A380 has two T900s on one wing and two GP7000s on the other. It would fly but I'm not sure that the FAA/JAA would give such a plane
186 Stitch : Teal Group figures each GP7xxx engine sells for around $13 million, so I can't see RR selling four for only $5 million more.
187 Astuteman : The MS report implies a "price" of $22m for 4 off GP7xxx engines. As I said, I don't know where that figure was derived from. Regards
188 Post contains images Baroque : There has to be another explanation, but I still wondering what it is. Cheaper by the dozen sounds good for the customer but not great for RR. Then a
189 Dougloid : And I can tell you that much of that equipment is not bought by Airbus and Boeing and sold to the customer. Much of it is bought by *somebody* and le
190 Stitch : Well there have been instances where the engine manufacturers have booked deals below production cost, but supported on the back end with lucrative s
191 Dougloid : I worked for Delavan for a time, which furnished the fuel nozzles for the RB211. They lost $1,500 on every one they made but more than made it up in
192 Post contains images Nitrohelper : Could the "phds" on this topic agree on some simple numbers for us folks with simple minds? Sorry I can't reread all the above without forgetting stuf
193 Dougloid : I did find an article from the Hartford Courant from Jan. 31 0f 2007 that says that the GP7200 costs between 7 and 10.5 million USD list price, subje
194 Baroque : True and the same sort of calculations apply to the 380 program as a whole, even as a failure (IIRC) the whole program was thought to be going to be
195 Post contains images Astuteman : This bit I understand. But, as a check for understanding, are you telling me that:- Nose Landing Gear Brakes Main Landing Gear Flight control systems
196 Post contains links Dougloid : Nearly anything can be leased, as Leelaw might say if he were around today. I've seen such placards attached to airpacks and landing gear, and it's qu
197 Astuteman : It depends what is, or isn't included. Perhaps a better question might be why Mr. Gellman considered it worthwhile including Customer supplied items
198 Jacobin777 : whatever happened to him?
199 Post contains images Dougloid : Curse you....that looks like homework assignment number 2.
200 Post contains images Astuteman : I wish you well. I don't believe the answer to what is assumed to be included in the selling price is in Gellman's Report. I also suspect that there
201 SEPilot : This whole discussion reminds me of the story of the department store manager telling the clerk to mark down the $10 shoes to $15 from $20. I don't th
202 Post contains images Scbriml : I used to live next to a greengrocer who sold "Grade A" and "Grade B" apples. The As were 20% more expensive than the Bs. Of course, out back, they a
203 Post contains images Baroque : You could find that article starring on Media Watch on Aus ABC as being lifted from the Times article cited in another thread. We have some really de
204 Dougloid : It was the first article I saw on google news. I'd heard about the general subject on NPR this morning at 7:00 am local time.
205 Post contains links and images BoomBoom : Of course "beater" has more than one meaning.
206 Dougloid : Would that be a master beater?
207 Post contains images Astuteman : You do go on and on You wouldn't be an on-and-on-anist would you? Regards
Top Of Page
Forum Index

This topic is archived and can not be replied to any more.

Printer friendly format

Similar topics:More similar topics...
Emirates Tim Clark On EK A380 Order.. posted Tue Nov 7 2006 22:35:09 by Keesje
Article On A380 Freighter From Air Cargo World posted Fri May 30 2003 19:29:25 by Teahan
CX: CEO Comment on A380/B747-8 & A350/B787 Plans posted Wed Mar 28 2007 03:44:24 by Manni
NBC's "Today" Show To Air Short On A380--- posted Sun Mar 18 2007 02:11:14 by ImperialEagle
EK's Clark: Overweight A380 Will Increase Costs posted Thu Mar 15 2007 06:56:23 by Sangas
Win A Trip On A380 With LH To Hong-Kong 50 People posted Tue Mar 6 2007 14:24:32 by LHStarAlliance
US Carriers - Missing On A380 And Intl Routes? posted Sun Nov 26 2006 02:55:38 by Acabgd
Dec 2006 Popular Mechanics Article On A380 posted Thu Nov 23 2006 22:12:07 by Mymorningsong
Thai Airways Warns On A380 & Alitalia Partnership posted Fri Nov 17 2006 12:09:31 by Singapore_Air
Mike Boyd On A380 And 737 Successor posted Tue Oct 31 2006 18:23:46 by Lumberton