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Branson Warns Of Threat To A380 Maker  
User currently offlineStratofortress From United States of America, joined Dec 2005, 178 posts, RR: 1
Posted (7 years 8 months 6 days 19 hours ago) and read 25678 times:

http://news.independent.co.uk/business/news/article2481069.ece

"Sir Richard, whose long-haul airline has placed a $2bn (£1bn) order for six A380s, said he feared the 555-seater aircraft would never sell in sufficient numbers to cover its development costs."


Even a buyer is doubting A380 viability. Are there any credible sources out there that expect A380 to be a financial success?

(Boeing and Airbus are not credible sources in this case because they will be selling their skewed view)


Forever New Frontiers
111 replies: All unread, showing first 25:
 
User currently offlineJetjack74 From United States of America, joined Jul 2003, 7438 posts, RR: 50
Reply 1, posted (7 years 8 months 6 days 19 hours ago) and read 25573 times:
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Well, I think Branson is correct that the profitibility of the A380 is an unattainable dream unless maybe 500 more were ordered. But Branson is most likely speaking out of anger over the fact the A380 should've been well into it's second year of operating rather than still in the test and certification stage.


Made from jets!
User currently offlineWINGS From Portugal, joined May 2005, 2831 posts, RR: 68
Reply 2, posted (7 years 8 months 6 days 19 hours ago) and read 25551 times:

Quoting Stratofortress (Thread starter):
"Sir Richard, whose long-haul airline has placed a $2bn (£1bn) order for six A380s, said he feared the 555-seater aircraft would never sell in sufficient numbers to cover its development costs."


Even a buyer is doubting A380 viability. Are there any credible sources out there that expect A380 to be a financial success?

(Boeing and Airbus are not credible sources in this case because they will be selling their skewed view)

If Sir Richard Branson is so worried about Airbus, why doesn't he place additional A388 orders to help out.  Wink

One has to acknowledge that in doing so he will help provide work for the UK as they manufacture the Wing and Engines that will equip his 6 A388's on order.

Regards,
Wings



Aviation Is A Passion.
User currently offlineToulouse From Switzerland, joined Apr 2005, 2759 posts, RR: 57
Reply 3, posted (7 years 8 months 6 days 19 hours ago) and read 25551 times:

I think these two quotes from the article are also interesting:

"Sir Richard praised the A380, saying it would be a highly efficient aircraft for Virgin, but he questioned whether it would ever pay its way for Airbus. "I think it will be a financial disaster because I can't see how Airbus will ever sell sufficient numbers of the aircraft," the Virgin chairman said."

"He was speaking as Virgin prepares to announce a major new order for wide-bodied aircraft, possibly as early as today. The choice is between the Boeing 787 Dreamliner and the Airbus A350, both of which are twin-engined aircraft."

So he is praising it from an airline perspective as he expects it to be a "highly efficient" aircraft for him.

The second quote is strange, has the 787 order not already been confirmed?



Long live Aer Lingus!
User currently offlineNA From Germany, joined Dec 1999, 10817 posts, RR: 9
Reply 4, posted (7 years 8 months 6 days 19 hours ago) and read 25499 times:

Let it fly first. If it proves to be a fantastic product in service I expect many, many orders still to come. But I do not expect the A380 to become a cash-cow as the 747 has been.

I also think Branson is talking in anger here.


User currently offlineToulouse From Switzerland, joined Apr 2005, 2759 posts, RR: 57
Reply 5, posted (7 years 8 months 6 days 19 hours ago) and read 25462 times:

Quoting Jetjack74 (Reply 1):
Well, I think Branson is correct that the profitibility of the A380 is an unattainable dream unless maybe 500 more were ordered. But Branson is most likely speaking out of anger over the fact the A380 should've been well into it's second year of operating rather than still in the test and certification stage.

I presently tend to agree with you, but hopefully for the good of aviation, over the coming 20 to 30 years maybe we will see Airbus pull in sufficient orders for the A380. This aircraft needs to go into commercial service before I'd expect any/many other airlines to order it, so fingers crossed she'll turn out good in commercial service, and then I don't see why they won't gain the orders they need over it's life-span... that said, and as an Airbus fan, I do have my own doubt over the economic viability of this aircraft for Airbus, yet at least for us aviation fans it's a great a/c just for its huge size and the fact that it is the first ever "all" double-deck civil aircraft.



