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BOS-MSY Service  
User currently offlineB752OS From United States of America, joined Dec 2005, 1322 posts, RR: 0
Posted (7 years 3 months 2 days 10 hours ago) and read 2297 times:

I was wondering why there is no non-stop service between BOS and MSY. It seems that MSY is one of the last major cities in the United States that BOS does not have non-stop service to. AA used to fly the route on a seasonal 7 month basis, but after Katrina, it never returned. I am surprised that B6 has not stepped up and started a daily non-stop flight using a 190, especially when you consider BOS is a major focus operation for them.

18 replies: All unread, jump to last
 
User currently offlineMSYtristar From United States of America, joined Aug 2005, 6520 posts, RR: 51
Reply 1, posted (7 years 3 months 2 days 10 hours ago) and read 2267 times:

AA did very well with its BOS-MSY service; in fact, I believe it was going year-round before Katrina, or at least extending the service for a couple of more months. The flights generally went out with 100+ pax everyday.

There has been constant talk about B6 starting BOS-MSY with the E90's, and I thought for sure it would happen when the airport annouced its new incentive plan....but, it didn't.

While the airport has "most" of its nonstop destinations back, some big names are still sadly missing, with Boston and San Francisco leading the pack.


User currently offlineConcordeBoy From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 2, posted (7 years 3 months 2 days 9 hours ago) and read 2198 times:

Quoting MSYtristar (Reply 1):
and San Francisco

...or the Bay Area in general. Also add IND to that list.

Aside from them; SEA, PDX, and CMH were essentially the last major metros to not have a nonstop to this area. Sad  Sad


User currently offlineMSYtristar From United States of America, joined Aug 2005, 6520 posts, RR: 51
Reply 3, posted (7 years 3 months 2 days 9 hours ago) and read 2185 times:

Quoting ConcordeBoy (Reply 2):
Also add IND to that list.

And PIT...and SAN...


User currently offlineWalter747 From United States of America, joined Oct 2006, 1440 posts, RR: 5
Reply 4, posted (7 years 3 months 2 days 9 hours ago) and read 2127 times:

Quoting MSYtristar (Reply 3):
And PIT...and SAN...

No and No.

PIT by US

SAN by AA and B6 starting June 28

Quoting ConcordeBoy (Reply 2):
Aside from them; SEA, PDX, and CMH

SEA is by B6

CMH by AE

PDX starting September 9 on AS



Hussel, Hussel, Husel, Grind, Grind, Grind
User currently offlineMSYtristar From United States of America, joined Aug 2005, 6520 posts, RR: 51
Reply 5, posted (7 years 3 months 2 days 9 hours ago) and read 2118 times:

Quoting Walter747 (Reply 4):
No and No.

I was talking about service to those cities from New Orleans...


User currently offlineWalter747 From United States of America, joined Oct 2006, 1440 posts, RR: 5
Reply 6, posted (7 years 3 months 2 days 8 hours ago) and read 2090 times:

Quoting MSYtristar (Reply 5):

I was talking about service to those cities from New Orleans...

Oh i got confused for a second. I thought you meant BOS.



Hussel, Hussel, Husel, Grind, Grind, Grind
User currently onlineFlighty From United States of America, joined Apr 2007, 8397 posts, RR: 3
Reply 7, posted (7 years 3 months 2 days 8 hours ago) and read 2072 times:

Quoting Walter747 (Reply 6):
Oh i got confused for a second. I thought you meant BOS.

I was gonna say, B6 SAN-MSY, oh man, we have another AirTran on our hands!!


User currently offlineScottB From United States of America, joined Jul 2000, 6707 posts, RR: 32
Reply 8, posted (7 years 3 months 2 days 8 hours ago) and read 2062 times:

Quoting B752OS (Thread starter):
I was wondering why there is no non-stop service between BOS and MSY.

I suspect that part of the problem is that BOS-MSY traffic (as of 06Q3) fell dramatically in the wake of Katrina; it's just barely over half of pre-Katrina levels at relatively modest yields which are less than 2% higher than the pre-Katrina quarter (05Q2). Even if B6 were to enter the market non-stop, there's not a lot of room for low-fare stimulation when you compare to the yields they're seeing for BOS-AUS. Moreover, B6 may also be depending on some connecting traffic from BOS to make the JFK-MSY flights remain profitable.

I don't doubt that we would have seen B6 fly BOS-MSY but for Katrina.


User currently offlineMSYtristar From United States of America, joined Aug 2005, 6520 posts, RR: 51
Reply 9, posted (7 years 3 months 2 days 8 hours ago) and read 2037 times:

Quoting ScottB (Reply 8):
I suspect that part of the problem is that BOS-MSY traffic (as of 06Q3) fell dramatically in the wake of Katrina

That doesn't surprise me, seeing as how the convention and tourist industry is still suffering big time down here.

Quoting ScottB (Reply 8):
Moreover, B6 may also be depending on some connecting traffic from BOS to make the JFK-MSY flights remain profitable

On more than one occassion B6 folks told me that JFK-MSY was going to go to the E90's, but at the last minute B6 decided to keep the 320's on the route.


