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Could Boeing Stop The 747X?  
User currently offlineRw From Netherlands, joined Dec 2005, 0 posts, RR: 0
Posted (15 years 1 day ago) and read 2155 times:

Now that Boeing still hasn't got any orders for their 747X it's getting critical, I think. Even some 20 orders from two major airlines or so wouldn't justify the development costs of 4bn$. And it looks like most of the airlines like the A3XX more. Do you think Boeing is already considering to stop development as they did with the 747-500/600? And what would it mean to Boeing/Airbus , IF the A3XX would be the only Superjumbo in the near future?

12 replies: All unread, jump to last
User currently offlineNa From Germany, joined Dec 1999, 11381 posts, RR: 9
Reply 1, posted (15 years 23 hours ago) and read 2133 times:

Boeing will not stop developing the 747X. The 747-400LR as the first member (more a hybrid of the coming 747X and the 747-400) was launched today with the Qantas order. So the first step is done.
Also I´m quite sure that the reality of not a single order for the 747X so far is mainly temporarily reality because most possible customers are currently eveluating the new Airbus-"whale". If this is done by next springtime or so, I bet orders will come in for the "new" Boeing Jumbo. There is quite a considerable gap left between the bigger A3XX and the smaller A340/B777.
Another reason is that most 747-400s are still more or less new aircraft that don´t need to be replaced any time soon.
Its not like the B777/A340-market where these new products took over a market that was nearly completely deserted for years and most of the midsize-fleets of DC-10s and Tristars were already getting old very fast. The A340/B777 somehow filled up a "big hole".
I´m sure you´ll see some bigger airlines using both the B747X and the A3XX by 2010 because it makes more sense than some might think. Virgin has already announced that and other airlines could be mainly the ones who have 777s in their fleet but need a bigger aircraft than the 747 as well. That could be UA, BA, JAL, Korean Air and maybe Qantas.

User currently offlineWorldTraveller From Germany, joined Jun 1999, 624 posts, RR: 5
Reply 2, posted (15 years 23 hours ago) and read 2102 times:

I seriously doubt Boeing will go ahead with the B747X stretch.

However, I do believe that many airlines could use the B747-400X and B747X in the future.

Air New Zealand, South African, Thai, Air India come to mind.

the WorldTraveller

User currently offlineWingman From Seychelles, joined May 1999, 2652 posts, RR: 7
Reply 3, posted (15 years 22 hours ago) and read 2088 times:

Don't forget also that the A3XX has really been for sale for many years now. Press statements about Board approval given to make official deals is mostly hype. Leahy and team have been out there since '98 at least with a nearly complete spec sheet. Boeing on the other hand, did not aggressively ramp up mass marketing of the 747X family until Q2 of this year (in response to SIA's favorable comments about the A3XX).

Be patient and give Boeing some time. The 777LR and the 747X (430 pax and 10,000+ miles range) will be perfect complements and I think they'll sell very well. There is a huge gap in capacity and range between the 777/340 lines and the A3XX that only the 747X family can fill. The real question is...whose niche market will be larger and more profitable?

User currently offlineNa From Germany, joined Dec 1999, 11381 posts, RR: 9
Reply 4, posted (15 years 22 hours ago) and read 2070 times:

Remember how long it took ´til Boeing sold the first 777X? Very long! So I´ve no worries about the 747X´ chances.

User currently offlineF4N From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 5, posted (15 years 18 hours ago) and read 2051 times:

To all: Now that Boeing has picked up its' initial commitment for the type, the program should start to gather momentum. Boeing will undoubtedly maximise the effort to secure additional orders in order to increase the viability of the program.

WorldTraveller is correct in pointing out that there are several carriers which may not need the capacity of A3xx that would be interested in an a/c with range/capacity/performance improvements over a 742 or 744. The 747-400X and the 747X would be of value to them.

IMO, the 747X stretch will probably see the light of day as a freighter as opposed to a pax a/c.

One thing to bear in mind with regard to this program is Boeings' close and continued involvement with the Japanese a/c industry and the large number of 747 a/c flying with Japanese carriers. Given that Mitsubishi Heavy Industries has again elected to cooperate with Boeing on jumbo development instead of going with Airbus and A3XX cooperation, which plane do you think has the inside track for orders from JAL/ANA?