Long live Aer Lingus!
User currently offlineWINGS From Portugal, joined May 2005, 2831 posts, RR: 68
Reply 6, posted (7 years 8 months 6 days 19 hours ago) and read 25289 times:

It's worth noting that despite the profitability of the A380 program is still rather grey, it is good to note that nearly all A380 customers have systematically praised the A380's performance and targets and all this after the A380 suffered long delays.

Singapore Airlines - Ordered 9 more.
Qantas - Ordered 8 more.
Lufthansa - True 3L/100km plane (plans to order more)
Thai - Keeps A380 order.
EK - World Leader.
Qatar - Plans to order more. etc........................

Regards,
Wings



Aviation Is A Passion.
User currently offlineCygnusChicago From United States of America, joined Mar 2007, 758 posts, RR: 1
Reply 7, posted (7 years 8 months 6 days 19 hours ago) and read 25265 times:

Quoting Jetjack74 (Reply 1):
Well, I think Branson is correct that the profitability of the A380 is an unattainable dream unless maybe 500 more were ordered. But Branson is most likely speaking out of anger over the fact the A380 should've been well into it's second year of operating rather than still in the test and certification stage.

I agree with your view. Hindsight is 20/20. When Airbus was proposing the Superjumbo to airlines in the late 90s, and when Branson signed in the early 2000s, he never once questioned the viability. In fact he was incredibly excited about the opportunity to offer bedrooms and whatnot.

With this report he is simply taking a cheap shot at Airbus while they are down. Maybe didn't offer him A350XWB's at the old A350 price, and that has upset him. Be that what it may, it does seem as though we have entered an era of vocal customer CEO's in the industry. We've had Udver-Hazy, Clark, Choon Seng, and now Branson criticize manufacturers in public.

[Edited 2007-04-24 20:03:55]


If you cannot do the math, your opinion means squat!
User currently offlineMD80Nut From United States of America, joined Jul 2003, 979 posts, RR: 9
Reply 8, posted (7 years 8 months 6 days 19 hours ago) and read 25208 times:

Quoting NA (Reply 4):
Let it fly first. If it proves to be a fantastic product in service I expect many, many orders still to come. But I do not expect the A380 to become a cash-cow as the 747 has been.

I agree. Once it enters service and proves itself in the daily grind of airline operations I believe we'll see more airlines order the A380. That's why I believe it's crucial there are no further delays in getting it into service. I hope everything goes smoothly when Singapore starts commercial service, I want to see the A380 succeed, like I want to see EVERY plane succeed. Big grin

I think reaching the 450-500 frame mark will be a challenge though. But I'd love to be wrong.

Cheers, Ralph



Fly Douglas Jets DC-8 / DC-9 / DC-10 / MD80 / MD11 / MD90 / 717
User currently offlineWestJetYQQ From Canada, joined Jan 2007, 2987 posts, RR: 5
Reply 9, posted (7 years 8 months 6 days 18 hours ago) and read 25031 times:

Quoting NA (Reply 4):
Let it fly first. If it proves to be a fantastic product in service I expect many, many orders still to come. But I do not expect the A380 to become a cash-cow as the 747 has been.

I also think Branson is talking in anger here.



Quoting CygnusChicago (Reply 7):
With this report he is simply taking a cheap shot at Airbus while they are down. Maybe didn't offer him A350XWB's at the old A350 price, and that has upset him.

I would be extremely upset as well, if I had ordered this aircraft and delivery was becoming increasingly delayed. SRB has every right to be upset with Airbus.

However, Mr. Branson is only half correct on his Airbus financial theory. It is very much the truth that Airbus has FAR from enough orders to break even on the A380 project. But, as soon as the first few get to be delivered, and the aircraft gets more of a fair chance to prove itself as an economical, passenger friendly choice for commercial airlines, orders will surely pick-up, and Airbus may be able to dig itself out of this hole it has dug.