User currently offlineScottB From United States of America, joined Jul 2000, 6707 posts, RR: 32
Reply 10, posted (7 years 3 months 2 days 8 hours ago) and read 2006 times:

Quoting MSYtristar (Reply 9):
On more than one occassion B6 folks told me that JFK-MSY was going to go to the E90's, but at the last minute B6 decided to keep the 320's on the route.

I'd guess that there's the issue of yields versus CASM on JFK-MSY; they could reduce gauge to the E190 to try to improve RASM (flying with fewer empty seats and less reliance on connections), but that would increase CASM. There's not a lot of room for them to raise fares to compensate, since NYC-MSY is pretty competitive. But even if B6 went to the E190 on JFK-MSY, I still think they'd have trouble filling BOS-MSY on a consistent basis -- especially on the low-traffic days -- and there are almost no connections to help fill planes out of BOS.


User currently offlineMSYtristar From United States of America, joined Aug 2005, 6520 posts, RR: 51
Reply 11, posted (7 years 3 months 2 days 7 hours ago) and read 1984 times:

Quoting ScottB (Reply 10):
I'd guess that there's the issue of yields versus CASM on JFK-MSY; they could reduce gauge to the E190 to try to improve RASM (flying with fewer empty seats and less reliance on connections), but that would increase CASM. There's not a lot of room for them to raise fares to compensate, since NYC-MSY is pretty competitive. But even if B6 went to the E190 on JFK-MSY, I still think they'd have trouble filling BOS-MSY on a consistent basis -- especially on the low-traffic days -- and there are almost no connections to help fill planes out of BOS.

I think you're right... I don't think filling a 190 on a daily basis would be possible right now. It would be a perfect route for XE, for example, if they ever started BOS service, with the ERJ-145XLR's. I even think it could be a good Delta Connection route with the E70, and that may not be totally out of the loop down the road due to DL's increasing BOS presence. Unfortunately it seems to be too thin of a market for anything bigger than a 70 seater right now.


User currently onlineSANFan From United States of America, joined Aug 2006, 5344 posts, RR: 15
Reply 12, posted (7 years 3 months 2 days 7 hours ago) and read 1958 times:

Quoting MSYtristar (Reply 3):
and SAN...

The 3Q06 DOT figures place SAN-MSY at 159 O&D pax/day which is not too bad but probably not ready for a n/s yet; WN would be the logical cx to do it and we know how it's going between WN and MSY lately... I would certainly like to see it happen (for the sake of both cities.)

I do agree that B6 would be the expected provider of MSY-BOS service but as Scott so well put it

Quoting ScottB (Reply 8):
B6 may also be depending on some connecting traffic from BOS to make the JFK-MSY flights remain profitable.

bb


User currently offlineMSYtristar From United States of America, joined Aug 2005, 6520 posts, RR: 51
Reply 13, posted (7 years 3 months 2 days 7 hours ago) and read 1947 times:

Quoting SANFan (Reply 12):
The 3Q06 DOT figures place SAN-MSY at 159 O&D pax/day

I wonder how much traffic has declined in the market since Katrina? Maybe when it gets over that 200 mark we'll see a nonstop again.

Quoting SANFan (Reply 12):
I would certainly like to see it happen (for the sake of both cities.)

Likewise....


User currently offlineConcordeBoy From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 14, posted (7 years 3 months 2 days 7 hours ago) and read 1933 times:

Quoting ScottB (Reply 8):
I suspect that part of the problem is that BOS-MSY traffic (as of 06Q3) fell dramatically in the wake of Katrina; it's just barely over half of pre-Katrina levels at relatively modest yields which are less than 2% higher than the pre-Katrina quarter (05Q2).

Can you link me to where you derived these figures? Thnx in advance.


User currently offlineScottB From United States of America, joined Jul 2000, 6707 posts, RR: 32
Reply 15, posted (7 years 3 months 2 days 6 hours ago) and read 1896 times:

Quoting ConcordeBoy (Reply 14):
Can you link me to where you derived these figures? Thnx in advance.

DOT's Consumer Air Fare Report. The tab-separated data tables are:

3Q06: http://ostpxweb.ost.dot.gov/aviation/domfares/tab6063.txt
2Q05: http://ostpxweb.ost.dot.gov/aviation/domfares/tab6052.txt

Actually, I just looked at the 2Q06 numbers -- they're a little bit better than 3Q06 (~15% higher traffic on ~8% higher yields) probably due to seasonality; I assumed that 3Q would be better than 2Q given that the degree of post-disaster recovery ought to increase over time. But even the 2Q06 numbers are around 40% below the 2Q05 numbers for traffic.


User currently offlineConcordeBoy From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 16, posted (7 years 3 months 2 days 5 hours ago) and read 1836 times:

...preciate it  thumbsup 

User currently offlineB752OS From United States of America, joined Dec 2005, 1322 posts, RR: 0
Reply 17, posted (7 years 3 months 2 days 5 hours ago) and read 1824 times:

I wonder if a non-stop flight would create better numbers between BOS-MSY?

User currently offlineConcordeBoy From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 18, posted (7 years 3 months 1 day 11 hours ago) and read 1615 times:

Quoting B752OS (Reply 17):
I wonder if a non-stop flight would create better numbers between BOS-MSY?

Possible, but fare's aren't all the high between the two cities currently... so it wouldn't be through prices stimulation, more along the lines to catering to a specific O&D; which may or may not be there right now as NOLA's worldwide image spirals further down the crapper.


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