Some thoughts...


User currently offlineWorldTraveller From Germany, joined Jun 1999, 624 posts, RR: 5
Reply 6, posted (15 years 17 hours ago) and read 2039 times:

I just can't see an A3XX order by Japanese carriers.
They didn't order the A330/A340 too.

Maybe ANA if they wants something to differentiate themselves from JAL...

I agree with F4N that the B747X freigther has a big potential. From what I read, they might be better suited to many carriers than the A3XXF.

the WorldTraveller

User currently offlineB767-400er From Hong Kong, joined Apr 2000, 290 posts, RR: 0
Reply 7, posted (15 years 16 hours ago) and read 2023 times:

Qantas has just ordered 5 B747-400LRs. I would think they 'll go for the the 747x streched if they want more capacity.

Read Boeing's website!


User currently offlineWidebody From Ireland, joined Aug 2000, 1152 posts, RR: 8
Reply 8, posted (15 years 12 hours ago) and read 1996 times:

Boeing's big problem is that while they're arsing around with the 747X, the A3XX is gaining some vital orders.....as mentioned above, considering the Qantas fleet, why did they go for the A3XX...same with SIA....not even the largest discounts can draw airlines if the operating costs aren't right......cheap planes now ain't going to make a difference in 10-20 years time.....what's going to happen to Boeing is that instead of extending their large aircraft domination to the very large aircraft region, Airbus are going to have a headstart, and this headstart is getting larger every day...instead of Airbus playing catchup, for the first time in history, Boeing is going to be playing catchup to Airbus.......

User currently offlineBoeing747-400 From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 9, posted (15 years 12 hours ago) and read 1993 times:

Boeing will have no catching up to do in a little time. The 747X market will rise just like Boeing has stated. They have been professionals at the commercial airplane market for quite longer than Airbus, so I have no doubt to the 747X. Boeing really has no catching up to do, look at the total orders this year so far compared to Airbus.


User currently offlineWidebody From Ireland, joined Aug 2000, 1152 posts, RR: 8
Reply 10, posted (15 years 12 hours ago) and read 1983 times:

This year's oredr's don't mean a thing in the VLA sector...when the A3XX is fully launched, existing orders will bring Airbus roughly on par with Boeing for this year.....the argument is whether Boeing is losing to Airbus in the VLA market, and truthfully, Airbus's VLA order's to date could have been Boeing if Boeing had gone about things differently.......it's all very well to wait and see, it just makes me wonder how many orders Boeing is prepared to lose before they push harder....Boeing predicts a need for about 700 VLA..roughly I think.....already, including options, 60-70 A3XX have been ordered.....therefore Boeing has ideally lost 10% of its predicted market....

User currently offlineBoeing747-400 From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 11, posted (15 years 12 hours ago) and read 1980 times:

I don't think you've given Boeing a chance yet. It takes airlines a long time to decide to go for such a big project. Now, Airbus has had the A3XX for sale for quite longer than Boeing, and with Boeing at already 6 sales in some of the first months of the 747X, (instead of years with A3XX), I think it will outsell the A3XX by a lot through 2004. Around then, Boeing will introduce a new huge aircraft that well really push the A3XX for a big fight. This NLA will not be the end of the 747. Infact, it may be a plane completely different than today's 747, but is will still have the "747" painted on it when I rolls out of the paintshop. Airbus has a long and huge battle if they want to get above the 747.

User currently offlineWidebody From Ireland, joined Aug 2000, 1152 posts, RR: 8
Reply 12, posted (15 years 12 hours ago) and read 1980 times:

6 sales? That's for the 747-400X, not the 747X...the 747-400X may be a stepping stone, but it's not ain the VLA category....anyway, that's not my point......just after looking at Boeing's website, it says 330 VLA over the 500 seat capacity until 2019.......Airbus already has orders for 60-70.......granted it's been around longer, but at the moment it's 60 to Airbus, 0 to Boeing...Boeing has lost about 20% of its potential aircraft, from customers who really should have purchased Boeing products.....

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