Cheers
Carson



Will You Try to Change Things? Use the Power that you have, the Power of a Million new Ideas.
User currently offlineAirFrnt From United States of America, joined Jul 2004, 2830 posts, RR: 42
Reply 10, posted (7 years 8 months 6 days 18 hours ago) and read 24776 times:

Quoting WINGS (Reply 2):
If Sir Richard Branson is so worried about Airbus, why doesn't he place additional A388 orders to help out.

Because he is not suicidal. Or did you miss the fact that a ton of other carriers are about to start competing with him on his bread and butter routes making it much much harder to fill larger planes?

Quoting WINGS (Reply 2):
One has to acknowledge that in doing so he will help provide work for the UK as they manufacture the Wing and Engines that will equip his 6 A388's on order.

Sure, but I suspect Mr. Branson feels that he already gives enough money to Her Majasty's Government, and does not need to subsidize them any further.

Quoting WestJetYQQ (Reply 9):

However, Mr. Branson is only half correct on his Airbus financial theory. It is very much the truth that Airbus has FAR from enough orders to break even on the A380 project. But, as soon as the first few get to be delivered, and the aircraft gets more of a fair chance to prove itself as an economical, passenger friendly choice for commercial airlines, orders will surely pick-up, and Airbus may be able to dig itself out of this hole it has dug.

The business case for the A380 was unrealistic before the A380 took to their air. Now they have had a idle factory line, additional market fragmentation about to occur, a horrible currency imbalance, high fuel costs and two bickering governments on top of everything. Add in Boeing's ability to launch a majority composite frame Y3 with a similar or better CASM advantage over the A380 with a smaller seat count, and the A380 will be done.

The A380 is underwater. It may eventually break the surface, but it will never achieve the heights that it ought to have to justify the billions of dollars in investment Airbus spent in it. It already has cost Airbus it's lead in the Airline market. But hey, don't take my word for it, listen to Mr. Branson, or Mr. Udvar-Hazey, or Boyd, or Aboulafia.


User currently offlineIkramerica From United States of America, joined May 2005, 21588 posts, RR: 59
Reply 11, posted (7 years 8 months 6 days 18 hours ago) and read 24662 times:

Quoting Stratofortress (Thread starter):
"Sir Richard, whose long-haul airline has placed a $2bn (£1bn) order for six A380s, said he feared the 555-seater aircraft would never sell in sufficient numbers to cover its development costs."



Quoting Toulouse (Reply 3):
So he is praising it from an airline perspective as he expects it to be a "highly efficient" aircraft for him.

Well, between these views and the whole PER/HNL - London thing all being exactly what I've been saying, I've officially been outed...  Sad

Yes, I am SRB! Big grin



Of all the things to worry about... the Wookie has no pants.
User currently offlineGlideslope From United States of America, joined May 2004, 1629 posts, RR: 0
Reply 12, posted (7 years 8 months 6 days 17 hours ago) and read 24603 times:

Quoting NA (Reply 4):
I also think Branson is talking in anger here.

LOL, who is not these days? Sir Richard is going to cancel and grab some 748's. Watch closely.



To know your Enemy, you must become your Enemy.” Sun Tzu
User currently offlineAndesSMF From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 13, posted (7 years 8 months 6 days 17 hours ago) and read 24496 times:

There is a big difference in ROI between delivering 500 airframes in 10 years as opposed to 20 years. I have no doubt that the A380 will fly successfully in a commercial role.

However, the A380 freighter market is not there, at least for now, and we might not be able to figure out the list of airlines that could possibly order the A380, and what that final number would be.


User currently offlineIkramerica From United States of America, joined May 2005, 21588 posts, RR: 59
Reply 14, posted (7 years 8 months 6 days 17 hours ago) and read 24496 times:

Quoting Glideslope (Reply 12):
LOL, who is not these days? Sir Richard is going to cancel and grab some 748's. Watch closely.

Well, 6 A380s doesn't replace 13 744s.

Expect him to order 8 748is, and then see what happens, keeping his 2014 A380 deliveries on the table for a while. After all, SQ may want them...  Wink



Of all the things to worry about... the Wookie has no pants.
User currently offlineCygnusChicago From United States of America, joined Mar 2007, 758 posts, RR: 1
Reply 15, posted (7 years 8 months 6 days 17 hours ago) and read 24249 times:

Quoting AirFrnt (Reply 10):
The A380 is underwater... . It already has cost Airbus it's lead in the Airline market.

It's not the A380 that cost Airbus the lead in the Airline market. The lead was lost because they did not have a competitive response to the 787. That happened in turn, due to the fact that they'd finished the launch of the A340-500/600 and couldn't admit that it was possible to build a plane substantially more efficient than than the A330. Nothing to do with the A380 whatsoever.

As to the Superjumbo - yes, currently it does not look like it will break even. While many argue it was a mistake - and from a pure single project ROI point of view it was - it still is a measure of success. Those 142 orders (or whatever the current count is) would have meant at least 142 additional 747 or 777 orders for Boeing. In addition, it is forcing Boeing to divert resources to the 747-800, which like the A350, is a plane they don't really want to have to build.



If you cannot do the math, your opinion means squat!
User currently offlineDAYflyer From United States of America, joined Sep 2004, 3807 posts, RR: 3
Reply 16, posted (7 years 8 months 6 days 17 hours ago) and read 24103 times:

Quoting WINGS (Reply 2):
If Sir Richard Branson is so worried about Airbus, why doesn't he place additional A388 orders to help out.

Because he perhaps doesn't want to be seen throwing good money after bad?  stirthepot 

Quoting AirFrnt (Reply 10):
The business case for the A380 was unrealistic before the A380 took to their air. Now they have had a idle factory line, additional market fragmentation about to occur, a horrible currency imbalance, high fuel costs and two bickering governments on top of everything. Add in Boeing's ability to launch a majority composite frame Y3 with a similar or better CASM advantage over the A380 with a smaller seat count, and the A380 will be done.

Well, I find it increasingly hard to argue with this. I will say however, that until the Y3 appears, the A-380 may yet see break even, even if only in about 3-4 liveries that ever place substantial orders. I dont think there will ever be a 380-900.



One Nation Under God
User currently offlineFlysherwood From United States of America, joined Jul 2006, 1115 posts, RR: 0
Reply 17, posted (7 years 8 months 6 days 17 hours ago) and read 24081 times:

Quoting CygnusChicago (Reply 7):
Be that what it may, it does seem as though we have entered an era of vocal customer CEO's in the industry. We've had Udver-Hazy, Clark, Choon Seng, and now Branson criticize manufacturers in public.

The CEO's you sight have criticized Airbus in public. I haven't heard them do the same about Boeing. I do not think any of the criticism is aimed at the quality of the product or the product itself. It is aimed at some of the ineptness of the top management of Airbus in the past and present.

Quoting CygnusChicago (Reply 7):
With this report he is simply taking a cheap shot at Airbus while they are down.

Have you ever heard Mr. Leahy act humbly in public about the situation that he put his customers in? If you listen to what he says, he still acts like Airbus management is doing a hell of a good job! Maybe Mr. Branson doesn't like the arrogance of Airbus management. I do not see where it is a cheap shot. When management screws up like they did with Airbus, they need to hear this kinds of criticism in order to ensure the listing ship is righted. Otherwise... Sad


User currently offlineFlysherwood From United States of America, joined Jul 2006, 1115 posts, RR: 0
Reply 18, posted (7 years 8 months 6 days 16 hours ago) and read 23447 times:

Quoting CygnusChicago (Reply 15):
Those 142 orders (or whatever the current count is) would have meant at least 142 additional 747 or 777 orders for Boeing.

I am not sure spending $15billion to keep customers from ordering a competitors product can be measured a success in any way, shape or form.

Quoting CygnusChicago (Reply 15):
In addition, it is forcing Boeing to divert resources to the 747-800, which like the A350, is a plane they don't really want to have to build.

If by now, Airbus has not figured out that the A350XWB is the airplane that they absolutely have to build and to build right, then the game is OVER!!! Are you really proposing that the A350XWB is only being built because they have to? The future of Airbus is at stake with the A350XWB!!!  Angry


User currently offlineTrent900 From United Kingdom, joined Dec 2003, 541 posts, RR: 0
Reply 19, posted (7 years 8 months 6 days 16 hours ago) and read 22814 times:

Quoting Jetjack74 (Reply 1):
But Branson is most likely speaking out of anger over the fact the A380 should've been well into it's second year of operating rather than still in the test and certification stage.

Considering it was VS who pushed their EIS date back this is a strange thing to say.

D.


User currently offlineAndesSMF From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 20, posted (7 years 8 months 6 days 16 hours ago) and read 22755 times:

Quoting Flysherwood (Reply 18):
Quoting CygnusChicago (Reply 15):
Those 142 orders (or whatever the current count is) would have meant at least 142 additional 747 or 777 orders for Boeing.

I am not sure spending $15billion to keep customers from ordering a competitors product can be measured a success in any way, shape or form.

81 orders + 54 commitments for the 748 = 135 possible total orders in less than two years.

A380F is not happening in the near future.

I don't believe Boeing is losing too much sleep over the A380 at the moment.


User currently offlineCygnusChicago From United States of America, joined Mar 2007, 758 posts, RR: 1
Reply 21, posted (7 years 8 months 6 days 16 hours ago) and read 22630 times:

Quoting Flysherwood (Reply 17):
The CEO's you sight have criticized Airbus in public. I haven't heard them do the same about Boeing

You're incorrect on that. One of the four - Choon Seng - gave the 748i quite a viscious public lashing. I don't raise the point of outspoken CEO's to provide fodder to partisan A vs. B arguments. The point is simply that Airline CEOs are becoming more publicly critical of manufacturers and there offerings.



If you cannot do the math, your opinion means squat!
User currently offlineAirSpare From United States of America, joined Jun 2006, 589 posts, RR: 6
Reply 22, posted (7 years 8 months 6 days 16 hours ago) and read 22579 times:

From the article-"Sir Richard said it was possiblethe crops could be grown in Africa, "

Cool, he is going to save displaced persons to grow jet fuel, saving the world and Miami too, way to go dude.

Actually, the article is interesting as you have rick talking about A almost like a financial analyst. If he said these things on any company, the stock would have taken a 3% hit.



Get someone else for your hero worship fetish
User currently offline474218 From United States of America, joined Oct 2005, 6340 posts, RR: 9
Reply 23, posted (7 years 8 months 6 days 16 hours ago) and read 22278 times:

Quoting CygnusChicago (Reply 7):
With this report he is simply taking a cheap shot at Airbus while they are down.

Why is this a "cheap shot" is he not in titled to his opinion? No matter what you think of Sir Richard, he does know business and in his opinion the A380 will not sell enough airframes for turn a profit, hardly a "cheap shot".

Quoting MD80Nut (Reply 8):
I think reaching the 450-500 frame mark will be a challenge though. But I'd love to be wrong.

Airbus has publicly stated they have to sell 420 A380 before they will start making a profit on the program, so I tend to agree with Sir Richard the A380 will be a financial disaster to Airbus.


User currently offlineRedFlyer From United States of America, joined Feb 2005, 4376 posts, RR: 28
Reply 24, posted (7 years 8 months 6 days 15 hours ago) and read 22151 times:

Quoting WINGS (Reply 6):
it is good to note that nearly all A380 customers have systematically praised the A380's performance and targets and all this after the A380 suffered long delays.

Not trying to be disrespectful, but the way you wrote your comment, you make it sound as though the one (performance) is tied into the other (delay). Are they not exclusive of each other?

Quoting WestJetYQQ (Reply 9):
But, as soon as the first few get to be delivered, and the aircraft gets more of a fair chance to prove itself as an economical, passenger friendly choice for commercial airlines, orders will surely pick-up, and Airbus may be able to dig itself out of this hole it has dug.

I think that is a common misperception; that once it's in service the orders will pick-up. While they may pick up some, the dearth in orders is more likely a result of other factors, such as lack of demand (orders for the A380 dwindled to a trickle within the first 3 years after launch). And that goes to the heart of what a lot of people have said; that the A380's business case is simply too weak.

Quoting AirFrnt (Reply 10):
The business case for the A380 was unrealistic before the A380 took to their air. Now they have had a idle factory line, additional market fragmentation about to occur, a horrible currency imbalance, high fuel costs and two bickering governments on top of everything. Add in Boeing's ability to launch a majority composite frame Y3 with a similar or better CASM advantage over the A380 with a smaller seat count, and the A380 will be done.

 checkmark 



My other home is a Piper Cherokee 180C
25 AirFrnt : Not sure where to start here. Both the 744 and the 777 are well past break even, so it would have been gravy for Boeing. Boeing is being forced into
26 Tootallsd : In point of fact, it would have been cheaper to buy 748is, slap an Airbus 4 Engines 4 Long Haul Logo on them and GIVE them to the A380 customers than
27 CygnusChicago : Depends on what you're measuring success by. Airbus has always been concerned by the bundling effect that was costing them A32X and A330 orders. They
28 JAAlbert : Why do the airlines care whether or not Airbus makes a profit on the 380? The plane appears to meet, or even exceed, the requirements of a small numbe
29 CygnusChicago : It would have been an insightful comment from a keen businessman if he had said this four or six years ago. Then we could praise his foresight. Inste
30 JAL : While it's too early to speculate on the viability of the A380, one has to wonder given the lack of new customers recently. Both ANA and JAL have said
31 BigJKU : I would dare to say they were not forced into as opposed to they sort of fell into the opportunity. The A380 was struggling and they saw an opportuni
32 DeltaDC9 : With regard to the 748 you are 110% wrong. The 747 carries 50% of all air freight and with 250 flying, there is nothing to replace it but the 748 and
33 Post contains images Flysherwood : They have lost $6 billion in the process of being so SUCCESSFUL. Drastically reduced the 747 margin? With a totally new design? The 747 has made mone
34 XT6Wagon : because it has hurt them directly in the fact that Airbus instead of developing the planes they need, have instead blown ALL the progress they have m
35 Flysherwood : No manufacturer thinks that they can sit still and not respond to innovation! If they did, they would be finished. You are actually missing the point
36 VV701 : The Virgin empire of around 140 different companies has its ultimate home not in the UK but the Virgin Islands. At the time of the 'dirty tricks' all
37 AndesSMF : Investors in the company.
38 Post contains images Keesje : Well lets look: - more then 1400 747 were sold in 40 years, despite doom scenarios in 1969-70. - 600 of them will have to be replaced in the next 20
39 Post contains images Ncelhr : Nobody can predict what the state of affairs will be in 10 year's time. Whilst I don't see ANA or JAL purchasing A380s since they are part of the JAD
40 Post contains images Flysherwood : As they say "...hope springs eternal!"
41 Curmudgeon : Against what competition though? The 747 was remarkable for its range as well as its size, and was replacing 707/DC-8 aircraft, and the L-1011 and DC
42 EMBQA : OK... so I said the same thing a few weeks back and was given a two week vacation by the moderators...!! Sir Richard... now its your turn...!!
43 ChinaClipper40 : Not really. The late 1940s French-manufactured Breguet 763 "Deux Ponts" civil airliner holds fair claim to that distinction, I believe. It carried 59
44 XT6Wagon : Oh yes, Boeing very much doesn't want Airbus to die. They just want to kick Airbus into a corner and leave it there. Killing Airbus leaves them open
45 Blackbird1331 : If it is not going to sell, then why buy it? To support it in the future will cost an arm and a leg, and who will buy it used? And what would it cost
46 HighFlyer9790 : This is a tough one. people will jump and say VS wil take the 747-8I, but i say they MAY cancel their A380 order..foggy.
47 CygnusChicago : So which is it - they should have posponed it further than late 2007 (according to the first part of your post), or they should have introduced it so
48 Glideslope : How could that be possible? It must be at or above 500 frames by now? They will never sell that with the 380F DOA.
49 777ER : We knew about this order, most likly before any media did Yes, but that 600 will be shared among the B787/A350, B773/A346, B748/A380. Not all airline
50 JAAlbert : In the late 1990s -- and even into the early 2000s -- I was reading articles touting the ascension of Airbus and the death of Boeing. I remember read
51 Post contains images Douwd20 : One need only look at the 787 order book. It's not even in service and has been a runaway success. However the 777 was not a runaway success until ye
52 Aminobwana : A) Reply 1, posted Wed Apr 25 2007 03:42:06 your local time (4 hours 11 minutes 53 secs ago) and read 4705 times: Well, I think Branson is correct tha
53 BN727 : This is sad news for Airbus. I was hoping a great success for the A380 It's gonna be a great airplane when finished. The unrealist deadline for promis
54 XT6Wagon : No doubt, Also to clarify.. I wasn't speaking so much in terms of what will happen, but how Boeing would like events to take shape. Right now I think
55 Ken777 : I'm in the group that believes the 380 will be a very good airplane, but I worry about its potential to break even, Airbus has simply been hit with to
56 AndesSMF : But as I repeated before, the question is WHERE it is going to rise. Most of the people in developed countries that can fly already fly, and the airl
57 PlanenutzTB : Thanks for making a case for the future success of the Boeing 748i.
58 Post contains images Ikramerica : Not with 747s or A380s. that's the upper end, and I doubt the current A388 will be selling over a twenty year period, which means they will have to a
59 Rampart : This sort of statement crops up regularly. Apart from being irrelevant to the discussion, it forgets a number of flying boats, the Boeing Stratocruis
60 Keesje : Branson yesterday said that Virgin remained firmly committed to its existing order for six A380s. Is it to early to say the 747-8i, despite Boeing re
61 Post contains images Astuteman : Prediction:- A380F production will prolong the A380 programme 5-10 years beyond the pax version production (in the end).... (Has he gone mad????? ) E
62 ZKSUJ : Could not agree more except to say that the 748 will be in the same league as the 787/350 in terms of RVSM. I can see many airlines operating the 748
63 Ferengi80 : I always said from the original inception of the A3XX idea, that it would become another Spruce Goose. I for one wouldn't want to fly in anything so b
64 Curmudgeon : As always, its a pleasure to see Astuteman weigh in on these deliberations: Yes, there are benefits to sheer size and volume which, used intelligently
65 Rwylie77 : What SRB is doing is purely a dig at Airbus for some unclear motive - maybe Boeing offered an additional discount on the 787's for him to make those c
66 BrianDromey : Good Point. If I were aibus I would attack the narrow body market. A superior A318/A319 replacement (lighter, etc) and a superior A320/A321 replaceme
67 SeJoWa : As long as you continue to post nice pics so we don't forget what we're here for, why not. I must admit that seing so much mass in the air is mightil
68 BigJKU : I would say between 0 and 20 tops. The only two companies interested in the plane for cargo would be package movers and they both just ordered new Bo
69 SSTsomeday : I don't see what Sir RIchard gets out of this public statement, since he will supposedly be operating the bird. Even if he believes he is correct (wh
70 Post contains images Flysherwood : I would imagine that the lobbyists that work for Boeing gave their $.02 worth regarding this. Because Boeing needs SRB to slam the A380 for them...?
71 Flysherwood : I believe that he is trying to tell the upper management of Airbus to pull their heads out of their rear ends!!! He is doing so because as an owner o
72 DAYflyer : The A-380 is nowhere near 500 orders. It is more like 175 firm IIRC.
73 BrianDromey : I would assume that most commercial airliners of teh future will be CRFP. I was assuming an A320 family replacement from Airbus would be as well. IIR
74 B777A340Fan : Viability, to me, is two-folds: financial and efficiency. The A380 may not be a financial success at the present time, but I think what RB was referri
75 Ikramerica : I think Boeing and Airbus are both very surprised that nobody is buying VLAs at all for pax service. Other than some follow ons for A388 launch custo
76 Post contains links BoomBoom : Well, the 748i outsold the A380 last year. What does that tell you? And the 748F drove the A380F out of the market. All this for 1/4 the development
77 Flysherwood : Actually on another thread someone placed an article from Flight magazine wherein John Leahy was slamming Boeing execs for predicting a possible 500
78 AndesSMF : I love predictions by industry insiders! In my decades of following the industry, I don't recall any of them being correct! 1. The 747 was designed as
79 Flysherwood : You are correct. SRB's statements is meant in no way to put down the A380 as an aircraft. It is meant to slap the management of Airbus about the real
80 Rwylie77 : Yes exactly - Open Skies - even more airlines are wanting to fly into Heathrow or operate flights to the US from LHR. Delta, Continental, US and BMI
81 Post contains images Flysherwood : Just because slots are limited doesn't mean you can FILL up 555 seats on an aircraft EVERYDAY!!!
82 Rwylie77 : Read my original post. No I agree, not today - but in 20 years time when there are 3 x as many people flying and Heathrow's growth and other London a
83 BoomBoom : If the A380 is twenty years too early, it was a hugh mistake for Airbus to try to introduce it now. You just have to reduce a few A320s, 737s and sma
84 Flysherwood : Open Skies means that you will NOT have to course through London to get your destination. And if you do from say,Barcelona to New York, although with
85 Ikramerica : No, they are way ABOVE that number. Like I said, the 600-700 before first FLIGHT is a surprise. They thought they could get 500 orders by EIS, one ye
86 AndesSMF : Again, the growth in developed countries will only go up with the population growth. There will NOT be 3X more people travelling there, as those who
87 Ncelhr : Think Europe. Think Asia. 35m people over an area as large as California is nothing.
88 Post contains images Flysherwood : OK. JAPAN. The most slot restricted airport in Asia is NRT. The two main Japanese Airlines have already stated that they do NOT plan to purchase the
89 Post contains images Flysherwood : OK. The Netherlands. AMS is the second or third largest hub in Europe. What does it tell you when KLM hasn't ordered the A380. Out of all of their 74
90 Post contains images Flysherwood : It is so BAD when sales figures are so far off targer!!!
91 AndesSMF : Think Ryanair, AirAsia, and all the other airlines that have purchased massive amounts of single aisle planes in the last decade.
92 Rwylie77 : 3 x are the estimates of growth in the UK and government estimates that Heathrow should prepare it's capacity for. It will take 10 years just to get
93 SEPilot : It's not just the point to point argument; it's the history of the last 12 years showing declining use of VLA's. Air traffic has been growing dramati
94 Post contains images Flysherwood : How much of the traffic that passes through Heathrow actually stay in London? How many are transit passengers of BA or VS or whoever to another desti
95 Post contains images WingedMigrator : Boeing expects VLA deliveries to make up 10% by value of the entire civil airliner market over the next 20 years. Ten percent of an enormous number i
96 RedFlyer : If the CMO is ~$2 trillion, which is the approximate number I've read in the past, 10% of that adds up to $200 billion. 1100 airframes would equate t
97 XT6Wagon : I think its safe to say that the main reason Boeings market forecast is going up is the unexpected growth of new build 748F being ordered. I think the
98 Post contains links and images EnviroTO : The argument for the A380 being necessary due to slot restricted airports ignores the fact that (a) these airports are hub and spoke, and (b) most slo
99 SEPilot : I have been saying pretty much the same on this forum for some time. The real secret of the 747's longevity has been the fact that it was designed fr
100 Post contains links BoomBoom : http://www.aero-news.net/index.cfm?C...7d2aba-b01f-4021-9447-6028ca32503c
101 Post contains images Flysherwood : Ouch!!! I have noticed that SQ has not confirmed the purchase of the XWB I wonder if they have the same feelings that SRB talked about here. If QR rea
102 TWA1011 : I can't fathom that Boeing would ever build an aircraft because they had to, considering they have produced over 1,000 frames for every jetliner that
103 XT6Wagon : Its not so much that the 747 is good at cargo, as that the A380 is just terrible at it. Only thing worse is a A340 conversion.
104 SEPilot : What's wrong with the A340 conversion? And as to the 747, Joe Sutter was very concerned from day one that the 747 be as good a freighter as he could
105 Ikramerica : No, some people ignore reality and tow the Airbus sales pitch because if they don't the A380 never made sense to begin with. And I am very tired of "
106 Flyorski : That sounds like a good plan to me! Airbus may be secretly working on such a thing even as we speak.......... I think in a few years a third major ma
107 Ikramerica : Selling the C330 and C320 series throughout Asia, no doubt...
108 CygnusChicago : I have no doubt that Airbus is already well along the way with the A320RS. However, this progress will be more in aerodynamics, materials, electronic
109 Post contains images Revelation : I always try to use direct flights from regional airport to regional airport. It's easy enough to do on my dime, but when I fly on my company's dime,
110 BoomBoom : What about Emirates?
111 JetJeanes : It will be another concorde. Just manufactuering a few for elite travel
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